Sinica Podcast: Finbarr Bermingham of the SCMP on Nexperia, Export Controls, and Europe's Impossible Position

Host: Kaiser Kuo
Guest: Finbarr Bermingham, Brussels-based Europe Correspondent, South China Morning Post
Date: November 20, 2025

Overview

This episode dives into the dramatic Nexperia dispute—a flashpoint that reveals the vulnerabilities and tensions at the heart of Europe’s position between the U.S. and China in the global semiconductor supply chain competition. Kaiser Kuo and Finbarr Bermingham unravel the complex web of geopolitics, industrial policy, supply chain security, and transatlantic (and transpacific) pressure, focusing on how Europe, particularly the Netherlands, has struggled to maintain industrial sovereignty amid U.S. export controls and Chinese integration in key technologies.

Episode Structure & Key Discussion Points

1. The Nexperia Dispute: The Basics and Its Explosion [(00:09)-(03:57)]

• Background: Nexperia, a Dutch-headquartered supplier of foundational semiconductors (not high-performance chips, but essentials for automotive and industrial electronics), became a wholly-owned subsidiary of China's Wingtech in 2019. The acquisition was initially uncontroversial.
• Geopolitical Shifts: By late 2025, U.S. pressure via expanded export controls (the "affiliate rule") and European anxiety about tech dependency trigger a crisis.
• Dutch Government Action: Invokes emergency powers under the Goods Availability Act to take temporary control of Nexperia and suspend the Chinese CEO.
• Chinese Retaliation: Beijing restricts exports of Nexperia chips from Chinese plants, hitting European supply chains and leading to emergency diplomacy.

2. Beyond Headlines: The Real Story Behind Europe's Move [(03:59)-(08:47)]

• Finbarr’s Take: The situation has no clear good guys or winners. Multiple "truths" shaped the outcome:

  • Dutch Concerns: Long-running anxieties about company governance and state-linked Chinese ownership.
  • U.S. Pressure: Shadowed all developments—pressure to remove Chinese management was “absolutely incredible” in its frankness.
  • Quote (Finbarr, on U.S. officials):

    "Divestment takes time. But the fact that the company’s Chinese CEO is still the same Chinese owner is problematic." [(08:47)]

• Timeline Nuances: Dutch government seized the company Sept. 30, followed by a court-ordered CEO suspension Oct. 7. The U.S. had warned of the affiliate rule earlier in the year.

3. U.S. Influence, Dutch Autonomy & Industrial Fears [(08:47)-(13:44)]

• Was it U.S. Duress?

  • Official Dutch line is they acted autonomously, but difficult to disentangle from American arm-twisting.
  • Genuine worries about "know-how" transfer: Potential relocation of production from Hamburg to China, threatening automotive supply-chain security.
  • Finbarr:

    “Nextperia makes something like 100 billion chips a year... not the sexy high-end chips, but the bread and butter of automotive.”

• No Good Options for the Dutch:

  • "We had very poor options. No good options. We were damned if we did, damned if we didn’t, and damned anyway."—Dutch diplomat [(12:34)]
  • Economy Minister Carimans told the Guardian he has “no regrets” and would do it again, a sentiment met with disbelief even by European business leaders.

4. The Goods Availability Act & Legal Improvisation [(14:29)-(16:05)]

• Obscure law from the 1930s/1950s, never used before, invoked to assume control.
• Speculation that the Dutch government could have waited for courts to act—Finbarr suggests the political calculus was complicated by Dutch election season.
• Despite possible incentives to blame the U.S., Dutch officials “go to great lengths” to emphasize independence.

5. Management Strife, Asset Shifts, and Chinese Retaliation [(17:11)-(20:53)]

• Chinese CEO's Actions: Evidence surfaced that CEO Zhang stopped negotiations after Wingtech hit the U.S. entity list; asset transfers may have been defensive, not malicious.
• Beijing’s Retaliation: October 4, MOFCOM imposed export controls on Nexperia’s China-packaged chips, only allowing civilian shipments with licenses after further diplomatic thaw.

6. Policy Lessons and Shifting European Attitudes [(21:25)-(29:22)]

• Impact on EU Policy: The Nexperia saga is now a poster case for “derisking” and inbound investment screening.

  • Lessons: Deal “wouldn’t happen today”; prospective Chinese tech investments now face stiffer scrutiny.
  • “There’s an overcapacity in wake-up calls in Europe”—Finbarr, referencing successive crises shifting Europe’s approach.
  • Diversification urgency: Officials now scramble to map supply chains, seek alternatives, realize structural weaknesses.

• European Fragmentation:

  • No unified line: Germany, France, Spain, Hungary, Baltics, and others have unique interests and political positions.
  • “When it comes to dealing with the major powers of the world, the European idea of unity crumbles.” [(26:13)]
  • Pro-China (Hungary, Slovakia, Spain), industry-driven (Germany), aggressive on trade defense (France), hawkish (Baltics, Lithuania, Czechia).
  • “General rule of thumb: the closer you get to Russia, the more pushback there is against China.” [(28:22)]

7. Germany’s Role and Diplomatic Dynamics [(29:39)-(32:36)]

• Germany’s Behind-the-Scenes Influence?
  • Some mediation efforts, but limited direct impact on the Nexperia dispute.
  • Ultimately, “not quite clear that any European actor had a major role to play here” in resolving the crisis—suggests superpower rivalry swept Europe along.

8. The Busan Summit and Superpower Rivalry [(32:36)-(34:22)]

• The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan (APEC side event) may not have directly resolved Nexperia, but diplomatic thaw afterward coincides with China pausing some export restrictions and the U.S. shelving the affiliate rule.
• Europe’s fate: “We keep getting swept up in the superpower rivalry.”

9. What Comes Next? Europe's Toolkits and Chilling Effects [(34:22)-(37:01)]

• Will the Goods Availability Act or similar legal tricks become templates? Finbarr thinks probably not; the backlash and chaos are major deterrents.
• The story is a Rorschach test:
  • “Whatever your views… they will be confirmed.”
  • China’s rapid, forceful response will “chill” similar interventions in the future.

10. Chinese Perceptions & Future of Investment [(37:01)-(40:28)]

• Chinese Firms’ Reaction: Discouraged but pragmatic—Europe remains open compared to the U.S., but specific sectors may see more wariness.
• Ongoing trade & integration persists, though “selective closure” is creeping in (e.g., ‘Buy Europe’ policies).
• This may be the exception, not the new norm—at least for now.

11. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Finbarr, reflecting on Dutch options:

  "We had very poor options here. We were damned if we did, damned if we didn't, and damned anyway..." (12:34)

• On the legal scramble:

  "Somebody obviously had to rake through the legal archives and figure out what options they had available... it’s not like this thing’s been sitting on the tip of everybody’s lips forever." (14:46)

• On Europe's predicament:

  "When it comes to dealing with the major powers of the world, the European idea of unity crumbles." (26:13)

• On Europe's repeated shocks:

  "In Europe, they have an overcapacity in wake-up calls because from every year that I’ve been here, there’s been a wake up call about something else..." (23:00)

12. Scene-Setting: Europe China Forum Aftermath [(40:57)-(42:32)]

• At a major think tank event, Finbarr observes new, deliberate politeness between Chinese and European interlocutors – "a reflection of the horrible position that Europe is in," indicating de-escalatory mood after crisis.

• Kaiser’s Comparison:

  "It's kind of how spouses talk to one another... after a big blow up. Nobody wants that again." (42:32)

13. Paying It Forward & Recommendations [(43:13)-(49:47)]

• Shoutouts:

  • Jui Sim (SCMP, Beijing: diplomacy),
  • Coco Fung (SCMP, Guangdong: tech, Nexperia reporting),
  • Krishbury Razdan (SCMP, NA: US-China, Chinese-American stories),
  • Senso Hofsted (Dutch analyst, invaluable coverage of Nexperia in Dutch).

• Recommended Reading:

  • Chokepoints by Edward Fishman (“Every policymaker in Brussels is reading it”).
  • Underground Empire by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman (on weaponized economic interdependence).
  • John Delury’s essay What China Wants from Europe (Engelsberg Ideas): a bracing reality check on how peripheral Europe is to Beijing.

• Kaiser’s Lighthearted Pick:

  • French two-part film adaptation The Three Musketeers: D’Artagnan and Milady (Amazon Prime): “Best fight scene I have seen in recent memory.”

FINAL IMPRESSIONS

Tone & Takeaway

• The episode is rich in detail, candid in its tone, and underscores both the complexity and the fundamental dilemmas facing Europe as it is tugged between U.S. strategic interests and the practical realities of Chinese economic integration.
• The Nexperia crisis is presented as a case study in modern geopolitical flux: there are no easy answers, only messy improvisations and lessons for the next phase of Europe's industrial and diplomatic posture.

Suggested Key Listening Timestamps:

• [04:34] – Finbarr begins scene-setting and details court actions
• [12:34] – "We had very poor options..." Dutch policymaker quote
• [14:29] – Deep dive on the Goods Availability Act
• [22:16] – Policy lessons and impact on future Chinese investments
• [26:13] – European fragmentation exposed
• [33:06] – Superpower rivalry as context for Nexperia strife
• [37:01] – Impact on Chinese perceptions and possible chilling effects
• [40:57] – Scene at the Europe China Forum
• [43:13] – Paying It Forward (rising journalists and analysts)
• [45:32] – Book and essay recommendations

For listeners seeking the essential details and insights from this critical episode, this summary should serve as an authoritative guide.