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Kaiser Guo
Welcome to the Seneca Podcast, the weekly discussion of current affairs in China. In this program, we look at books, ideas, new research, intellectual currents and cultural trends that can help us better understand what's happening in China's politics, foreign relations, economics and society. Join me each week for in depth conversations that shed more light and bring less heat to how we think and talk about China. I'm Kaiser Guo, coming to you this week from my home in Beijing. Sinica is supported this year by the center for East Asian Studies at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, a national resource center for the study of East Asia. The Seneca Podcast is and will remain free. But but listeners, if you value my work and would like to see me continue doing it, please support Sinica by becoming a paying subscriber@cinecapodcast.com your subscription helps me continue to bring you these conversations as we record this episode. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is wrapping up his fourth visit to China in four years, and this one may be the most consequential yet. It comes at a moment when Spain has emerged, almost improbably, as the most outspoken voice in all of Europe challenging the direction of American foreign policy. Just weeks before this trip, Spain took the extraordinary step of closing its airspace to US Military aircraft involved in the war in Iran and denied Washington the use of the Rota and moron military bases in southern Spain. Trump threatened to cut off trade with Madrid, Secretary of State Rubio accused Spanish leaders of bragging about it, and Prime Minister Sanchez fired back with one of the great rejoinders of this young the government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket. This is the backdrop against which Sanchez flew to Beijing on Monday. At Tsinghua University, he delivered a speech defending multilateralism, calling the EU trade deficit unsustainable, and, to the astonishment of some, describing Spain as a country that recognizes China is rebuilding its greatness and is destined to play a vital role in the future. He called on Beijing to do more to push the adherence to international law and to end conflicts in Lebanon, Iran, Gaza and Ukraine, especially now that the United States has decided to withdraw from many of these fronts, he said. He even called on Western countries to relinquish their participation quotas at international institutions in favor of countries of the global South. On Tuesday, Sanchez met with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great hall of the People, where Xi greeted his guest with suitably apocalyptic language. The international order is crumbling into disarray, xi said, adding that both China and Spain are nations of principle and integrity and should cooperate closely to resist any regression toward the law of the jungle. Later, Sanchez met with NPC Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Liji and Premier Li Qiang and a set of 13 I've also heard 15 bilateral agreements were signed on education, technology, sports and cultural exchange. Sanchez also visited Xiaomi, the Beijing headquartered tech company, and met with its founder Lei Jun. He test drove one of their very nice EVs and checked out their factory automation. This visit caps an astonishing year in Spain China relations. King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia paid a state visit to China last November, the first by a Spanish monarch and I think 18 years. Chinese investment in Spain surged from 149 million euros in 2024 to 643 million in 2025. Bilateral goods trade exceeded 55 billion last year, up nearly 10%. And yet the trade deficit keeps widening. China now accounts for a staggering 74% of Spain's total trade gap. So what is Sanchez actually up to? Is this a sophisticated bid for strategic autonomy, a bid for a Spanish brand of leverage between Washington and Beijing? Or is it, as one analyst put it, an increasingly one sided and unbalanced pilgrimage? How does Spain's China gambit sit with Brussels, which is watched uneasily as Sanchez undercut the EU's position on EV tariffs and cozied up to Beijing while acting, as some would have it, as a self appointed ambassador for Europe? And what does this all tell us about the broader debate inside Europe over how to navigate between great powers? To help us make sense of all of this, I am joined by Mario Esteban Rodriguez, who is full professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid, where he directs the center for East Asian Studies and is Senior Fellow at the Elcano Royal Institute, Spain's research preeminent international affairs think tank. Mario has served as an expert for the European Commission, the European Parliament and Spain's own Ministries of Foreign affairs and Defense. He has been a visiting professor at Beijing's Foreign Studies University and a visiting researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He is the author or editor of several important books, including most recently China's Vertical Multilateralism and the Global south, published by Routledge just this year, and China and International Evidence from the Belt and Road Initiative. He also happens to be the scholar most frequently quoted in Spanish and European media coverage of Spain China relations, and indeed was quoted in the Chinese media and in La Razon coverage of this very trip. Mario comes on the strong recommendation of a dear friend of mine here in Beijing, a Spanish diplomat who had the pleasure of being present at Prime Minister Sanchez's Tsinghua speech and who thought Mario would be exactly the right person to help us understand what Spain is doing and what it means for Europe. I think just from that bio I just presented, you would agree that my friend Julio was absolutely right. Mario Esteban, welcome to Seneca.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Thank you so much, Kaiser, for the invitation. It's a real pleasure to be in your podcast.
Kaiser Guo
It's wonderful to have you. So let me jump right in and start with the big picture. So Pedro Sanchez has now visited China four times in four years. No other current European leader comes close to that level of frequency. How would you characterize his overall approach to China? What is driving that?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, I think that Prime Minister Sanchez, he's being very candid himself in explaining that. I think we can characterize his strategy mainly by two things. One is pragmatism. He's been very, very pragmatic in his approach to China. He avoids this kind of idealistic or wishful thinking narratives about China, the global order. He thinks that China is a highly successful and powerful authoritarian system with a model of state capitalism. This creates clear challenges, of course, the US Always talking about that, but it also generates significant opportunities, and not only in socioeconomic terms, but also when we talk about addressing the main challenges for the international community, things like climate change, governance and proliferations. So he has this kind of pragmatic approach. And also this is a key issue. This is a very complex relationship and he's not shy in engaging in this kind of complexities. Also, the other important thing is that he's very consistent in his approach towards China. He has demonstrated sustained political commitment. And this is also quite new for a Spanish PM because previous Spanish governments had similar approach, but didn't pay or didn't invest the same level of political capital. He, as you mentioned, he has made like four visits to China. This has been also complemented by a state visit of the King and Queen of Spain in November last year. So the point here is that the government thinks that If a country wants to improve significantly, its relationship with China must invest in high level political engagement and it needs to be consistent on that. So he feels that diplomacy with China requires like time, attention, continuity. So I think, yeah, that's the two things, pragmatism and consistency.
Kaiser Guo
Just now, Mario, you talked about the former governments, the former Spanish governments under Rajoy, for example, or Zapotero. My understanding from your work at Elcano is that Spain's China policy has historically enjoyed pretty broad consensus between the two major parties, the PSOE and the pp. It's been largely bipartisan. Is that consensus still holding as far as you can tell, or has Sanchez pushed things into new territory?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, your reading is absolutely right. In Spain, frankly speaking, you know, there are many issues that are very heated debate, many issues of the political agenda. Even on foreign policy, sometimes China policy has been a state of policy. So it's been quite consistent. But you are also quite right saying that nowadays Sanchez approach toward China has been criticized domestically by the Popular Party, which is the leading opposition party, but also by box. At the moment, probably the third party in Spain is a far right party, populist far right party. But we need to distinguish a little bit here because it's true that box this criticism is ideological criticism because they are like strongly anti communist and more principle kind of criticism and they are completely aligned with the MAGA movement in the us so they will follow line whatever comes from the MAGA movement. But the Popular Party is more tricky because publicly at the national level they criticize Sanchez, but most of the local power in Spain, most of the regional power is in the hands of the Popular Party. And those regional and local governments are actually competing to attract Chinese investments. They are receiving with open arms, you know, this kind of investment. So I would bet that if or when the Popular Party leads a central government in Spain, they would follow a similar approach to the one that Sanchez is following. At the practical level, probably the tone or some of the narratives would be different, but in terms of favoring positive and productive engagement with China, in terms of trade and investment, they would follow line.
Kaiser Guo
Okay, okay. Just for listeners who aren't familiar with Spanish politics, I'm not. I was just in, in Barcelona, but am very new to. So just. The party in which currently Prime Minister Sanchez is a member and is in coalition is psoe, the Partido Associalista Obrero Espanol, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party. It's a center left party, as you can imagine. Again, it's governing in a minority coalition with the Sumar alliance and the other one which you call the Popular Party or Partido Popular, the People's Party, it's the main opposition currently. It's a center right party. And they've historically, as you said, shared this sort of broad consensus on China policy. Though they've definitely been much more critical of Prime Minister Sanchez's critique of Washington under Trump. Right. They're a little more sympathetic to the transatlanticism and things. Is that correct?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Yeah, absolutely right. And also I think that it could be useful here to underline that, generally speaking, as I said, different governments, both Popular Party and Socialist governments, tend to have like a more positive tone, generally speaking, in diplomatic engagement with China. Engagement has been always a key principle for Spanish policy with China, even historically. For example, after the Tiananmen massacre, you remember, all the boycotts by the European Union of China, of course, Spain, of course, also participated into that. But the first foreign minister of an EU member state to visit China was the foreign minister of Spain. That's one example. And also when the relationship between the EU and China was much closer at the strategic level, remember in the early 2000s and also early 2010s, at that time, there were even some talks inside the EU about lifting the weapons, the embargo against China. And Spain was of the leading players bringing that issue to the table. So Spain has been traditionally quite consistent in trying to have this kind of more collaborative approach towards China.
Kaiser Guo
Excellent, Mario. A lot of the commentary that I've seen frames Sanchez's approach as a kind of update to Angela Merkel's playbook. Prioritize trade, keep the political friction to a minimum, engage relentlessly at the highest levels. Now, do you think that's a fair comparison? Is this basically what Merkel's playbook was, or is this something qualitatively different now?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, as you mentioned, there are very obvious continuities or similarities between the Merkel's playbook on China with Sanchez playbook. But there are also differences because there's been a few, like China shocks for Europe, you know, in the last few years, as you mentioned, for all the audience here, America left government in 2018. Right. So many things have happened after that first COVID 19, which exposed obviously the risk of overdependence on Chinese suppliers in the strategic sectors was pretty obvious for a lot of people in Europe that we could not rely almost completely on medical equipment for a country that is so far away. So Spain is also thinking, or Spanish government authorities are thinking more seriously about resilience, you know, strategic autonomy on that level. Or secondly, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the so called no limits partnership with Putin. This is also a huge thing. And it's true, you know, because Spain is farther away from Russia than other member states. So sometimes some people think that this is not relevant for countries that are EU member states that are far away from Russia, but they are wrong. This is not only an after geopolitical thing for Spain, but also affects Spain directly. Spain has troops deployed in Latvia, Romania, Slovakia as part of the NATO eastern flank. Spain has a strong solidarity with these other NATO and EU member states. So this is a very serious thing. So from Spain, you know, so this also inform Sanchez playbook on China. And of course another difference, it has to do with the huge macroeconomic imbalance.
Kaiser Guo
That's right.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
And this is also different to Merkel Stein. If we look at the figures of eu, China bilateral deficit, it has doubled since Merkel left office. So this is a much more pressing issue. All these debates about the industrialization in Europe, they are here now and they were not here like eight years ago. So these three things, you know, like Covid, Russian, Chinese relationships in the context of war in Ukraine, you know, and this macroeconomic imbalance, these three things made Sanchez to have like to some extent critical view on China or this idea that the security dimension of the relationship is more important to scientists than it was to Merkel.
Kaiser Guo
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we all know about the famous $1.2 trillion trade surplus that China enjoyed in 2025. Much of that, of course, because we saw the trade deficit come down considerably with the United States. A lot of it was redirected. A lot of Chinese trade was redirected into Europe. And so Europe is bearing a lot of the brunt of China's exports. Now I want to spend some.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Sorry. At one point, I was 360 billion last year, so the figure was 360 billion. 20, 25.
Kaiser Guo
Was that dollars or Euros?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Euros. Euros. Sorry. You know, all my figures are in euros, you know.
Kaiser Guo
Okay, no, no, that's fine, that's fine. You know, they're close enough right now that it doesn't make too much of a difference. So I want to spend some time on the Tsinghua speech that we talked about at the beginning. Beginning, because I think that was a genuinely impressive piece of diplomatic rhetoric. I wrote about it in some detail on my substack. Listeners can check that out. This speech was built around the figure of Matteo Ricci, this Jesuit, a very, very famous Jesuit who arrived in China in 1583. And he had to redraw his map of the world with the Pacific at the center once he realized that the Mediterranean was the center of maybe his world, but not that of others. So Sanchez used this as a lovely framing device for a speech that was all about multipolarity. And he returns to it at the close with a very nicely executed pivot to the Artemis astronauts seeing Earth as a borderless blue sphere. You know, it was an outstanding speech. As a structural conceit. Did you find this framing to be very effective? And I'm curious, Mario, how did it land in Spain? Did the Spanish media engage with the speech on its merits? Did it get reduced to a handful of headlines? What was the reaction among Spanish intellectuals who you've spoken to?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, the media, the coverage of the media is very divided because now the political situation in Spain, as in so many countries, is quite polarized. So part of the media basically criticizes the government, doesn't matter what, and other part of the media, you know, is more sympathetic. So the coverage is quite fiat because of that? I think not. You know, the poll said that this general approach of Sanchez being like in favor of a rules based international order, realizing that we live in a multipolarizing order and that we need more multilateralism to manage that order, this is a favor massively the Spanish population, I mean, the polls are very consistent on that. Even people who vote for different political parties, other political options, they support that movement. So I think that this speech aligns quite well by the general feeling, mood, perception of the Spanish population on the international order. I think there are like two key ideas you mentioned. The first part, when he speaks about Matteo Ricci, the idea that to see the world as it is, or incorporating also other people's views, we cannot live in a Eurocentric world order because the world is not Eurocentric anymore. So it will be like a double mistake. It will be run only on moral terms, but will be run also on practical terms. And I think that's what I mentioned at the very beginning when I say that Sanchez position is pragmatic, is realistic. This is not about living the world we want to live. This is about living the world we have to live in, cooperate with the realities, not of the current world. And China is a main player. We need to realize that and we need to work on that. And I think that's quite obvious. And I think he's very clear on that position. But also at the end of his speech, he also talks about Matteo Ricci and he in a very soft way, because I really like the tone of the speech. It's very subtle. But he also warns, and it's not just a warning for China because, you know, in the US and many other non EU stakeholders have the same kind of approach. The idea that the EU should not be underestimated, because even Europeans ourselves now, we live many times in a mood of extreme pessimism. We tend to underappreciate what we do have, you know, in the eu. And he plays also at the end of the strength on the eu and like, we need to find this kind of constructive agreement, realizing both sides, I mean, strengths and vulnerabilities, but with a clear eye on prejudices. So I think that's important also to emphasize the value that the EU can put on the table. So, yeah, I think that's important. And, and if I may, I know it's not completely related to that, but I think it could be interesting to, To. To put this now on the table because this came to my mind that the other day was listening to one of the podcasts. It was this conference. The title was something like the Conversation we are not having on China. Something like that was the title for me when I was hearing To Transfer the speech, because I hear it in Spanish. It remind me of something which is that when we talk about the eu, actually, the eu, as you know, is not a country.
Kaiser Guo
I mean, we are 27 countries, right?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Yeah, 27 countries. But the EU itself, the maximum epitome, you know, of regional integration. Right. That we do, of course, we do not operate at the country. And what I mean here is that part of the conversation we are not having in the EU about China and in many other countries, I think many other places, is what can we learn from China and things we should do to engage better with China or to be more effective in pursuing our own interests and values when it comes not just to China, but with the whole of the international community. Why? I'm saying that because we talk a lot and Sanchez also talk about this idea of trying to receive, for example, more investment, productive investment for China, more cooperation on science and development. And this is great, but are we prepared for that or are we. Well prepared for that? And I'm not talking about the Spain because. Well, would you look, for example, the share of the Spanish budget, research and development is 1.5.
Kaiser Guo
Yeah, it's pitifully low.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Yeah, exactly. Or would you look at the EU as a strategic entity? Well, we don't actually have like one foreign or defense policy because, you know, we are not like a federal Union on this policy arena. So we are very divided many times. I mean, it's great, you know, that we talk like the EU would be, like a coherent stakeholder, but I think we also need to do more homework, you know, at home to. To be better positioned to develop the capabilities that we need to engage more thoughtfully with China, with the us, Other countries. Yeah.
Kaiser Guo
Well, I think it's great that Prime Minister Sanchez's visit to China and his diplomacy has been maybe helping to stimulate those conversations that are very, very important.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
What.
Kaiser Guo
What really struck me in Sanchez just staying with the speech for a bit was how he really manages to deliver some quite pointed criticism of Chinese behavior while keeping the overall register of his talk very warm, very collegial. The trade deficit section, I think what he was very direct with, he talked about its growth, another 18% last year. He calls it very frankly, unsustainable. And he argues that it feeds these isolationist movements in Europe. Right. Populism, essentially, and that this is ultimately bad for China. But he arrives at this only after establishing his bona fides as a genuine believer in multipolarity, a real critic of Western insularity. So, as somebody who watches Spain China diplomacy closely, is this typical, would you say, of how Spanish leaders talk to Beijing, or was this a new level of candor and effectiveness?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, I think that generally speaking, Spanish diplomacy, when it comes to China, doesn't tend to take this moral high ground that many Western diplomats do. I think we, maybe Spanish diplomacy tends to be more aware of our own contradictions. Everybody has contradictions when it comes to foreign policy. I mean, obvious examples, us talking, okay, internally, of course, democratic country, but internationally, many times that don't behave such a democratic country. Right. China talks a lot about more inclusive, more representative, you know, international order. But come on, domestically, you don't see that that much. So everybody, we have our own contradictions. So it's not fair if you just only point to the other side's contradiction without recognizing your own. So I think that kind of tone of narrative more humble, but I think it's quite consistent, you know, in Spanish diplomacy. You know, Zapatero, for example, was also a very good example of that. I think that's not completely new, but probably the difference is that now Spain is a position in which it has a bigger role inside the EU when it comes to defining China policy. Because traditionally, Spain was not a major player at all when it comes to EU China policy. There were other member states who have a much bigger say. Spain was much more focused also in Other regions in other countries. And now there is a window of opportunity for Spain. And actually that's what I think that Sanchez saw regarding China. We were talking before about Merkel, but we remember also Sarkozy, Macron, other leaders for big EU economies that have invested a lot time and political capital in engaging with China. And Spain was not there, was not expected there. But now, when those bigger EU countries have shifted a little bit in their tone and their priorities, now is a window of opportunity for Spain to try to play a bigger role, pursuing basically the same kind of approach that have been pursuing for a long time, you know, but now his voice sounds louder because other people, they are looking, I mean, to other areas. And also because Sanchez, as you mentioned before, he has been like a leading player in Europe in criticizing the disruptive, you know, even aggressive, anxious by the Trump administration. He has not been shy to do so. And now more and more European leaders are following suit. So I think that's also give more credibility to his approach towards China.
Kaiser Guo
Yeah. And that's actually the topic that I want to move into next, about the Trump factor and the Iran war. But before we go there, before we leave this speech entirely behind, there was one very notable action, absence in the speech and that was that there was human rights. Not a single word about human rights directly. Some Spanish commentators, certainly the right wing press there, have seized on this and criticized him for it. From your perspective, was this a deliberate, defensible choice on the grounds of pragmatism that you suggested for a speech at Tsinghua University, or do you think it's a significant omission that maybe undermines the speech's moral coherence?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, I think that it would have been, I think, frankly speaking, I think it would have been even better. I mean, the speech, I really like it too. You know, I've read your piece and I have to tell you that many colleagues have written to me praising your piece.
Kaiser Guo
Oh, thank you.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Yeah. Because they feel that you really nailed it. You know, you really got the point there that this is a very difficult issue, human rights in China. Because if you speak openly about this in that kind of setting, like Xinhua University, the kind of reaction you may have in your audience is not going to be positive. It's very difficult to present that topic in a constructive way in this kind of setting. So I think that I'm guessing here, but I think that the speechwriter decided not to engage. There was like a too difficult thing to do. But I think it's important also to say that this government, not the only one, but this particular Spanish government, has consistently raised human rights issues at the highest level with Chinese interlocutor at closed door visits. So this is important. This is not like something that is missing on Spain's foreign policy or Spain's study towards China. But this is something that I think that the Spanish government thinks is difficult to do in a constructive way publicly. Yeah. So I think that's the approach they were having and they're probably right. That was the point. Because if you are doing this for your domestic audience, okay, great, you do that. But are you just going to China, you know, to please your domestic audience? Are you going to China to try to achieve things that are positive for your country? The more complex or more sophisticated level? Yes. Kind of populist like narratives that go nowhere actually when it comes to the advance of human rights inside of China. So I think that was the approach of the government.
Kaiser Guo
All right, as I said, let's move on now to the American factor in all of this. I think it's impossible to understand this visit without the context, without the backdrop of Spain's confrontation with the United States over the Iran war, the Israeli American attack on Iran. Sanchez closed Spanish airspace, as I said. He denied access to jointly operated bases. He called the war profoundly illegal and profoundly unjust. How much of Sanchez's pivot toward China, in your estimation is being driven by this rupture with Washington? How much would it have changed things if there hadn't been this rupture, if the war hadn't happened? Would the tone be the same?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, Frank has become a thing that now we are at the risk to some extent of overestimating the Trump factor.
Kaiser Guo
Okay, interesting.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Obviously he's not the original cause, you know, for Spain opening to China. We all remember that a first answer Visit was in March 2023, and he was already, you know, on that track a little bit before that. So the Spanish government sees the merits, the merits of constructive, positive agenda, constructive engagement with China on its own, leaving aside the US So that's first point. Once I said that, obviously Trump is playing a factor also. But don't forget the first part because as I said, I think we are the risk of overestimating this Trump factor.
Kaiser Guo
Yeah, that's fair. Good point. A very good point.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Yeah, but how Trump is actually so moving to the actual effect. Right, so moving to the actual Trump effect on this. Okay, first, I think that one important thing that I mentioned before is that now everybody's paying more attention to what Spain does. If we look at the continent tone of the narrative from the continental of the Spanish approach. It hasn't changed much since 2023, the first meeting, but the context is very different. And so everybody's paying more attention and doing more geopolitical readings on that. And one thing that is very obvious is that the US at the moment is not perceived as a benign hegemony in Spain. Actually, a recent poll by the El Tais, which is the leading newspaper in Spain, you know, sure, it showed that Trump was perceived as the main threat for international peace and stability by Spanish population. Close second, close second was Vladimir Putin, and third was Benjamin Netanyahu. But the first position was for Donald Trump. So this is important. And also you mentioned during the speech in Tsinghua, Sanchez explicitly called for a more active Chinese diplomatic role in addressing the main international crisis. And it's very obvious that some of those international crises has been triggered by the US and by Israel with the help of active support of the U.S. that's right.
Kaiser Guo
He names Lebanon, Iran, of course, Gaza and then Russia.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Right, exactly. So leaving Russia aside, because in Russia, as I mentioned before, you know, the concerns much more, of course, with China and with the U.S. although Trump created also a lot of controversies in Europe on that front. But my point is that Trump's disruptive international role not simply push away a little bit, push Spain away from Washington or push Spain away from this current US Administration, but also increases China's appeal as a stabilizing force to. For Spanish foreign policy, because there is more need for this kind of stabilizing role of China. So Trump is creating them. Well, we all know, we have all talked about this many, many times, right? That how the Trump administration is boosting the international role of China and is creating a lot of opportunities for Chinese diplomacy and for increasing the international standing of China. This is one more example of that.
Kaiser Guo
Right?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
This is one more example of that. And also let me elaborate a little more about this domestic political dimension, because you mentioned Sanchez leads a coalition government with quite weak parliamentary support. So this foreign policy issue is serving domestic political purposes, like taking this kind of open, European, vocal European stance against Trump. I think the Sanchez government hopes that it could mobilize domestic support for this government and this could mobilize support for the incoming elections. We are still having local elections, regional elections in Andalusia next month, which is the most populated region in Spain, and we are having a general election next year. So the fact that Trump is creating this domestic opportunity for Sanchez, and he is also taking advantage of that and this, of course, has some influence in how he builds with this China issue.
Kaiser Guo
Excellent point. Yeah. I mean, and of course his stance on Iran has been extremely popular domestically. Yeah. There is of course a worry that, you know, he's putting Spain's NATO standing at risk, you know, in the US military presence, but I'm not too worried about that. So in addition to the Iran war, of course there's Gaza. Israel has just expelled Spain from the US led Gaza Coordination Center. It cited Spain's quote, unquote, anti Israel obsession. Spain, of course, recognized Palestine in 2024. It recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv. It formalized an arms embargo on Israel. I mean, all of this adds up to an interesting, I think, a coherent foreign policy vision. I think. Is it that, Is it an affirmative foreign policy vision or does it seem to you more reactive and operative opportunistic?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
No, I think, you know, that the government realized, as I said before, that there was a political opportunity here. Of course they realized that, but at the same time I think that they are very, very comfortable because they really believe, you know, I mean, having this position that Spain should support a rules based international. Or you remember that we were talking before about contradictions. Right. That we all have contradictions when it comes to international law. Right. That don't always abide to those high norms and standards. Right. But I think that the government, the Spanish government, Spanish government, they are determined to have a very consistent approach when it comes to this because they realize that at the end of the day, when you do the balance, you know, at the end of the day for a country like Spain, the net result is much better when everybody aligns towards international law than when everybody does as it can because they have the might, they have the power, they have the capabilities to do so. This discussion about rules based order versus realpolitik or law of the jungle kind of anarchic world order, I think that the current government is very consistent, but for Spain it's much better. The first position, and not only for Spain, but for the whole of the European Union. And they've been determined to support that. Even when it's against the position of countries like the US or Israel that are countries that geopolitically have been tradition, are aligned, you know, with Spain in the case of the US is much more evident. The US is our ally, our main defense partner. No, Spain is a NATO member and Sanchez never played with the idea of changing that. Spain is a committed member of NATO. He made that position, you know, that we should support rules based Order. Even if this creates some tensions with our traditional allies and partners.
Kaiser Guo
Yes, right, right. Let's talk specifically about the European dimension of all this and focus on trade issues. In September of 2024, Sanchez was in Shanghai and he openly called on the EU to reconsider its tariffs on Chinese EVs. Very steep tariffs. Spain then flipped from an informal yes to an abstention in the October vote right after Sanchez met with Xi Jinping. The pork sector was also clearly a factor. I for one, I'm on record is supporting any policies that bring more hamoni berico or more chorizo from Spain to China. I love that. But China, you know, launched an anti dumping investigation that targeted Spain directly. How much of Spain's positioning is being shaped by these very specific sectoral vulnerabilities in automotive and in pork?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, of course it plays an important part in the whole thing because we were talking about pragmatism, right? We're talking about pragmatism. And so what does actually mean? Well, one side of that pragmatism has to do with economic relations and on that more specifically has to do with trade and investment. So when it comes to trade, Spain, as you mentioned before and Sanchez has been vocal on this, has an unsustainable trade deficit with China. You gave the figures. You know, actually, I mean, I don't want to correct the president, but official figures also should suggest that actual is an even bigger share of total. The bilateral trading balance with China is even a bigger share of total trade deficit of Spain with the wall. But nevertheless, point stays and this is unsustainable. So Spain, the position of the government is not to try to put more barriers to Chinese exports to Spain because Chinese products in Spain are beneficial at different levels, keep prices low, give more competitivity because of Spanish companies when you are part of this Chinese supply chain. So it's good. That is good. Okay. But at the same time, you need to open more the Chinese market. You need to stimulate, you know, domestic demand. This huge trade imbalance or huge macroeconomic imbalance we mentioned also before, the world economy cannot sustain that. So of course the Spanish government wants to have more Spanish exports. There you mentioned before about those deals that have been signed. Ten of them, probably 10 of them are related with Spanish exports towards China and five of them are of for the agro sector. So this is playing a big, a big part.
Kaiser Guo
Okay, yeah, no, fantastic.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
This is significant, no doubt about that. And also, you know, the mofcon just released early this month a program for boosting like foreign exports in China and Spain is being designated as one of the priority countries for that. So this is playing a part. But so far the truth is that the results on that front are not very impressive. When you look at the First Sunset basis, 2023, and you compare with last year's figures, Spain's Spanish exports toward China has increased only 7%. So not very, not a huge thing. Chinese exports to Spain have increased much higher, much faster. But at the same time, if you compare with the general Trend of the EU, at the same time that Spain's exports increased 7%, EU's exports decrease roughly the same. Well, it was 6.5%, so it's similar.
Kaiser Guo
So compared to the rest of the eu, Spain's doing very, very well. They've managed at least to boost their exports and they haven't taken the brunt of Chinese exports themselves.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Exactly.
Kaiser Guo
Now, yeah, maybe we can talk about investment, you know, which has also jumped dramatically. I'm curious. There's this cherry auto factory in Barcelona. It seems to be a good example of the relationship evolving. On the investment side, what is Spain's general posture toward Chinese investment right now, both at the elite level and popularly?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, generally speaking, there is like positive attitude towards that as long as this is like high quality investment. The idea is that China has the technology and has the financial capacity to do significant investment in Spain, particularly in sectors related with the green transition. So this kind of investment is very welcome, like EVs, battery cars for electric vehicles, renewable energy. In principle, this is very welcome. But as you know, also the devil is in the details because as I mentioned before, you mentioned at the end, right, when it comes to trade, okay, so far Spain is doing better than other European countries, is true. But this is to some extent a Pyrrhic victory as long as you keep having this huge trade deficit. Okay, so similar situation here when it comes to investment, because this kind of investments, they can play a very constructive role in, in re. Industrializing some parts of Spain. You know, you mentioned this cherry investment in Barcelona that was previously was a factory of Japanese car maker Nissan. So this is good because you have the infrastructure there, you have the knowledge there, people there. And now you have again, you know, another foreign car company that is willing to invest there and put this back to motion, back to track. So this is good, this is great, this is very welcome. But again, the levels in the details because the actual economic impact for the Spanish society is very different. Whether you localize or not, for example, your value change, whether you employ or not local labor force. So this is significant. It's not the same. You have a factory there. Just how to say this? Assembly.
Kaiser Guo
Assembly. Right, right.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
It's not the same assembly in auto parts coming from China than manufacturing the autopilots there and assembling them later. So the desire of the Spanish government is that this investment generates added value in Spain, generates prosperity in Spain, and they are working on that level because of course you need to have the investment in order for having a high quality investment. This is the challenge there, not to have this race to the bottom. This is not about having low quality investment based on offering, I mean, good conditions to China, but bad conditions, you know, for the local economy. Right. This is about trying to have, I mean, using Chinese diplomatic language, a win win situation. Right, A win win situation. You remember also in the sunset mentioned this idea that in the past Europe and China has been able to cooperate together, develop together, you know, have a kind of prosperous relationship together. Right. So we should do this again. Right. In the future. So this is the idea. But we need to have conditions that are positive to both sides. And I think that's the will of the government here.
Kaiser Guo
So one of the industries in which there's a lot of complementarity, of course, is in energy. I mean, Spain's green energy transition has been very, very impressive. Spain now has more than half of its generated electricity from renewables. You know, it's a beautifully sun drenched country, so there's lots of opportunity for solar. But it also opens up the question of how dependent Spain is on China and whether the dependency on Chinese, you know, solar panels on critical raw materials, on, you know, green tech components, on whether that gives China a kind of structural leverage over Spain. I'm not sure how, how Sanchez and his government are thinking about that, that, that issue.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
No, no, good questions. As I said before, I was really happy, you know, you invited me and now that I'm being here, I'm even more happy. I'm happier, you know, because I really like the way this is going. Well, you, you mentioned this and this is key. Okay. And we need to look at two different levels when we look at the biggest, the bigger picture. Spain is not really dependent on China. I mean, and I'm going to explain this a little bit. We have to summarize the strategy of the current European Commissions towards China. In one word, that war would be risky. Right. But different member states have different economic relationship with China. And when you look at the main EU economies, the Spanish dependency of China is much lower. I'm going to give you one example. Everybody is talking about how Chinese investment in Spain is like a skyrocket. Last year, 2025. Okay, let's look at the figures. Actually China invested last year in Spain €643 million. 643. That made China the ninth biggest investor in Spain last year, number nine. Okay, okay. Now let's look, you know, at the country that was in the first position last year, the US. The US invested over 10,000 billion in Spain last year. The US is by far the biggest source of foreign investment for Spain and at the same time is by far the main destination of Spanish FDI. Less than 1% of the stock of outward Spain FDI less than 1% is in China, over 16% of outward stock on the stock of Odwar Spain FDI is in the US. So what I'm trying to say here is that because you know, this conversation sometimes, I mean, with the media loses focus on the big picture, Spanish economy is much, much, much more integrated and dependent on the US economy than on China. Okay? So by far, so the debate should also keep this into account. But when we focus more narrowly on a specific sector that you rightly did on renewables, exactly as solar panels you mentioned, of course, then the picture is different, but not only for Spain, it's different for the whole world because China has a very dominant position on those technologies on those sectors. And this is related also to something that I said before, that Spain, Spanish authorities are aware of these vulnerabilities, particularly after Covid, everybody's aware of these vulnerabilities. And Spain has supported EU level initiatives to try to reduce those dependencies. The Critical Raw Materials act, you know, is a very obvious example. So yeah, there is concern about this over dependence. But I think that the approach here is that for the time being, of course you need to keep engaging with these Chinese suppliers, that they have the best options. And you need also, I mean to some extent is what China did in the past. You know, you need to learn also for the best technology and to try also to build your own alternatives from that. That's one of the things that you can do, but a different thing and also spend a thing on that is okay, I can assume that I depend on you on this particular sector. But we need to create mutual interdependence. And also the EU and European economy has some choke points when it comes to China. So this is not about putting pressure on each other, but it's more about having a healthy interdependence when both sides Deter each other to weaponize this kind of interdependence. So I think this is more the strategic approach of the current government instead of just de risking. De risking. De risking is trying to build more constructive interdependence.
Kaiser Guo
Mario, I'm used to thinking about how in the United States agricultural exports, especially things like soybeans and grain, really affect domestic politics when it comes to, well, to China policy. Ultimately, you know, there's vulnerabilities that are opened up when China retaliates against another tariff by targeting vulnerable quarters in the United States, specific congressional districts where they are very export dependent on China, soybean growing areas or what have you with the agricultural angle in Spain. Spain now has carved out real market access gains in China in pork, in olive oil, in wine, in cherries, things like this. Is this a factor in the domestic politics of Spain? Is this constituency helping to shape Spain's overall posture toward China?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, not really. I mean, I absolutely see your point, but not really because domestic politics in Spain are different than in the US in which sense, okay, these agro constituencies in Spain, they don't really vote much for the center left parties. And you remember before that I talk about VOGs and I said that VOCs,
Kaiser Guo
a far right populist party, exactly like MAGA line.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
And these guys, they are very vocal against engagement with China. But this is a paradox, right? This is a contradiction because their constituency is actually benefiting the most, you know, of disengagement. Right, so, right. So yeah, so this is kind of contradiction, different kind of situation, you know, that what you mentioned in the US So, so the reality is more like that the constituencies that could benefit more about this growing agro exports for Spain towards China, they are supporting the parties that are more critical about this growing engagement with China.
Kaiser Guo
Fantastic. Mario, I want to talk about Spain's influence in Europe and in the broader picture, Spain is the Eurozone's fourth largest economy, I believe, but it's not the size of Germany or even of France. How much influence can Spain actually exert over the European Commission and other EU member states when it comes to China policy? I mean, how is this ultimately being received among other EU member states and in Brussels?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, okay, let's look at what has happened recently in other two issues. One, massive human rights violations and genocide, even in gafa. And second, the opposition towards the war in Iraq. In those two issues, Sanchez government was particularly vocal against violations of international law. Both cases didn't matter which countries were on the other side because we're talking about Israel, we're talking about the US or countries with Spain has very strong relations, very important partners for Spain particularly of course, the US at the beginning, Spain was an outlier in both issues. And at the end, Spain has became a central player and more and more countries have aligned with the position of Spain. Meloni actually is a great example. Now with the war in Iran, Meloni and Sanchez are completely afar when it comes to ideological position and domestic politics. But at the end of the day they have a line on this and they have an align in the position supported by the Spanish government. So first lesson here, Spain have shown that it could be kind of a trailblazer. It can be some kind of. Yeah. Of pioneer, whatever for other EU member states to follow suit. Okay, so this is possible, but I think we should look at another very important lesson. The reason that other member states, even the European Commission have shifted position on these controversial topics was not by Spain itself. Of course you need some countries to take the first step. I think the Spanish government was brave enough to do that. But at the end of the day you need to look at what's actually going on on this topic. So my point here is that other member states of the EU Commission will shift their position if the strategy followed by Spain brings the fruits that it hopes to bring. I mean, if the trade became more balanced, if Chinese investment is more substantial and productive, if China plays like a more constructive role in global agenda issues in common goods. So this constructive engagement kind of approach would be more easily followed by other European stakeholders. If China keeps increasing its trade surplus with the eu, if Chinese investment is not high quality investment, if China internationally is not. I mean the EU and China are not aligned on things like Ukraine. I mean, we need to see how things evolve, you know, but actual results, I think that the diplomatic gester, the diplomatic aperture overcome is there, it's always there. And now we need to see how things evolve and the actual results that are achieved through this diplomatic maneuvering or diplomatic actions. So that's going to be the key issue, the key factor to move the position of other member states.
Kaiser Guo
Fantastic.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Actually, Pedro Sanchez is very well aware of this and he mentioned this explicitly also when he was in China, he asked Chinese authorities to open more so Europe doesn't have to close itself. So I think that Sanchez himself made this very explicit by Chinese authorities. If you want Europe to increase its engagement with China also we need like two tutango. We need to tutango. And of course Europe have to do more. But the ball is also on China's how to say this rule, false court or whatever you want. So, yeah, so I think that Sunset is himself, you know, made this very explicit.
Kaiser Guo
Yeah, yeah, good point. So Beijing seems to view Spain as something of a gateway, as we just suggested, not just to Europe, but also to North Africa and most importantly, to Latin America, where China is very, very heavily invested. One analyst that I came across described it as a hub from which multiple markets can be accessed all at once. I wonder whether that's how Spain sees itself and does that bridging role, if indeed Spain sees itself in that role, does it give Spain a kind of disproportionate leverage, a leverage that maybe other EU countries don't have?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, first, I cannot refrain of saying this, that we should be cautious of using this gateway concept, because I think, frankly speaking, that Chinese diplomats have been very skillful in this concept to create high expectations for many, many countries. Sometimes we have this joke inside the EU that China has 27 gateways in Europe. We make these jokes, but once said that it is true that Spain has some competitive advantages when it comes for promoting cooperation with Latin America, because the Spanish diplomatic service, Spanish companies, Spanish academia, we all have very intense networks there. We have a lot of knowledge of what's going on on the ground there. And so it's just natural that, for example, Chinese Ministry of Foreign affairs and the Spanish Minister of Foreign affairs has, like a dialogue, they have concurrences on Latin America regularly. They talk about these things because they're common interest there. Or many Spanish companies have deals, you know, with Chinese companies in Latin America. Actually, even more significant. Okay. Before we were talking about Chinese investment in Spain. I don't know the updated figures, you know, about what I'm going to say, but I remember some of the figures before COVID Chinese companies had bought three times more assets from Spanish companies in Latin America than in Spain.
Kaiser Guo
Wow.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
So that gives you an idea of how relevant is the issue that we are talking about, because Spanish companies, they really have a presence in Latin America. So, yes, Spain could be an ease, could be. Also keep being a player for that. Yes.
Kaiser Guo
So I know that, Mario, you've written before about what you've called Spain's informal China policy, that it's Europeanist, it's balanced, pragmatic, as we've talked about today, cautious also, as you've noted. But it feels like Sanchez has shifted in 2026 towards something much bolder, much more rhetorically assertive. I mean, part of it, of course, is this backdrop. We've talked about how the chaos in the rest of the world trade Trump, the American Israeli war in Iran and in Gaza has elevated this to an extent without itself changing that much. But it feels like just even in this policy of being more willing to break with Washington, being more willing to court Beijing more publicly at maybe a higher level, it feels like something has changed. Now we see this parade of European leaders heading to Beijing these days. You know, we had, here's Starmer, we had Friedrich Merz, the tise from Ireland, Martin, we had Orpo from Finland. We had this eu, I mean this European Parliament delegation which hadn't been to China in something like eight years. So do we look at Spain's approach now and see it as representative of a broader European trend, or do you still see Pedro Sanchez as an outlier? And what does this tell us about where Europe China relations are heading in 2026?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, yeah, definitely, I would even say that this is not just a European trend. I think it's wider. And we have the example of Canadian Prime Minister Norman Parmesan right in January. So it's not only in Europe. I mean, Donald Trump is creating such sense of discomfort, such sense of disruption among the US traditional allies that these countries are forced, to some extent, these authorities are forced to look also to other alternatives. Mark Carney, you cannot be more liberal. You know, his background in the traditional liberal banking institutions, it's very obvious. But that is like we mentioned before, you know, you are being forced, we are being forced to look for other options, but not for substitution of the US As I mentioned before, Spain is NATO member. Spain wants to keep being a NATO member and of course a EU member state. But you need, you are in need, you know, to do so. Let's give you one obvious example. One obvious example. So to move a little bit away from trade investment, we've been talking a lot. This is very important, we talk a lot about that. But let's look at climate change, okay? We talk about this, this concept we've used a lot, this concept of like minded countries, okay? And of course, when we talk about civil liberties, political freedom, you know, China is not a like minded country for us. I mean, for me, obviously it's not. But let's talk about climate change, okay? The US has made like so far like three climatic climate defaults, first with the Kyoto Protocol and then twice with the first and second administrations. Chinese authorities, they have been much more consistent in being aware of the threat of climate change. Of course, you know, Chinese position on this issue have shifted a lot throughout the years. I don't want to elaborate on that, but my point is that, okay, nowadays, imagine if Chinese authorities would be negationists of climate change, right. What would be the outcome for the whole world? The citation would be very problematic. So it's very obvious that you need to partner with the countries that you can partner to defend your own positions at different topics. So if in the Middle east there are some countries that are violating the sovereignty of other countries, there are some countries that are triggering international conflicts in the region, of course, you need to look for alternatives for countries that try to stabilize the situation and bring peace to those situation. But of course, if we look to Ukraine and Russia and Ukraine, so far, the situation is very different. So we need to be realistic, we need to be willing to work with the partners. We have to work in order to defend our values, our interests and anything. That's what is going on. And that's the reason now more European countries are willing to engage again with China. And the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister was very substantial in changing the course of Canadian strategy towards China.
Kaiser Guo
Absolutely, yeah.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Sorry, because I forgot to mention this when you asked me about how Trump has influenced the Spanish strategy towards China. Because when you asked me that, I was thinking on narrower terms, you know, for, for the bilateral perspective. But of course, this is also a very significant development.
Kaiser Guo
Yeah, well, it's been, what a terrific conversation. And you've really, really helped us, I think, to understand and contextualize this very important visit and the trajectory of Spanish, Chinese and more broadly, European Chinese relations. It's been an invaluable conversation for me. It's so wonderful to be able to have you on the program and I imagine you'll be back many times in the future. Let's move on now, Mario, to the section of the show that I call Paying It Forward, where I ask you to name a younger colleague, somebody whose work should be getting more attention. Who do you have in mind?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Okay, yeah, sure, sure. I'm going to cheat a little bit on this.
Kaiser Guo
Okay.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
I'm going to mention the European Think tank network on China. Etnc European Think Tank Network on China. I'm going to say first, why I think that it deserves more attention. And second, maybe for a second, let's be clear. There are many young scholars, young experts working on network, so the generational dimension is also there. So I'm cheating, but just relatively cheating. I start like complete shit. But also it needs more attention because many times non European experts, when they talk about EU China relations, they completely miss the granularity of the debates. The difference is the nuances among EU member states and the added value of this network is that provide country specific insights on the different topics that are on the agenda between the EU and China. So I really think that this could be of great interest to many people, even also to Europeans, because many Europeans, mostly Europeans, we don't know much about what's going on in other member states when it comes to China. And ETNC provides that kind of analysis. The European fintech Network on China.
Kaiser Guo
Excellent. The etnc, the European Think Tank Network on China. It's the first time I've heard of it. So even somebody like me who looks at these things frequently has somehow missed that this exists. Great. That's an excellent. Paying it forward. And I will be looking for where I can find their website and their work. What about for recommendations? Do you have a book that you've read recently or a film or any piece of media that you'd like to recommend?
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
We are scholars. Right. So we like to talk about books and all that kind of things. Since I know that this is also related for personal dimension, because I share many of your podcasts, I want to talk about a place. It's not because I'm traveling this summer to New Zealand and I'm traveling with my family. Traveling to New Zealand. Yes, we are going, the four of us there. And this is related with one of my hobbies. Not because I love board games and role play games, all that kind of stuff. You know, I'm a little bit of a nerd and I have my friends and we play the basement, that kind of stuff.
Kaiser Guo
Oh great.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
My parents basement. Speak on that. No, of course I have my own.
Kaiser Guo
Your own basement. That's a step up.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
We are getting there. So. So my point is I would like to talk about that. And I just put that on the table. Literally on the board, on the table. Yeah, New Zealand. Because this year is going to be the 25th anniversary of the release of the Fellowship of the Ring.
Kaiser Guo
Ah, so we are going as a family.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Yes.
Kaiser Guo
Do the Tolkien tour. Huh? You're going to do the. You'll see the Shire and I've wanted to do that. I was also a fantasy role playing gamer as a kid. I haven't done that in a very long time, but I still have a very soft software spot in my heart for it. And I love Tolkien. I've always loved Tolkien since, you know, elementary school and. Yeah. 25th anniversary. My God, already. You know, I rewatched the whole series, the director's Cut series, the extended versions with my daughter and they've held up so well. It really still looks so new to me. It's, it's. They're amazing films. The Peter Jackson Lord of the Rings trilogy and. Yeah, I can't wait. Take lots of pictures. I want to see.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, that's a done deal. No worries. I can't do that. And I will send you a few, you know.
Kaiser Guo
All right. All right. I have never been to New Zealand. I'm really dying to go.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
Well, actually, I have to confess this. I was myself there doing this in 2008 with a friend of mine and now I'm doing it again with my family.
Kaiser Guo
All right, Terrific. Terrific. It's a long flight, Safe travel seat. So my recommendation is for a magazine which is about to publish its third issue. It's published out of Hong Kong. It's spelled C O, N, G. They pronounce it Cong, not Cong, but it's sort of deliberately ambiguous because it looks like it could be pronounced in Pinyin. But it is visually terrific. It's a large format magazine with good paper, glossy paper for the photos and a nice textured paper for the excellent writing that appears in it. Huge swath of the art scene. It covers culture, design all over east and Southeast Asia with some writers you might even be familiar with. But it's an excellent magazine. You'll want to flip through it often and read a lot of the stories in it. I will make sure to include in the show notes how you can subscribe to it and you'll want the physical copy of it. So yeah, great new magazine. Like I said, they've only got two issues out right now, but they're going to continue. All right. Mario Esteban, what a pleasure to talk to you. It's so wonderful to have you on the show and thank you for spending so much of your day with me and getting up so early.
Mario Esteban Rodriguez
I had a great time, Kaiser. Thank you for having me.
Kaiser Guo
Yes, and we look forward to having you back on the show again. You've been listening to the Seneca Podcast. The show is produced, recorded, engineered, edited and mastered by me. Kaiser Guo. Support the show through substack@sinicapodcast.com where you will find a growing offering of terrific original China related writing and audio. Email me@cinicapodmail.com if you've got ideas on how to you can help out with the show. Don't forget to leave a review on Apple Podcasts. Enormous gratitude to the University of Wisconsin, Madison's center for East Asian Studies for supporting the show again this year. Huge thanks to my guest, Mario Esteban Rodriguez. Thanks for listening and we'll see you next week. Take care.
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Episode Title: Spain's China Gambit: Pedro Sánchez, Strategic Autonomy, and the European Turn to Beijing — with Mario Esteban Rodríguez
Host: Kaiser Kuo
Guest: Prof. Mario Esteban Rodríguez (Autonomous University of Madrid, Elcano Royal Institute)
Release Date: April 22, 2026
Duration: ~66 minutes
This episode explores Spain’s strikingly proactive approach to China under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, situating Spain within the broader shifts in European foreign policy as the continent grapples with U.S. disengagement and rising multipolarity. Host Kaiser Kuo is joined by Mario Esteban Rodríguez—Spain’s leading China scholar—to unpack the domestic, economic, and strategic logic behind Sánchez’s tilt toward Beijing, the reactions within Spain and Brussels, and what this “China gambit” signals for Europe’s future.
[07:10]
[09:12]
[13:40]
[16:31 - 28:53]
[28:53 - 34:34]
[36:24 - 43:08]
[47:40 - 49:37]
[49:37 - 53:45]
[55:57 - 60:40]
On Diplomatic Candor and Tone:
“Spanish diplomacy, when it comes to China, doesn’t tend to take this moral high ground... Maybe Spanish diplomacy tends to be more aware of our own contradictions.”
— Mario Esteban Rodríguez, [23:42]
On U.S. Perceptions in Spain:
“The U.S. at the moment is not perceived as a benign hegemony in Spain.”
— Mario Esteban Rodríguez, [30:19]
On Europe’s Lack of Strategic Coordination:
“We do not actually have like one foreign or defense policy because, you know, we are not like a federal Union on this policy arena. So we are very divided many times.”
— Mario Esteban Rodríguez, [22:00]
On Strategic Pragmatism:
“This is not about living the world we want to live [in]. This is about living in the world we have to live in and cooperate with the realities ... and China is a main player.”
— Mario Esteban Rodríguez, [17:51]
On Potential for Europe-China Cooperation:
"If you want Europe to increase its engagement with China we need... two to tango. But the ball is also on China's court."
— Mario Esteban Rodríguez, [53:08]
Joke on China’s European “Gateways”:
“Sometimes we have this joke inside the EU that China has 27 gateways in Europe.”
— Mario Esteban Rodríguez, [54:22]
| Segment | Timestamps | Content Focus | |------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------| | Opening & Guest Introduction | 00:45 - 07:05 | Scene-setting; Sánchez’s visit background and bio of Prof. Rodriguez | | Sánchez’s China Approach | 07:10 - 13:40 | Pragmatism, consistency, party consensus | | Merkel Comparison & Shocks | 13:40 - 16:31 | How EU context has changed | | The Tsinghua Speech | 16:31 - 28:53 | Rhetorical strategy and omission of human rights | | U.S. Factor/Trump | 28:53 - 34:34 | How rupture with U.S. under Trump shapes Spain’s tilt | | Trade & Sectoral Issues | 36:24 - 43:08 | Tariffs, pork & EVs, investment, renewable energy dependencies | | Agriculture & Domestic Politics | 47:40 - 49:37 | Spanish context vs U.S. farm states | | European Role & Influence | 49:37 - 53:45 | Spain as trailblazer, conditional influence on EU | | Spain’s Gateway Role & Latin America | 53:45 - 55:57 | How Spain is perceived and perceives its hub status | | Strategic Outlook: European Trend | 55:57 - 60:40 | Whether Sánchez is unique or a harbinger | | Recommendations & Wrap-Up | 61:15 - End | ETNC shout-out, Lord of the Rings tour, and magazine recs |
[61:15]
This episode provides a lively, sophisticated dive into Spain’s rising diplomatic activism with China. Mario Esteban Rodríguez’s accessible expertise lays bare the roots of Sánchez’s approach—grounded in pragmatism rather than anti-Americanism—and the delicate balancing act between engaging China, managing U.S. rupture, and influencing a changing Europe. For listeners tracking the remaking of global alliances in the 2020s, this discussion offers timely insight into how even “middle powers” like Spain can punch above their weight when global tides shift.