Sinica Podcast: The View from Behind Xi Jinping's Desk, with Jonathan Czin

Host: Kaiser Kuo
Guest: Jonathan Czin (Michael H. Armacost Chair, Brookings; former Director for China, National Security Council; longtime CIA analyst)
Date: October 21, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode explores how to understand China's leadership under Xi Jinping from Xi's perspective—a lens of "cognitive empathy." Kaiser Kuo and Jonathan Czin discuss Czin's new Foreign Affairs essay, "China Against China: Xi Jinping Confronts the Downsides of Success," which argues that Xi’s project is a serious, adaptive response to the contradictions brought on by China’s own prosperity—not just a story of repression or collapse. The conversation questions Western analytic tropes, highlights the pathologies Xi inherited, and examines China’s methods of self-correction and resilience.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rethinking Xi Jinping: The Counter Reformation (06:48)

• "Counter Reformation" Analogy:
  • Czin borrows from Carl Minzner, comparing Xi's project to the Catholic Church's Counter Reformation: not simply a rollback but a qualitatively different system emerging from efforts to fix self-identified pathologies.
  • Jonathan Czin:

    “The Catholic Church was not the same after it [the Counter Reformation], and I think that’s similarly what’s going on with Xi Jinping. He’s trying to get back to basics ... but you’re going to land somewhere new and different in that process.” (06:48)

• Xi’s Reforms vs. Predecessors:
  • Xi’s notion of reform is not about returning to prior liberalization but about recentralizing power, reasserting discipline, and addressing systemic issues like corruption, cronyism, and bureaucratic drift (08:22).

2. Diagnosing the Inherited System: Pathologies of Success (09:36)

• The "Lost Decade":
  • The Hu Jintao/Wen Jiabao era is described as a time of drift, missed opportunity, and entrenched corruption.
  • Jonathan Czin:

    “I think, in short, what he found was a mess ... there was a real sense of malaise and drift. ... they were surfing on the economic growth that happened [in the Jiang/Zhu era]...” (09:36)

• Corruption & Marriage of Wealth and Power:
  • Introducing Jiang Zemin's “Three Represents” into the Party allowed the merging of capitalist and bureaucratic interests, which co-opted the business class but “invited the wolf into the tent”—exacerbating corruption (12:25).

3. Xi’s Central Response: Resilience & the Value of "Eating Bitterness" (13:28)

• In Xi’s worldview, resilience means collective capacity to endure hardship and withstand foreign (especially US) pressures—not just economic openness or pluralism.
  • Czin:

    “Resilience from Xi’s perspective is ... about the ability to eat bitterness, its ability to withstand an onslaught from what he sees as a hostile United States.” (13:28)

  • Kuo:

    “In that sense, he's like any Chinese parent ... he thinks the ability to eat bitterness is a good thing.” (14:24)

4. Downsides of Success: Creating New Problems (15:08)

• Examples:
  • Real estate liberalization brought wealth but created a local government funding crisis and perverse incentives to seize land.
  • Reforms often “solved one problem but created another,” producing complex, enduring dilemmas.
  • Quote:

    “These are all well-intentioned things ... but they have longer tails to them that create new problems. ... becomes a Gordian knot unto itself.” (15:08)

5. Xi's Reforms: What’s Baby, What’s Bathwater? (19:21)

• Xi is not tossing out economic growth or all reforms but is rejecting the “collective leadership” model and excessive internal liberalization.
  • Czin:

    “At the top level...he wanted to throw out, move away from that collective leadership model; that was unacceptable that you had the bureaucracies with so much latitude and able to do their own thing.” (19:43)
    “What Xi didn’t want to get rid of … is the economic growth … but he is insistent on China’s prowess.” (22:27)

6. Course Correction in Authoritarian Systems (24:06)

• Challenges the Western notion that authoritarian systems can’t self-correct.
  • Czin:

    “One of the upsides [of Xi’s consolidation] is that he has been able to identify a problem … and do things that his predecessors … would not have had the wherewithal and the political heft to actually do.” (24:06)

• Xi’s use of party commissions and triangulation helps him get around “yes-men” and monitor the truth despite mutual distrust (25:36–27:24).
• Politburo Standing Committee are “yes, but men”—trusted confidants able to communicate hard truths with nuance, not just sycophants (27:24).

7. The West’s Blind Spots & Theological Baggage (31:44)

• Western China analysis hamstrung by opacity, lack of cognitive empathy, and ideological hangups about legitimacy.
  • Czin:

    “So much of your job … is to think about … what US policy should be or what China ought to be. ... It was beaten into my head from day one when I was at the agency that my job was to see the world as it looked from China’s perspective …” (31:44)

  • Kuo:

    “Almost anyone who I've ever talked to who has spent significant amounts of time at the Agency, they have that ability to, you know, that cognitive empathy.” (34:23)

8. Comparing U.S. and China: Systemic Self-Misunderstanding (36:17)

• Both the U.S. and China risk becoming “prisoners of their own myths.”
• U.S. openness no longer guarantees course correction, while China’s opacity has not prevented it, as seen in Xi’s tenure.
  • Czin:

    "'There’s a real risk on the American side of misunderstimating China … what China is doing … is a challenge not just that they’re catching up … but our whole theory of the case is kind of under challenge from what China is doing and what they're actually able to produce and do.'" (36:17–38:11)

• Xi’s centralization brings coherence to China’s Leninist system, while America’s experiment in executive consolidation is a deviation that’s yielded dysfunction (40:00).

9. Legitimacy, Learning, and Adaptation (44:12, 47:19, 48:12)

• China’s “legitimacy crisis” obsessions are mirrored by America’s own plummeting institutional trust, and both sides are experiencing new crises.
  • Czin:

    “Our institutions are suffering a legitimacy hit … and we are having our own version of a legitimacy crisis.” (44:12)

• The CCP is an “extraordinarily effective learning institution,” conducting autopsies on policy failures, avoiding repetition of mistakes, and adapting based on lessons from the Soviet Union, etc. (47:20–50:02).

10. Great Powers in Dysfunction: Not So Great Power Competition (51:54)

• The current era is marked by “not-so-great power competition,” as major powers—including the U.S., China, EU, Russia, and India—are all wrestling with deep dysfunctions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On analyzing China through Xi's eyes:

  “It was beaten into my head from day one at the agency: my job was to see the world as it looked from China’s perspective…” — Jonathan Czin (31:44)

• On course correction in authoritarian systems:

  “I would call [Xi’s inner circle] ‘yes, but’ men … these are guys who know how to talk to the boss.” — Jonathan Czin (27:24)

• On the CCP as a learning institution:

  “You will see them make a mistake, but not necessarily make the mistake more than once.” — Jonathan Czin (48:12)

• Kaiser, on China-watching culture:

  “A lot of what passes for China analysis in Washington or in the media, it’s not exactly inspired… It feels deeper. It feels almost theological, like it's baked into the way Americans have been taught to think…” (31:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [06:48] – Explaining the “Counter Reformation” analogy
• [09:36] – What Xi inherited: the Hu-Wen “lost decade”
• [13:28] – Xi’s meaning of “resilience” and “eating bitterness”
• [15:08] – The “downsides of success” and mutually reinforcing pathologies
• [19:21] – Reforming the “bathwater”: what Xi will and won’t throw out
• [24:06] – How course correction works in Xi’s China
• [27:24] – Are Xi’s advisors “yes men”?
• [31:44] – Why Western analysis falls short
• [36:17] – The US-China mirror: course correction and legitimacy
• [44:12] – Reflections on legitimacy crises in US and China
• [48:12] – How the party learns: adaptation after mistakes
• [51:54] – Dysfunction in all major powers
• [53:46–67:32] – Applying the “view from Xi’s desk”: current events (export controls, military purges)

Application: Xi’s Perspective on Recent Events

• Export Controls (53:46):
  • US commentary tends to be tactical; Xi’s moves are calculated risks to shape the bilateral dynamic, projecting confidence, and testing US appetite for escalation rather than simply reacting.
• PLA Purges (59:18):
  • Removing even close allies shows Xi is comfortable targeting friends to maintain dominance, likened to a “mafia don.” (62:01)
  • These are not signs of weakness but strategies to keep rivals off balance, with Xi confident in making and breaking careers as needed (64:24).
  • The emotional toll and sustainability of such a system is questioned as Xi ages (67:32).

Recommendations & "Paying it Forward" (68:41–75:47)

• Name checks:
  • Ellen Matthias (research assistant); Denny McMahon & Andrew Polk (Trivium podcast)—praised for cognitive empathy in China analysis.
• Book Recommendations:
  • Joseph Torigian, Biography of Xi’s Father (71:16)
  • C.V. Wedgwood, The Thirty Years War (71:39)
  • Alessandro Manzoni, The Betrothed (73:19) – historical fiction set during the Thirty Years War.
  • Kaiser recommends: Daniel Tam Claiborne, Transplants (novel; set in China/US).

Conclusion

This episode makes a forceful case for “cognitive empathy”—the discipline of assessing China’s leadership through Xi’s eyes, not through the prism of Western expectations or ideological wishful thinking. It dispels popular narratives of imminent collapse or monolithic repression and instead offers a layered, self-critical view of Xi’s logic in addressing corruption, centralization, and system resilience. The podcast closes by connecting these insights to both current U.S.–China tensions and the wider crisis of legitimacy in great powers worldwide.

For listeners seeking a nuanced, deeply informed understanding of China’s leadership under Xi Jinping, this episode is an essential guide to thinking beyond old tropes and toward genuine strategic empathy.