Sinica Podcast: "Uneasy Calm: Ryan Hass on Three Pathways for U.S.-China Relations Under Trump"

Host: Kaiser Kuo
Guest: Ryan Hass (Director, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings)
Date: February 4, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the evolving landscape of U.S.-China relations during Donald Trump's second presidency. Kaiser Kuo sits down with Ryan Hass, a leading U.S.-China analyst, to discuss Hass's recent Brookings essay outlining three possible pathways for the relationship: a soft landing, a hard split, and what he argues is the most likely outcome—an "uneasy calm." Through in-depth analysis and candid exchange, they examine the strategic calculations, domestic pressures, and mutual vulnerabilities shaping Washington and Beijing’s policies, and the possible future trajectories for bilateral ties.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strategic Pause: Assessing Trump’s Approach

• Trump’s Shift in Policy: Trump’s administration has moved away from great power competition rhetoric toward a more pragmatic, transactional relationship with China, marked by personal diplomacy with Xi Jinping and a softened tone on contentious issues.
  • "Trump's repeated praise for Xi Jinping, his apparent sensitivity to certain of Beijing's red lines...marks a sharp departure from recent bipartisan orthodoxy in Washington." — Kaiser Kuo (04:30)
• Personalistic Leadership: Both Trump and Xi are highly personalistic leaders, making decisions that often reflect their own instincts and priorities more than bureaucratic consensus.
  • "He is his own China desk officer... He is talking to people he treats as peers, including Jensen Huang, but not just Jensen Huang." — Ryan Hass (09:38)

2. Domestic Drivers of Policy (U.S. & China)

• Constraints & Calculations: Trump faces limited domestic constraints and is sensitive to public mood, economic vulnerabilities (rare earths, affordability), and legacy.
  • "President Trump… reflects what he can sense from the American people in terms of what their expectations are for the US-China relationship today." — Ryan Hass (09:01)
• Business & Political Pressure: Unlike prior administrations, Trump is less driven by traditional business or industrial policy lobbies; his decision-making is heavily informed by personal contacts.
• Chinese Domestic Concerns: Xi Jinping’s policy is similarly determined by elite consensus on issues like technological self-reliance, maintaining regime stability, and the desire to use this period of calm to advance Chinese interests.
  • "One of them is making progress towards greater self-reliance and less dependence upon the United States and the west for China's future growth, innovation and technological breakthroughs." — Ryan Hass (13:27)

3. Scenarios for U.S.-China Relations

Scenario 1: Soft Landing (19:09)

Description: Both sides invest in improved relations, lower barriers to trade/investment, and anchor détente in tangible agreements.

• Requirements:
  • Meticulous preparation for leader-level engagement.
  • Costly signals from both sides: e.g., the U.S. welcoming Chinese investment, China making reciprocal moves (e.g. on Taiwan).
• Challenges: Lack of historical precedent for restraint-for-restraint, skepticism about Chinese follow-through on deals, and deep distrust on both sides.
  • "I can't think of anything... that would give a lot of confidence to the notion that restraint for restraint is... a well established trend." — Ryan Hass (23:15)
• Taiwan as a Stumbling Block: Even optimistic scenarios point to Taiwan as a near-insurmountable challenge to any lasting reset.

Scenario 2: Hard Split (27:30)

Description: The relationship regresses into confrontation due to unmet expectations, external shocks, or electoral incentives.

• Triggers:
  • Perceived underperformance or betrayal in agreements.
  • Escalation over Taiwan, rare earths, or military confrontations in the region.
  • U.S. midterm politics driving Trump to adopt a tougher stance.
• Danger Points: Miscalculation, miscommunication, or poorly coordinated policy actions (e.g., new tech export controls).
  • "If there were further actions... that the Chinese perceive as violating the truce... that could compel the Chinese to reciprocate and retaliate." — Ryan Hass (32:13)
• Momentum Hurdle: Once set in motion, anger and reprisals are self-reinforcing and difficult to reverse, unless leaders intervene directly.

Scenario 3: Uneasy Calm – Buying Time & Insulation (34:29)

Description: The most likely outcome: both sides seek to avoid open conflict, reinforce their own positions, and reduce mutual dependencies, but the underlying mistrust and vulnerabilities remain.

• Why Durable: Neither side aims for a major concession; both believe time is on their side.
  • "I don't think that either country is prepared to accept a subordinate status to the other. I think that both countries... are able to tell themselves a story that time is on their side..." — Ryan Hass (35:08)
• Mutual Dependence:
  • U.S.: Dependence on Chinese rare earths and pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
  • China: Dependence on Western semiconductors, airplane components, higher education access.
  • "Rare earths aren't the only source of American dependence upon China." — Ryan Hass (37:18)
• Long-Term Risks: If one side succeeds faster at reducing dependence, it may destabilize the fragile equilibrium.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Trump is in a category of one amongst the US political class in his willingness... to affect the change in America's overall orientation towards China." — Ryan Hass (10:57)
• "There is no outbreak of goodwill... if we manage it well through this coming period, we will have done a service as stewards of a long-term relationship rather than as authors of some concluding chapter to it." — Ryan Hass (47:25)
• Reference to Adam Tooze: "If we think of what's going on... as a power diffusion instead of transition, the challenge and our response changes." — Ryan Hass (44:16)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 05:56: Introduction of Ryan Hass & the three-scenario framework
• 06:22 – 09:01: Domestic political forces shaping Trump’s China policy
• 13:27 – 16:06: Xi Jinping’s calculus and China’s motives during the calm
• 19:09 – 26:25: Deep dive into Scenario 1: Soft landing, costly signals, Taiwan issue
• 27:30 – 34:29: Scenario 2: Hard split, triggers, why it’s both plausible and avoidable
• 34:29 – 43:07: Scenario 3: Uneasy calm—mutual vulnerabilities, why it may persist, and what could undermine it
• 43:07 – 46:36: U.S. domestic vulnerabilities, diminishing alliances, economic anxieties
• 46:36 – 47:42: Framework for understanding the current moment: trust vs. engineered resilience
• 48:02 – 50:25: What to watch for: leader summits, atmosphere, and tangible reductions in dependency

Guidance for Listeners: What to Watch for

To gauge where the relationship is heading in the next 12–18 months, Hass suggests focusing on:

• Frequency and quality of direct Trump-Xi communication (48:02)
• Level of preparation for summits (substance vs. symbolic pageantry)
• U.S. progress on reducing rare earth/shock vulnerabilities
• China’s success at innovating around U.S. export controls

Style and Tone

The conversation is highly analytical, nuanced, and candid—with an undercurrent of realism and wariness, but not without optimism for diplomatic stewardship. Hass is clear-eyed and skeptical of easy narratives, frequently emphasizing the need for practical, not ideological, solutions. Kaiser Kuo’s moderating brings humor and a reflective perspective, especially regarding the unpredictability of both U.S. and Chinese leadership styles.

Further Reading & Recommendations

• Ryan Hass: Recommends Robert Suttner's "The Conscience of the Party: The Biography of Hu Yaobang" (52:14)
• Kaiser Kuo: Recommends Alexandre Dumas's "The Last Cavalier," Asia Society discussions on the Chinese economy, and the Trivium China podcast.

Closing Thoughts

With scenario three—the "uneasy calm"—as the consensus likely path, both host and guest urge vigilance over tangible indicators rather than rhetoric. The U.S.-China relationship remains fraught, less about trust and more about building resilience amid enduring mutual suspicion and structural vulnerabilities.

For additional depth and Ryan Hass’s full essay, visit the Brookings website. For Kaiser Kuo’s on-the-ground reporting during Trump’s April Beijing visit, stay tuned to Sinica.