We Were Right: Kaiser and Jeremy Reunite to Riff on the China Vibe Shift

Summary

Sinica Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: We Were Right: Kaiser and Jeremy Reunite to Riff on the China Vibe Shift

Host: Kaiser Kuo
Guest: Jeremy Goldkorn
Date: November 11, 2025

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Main Theme Overview

This episode reunites Sinica Podcast host Kaiser Kuo with co-founder and longtime co-host Jeremy Goldkorn for an unscripted, wide-ranging discussion on what they dub the “China vibe shift.” They argue that both in media and political circles, the strident, alarmist anti-China rhetoric that dominated U.S. discourse over the past decade has palpably receded. Instead, a more nuanced, measured, and sometimes even admiring tone toward China is emerging—driven by both changes at home in America and in the global order. Kaiser and Jeremy reflect on what’s driving this shift, how it’s playing out in politics, media coverage, generational attitudes, and their own personal perspectives.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The U.S. Domestic "Dumpster Fire" and Waning China Panic

• Jeremy's Take: The biggest factor in the softened U.S. tone toward China is domestic dysfunction:
  • “It is very, very difficult to get too worked up over Communist Party malfeasance… when every morning waking up to the news is a nightmare for much of the world, but you really feel it if you're in America.” (05:16)
• Kaiser adds: The U.S.-China narrative is always in some sense a comparative exercise:
  • “What we think of another place has everything to do with what we think of what's happening here at home.” (05:58)

2. Trump, Authoritarian Admiration, and a Shift in Focus

• Trump creates contrast with China both by embracing some forms of authoritarianism (taking the wind out of anti-China moralizing) and focusing on other foreign issues.
• Interest in Taiwan has receded following unsuccessful recall votes and cancelled high-profile visits/events, with Trump treating Taiwan more as a “bargaining card… disposable if necessary.” (08:14)
• Polling in Taiwan shows diminishing public appetite for confrontation, affecting U.S. enthusiasm for “beating the war drums.” (08:45)

3. End of Hardline “China Hawkism”

• Jeremy:

  • Hardline China hawks (e.g., Pompeo, Navarro) have faded or are sidelined: “All the hardline China hawks are either gone or neutered… Even the ones that still remain… are quiet and seem to not have any role of any consequence.” (09:07)
  • Shift in hawkish ire toward India noted humorously (“Death By India Now,” Navarro pivot) (10:00–11:08)

• Media Analysis:

  • “The China hawks… are in full retreat. It's like the end of a decade of China Hawkism.” (11:33)
  • Congressional committees “sound increasingly sort of shrill and… impotent.” (12:22)

4. Tech & Media Narratives—Jaw-Dropping Admiration

• Kaiser:
  • U.S. strength “isn’t going to come from shutting China out,” as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt argued in The Atlantic (13:01)
  • Recent books and high-profile visits (e.g., by Ford’s Jim Farley, Dan Wang’s Breakneck) have shifted focus to Chinese competence and innovation.
• Jeremy:
  • The narrative from non-specialists is “China is winning at certain things… [and is] competent. Which is perhaps, you know, the thing we're feeling most vulnerable right now in the United States.” (16:12)

5. Generational Shift: Younger Americans Warm to China

• Polling Evidence:
  • The Pew and Chicago Council polls reveal a “rising positivity” toward China among the young and, generally, a less confrontational approach:
    • “The percentage of people who were supporting, actively containing China fell from 49% to 36% from 2023.” (27:25)
    • The generational trend is “a leading indicator… these are people who are going to move into the sort of center very soon.” (27:48)
• TikTok, Temu, Shein, and “infrastructure porn” online are shaping perceptions:
  • “The picture you get of China if you just watch TikTok… is remarkably different.” (29:09)
• Cultural spillovers (K-pop, generalized ‘Asian cool’) normalize and endear aspects of Chinese or broader East Asian culture, especially for younger, less cosmopolitan Americans. (30:32)

6. China’s Diplomatic Reset: No More Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

• China has dialed back its “wolf warrior” ultra-nationalist messaging, which had looked “petty and small and weak, just like Trump’s antics do now to America.” (32:16)
• Ending such diplomacy mattered most to journalists, who amplified that negativity, and its absence has helped soften international perceptions. (32:48)

7. Rise of Admiration for Chinese ‘Spine’ (Especially in Trade)

• American and British public comments (e.g., on Guardian/FT articles) have shown support for China “standing up to the bully”—a sentiment that wouldn’t have been seen a year ago. (34:13–35:15)

8. Cautions against Pendulum Swinging Too Far

• Kaiser and Jeremy warn about possible overcorrections:
  • Twitter/X discourse now has “pro-China hubris that has no patience at all for any form of criticism about China.” (41:28)
  • Fandom and ideological shifts can become toxic—a lesson from the feverish anti-China years that need not be repeated:
    • “Things can go too far… if I've learned anything from the last five or six years is that my assumptions can be overturned overnight.” (43:18)

9. Reflections on Personal Vibe, Media, and Going ‘Home’

• Jeremy: Personally, having left the frontlines of the China Project, he feels calmer—less stressed, less reactive about China, and more focused on the U.S.'s own dysfunctions:
  • “Currently the greatest threat to world prosperity is right here in the US… that's where my concentration should be, not on China.” (21:10)
• Both Kaiser and Jeremy experience homesickness for Beijing, expressing anticipation for future visits and reunions.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jeremy Goldkorn [on U.S. domestic politics and China focus]:

  • “It is very, very difficult to get too worked up over Communist Party malfeasance… when every morning waking up to the news is a nightmare…” (05:16)

• Kaiser Kuo [on the ‘China Hawk’ retreat]:

  • “The China hawks… are in full retreat. It’s like the end of a decade of China Hawkism.” (11:33)
  • “I feel like the hawks have kind of punched themselves out. Like, they've just been screeching so loudly for so long that they're just sort of tired…” (24:07)

• Jeremy Goldkorn [on media narrative shift]:

  • “The narrative that I think most audience… who are not China people have come away from from Dan’s book is, is that China is winning at certain things.” (16:12)

• Kaiser Kuo [on polling]:

  • “The percentage of people who were supporting, actively containing China fell from 49% to 36% from 2023.” (27:25)

• Jeremy Goldkorn [on TikTok-driven perception]:

  • “The picture you get of China if you just watch TikTok… is remarkably different.” (29:09)
  • “It's infrastructure porn. It's lifestyle that looks, looks pretty cool. It's gadget porn. It's drones, it's young people having fun. It's, you know, cool cities.” (29:40)

• Jeremy Goldkorn [on the end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy]:

  • “It made China seem petty and small and weak, just like Trump's antics do now to America. When you have diplomats tweeting things like an adolescent, it does not make the country look like a serious country.” (32:16)

• Kaiser Kuo [on pro-China pendulum]:

  • “There's this new kind of pro China hubris that has no patience at all for any form of criticism about China.” (41:28)

• Jeremy Goldkorn [on shifting perspective]:

  • “Currently the greatest threat to world prosperity is right here in the US and if anybody's going to get excited about any party or politician doing bad things, this is where my concentration should be, not on China.” (21:10)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening overview & episode context: 00:00–04:09
• Vibe shift origins, impact of U.S. politics: 05:16–06:56
• Trump, Taiwan, and foreign policy adjustment: 06:56–09:05
• Demise of the China Hawks: 09:05–13:01
• Media narratives and shifting admiration: 13:01–17:00
• Generational shifts, TikTok perceptions: 27:25–30:32
• Wolf Warrior diplomacy, China's image reset: 31:44–32:48
• Chinese ‘spine’ and global reaction: 33:15–35:15
• Cautions about new pro-China hubris: 41:28–43:18
• Personal perspectives, returning to Beijing: 46:08–47:14
• Cultural recommendations & closing: 47:30–53:38

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Pay It Forward & Recommendations

Jeremy Goldkorn:

• Echo T in Berlin for organizing the Berlin Independent Chinese Film Festival.
• J. Ruquin in New York, for his work on independent Chinese film events. (47:30)
• Book: “Ya No Man” by Richard Poplak—Memoir of growing up in apartheid South Africa. (50:05)

Kaiser Kuo:

• Podcast: “Rhyming Chaos” by Jeremy Goldkorn and Maria Repnikova—Stories about living through authoritarian takeovers. (51:40)

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Closing Tone

The episode’s tone is conversational, thoughtful, sometimes self-deprecating, with flashes of humor, nostalgia, and clear-eyed skepticism—all in keeping with the long-running Sinica ethos of “bringing more light and less heat” to China discourse.

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Bottom Line

The “China vibe shift” is real, measurable, and perhaps overdue—driven as much by U.S. internal turmoil as by change in China itself. Both Kaiser and Jeremy see a generational opening for more mature engagement, even as they caution against new groupthink and over-corrections. And the nostalgia for Beijing, and thoughtful optimism that underpins their reunion, is as strong as ever.

Transcript

[A]

What can 160 years of experience teach.

[B]

You about the future? When it comes to protecting what matters, Pacific Life provides life insurance, retirement income and employee benefits for people and businesses building a more confident tomorrow. Strategies rooted in strength and backed by experience. Ask a financial professional how Pacific Life can help you today. Pacific Life Insurance Company Omaha, Nebraska and in New York Pacific Life and Annuity, Phoenix, Arizona welcome to the Cynical Podcast, a weekly discussion of current affairs in China. In this program we look at books, ideas, new research, intellectual currents, and cultural trends that can help us better understand what's happening in China's politics, foreign relations, economics and society. Join me each week for in depth conversations that shed more light and bring less heat to how we think and talk about China. I'm Kaiser Gore, coming to you this week from my home in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Sinica is supported this year by the center for East Asian Studies at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, a national resource center for the study of East Asia. The Sinica podcast will remain free, but if you work for an organization that believes in what I'm doing with the show and with the newsletter, please consider lending your support. I am in dire need of more institutional support. You can reach [e-mail] so do reach out and listeners. You can do your part by supporting my work. As a paying [e-mail] you will enjoy, in addition to the show, the complete transcript of it, essays from me, as well as writings and podcasts from some of your favorite China focused columnists and commentators. And of course you will bask in the glow of knowing that you are helping Kaiser do what what he honestly believes is very important work. So do check out that page to see all that he's on offer and consider helping out. Look, there's no other way to say this. We were right. Back in February, Jeremy Goldkorn, the show's co founder and longtime co host, was back on the show to talk about the palpable shift that we sensed was underway in how Americans viewed China. Not necessarily in the policies themselves, but really in the tone, in the mood, in the framing of the relationship, the vibe. This was right on the aftermath of the deep sea moment in January, after the TikTok refugees on Xiaohongshu in January as well. You probably remember all that well. But seven months out, I think we're ready to say that our intuition back then has fully borne out across media among the card carrying members of the American strategic class. Among ordinary Americans too, there is now a palpable softening of the absolutist rhetoric and a new appetite for sober reassessment. We'd be exaggerating if we called it a detente, but it is maybe a recognition that the US China rivalry has entered a more self aware phase. Maybe it's just our politics look so freaking awful right now, but maybe we're alive to the hypocrisy and the pathetic cope of being all high handed with China all the time. But in any case, it feels like the fever has broken. And the earlier panic and moralism, they were always unsustainable. But the shift is no longer just something that's perceptible, it's actually measurable. And we'll talk about a couple of important polls that have come out and borne out what Jeremy and I suspected all along. So I thought it was high time to get the man himself back on the show. Jeremy, my God, man, it's great to see you. I understand you recently summited Mount Everest and made a solo trek to the South Pole. That's amazing, man. I think you're like the first South African to do both all in the course of two weeks.

[A]

Yes, well, you know, the world is burning, so one might as well spend one and one's energies on pointless feats of endurance, right?

[B]

Yeah. That was great. I mean, I'm very proud of you.

[A]

Yeah, well, it was hard, but you know, the helicopter helped.

[B]

Jeremy. What? Let's. Let's jump right in. What has happened since that moment, you know, with the TikTok thing and the deep sea thing and ishowspeed going to China, all that. I mean, I was compiling a timeline of important viral moments on social media for various videos. All the infrastructure porn, the highest bridge in the world in Guizhou, the amazing pedestrian bridge that everyone seemed to be oohing and ahhing over in Chengdu, yada yada. And also the important essays that have come out in the time. And then more tech stuff like the humanoid robotics that are. I got to say, they're pretty amazing. And obviously the big political moments, all the taco meals that our president has eaten since he launched his Liberation Day. Tariffs, of course, and the September 3rd parade. I realized we could be here all day just talking about individual things that have happened since. But what would be your picks for the most consequential things? Or do you see this as an accretion of a bunch of smaller things? Or is there one thing that looms above it all?

[A]

Yeah, I think there is one thing that looms above it all, which is the utter sh T show here in the United States, it is very, very difficult to get too worked up over Communist Party malfeasance when they're just kind of predictably running things the way they were last year, when every morning waking up to the news is a nightmare for much of the world, but you really feel it if you're in America. So I think a lot of the energy that was once devoted to worrying about China everywhere is now devoted to worrying about America.

[B]

Okay, good enough. Yeah. I mean, I couldn't agree with you more that that's probably the biggest factor. It's always going to be a comparative exercise. Right. I mean, what we think of another place has everything to do with what we think of what's happening here at home. What's interesting to me about Trump, though, is that he's not only creating the dumpster fire that makes China look good by comparison, but he also has that admiration for authoritarians everywhere. We've talked about that a lot. Everyone has. It's been commented on so extensively. And he also has that kind of more isolationist, I guess, more generously, we could call him a restrainer when it comes to foreign policy. His instincts. And it makes him want to avoid too many foreign entanglements. And that's definitely all had an effect as well. So it's sort of the repellent kind of push of American politics really sucks right now, but it's also having kind of an effect on overall tone coming out of the bully pulpit, right?

[A]

Yes, I guess so. And I mean, in the last couple of months, the sense that the American sort of military machine is focused on the Western Hemisphere and the Caribbean, really, that seems to be what's occupying the minds of the strategists at the senior levels of American government that. I haven't heard anybody mention Indo Pacific for quite a while.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, it's still there, but part of it is. God, I mean, Taiwan's a huge piece of it. I mean, obviously there's been no grand bargain on that yet. But it's pretty obvious to me that since the August recall vote and the abject failure of the DPP's efforts to recall KMT legislators, Trump has lost a lot of interest in. I mean, right after that, they canceled LIES transit stop in America. They canceled a big national defense powwow that was supposed to happen in the D.C. suburbs, he's shown very little interest. I mean, he's, he's not really adjusted downward the, the Liberation Day tariff on Taiwan. He's, he's actually taken Taiwan to Task quite a bit about, you know, semiconductors and stuff like that. It's, it's. Yeah, it's, it's weird, man.

[A]

It feels like he sees Taiwan as a bargaining card that, you know, is quite disposable if necessary. I mean, those are the sort of atmospherics about it, I think. I think also in Taiwan itself, there seems to be a bit of a vibe shift. I mean.

[B]

Yeah, I saw some polling stuff. Yeah. I mean, the, my Formosa did a poll that showed there were. There's a pretty significant drop in the number of Taiwanese people who say they would, they would fight, they would die for.

[A]

Yeah. So, I mean, the fight may be going out of the Taiwanese themselves. So that, that, that affects things. That means there'll be less American enthusiasm for beating the war drums about Taiwan. But yeah, I mean, the, these. There are other, a lot of other things at work too, aren't there?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, a ton. A ton of things.

[A]

So aside from Taiwan, I mean, I think in the administration itself now, all the hardline China hawks are either gone or neutered. People like the Mike Pompeo who, you know, committed sort of China hawks, they're no longer on the scene, they're all gone. And even the ones that still remain somewhere in the picture, like Peter Navarro, who's still in Trump world somewhere. I can't remember what he's doing. He is quiet and seems to not have any role of any consequence.

[B]

Well, I mean, it's interesting with Navarro, he kind of pivoted to turn his ire against India. I actually had a good time with that. Do you remember when. I mean, there's so much that happens in this administration, but when the Trump administration, basically, I mean, my theory was they got a bloody nose going after China. It was like the second of three major taco foldings that we saw. But he got a bloody nose when he tried to get all pugilistic with China. So then he was looking for an easy victory. He kind of smelled the blood in the water. Kind of knew that there was this anti Indian racism that was abroad in the land in America. After Vivek Ramaswamy's unfortunate Twitter post, this little op ed about, eat your vegetables, Americans, you're mediocre. And then people were beating up on JD Vance for having an Indian wife and there was this sort of anti Indian racism. And Trump, being a creature of low animal cunning, understood that. And he knew he could go after India because he has this idea that there's a linkage between how the nation of origin is treated and how Indian Americans are treated. So, you know, then suddenly, like Peter Navarro slots in India instead of China and he starts, I was joking that he was going to publish a book called Death by India now. And I even had ChatGPT make images of the covers of that book.

[A]

I think you're probably right because he's not going to want to isolate himself from Trump world and obviously the hard line on China is dead there. So.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, our dear friend Ben Smith from Semaphore, you know, he. Who? Jeremy. You love that guy, right?

[A]

Yeah, he's great.

[B]

Yeah, he's a good friend. I mean, always just a loyal friend to the China Project. He never did anything to hurt us anyway. But he. He had a piece that's basically talking about how they're in full retreat. Right. The China hawks. I mean, it's like an end of a decade of China Hawkism.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Do you think that's right?

[A]

I think it is. You know, I know, you know, there was some pushback to it, but I think it's. It's absolutely spot on. I mean, I get the emails from the Select Committee on China, you know, whatever their name is. They never could quite fix a name, but, like the strategic threat of the Chinese Communist Party, so that committed. And they are sounding increasingly sort of shrill and kind of bleating.

[B]

Well, they've always been shrill, right?

[A]

Yeah. But now they sound sort of, I suppose, impotent. Some of them are sort of pleading with Trump to, you know, being meaner to China. It does feel like the hawks are deflated significantly.

[B]

Let's not forget that he sicced Laura Loomer on the whole NSC China team. He basically took down China House in the State Department. It's really weird. Even with Marco Rubio at the helm there, a noted China hawk. Yeah, they are in kind of full retreat. It's very strange.

[A]

I mean, Marco Rubio was once a noted Trump opponent, so I don't think that person has any actual beliefs that would stand the test of his road to power, so. Right, yeah. I mean, speaking of media pieces, the other one that sort of sprung to mind as being influen, you know, by influential people was Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, and sure, sure, his collaborator, Selena sue in the Atlantic. And I mean, that was talking, not about the end of China hawks, but that was talking about the tech angle that, you know, US strength isn't going to come from shutting China out and approaching the complex nature of, you know, the bilateral relationship through technology and basically saying that we can't Decouple.

[B]

It's been actually a whole ton of articles. Right. I mean, just a ton of them. I mean, some really, really solid people. Ishan Tharoor, who I really love. He's the Washington Post columnist on international affairs. He's written a couple of things. Fried Zakaria. I mean, that's not surprising that you'll read stuff from him. I have to give credit to Adam Tooze. He's been pretty unflagging. Again, not a surprise to hear him taking on that kind of nonsense. But a lot of that is, as you say in tech. We've had so many of these pieces that have been written by people who've gone to China. They're people who maybe haven't been since before the pandemic. And they come back with their jaws on the floor. I mean, they're just sort of their eyes open and gushing. I mean, some of them are people like the CEO of Ford, Jim Farley. Right. He came back and did all the rounds of media talking about what's happening there. But also, just like Dan Wong's book, right.

[A]

Breakneck. Right. About the loyalty society of America and the engineering society of China and why America's so bad at doing certain things. I think that has had a real effect and it's been.

[B]

It's weird. Yeah. I mean, even though people don't take. There's whole chapters that what goes wrong when you have engineers in charge. He draws very heavily on this sort of critique of high modernism in James Scott. Right. But that's not the message that people are coming away with.

[A]

No. And of course, I mean, a lot can go wrong and people go to China and get in a high speed train and come back and they don't see all the problems. And people are ignoring the bad lessons of the engineering society from Dan Wang's book. But nonetheless, we're talking about the narrative shift and the narrative that I think most audience, you know, people who are not China people have come away from from Dan's book is, is that China is winning at certain things.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And competent. Which is perhaps, you know, the thing we're feeling most vulnerable right now in the United States.

[B]

Right.

[A]

You know, and it's been quite extraordinary the media coverage Dan has generated. I mean, I saw on Blue sky the other day some person tweeting, who is this person and why are they in all my feeds with a screenshot of some Dan Wang things. The attention has been paid.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, he's. It's very much the zeitgeist Book of the year, but also outside of the mainstream media. I mean, you talked about all the podcast coverage of Dan. I got to him first, of course.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Yeah, right, right, right. But I mean, you've seen a lot of people sort of in the sensible center now being paid a lot of attention. I mean, look, props to people like Tom Friedman. He went on Ezra Klein, he talked about this stuff. This was another big shifter. But these podcasters like Dwarkesh Patel, he's taken this very keen interest in China. He's been doing quite a number of shows that are China related. I would recommend his interview with Arthur Kroeber. I had a chance to speak with Arthur. We had dinner together when I was in Beijing last and we were talking about that interview and it was insane. I mean, he taped for like four hours. It's nuts.

[A]

But yeah, yeah, those are very long.

[B]

I don't understand that. I just don't. The stamina is really impressive.

[A]

It's. Yeah, the long form podcast phenomenon is, is, is kind of. It's a thing that I'm not really.

[B]

I'm not.

[A]

I think I'm too old for four hour podcasts. Like, if I have to calculate the number of hours available to me left in life, I don't necessarily, you know, I'd rather have something a bit more tight. But anyway, to each his own. And the podcast is very, very influential amongst like young techies and kind of, yeah, mainstream kind of, you know, bro dudes. On a similar note, there was Lex Fridman. Yeah, yeah, right, exactly. And that was with. With. So also, you know, very much a moderating voice on China. So these things, I think we've just checked it, name, checked a few of them and there've been a bunch. So that's very important.

[B]

I feel like there's like this whole genre now of substack pieces that I've seen of tech guy goes to China and writes about it. Or I ran a trip of tech entrepreneurs that went to China and here's what they had to say. There's tons of these pieces that I've read. I talked to Jasmine Swin about her trip. She took a bunch of friends and she.

[A]

Just for the listener, Kaisa.

[B]

Jasmine used to work for Substack and then she left. But people could listen to that show that she did with me and with Tian Yifang, which was a lot of fun. She's fantastic. She has her own podcast too, which I also highly recommend. She's a really, really just great writer. So her stuff is really fun to read. She, she did this sort of, you know, a lexicon of new Silicon Valley slang words, which was, which was a lot of fun. She's, she's good and cynical about a lot of the bullshit in San Francisco and in the Valley. Anyway, I'm curious about your own headspace. I mean, how your own vibe is when it comes to China and whether that has or hasn't shifted. I mean, it's no secret that we didn't see things exactly the same in the many, many, many years we co hosted the show. But I'm curious about. You haven't been back since the pandemic, I guess, but no, I haven't. You watch carefully.

[A]

I watch carefully. I speak to a lot of people who spend time there. I'm on WeChat and communicate with friends and I'm planning to go back soon. So I think that on a personal note, I mean, when I was the editor in chief of the China Project, it was very stressful because it was the height in some ways of, of the anti China fever in the US and we were right in stuck in the middle trying to run an honest news operation. And the pressures from all sides were very intense. And it, it made a lot of my think China associated with some kind of stress. I think on a personal note, not having a, a job like that has made me a lot calmer about, and a lot more sort of dispassionate, I suppose, about China. So that definitely has changed my own sort of personal position. I think, on the other hand, that I definitely have been very affected by the chaos here in the United States and the realization that currently the greatest threat to world prosperity is right here in the US and if anybody's going to get excited about any party or politician doing bad things, this is where my concentration should be, not on China. So I think I'm just generally less inclined to get excited about being critical about China. And I mean, this is being very honest. But I think despite American journalism's claim to objectivity, this is pretty much what should naturally be going through the heads of media organizations, because news is where news is breaking and news is breaking right here. So I mean, you know, I think that's kind of the general background, but I also think that since the pandemic, there was obviously a lot that went wrong. I think that the recovery has been pretty remarkable. You know, the Communist Party has shown its competence again after a period where there was some doubt within China and without. And they re established the fact that they are very competent at governing. So I think that, to me, has made a big difference in the way I've thought about them. And I think that at the very least right now in the world, like, the most precious thing is sort of stability. You know, the Ukraine invasion and then October 7th and everything that have followed it. Gaza, the destruction, the slaughter in Gaza. You know, China doesn't exist in a world without these things. And China is not. I mean, it's not helping with the Ukraine invasion, but it is not generally a source of instability around the world.

[B]

The.

[A]

The whole way the world looked, you know, five years ago was a little different, but it's very clear what's going on right now. And I think that changes the way I'm thinking about China.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

And that, you know, I'm sort of waffling. That's not particularly well argued, and no doubt some will have a lot of problems with what I just said, but I think the world naturally is turning to predictability. And whether it comes to multilateral institutions or just not changing its mind about, you know, major policies or, you know, having a demented, senile, crazy person in charge tweeting, kind of verging on nuclear threats in the middle of the night, the whole world is just looking so different from the way it was five.

[B]

Years ago, for sure.

[A]

And even a year ago, particularly a year ago, perhaps.

[B]

Yeah. So, I mean, for me, it's like. I feel like the hawks have kind of punched themselves out. Like, they've just been screeching so loudly for so long that they're just sort of tired, just kind of. They've lost their sort of emotional appeal to a lot of people. It just feels like all they've been doing is trafficking in alarmism. And meanwhile, you have these other people, these moderates, I mean, people who I've really gone out of my way to kind of highlight on the show year after year after year. I mean, Jessica Chen Weiss and Susan Thornton and Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchett and people like that. It's not like their views have changed a lot. I mean, they've just been steadfast. They've just sort of held to this sensible thing, mustering their facts and making good sense. Right. And I think they've just kind of outlasted the fever. They sort of survived the plague, and it's great. I mean, I feel like. Yeah, I'm delighted to see they held. They held to their principles. It's just. It's marvelous to see. I'm really.

[A]

I mean, I would just say. I would caution, though, that although I'M just reading up about the 93 year old leader of Cameroon has been in power for, you know, living memory, basically. And thinking about Trump, he might not go away soon, but when he does, he could, you know, have a stroke tomorrow. The hostility to China might return as a popular.

[B]

There's no question. Yeah. It's always, and I mean, come on. And China is going to keep its powder dry. It's not exactly assuming that everything is all Kumbaya now, right? No, absolutely not. Jeremy, earlier I kind of alluded to the fact that this isn't something we can just feel anymore. It's something we can actually measure. And there have been some pretty remarkable pieces of polling that have come out. First we saw the Pew poll come out and you have to look pretty closely at that to see the real shift that I was talking about. That was in, of course, the younger demographic, where it wasn't just in the United States. It's been pretty much every country that was surveyed, they see a big shift in attitudes toward China in a positive direction among the younger demographics. I think that is important because it's a leading indicator, it's not a lagging indicator because these are people who are going to move into the sort of center very soon and I think will bring their attitudes with them. The other poll just came out is the Chicago Council one, which, I mean, it was pretty unequivocal. The percentage of people who were supporting, actively containing China fell from 49% to 36% from 2023. The share that are favoring, you know, cooperation on global issues rose by quite a bit, by 10 points. I mean, what was really remarkable to me, though, was the partisan divide. It was so much more pronounced among Democrats than among Republicans who are still sort of clinging to the hard line. I wonder, I mean, first of all, what do you make of that? But also, I feel like Trump, look, he's all in on this G2 thing and so is Pete Hegseth. He repeated it in that weird tweet that, that he put out God Bless China and the United States of America. And Trump has changed his tune on China so radically. I wonder whether that's also going to shift GOP attitudes on China. And I wonder whether Democrats in the next the midterms are coming up. It's just a year out now. They're going to take up soft on China as some kind of cudgel to beat on Trump and the Republicans in the midterms or whether they're actually going to look at these polling numbers, like from the Chicago Council and realize that, look, American Democrats just have no interest in hearing this tough on China rhetoric anymore. In fact, it's not a good issue to run on anymore.

[A]

Okay, to start with the last question, I mean, I wouldn't put it past them, but if Democrats do that, that would be really, really dumb because there are so many. If you want to beat up on Trump, I mean, go look in the grocery store and look at the prices. You know, start with that. I mean, there's so many.

[B]

Well, we're talking on, on Wednesday the 5th, and you know, Zoran Mamdani just won yesterday with this intense message, this about freezing rent.

[A]

And, you know, so, I mean, and the corruption, I think, is another vulnerability which I don't think they're exploiting enough is the incredible corruption. But, you know, you never know, that might happen. But I think that would be very stupid.

[B]

Yeah, I agree.

[A]

But when it comes to the generational shift, I mean, I think, you know, the factors that we've already talked about are part of that. And, you know, people coming of age now, they're, they're coming of age as there is this narrative shift, so that they're sort of mutually reinforcing perhaps. But I think one big factor is Gen Z and the Alphas, whatever they call them after them, they are famously rather abstemious and sober, but a lot of them are quite hooked on TikTok and she and Timu and guess who Sugarman is. It's China. And you know, many of them also get their news from TikTok and similar platforms. And the picture you get of China if you just watch TikTok as opposed to if you read the New York Times and watch CNN or Fox, is, is remarkably different.

[B]

Yeah, it's infrastructure porn 24 7.

[A]

It's infrastructure porn. It's lifestyle that looks, looks pretty cool. It's gadget porn. It's drones, it's young people having fun. It's, you know, cool cities.

[B]

You know, but the thing about that is it's not wrong. No, it's not a lot. I mean, you know, I go to China a lot now. I mean, there's, there's an awful lot to ooh and ah at.

[A]

No, I mean, that used to be one of the drawers of America. When I first came to America as a, you know, a South African kid, I was privileged enough to come here when I was about 10 years old. And infrastructure was one of the things that we marveled at. We looked at, we went to look at bridges.

[B]

Right, right.

[A]

You know, in New York and San Francisco. So I mean, that's, that's a thing, It's a real thing and it's a, it's a, it's a powerful thing. I mean, that's why people like to build.

[B]

That's a very good point.

[A]

You know, so I, I think the generational shift is, is, is, is pretty clear. I mean, it's, it's also, you know, so many causes to everything. But I mean, I think the popularity of, of K pop is, has also made a lot of, you know, vanilla mainstream YC Americans, like the ones who live in Nashville that I know some of them, they are comfortable with Asian culture. And I know, of course Korea is not China, but if you're from a kind of real vanilla whitey American household, it's kind of the same thing. And if you, if you look same or look same. Right. So I think there's a sort of rub on effect of that of people just being more globalized and that's a real thing and that's spreading very fast because of the Internet.

[B]

Well, good. I mean, hell yeah. I mean, but you know, China has also not sat back on its haunches and just allowed this to happen. I mean, they have taken some measures. There's no more the Wolf warrior diplomacy stuff.

[A]

Right, that, yeah, I was going to say that. I think that that has been really important. That was such an abject failure as a strategy or whatever you call it.

[B]

Maybe not in terms of, of domestic confidence though.

[A]

Yeah, perhaps not. I, I don't know. I mean, I don't think it was productive for anybody. But, well, well, I mean, you know, okay, maybe let's leave aside the matter of domestic conflict.

[B]

Sure, sure, sure. I don't argue with you that, yeah.

[A]

It looked bad, but internationally it looked extremely bad and it made China seem petty and small and weak, just like Trump's antics do now to America. When you have diplomats tweeting things like an adolescent, it does not make the country look like a serious country. And ending that, I think was very important because the people who really read the Wolf warrior tweets, guess who it is. It's journalists and social media people who, who amplify them, you know.

[B]

Right, right.

[A]

So the effect was, was much bigger than, you know, it. It was never Xi Jinping saying things like that. It was little apparatus on the make like Charlie Jun, you know, who now has been sidelined and.

[B]

Yeah, I haven't heard that name in a while now.

[A]

No, he's like, he's been muscle. He's like, he's like Working in a bookstore in like Fung Tai Chi and Beijing or something like that.

[B]

No, worse fate. Hey. But it's not like though, that watching China stand up for itself has played poorly, though. I mean, that's sort of the logic in the three taco episodes that we've seen since Liberation Day or even before. You could even go back to when the Fentanyl tariffs first rolled out. But to me it looks like this. I mean, maybe I can illustrate this. I had a phone conversation with Tim Clissold yesterday. You know Tim, right?

[A]

Yes. Author of Mr. China, one of the great classic China books on China business books about the early reform and opening up period.

[B]

I mean, he's an amazing guy. I mean, he's absolutely brilliant. I mean, he's just so learned, has just deep knowledge of classical Chinese and anyway, he's back in the uk, but we chatted on the phone because we're going to have him on the show. But he was saying we were talking about the vibe shift thing. I'd mentioned that I was going to be talking to you about this. I just wanted his take on this. Is this happening? Is this happening in the UK as well? And he says, absolutely. He said that when he looks at comments on an article, say, about China's response to Trumpian tariffs just since April, when the Guardian or the FT runs like this, the comment section is overwhelmingly, he says, and I can attest to this, I look at them too, overwhelmingly in China's favor. Again, this is what you were talking about earlier. A lot of us has to do with, I hate Trump more than it has to do with, I'm grudgingly admiring of China, but there's a lot of, yeah, go China, right? Stand up to the bully. And it's really something that you wouldn't have seen a year ago. Right. And so, yeah, I take that as there's kind of admiration for the stiffened spine that China seems to be showing in the trade kerfuffle. Right?

[A]

Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, that of course is very different from some junior diplomat swearing about somebody complaining about Uyghurs being locked up. That's a demonstration of real power against a person. The whole world is horrified to find that they have to deal with his, his whims. And at last somebody says to the bully, I, I ain't going to take it anymore. Yeah, I think that's, that is absolutely a factor.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And, you know, hopefully a model for, for other countries in dealing with this regime, the one in Washington D.C. i'm referring to. Okay. So Kaiser, you know, we've talked a little bit about various essays and you yourself wrote one recently which has been very well received by all kinds of people, even some people who don't normally say complimentary things about you.

[B]

Yeah, that's a weird feeling.

[A]

Very complimentary things about this essay and it's called the Great Reckoning. So I, you know, I don't know if you need to summarize it briefly for your listeners of. They're too familiar.

[B]

I talked about it before on the show. Yeah. Yeah.

[A]

But maybe you could tell me about the reception you've had to the.

[B]

Yeah, it's. It's weird. I mean, I. People who. Okay, okay. I mean, I'm obviously super tickled that there have been people who I admire immoderately, you know, who like sort of my north stars in the China field who have written me really, really kindly told me how much they liked it. This is the best thing I've read since. Whatever. I mean, it's great. That's fantastic. People have been complimentary about the prose and stuff, which is really, really. That's the thing that matters most to me. What's surprising is. Yeah. From my usual detractors, I've gotten some kind things. I was talking about this with a friend of mine about why there has been so little hate of it, and they basically said, well, look, it's because you inoculated yourself. You had that line in there about how this essay is not going to rehearse the usual litany of Chinese malfeasance. It's not going to do what I call the litany of Chinese perfidy and explaining why that too often that's used as a coping crutch. And so that kind of headed it off. So nobody is going to feel like, okay, I'm going to play right into his hand and do the thing and appear to be coping because I'm now going to talk about Xinjiang and about the South China Sea and the Philippines and I'm going to talk about. So they haven't done that. They haven't really gone after me on that. So I think that's maybe something that I'll do from now on.

[A]

I mean, but maybe it's also a big part of the vibe shift is that people aren't going to be as exercised about it. The people are used to.

[B]

Yeah. I mean, I think there's a certain. To take that moral kind of high ground is a little harder now in the world after Gaza.

[A]

Yeah. And I mean, you're not actually really making a moral argument anyway. So you're not talking about morality, really.

[B]

No, I'm talking about psychology.

[A]

You're talking about, you know, psychology. Yeah. So, I mean, I think the other thing that is in some ways a blessing and is also connected with the vibe shift, but perhaps also connected with the feeling of less hate than you, you used to get for this essay is the kind of destruction of Twitter as a place where people in China discourse all went. And the end of that kind of, I guess it peaked, I don't know, some time in the pandemic maybe of that, that kind of Twitter culture of, you know, taking people down and like, very vicious arguments. And the China world was, I don't know about other kind of Twitter spheres, but the China world was particularly vicious, I feel, in terms of argument. So, I mean, a lot of the.

[B]

Real perps left that space.

[A]

Right, right.

[B]

And they either went to Blue sky or they went to the other the hell site of truth Social or whatever. And you, you're no longer really on Twitter much at all. Right?

[A]

No, I, I, I don't want to support an enterprise run by my compatriots. Fascist. So, okay. I don't want to generate content for Elon Musk.

[B]

Understood.

[A]

Like, I, I check up on it to see what's going on. And you know, I, I don't, you know, it's interesting to me that quite a lot of sort of China people are still quite active on, on Twitter, and I'm not sure why. I think people seem to be less sensitive to, like, the Musk toxicity somehow.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, that's, that's probably the case. I mean, you know, they're, they're all, all about China. Right? So they, and hey, I mean, you're making me feel guilty for still being there and for contributing to his father enterprise, but hey, well, you know, you.

[A]

You make your own bed and you got a line and I ain't telling you what to do.

[B]

And, and yet you are.

[A]

No, no, no. I'm just telling you what I'm doing.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, that's not something I would do. But, you know, if you want to go ahead and support, hey, so the one downside of a lot of the kind of usual suspects in the China discourse kind of abandoning Twitter is that they've ceded ground to a lot of people who, I don't know. I mean, I find their views kind of unsavory and there's a lot of just triumphalist stuff. The vibe shift is something I've wanted for a long time, but I think we both can imagine it going too far. I think that in some courses as well, corners of Twitter, it has gone too far. There's this, there's this. Yeah, I mean, this new kind of pro China hubris that has no patience at all for any form of criticism about China.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I mean, is that the world we're going to be living in now? Has the pendulum just swung way too far now?

[A]

Well, you know, I think first of all, you know, Twitter isn't real life, so.

[B]

Right, right, right.

[A]

And unfortunately, I think on Twitter that probably is the reality, because in addition to the usual, let's not talk about.

[B]

Twitter Twitter, then let's talk about real life.

[A]

But I mean, there are also, I, this is kind of relevant to everything. I, I think in addition to the usual suspects who are kind of paid or unpaid propagandists for Beijing, you know, people who, like big fans, let's call them big fans of Beijing, whatever they, they identify as. In addition to those people, you also do have now a growing number of people who remind me a little bit of like North Korea fanboys, you know, who, like China fanboys who may never have been there. So, you know, it's a, it's, it's a thing that is a cultural thing and some of it is going to be pretty gross, just like any fandom, you know, that is obsessed with, with something. So, yeah, I mean, things can go too far. And you know, of course, I know you inoculated yourself in your essay by saying you're not going to go through the usual litany, but you did have to mention the litany because of course, China still has a lot of things that are not good. And those things, you know, shouldn't be ignored in this new rainbow time. So, you know, things can go the other way. I mean, you know, I think, I think what we're seeing is something real. But the, if I've learned anything from the last five or six years is that my assumptions can be overturned overnight.

[B]

But, you know, hey, but occasionally we do get things right, and we actually seem to have gotten this right. And I'm delighted to, to be able to revisit the issue and talk through some of the pieces of it in this completely haphazard and random and unscripted way that we have.

[A]

You know what? Another thing I'd like to ask you actually, is, speaking of real life, is because you've, you, unlike me, you have actually been spending quite a lot of time in China recently. So how does this question look or feel from there?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, it's weird. It's. Most people are sort of surprised to hear it. I mean, my last trip back I was. I spent an awful lot of time with my bandmates, but they were just sort of like, huh, really? This is happening. I mean that's, that's weird. I mean, I guess I, I thought it was just a sort of a few ephemeral thing. I thought that we were over indexing on this TikTok refugees on RedNote. But yeah, I guess I've seen it at the edges. So I think the sense is still that the United States in its heart of hearts is still implacably and just deeply resistant to this idea of reckoning with China's rise. Hell, most Chinese people are. They can't get their heads around this idea yet. They're still so used to seeing the United States as sort of the benchmark mark. And yeah, I would say that this is still something that they haven't really gotten their heads around yet either. Yeah, no, I mean, it's interesting.

[A]

I mean, Kaiser, speaking of changing one's assumptions overnight, I mean we're speaking on the morning of November 5th and there was just a bunch of. There were just a bunch of elections.

[B]

Yeah. Zoran Mamdani. Yeah.

[A]

I mean an incredible blue wave.

[B]

Well, two states, two governor races. Right. Virginia and New Jersey.

[A]

Right.

[B]

They're blue states to begin with.

[A]

Okay. And, and plus mum Danny, plus Prop 50 in California.

[B]

Right.

[A]

So the people turned out enthusiastically en masse to vote for anti Trump people essentially.

[B]

Yeah, it was like 2 million people. Turns like twice the number of voters turned out in this mayoral race in New York. But. Yeah, but it was a super sexy race.

[A]

Right, of course, of course, of course. You know, and you know, I mean, generally speaking, my philosophy in life is things can always get worse and they almost certainly will. So I, I don't, you know, don't count on me for any optimism. But nonetheless, I, you know, we can't count United States out and we can't totally say China's, you know, got the recipe for future success just yet.

[B]

So, Jeremy, you're going back to China, huh?

[A]

Yeah, if they'll let me in, I'll go back soon.

[B]

Oh, they'll, they'll let you in. I'll make sure of it.

[A]

Yeah, have a word to your guy.

[B]

No, no, seriously, I can't wait to hang out with you in, in Beijing again. It'll be like old times.

[A]

Yeah, it's funny, I've recently been. Maybe this is part of my own personal vibe here. Too. You know, I've been feeling these pangs of homesickness for Beijing because, yeah, it's the city I've lived in the longest of any place.

[B]

Me too. Me too. You know, me too. I mean, you were there 20 years. Yeah, yeah, yeah, me too. 20 years there. If you add it all up, it's like 23, but, man. Yeah, I've never lived anywhere longer. And that's exactly what it is. It's. It's actual homesickness. And, boy, you are gonna. I can't wait to hear what you have to say when you. When you go back. I mean, take lots of notes and I will get you on the show to talk about your impressions, good and bad and ugly about our old beloved city. But it'll be fun hanging out there again. Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Man, you are not gonna believe the food scene. It's just off the hook.

[A]

I believe, I believe.

[B]

Dude, no, you say that. You say that, but it's just.

[A]

I have WeChat, okay? I have WeChat. I have WeChat. And I hate my friends in China.

[B]

All right, with that. Hey, let's move on. Now. I do this thing. If you've heard the show, I've introduced this new segment. It's not that new now. It's like a year now, but paying it forward. Is there somebody whose work you want to draw attention to? A younger person in the field?

[A]

I am going to recommend two people. One of them isn't. I mean, I'll use young in a generous definition.

[B]

The word as that would incorporate me and you.

[A]

Well, let's not get too specific, but two people. One in Berlin, one in New York, Echo T in Berlin, who's the organizer of the Berlin Independent Chinese Film Festival, which is going on this week in Berlin. And the other is J. Ruquin, who's originally. He was at bed, but he was a. A huge force in the indie film festival and film scene and a filmmaker himself in Beijing. Worked with Li Xianting and, you know, did a lot, had the website fan hall, and he is now organizing a film festival in New York in the middle of November. Also independent Chinese language film. Some great awesome films, documentaries, feature films, shorts. And it's a really exciting development, I think, for. For people interested in Chinese culture because unfortunately, these films are a lot of them. You know, you. I mean, you can show them in a sort of private setting in China, but you couldn't really have a film festival.

[B]

Speak. Speaking of Chinese independent film, do you remember like 20 years ago or 25 years ago, and I subtitled a film called La Yu. Like that gay film, right. So I was in Oxford just last week and I'm killing a little bit of time before I'm going to meet with somebody in an open air market and I suddenly sort of out of the corner of my eye I see a Chinese guy like push a bicycle up the street and he suddenly stops and he looks at me and he goes, kaiser Nihal. And I turn and look and it's Zhang Yongning who was the producer of that film of La Yu that I subtitled. It was just nuts. I mean he's. A lot of people in the film world would know him. That film was amazing by the way. It's like still one of my favorite Chinese movies.

[A]

Yeah, it's a very good film.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, it was like the first kind of gay themed film that kind of hit the big time in China. It was really, really good. I mean it had like some actors who went on to two really big roles. But yeah, yeah, it was just crazy just running into him there. And so, yeah, we chatted for a while. It was, it was pretty cool. He lives in Oxford.

[A]

I remember I watched that film on pirate dvd. That was how it was widely circulated.

[B]

Right, right, right, right.

[A]

Early 2000s, I guess.

[B]

Yeah. Okay. All right, let's go to, to recommendations now. What do you have in terms of Rex?

[A]

In terms of recommendations, I would like to recommend a book I've just been reading by my friend Richard Poplak, who is a South African journalist and he has written a book called Ya no man, which is a South African expression which is quite difficult to translate, which kind of means yes and no, which.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, no man, it's kind of.

[A]

Yeah, no, you know, it's one of those.

[B]

We say it all the time.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, no man, it's one of those expressions. Yeah, I know, man. I don't know, I can't explain it. So it's a book subtitled Growing up in apartheid era South Africa. So he, like me, grew up in Johannesburg, you know, Jewish family and this, you know, very weird childhood that we had that, you know, reading this book makes me look back on my own childhood and realize how weird I feel.

[B]

Like you snuck a reference to that in earlier when you talked about, you know, seeing and teemu and Sugar Man.

[A]

Right, right, right. Rodriguez.

[B]

I gotta, I gotta put a link into to that show that we did about that we talked about searching for Sugar Man.

[A]

Right.

[B]

What's the guy's name?

[A]

Well, he, his stage name was Rodriguez. Rodriguez, right, right, yeah, they're huge hits.

[B]

Great documentary.

[A]

Nowhere else and didn't even know Swedish film.

[B]

Swedish filmmaker made a documentary about this guy. It's called Searching for Sugar Man. Yeah, that was great. I really enjoyed that. Great. Okay, so it's called ya know, man by Richard Poplak.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

And it's a memoir of growing up in apartheid. Joburg.

[A]

Yeah. 70s and 80s Joburg, just like me.

[B]

Okay, wow. Fantastic. All right. My recommendation is for a podcast also by some South African guy with a voice that's sort of just like yours, but more annoying even. He's got a great partner though, with a very sexy Russian accent. So, Jeremy, your podcast with Maria Repnikova, who I adore, also is. It's called Rhyming Chaos and it's about, you know, you interview people who have lived through authoritarian takeovers and it's just great. I mean, it's really one of the shows I look forward to every week. I very much enjoy it. You guys do a splendid job. And yeah, it's a hearty recommendation. So if you miss Jeremy on Sinica, my God, listen to the show. It's fantastic.

[A]

Oh, thank you guys. I really appreciate that.

[B]

No, no, I mean heartfelt. Heartfelt. Absolutely heartfelt. Yeah. So that's, that's my rack for this week. And Jeremy, man, great to see you again. Let's don't be a stranger.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, sure. I'm always happy to.

[B]

Hey, man, I'm keeping the co host seat warm for you if you ever feel like there's a topic you want to jump back in on and, you know, ask questions.

[A]

Yeah, I'm thinking. I mean, yeah, it feels like you're.

[B]

Almost ready to do that again.

[A]

I'm almost ready. And also somehow I feel that like the, the changes we're going to see in China and that China is going to kind of enact on the world in the next few years are going to be really, really interesting and sort of.

[B]

You might even say it's a nation that is reshaping the world.

[A]

You might even say that you don't use that anymore at the beginning.

[B]

I don't.

[A]

Yeah, I don't.

[B]

I mean, I feel like that was a China Project era thing and I have a different psyop. It's the heat and light thing, right?

[A]

Yeah, the heat and light thing. Yeah. A different shtick.

[B]

Yeah. Hey, dude, so great to have you.

[A]

Thanks, man.

[B]

Let's talk again soon.

[A]

Okay, cool.

[B]

You've been listening to the Seneca podcast. The show is produced, recorded, engineered, edited and mastered by me. Kaiser Guo support the show through [e-mail] where you will find a growing offering of terrific original China related writing and audio. Email [e-mail] if you've got ideas on how you can help out with the show, or if you just want to say hi. Don't forget to leave a review on Apple Podcasts. Enormous gratitude to the University of Wisconsin Madison's center for East Asian Studies for supporting the show this year. Thanks so much to Jeremy Goldkorn for coming back on and chatting with me. Thanks everybody for listening and we will see you next week. Take care. Sam.