Slate Money: "Argentina First?" – October 4, 2025
Host: Felix Salmon
Co-hosts: Emily Peck, Elizabeth Spiers
Episode Overview
This week on Slate Money, Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers dive into three of the hottest stories in finance and business: the jaw-dropping U.S. bailout of Argentina, the U.S. government shutdown and its impact, and the largest private equity deal of all time—a Saudi-backed bid, channeled through Jared Kushner, to acquire Electronic Arts. As always, their lively discussion places the week’s headlines into a broader economic, political, and historical context, blending sharp analysis with quick wit.
1. Argentina’s $20 Billion U.S. Bailout: The “America First” Hypocrisy (02:28–23:18)
The Big News: Why is Argentina suddenly interesting?
- Felix’s long-standing passion for Argentina comes to the fore as the U.S. administration, in a highly political move, crafts a direct $20 billion bailout for Argentina via the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund.
- The story broke when a secret text from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to Treasury Secretary Scott Besant was photographed and went viral. The text revealed worries that bailing out Argentina was backfiring economically, as it enabled increased Argentine soybean exports to China—historically a key U.S. market.
Key Text Message Revealed (04:03)
“Just a heads up. I'm getting intel. This is highly unfortunate. We bailed out Argentina yesterday. And in return, the Argentines… are removing their export tariffs on grains, reducing their price, and sold a bunch of soybeans to China at a time when we normally be selling to China. Soy prices dropping further. This gives China more leverage on us.”
— Brooke Rollins, text message read by Emily Peck [04:03]
Context and Analysis
The Exchange Stabilization Fund, Explained (06:30–09:26)
- Felix: Recounts the 1995 "Tequila Crisis" (Mexico bailout) to explain the mechanics and historical precedent of using the ESF for such international rescues.
- This time, with Argentina, “It’s not like a backdoor bailout to Citibank … This is a straight bailout of Argentina. … Citibank doesn’t really care what happens to the Argentine peso.” [09:09]
Politics, Friends vs. Enemies
- Elizabeth: Points out this is less about economic entanglement (as with Mexico) and more about Trump supporting his ideological ally, President Milei, the lone “Trump-friendly leader in the hemisphere.” [10:07–11:39]
“In Trump’s kind of Manichean worldview, you have friends, you have enemies, and you support your friends and punish your enemies.”
— Felix Salmon [11:17]
Milei’s Austerity & The IMF
- Emily: Observes strong parallels between Trump and Milei: slashing subsidies, fighting labor unions, “doing all this stuff that the Trump administration also likes to do in the name of austerity.” [11:41]
- Felix: Points out Argentina’s inflation woes have “decades-long” roots in excessive fiscal deficits and money-printing: “It was genuinely fiscal… Milei said, we are going to stop running the budget deficits and … bring inflation under control.” [12:24]
Bailout, Libertarianism, and the Peso Crisis
- Elizabeth: Challenges the rationale: “If you're a libertarian… how does that jibe with a bailout from the US and the IMF?” [15:06]
- Felix: Explains Milei’s intended “abolition of the peso,” desire to dollarize, and why lack of sufficient dollars foils that dream. “Libertarianism is all well and good, but if your whole program is we want to become governed by the Federal Reserve… it is helpful when the Americans care about you.” [15:23–17:17]
U.S.-China-Argentina Soybean Triangle
- The Argentina bailout increases its ability to export soybeans, costing US farmers their Chinese market share. The Trump administration, ironically, is mooting a new bailout for US soybean farmers—“something like $50 billion” [17:17], but logistics are hampered by the government shutdown.
On Farm Bailouts and Trade Policy (18:04)
“It’s really hard to replace a reliable year-in and year-out cash flow… with a check from the government… It doesn’t really solve the problem.”
— Felix Salmon [18:04]
Why the Bailout is Unusual—and Poorly Designed
- Felix: Unlike typical US/IMF bailouts with “international community,” “conditionality,” and risk management, “you don’t just throw money at them. They have to do something in return … You don’t just take the entire Exchange Stabilization Fund, attach no strings to it, throw it at the most profligate country in the world.” [19:36–20:44]
- The swap line structure is unusual—because “the Fed would never do this” since it “makes no economic sense.” [22:01]
What’s a Swap Line? (22:01–22:51)
“Basically a swap line is we will give you dollars, and in return you give us pesos… it’s effectively just a loan, but it’s structured as a swap.”
— Felix Salmon [22:03]
The Ultimate Motive (23:01)
“The reasons for bailing out Argentina are just basically political. And by political, it just means that Donald Trump likes Javier Milei.”
— Emily Peck [23:03]
2. The U.S. Government Shutdown: Markets Shrug, Workers Sweat (25:36–37:06)
Markets Unfazed (25:36–27:48)
- Felix: “Markets like gridlock and they love shutdown. … The only economy that’s really being affected here is Washington D.C. and maybe a couple of other places with a lot of federal employees. The economy as a whole can crack on without federal employees being paid at least for a number of weeks…” [26:03]
- Elizabeth: Pushes back—real economic and logistical consequences: missing the jobs report, regulatory delays, contractors losing business.
For Workers, “It’s Not Good” (27:48–30:44)
- Emily: “Of course it matters”—not just 750,000 workers' livelihoods, but programs like WIC (Women, Infants, and Children), SNAP, Food Assistance, and crucial government statistics stall as far-reaching ramifications ripple out.
- Felix: Jokes about the WIC acronym, but highlights the government’s core role for society beyond the Wall Street ticker.
Broken Institutions, Morale Crisis (30:44–34:12)
- The Trump administration continues to hollow out federal agencies, not only via funding cuts and layoffs but also by manipulating optics—out-of-office replies blaming Democrats for the shutdown (32:12).
- Emily: Federal jobs long regarded as stable “middle class, solid kind of work,” are now anything but. [33:34]
Democrats’ Dilemma (34:12–36:53)
- Felix prods: Is there any upside for Democrats in the shutdown?
- Elizabeth: “Democrats have to … ask themselves: how far are we willing to let them go before we become obstructionist? … If they don’t push back, they will pay for it in the midterms. … This is the first time we’ve seen them use some of the similar obstructionist tactics that Republicans have.” [35:12]
3. Biggest Deal Ever: Jared Kushner, Saudi Money, and Electronic Arts (40:10–49:10)
The Deal Outline
- Jared Kushner is fronting a $55 billion Saudi-backed buyout of Electronic Arts, putting the trophy video game company under foreign (Saudi) control.
- “If it’s all done via Jared, then it’s very unlikely that the Trumpers will say that’s a bad idea.” — Felix [41:05]
- Elizabeth: Raises moral qualms about “being in bed with a guy who notoriously dismembered a critic he didn’t like,” while Emily and Felix highlight the lack of serious regulatory challenge despite foreign control of a cultural icon—“no one thinks that CFIUS will be worried about it.” [41:42]
Private vs. Public Markets: The Long-Term View (42:39–44:50)
- Felix: Argues that going private under a patient, well-capitalized owner can benefit video game companies, which operate on long development cycles.
“One of the things you need … is the long-term vision and patience to just say: we are going to build something great.” [42:44]
On Quarterly Reporting (44:01–45:38)
- Discussion of Trump’s musings to halt quarterly earnings reports, pivoting to broader questions of transparency, investor expectations, and corporate accountability.
Why Now? The Debt Market (46:27–48:49)
- Felix: “The reason to go private right now is the debt has never been cheaper… The spreads of corporate debt over Treasuries have never been lower ever in the history of capitalism.” [46:27]
- Fun fact: “Microsoft debt… is actually trading through U.S. Treasuries.” [47:33]
- Emily: “That seems really strange.”
Felix: “You are right to be puzzled by that.” [48:16]
4. Numbers Round (51:24–57:06)
33,000 (Elizabeth) – The Average Wedding Cost in the U.S.
- Noting that median likely much lower, and that “old money aesthetic” is the season’s top wedding “vibe.” [51:24]
- Felix: Reveals his own October wedding, marking 20 years. [52:33]
34% (Emily) – U.S. Adults Who Use Subtitles "Always or Often"
- Streaming sound design, multitasking, and “cultural literacy requires actual literacy literacy.”
“We read [movies and TV] now. … People are reading all the damn time." [53:22]
5.5 Million (Felix) – International Arrivals at NYC Airports in August
- Despite headlines about drops in international tourism, New York saw an all-time high for international airline passengers. [55:56]
Notable Quotes & Moments
- [09:09] Felix: “Citibank doesn’t really care what happens to the Argentine peso.”
- [11:17] Felix: “In Trump’s kind of Manichean worldview, you have friends, you have enemies, and you support your friends…”
- [15:23] Felix: “Libertarianism is all well and good, but if your whole program is we want to become governed by the Federal Reserve… then you do need—it's helpful when the Americans care about you.”
- [19:36] Felix: “You don’t just take the entire Exchange Stabilization Fund, attach no strings to it, throw it at the most profligate country in the world …”
- [18:04] Felix: “It’s really hard to replace a reliable year-in and year-out cash flow… with a check from the government… It doesn’t really solve the problem.”
- [35:12] Elizabeth: “At some point Democrats have to … ask themselves … how far are we willing to let them go before we become obstructionist?”
- [41:05] Felix: “If it’s all done via Jared, then it’s very unlikely that the Trumpers will say that’s a bad idea.”
Segment Timestamps
- Argentina Soybean Bailout and Background: 02:28–23:18
- Government Shutdown & Market Impact: 25:36–37:06
- Jared Kushner’s Saudi-backed EA Deal / Private Equity: 40:10–49:10
- Numbers Round: 51:24–57:06
Tone & Takeaways
- The discussion is sharp, skeptical, and frequently humorous—narrated with the hosts’ characteristic mix of insider knowledge, political awareness, and a nose for hypocrisy.
- “America First” is lampooned as “America First…unless Argentina needs our help,” especially when political allegiances align.
- The episode explores the limits of free-market dogma under duress, the pitfalls of inconsistent economic populism, and how both politicians and markets respond to manufactured uncertainty.
This episode is a can’t-miss for anyone interested in the intersection of international finance, domestic politics, and how bewildering (and sometimes absurd) global economic policy can become in an election year.