Slate Money – "Di-SaaS-ter Market" (February 7, 2026)

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This episode of Slate Money, hosted by Felix Salmon with regulars Elizabeth Spiers and Emily Peck, dives into a turbulent week for SaaS (Software as a Service) stocks—dubbed the "saaspocalypse." The hosts unpack why these software stocks are under pressure, the disruptive potential of AI (specifically agentic AIs), and broader questions of market sentiment, future business models, and financial forecasting. The team also discusses Disney’s new CEO appointment and the mechanics (and risks) of prediction markets like Kalshi, ending with a lively numbers round.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Saaspocalypse" – Why Are SaaS Stocks Cratering?

[02:40–12:00]

• Defining SaaS:

  • Emily explains: “It’s Software as a Service. … You subscribe to the software. It’s a service. … And your company pays for like 30 of these things. And it’s kind of like a hellscape, honestly....” (03:03)
  • Felix paints the macro view: SaaS moved from selling software licenses to recurring subscriptions, which increased profits and stock valuations. “The stock market worked out many years ago that … selling software on an annual basis was much more profitable than just selling it once.” (04:21)

• Why the Panic Now?

  • Elizabeth: Companies are worried that “agentic AI might replace software that they’re paying for on a recurring basis.” Anthropic’s new plugins are targeting B2B workflows directly, suggesting that AI agents could soon do what expensive SaaS dashboards do today. (05:25)
  • Felix: The existential fear is that “you don’t need 10,000 employees to have this dashboard anymore. … All you need is an AI agent, and you can buy like one license … and it can do all of that work.” (07:15)

• Disruption Is Nothing New:

  • Emily contextualizes this cycle of “disruption” within the history of software, noting that new paradigms (Internet, mobile, cloud) have always threatened incumbents—yet survivors adapt: “Undoubtedly these companies now will figure out new ways to monetize AI agents.” (08:45)

• Debt, Valuations, and Private Equity:

  • Emily shares: “A lot of these SaaS companies … borrowed a lot of money really cheap and everyone thought the party would go on.” With AI uncertainty and higher rates, there’s “a lot of distress in the medium sized software company world.” (09:16)
  • Felix: These companies are highly leveraged because PE loaded them up with debt. “This is an unwind of a trade.” (15:39)

2. The Real Impact of AI on SaaS and Corporate Workflows

[12:00–22:00]

• Stock Market Overreaction?

  • Felix: The Anthropic plugin was “just a tiny little plugin … with no fanfare. … It’s very much a sort of straw that broke the camel’s back thing.” (12:48)
  • The market is acting on sentiment and noise rather than clear signals: “Most market moves are noise. They’re not signal.” (15:21)

• AI as Both Threat and Opportunity:

  • Elizabeth notes that AI threatens the “very high switching costs” of entrenched SaaS products by making data more portable and accessible. (09:46)
  • Felix is skeptical, suggesting that this promise of total portability is an “utopia that … will never arrive.” (10:35)

• Debate: How Much Does AI Change the Game?

  • Emily notes that SaaS programs are still mediocre, and she's not seeing immediate improvement from AI plugins: “Most of these software programs are so bad … It doesn’t do what I want it to do yet.” (19:21)
  • Felix emphasizes that companies like Thomson Reuters were first crowned as AI winners but in a week, “the market can turn on a dime from you are the disruptor to you are the disrupted.” (20:14)
  • Emily: “It’s a moment of true disruption when we don’t know what the future will bring. … This is the third time I’m seeing it.” (21:30)

3. Disney’s New CEO – Parks Over Hollywood

[27:25–34:57]

• Josh D’Amaro Named CEO:

  • “He comes from Parks, which is where Disney makes most of its profits. … The Parks are doing great and up and to the right and everything else is … shrinking. So … let’s put the guy who’s actually making the money in charge.” — Felix (27:25)
  • Disney’s board structures a clear chain of command, keeping creative chief Dana Walden at Disney with a lucrative package. “They’re not trying to do some co CEO thing … demaro does have this sort of final say in everything.” — Elizabeth (28:47)

• Structure and Succession Politics:

  • Referencing Succession, the TV show: “Tom Wamsgans, the theme park guy, ends up on top and then … the kids get the prestige business.” — Elizabeth (29:44)
  • “I would rather have Walden's job than demaro's… you can be a loss center running the movies … just so long as all of that IP … can then flow over to the parks.” — Felix (29:54)

• The End of the CEO-as-Celebrity Era:

  • “The idea that a CEO can become an instant celebrity is over. I don’t think, first of all, that CEOs want to be celebrities … it just makes things worse for the company.” — Emily (32:43)
  • Reflection on exceptions: “What about Elon though?” “He is the exception.” — Elizabeth & Felix (33:39–33:41)

4. Prediction Markets and Kalshi: Gambling, Odds, and Losses

[35:59–44:56]

• Felix’s Oscars Bet:

  • “I bought Sinners to win best production design … at $0.07. … I can double my money and then get out before the actual result. … This is a trade, not an investment.” — Felix (36:06)

• How Prediction Markets Work:

  • Felix explains market-making: “If you just hit that bid office read … then you’re what's known as a taker. … The smart money is the market makers.” (38:02)

• Gambling Risks and the Median-Loss Paradox:

  • “What was reported this week is that the median gambler on Kalshi actually loses more money more quickly than the median gambler on sportsbooks…” (40:46)
  • “The mean losses on Kalshi are low, but the median losses on Kalshi are high.” — Felix (41:52)
  • Emily: “I caught that in the article … the article says median losses are high. And then Kalshi’s response was, average losses are low. And I was like, bro, exactly.” (41:59)

• Sophisticated vs Unsophisticated Investors:

  • Felix: “The sophisticated Kalshi investors are the ones who are constantly arbitraging with polymarket … and not sitting there just going, I think the Patriots are going to win, so I’m going to bet on the Patriots.” (44:18)
  • Emily: “If a sophisticated Kalshi investor is listening, … get in touch with me.” (44:43)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On SaaS/AIs:

  • “SaaS was always bad. Sasspocalypse is bad.” — Emily (02:40)
  • “Agentic AIs are basically AIs that manage other AIs … and that’s really the future of what software looks like for businesses.” — Elizabeth (05:59)
  • “All of these licenses are sold on a per employee basis. … What the stock market is freaking out about is … you can … buy one license for an AI agent and it can do all of that work.” — Felix (07:15)

• On the Market’s Irrational Moves:

  • “Most of the time most moves don’t really have a reason. … It’s noise. Most market moves are noise.” — Felix (15:21)
  • “We all know that AI is probably going to change shit, but it’s so cloudy, the outlook is so impossible to see that the market can turn on a dime… The truth … is somewhere in the middle.” — Felix (20:14)

• On CEO Culture:

  • “The era of the celebrity CEO, this is my hot take is over.” — Emily (32:43)
  • “If you are at a big public company and the board … is picking the next CEO, that kind of CEO celebrity … I think … there were a few of them along the way.” — Felix (33:55)

• On Iguanas and Numbers:

  • Emily: “2000 is the number of cold, stunned iguanas collected by Florida’s wildlife agency last week after a two day cold snap…” (45:20)
  • Felix: “I’m perfectly in favor of killing deer. I’m not in favor of killing iguanas.” (47:22)

• On Prediction Markets:

  • “Just beware these prediction markets because you are not as smart as you think you are, I think is the lesson here.” — Felix (42:12)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• SaaS market panic and agentic AI — 02:40–12:00
• Impact/overreaction of AI disruption & stock market psychology — 12:00–22:00
• Disney CEO succession and end of the celebrity CEO era — 27:25–34:57
• Prediction markets, Kalshi, and median vs. mean losses — 35:59–44:56
• Numbers Round (iguanas, Instagram florists, Stellantis EV charge) — 45:20–51:11

Tone & Language

The episode features the usual dry wit, skepticism, and camaraderie among the hosts, balancing technical insight with relatable analogies and personal anecdotes. The show skips jargon whenever possible and unpacks industry news in conversational, clear language.

Summary

This episode provides an engaging, skeptical, and enlightening look at why SaaS stocks are suddenly faltering—emphasizing that it's less about specific news and more about collective market jitters over AI, saturated with cycles of overreaction, speculation, and the blurry line between disruption and business as usual. The team connects the dots between AI’s real-world utility, corporate hierarchy shake-ups, and the hidden math behind gambling platforms. As always, their humor and perspective make even complex or technical subjects approachable for lay listeners.

For more on luxury gifting, check out the Slate Plus segment referenced at [00:51:52].