Slate Money: "Felix Hates Polls"

Date: October 16, 2021
Hosts: Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, Stacey Marie Ishmael

Episode Overview

This episode revolves around Felix Salmon’s well-known disdain for opinion polls, but goes far beyond to offer an insightful roundup of the week’s pressing business and finance stories. The hosts discuss record job-quitting rates in the US, escalating customer incivility, the Southwest Airlines meltdown, the drama and politics at the IMF, and the inherent flaws of polling as a basis for news or policy. The conversation is candid, filled with lively anecdotes, biting humor (often at the expense of polls), and critical economic insights.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Great Resignation" and Customer Rage

[01:38]

• Record Quit Rates: August set a record with 2.9% of US workers quitting their jobs. Felix notes, "[...] if you keep that level going for 12 months, it would be like 30% of all employed Americans would quit their jobs over the course of a year."
• Drivers of Departures: Emily attributes the labor exodus, particularly in the service sector, to rampant customer abuse:
  • “Customers are out of control right now... physically assaulting restaurant workers or retail workers who are just trying... to enforce mask rules. They're getting very impatient, just yelling at service workers...” [02:40]
• Broader Causes:
  • Isolation, uncertainty, and longer wait times due to labor shortages exacerbate anger.
  • US consumers are unused to paying “more money for worse service.”
  • Felix suggests pent-up pandemic frustrations fuel this rage:
    • "I always thought of America as being like this sort of passive aggressive kind of place... The idea that, like, when faced with this bad service, your reaction is going to be anger... that's just pent up frustration from the pandemic." [07:03]

Memorable Anecdote

• Stacey describes witnessing a customer scream at a JetBlue gate agent, symbolizing today’s “pandemic of rage”:
  • “It just really to me was like almost a comical example of the kinds of strains that folks are under... You have this kind of vicious cycle of no one feeling in control of what's going on.” [04:36]

Quotes

• Emily: “American consumers are like the most spoiledest brats on the planet. You’re used to getting really good customer service for like dirt cheap...” [07:27]

2. Southwest Airlines & Systemic Fragility

[09:37]

• Root of the Meltdown:
  • Debate continues whether vaccine mandates drove mass cancellations, but hosts agree systemic over-stretching and stress are main culprits.
  • Felix: “Southwest is built on a model of extreme efficiency. That's the way they can be cheap... And efficiency breaks very easily; it's not robust compared to inefficiency.” [10:46]
• Wider Economic Implications:
  • The “just-in-time” economy is proving unsustainable under new pressures, challenging decades of operational assumptions.

3. Pricing in Hotels & the Disrupted Consumer Economy

[11:48]

• Luxury Hotels Override Algorithms:
  • Hotels are seeing sky-high demand but can’t deliver value at peak algorithmic prices.
  • “We can deliver $350 worth of… value. There’s no way we can deliver a $950 a night experience.” [12:54]
• Contrast with the Housing Market:
  • “This apartment that doesn’t have like a fridge or a washing machine or a closet is still $4,000 a month.” [13:04]
• General Mood:
  • “It all feels very up in the air at the moment. It feels like we’re in a new kind of economy.” [13:21]

4. IMF Scandal – Politics, Tokenism, and Institutional Weakness

[15:35]

• Scandal Summary:
  • IMF head Kristalina Georgieva accused of manipulating World Bank rankings to favor China.
  • “She massaged some of the numbers so that it went back up to 78 again. The IMF ... is a deeply political organization...” – Felix [18:29]
  • Previous MDs (Rodrigo Rato, DSK) have been ousted for more egregious misconduct.
• Politics Over Principle:
  • Manipulating rankings is routine, but this time provoked a transatlantic rift.
  • “Her doing something very political ... is very much in line with the kinds of things you expect people in those positions to do.” – Stacey [21:34]
  • The US wanted her out; Europe, Britain, and others defended her.
• Impact:
  • The Doing Business report has been canceled—a "good" outcome, says Felix.
  • Both IMF and World Bank are now “weakened”, undermining global COVID recovery efforts.
  • “You need the World Bank and the IMF for that. And they’re both weak now.” – Felix [26:01]
• Tokenism Called Out:
  • Simply "trying a woman" for the top job does not resolve systemic problems.
  • “Tokenism is not a great way to try to run your organization in any context.” – Stacey [27:21]

5. Why Felix Hates Polls

[28:06]

• Polls in Headlines:
  • NPR/Harvard poll claims a third of US households under $50k lost all savings to COVID.
  • Felix rails against media reliance on single, small-scale (N≈3,000) polls:
    • “Polls are only useful longitudinally. Like, a single poll tells you nothing.” [29:27]
    • “Every single data point we have... says that [the] wealth of poor Americans over the course of the pandemic... has gone up by an unprecedented amount.” [31:09]
  • Cites selection bias (“people... terrible at self reporting, financial anything”) and lack of proper baselines.
• Deeper Data Concerns:
  • Stacey raises alarm over future data quality and policy-making as traditional data collection falters post-pandemic.
• Alternatives & Data Riches Ignored:
  • Felix laments companies using tiny sample polls when their own data would be far richer:
    • “Dear fintech PR people... You have data on this. Why are you doing a poll to find out what you already know?” [36:31]
• Memorable Quote:
  • “Nobody ever needs a survey of investor sentiment. You just look at the stock market…” – Paul Murphy (cited by Stacey) [37:40]

6. Numbers Round—Wit, Irony, and Pasta

[38:08]

1. Felix: 87% – Of 10,000 teens polled, 87% have iPhones.

   • Admits irony after lengthy anti-poll screed: “Having said that polls are terrible, I’m going to... segue from polls are terrible into a poll number.” [38:08]

2. Stacey: $25.4 Million – The auction price fetched for Banksy’s shredded artwork, “Love is in the Bin”.

   • “25.4 million for a piece that was shredded... half of it is ... out of the frame and the top half is in the frame...” [41:28]

3. Emily: $19.96 – For four boxes of “Cascatelli” pasta, invented by Dan Pashman of The Sporkful podcast.

   • “He set out to invent a new pasta shape. ... It's four boxes, one pound each, and it's $19.96. And it sold out.” [42:11]
   • Lively chat ensues about gourmet pasta pricing.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the pandemic’s impact:

  • “It all feels very up in the air at the moment. It feels like we’re in a new kind of economy.” – Emily [13:21]

• On polls and self-deception:

  • “People like… there was this huge... moment of joy. New Britain, New Labor, Tony Blair. And people liked Tony Blair... everyone got so caught up in how wonderful Tony Blair was that they genuinely believed that they had voted for him. Even if they hadn’t.” – Felix [35:19]

• On the enduring lure of Apple stock:

  • “If your big picture view of Apple is... this is a stock that is massively undervalued... you have basically been right all along, and I don't see any reason why you wouldn't still be right on that one.” – Felix [40:10]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Great Resignation & Angry Customers: 01:38 – 08:39
• Airlines/Southwest Meltdown & Efficiency: 09:37 – 11:18
• Luxury Hotel Pricing & Disrupted Economy: 11:48 – 13:41
• IMF Scandal (Georgieva, Doing Business): 15:35 – 27:56
• Why Felix Hates Polls: 28:06 – 38:08
• Numbers Round (Apple, Banksy, Pasta): 38:08 – 44:36

Language & Tone

The hosts maintain a lively, critical, and often humorous tone, skewering the week’s headlines, advising skepticism about “just-so” narratives (especially polls), and mixing serious analysis with personal anecdotes and playful banter. They deftly balance skepticism, economic rigor, and relatable storytelling.

For listeners seeking a sharp, skeptical take on the intersections of economics, business, public frustration, and international politics—with a dash of irreverence—this episode of Slate Money delivers in spades.