Slate Money — “One Dimensional Checkers”

Release Date: August 3, 2019
Hosts: Felix Salmon (Axios), Emily Peck (HuffPost), Anna Szymanski
Main Theme: Turmoil in business and finance driven by Fed decisions, Trump's trade tactics, and upheaval in the drug and data industries.

Episode Overview

On this jam-packed episode, the Slate Money crew covers several headline-grabbing business stories of early August 2019. They dive into the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in a decade, President Trump’s unpredictable trade war maneuvers, a massive merger in the generic drug industry, and fallout from the Equifax data breach settlement. The tone is animated, insightful, and at times incredulous as the hosts unpack not just what happened, but why — and what it means for the economy and everyday people.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fed Rate Cut and Trump’s Trade War Escalation

• Historic Rate Cut: The Fed cuts interest rates by 0.25%, its first cut since 2008 ([00:52]).
• Market Reaction: Markets are stable at first, but Jay Powell’s “awkward” press conference unsettles investors ([01:22]).
• Trump’s Tariff Tweets: Shortly after, Trump announces 10% tariffs on $300bn of Chinese goods, sending markets into turmoil and bond yields plummeting ([02:18]).

Quotable Moment:

“Donald Trump… has been playing one dimensional checkers on Twitter with China. What could possibly go wrong?”
— Felix ([00:18])

• Are the Fed and Trump Linked? The hosts ponder if the ramped-up trade war is an attempt to force more rate cuts ([02:48]).

Notable Market Data:

“…the probability of a rate cut in September went from 64% to 95% after the tweets came out.”
— Felix ([03:29])

• Global, Not Local Focus: The Fed’s statement this time used the word “global,” highlighting worries about the world economy, not just the U.S. ([03:56]).

2. Parsing Powell: “Mid-cycle Adjustment” Explained

• Powell’s Wording: The phrase “mid-cycle adjustment” signals a “one-off” or limited cut — markets tank, recovering only after Powell clarifies more cuts are possible ([10:08], [11:09]).
• Communication Challenge: The Fed wants to be “data dependent,” not market-driven, but Wall Street seems to predict Powell’s moves better than Powell himself does ([12:33]).
• Dual Mandate Deep Dive: Discussion of the Fed’s two jobs — maximizing employment and managing inflation. Rate cuts may help underserved groups like low-income workers and minorities ([14:04]).

Quote:

“There are so many traditional economic signals that would suggest, like, why are we cutting rates?”
— Anna ([11:56])

3. Trump's Economic Tactics: Strategy or Coincidence?

• Trade War as Economic Policy: Is Trump slyly pushing the Fed, or just acting out of frustration? The consensus: more “lizard brain” reaction than chess master strategy ([18:54], [19:57]).
• “Three Dimensional Chess” Myth: A sharp critique of ascribing deep strategy to Trump’s blunders:

“It’s one dimensional checkers is what he’s playing.”
— Anna ([20:43])

4. Big Pharma: Pfizer, Mylan, and the Surprising Cost of Generics

• Pfizer Spinoff: Pfizer merges its off-patent drug business with Mylan, narrowing its focus to new, patented drugs ([20:49]).
• Strategy Questions: Is abandoning generics risky? Generics and OTCs are steady, but patents are high-risk, high-reward ([22:34]).
• Insane Price Markups: Despite being off-patent, drugs like EpiPen and insulin see huge price increases due to weak competition and regulatory hurdles ([25:11], [26:27]).
• Quality Issues: Many generics are produced overseas, raising concerns over FDA oversight and drug quality ([27:08], [28:13]).
• Calls for Better Regulation: The need for smarter global regulation and the challenge of keeping generics both accessible and safe ([29:59]).

5. Equifax Settlement: $125? Think Again

• Settlement Disarray: The widely publicized offer of $125 per consumer after the massive Equifax breach turns out to be misleading ([31:20], [33:33]).
• Tiny Pot, Many Claimants: Only $31 million has been set aside — far too little if millions file claims ([34:24]).
• FTC Criticism: The hosts lambast the FTC for overstating the value of free credit monitoring, which they call nearly worthless ([37:12]).

Quote:

"The FTC is buying into this idea that credit monitoring services are worth hundreds of dollars… It isn’t."
— Felix ([37:12])

• Advice: Freeze your credit for real protection. Don’t expect real money from Equifax ([38:13]).

6. Numbers Round & Lighter Moments ([39:24])

• Esports Cash: $3 million — Fortnite World Cup winnings for a 16-year-old, with a share going to his team due to contracts signed as a minor ([39:26]).
• Sears Employees Lose Out: $125 — what some former Sears employees will get from life insurance policies post-bankruptcy, instead of potentially millions ([41:23]).
• Mosquito Mayhem: 100 trillion — the estimated number of mosquitoes worldwide. Discussion of their deadly impact and an upcoming “Mosquito Edition” teased ([42:12]).

Memorable Quotes By Timestamp

• On Trump’s strategy:

  "There’s this bias people have towards, you know, like powerful white men where when they make mistakes, you assume it’s strategic… No, they’re just dumb."
  — Emily ([20:05])

• On economic uncertainty:

  “He’s just this big global wild card that’s really screwing things up for everybody.”
  — Emily ([09:35])

• On the state of affairs:

  “Oh, my God, what on earth. We are even gonna have a whole Slate Plus segment on the latest college scandal in Illinois.”
  — Felix ([00:44])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed & Market Reaction: [00:52] – [11:56]
• Decoding Trump’s Actions: [19:45] – [20:47]
• Pfizer/Mylan Generic Drug Deal: [20:49] – [31:20]
• Equifax Settlement Rant: [31:20] – [38:58]
• Numbers Round & Light Topics: [39:24] – [43:16]

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The episode is driven by exasperation at the unpredictability of both U.S. economic policy and corporate America, with a recurring theme: the people who hold power (Trump, Equifax, big pharma CEOs) rarely have as much strategic depth as assumed. The hosts are articulate, occasionally irreverent, and always skeptical of official stories and corporate/agency PR, offering listeners both context and critical insight on major business headlines.

For Further Listening

The episode promises a bonus Slate Plus segment on a new college admissions scam involving financial emancipation of students—a sign of just how much is going on in the shady corners of the American economy.

Listeners leave with a clearer view of how recent policy shifts and business scandals are more muddle than mastermind—and are reminded, as ever, to freeze their credit and take big headlines with a grain of salt.