Slate Money: The Brexit Special Edition (Oct 27, 2018)

Episode Overview

This special edition of Slate Money, hosted by Felix Salmon in London with Emily Peck and Anna Shymansky in New York, centers on the complex state of Brexit just months before the UK was scheduled to leave the EU. Joined by political and economic insiders Alex White (Flint Global, former UK Treasury and JP Morgan) and Faisal Islam (Sky News Political Editor), the roundtable aims to demystify the ongoing Brexit "omnishambles." The discussion weaves through the ideological roots of the Brexit movement, the political deadlock in the UK, European perspectives, and the practical ramifications of no-deal scenarios, all with a lively, sometimes wry tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nature of Brexit: Ideology or Illusion?

• Brexit as an Ideological Shift:
  • Alex White frames Brexit as fundamentally ideological—more an emotional and identity-driven rupture than a rational, policy-based decision.
  • Quote (02:08, Alex White): “It’s probably an even bigger omnishambles. ...This is a big ideological shift. This is not necessarily a set of policy prescriptions that are subject to rational analysis...”
• Fragmented Motivations:
  • Brexit supporters are depicted as a loose coalition: global free marketeers (“like eight of those,” jokes Felix), nationalists, and anti-immigration voters, but without a consensual or positive vision.
  • Quote (03:31, Alex White): “This is, it is a constituency of view that is made up of lots and lots of different little tribes.”
• No Clear Vision:
  • The outcome was a rejection of the status quo rather than a unified plan for what comes next (“a vote against something, it wasn’t a vote for something” — 07:33, Alex White).

2. Public Opinion and Political Gridlock

• Static Public Division:
  • Despite years of turmoil, public sentiment remains narrowly divided.
  • Quote (04:27, Alex White): “Polling data at the moment says that Remain is narrowly ahead...But...public opinion has been more or less static.”
• Theresa May’s Impossible Challenge:
  • The panel highlights PM Theresa May’s (often lampooned) predicament: reconciling irreconcilable factions in her party and the country.
  • Quote (05:56, Alex White, jokingly): “She’s a great dancer...not a great politician, but it would have taken an amazing politician to be able to thread the needle...”

3. The Role and Perspective of the EU

• EU’s Consistent Stance:
  • The EU’s ideology is clear and non-negotiable: maintaining the integrity of the four freedoms—goods, capital, services, people.
  • Quote (09:56, Emily Peck): “It seems like the ideology at stake is the EU’s ideology, right?...”
• Europe’s Demographic “Waiting Game”:
  • Faisal Islam outlines how Europe might simply be waiting for UK demographics to shift as older, more Leave-inclined voters exit the scene (“Old people just die, don’t they?”—15:23, Felix Salmon).
  • Quote (15:24, Faisal Islam): “There’s no doubt the long...here’s the really interesting question...do [people] become more Eurosceptic as they grow older?”

4. Brexit Consequences, No-Deal, and Economic Realities

• Potential for Chaos:
  • The group delves into possible post-Brexit disruptions: trade blockages, supply chain breakdowns, and shortages.
  • The UK is described as preparing emergency infrastructure (e.g., converting M20 motorway into a lorry park) for a potential “economic embargo.”
  • Quote (29:42, Faisal Islam): “Already our government is spending money turning a 13 mile stretch of that M20...into a lorry park.”
• Economic ‘Gravity’ and Fantasy of Distant Trade:
  • Felix and Alex dismantle the idea that Commonwealth or US trade could realistically replace EU ties, citing the “gravity” theory of trade.
  • Quote (33:48, Felix Salmon): “It feels like a whole bunch of Brits were basically voting against gravity.”

5. Leadership Vacuum and Political Uncertainty

• Absence of Authority:
  • The podcast repeatedly returns to the lack of credible political leadership (“midgets who are ostensibly in charge of the country”—41:04, Felix Salmon).
  • Quote (41:28, Alex White): “...the caliber of individuals being involved [in politics is] not what it was 20, 30 years ago.”
• Every Scenario is Plausible:
  • Both a second referendum and a hard no-deal exit are on the table, as “routes” to all outcomes are now plausible (45:58, Faisal Islam).

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Brexit’s Purpose:
  • 02:08, Alex White: “This is a big ideological shift...not necessarily a set of policy prescriptions that are subject to rational analysis.”
• On the Fragmented Brexit Coalition:
  • 03:31, Alex White: “It is a constituency...made up of lots and lots of different little tribes.”
  • 04:03, Felix Salmon, wryly: “But that’s like eight of those, right?”
• On Public Opinion’s Stalemate:
  • 04:27, Alex White: “Public opinion has been more or less static...people are pretty much still divided down the middle.”
• On UK Parliament Leadership:
  • 41:04, Felix Salmon: “...looking around at these midgets who are ostensibly in charge of the country and...cannot remember a time when there was less leadership and less ability...”
• On Europe’s Strategy:
  • 15:23, Felix Salmon: “Old people just die, don’t they?”
  • 15:24, Faisal Islam (dryly): “Well, you know, that’s—No. Yes, basically. I mean, that’s...”
• On No-Deal Preparations:
  • 29:42, Faisal Islam: “Our government is spending money turning a 13 mile stretch of that M20...into a lorry park.”
• On Economic Gravity:
  • 33:48, Felix Salmon: “It feels like a whole bunch of Brits were basically voting against gravity.”
• On Diminishing Political Talent:
  • 41:28, Alex White: “...the caliber of individuals being involved not being what it was 20, 30 years ago.”
• On EU “Killing the Chicken to Scare the Monkey”:
  • 48:36, Alex White: “...the demonstration effect of the UK leaving...goes back a little bit to the Deng Xiaoping quote about you kill the chicken to scare the monkey.”

Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:09 – 03:10: Introduction & Brexit as an ideological shift (Alex White)
• 11:16 – 16:22: Faisal Islam on UK/EU split, generational divides, demographic shift in Brexit sentiment
• 19:07 – 21:13: Is Brexit “reversible”? Comparison to US politics and NAFTA renegotiation (Emily Peck)
• 23:23 – 25:40: Realities and politics of a no-deal “economic embargo”; M20 logistics (Faisal Islam)
• 32:02 – 34:19: Economic “gravity” theory, and Brexiteer trade fantasies (Felix Salmon & Alex White)
• 35:50 – 39:12: Lehman moment analogy—what would a no-deal “crash” look like? (Emily Peck & Faisal Islam)
• 45:56 – 47:50: What’s next—signposts and the critical Parliament votes ahead (Emily Peck & Faisal Islam)
• 54:13 – End: Numbers round, with a Brexit twist (all)

Notable Insights

• Brexit’s Successor Problem: There is no “positive” Brexit program to rally behind; Brexiteers never defined what would come after “Leave.”
• Incentives Are Broken: Standard political and economic incentives don’t seem to be driving action; tribalism, resentment, and distrust of experts dominate.
• No-Deal Risks Are Real: The group underscores the reality of auto-plant shutdowns and medicine stockpiling, not just theoretical risks.
• Europe’s Calculations: The podcast raises the possibility that some in Europe see value in making the UK an example to deter other exits—a risky precedent.

Final Reflections and Tone

• The show’s tone is laced with skepticism, dark humor, and open exasperation at the state of British politics.
• The conclusion stresses the profound uncertainty ahead and the unruly unpredictability of the Brexit saga.

For Listeners Who Missed the Show

This episode provides an accessible, candid, and sometimes irreverent primer on Brexit’s internal contradictions and external risks, cutting through media jargon and British political theatrics. Whether you’re a Brit caught in the “omnishambles” or an American drawing (sometimes false) parallels with Trump-era politics, the roundtable makes clear: no one—on either side of the Channel—knows where this story ends.