Slate Money – The Cathy's Dream Edition (February 4, 2017)

Main Theme

This episode of Slate Money — dubbed "The Cathy's Dream Edition" — serves as a semi-farewell episode for co-host Cathy O'Neill. The discussion is centered on three major topics: the role of big data and psychometric profiling in political campaigns (specifically Cambridge Analytica and the Trump election), the growing role of artificial intelligence (AI) in law firms, and the threats facing government statistics in the early Trump administration. The episode is lively, candid, and full of insider insights, particularly from O'Neill, a data scientist and author of Weapons of Math Destruction.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cambridge Analytica, Trump, and Psychometric Profiling

[00:50–13:11]

• Context: The hosts dissect viral conspiracy theories about Cambridge Analytica's alleged role in the Trump campaign and Brexit using massive troves of big data (notably psychometric profiles derived from social media, especially Facebook).
• Explaining the Hype: Cathy clarifies the realities and exaggerations of psychometric profiling, debunking the narrative that Trump's victory was primarily engineered by secretive data analytics.
  • “All of this is somewhat true, but mostly bullshit.” — Cathy O’Neill [08:15]
• Comparison to Obama/Clinton Campaigns: Both sides used extensive data; Clinton inherited Obama’s, and their data science teams were possibly more sophisticated.
• The ‘Big Five/OCEAN’ Personality Profiles: Widely used in corporate settings, not unique to Cambridge Analytica.
• Voter Suppression Tactics: The Trump campaign controversially targeted Democratic voters with demotivating content (e.g., highlighting Clinton’s “super predator” comment).
  • “The thing that Trump did, that Trump's campaign did, that was really offensive... was this voter suppression campaign.” — Cathy O’Neill [11:05]
• Moral and Political Implications: Debate over whether targeting opposition voters to suppress turnout is merely negative advertising or a more sinister manipulation.
  • “Morally, they're very different.” — Jordan Weissmann [12:32]
• Key Takeaway: While data targeting is real and will shape future politics, the narrative that Trump “stole” the election through big data is overblown.

2. Artificial Intelligence in Law Firms

[13:13–25:49]

• Anthropomorphizing AI: Discussion on IBM’s “Watson” and common misconceptions about unified artificial intelligence.
  • “It really is kind of a cheat to call... this constellation of programs Watson.” — Cathy O’Neill [16:03]
• AI’s Strengths and Limitations: Great at pattern matching in closed domains like chess or poker, but struggles with ambiguity, judgment, or ethics.
• AI in Legal Practice:
  • E-discovery: Automated document review started by replacing young associates' labor with software capable of searching and clustering relevant documents.
    • “It replaced a shit ton of people, right?” — Cathy O’Neill [18:16]
  • Predictive Legal Tools: Highlighting Tax Foresight, which claims to predict case outcomes with high accuracy.
    • Debate ensues over whether computers should be making legal predictions; potential for both efficiency and ethical concerns.
    • “There's way too much trust being given to this algorithm... The algorithm, of course, depends crucially on what kind of attributes it asks for...” — Cathy O’Neill [23:06]
• Ethical Considerations: Will AI-driven risk analysis discourage important but low-probability cases (potentially inhibiting legal innovation)?
  • “It's a tool that could lend itself to a practical rather than ethical approach to law.” — Cathy O’Neill [25:13]
• Speculative Futures: Hedge funds might use AI to bet on litigation outcomes, further financializing the law.

3. The War on Public Statistics in the Trump Era

[26:43–37:56]

• Threat to Statistics: The Trump administration’s aversion to objective data and budget cuts to statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and census.
  • “There's a threat here, both on the funding level and on the ideology level...” — Felix Salmon [27:26]
• Two Main Threats:
  1. Budget Cuts: Real risk to less-visible surveys (e.g., American Community Survey) crucial for understanding inequality and poverty.
  2. Suppression or Privatization: Fear that inconvenient statistics could be withheld, or outsourced to private firms (with non-transparent methodologies).
  • “Privatization of important information... statistics, like the census itself, started as an understanding of the public...” — Cathy O’Neill [34:26]
• Loss of Trust: Public skepticism in government data is rising, partly due to political campaigns undermining the credibility of statistics.
  • “68% of Trump supporters distrust federal data.” — Cathy O’Neill [35:23]
• Broader Economic Risks: If the integrity of U.S. economic data is questioned, it could harm markets and governance (as happened in Argentina).
  • “If you don't have a solid ground of like we believe what the facts on the ground are, no one wants to touch you.” — Felix Salmon [37:11]

4. Numbers Round & Final Reflections

[38:03–43:39]

• Cathy O’Neill’s Number: 81%
  • 81% of NYC taxi medallion loans ($690 million worth) are at risk of default due to Uber/Lyft disruption. [38:19]
• Jordan Weissmann’s Number: $24 million
  • Donations to the ACLU in one weekend after Trump’s “Muslim Ban” – six times their annual norm. [39:58]
• Felix Salmon’s Number: 12
  • The number of days since Trump’s inauguration (as of recording) – feels much longer to the hosts. [41:04]
• Final Thought: The administration is possibly leaving the Council of Economic Advisors vacant, reflecting disregard for expert economic policy advice.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Cambridge Analytica Hype:
  “All of this is somewhat true, but mostly bullshit.” — Cathy O’Neill [08:15]
• On Psychometric Profiling:
  “It’s an old idea… companies… have been using for decades.” — Cathy O’Neill [05:45]
• On Voter Suppression Ads:
  “They sent to African American Democratic voters... anti-Hillary videos that reminded them of the super predator comments from the 1980s.” — Cathy O’Neill [11:05]
• On AI in Law:
  “It's a tool that could lend itself to a practical rather than ethical approach to law.” — Cathy O’Neill [25:13]
• On Threats to Government Statistics:
  “If you don't have a solid ground of like we believe what the facts on the ground are, no one wants to touch you.” — Felix Salmon [37:11]
• Cathy's Parting Sentiment:
  “Thank you for all the kind letters to me because I love you guys. I really do.” — Cathy O’Neill [44:23]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:50–13:11: Cambridge Analytica & Big Data in Political Campaigns
• 13:13–25:49: Artificial Intelligence & Law Firms
• 26:43–37:56: Statistics and the Trump Administration
• 38:03–43:39: Numbers Round & Reflections

Conclusion

This episode weaves together themes of data, technology, politics, and ethics with a signature Slate Money blend of wit and candor. Cathy O'Neill—on her farewell tour—anchors the discussion in both skepticism and clarity, challenging hype around data analytics while sounding alarms about real threats to public knowledge and democracy. The rapport among the hosts makes for a deeply engaging listen, with practical, philosophical, and personal takes on the forces shaping finance, law, and society in 2017.