Slate Money: "The Data Detective" (March 13, 2021)

Overview

In this engaging episode of Slate Money, Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and special guest Tim Harford (author of The Data Detective) unpack the perils, promise, and psychology of statistics and how we interpret data—especially in the contexts of elections, the pandemic, massive stimulus bills, and the NFT craze. The conversation moves from statistical literacy and emotional responses to numbers to a detailed discussion on the economics and meaning of NFTs, with insightful anecdotes and sharp observations about policy, journalism, and human behavior.

Main Topics and Key Insights

1. Statistics: Power, Pitfalls, and Public Perception

(00:49 - 10:56)

Tim Harford’s Book: The Data Detective

• Purpose: To make the case that statistics are extremely useful, accessible, and don't require advanced expertise to interpret meaningfully.
  • “Statistics are a sort of radar that show us vital truths about the world and ordinary people... can make sense of them.” —Tim Harford (01:58)
  • Harford encourages readers to approach statistics with curiosity, context, and calmness.

Emotional Reactions to Data

• First Question for Any Statistic: “How is this statistic making me feel?” —Tim Harford (03:02)
  • Much of what we believe or reject about data is filtered through emotion.
  • Observing your own emotional response can help interpret data objectively.

The 3 Cs of Statistical Thinking (08:49)

• Calm: Don’t react emotionally to numbers.
• Context: Understand origin, direction (is it going up/down?), and scale.
• Curiosity: Aim to understand, not just win arguments. “The moment you’re trying to win an argument, you’re making yourself dumber.” —Harford

Polling Problems and Representative Samples

• Citing the 1936 Literary Digest polling disaster (06:04), Harford explains how large data sets are often flawed by “who’s missing” — reminders this problem still exists in modern polling and big data.

Trust in Media and Numbers

• Felix Salmon confesses that “it’s becoming increasingly difficult to trust news outlets” due to speed and lack of statistical rigor (09:45), and that you can’t rely on the brand alone for statistical quality reporting.

2. COVID-19 and the Challenge of Real-Time Data

(10:56 – 24:22)

Early Pandemic Data Gaps and Models

• Harford revisits early projections: “If nobody does anything... about two, two and a half million people [in the US] are going to die. Was that wrong? I don’t think that was wrong because half a million people did die and counting—and that’s despite a substantial response.” (11:32)
• The models “got the big thing right,” especially compared to the uncertainties at the time.

Infrastructure Limitations and Data Issues

• The US began the pandemic with severe data shortcomings.
  • “At the beginning... the United States... did not know how many hospitals there were.” —Harford (13:08)
• The COVID Tracking Project is cited as a shining example of statistical response.

Vaccine Data: Communication and Misinterpretation

• Debate over the “effectiveness” percentages for vaccines (e.g., 95% vs. 79%) and public misunderstanding.
  • Salmon: “If we just never had that statistic, we’d be in a much better place than we are right now.” (17:50)
  • Harford explains most vaccine trials measured prevention of symptoms, not deaths or transmission.
• Public health messaging has often been too cautious, leading to confusion about what the numbers actually mean. “Maybe we should be sort of adopting [a message like]: the vaccines are awesome, they work really well, they're super safe, everybody get one right now.” —Harford (23:32)

3. The $1.9 Trillion Stimulus: Rescue or Stimulus?

(25:58 – 35:47)

Scope and Impact

• $5.3 trillion in cumulative stimulus equates to about $43,000 per US household (26:36).
  • Salmon: “It hasn’t all been spent yet, but that's an insane amount of money.” (27:11)

Child Tax Credit as a Game Changer

• Emily Peck: Expanding the child tax credit to a refundable, monthly benefit will “cut child poverty in half”. (27:28)
• “It's just, I think it's revolutionary in how redistributive it is.” —Peck

What Does "Stimulus" Mean?

• Harford distinguishes between “stimulus” (filling an output gap) and “rescue” (aiding those in direct need), noting the bill is both.

  • “You could have a rescue package that wasn’t in any way a stimulus.... You could also have a stimulus that isn’t really a rescue package.” —Harford (31:30)
  • Ongoing economic debate about whether it's “too much” (overstimulating), with concerns about overheating meaning “inflation.”

• Salmon challenges the inflation concern: “We've had too little inflation for over a decade... it’s hard for me to see [overheating] as a really big problem.” (35:07)

4. NFTs & Beeple: Scarcity, Value, and the Art Market

(35:47 – 53:58)

What Is an NFT?

• “Non-fungible token... lets you [certify] a purely digital good.” —Harford (37:27)
• Salmon clarifies: The token does not certify a unique file, but rather points to a publicly accessible URL. Ownership is of the token, not the data/artwork itself (40:13).

Real Scarcity vs. Artificial Scarcity

• Parallels to signed prints and action comics: market value comes from agreed-upon scarcity, not inherent uniqueness.
• Most buyers of art do not receive copyright (46:05), a clarification many misunderstand.

NFTs & Market Dynamics

• Harford introduces Ronald Coase’s Durable Goods Conjecture (48:52), questioning sustainability amid infinite reproducibility:

  • “At what point does the market get swamped?... Maybe the people issuing them will get smart.” —Harford

• Salmon: The value may depend on discipline—e.g., if everyone issues rare editions, rarity loses meaning. He contrasts "cryptopunks" (fixed, scarce supply) with "cryptokitties" (overproduced, now nearly worthless). (50:08)

Asset Price Bubbles and Wider Economy

• If asset price inflation stays in collectibles rather than consumer goods (53:02), “that gives us less to worry about in terms of overheating.”

5. Numbers Round: Quirky, Telling Statistics

(54:16 – 57:58)

• Emily Peck: 75% increase in interest in psychics on Yelp over the pandemic year, reflecting anxiety and the search for certainty outside statistics. (54:22)
• Felix Salmon: $2,400 per pound: the value of baby eels, referencing historic and ongoing demand and their use as currency in 12th-century England. (55:42)
• Tim Harford: 30 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine sitting unused in US warehouses, despite global need; a commentary on inefficiency and the pitfalls of vaccine nationalism. (56:45)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• “The moment you're trying to win an argument, you're making yourself dumber.” —Tim Harford (08:49)
• “It's becoming increasingly difficult to trust news outlets... The velocity of news at every single outlet... is now so high that you can't just trust the outlet anymore.” —Felix Salmon (09:45)
• “If we just never had that [vaccine effectiveness] statistic, we would be in a much better place than we are right now. I hate that statistic more than words can say.” —Felix Salmon (17:50)
• “The statistics matter. They are telling us about this deadly threat... and how to direct our resources.” —Tim Harford (13:08)
• “How is this not all tulips? How is this not Beanie Babies?” —Emily Peck, voicing skepticism of NFT bubble (51:54)

Episode Highlights by Timestamp

• [00:49] – [10:56]: Tim Harford on making statistics accessible and emotionally-aware.
• [11:32] – [24:22]: Evaluation of data during the pandemic, successes and communication failures.
• [25:58] – [35:47]: Dissection and implications of the $1.9 trillion stimulus.
• [35:47] – [53:58]: Deep dive into NFTs, market psychology, and digital scarcity.
• [54:16] – [57:58]: Numbers Round—quirky stats illustrating the wider conversation themes.

Language & Tone

The tone is conversational yet analytical—playful, skeptical, and often gently self-deprecating. Jokes about journalistic foibles, delight in weird economic facts, and a sense of curiosity permeate the episode, mirroring the “curiosity” they advocate when dealing with statistics.

Summary for New Listeners

This Slate Money episode is a primer in skeptical, curious, and context-rich ways to interact with numbers in everyday life, from news headlines and pandemic models to NFTs and fiscal policy. It offers practical advice ("The 3 Cs") for navigating data, exposes the challenges of interpreting both scientific and economic statistics, and entertains with lively discussions about human folly and the endless inventiveness of markets.

Whether it’s applying a critical eye to polling, understanding how and why vaccine data is misinterpreted, or sorting through the hype of the NFT boom, this episode is filled with insights, historical context, and memorable moments for anyone who wants to be less manipulated—and more empowered—by the numbers all around us.