Podcast Summary: Slate Money – The New Year’s Resolution Edition

Release Date: January 9, 2016
Host: Felix Salmon
Guests: Jordan Weissmann (Slate), Cathy O’Neil, Eleanor Trickett (Editor in Chief, IBM.com & weight loss expert)

Episode Overview

This special New Year’s Resolution edition of Slate Money explores the behavioral economics and business behind perennial resolutions—focusing on weight loss, dieting, fitness tracking, and the rise of fitness "cults". Host Felix Salmon and guests dissect the changing approaches to personal health, the marketing of weight loss programs, the power of data and gadgets, and the economics of gyms, yoga studios, and health trends.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Psychology & Marketing of Diet Resolutions

• When do people join weight loss programs?
  • Marketers look for the "last straw": emotional low points trigger decisions to try Weight Watchers, diet apps, etc. (04:07)
  • "They're just hoping that they can find out what is that trigger moment." – Eleanor Trickett (04:07)
• Trends in dieting:
  • Decline in people on "formal" diets (23% of women, down from 35% in 1992), but 77% are trying “to eat healthy” (05:51)
  • “It’s less formal now—less 'I go to someone else and pay them monthly,' more informal efforts.” – Cathy O’Neil (05:51)
• The lingering power of rebranding:
  • "Dieting doesn’t work" messaging has led to new language around “getting in shape,” “eating clean,” etc. (07:31)

2. Do Diets Actually Work?

• Short-term vs. Long-term Success:
  • Most studies measure 6-12 month weight loss, while >2-year success is dismal (only ~2% keep weight off). (08:09)
  • "Nobody wants to have to budget their enjoyment." – Eleanor Trickett (09:11)
• What works long-term?
  • Establishing new habits and rules (e.g., becoming vegetarian for ethical reasons) is more successful than restrictive diets. (10:17, 11:14)

3. The Role of Environment & Willpower

• Environment over willpower:
  • Make it harder to indulge: hide treats, place fruit front and center (11:21)
  • “Make the candy in a locked cupboard... not on the kitchen counter.” – Cathy O’Neil (11:27)
  • Changing context—e.g., separate lines for chocolate at cafeterias, providing fruit while waiting—can dramatically influence choices. (12:14)
  • “You can reduce chocolate consumption almost to zero… by requiring people to line up for it separately.” – Eleanor Trickett (12:14)
  • Kids eat more fruits/vegetables if handed while waiting for lunch (12:25)

4. Fitness Gadgets, Apps, and Tracking

• Gadgets’ role in fitness motivation:
  • “There’s a really big psychological BOOM when you’re actually adding to a total… outperforming yourself from the day before.” – Eleanor Trickett (14:52)
  • Social and gamification aspects (leaderboards, step counts, competitions) are highly motivating. (15:41)
  • Felix: “It’s amazing how good it feels when I walk 20,000 steps in a day.” (15:41)
• Adherence & self-selection bias:
  • Gadgets/apps can fade in novelty; they attract people already interested in self-improvement. (16:25, 21:36)
  • Cathy: “Self-selection—people turn off this stuff when they’re not behaving well.” (20:04, 21:36)
• The future: Big Data in fitness
  • Under Armour’s partnership with IBM Watson to analyze data from millions of users—goal: personalized behavioral nudges. (18:18)
  • Skepticism about meaningful recommendations: “The kind of prescriptions you’re probably going to get is: go running every day and eat well.” – Cathy O’Neil (20:04)
• Does tracking help?
  • Recording activity/food intake is a consistent predictor of weight loss success. (22:23)
  • “The act of tracking… is the number one indicator for weight loss. Any kind of engagement… predisposes you to successful weight loss.” – Eleanor Trickett (22:23)

5. The Business & Culture of Fitness

• Home fitness tech and subscriptions:
  • Peloton as a spin class “cult”—combination of high-tech at-home bikes, live-streamed/instructor-led classes, monthly subscriptions. (26:43)
  • “The model is brilliant: sell the bike, then sell a streaming membership. It’s more scalable than a traditional gym.” – Jordan Weissmann (28:00)
  • “It’s a cult… you pay big money, and instructors become lifestyle gurus.” – Felix Salmon (29:03)
• Gyms & the New Year’s Resolution "bump":
  • Membership surges in January, thins out by Valentine’s Day—gyms profit by overbooking relative to real capacity (31:06)
  • "It needs to be big enough to cope with the January crowd. That's it." – Felix Salmon (31:25)
• Employer/Insurer involvement:
  • Many health plans offer subsidies for gyms/devices (32:05)
  • Notable omission: Obamacare doesn’t cover weight-loss programs, perhaps because “they don’t work.” (32:42)

6. The Economics of Yoga and Personal Fitness Instruction

• Why do yoga studios struggle?
  • Most are small, owner-run, with few teachers; many teachers are hobbyists with minimal pay/certification (33:11, 33:45)
  • "It's the 'Etsy effect': people undervalue their skills because they're passionate/hobbyists.” – Cathy O’Neil (33:47)
• Difficulty in making a living:
  • Studios and teachers face a labor glut, low pay, and high competition from national chains (34:59, 36:31)
• Role of trainers/coaches:
  • Many work in fitness for accountability after their own transformations (34:59)
  • “The most important thing is just to exist; your mere presence as a trainer is beneficial.” – Felix Salmon (35:39)
  • Caution: low qualifications can lead to bad advice and injuries, e.g., in CrossFit (36:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On breaking resolutions:
  • “We're going to talk about all of the other resolutions that people always break about a week and a half into the new year..." – Felix Salmon (01:46)
• On the importance of daily routines and context:
  • "Just by looking at your watch… those tiny little daily data points… make a difference.” – Felix Salmon (23:56)
• On fitness cults:
  • “For an exercise company to go national, they have to become a cult.” – Jordan Weissmann (30:06)
  • "SoulCycle instructors... are like lifestyle gurus, and you go to them for reaching some kind of state of nirvana.” – Felix Salmon (29:13)
• On changing standards of attractiveness:
  • “More people think that it's still attractive to be overweight. More and more people." – Cathy O’Neil (43:01)
  • "So if you can't get thin, at least just become a fat sex symbol. Which I'm all in favor of." – Felix Salmon (43:19)

Key Segment Timestamps

• Resolutions and their (inevitable) fate: 01:13–03:03
• Weight loss marketing, psychology & shifting trends: 03:50–07:44
• Why diets don’t work (long-term data & habits): 08:09–12:14
• Environmental nudges vs. willpower: 11:14–12:55
• Gadgets, apps, and the datafication of fitness: 14:00–20:54
• Self-selection, tracking, and tech skepticism: 20:54–25:10
• Social competition & Peloton/SoulCycle "cult" models: 25:16–29:55
• Gym economics and the New Year’s bump: 30:06–31:52
• Employer/insurer subsidies: 32:05–32:50
• Yoga business, personal trainers, and pay realities: 33:09–37:38
• Supplement fraud & listener numbers segment: 38:44–43:19

Final Thoughts

This episode doubles as a skeptical—but hopeful—exploration of what actually works for achieving fitness and financial resolutions, an insider’s look at the economics and culture of self-improvement, and a humorous take on how resolutions often go awry. The panel’s candid conversation, expert insights, and data-driven skepticism make it an engaging listen for anyone considering new year goals—especially those struggling to keep them past Valentine's Day.