Slate Money: "The Robopocalypse Edition"

Podcast Date: October 19, 2019
Host: Felix Salmon (Axios)
Panelists: Emily Peck (HuffPost), Anna Shymansky (Breakingviews)

Episode Overview

In "The Robopocalypse Edition," Slate Money dives deep into the week’s most significant stories at the intersection of technology, business, and finance. The hosts unpack the ongoing debate about robots’ impact on the labor market, the controversy around tax software and why Americans can’t file their taxes as easily as citizens of other countries, and take a skeptical look at conspiracy theories about "Trump chaos trades." The conversation is spirited, analytical, and laced with humor, providing critical context to contemporary economic anxieties.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Will Robots Take Our Jobs?

[00:12–15:12]

• The Political Debate:

  • Recent Democratic debate featured Erin Burnett asking candidates how they’d address automation taking jobs.
  • Andrew Yang: Advocates for $1,000/month universal basic income due to technological displacement.
  • Elizabeth Warren: Attributes manufacturing job losses to bad trade policy, not automation.

• Robots vs. Trade — Both Are Right and Wrong:

  • Manufacturing has declined since 1946, but reasons are complex, involving both trade and automation.
  • Felix: "If you’re a factory making a million widgets, you used to need a thousand people... now you only need 100... so all the machines... have taken the jobs of those 900 people. And that’s a productivity gain which is real." [04:07]
  • The number of factories shrinking points to offshoring as a major factor.

• Obsession with Manufacturing:

  • Manufacturing holds "political resonance," but most Americans don't work in that sector.
  • The main jobs cited as at risk (e.g., truck drivers) aren’t actually being automated at scale.
  • Anna: "Right now, if we’re thinking about policy that should be implemented right now, we actually can’t find enough truck drivers." [07:21]

• Middle-Class Nostalgia and Labor Market Changes:

  • Unions played a crucial role in making manufacturing jobs high paying.
  • Loss of middle-skill jobs and growing polarization of job market—high skill and low skill, with fewer in the middle.

• Gender and Race:

  • High-paid manufacturing jobs were mostly held by white men, adding a sociopolitical dimension to the nostalgia.

• Productivity Puzzle:

  • Despite the rise of automation, US productivity growth has been stagnant, prompting skepticism about the immediate impact of robots.
  • Felix: "Unless and until US productivity starts picking up, this whole thesis is something which is sci-fi... does not exist in the present." [09:42]

• Tech and Job Displacement—A Historical Perspective:

  • Technological anxiety is longstanding; every era has its own "robots are taking our jobs" moment.
  • Emily: "The number of jobs kind of holds steady... people get different jobs. Sometimes people are displaced entirely..." [12:31]

• The Real Policy Issue:

  • Failsafe for displaced workers is lacking; US has done poorly at supporting "the losers" of economic change.
  • Felix: "The losers have got nothing." [14:10]
  • Anna: "Very little evidence... that if we hadn’t enacted these trade policies, manufacturing would have just continued exactly as it was." [15:00]

2. Why Are Taxes So Complicated in America?

[15:12–28:55]

• ProPublica on TurboTax and Tax Prep Industry:

  • Long history of Intuit (TurboTax’s parent company) blocking government efforts to offer free, easy tax filing.

• Free File Reality Check:

  • Multiple free federal tax filing options exist, but are hard to find and use—intentionally, through "dark patterns."
  • Anna: "[ProPublica] acts as though you have this one company that has so much power and I think they’re overstating that..." [21:50]

• Unique American Complexity:

  • Every other developed country doesn’t require filing—government sends you a bill; US culture makes tax paying painful.
  • Felix: "In any efficient normal tax system... a tax system which works well should not require that." [16:36]

• Politicians vs. Corporations:

  • Politicians’ desire for a complex code isn’t the only blocker; TurboTax lobbies heavily to protect its profits.
  • Emily: "Intuit was able to really leverage that to make a lot of money and have Gene Simmons come to the Intuit party." [21:50]

• IRS Complicity and Challenges:

  • IRS doesn’t want to handle user-facing tax prep, helping keep the status quo.
  • Felix: "It is absolutely possible, even with a complicated tax code, to make filing your taxes incredibly easy and painless... every other country has worked this out." [20:07]

• Sinister Incentives:

  • Felix: "Grover Norquist has said this explicitly that he wants the tax paying process to be as painful as possible..." [17:57]

• Solution Proposal:

  • Felix (wryly): "The real way to make tax preparation easier and cheaper... is... Amazon Prime. If Amazon Prime filed your taxes for free, that would be a game changer." [26:24]

3. Debunking "Trump Chaos Trades" and E Mini Conspiracies

[28:55–39:09]

• The Story:

  • Vanity Fair piece alleges large bets in E Minis (S&P 500 futures) based on supposed Trump administration insider information.

• Analysis of Claims:

  • Panel systematically dismantles the story, explaining E Minis are too liquid, have position limits, and activity cited was misinterpreted trading volume.
  • Felix: "Predicting short term future movements in the stock market is the number one most reliable way to lose all your money." [36:39]
  • "Even if you knew exactly what Trump was going to say... Being able to trade that by like going long and short e minis would be basically impossible." [36:39]

• Media and Conspiracies:

  • The theory went viral because of collective willingness to believe the worst about Trump, even with no evidence.
  • Felix: "The fact that the conspiracy is even plausible... is indicative of the degree to which the entire civil society and government has become degraded." [34:55]

• Ultimate Verdict:

  • Theory doesn’t hold water; story’s publication is more a sign of current distrust and lowered media standards in the Trump era.

4. Numbers Round

[39:09–45:50]

Anna:

• "902 million" — Capital pulled from Ken Fisher’s investment fund after he made sexist comments at a conference.
  • Discusses the persistence of "gross analogies" in finance culture and changing norms.

Emily:

• "3.3 lbs" — Weight of a Charmin XL Forever roll (an absurdly large toilet paper product).
  • Commentary on P&G inventing big solutions to small annoyances.

Felix:

• "$425 million" — The amount Deutsche Bank tried (and failed) to raise via a loan secured by the font company Monotype’s intellectual property.
  • Finds humor in the idea of securitizing "Helvetica-backed debt."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Felix: "My job as host of Slate Money is not going to be replaced by a robot, but yours, if you’re in manufacturing, maybe it will be." [00:23]
• Anna: "This nostalgia for the high paid manufacturing jobs often overlook the role the unions played..." [09:10]
• Felix: "Productivity has been going... down. It would be awesome if productivity growth went up... this whole thesis is sci-fi." [09:42]
• Emily: "TurboTax... exploits that pain. They have all these dark patterns..." [18:31]
• Felix: "Even with a complicated tax code, making filing your taxes incredibly easy and painless... is possible, every other country has worked this out." [20:07]
• Felix: "[Predicting markets] is the number one most reliable way to lose all of your money." [36:39]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Robots & Labor Market: [00:12–15:12]
• US Tax Code & TurboTax: [15:12–28:55]
• Trump Chaos Trades / E Minis: [28:55–39:09]
• Numbers Round (Ken Fisher, Toilet Paper, Fonts): [39:09–45:50]

Tone and Style

Conversational, witty, and interactive. The hosts blend serious analysis with skeptical asides and relatable humor, maintaining an accessible and irreverent approach to some of the week’s most complex financial debates.

Final Takeaways

• Automation anxiety is as much about politics and nostalgia as it is about actual job loss; simplistic narratives (“robots are eating our jobs”) mask a complex reality.
• The complexity and pain of US tax filing is unique, unnecessary, and maintained by strong lobbying and bureaucratic inertia—not technological barriers.
• Media and the public remain highly susceptible to conspiratorial thinking in a climate of deep distrust—though basic financial literacy can debunk many such stories.
• Even the business of fonts and toilet paper can produce bizarre, telling stories about how markets and marketing work.