Slate Money Podcast: The Uninhabitable Earth Edition

Date: March 16, 2019
Host: Felix Salmon
Co-Hosts: Emily Peck, Anna Shymansky
Guest: David Wallace-Wells (author, New York Magazine)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on climate change, its catastrophic potential as described in David Wallace-Wells' best-selling book The Uninhabitable Earth, and the economic, social, and political ramifications. The panel discusses the scale and immediacy of the crisis, public response, policy options (notably the Green New Deal), and the future effects on global migration and conflict. Throughout, the conversation blends stark realism, urgency, and moments of wry humor.

1. The Catastrophic Climate Trajectory

David Wallace-Wells introduces his book and outlines the grim climate future:

• Humanity is facing potential warming of approximately 4°C by 2100 if current trends persist, resulting in $600 trillion in global damages (greater than current global wealth), widespread disasters, a possible billion climate refugees, and major declines in food yields ([01:45-02:54]).

  • Quote:

    "End of the century, if we stay the course, we'll have warmed by about 4 degrees Celsius... $600 trillion in climate damages... could mean hundreds of millions or even as much as a billion climate refugees."
    — David Wallace-Wells [01:45]

• These are not distant problems—impacts are already occurring and will worsen over time ([03:07-03:49]):

  • Quote:

    "We basically don’t read about what’s going to happen after 2100, but climatologists sometimes refer to it as the century of hell."
    — David Wallace-Wells [03:07]

• The majority of emissions have occurred in just the past 30 years, after society became fully aware of the problem ([04:16]):

  • Quote:

    "We've done more damage to the climate knowingly than we managed in ignorance, which is a huge indictment of the last 30 years."
    — David Wallace-Wells [04:16]

2. Alarmism, Human Psychology, and Action

Are dire warnings necessary, or counterproductive?

• Wallace-Wells insists the science itself is terrifying without exaggeration, and that fear is a rational response ([05:11]):

  • Quote:

    "I think the science is terrifying. You don’t need hyperbole... just a straightforward look at what scientists are projecting is enough to terrify anyone."
    — David Wallace-Wells [05:11]

• Statistically-presented risks often fail to mobilize people; fear may be more motivating ([05:11-06:07]).

• Most recent research trends towards more pessimistic predictions:

  • Quote:

    "I can probably count the number of papers that have made me more optimistic about the future on my two hands, and the number of papers that have made me revise my expectations... in the thousands."
    — David Wallace-Wells [05:55]

3. Economic Growth: Problem and Solution?

How does growth connect to climate crisis, and can it continue without fossil fuels?

• Economic growth surged with the Industrial Revolution, tightly coupled with fossil fuel usage ([13:32-14:24]).

• Growth may not be uniquely driven by capitalism, but by the exploitation of carbon-intensive energy.

  • Quote:

    "There are serious scholars who suggest... the lion's share of economic history is the result of simply adding the energy... in the form of coal and oil... reaping the rewards."
    — David Wallace-Wells [13:32]

• Some optimism exists: Carbon intensity per unit of growth has dropped due to renewables ([14:49-15:40]).

  • Rapid cost declines in renewables mean developing nations don’t have to rely on fossil fuels to build prosperity ([15:40-17:24]).

• Nonetheless, a massive and rapid transformation of infrastructure is required.

4. Policy: The Green New Deal and Market Solutions

The Green New Deal's Approach

• The Green New Deal is viewed as a statement of intent, prioritizing what’s scientifically necessary over what’s politically expedient ([18:14-20:27]).

  • Quote:

    "It's a piece of American climate legislation that puts the science first... Let's try to find a policy... that can help us achieve those goals. That's never been done before."
    — David Wallace-Wells [18:14]

• It links aggressive climate action with social welfare policies (jobs, healthcare), aiming to broaden appeal ([20:27-21:42]).

  • This dual agenda sparks debate over whether economic and climate priorities might come into conflict.

Feasibility and Political Realities

• There’s skepticism as to whether the Democratic Party is fully aligned; past precedent suggests parties can fall into line around a charismatic leader ([20:27-21:42]).
• Past climate messaging could have emphasized public health (air pollution already kills 9 million annually: [21:44-23:07]).

Seriousness of the Response

• The hosts note public support for the social policies woven into the Green New Deal, but also note limitations of U.S. voters when these are put to binding votes ([24:05-24:27]).

• Carbon taxes and nuclear power are needed, say some hosts; others express concern that Green New Deal supporters are overly skeptical of these options ([24:40-26:26]).

  • Debate on carbon taxes:
    • Wallace-Wells: "There's no country with a carbon tax currently has their emissions declining." ([26:52])
    • Anna Shymansky: "When Australia had one briefly, their emissions were down." ([26:56])
    • The UN says we need a global carbon price of $500/tonne; nowhere in the world is close ([27:11])

• Wallace-Wells advocates an "all of the above" strategy rather than silver-bullet thinking ([27:11-28:26]).

5. Migration and Climate Refugees

Future mass movement of people may dwarf today's crises and reshape geopolitics.

• More extreme climate, especially in the Equator, will drive hundreds of millions (potentially a billion) to migrate by mid-century ([03:49]; [33:04-37:19]).

  • Quote:

    "UN says that its low-end estimate is 200 million by 2050. Their high-end estimate is 1 billion, which is as many people as live in North and South America combined."
    — David Wallace-Wells [33:37]

• Current American/European responses to refugees are nativist and closed-border. Could this change? The hosts are mostly skeptical ([30:19-31:02]).

  • Social science suggests larger waves of immigrants sometimes increase rather than decrease acceptance ([31:02]), but trends toward “zero-sum” politics make broad generosity unlikely.

• The distinction between climate and conflict refugees is blurry; both are increasing and hard to attribute to a single cause ([33:04]).

• Wallace-Wells speculates about a future where carbon and climate change shape global governance and even new international institutions or military interventions ([36:09]).

6. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the terrifying new normal:

  "Hurricane Harvey was the third 500-year storm hitting Houston in three years. That is just like a completely different meteorological universe that we're living in."
  — David Wallace-Wells [11:35]

• On public health as an underplayed argument:

  "Small particulate pollution already kills 9 million people a year globally… that’s as many people as died in the Holocaust."
  — David Wallace-Wells [21:44]

• On climate economics:

  "$5 trillion is the highest estimate… for the amount of global subsidies being paid to the fossil fuel business every year."
  — David Wallace-Wells [39:19]

7. Notable Timestamps

• [01:45] — David Wallace-Wells summarizes The Uninhabitable Earth’s key message.
• [03:07] — The "century of hell" after 2100.
• [05:11] — Why the facts alone should scare us.
• [09:52] — Wildfires and extreme weather worsen now, not just in the future.
• [13:32] — Is economic growth synonymous with fossil fuel usage?
• [15:40] — Renewables offer a potential (but challenging) decoupling of growth and carbon.
• [18:14] — How the Green New Deal is different from past policy attempts.
• [21:44] — Public health’s direct, immediate climate stakes.
• [26:52] — Debate over carbon taxes’ practical effectiveness.
• [33:04] — Climate conflict and future refugee estimates.
• [36:09] — Speculation: Will climate prompt new international norms or interventions?
• [39:19] — $5 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies.

8. Tone & Atmosphere

Wryly apocalyptic: The episode oscillates between deeply alarming analysis and the hosts' wry, dark humor as a coping mechanism. The mood is serious, but the panel keeps the conversation energetic, skeptical, and occasionally hopeful about rapid human adaptation and innovation.

9. Concluding Numbers Round ([37:45–39:39])

• Emily Peck: $2,990 – price of the now-iconic Max Mara “fire coat.”
• Felix Salmon: 45% – drop in TV news coverage of climate change from 2017 to 2018.
• Anna Shymansky: 1890 – UK emissions are now below their 1890 level.
• David Wallace-Wells: $5 trillion – annual fossil fuel subsidies worldwide.

Summary

The Uninhabitable Earth Edition is a sobering but essential listen, exploring the scale of climate calamity ahead and the daunting challenges (and necessary urgency) for policy, economics, and social adaptation. Wallace-Wells and the panel bring the scientific, humanitarian, economic, and political stakes into clear, unsparing focus, while debating what is possible—and necessary—before catastrophe becomes unmanageable.