Slate Money: "Win-Lose" (May 29, 2021) — Episode Summary

Overview

In this episode of Slate Money, host Felix Salmon, co-hosts Emily Peck and Stacey Marie Ishmael, and special guest Joe Wiesenthal (co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots) dissect a turbulent economic landscape. The conversation centers around the nuances and societal implications of inflation, the shifting landscape of labor power, Amazon’s blockbuster MGM acquisition, and a landmark week for climate activism in Big Oil. The episode concludes with a lively "numbers round," highlighting memorable data points from the worlds of business and finance.

Main Discussion Points

1. What Does "Inflation" Really Mean? (00:55–12:00)

• Joe Wiesenthal’s Take: Wiesenthal emphasizes that "inflation" is being used in public discourse to mean different things: the technical rise in consumer prices and broad anxieties about the cost of living and wealth distribution.

  • “Your thesis here, and I love this, is basically that people are using the word [inflation] to mean two very different things.” — Felix Salmon (02:38)
  • Wiesenthal argues that in the current moment, we’re seeing not just price hikes, but a reallocation of societal and bargaining power—labor, in some sectors, is gaining leverage for the first time in years.

• Asset vs. Consumer Inflation: Felix points out the decades-long "asset price inflation," which has privileged the already-wealthy (housing, stocks), in contrast to wage or goods inflation.

  • “If inflation basically means things are going up in price to a degree that you can increasingly not afford... we’ve had that for a long time.” — Felix Salmon (05:20)

• Cost of Living vs. Inflation: Emily Peck discusses that while "inflation" may have seemed tame, the real cost of a middle-class lifestyle has soared due to other structural forces—like education and healthcare costs.

• Terminology Obscures Reality: Both Salmon and Wiesenthal argue that the catchall use of "inflation" can distract from a real analysis of labor power, unionization, globalization, and the actual beneficiaries or victims of price changes.

Notable Quotes

• “By calling everything inflation... we gloss over other structural issues that might change in society.” — Joe Wiesenthal (06:46)
• “These terms obscure more than they illuminate.” — Joe Wiesenthal (08:22)

2. Labor Power, Wages, and the Labor Market Shake-Up (11:39–17:22)

• UI and Labor Market Shifts: The hosts discuss the debate over whether expanded unemployment insurance (UI) is causing labor shortages—arguing that current wage pressures may actually be a feature, not a bug, as labor gains bargaining power.

  • “Maybe the argument should be... UI is forcing companies to pay a lot more. We’re kind of backdooring ourselves into the long-sought $15 minimum wage... let’s use this as an opportunity to tighten the labor market on a permanent basis.” — Joe Wiesenthal (12:00)

• Who Gets to Have a “Middle-Class Life”? Stacey Marie Ishmael contextualizes the complaints about higher costs (e.g., $258 Uber rides), noting these reflect shifts in who has power and how much labor must be compensated for providing “middle-class” services.

• Reassessing Assumptions: The panel discuss society’s ingrained idea that low-wage labor should always be readily available—challenging whether it is right, inevitable, or fair.

  • “We expected that you put a Help wanted sign up and you get a flood of applicants, but that’s not the same thing. There’s no iron law that says... that is the normal state.” — Joe Wiesenthal (14:47)

Notable Quote

• “Why do we have this assumption that X is available for Y price? ...It’s the jostle for power. There’s no steady state equilibrium... This is always a fight.” — Joe Wiesenthal (15:32)

3. Amazon’s MGM Buy: Strategy, Streaming, and Ads (18:19–30:00)

• Acquisition Analysis: The team debates Amazon’s $8.5 billion purchase of MGM:

  • Is it an “objectively insane price” (Felix Salmon, 19:37) for an aging studio with limited IP control?
  • Or is it a shrewd move to bulk up streaming content, support Prime retention, and fuel Amazon’s global ambitions?

• Streaming Wars Context: Peck and Salmon discuss whether Amazon Prime Video is as dominant in streaming as claimed—differences in metrics (subscriber numbers vs. hours streamed) suggest Amazon lags behind Disney+, Netflix, Hulu, etc.

• “James Bond” Banter: Light-hearted speculation about MGM’s James Bond franchise and casting rumors (“I’m holding out for Idris Elba.” — Stacey Marie Ishmael, 22:46) underscore the cultural cachet and product-placement potential tied to movie IP.

• Amazon as Ad Giant: The conversation pivots to Amazon’s rapid growth as a digital advertising behemoth, not just a retailer. Wiesenthal likens Amazon’s ad model to in-store product placement, while Salmon notes it competes with Instagram for transaction-driven ads.

  • “Advertising on Amazon is kind of like a grocery store charging for premium shelf space... we don’t really think about that as advertising, but that’s kind of what it is.” — Joe Wiesenthal (25:16)
  • “Amazon is creating a rival ad product to Instagram.” — Felix Salmon (25:54)

Notable Quotes

• “James Bond was always and remains the absolute pinnacle of product placement dollars, especially for the cars.” — Felix Salmon (30:48)
• “It is an advertising company, is a media company. Their advertising revenue is shockingly big.” — Emily Peck (25:05)

4. A Turning Point in Climate Shareholder Activism (31:11–40:55)

• ExxonMobil’s Boardroom Shakeup: The hosts dive into activist investor Engine No. 1’s surprising victory, winning up to three board seats at Exxon to push for stronger climate action:

  • “It’s pretty remarkable... The only time activist investor ever makes any progress is if they have some specific monetary agenda... almost any time there’s some sort of ideological or social agenda, it usually flops.” — Joe Wiesenthal (32:16)

• Institutional Investors’ Interests: Salmon explains how BlackRock and other passive giants, now focused on system-wide climate risk, supported activism not just out of principle—but to safeguard their broad portfolio from the existential threat of climate change.

• Outside Pressure Mounts: The Dutch government’s Shell ruling signals more aggressive official mandates, not just voluntary ESG efforts. Wiesenthal and Peck discuss whether this signals a future where governments impose climate requirements even if it harms the bottom line.

  • “Maybe less sort of like market stuff, maybe less money making opportunities and just more government setting the rules.” — Joe Wiesenthal (39:09)

• Systemic Trends: The group links these events to wider societal shifts—labor politics, market regulation, and value redistribution.

Notable Quotes

• “I think that there has been this sort of, very optimistic view—going green is not only sustainable, it’s good business... But it may just be... some things won’t be good for the bottom line. And that’s not the end of the world either.” — Joe Wiesenthal (39:37)
• “Sometimes it’s a win-lose.” — Joe Wiesenthal (40:51)

5. Numbers Round (40:55–end)

A mix of sobering, hopeful, and jaw-dropping stats:

• 702: The estimated true death toll from Texas’ February winter storm—much higher than the official count. (Stacey Marie Ishmael, 40:58)
• 37 million: Americans expected to travel over Memorial Day—up 60% from 2020, but still below 2019, and with higher gas prices. (Emily Peck, 42:35)
• $50 million: The reported fees earned by Adam Neumann’s lawyers through the WeWork saga. “When companies fight, lawyers win.” — Stacey Marie Ishmael (44:16)
• $100 billion: The total assets now held in cryptocurrency ‘stablecoins,’ making them a potentially significant, lightly regulated part of global finance. (Joe Wiesenthal, 45:25)
  • “Tether alone would be one of the biggest holders of commercial paper in the world.” — Felix Salmon (46:23)

Memorable Moments and Quotes

• “By calling everything inflation, people talk about the Fed and money printing, but maybe it’s something else. Maybe it’s the undermining of union power that causes people to perceive... their lifestyles are much costlier than that of their parents.” — Joe Wiesenthal (06:46)
• “If we’re actually serious about shifting allocations, then that means at some level someone has to get less.” — Joe Wiesenthal (17:22)
• “James Bond was always and remains the absolute pinnacle of product placement dollars.” — Felix Salmon (30:48)
• “If California comes out with really strong emissions standards... then capitalism will find a way to make money from that.” — Felix Salmon (39:16)
• “Sometimes it’s a win-lose.” — Joe Wiesenthal (40:51)

Key Timestamps

• 00:55 — Introduction of guest Joe Wiesenthal and discussion of his inflation thesis
• 05:20 — Asset price inflation vs. cost of living
• 12:00 — Unemployment Insurance and labor power dynamics
• 18:19 — Amazon’s strategy in acquiring MGM
• 31:11 — ExxonMobil’s boardroom defeat and climate activism
• 39:09 — Government climate action vs. market ESG
• 40:55 — Numbers Round (notable facts and figures)

Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is sharp, irreverent, and highly engaged, tackling complex systemic shifts—labor, climate, media, and money—with both skepticism and optimism. The panel rarely agrees unanimously, creating a dynamic back-and-forth that fleshes out the nuanced realities behind this week's headlines.

Listeners leave with new perspectives on the real drivers behind "inflation,” the resurgence of labor power, the logic behind mega-media acquisitions, and seismic changes in how investors, companies, and governments confront climate change.