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Mike Carruthers
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Thomas Weber
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Herman Pontzer
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Narrator
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Mike Carruthers
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Thomas Weber
The Nordstrom app.
Mike Carruthers
Today. On something you should know what people think when they see a typo in one of your emails. Then the new world of weather forecasting and why it's so important to you.
Herman Pontzer
This is so much more than just do I need an umbrella going out the door today? It's about being aware of the dangers and how to react to them and becoming weather literate. Trying to increase your weather liter.
Mike Carruthers
Also, some excellent advice if you're keeping a secret and how humans adapt to their environment. Height, weight, skin color, immunity are all adaptations. And there's more.
Thomas Weber
Here's a really fun one. Your spleen. So people probably don't think about their spleens too much. So it turns out that people who live in either in high altitude or this population that lives at sea, we see larger spleen size.
Mike Carruthers
All this today. On something you should know. We have a new sponsor and I'm really glad the timing is critical. Rocket Money. I use Rocket Money because, well, look, everything's getting expensive and well, you know, as I do that a lot of money, I mean, you're not really sure where it went, but it's gone now. And this is what's so great about Rocket Money. Rocket Money is a personal finance app that helps find and cancel your unwanted subscriptions. It monitors your spending and it helps you lower your bills so you can grow your savings. And you might say, well, how can they lower my bills? Well, when I first signed up, Rocket Money sent me this notification that they, not me, they could see if they could get me a better deal on car insurance. And for the bills you have, will they automatically scan your bills and to find opportunities to save? Then you can ask them to go negotiate for you. They'll deal with customer service so you don't have to. If there's a subscription you don't want anymore, they'll cancel it so you don't have to. That's worth it right there for me because I hate dealing with customer service. Rocket Money has over 5 million users and has saved a total of $500 million in canceled subscriptions, saving members up to $740 a year when they use all of the app's premium features. Cancel your unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster with Rocket Money. Go to RocketMoney.com something today that's RocketMoney.com something RocketMoney.com something something you should know.
Thomas Weber
Fascinating intel, the world's top experts and.
Mike Carruthers
Practical advice you can use in today Something you should Know with Mike Carruthers so how much harm can the occasional typo do? It's no big deal, right? Well, you might be surprised. Hi, and welcome to Something you should Know. Like everyone else, you occasionally make typos in your emails. It just happens. But does a typo in an email have any effect on the reader? When a researcher at Harvard Business School had test subjects read an angry email from a fictional sender, the reader saw that person as angrier when the note had typos. When he did the same thing with a joyful email, the typos made the sender come across as more joyful. In other words, typos act as an emotional amplifier. Since written communication is words only, there are no facial or verbal clues to give the reader any insight into the writer. So essentially, the reader takes whatever clues they can get, and typos seem to give the clue that whatever emotion you're trying to convey is stronger. The bad news is that those same typos also convey to the reader that you are less intelligent and that your response is being driven by emotion and and not by careful thought. But that may be okay in some situations. If a typo in a sincere email makes you seem more sincere, it may be worth the price of not appearing as intelligent. And that is something you should know. What is one topic that affects every one of us every single day, and yet we have no ability to control it or do anything about it? It's the weather. And in recent years, we've seen some very extreme weather. I know this all too well. We've had winds here whip up two fires in California. One of those fires literally burned right to my doorstep, and the other fire burned right to the doorstep of my business partner's home. And we know several people who have lost their homes and everything else. But it's not just extreme weather. Even with everyday weather, to some extent it controls your life. What you wear, where you go or don't go, what you do. We are at the mercy of the weather. And so knowing in advance about the weather can be very helpful. In fact, accurate weather forecasts can save lives, which is why Thomas Weber is here to discuss the Science of weather forecasting and what you need to know about it. Thomas Weber is the former executive editor of Time magazine and has taught journalism and publishing at Columbia, New York University and Princeton. He's author of a book called Cloud Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in weather Forecasting. Hi, Tom. Welcome to Something youg Should Know.
Herman Pontzer
Mike, it's great to be here. Thanks.
Mike Carruthers
So I've always thought weather forecasting is like the quintessential victim of negativity bias, in the sense that weather forecasting today, I imagine, is mostly right. But that's not what people remember. They don't remember when it's right, they remember when it's wrong. And so it gets this bad reputation.
Herman Pontzer
Yeah, forecasts are much better than people think. And unfortunately it's sort of a cultural joke, the forecast being always wrong. I spoke to some undergraduate meteorology students at Penn State just to talk about their career plans. And every one of them mentioned how many jokes they hear from their friends about they're going into a field where everybody's always wrong. But forecasts really are much better than people generally appreciate. Today, a five day general forecast is as accurate as a one day forecast from 1980. So I mean, think about that. We basically can look five times further into the future than we could in 1980. I'll tell you one other fact about forecast accuracy. If you look at something specific like hurricane forecasts, when the National Hurricane center predicts the track of a storm 72 hours out, the average error these days is less than 100 miles. They've doubled their accuracy on that in the last 20 years. And so these are just, they're amazing accomplishments.
Mike Carruthers
And those accomplishments are the result of what? Technology, Better computers, better models, what?
Herman Pontzer
All of the above, really. And what's exciting is we're really entering a new age of even better forecasts. If you think about modern forecasting, really, the first wave came in the 19th century with the advent of the telegraph, which basically let people in the west send word ahead. Here's the weather that's on the way. Because weather in the US moves predominantly west to east, so that was something. But the second wave in the 1950s and 60s, with the space Age, that is really where we started to get truly accurate weather forecasts. And that's because we had radar satellites and computers that could run models on them. And we've made steady progress since then. Now we're hitting a third wave, artificial intelligence. There's something called the Internet of Things, which just means data from all sorts of Sources that are plugged into the Internet, like your smartphone, which knows the atmospheric pressure or your car, which knows whether it's raining or not because your car turns the windshield wiper on and off. So that's a lot of new data to plug into the computer models that are already good. And then one more thing. In this third wave, we're getting knowledge from studying people and understanding how people use forecasts so that we can not just give them great information, but we can try to give it to them in a format that they can put to better use.
Mike Carruthers
Well, the assumption is, I think that people use weather forecasts the way I use weather forecasts. Like am I going to need an umbrella today? Do I need a coat or not? It's that kind of thing. That's how I tend to use it except for when there's a major emergency. But other than that, it's kind of easy day to day.
Herman Pontzer
Yeah, honestly, that's part of what got me interested in this story in the first place. I was just thinking about how I use forecast myself and I'll wake up and I'll ask my smart speaker to tell me what the weather is going to be today. And I realized I take it for granted and I think most people take it for granted as well. And forecasting is so much more than that. So I wanted to learn how they get made, but also how good they are and how to put them to work. And a lot of of what I wound up focusing on is the use of forecasts for dangerous weather. It's pretty important. Last year the United States saw 27 distinct weather disasters where the costs from damage were more than $1 billion in each of those incidents. And there were at least 568 deaths attributed to those events alone. And weather fatalities are often undercounted, especially for things heat waves. The year before there were 28 of those billion dollar disasters. So a big takeaway from me when I would talk to people in the weather world was that this is so much more than just do I need an umbrella going out the door today? It's about being aware of the dangers and how to react to them and becoming what I've been calling weather literate. Trying to increase your weather literacy to be able to understand what these forecasts mean.
Mike Carruthers
So let me ask you a question about meteorologists before we go further into the. Sure. What do they do? And what I mean by that is it seems like weather forecasting is a formula. There are models and, and computers that run the formula. So what do the people do and what makes a great meteorologist versus a not so great meteorologist? What's the human element here?
Herman Pontzer
So I think what you're talking about are what I would consider an operational forecaster. Not somebody in research, but somebody who's actually putting out the forecast that you might read or hear. I had an opportunity to embed myself in the forecast office in State College, Pennsylvan. What I learned when I watched people at work was the people in these office are really your local expert on weather. Right. The computer does the best it can, which is pretty amazing these days. But there are quirks of geography that people come to know when they become an expert in their area. So in every office, the people are very familiar with. With the local quirks of the weather. And when they see what comes out of the computer, they're able to look at that and say, okay, yeah, that tracks. Or, you know what? I think the computer is getting fooled a little bit here. So that's one way in which those forecasters are really important.
Mike Carruthers
Okay, well, I get that. But I guess what I'm wondering is, like, when these guys get together, and I'm sure there are plenty of women meteorologists as well, but when they get together, do they sit around and go at the convention? Go. You know, Bob, he is a meteorologist's meteorologist. He is the best guy in the business. And if that's true, if they do that, what is it that makes him the best guy in the business? I don't get that.
Herman Pontzer
I think that varies a little bit depending on the weather. You don't get to be a meteorologist in a National Weather Service office unless you've already demonstrated, you know, that you're pretty good. But within each office, there's a role called the warning forecast coordinator. And so those are the people who are really on the hot seat when it's tornado weather. And they're sitting there making the decisions about issuing tornado warnings that have all sorts of implications for people. The warning coordinator, meteorologist, that's one of the key people in that office. It would be fun to be able to say, and the best meteorologist in America, or the five best, are these people. But it's such a diffuse operation. There's local weather, there's hurricane weather, there's tornado weather, and there are people who specialize in each of these areas.
Mike Carruthers
Okay, I understand. It's more complicated than I guess I thought. I'm talking with Thomas Weber. He's author of the book Cloud Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos, and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in weather forecasting. The Black Friday and July event from Dell Technologies is here. There's never been a better time to upgrade. Now's your chance for great offers on popular trusted technology. You'll also discover huge deals on exciting new AI ready laptops like the Dell 14 plus featuring Intel Core Ultra processors starting at $699.99. Don't forget to explore big savings on top electronics and accessories. Plus enjoy fast free shipping and other exclusive benefits like Dell Rewards Premium Support and Dell care premium which provides 24. 7 support with no hidden fees or deductibles. Upgrade for a limited time only@dell.com deals that's dell.com deals I am hardly what you would call a trendy clothes shopper. I know what I like. I buy things that last and that I will wear for a long time. And so now I shop almost exclusively@quince.com and I've come to discover that a lot of people, men and women, shop there too because they have quality, well made clothes for summer that you are going to love. Like organic cotton silk polos. I've got a couple of those European linen beach shorts, comfortable pants that work for everything from backyard parties to nice summer dinners out. Here's the best part about quints. Everything with quints is half the cost of similar brands and how they do that is they work directly with top artisans. They cut out the middlemen so you get luxury clothes without the big markups. And Quince only works with factories that use safe, ethical and responsible manufacturing practices with premium fabrics and finishes. Quince is all about really great clothes at a very reasonable price. If you saw my closet, what you would see are the Quince clothes hanging right in the center and my other clothes they keep getting pushed to the sides and the same thing will happen to your closet. Oh and you're going to love their website. Stick to the staples that last with elevated essentials from quince. Go to quince.comsysk for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That's quince.comsysk to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.comsysk so Tom, when a weather forecast goes wrong and here's my favorite story of this. When I was a little kid I remember this so well. I grew up in Connecticut and in Connecticut we had a lot of snow days and one night the weather forecast was there are provisional heavy snow warnings in effect and I thought great, no school tomorrow. I'm not going to do my homework. So I didn't do my homework, and I woke up the next morning, there was not a flake of snow anywhere. And I went to my father and I said, what are provisional heavy snow warnings? And he said, well, providing it snows, probably snow a lot of. But it didn't snow at all. Well, why didn't it snow at all when it goes wrong? What if there is an answer to this? What typically goes wrong? And do they go back and go, oh, yeah, we missed that, or is it more fluky than that? And it just. We missed it.
Herman Pontzer
Sometimes it's a matter of a few miles. And I can tell you my own experience with this and something I've talked with meteorologists about. So I live in New York City, and I would say at least once a year, you hear, oh, my gosh, there is a potentially big snow event on the way. New York City needs to be prepared. And then no snow. It rains for a couple of hours. What that reflects where I live and probably some of the parts of Connecticut that you're talking about, the line between where it is cold enough for that precipitation to turn into snow versus fall is rain. If that shifts by five miles, it means New York City either gets big snowfall or New York City is completely untouched by snow, but gets some rain. So some of it is really just how localized some of the effects of the weather can be.
Mike Carruthers
Yeah, but sometimes it's just wrong. It's like, you know, it's supposed to rain and it was sunny. I mean, it was just. Sometimes it's wrong. And I'm trying to get a sense of was that a mistake or. It's just that we can't be accurate all the time, and sometimes things happen that we just cannot predict.
Herman Pontzer
Okay, I'm gonna throw a word out at you that you're probably gonna kill me for introducing here, but there's deterministic forecasting and there's probabilistic forecasting, and this is really inside baseball. But it illustrates a big point for the public trying to understand when forecasts are right or wrong. The public. Or if you look on your smartphone app, you see a little icon and it says sunny or has a little cloud or whatever you think, okay, the forecast for today is sunny. Then it turns out to rain, or, you know, might be the opposite. That's a deterministic forecast because it's just saying it's this or the other. Right? It's saying it's going to be sunny. It's not going to be sunny. What actually comes out of the computers and gets interpreted by the meteorologists is a probability, right? So sometimes you see this in your phone app or when the forecaster is talking on TV and they'll say a 40% chance of rain. So maybe you think like, well, 40%, I'm not going to worry about it that much. But then you walk outside and you wind up without your umbrella and you wind up getting slammed. Humans are notoriously not great at handling probabilistic information. Small probabilities seem like things that just definitely won't come true. But if there's a 30% chance of something happening, it's a one in three roll of the dice for that coming true. Meteorologists are actually working on how to try to better communicate the probability information around forecasts. But it's hard. I mean, our natural instinct is to want certainty, is to want to know yes or no. It's going to snow. It's not going to snow.
Mike Carruthers
Well, you mentioned this earlier, and it's something I've thought about a lot. And that is it's one thing to be able to predict the weather very accurately. In the cases of extreme weather, a major snowstorm, hurricane, tornado, that kind of thing, it's one thing to accurately predict what's going to happen, the damage it's going to do, but it doesn't tell the people who live there what they should do, should they stay, should they go. That's kind of the missing link in the chain is, okay, here's the horrible thing that's going to happen and here's what you specifically need to do. And then how accurate are those directions? I can tell you that when we had the big fires here, there were people, we were all told to get out, and many of us did. But there were people who stayed and fought the fire because the fire department wasn't here. And they stayed, fought the fire, and I have no doubt saved our home and other homes on this street that would have burned had they not stayed, even though they were in violation of the police directive to get out.
Herman Pontzer
Mike, you know what's becoming even more complicated is we all may face any type of weather at almost any time as the atmosphere seems to get more active and the climate seems to evolve. Last year there was a wildfire in Brooklyn. People living in New York City, they haven't really ever had to think too much about wildfire weather, but this actually happened. A more serious example, I might say the big heat wave in 2021 that struck the Pacific Northwest. And that was an event that went on for days. The forecasters, a Week out for the Northwest were warning that there would be record high temperatures 6, 7 days from those early forecasts. But hundreds of people died across Washington state and into Canada and British Columbia and Oregon. And part of that just reflects that the Pacific Northwest people there are used to dealing with rainy weather. Right? That's kind of their default bad weather. A heat wave of that magnitude, if you live in Arizona, I mean, it's not pleasant, but you understand what the effect of heat like that can be. If you live in the Pacific Northwest, you may not have an air conditioner. You may not even realize what health symptoms might occur if you're being affected by the heat. And that's one of the reasons that event was so dangerous and resulted in so many fatalities. This was new to the people who lived there. And so a big point for me in increasing your weather literacy is kind of being ready for anything and not just what you think of as your local weather.
Mike Carruthers
Well, I think it's very hard to know what you will do until you're actually faced with the evacuation order. You've got to get out. The hurricane is coming or the fire is coming, and people really don't want to leave their homes to wash away or burn.
Herman Pontzer
Well, it's true. I was talking to some law enforcement officers who have been involved in hurricane evacuations. The first responders, they're hearing this official information that's being passed on to them from forecasters through the state hierarchy, and they're hearing it's pretty serious. And they told me they'll resort to things like saying to somebody, okay, then here's a Sharpie. I want you to write your telephone number and your name and your Social Security number on your arm right now. Because you know what? I don't know if we'd be able to rescue you if it gets as bad as they're saying. There was a forecaster in New Jersey at the weather service when Sandy was headed to New Jersey. And he was worried that just the regular language of warnings wasn't enough. And so he put out this thing that said a personal plea and basic and basically said, this is going to be worse than anything you've ever seen. I would rather you take the steps that I'm suggesting. And then if it turns out to not be so bad, call me up and yell at me. I will be fine with that because at least you will be there to call me and yell at me. I'm willing to take that heat. I do not want to think about what happens to you if you don't heed the warnings. And so listening to a forecast really means accepting that there's some uncertainty. It might not turn out to be as bad as the forecast is saying, but do you really want to take that chance?
Mike Carruthers
Well, that's a question everybody's going to have to ask and answer for themselves. But I certainly like hearing how the weather forecasting business has improved and how not only are they trying to improve how they predict the weather, but also what that information means to the public. I've been talking with Thomas Weber. He is the former executive editor of Time Magazine and author of the book Cloud, Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting. And there's a link to that book in the show notes. Tom, thank you for being here.
Herman Pontzer
Thanks Mike. It's good to talk about it.
Narrator
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Mike Carruthers
So here's something I bet you haven't thought much about. But human beings biologically adap adapt in ways that are fascinating based on where they are or where they're from. Through evolution, populations adapt to fit the environment. From the color and shade of your skin to the size of your spleen to how tall you are. These adaptations can sometimes be very subtle and even invisible, but interesting and worth understanding nonetheless. And here to help us understand it is Herman Pontzer. He is a professor of evolutionary anthropology and global health at Duke University. He's conducted research all over the world, and that research has been covered in the New York Times, the BBC, the Washington Post, the Atlantic, and Scientific American. He's author of a book called how youw Unique Body Really Works and why Our Biology Unites Us. Hi Herman. Welcome to Something youg Should Know.
Thomas Weber
Thanks for having me.
Mike Carruthers
So explain a little deeper here what you mean by how we adapt and why this is important.
Thomas Weber
Every part of our body is this interplay of evolutionary adaptation in the way things are shaped and the way things work, but also our adaptability in terms of how our unique genetics, our DNA, interacts with the environments that we grow up in and we live in to kind of make us unique. Right? So there's, you know, you can find books out there on human physiology and that kind of thing, and that'll tell you how some sort of average human's bodies works. But of course, each of us is unique. We're all different. So what I want to talk about and, you know, open people's eyes to just how adaptable we are and how that adaptability makes each of us unique.
Mike Carruthers
And so to get a better understanding of that, give me an example of how the body, the human body, adapts to its environment.
Thomas Weber
Here's a fun one. Something as simple as height, for example. So, you know, of course, we all know how tall we are and we all think we understand sort of why that is. You know, your genetics obviously plays a big part, but there's sort of layers of adaptability there. So first of all, we're all sort of human sized and not giraffe sized or mouse sized because of the, you know, the evolution of our species put us in the human range of where we are. And so, you know, people are taller and shorter around the world. But, you know, there's a human size and so that's the sort of old evolutionary adaptation. But then within that, as we grow up, you know, the amount of nutrition you get is going to affect how well your body is able to, you know, to build your, your skeleton and build your body. And so your genetics plays a role too. If you have tall parents, you're going to have tall. You're more likely to be tall. So you have this sort of interplay. There's. And then what's interesting then is if we look across the world, and as an anthropologist, I get to work with communities all over the world, when we find local populations, sometimes there are local, very kind of regionally specific selection pressures that favor a very tall, thin, or a shorter, stockier build. So, for example, working in northern Kenya, we work with a population called the Dosnich, and they live with their herds. They're sort of goats and cattle and camels, and they tend to grow just tall and thin. And that's an adaptation in that local environment to be able to thermoregulate just to stay cool in really hot environments. And there's a funny story that when we started working there, we were talking to one of the local charities that was trying to do food supplementation in that community. And the guy we talked to said, oh, it's terrible. All the kids here, about 60% of the kids are malnourished and there's just nothing we can do about it. We're doing these food supplementations and we can't seem to change the way they grow. And we were able to actually get a hold of growth chart data from the local health clinic of this population. And when we had data from sort of thousands of kids, we were able to see that actually these kids weren't malnourished, they're just growing. That local population is sort of adapted to live in a very hot environment, and they're adapted to have a tall, thin body build. And so you know what that looks like on a growth chart is that you're not getting enough nutrition because you look too skinny for how tall you are. But actually that's an example of local adaptation to that particular environment. So we look across the body, all of our different organs, systems, and everything about us has a story like that to tell, and it helps understand what we're about.
Mike Carruthers
So in that case, if you took someone from here and put them there and they were not tall and thin, would they relatively quickly become tall and thin because of the environment, the lifestyle, the diet, or is the tall and thinness that that would take generations for that to happen. Yeah.
Thomas Weber
So in that case, that kind of local adaptation, that would take generations. That's right. So populations, we tend to kind of get it a little bit wrong. I think when we think about why populations differ from one another, we tend to think of these big kind of racial categories. Race is actually not a biologically coherent category. What you see when you look around the world is actually most folks are all the same. Most of the gene variants that we'd find in one population, we'll find in another. But every now and then there are in different systems, in different populations, there are conditions that will favor, you know, particular genetic variants. We call them alleles, and they'll be those variants because they're adapted, because they improve survival and reproduction, they'll be favored in that environment to become more common. And what happens over time is those alleles, those gene variants that in this case tend to make people grow up taller and thinner will be more common. So when we do a survey of that local population, we'll see mostly people with those gene variants. Now, if you or I were to move there, if we don't carry those gene variants, of course we're not going to grow up like that. And our kids won't grow up like that if they don't have those gene variants. Those, that sort of change in what gene variants become really common takes generations.
Mike Carruthers
And generations of mixing with that population and then becoming more like them.
Thomas Weber
Well, so yes, there would be gene flow, there'd be intermarriage and. But it wouldn't take just that because those tall, thin alleles are also present here in our American population. They're just less frequent. Right. So of course we can all think about people who grow up a bit tall and thin. They just, that just happens to be the way their bodies grow versus people who might grow up a bit shorter and stockier. Well, so those tall, thin variants are in every population, but they just become really common there so that everybody has them. As opposed to here in the United States, for example, where it's much less common.
Mike Carruthers
Well, what about the common experience now of seems that people in, in the west are much more overweight than they used to be?
Thomas Weber
Well, that's a great question. So that gets us to the sort of evolutionary history of our diet and why it is that we, we tend to overeat. People in the Western, you know, industrialized countries tend to overeat. What is it about that? And that's another story of sort of how our digestive systems evolved and then how they adapt to Our different food environments. So of course humans are adapted to a human diet. What does that mean? Well, it's actually quite variable what humans are able to thrive on. People are eating a whole mix of different things. But we can see that in our digestive system. The human digestive system is built to thrive on any mix of animal and plant foods. Why is it then that we are tending to have this overweight issue, this obesity issue in the US In Europe and other industrialized countries? Is it the diet? Well, it probably isn't any one thing about the diet because humans can eat a range of things and be healthy. We see that over and over again in other sort of traditional populations. But what we can find is that, ah, okay, the foods that we have sort of engineered and filled our, our supermarkets with here in the U.S. for example, are foods that light up our brain's reward system and kind of push us to overeat. And you know, the way that we learned that is through of course, experiments here, studies here in the US Kind of controlled lab studies where you can watch people's brains light up when they eat particular foods. But another source of information on that is, well, we can test the idea, for example, that carbohydrates or sugars are the really the root cause of obesity. When we look around the globe, we can find lots of traditional societies that are eating lots of high carb diets and they don't have an obesity issue at all. So again, humans can thrive on a range of foods. We see that again and again around the world and all through time. But the foods that we've engineered for ourselves and fill our supermarkets with are, some of them are really, you know, you probably can imagine which ones they are. You know, the donuts and the chips and everything else that's sort of engineered to be hyper delicious.
Mike Carruthers
Yeah, but as we've talked about here before, not everybody succumbs to that. Not everybody becomes overweight because of those engineered foods.
Thomas Weber
Why is that? Ah, well that comes down to your unique genetics. Are you born with, you know, did you happen to get lucky and get gene variants from mom and dad that make your, build your brain and build your reward system sort of less responsive to these cues that push other people to sort of overeat? If you did get those alleles, then, lucky you, you're less likely to be, you know, just to struggle with your weight in adulthood. If you didn't get those alleles, then you're very likely to be kind of struggling with portion control and that kind of thing. So that's why some people have a problem to other people's don't. It's possible, to your point that, you know, given enough time, and this would have to be hundreds of generations, thousand generations, that somehow those alleles that are less responsive to modern foods might become more common. But I don't think we want to wait around for that. I think we want to address the issue now in our environments.
Mike Carruthers
So what's another good example of human adaptability that I probably have never thought about?
Thomas Weber
Well, your immune system's a great example, right? So your immune system has parts of it that are built to be the infantry, that'll take care of any pathogen that comes your way, bacteria, microbes, that kind of thing, and the common cold, other viruses and bacteria that we see all the time. You've got what's called an innate immune system that is just your first line of defense against all that stuff. But then you have this very clever, adaptable immune system that is paying attention to what you are seeing today and what you're getting sick with today and building antibodies as a response to be smart, to be able to respond to it tomorrow. Right? Or maybe not tomorrow, but the next time you get sick with this pathogen. And so that's a clear case of sort of adaptability through a lifetime. If you are sick with something as a child, you're less likely to get it again or be as sick if you get it later. And I think this is not only an important example of adaptability. If we understand our bodies and understand our biology, that's an important way in to address a lot of the big questions we have in society today. I mean, there's not a more of a hot button topic out there than vaccination. And vaccination has actually been a kind of a hot button issue since it was first started hundreds of years ago. But today we see it as a really big polarized issue. And people talking about, well, it's not natural or whatever. Actually, it's incredibly natural. It's an evolved, you know, your learned immune system, the learned immune response, your adaptable immune response. Acquired immunity is what we call it is actually an evolved, natural part of how your immune system works. And vaccination just sort of takes advantage of that and introduces a pathogen so you can learn from that and adapt to that pathogen without getting really sick.
Mike Carruthers
So talk about how skin color, the shade of our skin, is an adaptation, a human adaptation to our environment.
Thomas Weber
Why is it that some folks have darker skin than others? Well, it turns out that there's a Cell type in your skin called a melanocyte that makes this stuff called melanin. Melanin is the pigment that makes you darker. And we all, all of us, all of our skin has cells that makes melanin. If you have darker skin, it's because you make more melanin. If you have lighter skin, it's because you make less. Well, why do people vary in how much melanin they make? Well, because it's an adaptation to sunlight. Basically, when you have really intense sunlight, like at the equator, all that ultraviolet radiation can be really damaging to your DNA and damaging to this molecule called folate that you need to make DNA. And your cells are constantly dividing. You're constantly making DNA. And so that's a real problem if you damage the DNA or damage the folate. So you don't want to get too much uv. However, you do want to get some because ultraviolet light is also important for making vitamin D. Right. So you're caught in this balance. You want to get enough uv, enough ultraviolet light to make vitamin D, but not too much that you damage your DNA. Here's where melanin comes in. Melanin is a natural sunblock. So that pigment that makes your skin a bit darker is acting like a natural sunblock and it absorbs ultraviolet light, will prevent you from having DNA damage, but it will also minimize how much vitamin D you can make. Okay, well, now we can see how skin color, then how light or dark your skin is, is responding to the amount of ultraviolet light in your environment. If you're from a population that's been there for generations and I tropical, you know, high ultraviolet light intensity environment, there's been selection there to, to, to favor the gene variants that, you know, make cells that make more melanin. So the darker skin variants are going to be favored. If you live in a north, you know, far, far north or far south away from the equator, where the sunlight's weaker, you're going to have less melanin favored because you're going to have, you want to be able to absorb whatever sunlight's there. So that's a great example of people's adaptability over time evolutionarily to their local environments. Now, can you or I. So I have light skin. I'm from a northern European population. Can I go to someplace that's got really intense ultraviolet light and be okay, sure, if I put on sunblock, but if I don't, then I'm at a higher risk of skin cancer and other problems like that? Yes, we're adaptable. And sort of culturally adaptable. But there's also this interesting biological adaptation that's underlying all of that that I think also helps us make sense of the diversity around the world.
Mike Carruthers
Well, but there are other differences too. When people have, say, darker skin, they also tend to have darker hair. When people have lighter skin, they may have lighter hair, they may have blue eyes where dark skinned people have darker eyes. Are all these things related or are these all separate adaptations?
Thomas Weber
So melanin is an important pigment for your eye color and your hair color too. And so people who tend to have darker skin also tend to have darker hair.
Mike Carruthers
So give me another human adaptation that maybe is invisible. Like you don't see it, but it's still important.
Thomas Weber
Yeah, here's a really fun one. Your spleen. So people probably don't think about their spleens too much. It's this sort of slipper shaped organization that's tucked under left side of your rib cage there below your diaphragm. And it's a spongy organ and it's full of. It sort of monitors blood cells that come through and it's part of your immune system to monitor that. But it's also this kind of reserve tank of red blood cells. Our red blood cells are the ones that carry oxygen around your body. So it turns out that people who live in, either in high altitude or this really, really interesting case of a population that lives at sea, they're, they're basically a hunting and gathering group who lives their whole life on the ocean in boats and dives, you know, over 100ft, sometimes into the water to get, to get food. If you are spending your life underwater, you know, diving for your food, or you're spending your life at the top of a mountain like in the Andes or in the Himalaya, you actually have the same problem, which is oxygen is, is, is scarce. Right. And so in those populations, we see larger spleens evolved and, and gene variants that actually favor a larger spleen size. That's a great example of, you know, a local adaptation and something that you would never notice. Of course, you can't tell by looking at somebody how big their spleen is. But evolution is working behind the scenes in some cases to favor these, these.
Mike Carruthers
Features like that there are people who live on boats.
Thomas Weber
Isn't that great? You know, when we think about human diversity, often we kind of still have a very American mindset. You know, we only kind of notice what we see around us and that's a really limited slice of what's out there. You know, when you go around the world, you live. Look at populations. You live in all kinds of environments, all kinds of lifestyles, all kinds of contexts. You see, the human body really pushed and pulled into different, you know, different adaptations. This is a population. They're called the sama. And yes, they live their lives. They're in the South Pacific, on islands in the South Pacific. And of course, they'll come to land sometimes, but they. They will spend weeks, months, you know, lots and lots of time at sea. That's where they spend most of their lives, on boats. And. And they fish, of course, for. For their food. And the men, especially, will free dive. They just jump. They don't have scuba or anything like that. This is a traditional society. They dive down there and they're spear fishing and that kind of thing for their food. So, yeah, I mean, that's a great example of how the diversity in cultures that we see around us can also push our bodies in interesting ways.
Mike Carruthers
Well, it's interesting to hear of these very peculiar adaptations, and yet it's still within a fairly small window. Humans are humans. They can only adapt so much.
Thomas Weber
That's right. So the human body, there are still limits on how warm the body can get, how cold you can get, you know, how many calories you need. But we are adaptable. And, you know, part of what we're adaptable about is we have this really rich cultural set of adaptations that we live with. Clothing, shelter, you know, ways to prepare our foods, way to go get food. That makes us sort of. We're the only big mammal that can live just about anywhere on the globe. I think we're probably the most widespread large mammal ever. And it's because we're so adaptable in our bodies, but also in our behaviors.
Mike Carruthers
Well, see, this is one of those topics that I would never even think to think about until you came along. But it makes you think about how just how adaptable humans have been and have had to be in order to survive and thrive. Herman Poncer has been my guest. He is a professor of evolutionary anthropology and global health at Duke University, and he is author of a book called how your unique body really works and why our biology unites us. And there's a link to his book at Amazon in the show notes. Herman, hey, thank you for coming on and talking about spleens and things. I appreciate it.
Thomas Weber
Yeah, thanks, man. I appreciate it, too.
Mike Carruthers
If you're keeping a secret right now, the sooner you tell someone that secret, the better. A study from Tufts University confirms that keeping a secret can affect everything else you do. It could be good news that you're waiting to announce or something not so good that you feel you need to hide. But holding onto it and not telling someone can actually hurt. The burden of suppressing a secret can act as an emotional and physical weight in your day to day life. People keeping secrets tend to move slower and require more energy to get things done. So tell someone your secret and that is something you should know. Wherever you listen to this podcast, whether it's Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Castbox, Pocket, Cast, they all have a share function and I would like you to put that share function to use and share this episode with someone you know who you think would enjoy listening to Helps us grow our audience and it's a great way to support the show. I'm micahruthers. Thanks for listening today to something you should know. You might think you know fairy tales and you might think that they are.
Narrator
Cute and sweet and boring, but the.
Mike Carruthers
Real Grimm fairy tales were not cute at all.
Narrator
They were very dark and they were often very grim.
Mike Carruthers
On Grim Grimmer Grimmest, we tell a grim fairy tale to a bunch of kids.
Narrator
Perfect for car rides or screen free entertainment. Grim Grimmer Grimmest activates kids imaginations and instigates fun conversations because fairy tales speak to all of us at a very deep, primal level and they raise interesting.
Mike Carruthers
Topics and questions that are worth chewing.
Narrator
Over together as a family. Every episode is rated Grim, Grimmer or Grimmest, so you, your kids, your whole family can choose.
Mike Carruthers
What is the right level of grim for you? Though, if you're listening with Grandma, she's just gonna go for Grimmest. Trust me on this one. Tune in to Grim, Grimmer Grimmest and our new season.
Narrator
Available now from the podcast that brought you to each of the last lesbian bars in the country and back in time through the sapphic history that shaped them, comes a brand new season of Cruising beyond the Bars. This is your host, Sarah Gabrielli, and I've spent the past year interviewing history making lesbians and queer folks about all kinds of queer spaces, from bookstores to farms to line dancing and much more.
Mike Carruthers
For 11 years, every night women slept illegally on the common. We would move down to the West Indies to form a lesbian Meg. Kristen coined the phrase women's music, but she would have liked to say it was lesbian music.
Thomas Weber
And that's kind of the origins of the Combahee River Collective.
Narrator
You can listen to Cruising on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes air every other Tuesday starting February 4th.
Something You Should Know
Episode: The New World of Weather Forecasting & Interesting Ways the Human Body Adapts
Host: Mike Carruthers
Release Date: June 30, 2025
Introduction
In this enlightening episode of "Something You Should Know," host Mike Carruthers delves into two fascinating subjects: the evolving landscape of weather forecasting and the remarkable ways the human body adapts to its environment. Additionally, Mike touches upon the psychological and physical impacts of minor actions like making typos in emails and keeping secrets. Through engaging interviews with experts Thomas Weber and Herman Pontzer, listeners gain valuable insights that can enhance their understanding of daily life and human biology.
Mike begins the episode by exploring a seemingly trivial yet impactful phenomenon: typos in emails. Drawing from research by Harvard Business School, he discusses how minor errors can significantly alter the perceived emotion behind written communication.
Key Insights:
Emotional Amplification: Typos can act as emotional amplifiers. For instance, an angry email laden with typos may make the sender appear even angrier, while a joyful email with similar errors can enhance the perception of happiness.
“Typos act as an emotional amplifier,” Mike Carruthers explains at [01:00].
Perceived Competence: Beyond emotional cues, typos can inadvertently signal a lack of intelligence or careful thought, potentially undermining the sender’s credibility.
“The bad news is that those same typos also convey to the reader that you are less intelligent and that your response is being driven by emotion and not by careful thought,” Mike elaborates at [01:00].
Contextual Considerations: Despite the drawbacks, in certain contexts, the enhanced sincerity conveyed by typos might outweigh the negatives, suggesting that mistakes can sometimes humanize the sender.
This segment underscores the importance of mindful communication, especially in professional settings where perception matters.
Transitioning from personal communication, Mike introduces Thomas Weber, the former executive editor of Time magazine and author of "Cloud, Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos, and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting." Together, they explore the advancements and challenges in modern weather forecasting.
Key Insights:
Technological Advancements: Weather forecasting has seen remarkable improvements, especially with the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT). These technologies provide a wealth of data, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of forecasts.
“We’re really entering a new age of even better forecasts,” Thomas Weber states at [08:15].
Historical Progression: From the advent of the telegraph in the 19th century to contemporary AI-driven models, forecasting has continually evolved, allowing for longer and more precise predictions.
“A five-day general forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast from 1980,” Thomas highlights at [06:50].
Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Forecasting: Modern forecasts often present probabilities (e.g., a 40% chance of rain), which can be counterintuitive for the general public accustomed to definitive answers.
“Humans are notoriously not great at handling probabilistic information,” Thomas explains at [20:34].
Weather Literacy: Emphasizing the importance of understanding weather forecasts beyond daily conveniences, Thomas advocates for increased weather literacy to better prepare for extreme weather events.
“It’s about being aware of the dangers and how to react to them and becoming weather literate,” he asserts at [12:02].
Challenges with Extreme Weather: The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as wildfires and heatwaves, highlight the critical role accurate forecasting plays in saving lives and mitigating damage.
“Last year the United States saw 27 distinct weather disasters where the costs from damage were more than $1 billion,” Thomas notes at [12:02].
Notable Quote: "Weather fatalities are often undercounted, especially for things like heat waves," Thomas Weber emphasizes at [12:02].
This discussion illuminates the intricate balance between technological innovation and effective communication in the realm of meteorology.
In the latter half of the episode, Mike engages with Herman Pontzer, a professor of evolutionary anthropology and global health at Duke University, and author of "How Your Unique Body Really Works and Why Our Biology Unites Us." Their conversation delves into the extraordinary adaptability of the human body in response to diverse environmental pressures.
Key Insights:
Evolutionary Adaptations: Human bodies have evolved various traits to adapt to different environments, such as skin color, height, and spleen size, each serving specific survival functions.
“Every part of our body is this interplay of evolutionary adaptation in the way things are shaped and the way things work,” Herman Pontzer explains at [31:54].
Case Study – Spleen Size: Populations living at high altitudes or those who engage in prolonged diving activities have evolved larger spleens to efficiently manage oxygen scarcity.
“People who live in either in high altitude or this population that lives at sea, we see larger spleen size,” Herman discusses at [46:30].
Skin Color and Melanin: The variation in skin pigmentation is a direct response to ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels in different geographic regions. Melanin acts as a natural sunblock, balancing vitamin D synthesis and DNA protection.
“Melanin is a natural sunblock,” Herman states at [43:05].
Height Adaptations: In hot environments, smaller and thinner bodies aid in thermoregulation, whereas in colder climates, stockier builds conserve heat. These physical traits are the result of genetic adaptations tailored to specific ecological niches.
“This is an adaptation in that local environment to be able to thermoregulate just to stay cool in really hot environments,” Herman illustrates at [32:41].
Modern Health Implications: Herman connects these evolutionary traits to contemporary health issues, such as obesity in Western societies. He suggests that genetically ingrained responses to hyper-palatable foods contribute to varying susceptibilities to weight gain.
“If you have tall parents, you’re going to have tall. You’re more likely to be tall," Herman explains the genetic basis of height at [32:41].
Notable Quote: "Race is actually not a biologically coherent category," Herman Pontzer asserts at [36:59], highlighting the complexity and interconnectivity of human genetic diversity.
Cultural Adaptability: Beyond biological changes, humans exhibit cultural adaptability through clothing, shelter, and technology, enabling them to inhabit diverse environments globally.
“We’re the only big mammal that can live just about anywhere on the globe,” Herman concludes at [49:26].
This segment provides a profound understanding of how humans biologically and culturally adapt, emphasizing the interplay between genetics and environment in shaping our diverse forms.
Towards the end of the episode, Mike touches upon the psychological and physical toll of keeping secrets, referencing a study from Tufts University.
Key Insights:
Emotional Weight: Suppressing secrets imposes an emotional and physical burden, leading to decreased energy levels and reduced efficiency in daily tasks.
“The burden of suppressing a secret can act as an emotional and physical weight in your day-to-day life,” Mike states at [50:44].
Performance Impact: Individuals harboring secrets may experience slower movements and require more effort to accomplish tasks, highlighting the pervasive impact of hidden information on overall well-being.
Encouragement to Share: Mike advises listeners to share their secrets with trusted individuals to alleviate the associated stress and improve their quality of life.
“Tell someone your secret and that is something you should know,” he urges at [50:44].
This brief but impactful discussion underscores the importance of emotional transparency for mental and physical health.
Conclusion
In this episode, Mike Carruthers expertly navigates through diverse topics, from the subtleties of digital communication to the complexities of weather forecasting and human biological adaptability. By engaging with experts Thomas Weber and Herman Pontzer, Mike provides listeners with a deeper appreciation of how these factors influence daily life and our understanding of human resilience. Additionally, the exploration of the effects of typos and secrets offers practical advice for personal well-being. "Something You Should Know" continues to fulfill its mission of delivering transformative knowledge that listeners can apply to enhance their lives immediately.
Notable Quotes:
“Typos act as an emotional amplifier,” — Mike Carruthers [01:00]
“We’re really entering a new age of even better forecasts,” — Thomas Weber [08:15]
“Every part of our body is this interplay of evolutionary adaptation in the way things are shaped and the way things work,” — Herman Pontzer [31:54]
“Race is actually not a biologically coherent category," — Herman Pontzer [36:59]
“The burden of suppressing a secret can act as an emotional and physical weight in your day-to-day life,” — Mike Carruthers [50:44]
Resources:
Thomas Weber's Book: Cloud, Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos, and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting
Herman Pontzer's Book: How Your Unique Body Really Works and Why Our Biology Unites Us
Connect with Us: Subscribe to "Something You Should Know" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Castbox, Pocket Casts, and more to stay informed and empowered with knowledge that matters.