← Split Zone Duo: College Football Podcast
Loading summary
Transcript160 lines
- [00:00]
A
We're coming and we ain't backing down. We don't need a bunch of cats in here looking in the mirror.
- [00:05]
B
Everybody just do your job.
- [00:07]
A
You understand that? Hey, will you shut up? I'm bitterly disappointed with the officiating today. Guys being dudes and they run through our, like through a tin horn, man.
- [00:16]
B
Thank you, Lee. Thank you to our split seven duo listeners and subscribers. I'm Alex Kirschner, joined here by my co host, Richard Johnson. Richard, it is time for the second annual split zone duo coach firing slash retirement slash departure confidence draft. I'm defending my belt, you know.
- [00:37]
A
Well, look, I would. I think we need to go to the VAR and assess what happened last year because we do have the results of last year's draft. It is, it is by selective accounting, by one person's accounting, it is 122 to 113. But the VAR has buzzed in. The fourth official has gone to the monitor and he is reviewing how to, how to assess the 23 point total that was attached, that Alex attached to Kyle Whittingham. And you know, we're, we're all, we're all consciously awaiting what he's going to come back with. You never know. It could be a penalty, it could be a goal kick. We never know.
- [01:29]
B
You are incorrigible. Let me run people through the rules of this draft and explain what we do here in the summer during season preview time. Every year, something like 20 to 30, even last year getting on the way close to 40 college football programs are going to change coaches, something like 20 and change of those are going to have a coach get fired or retire. The objective of the coach firing slash departure confidence draft is to pick out those coaches and get everyone into the swing of things with the coach carousel before it really heats up in earnest later in the year. And the way that we do that is a confidence draft format where we are going to go through this year, 27 manually selected coaches. This is a mixture of leftovers from last year's list who did not wind up getting fired or didn't retire. A mixture of guys who just kind of look like things have been getting a little dicey or who were pretty publicly on the hot seat last year. And we are going to assign a point value with the highest point value from each of Richard and me going to the coaches that we think are most likely to be fired or to resign or to retire from their jobs. This year. We are not counting coaches on the basis of them getting hired away to other jobs. There is a Lincoln Riley exception there because Lincoln Riley could do any number of things but that's the view and now Kyle Whittingham counts and counted last year as my most confident pick because we are waiting resign from Utah, was a free agent before Sharon Moore was fired by Michigan and he went there. It's not close my friend for FIFA to rule.
- [03:08]
A
The VAR is is taking all things into account and eventually they will rule.
- [03:14]
B
Have your fun. Anyway to to give you a level set on how we did last year. Last year we went over 23 coaches. Nine of them wound up hitting and being fired or retiring or resigning. I won with 122 points to Richard's 113.
- [03:31]
A
Again, I don't know much like the African cup of nations, this result is under protest. I'll walk my whole side off the field if I have to. It's which it is. It is really a toss up which will be actually adjudicated first, the 2026 African cup of Nations final between Morocco and Senegal or the 2025 Split Zone Duo coach conference draft.
- [03:58]
B
I brought in the criteria but this year because last year we intentionally didn't take anyone who was in their third year or sooner at the school. But you know, Hugh Freeze wound up getting fired by Auburn for example. We didn't want to discriminate in that way. The coaches that were on the draft last year of the 23 that were worth points were Whittingham, Justin Wilcox, Trent Dilfer, Brent Pry, Mike Gundy, Sam Pittman, Billy Napier, Brian Kelly and Mark Stoops. This year I actually think it's a lot harder. I felt lock, stock and barrel about the top three on my list last year. Whittingham, Justin Wilcox and Trent Dilfer. I felt in different ways they were all pretty obvious to me that they were coming to the end. This year I think we're going to make more fools of ourselves. I think that this is much harder to identify dead men walking this year because I don't really think there is a dead man walking even if a couple people are pretty close bordering to it. So Richard, we're going to go through it. You are going to hear 27 coach names during this episode and we are going to just present each coach in order of seniority at their job by how many years they've been there and we're going to each give our point value. Higher number up to 27 means we are picking them first, putting the most points at stake on them going away. Lower value means pretty confident that they are not. We begin With a coach heading into his 28th year at the University of Iowa, Kirk Ferenc. Where do you have him, Richard?
- [05:32]
A
I have Kirk Ference at A two. I just. I'll believe it when I see it, man. I'll believe it when I see it.
- [05:39]
B
Me too. Well, I have the same theory as you. I have Kirk Ference on my list at 10, which is more points than I gave him last year. But that's only because it's been another year. I don't think we're going to know when it happens here. This is just purely educated speculation, as is the case for a lot of. I think what we're going to be talking about today, with a handful of exceptions, we're not going to know. He looks like he's healthy. He's going to be 71 this year. I hope he is healthy. I don't think that they're going to be bad this year. I'm not sure that they've got another nine in them this season. They won nine games last year. But I think we're philosophically aligned on Kirk Ferencing. I just gave him a higher point total because it's been an additional year. A coach going into his 20th year at the Air Force Academy. Troy Calhoun, where do you have Troy?
- [06:30]
A
I have Troy Calhoun at 14 on mine. The other, you know, the same thing that you were kind of saying does reign in mine, which is like the hired away factor. It's an old bit that Godfrey will tell you about, but I have it at 14 now. I don't think he's going to get hired away. I think those days.
- [06:49]
B
No, I think those days are gone too. I have Troy Calhoun at 19. So we are close on this one. It's 20 years in the gig. I thought that they'd be better last year after they had gone 4 and 8 in 2024 or 5 and 8 in 2020 or 5, 5, 5 and 7 in 2024. They then went 4 and 8. They weren't materially better. Their record was game worse. I think, and we'll talk about this more when we get to the Mountain west previews, that there actually is probably going to be improvement this year. But if you just put some things together, you hit 20 years in a job and if they were then to have three really like crappy years in a row, it would just make sense at a certain point that he would be. That he would be done. So that's why I have him in a pointsier place this year. He is signed through 2029 which would be significant to buy out a million and a half over three years. But the service academies are, are different. I'm never going to doubt that they have the money even though they don't try to spend it in tacky buyout fashion. So several things going on with Troy Calhoun, a coach going into his 18th year at Clemson, Dabo Sweeney.
- [07:59]
A
I have dabo at a 17 because I do still, I do still think they could figure it out. They certainly could figure out with all the town involved.
- [08:09]
B
Yeah.
- [08:11]
A
But if, as I've said on the show, you know, lately, if you figure it out or if you do write about what you did last year, I don't really know how much more you need to see.
- [08:23]
B
I have Dabo Sweeney at 13, so I'm giving him a little bit more grace likelihood of sticking around than you are. But yeah, this is his first appearance on the board and at some point things end. What I can, what I would say about Dabo is that I think this year is the first time that if he were to be done at Clemson after this year, it wouldn't surprise anybody in our industry or in the college football community like this is. This is the first year where it's not just theoretical, where you really could see it based on the way things have been going. And you have Chad Morrison for one last job. Little hints of wanting to work with your friends. These are things that sometimes precede coaches being done. So he's in play. I think we would all agree. The other in the acc. Oh, go ahead.
- [09:15]
A
I would say the other thing with it is like he ain't retiring. Like I don't, I don't know what you're going to call it, mutual, whatever when the time comes, but I tend to think you're going to have to do it. Graham Neff at all.
- [09:33]
B
Have fun with that. Have fun with that if that's what it winds up. Coming to a coach who is going into his 14th year at NC State, Dave Doran,
- [09:48]
A
this is, this is your guy, man. I feel like every year, I don't know what I had him last year, but 15, I feel like it's always 15. It can always go one way or the other. But he's 15 this year.
- [10:01]
B
I put him a bit higher this year. I have Dave Doran at 21, which is kind of just below my top group. But I will admit, and we've talked about this already this week on the ACC preview, that this becomes very eye of the beholder for NC State. There's no way to make A convincing argument that this guy is not a very good football coach. It's just at some point, is there a need for the fresh coat of paint in order to get the money rolling a little bit so that your roster stops getting picked clean at the top end by the blue bloods every year, which is what's happening right now. There's just enough things that make sense to me, but they also have been loyal to him and he has been loyal to them. And I acknowledge how hard that one is. This is the kind of guy that I'm talking about when I said that this year's coach departure confidence draft is just harder than last year's. Even though I think Doran was on our list last year as well. Still in the ACC, a third coach in a row going into his 12th year at Pitt. Pat Narduzzi, a return participant on this list.
- [11:10]
A
How you feeling about your boy here, huh?
- [11:13]
B
I have him low once again. For the second year in a row, I have Patna Doozy. Out of five, at five on my list, only four coaches less likely in my view, to go. He signed through 2030. He has no other power conference options. So it's not like he's going to leave to be a head coach somewhere else. Perhaps, you know, somewhere along the line, maybe an NFL team would, would have him come and coach defense there if he wanted, but he wouldn't get the same amount of money. A lot of Pitt fans are exhausted by his tenure, but they won eight games last year. They were relevant in the ACC race deep into November. And I just don't think Pitt's the kind of school that's in a position to buy out 20, 27, 8, 9 and 30. I, I just don't think they're going to do it. So he, he remains a pretty low point value on my list. What about you?
- [12:03]
A
Similarly, to me, I got him at five. Similarly.
- [12:06]
B
Okay, we have an exact match. Okay, that's very interesting. Very interesting. And I look forward to more years of this experience. This is actually Alex's favorite teams stretch of this episode going into his eighth year as the head coach of the University of Maryland. Mike Loxley, who Richard, of course, has gotten to know through your work, through the award that Mike Loxley and his group designed to increase representation of black coaches, has given a lovely award to Richard in the off season. So, Richard, what have you learned?
- [12:42]
A
I am going to go. I'm going to go seven here because I retained the opinion that I don't think they're going to be that bad.
- [12:54]
B
I Don't think they're going to be that bad either. But as a proud alum of the university, I know better than to be too optimistic about this. I have Mike Loxley at 23, so that's our biggest gap yet by a wide margin. The reason why is that I decided to take a rule into this draft that was if your school very publicly made a show of how they weren't firing you so that they could save your buyout and put it towards the roster. I don't trust that it's for the long haul. It's just screams that you have to be as a safe value play. You have to be near the top of my board for that. I don't disagree with your read of the season.
- [13:40]
A
Here's the difference between. Here's the difference between Luke, the other coach that this happened to, Luke Fickle or one of the others. The difference between Luke Fickle and Mike Loxley is that Fickle went out and got a bunch of guys like Maryland. Didn't really take a bunch of guys in the portal.
- [14:00]
B
No. Maryland is attempting to player develop and retain this thing to success, which is a decent strategy and I'm not arguing with it either. Just need to see it. And I think we'll get to Florida State, we'll get to Wisconsin. But there was sort of a similar rationale for me in assigning those values the way they did. So, okay, you and I have a big gap then on Mike Loxley, but maybe not one that's born out of a huge disagreement. I just mentioned Florida State, Mike Norvell.
- [14:30]
A
Richard Mike Norvell. It's high. Not as high as you might think, but 22.
- [14:37]
B
Interesting. 27 for me. Why just 22? Because I think a lot of our listeners would probably put him where I'm putting him. I wonder why you put them a little bit lower.
- [14:48]
A
I just have a few more that I think are definitely going to be bad.
- [14:51]
B
So it's an expression of like some possible upside in the Florida State.
- [14:56]
A
He's 22. Like he's 22, you know.
- [14:59]
B
No, I don't want to get carried away with it. Yeah. We just covered Florida State on the ACC preview. I think there's some stuff worth being excited about on that roster, some players worth being excited about on that roster. But you know how close it got last year and they didn't want to pay the buyout and the quarterback situation is dreadful. And so I have him in my top slot this year. I don't feel as bullish about it as I Did with Whittingham in my top spot a season ago, but okay, we are close enough to align there. Our next coach is going into his seventh year at Old Dominion. Ricky Ronnie.
- [15:39]
A
Ricky Ronnie. I have at six.
- [15:42]
B
Okay. I have him at two. This guy won 10 games last year after I had him pretty high on my board last year. Off season extension. He has signed through 2029 at more than a million bucks a year. He is still under.500 in that job, but.
- [15:58]
A
Sure.
- [15:58]
B
But it's hard. Hard to see it this soon in a new deal.
- [16:03]
A
Yeah, Yeah, I don't think so.
- [16:06]
B
All right. That is a reprieve for Ricky Ronnie after being higher on these boards last year. Couple of coaches coming up who are going into their year six at their SEC jobs. Shane Beamer has joined the board this year. Where do you have him?
- [16:22]
A
I got Shane Beamer, 21.
- [16:25]
B
Okay. I have him at 20. We have alignment. Okay. Very interesting.
- [16:29]
A
Shane Beam are pretty high.
- [16:31]
B
Break it down.
- [16:32]
A
I just. It's going to be a really big changing of the tides here. Relatively new ad. This is going to be Lenora Sellers this last year. This is going to be Dylan Stewart's last year. I just. You take a look at it and you're just like, if, if they were really not able to get this done with that crop of generational talent relative. I don't know. I don't know. And it's another year of the offensive experiment. A course correction in the offensive coordinator experience. I don't know. I don't love it.
- [17:06]
B
He already pulled the fire the coordinator lever.
- [17:09]
A
God, they were bad last year too.
- [17:12]
B
It was bad. It was bad. And their fan base is very down. And then this was the thing that we couldn't miss when we were doing the off season anxiety survey of our listeners. The South Carolina fans had maybe the most gallows humor in the way they were talking about this program. And I think that because of Sellers and Stewart clearly being bound for the NFL after this season, it would be a natural reset opportunity. Can't fire another coordinator. Like you're not going to fire Kendall Briles at midseason and then survive another year.
- [17:42]
A
So I, I also think it's really hard to. If you take the holistic narrative of What a bad 2026 would be. It's hard to stack a bad 2026 with how the season ended, with last year with the Bama game ending, how it went. Lord knows, the Texas A and M game and then another loss to Clemson.
- [18:05]
B
Yes, I would agree with you that
- [18:07]
A
Clemson also, that Clemson too.
- [18:09]
B
Not a great Clemson. Yeah. Okay, let's go to Austin. Steve Sarkeesian is, is on the board as well for the first time. This is his sixth year in that job. He won 10 games last year, but 10 wasn't enough. And I'm wondering where you would net out on this going into 26.
- [18:30]
A
Well, I have him at 12, which may be a little high, but I just. If they don't miss, if they don't make the playoff, he's going to be fired. But, and that's my opinion. I'm not reporting that, that's my opinion, but I, I just do not think they're going to miss the playoff. Like, I don't even know if they're going to miss. Like, I think they're a kind of a lock to win a game or two.
- [18:59]
B
And the number that you gave him, just there, remind me, what did you just say? Was the number 5?
- [19:03]
A
12.
- [19:03]
B
Sorry, 12. Sorry, I missed her. 12 is 5.
- [19:06]
A
I'm more thinking that like, yeah, there's an outside shot. I mean, let's. Arch breaks his leg and then they missed the playoff.
- [19:13]
B
Maybe.
- [19:13]
A
But like, I don't know. I just. It is pretty boomer bust this year, I think, for Sark with what they've put into that roster. Similar to Lincoln, but in a different kind of way.
- [19:25]
B
I think it's a perfect comp. And the reason why I have Sark on my list at 11, very close to you is, is almost complete alignment. I don't think that they're going to miss the playoff this year. I think it's likelier that Sark is accompanying Arch to Times Square in early December as they get ready for the playoff and he's signing an extension. I think that's likelier than them missing the playoff and him getting fired, but when it looks so likely that if it did go that way that you would get fired. Yeah. So that's almost, that's an exact, almost exact agreement on numbers and also why we thought this would, would go down that way. Also, I think it might be. Yeah.
- [20:07]
A
By the way, fired and. Or NFL'd, as we know.
- [20:11]
B
Yes. Also, I'm realizing that I think I might be. I might have skipped from 13 to 11. I'm gonna have to figure that out later. But let's, let's proceed for now while I deal with that bureaucracy. I don't think are too, too hung up about that one point difference. I just don't know where number 12 is on my list, which is maddening. Does that mean we only have 26 coaches, whatever, figure it out. Unbelievable when this happens. Continuing. Sonny Cumby of Louisiana Tech is going into his fifth year in that job. This is now a Sunbelt job. I had him very, very high on my list last year. Thought that this was going to be it for him. I do not. This year he is down at number nine after a nice comeback season. They won eight games. They restructured his contract and extended it. He doesn't make a lot. He's at 750 something K a year. This is one of the poorest athletic departments in the Sunbelt, the league they've just moved to. It would be weird to be paying a coach buyout, even six figures for three years to fire a guy like this.
- [21:15]
A
Yeah, I mean, this. A couple of years ago, your man was on the brink. I have him at 10, so. Right where you have him at. And again, I mean, they can make a bowl game. They're not firing him? I don't think so, no.
- [21:29]
B
I mean, I think it's possible that even if they missed a bowl game, they wouldn't fire him this year, depending on how it went. So he seems for now to have done a pretty decent recovery of his job security. We've got a handful more guys in their fifth year now, and the fifth year is really fertile territory for guys to be getting fired. Joe Morehead at Akron.
- [21:54]
A
I have Joe Morehead, regrettably, at the Big Two. Seven.
- [22:01]
B
Fascinating. I have him at seven. This is our biggest gap yet. My thought mainly being he stuck it out through the APR troubles that they had last year. They got a little better. If he was going to leave, why hasn't he left yet? I'm not even sure how much I disagree with you and you having him at 27, but walk this out a bit because that is an extreme statement of confidence to put someone at 27.
- [22:26]
A
I mean, they just might be awful. Like, that's kind of where I'm going.
- [22:31]
B
I mean, I haven't 13 and 35, by the way, in that job and it's his fifth year. So, like, fundamentally speaking. Fundamentally speaking, it makes, makes a lot of sense.
- [22:42]
A
Like, I know that it's, you know, I know the stuff of the sun and all that sort of stuff and I, you know, I buy that. But what if they're 4 and 8 again? You know what I mean? Like, it's just. They're been really bad.
- [23:04]
B
Yeah. I'm gonna maybe have to recalibrate on this one, as I know. I'm fascinated that you feel this strongly.
- [23:11]
A
Yeah, I know The APR stuff, you know, I'm not, I'm not dismissing the APR stuff and the lack of practice time and all that sort of stuff, but it's sort of like if you're bad again, you're out of excuses.
- [23:27]
B
I would agree with that also. Oh, you know what I did Richard at row 12. I see what happened now. I deleted a coach from my list by accident. And we're about, we're about to come back to him. That was my mistake. But we will get to him in a moment. I'm glad that I've caught this before it became a disaster. Fair points on Joe Morehead. Let's go to Hawaii in the Mountain West. Timmy Chang goes into his fifth year.
- [23:55]
A
I got Timmy Chang at three.
- [23:58]
B
I have him at four. So we agree.
- [24:00]
A
I just, I think they might be all right.
- [24:03]
B
Also, he was extended in the last two weeks. He had been going into his. He had been going into his lame duck year. This year after a very impressive nine win season. This is another guy who is overall record at the place is like 400 something winning percentage. But it's been getting better. He took over a dump. He's a program legacy guy. You know, they would have hated to fire him or would hate to if they ever had to. And they've given him some fresh paper. So I have him down at number four on my list as well. That is a point of agreement between the two of us. Continuing. Charlottesville, Virginia, Tony Elliott, fifth year there. Another guy under 500. Fifth year, but not under 500. Last year won 11 games.
- [24:50]
A
I tend to believe last year I think I had Tony really high. I now have Tony really low. I have Tony at 1.
- [25:00]
B
All the way down at 1. I have him at 3. I have him at 3. So we're pretty much agreeing. Extension signed through 2030. Things trending in a good direction. Even if I don't think either of us thinks they're going to be as good this year as they were last year, that's still a much better station for Tony Elliott to be in. I do want to, by the way, take some time on this program to say thank you to our sponsors. I want to say thank you to Home Field Apparel, which has been with us since the very beginning of this podcast. This is our seventh year together. Home Field is maker of the absolute best in the business, in my view, in comfortable, officially licensed, vintage inspired collegiate apparel. Really thoughtful about how they make their college sports stuff. Put a ton of time into only making something that would make you as a fan of that school proud to wear it on your person as you're walking around. It's very much a brand and a company that understands how important the marks and the logos and the team names that they put on their stuff is to you. I want you to go to homefieldapparel.com and follow along with Homefield on all of their socials to keep up with what they are doing. They have big plans for this college football season as they do for every college football season. And I want to say thank you very much as well to Nokian Tires. I know there's going to be a lot of cookies who are being fired this year who might have to give back certain university provided cars. That might mean getting new cars, needing to get those cars outfitted with great sets of tires. If coaches are in those markets and I know you can afford the best, I know you can take a lot of care, a lot of pride in getting a tire that performs well, that's durable, that's made sustainably. That's where Nokian Tires comes in. Fired coaches. And even if you're not a fired college football coach collecting a large buyout. I want you to ask your tire dealer about Nokian Tires the next time you are in the market for a new set of wheels. I have a great feeling that you'll be very happy that you did if you give Nokian that kind of opportunity. Thanks very much to Nokian Tires in year five with us. It is an honor to have them along with us still on this journey and you can go along with Nokian on your journeys as well. Richard, this is maybe the big one here. Lincoln Riley goes into his fifth year at USC. He is winning about 2/3 of his game there games there. He's 36 and 17 to date. Where are we?
- [27:17]
A
It's another one where I find it to be playoff or bust. Yes, however comma and I guess they, I just, I don't know that they're going to miss the playoff. You know what I mean? I just, I don't know.
- [27:35]
B
Say that number again where you pick how many points you just put on it.
- [27:38]
A
I have 18.
- [27:39]
B
Okay. I have 25. We conceptually agree if I win on Lincoln Riley and the margin of the coach confidence draft is seven points or fewer we can var it and put it up to a committee review because I'm sort of cheating here in that this is not a, this is not a contest over coaches that are going to take other jobs. But with Lincoln, I think the range of outcomes that include him not being USC's coach next year includes that possibility. I think it includes the NFL. I think it includes tv. I have sometimes wondered and heard other people wonder about Texas Tech perhaps at some point in his life, a place where he has history and where they have money. I think there's just enough possibilities between him getting fired and him even taking some time away from coaching that I have him at 25. I also think it is 5050 ish to me that they make the playoff. And if they make the playoff, he's definitely not getting fired. He makes the playoff. Maybe he's staying there for a while. Maybe he's getting an extension. Believe it or not, there's a wide range of outcomes. So 25 is a pretty aggressive play on my part. And if I win because he takes a different job, we can review it to make sure that I handle myself appropriately.
- [29:01]
A
Sure appreciate that.
- [29:04]
B
Also a five year coach here, a couple more of these Sonny Dykes at tcu.
- [29:11]
A
I, I don't like how high I have him. No, nevermind. Sorry. That was, that was my first, my first draft. 8. I have Sonny Dykes. He was a little bit higher, I think the first, first run through.
- [29:24]
B
Yeah. I actually also moved him down on my list on a review. I have him at 6. We have heard and we have observed. It's been easy to see areas where the Texas Christian. I don't know why I was about to say Texas. Something else. Where the Texas Christian University fan base has been down on him because the best days were early when he gets there in 20, 21 and takes him to the playoff. National championship game, such as it was. They did play in that game. Technically.
- [29:51]
A
Technically.
- [29:53]
B
But they won nine last year.
- [29:55]
A
There are some three years in a row or two years in a row, haven't they?
- [29:59]
B
There are some. There are enough wobbly portally things like that. You know, they didn't hang on to Josh Hoover. I think they would have ultimately liked to. Even though there was some frustration between him and them. That was obvious while they were underachieving at certain moments the last couple years. But yeah, they've won after the fact too. They won nine after the fact as well. They have won nine two years in a row. Those were both including bowls. So for our purposes, let's call it 8 because we want to inject drama into this thing.
- [30:24]
A
Absolutely.
- [30:26]
B
But I don't have him very high on my list either. High enough that it wouldn't be a total stunner at six for me. But I would be surprised.
- [30:36]
A
Richard.
- [30:36]
B
We are going to a former Big 12 school Oklahoma. Brett Venables, fifth year for him. Ten and three last year made the playoffs.
- [30:44]
A
I, I think Brent Venables should be higher than he is here. But I have Brent venables at an 11 and I, I really think he
- [30:52]
B
should be high 12 for me and also agree yeah, yeah, yeah. It's interesting if any to me. Anybody who was really squarely obviously on a hot seat a year ago and didn't get fired but also did not get even a nominal extension. I'm clocking that. Like you could be right back there, you know, UAD too empowered, front office setup that seems sort of independent of him. I'm noticing that. I'm also not a major John Mateer believer. I do think they've, they've put a good bit of talent on that roster around him. But yeah, I think middling on these lists is the right spot for him based on our understanding of Oklahoma and his tenure so far. Nice to see some agreement there. Proceeding to Boulder, Colorado. Deion Sanders goes into his fourth year off a three and nine season.
- [32:00]
A
13 Man, I don't know.
- [32:03]
B
Okay. I don't know either. I have him at 24 but he's not going to tell us when he's leaving. And because of who he is and the way that he likes to own his own distribution, it's a black hole out there in terms of the college football water cooler. I don't believe anyone knows. I don't know that Pete Fammel and Bruce Feldman, the finest college football insiders in all the land in terms of breaking this kind of news. Brett McMurphy, I don't know that they know. If they did, they wouldn't whisper it to me. But I don't believe that people know right now when he is going to be done. I put him pretty high on my list because I'm shocked he's still there and I and he's had very public health problems and I think they've gotten enough high floor guys in there this year from, from the Portal that I don't think they can go three and nine again. But there's also not competitive in the Big 12 upside on this team either.
- [32:58]
A
Oh yeah. I mean there's, there's right around what they were last year upside or I should take downside. Like it's the floor on this team in my opinion is right. Like Julian Lewis never gets really out of neutral and he's not able to get it done. And there's a. Maybe the amount of go go offense you thought was coming doesn't actually come. The defense is still not great. You know, Brennan Marion said no.
- [33:24]
B
Jordan Seaton blocking for Julian Lewis.
- [33:26]
A
Well, I was about to say Brennan Marion said that they have better offensive linemen at Colorado this year that he had at Texas three years ago. Whenever that was, he was at Texas. I don't know, man. I don't know.
- [33:37]
B
Okay. We can at least agree that the Dion thing is something of a dart throw, so we'll keep that in mind. Madison, Wisconsin. Luke Fickle goes into his fourth year. Sub.500 in that job. Went 4 and 8 last year.
- [33:49]
A
19. I just don't know if they're going to be that good.
- [33:55]
B
I mean, despite all of it, who. Who does know that they're going to be that good? Are people saying that they're going to be that good?
- [34:00]
A
I don't know. But a portal infusion can flip it.
- [34:03]
B
Yeah, man. I might be a little too high with him, but I have him at 26. I mean, it was just so close to a firing last year. Everyone thought they did the thing that on principle makes me put him in my top group, which is the very clear no buyout money to the roster thing. And it might work, but it just feels like so. So obviously precarious to me that I had to put him high. So I've got him at 26. I'm not going to be that surprised if they're better and he survives. This is part of why I think this is a harder year to do this exercise than last year, but. All right, a little gap there. Jamie Chadwell at Liberty going into his fourth year. They sucked last year. They were 4 and 8.
- [34:47]
A
24. I think the. I think the patience is rapidly. It should be with this.
- [34:52]
B
Yeah, Okay. I have them at 14, kind of right smack in the middle, but I'm not shocked to hear that you would
- [34:57]
A
have them higher if they do what they did last year. I don't know how long they're going to do this.
- [35:01]
B
Yeah, this might shock you, but I'm not particularly sourced at Liberty. I'm not the first guy that they call. I'm not really sure why I haven't been able to pinpoint that. It's obviously one of my goals is to sort of get in tighter with Liberty, but the results have not matched the money. They're a private school, so we don't know, but we know that they have more money than the teams that they're playing against almost uniformly, if not completely uniformly. And so to go four and eight doesn't hunt. And we'll have to see if they can better that in 26. Matt Rule fourth year at Nebraska won exactly half his games to date.
- [35:42]
A
Yeah, I heard Matt Rule way lower than I thought I'd have him. I haven't Met rule at 4. Some of that has to do with the extension obviously. But yeah, I've Met rule at 4.
- [35:55]
B
Okay, that is interesting. I have Matt 1 because of that extension that might be too low because they could take a step back. They could. And how bad would that look if they took a step back but generally agreed it would just be odd after a not fake extension. You know, the, the Penn State contribution to the Rule family estate with that coaching search, especially with Penn State being on the schedule for Nebraska and Nebraska being motivated to get that done before Matt Rule went back to State College to avoid the incredibly awkward situation of an unextended Matt Rule going back there. He has a real extension and it would just seem odd, verging on unprecedented for him to get fired after that. But, but, but I think the defense
- [36:49]
A
is going to be pretty good this year over there. I don't know what they're playing out on offense though. I will say again for like the third year in a row.
- [36:58]
B
Yep, it's a bit curious. I think there are gaps to fill in once we see them play to really know what they're trying to do. I have a feeling you're going to have this one very high on your list. We're going to some. This is. We are now in the third year or fewer division of this exercise. Bill O', Brien, Boston College 26 okay, 22 for me.
- [37:21]
A
I mean they, they might not win a game, an FBS game, which I don't think they did last or they beat Circus. Sorry. Yeah, I don't know that they're going to win an FBS game.
- [37:31]
B
They're definitely on watch in the candidates of teams that could be the worst in the Power 4 this season. Now with him, it's also always possible that he could fetch some kind of NFL assistant offer. Maybe not a coordinator at this point, but something. Yeah, yeah. And I think I would still count him towards this draft anyway because it would be an obvious escape hatch. Kind of similar to what Jeff Halfley did a couple years ago. Although obviously it's worked out great for Hafley and Halfley clearly had more juice because he is now an NFL head coach.
- [38:03]
A
God, I forget about that. I forgot about that.
- [38:05]
B
Yeah.
- [38:06]
A
NFL coach, NFL is doing a lot. That's a load bearing term for what the Dolphins are about to be this year right now. I don't.
- [38:13]
B
Who's our quarterback?
- [38:15]
A
Malik Willis. Speaking of Liberty.
- [38:17]
B
Oh, actually, that's less depressing than to. Okay.
- [38:20]
A
Oh, that team is going to be so bad. You want to talk about ofer against the FBS? The Dolphins are in 0 and 17. Watch.
- [38:29]
B
Wouldn't that be a beautiful symmetry if the Dolphins could have both of those? If they could have 16 or 16.
- [38:35]
A
Yeah.
- [38:36]
B
I mean, the true.
- [38:37]
A
The full bottle. Yeah.
- [38:40]
B
Yeah. No question. All right. Tuscaloosa. Kalyn Deboer. He went 11 and 4 last year and as everyone knows, that was reflective of them having a universally agreed very good season in which everyone felt very good about him coming out of it.
- [38:55]
A
I. I have Kaylin deboer low and I have Kailyn deboer. I think I have Kaylin deboer too, because of general Alabama volatility and it's like immediate buyer's remorse, like, way too low. I have Kaylee at nine.
- [39:15]
B
Okay. I have at eight.
- [39:18]
A
It's too. I think it's too low.
- [39:21]
B
It might be. They gave him an off season extension. It's the same similar dynamic to Matt Rule. They gave him an offseason extension. Presumably that extension was being talked about and fist bumped on around the time that Michigan was open. Presumably. Though it wasn't announced until a while after that. But you know how this goes, man. If they were to be bad. If they were to be bad, I don't think they will be. I think the quarterback's going to be pretty decent.
- [39:54]
A
You feel stronger about that than I do.
- [39:55]
B
I said I think and I hedged with pretty decent. Left myself a lot of wiggle room there. Yeah. All right. At any rate, I have him at 8, you have him at 9. That's leaving the door cracked open. That's. So you're saying there's a chance territory for bama and Kalen DeBoer also in a third year, different station of the sport. Scotty Walden at UTEP coming off a 2 and 10. He's 5 and 19 in that job.
- [40:22]
A
20, 23, if you can do the math. 2 and 10 last year means 3 and 9 the year before. So I just don't. It's just not very.
- [40:32]
B
No, not great. I have him at 15, but that's basically because I just decided to put a crop of coaches who are very similar in a pod next to each other in this exercise. And I'm just going to go to the next two guys together and we can actually take these guys all in a lump. Derek Mason at middle Tennessee, who went 3 and 9 last year. Del McGee at Georgia State who went 111 last year.
- [40:56]
A
I have Derek Mason 20, Daryl McGee 25.
- [41:01]
B
Okay. I have Derek Mason 17, Del McGee 16. Scotty Walden 15. I just made a cluster of them because clearly these are situations that are not going well and they're in that year where you start to lose mercy if you see no sign of progress. But so you have these guys just a little bit likelier than I do to, to be canned. It sounds like.
- [41:18]
A
Yeah, I, I, I very well. I think I had a first draft for Dom when he was 27.
- [41:25]
B
Wow. Yeah, they're all I expected. They are awful. I expected when they hired him.
- [41:31]
A
Me too.
- [41:32]
B
I don't want to say expected that it would go better, but like you can go back and check the tape. Thought it was a good hire. Thought it was an interesting approach to take to really get serious about Metro Atlanta prep recruiting and try to be more local. And yeah, he's five and 20 in three years. No, sorry. I'm counting, I'm counting one previous game as Georgia Southern's interim coach. On his record that he is 4 and 20 in two years as the head coach for Georgia State. Richard, we saved the best for last. In his second year at the University of North Carolina, the first ever second year coach to work his way into the coach firing retiring confidence draft off a 4, 8 debut is one Bill Belichick. What number do you have for him?
- [42:20]
A
I'm gonna go 14. He's too stubborn to retire. I think they are too stubborn to fire him.
- [42:29]
B
Yeah, there's some people at the North Carolina athletics department who listen to the show.
- [42:35]
A
I didn't say anything about the North Carolina athletic department.
- [42:37]
B
Yeah, I know I have to get and I understand that you people, even though you have somewhat important jobs at North Carolina may not have all of the cars to get to decide what happens here. But if you want to tip us on what's happening with Bill, please feel free to do so. He only has two more guaranteed years on this deal, right? It was a five years.
- [42:57]
A
Remember the contract? Yes, the contract.
- [43:01]
B
It's not entirely clear. I went and found this through the extra points library. The employment contract that he has with Belichick. There's this one is pretty complex for one of these documents in terms of whose obligations to whom. If you try to end the relationship at a sliding scale of different times. But there's a situation where if they fired him without cause before the end of the guaranteed years. So like before those kind of nub years at the end, they would owe not too much beyond that. Like, there'd be a little like optiony buyout thing. But that's what they mean by guaranteed years. Like North Carolina has an escape hatch here. If they decided to end this thing in the next two years where the money wouldn't be that bad. He's 74 getting up there.
- [43:52]
A
I just, I think he's too stubborn to retire.
- [43:54]
B
I mean, he's definitely stubborn. Also with Belichick, you have to consider the possibility that he will have sort of the college version of some kind of Urban Meyer Jaguars meltdown while he's in this gig. Like the amount of records requests that are flying into this program.
- [44:10]
A
I don't know about literally the urban.
- [44:12]
B
No, not literally, but I mean just a fish out of water situation where the guy just never gets it together and eventually is pushed out because it's clear he can't lead the organization. That's kind of what I'm getting at with this. He showed signs of it last year before they even played a game.
- [44:27]
A
He did.
- [44:28]
B
And I, I am glad not to know what it is like in that house. I don't care to talk about it, but there's just gonna be a lot of eyeballs on this program that do not have his best interests in mind. And I could imagine problems. So I have met 18 on the likelier scale here. But man, what a bizarre situation. What a bizarre situation. I'm sure when it's over, he'll leak it to some reporters about who wronged him because he just wasn't given a fair shake or something like that to succeed North Carolina. And I look forward to reading about that in the book that comes out after the fact. All right, Richard, that is our coach firing, retiring, confidence draft for this year. Not too many big gaps. Joe Moorhead is a huge gap between us. We have some disagreement on Luke Fickle, Mike Norvell, some gaps there, but we are fairly aligned. What's your overall impression before we hit the road on how busy you expect this coaching cycle to be? Coach because to level set it, you know it's going to be 20 something. You know it will. But you know that a lot of these coaches that we just named are not going anywhere just like they weren't last year where it was about nine out of 23. And this year we've got 27 on the list.
- [45:45]
A
This is one of those where it's like you can see a reality where Florida State figures it out. Oklahoma and Texas don't do anything and Clemson's good enough to keep him and it's not wild. But then you pull one thing out of the Jenga Tower on any one of those schools and we got action.
- [46:04]
B
You could dream up a world. I think it's a lower probability outcome where Florida State, usc, Wisconsin, Texas, Alabama are all open and Clemson is open. Like that's very unlikely that six or six, six out of six or seven out of seven are going to hit. But there are enough of these that we could have kind of a hot cycle. There are enough. But I think it's also possible that this thing is fairly dull in the style of the year before last 2024 where there was very little action.
- [46:37]
A
Yeah, man, that was.
- [46:38]
B
Yes, that was very boring. I do look forward to talking about it with you. This has been a free episode of Split Zone Duo a lot of the time. We put our coach carousel stuff, including Richard's mountains of original reporting on such behind our paywall@splitzoneduo.com I think the preseason is an excellent time to sign up for a full year subscription. You can do that@splitzoneduo.com subscribe or if you just want to play around, give us Give us a shot. During the season. It costs $10 a month and you will get about twice as many splits on duo podcasts as you would otherwise. During the season we tend to settle into a rotation of about 2 free and 2 subscriber only episodes a week. We would be honored if you would come along for the ride with us. Richard, my friend, it's almost time for families to start getting ripped apart, coaches lives to be uprooted. I'm looking forward to going through it with you my friend.