Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Squawk on the Street
Date: January 8, 2026
Episode: SOTS 2nd Hour: New Jobs Data, Trump Agenda Latest, & UBS's Healthcare Playbook
Hosts: Sarah Eisen, Carl Quintanilla, David Faber
Notable Guests: Rick Santelli, Eamon Javers, Rebecca Patterson, Michael Yee (UBS), Diana Olick, Ian Bremmer, Becky Quick

Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk on the Street dives deep into the latest economic data, explores significant political policy shifts from the Trump administration, analyzes the state of the U.S. housing market, and breaks down the biotech sector’s momentum. The team also discusses the U.S. role in Venezuelan oil and introduces CNBC’s new health initiative on rare diseases.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Latest Economic Data: Productivity Boom and Jobs

• Rick Santelli reports a "busy morning on the data front" (01:39), highlighting robust economic signals:

  • Wholesale Inventories: Up 2/10, as expected.
  • Sales: Down 0.4%, the second-largest drop since January.
  • Other positives: Labor costs dropped, productivity surged, trade balance improved, jobless claims steady.
  • Notable Quote:
    “Seriously, solid positive economic news, less announced layoffs on Challenger unit, labor costs dropped, productivity solid...it’s good reason why equities may have reversed.” – Rick Santelli (02:34)

• Sarah Eisen emphasizes a "productivity boom":

  • Q3 productivity up 4.9%, the highest since 2023.
  • Low jobless claims, with "just fewer firings in this economy... we're hovering around that 200,000 level" (03:57), despite higher unemployment rates.
  • Challenger data shows job cuts at their lowest since July 2024.
  • Key Dynamic: “Low firing, low hiring, high growth, high productivity economy.” – Sarah Eisen (05:32)
  • Fed's potential response: Debate over course of rate cuts to encourage hiring; anticipation for further jobs numbers.

2. Trump Administration: Populist Policies in Defense, Housing, Autos

• Eamon Javers details several market-moving policies (06:43):

  • Defense Sector: President criticizes Raytheon for slow delivery/cost and threatens to bar firms from business unless they invest more upfront. Caps defense executives’ pay and bans stock buybacks.
  • Housing: Trump signals imminent action to ban large institutional investors from buying single family homes:
    “People live in homes, not corporations.”
  • Auto Industry: Treasury Secretary proposes a tax deduction for auto loan interest ($10,000/year, for eligible buyers, 2025–2028 on U.S.-assembled cars).
  • Political Context: These are “populist approaches,” targeting affordability, viewed as key for the 2026 midterms.
  • Quote:
    "All of this...designed to deal with affordability, which clearly the president and the administration think are going to be the key issue in the 2026 midterm elections." – Eamon Javers (08:42)

• Bipartisan Reaction:

  • Eisen and Javers note convergence of left and right populists on housing policy:
    “Fascinating horseshoe moment...proposals put out by the populist left as well.” (09:35)
  • Origin of housing ban traced to both progressive and MAGA circles.

3. Markets Reaction and Macro View

• Rebecca Patterson (ex-Bridgewater):
  • Government intervention creating volatility.
  • Bipartisan agreement brewing on housing, but real fixes (supply, lower rates) will take years to impact affordability.
  • Venezuela policy: U.S. aid to rebuild Venezuela’s power grid; "We need to rebuild it here too." (11:05)
  • For energy, lower oil prices are good for consumers but may disincentivize producers.
  • On portfolios: favors a barbell approach (defense stocks, banks, gold, geographic diversification), with a cautious outlook given everything’s "priced in."
  • Quote:
    “Fixing affordability...is a multipronged policy and timing thing that is not going to be done by the midterm.” – Rebecca Patterson (13:26)

4. State of U.S. Housing Market

• Diana Olick’s Report (18:34):
  • CNBC survey: More agents see a balanced buyer-seller market; 65% expect improvement next quarter.
  • Price cutting widespread: "92% of agents had at least one seller cut the price" (18:52).
  • Buyers’ perceptions still at odds with sellers’:
    “Buyers tend to think the market is like 2008 and sellers tend to think the market is closer to 2021, 2022, and those are diametrically opposed mindsets.” – Michael Yee (19:27)
  • Presidential housing policy: Institutional investors only 3% of rental market; impact likely limited, concentrated in swing states.
  • Bipartisan interest in limiting institutional buyers, but more housing supply is still needed.

5. Biotech & Healthcare Outlook

• Interview: Michael Yee, UBS Global Head of Biotech Research (26:40)
  • Biotech sector at all-time highs; M&A heating up.
  • Pharma (Lilly, Abbvie) set for deals—focus on obesity, cardiometabolic, oncology.
  • Notable Trend: Approvals, pricing regulation overhang fading; drug access improving.
  • Top Pick: Lilly— "Got a 1250 price target, 20% more upside here first. The obesity pill or for Glipron is coming very soon." (29:03)
  • Market size: "Millions of people can get on that [the obesity drugs]."
  • Regulatory climate: 2025 was tough, but now, after Administration struck deals with pharma (price cuts, expanded access), headwinds have eased.
  • Quote:
    "The administration struck many deals, including with Lilly. They cut the price of GLP1. They got access to Medicare...now millions of people can get it." – Michael Yee (30:51)

6. U.S. Policy in Venezuela, Geopolitics & Global Risks

• Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President (33:07):
  • Venezuela: Trump succeeded in ousting Maduro but has "no real plan" for what’s next.
  • Policy uncertainty: “Trump doesn’t really care who governs it, but Marco Rubio does."
  • Oil companies want long-term U.S. guarantees; current approach is more showmanship than clear execution:
    "He said 50 million barrels of oil being guaranteed by the Venezuelans. The conversation in reality was like 15 to 25." (34:27)
  • Greenland: Trump is asking for a plan to take the territory without invading it—motivations unclear, risk for NATO unity.
  • On Colombia/Cuba: U.S. sanctions and policy are generating unusual diplomatic moves and could lead to migration crises if oil flows are cut.
  • Quote:
    "You need that total addressable market before you are going to get money or drugs or attention...on these [rare diseases]." – Becky Quick (45:14, emphasis on rare disease policy, but relevant to systemic geopolitical issues as well)

7. CNBC Cures: New Health Initiative on Rare Diseases

• Becky Quick introduces CNBC Cures (40:42), raising awareness on rare diseases:
  • 1 in 10 Americans affected; half are children.
  • Tells her family’s story with her daughter, Kaylee, diagnosed with the rare SYNGAP1 condition.
  • Goals: Accelerate innovation, regulatory advances; build community for affected families.
  • CNBC’s platform can help influence investors, executives, and policymakers.
  • Quote:
    "We know so much more about rare disease at this point. We realize that, first of all, it’s not rare… collectively, 1 in 10 Americans lives with a rare disease." – Becky Quick (41:45)
  • Announcement of new resources: weekly newsletter, podcast (“The Path with Becky Quick”), and a March 3rd CNBC Cures Summit.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Economic summary:
  “Solid positive economic news...productivity solid, trade balance nearly cut in half and jobless claims well behaved.” – Rick Santelli (02:34)
• On the new normal for labor:
  "Low firing, low hiring, high growth, high productivity economy." – Sarah Eisen (05:32)
• Trump policy populism:
  “All of this... designed to deal with affordability, which... the president and the administration think are going to be the key issue in the 2026 midterm elections.” – Eamon Javers (08:42)
• Housing split views:
  “Buyers tend to think that the market is like 2008 and sellers tend to think that the market is closer to 2021, 2022...” – Michael Yee (19:27)
• Affordability challenge:
  “Fixing affordability... is a multipronged policy and timing thing that is not going to be done by the midterm.” – Rebecca Patterson (13:26)
• Biotech optimism:
  “We think it’s green light on M and A. I think you’re going to see a lot more. The biggest patent cliffs are happening in 2028 and 2029.” – Michael Yee (28:13)
• Geopolitics/Trump on Venezuela:
  “Trump doesn’t really care who governs it, but Marco Rubio does...the nature of that transition is going to be important.” – Ian Bremmer (33:14)
• On rare diseases:
  “We know so much more about rare disease at this point. We realize that, first of all, it’s not rare...” – Becky Quick (41:45)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Topic/Segment | Start Time | |------------------------------------------------|------------| | Economic Data Breakdown: Productivity, Jobs | 01:06 | | Trump Policy Agenda Update (Defense/Housing/Auto) | 06:28 | | Market Reaction & Macro with Rebecca Patterson | 10:30 | | Housing Market Status with Diana Olick | 18:21 | | Biotech Sector Analysis with Michael Yee (UBS) | 26:16 | | Venezuela/Geopolitical Risks (Ian Bremmer) | 33:07 | | CNBC Cures: Rare Diseases Initiative | 40:27 |

Summary Takeaway

This episode offers a comprehensive update on the health of the U.S. economy, the evolving populist policy push from the Trump administration (with substantial cross-aisle echoes), the stubborn complexities of the housing market, and a bullish case for biotech as obstacles clear. The geopolitical lens focuses on U.S. engagement in Venezuela and broader risks. Becky Quick’s personal introduction of CNBC Cures highlights the real-world impacts of rare diseases and the potential for business-driven solutions. Overall, a vital guide to both the current market reality and the policy, economic, and scientific currents that will shape 2026.