
Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, & David Faber kicked off the hour with new jobs data - and the latest out of a busy 24 hours from the White House... including the President's latest comments moving defense, housing, and even auto stocks. One longtime market veteran gave her top picks for the volatility - while CNBC's Diana Olick talked fallout for the homebuilders. Plus: Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer joined the team with his take on the U.S.'s next targets (and top risks) abroad. Also in focus: UBS's healthcare playbook - as the group rallies to start the year to new highs... and details on CNBC's newest initiative: CNBC Cures.
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Eamon Javers
Before we had AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestreamed the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
Carl Quintanilla
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
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Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu.
Sarah Eisen
Good Thursday morning. Welcome to SQUAWK on the Street. I'm Sarah Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live at post nine. As always, from the New York Stock Exchange today, news out of Washington. Moving lots of stocks this morning from defense to housing. We'll bring you all the latest developments. Plus Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer will join us on the latest out of Venezuela. He says removing Maduro was the easy part. What comes next could be the real challenge. He'll tell us how he thinks things could play out from here. And biotech hitting a record high. We've got a top analyst to lay out where he sees opportunity in the space moving forward.
Rick Santelli
Busy morning on the data front. A little bit more coming now. Let's get to Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick. Yes, good morning, Carl. Our October final read on wholesale inventories for October, of course is up 2:10 exactly as expected. And we do see that the inventories of late have been on the build. The biggest number, of course, was January. Probably many trying to get in front of tariff issues. But we do see solid build. Now the key is are they on the sale block? Are they being sold? So sales for the month of October expected down a bit. Came in down a bit more than expected at minus 4, 10 of a percent. No, nearly 10 down half a percent. And that would be the weakest level. Equals exactly where we were in May. Find a bigger negative. You're going to January, which was the biggest, the biggest drop in sales at 9 10. This would be the second biggest. But if you look at all the other data points today, seriously, solid positive Economic news, less announced layoffs on Challenger unit, labor costs dropped, productivity solid trade balance nearly cut in half and jobless claims well behaved. It's good reason why equities may have reversed and interest rates once again that 10 year testing the top of the range right below 4.2%. Sara, back to you.
Sarah Eisen
Okay, Rick, thank you. Just want to run you through some of those data points that Rick just highlighted because it was a really good day in terms of data for the overall economy. Remember I mentioned yesterday that we're starting to see a productivity boom in this country. Well, we got the numbers and I just wanted to show you because they were stronger than even high expectations on productivity, up 4.9% in the third quarter. That's the highest level we've seen since 2023. And it's very strong. Remember, productivity growth is important. It's important for growth. It's important for companies and businesses as they try to offset inflationary pressures and any tariff issues. And I mean, ultimately, David, if we see a longer, a more protracted productivity booms, it solves a lot of problems.
Carl Quintanilla
We talked about this yesterday.
Sarah Eisen
We did, but I wanted to bring you the numbers because as I.
Michael Yee
We didn't have the numbers or they were really good.
Ian Bremmer
Okay.
Sarah Eisen
So I'm doing a big.
Carl Quintanilla
I just remember we had the conversation yesterday.
Sarah Eisen
Exactly. I just want to show you that the numbers came in even stronger.
Carl Quintanilla
Got it.
Sarah Eisen
Than my high expectations. Another good piece of data was the jobless claims. Yes, these are kind of, they vary their season. They can be seasonal holiday affected, but they continue to point to just fewer firings in this economy. Only 8,000 more Americans filed for jobless claims last week. You know, we're, we're sort of hovering around that 200,000 level. You would think with a rising unemployment rate and less demand out there for labor that maybe companies would be cutting back. We're just not seeing that. We're not seeing it.
Capella University Announcer
It's good news.
Sarah Eisen
And even the Challenger data, which is always bad news, even though the Challenger data, Carl, showed less bad news. Job cuts were the lowest since July 2024. Hiring intentions in that report were the highest for any December since 2022. We'll see what jobs report from the government shows on Friday.
Rick Santelli
December was good, but if you look at the quarter Q4 layoffs were the highest since 2008.
Sarah Eisen
No, no question. But the worry was that it was getting worse. And so we have to look at the monthly and weekly data and the quarterly data. Well, the quarterly data shows that things have cooled down, but the question is, was it shut down related and are things improving and this is evidence that, that yes, that it's not deteriorating further, that things are a little bit better. Let's see what the jobs numbers get.
Rick Santelli
Tomorrow, which actually expectations are pretty good, 70k or so, 4 or 5 unemployment. Goldman thinks we're probably going to get back to 100 by the middle of the year. But that hiring rate, yes, the rate of hiring is not good news for young people, people getting out of college, new entrants into the workforce.
Sarah Eisen
I know. And this is the sort of weird dynamic that we're going into, which is low firing, low hiring, high growth, high productivity economy. What does that do? Should the Federal Reserve keep cutting rates? I mean, Stephen, Myron was on, was on another network this morning talking about how we need to have 150 basis points of rate cuts in 2026 to keep the businesses higher hiring. You know, David Zervos has been talking about this at Jefferies as well, which is give businesses more incentive, ease conditions all the way, even though we have strong growth to get businesses to hire more. I'm not sure that's going to really resonate at the Fed. It feels like they're going to be on hold for a little bit here. But ultimately we're going to have to contend with that dynamic. The unemployment rate tomorrow is going to be important to watch. Remember, it jumped to 4.6% last month. Any easing, I think would be welcome news if we saw a dip, you know, 0.1% or so. But let's see how it goes.
Carl Quintanilla
All right, President Trump shifting his agenda into high gear over the last 24 hours. A renewed focus on housing, the defense sector, even the auto industry. Amen. Jabras here. He's got a rundown of all of it. Eamon?
Eamon Javers
Yeah, David, that's right. Boy, a lot of market moving news coming out of the administration just yesterday. And let's start with that defense bucket that you mentioned. The president singling out the defense industry, saying it's simply too slow, too expensive and he wants to see a lot more procurement, a lot more quickly from the defense sector and particularly targeting Raytheon. Take a look at this comment from the president yesterday. The president says either Raytheon steps up and starts investing in more upfront investment like plants and equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with the Department of War. So the president there singling out Raytheon, but targeting the entire industry broadly, saying that he doesn't want the defense industry doing stock buybacks. He doesn't want defense executives making more than $5 million a year so targeting their financial operations and their executive compensation. And then on housing, take a look at the President's remarks there. The president putting out a social media post saying, I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single family homes and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations. Now, this idea has not been given sort of a lot of specificity by the White House. They have not specified exactly what steps the president is going take here just yet, but presumably we're going to hear more details on that. The president says he's going to lay out a series of ideas on affordability in his upcoming speech in two weeks in Davos. And then speaking of affordability, here's the Treasury Secretary yesterday on autos and what's going on with the President's proposal there. Also another populist kind of approach here. The Treasury Secretary laying out this new deduction for auto loans. The Treasury Secretary saying for new U.S. assembled vehicles purchased in 2025-2028, eligible taxpayers can deduct up to $10,000 per year in auto loan interest whether they itemize or take the standard deduction. Now there's a bunch of caveats around that, guys, these have to be new cars. They have to be assembled in the United States. There's a sort of means test cap. It's only eligible for sort of the lower end of the pay scale here. It phases out over time and a number of other qualifications. But that is designed to make auto loans more affordable for more Americans. All of this guy is sort of a populist approach to the economy designed to deal with affordability, which clearly the president and the administration think are going to be the key issue in the 2026 midterm elections. Guys, back over to you.
Sarah Eisen
Yeah, I mean, no question part of it is political here as well. And I'm curious, Eamon, what the reaction has been to some of these proposals because you know, with the housing one, this is something the Democrats have been pushing for for years, like Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizing companies like Blackstone for being large owners of American homes. They've been trying to do this. So they. Are they on board with this?
Eamon Javers
Yeah. I mean, you see this fascinating horseshoe moment right where some of these proposals have been put out by the populist left as well. And I think, you know, you look at this and the housing proposal in particular was pushed last year by the late Charlie Kirk in Turning Point usa, arguing that the President's got to deliver in terms of affordability for younger Trump voters and younger voters across the board, you know, delivering on bringing costs down. That was a proposal that Charlie Kirk talked about publicly last summer. And I think a lot of this is coming sort of from the MAGA populist. Right. In a way of trying to push these ideas around affordability that make life better for the, for Trump's voters, frankly. Right. And that's, that's what this is all about ahead of those elections, showing the base that you're delivering for them.
Sarah Eisen
Well, Bill Pulte is going to join us next hour. We'll hopefully get some more details on what it, what it looks like, the housing proposal.
Eamon Javers
Fascinating.
Sarah Eisen
Thanks, Eamon.
Carl Quintanilla
Let's get more on what it all means for the markets. Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associate, joins US Associates joins us now. Good to have you.
Diana Olick
Good to be here.
Carl Quintanilla
Between oil companies in Venezuela, housing defense, the government's obviously very much involved potentially and let's call it capitalism. I don't know what's your overall thoughts here. And we've seen, you know, responses in the market obviously creating a lot of volatility intraday.
Michael Yee
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and that's going to be, I think a feature of this market probably for the next three years is that we all have to keep an eye on truths and social and various social media channels for these announcements which we might not have the same lead up and understanding of before they come. I think with affordability, I completely agree with the comments you all made a minute ago that this is going to be a key issue for the election in November. The challenge is timing. Right. I think there's bipartisan agreement and I think we will get bills passed this year on housing to increase supply, to reduce time it takes to get permitting, etc. But for that to feed into a better housing market, a more affordable housing market, that's it takes years. We need more supply. We need lower mortgage rates on Venezuela. One of the things that gets back to affordability and I just want to connect these dots. You know, another affordability challenge in the United States right now is power prices, electricity prices, which have been going up quite quickly. And the doe, the Department of Energy's fact sheet that was released yesterday says America is going to help rebuild the power grid in Venezuela. We need to rebuild it here, too. I mean, we do need to do it in Venezuela if we want to pump oil, but we need it here, too. And I think it's going to be an interesting navigation for the government, if it's spending any kind of money in Venezuela and not doing the same or.
Carl Quintanilla
It'S not clear that we're going to spend the money in Venezuela as much as we're going to implore the big oil companies to potentially do it. To your point though, it will be years according to every expert we speak to.
Michael Yee
Yeah.
Carl Quintanilla
Given the, the just the totality of the level of, well, how bad the infrastructure is.
Michael Yee
Exactly. And I tried to lay this out in a New York Times op ed Monday that lower oil prices are great news for consumers. That absolutely helps with affordability because they have more money left over to spend on other stuff. But for producers, there's a sweet spot for oil prices and if we go too low, we have too much supply, it's not profitable for them to drill. So it's going to be even more challenging to get convince them to go down to Venezuela and make these long term multibillion dollar invest.
Rick Santelli
To your point about say utility prices which are running a multiple of cpi, those are set by auctions and they're, they're structured for years.
Michael Yee
Yeah. It's hard for the government to say you must do X or Y on that sort of thing. Again, we need investments in the grid, we need investments in energy, every kind of energy to help address that. And it will take. It's a timing mismatch. I think President Trump is smart to make this a narrative into the midterm. But the reality is that fixing affordability, quote unquote, is a multipronged policy and timing thing that is not going to be done by the midterm.
Sarah Eisen
Well, part of it is going to be what the job market looks like.
Michael Yee
Yes, 100%.
Sarah Eisen
And I was heartened today by a few of the data points. I don't know, I guess we'll see what the monthly report shows tomorrow. But if the worry coming out of last year year is that things were getting worse, it looks like things have.
Michael Yee
Picked up again or at a minimum they've stopped speeding up getting worse second derivative. And the Fed is going to take comfort in that. I think at the margin this gives them even more room to pause in January and just let's get some more data and watch what's happening. But I agree with you. And if people have income and they have enough confidence, which is a question mark, they'll keep spending. And we know that consumption, which has been more focused on the high end. But if you have those tax refunds coming through this spring that helps lower and middle income consumers more, I think that's part of this bullish narrative. That's the consensus view right now that at least going into the early months of this year we could have a little bit of a pickup in growth. Both payback for the shutdown, but also tax refunds, Fed cuts feeding through the job market not getting worse. So that would be good for earnings for consumer related companies at the margin.
Carl Quintanilla
So backing up to sort of, you know, your role as an asset allocator, for example, what are you thinking about in terms of the remainder? Well, much of the year is, is left only days in. That's going to work this year.
Michael Yee
Well, you know, it always makes me nervous when the consensus is so heavily in agreement and the consensus is quite bullish. The narrative is reasonable. But again, a lot is priced in. Earnings growth is priced in. Fed cuts to Fed cuts this year are priced in. So I want to make sure in a portfolio I have a bit of a barbell. So even if I miss a little of the upside, I'm protected for those surprising tweets and geopolitical events like Venezuela. So I think defense stocks still make sense globally, not just us even at these levels. I like banks to play the consumer pick up, at least in the short term, but also the deregulatory environment. You do this all day long, David. The merger and acquisition and the IPO window, it's not back to where it was in the good old days, but it's opening and it's going to last for the short term, I think at least I want to keep in gold. It's down right now, but that's technical, it's not fundamental. I think that's still a nice hedge in a portfolio. Short term interest rates are a nice hedge and then otherwise just have some geographic dispersion. Korea crushed it last year and stock market, I mean, crushed it. And that's partly because it's a tech trade. And as long as you think AI is going to rumble along, maybe with some bumps, that's a nice way to get exposure to it. But, but diversification from the US which is much more highly valued.
Carl Quintanilla
All right, Rebecca, thank you.
Diana Olick
Always.
Michael Yee
Pleasure. Thank you.
Carl Quintanilla
Always good to have you.
Sarah Eisen
Rebecca Patterson, here's our roadmap for the rest of the hour. President Trump floating the possibility the US Stays involved in Venezuela and the country's oil industry for years. Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer joins us with his take on how it could play out.
Carl Quintanilla
Plus biosec biotech stocks have been hitting record highs. We're going to get the playbook from A top analyst at UBS who says the sector is ready for an even.
Rick Santelli
Bigger move and the president, of course, threatening to ban institutional investors in single family homes. We'll talk about the potential fallout for the homebuilders and for private equity as squawk on the street comes back.
Sarah Eisen
Not every sale happens at the register.
Capella University Announcer
Before AT&T business Wireless, checking out customers.
Sarah Eisen
On our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sail or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time.
Carl Quintanilla
Sometimes AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
Capella University Announcer
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu what made you confident that you.
Michael Yee
Could do something that hadn't been done before?
Diana Olick
I have no fear of failure.
Capella University Announcer
Trailblazing women, changing the game One of.
Sarah Eisen
My favorite pieces of advice? Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short, and you just got to think big to accomplish big things.
Capella University Announcer
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
Rick Santelli
Housing stocks are on the move, as the president says he wants to ban large investment firms from buying single family homes. But that said, some hope out of CNBC's latest housing survey. And for that, we're going to turn to Diana. Oh, look. Morning, Diana.
Diana Olick
Good morning, Carl. Yeah. More real estate agents said they thought the market was balanced between buyer and seller in Q4 compared with Q3 of last year. But they're still having to convince their clients on both sides of the trade. This according to CNBC's exclusive quarterly housing market survey. Now, far more agents 65% of those we surveyed said they expect the market to improve, compared with 48% in Q3. Far fewer also expect the market to get worse. Lower prices, of course, certainly play into that. 92% of agents in Q4 had at least one seller cut the price, versus 89% in the previous quarter. And of those, nearly half said it wasn't just a few sellers, but the majority of their sellers cut prices. More agents said it was a balanced market rather than the buyers market they were seeing in Q3. And yet their buyers and sellers still have very different expectations.
Michael Yee
Buyers tend to think that the market is like 2008 and sellers tend to think that the market is closer to 2021, 2022, and those are diametrically opposed markets and diametrically opposed mindsets.
Diana Olick
2008 was of course, during the housing crash when buyers had all the power and 2021 was the start of the pandemic when just the opposite was true. Still, buyers appear to be getting used to the new normal and feeling slightly, somewhat better about prices. Agents said fewer buyers left the market in Q4 than Q3 and fewer delayed purchases. They also compromised on features they wanted less. It all begs the question, what will the upcoming spring market look like? And agents in our survey used words like stabilization, cautious optimism and pent up demand. All positive, but it will depend on the economy and interest rates as of course it always does. There is much more from the survey on cnbc.com go there right now. It's all up. Back to you guys.
Sarah Eisen
All right, we will, Diana, but also wanted to get your thoughts on, on how the president's potential executive order here that he, that he teased on housing will impact prices and affordability of homes, which as you've been covering is a huge issue. He wants to get Wall street firms out of the home buying business. How much of a dent could that make?
Diana Olick
Well, so we're looking at the numbers really. And what we do know is that institutional investors who own more than a thousand properties really only make up 3% of the entire single family rental market. Less than half a million homes. Of the 14 million homes, yes, they are concentrated in certain locations like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Florida and Las Vegas and Phoenix. Now, some are questioning whether this is kind of a swing state play because those homes are concentrated in swing state areas. But again, overall, for the housing market, even if you take single family investors out, we still need more homes. And remember, a lot of these single family rental investors, names like Invitation Homes and American Homes for Rent, they're also home builders. They build entire rental communities. And we do need that housing stock so you can really look at it either side of the table. But there has been actually bipartisan support for bringing investors out of the market simply to get more of those lower priced homes out for home buyers. Will it help? It remains to be seen. We also know that they probably need Congress to do this so we don't know how it would actually happen in reality.
Sarah Eisen
Yeah, good point, Diana. Thank you very much. And speaking of those plans, we will hopefully get more information. FHFA Director Bill Pulte will join us exclusively next hour on Money Movers to discuss. But first, still to come this hour, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer his predictions for the road ahead when it comes to US Intervention abroad. Top of mind for for investors as President Trump warns us could be running Venezuela for years. And a look at Constellation Brands new warning about Hispanic customers as shares gain on new numbers there. We'll have the details when Squawk on the street comes right back. Not every sale happens at the register.
Capella University Announcer
Before AT&T business Wireless checking out customers.
Sarah Eisen
On our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.
Carl Quintanilla
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
Capella University Announcer
Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.
Sarah Eisen
What made you confident that you could.
Michael Yee
Do something that hadn't been done before?
Diana Olick
I have no fear of failure.
Capella University Announcer
Trailblazing women, changing the game One of.
Sarah Eisen
My favorite pieces of advice think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things.
Capella University Announcer
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
Sarah Eisen
Just under 30 minutes here into the hour. Here are three big movers we're watching shares of Constellation brands gaining after a top and bottom line beat alongside reaffirmed guidance from the beer maker. The CEO, though calling out quote pronounced weakness among the Hispanic consumer cohort, specifically making an outsized impact on their beer business. Still better than expectations sends that stock up more than six and a half percent. Jefferies the first of the financials to report results under pressure despite better than expected revenues boosted by stronger M and A market. And then we're watching in video. Today reports that China plans to approve stock some imports of the company's H200 chips as soon as this quarter. Reuters reporting the company requiring full upfront payments from the Chinese customers for the chips to hedge against ongoing uncertainty over Beijing's approval of those shipments.
Rick Santelli
Recovering a bit from some early session lows. Let's get a CNBC news update with Steve Kovac. Hey, Steve.
Ian Bremmer
Hey there, Carl. Yeah. Protesters are gathered outside an immigration court in Minneapolis this morning. That's of course a day after an Ice Age agent fatally shot a 37 year old woman during an immigration operation. The demonstrators, along with state and local officials, they're demanding ICE leave the city. But Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem says the agents aren't going anywhere. Meantime, federal transportation officials say they will withhold $160 million in funding for California after the state delayed the revocation of 17,000 commercial driver's license licenses for immigrants. The government set a Monday deadline to.
Michael Yee
Cancel those licenses, but California gave the.
Ian Bremmer
Drivers until March citing lawsuits from immigrant groups. And New York City families may soon have access to free child care. Governor Kathy Hochul and New York City Mayor Zoran Madani. They are expected to unveil a new plan today to provide the benefit to families with two year olds. The first year of the program is going to focus on high need areas in the city and then later expand. Also, Hokul is expected to pledge to pursue a statewide initiative. Guys, back over to you Steve.
Rick Santelli
Appreciate that Steve Kovac after the break. UBS health care playbook as biotech stocks hover near some fresh all time highs. Take a look at the IBB today. Plus a quick mover to note. Watch Generac today gaining after Citi UPS to buy from neutral. They say recent weakness provides a good entry point for stock with multiple tailwinds ahead. We're back in a minute.
Sarah Eisen
Welcome back. The IBB Biotech ETF closing at an all time high yesterday as M and A activity in the space starts off strong here this year. Eli Lilly announcing a $1.2 billion deal yesterday to acquire inflammatory disease drug maker Ventex which caused the company's stock to skyrocket. Our next guest is bullish on biopharma stocks in the year ahead. Joining US at post 9 is UBS Global head of biotechnology research Michael Yee.
Diana Olick
Welcome back.
Sarah Eisen
New firm new year.
Michael Yee
Great to be here. Great to see you guys.
Sarah Eisen
Great to see you. So finally it's happening.
Michael Yee
Biotech M and a We think so. I think not only is M and A happening, but pharma stocks are set to take off this year. Lilly, I'm sure we'll talk about is set to go higher. We upgraded Bristol Myers and obviously Biotech, which is at a really tough past three to four years, as you said, ready to take off as well, partly due to M and a drug pricing overhang passing away. So think it's gonna be a good year.
Sarah Eisen
What is the Lilly acquisition about?
Michael Yee
The Lilly Lilly is going to do a lot of deals. We're bullish on Lilly. Lilly obviously has $100 billion of obesity revenues over the next five or 10 years. They're going to eventually have to build an early stage pipeline. They've been doing a bunch of deals over the last year or so and they're going to do some more. But they, they along with others, abbvie included, are definitely set to pick off a lot of these other smaller biotechs. That's definitely a key driver for our space.
Sarah Eisen
In what, in what categories? What types of drugs are most interesting to the big players that can be acquirers?
Michael Yee
Definitely cardiometabolic obesity. Pfizer Novo had a bidding war on a monthly injection, GLP1. So we just saw that happen. Cardiovascular disease, which is part of what the Ventix transaction is and certainly oncology. Everybody wants the next $5 billion cancer drug.
Carl Quintanilla
Let's talk biotech. I mean, you continue to believe there will be more consolidation. We have seen obviously a company gets close to having something approved, they don't have a sales force. It's all part of the process to sell to big pharma. Is that going to pick up in 2026?
Michael Yee
We think it's going to pick up. You've already started to see that happen in 25. We could debate whether FTC deal deregulation as part of that. Rates coming down, more visibility on drug pricing. It's hard to do big deals if you don't know where your drug price is going that's passing away. So we think it's green light on M and A. I think you're going to see a lot more. The biggest patent cliffs are happening in 2028 and 29. These companies, Merck, Pfizer, Lilly have the AbbVie have the biggest balance sheets they've ever had and the biggest patent cliffs they've ever had. And so we think that's definitely going.
Carl Quintanilla
To pick up in 20, going to drive it. You know, you talk about Lilly obviously coming off a very strong year as well already. And with the oral formulation soon to hit the market. And then who knows what's behind that. But given it's already $1 trillion company, why do you feel so positive that this is going to be another good year for the stock?
Michael Yee
Sure. Well, first of all, Lilly's going to have a great year this year. We got a 1250 price target, 20% more upside here first. The obesity pill or for Glipron is coming very soon. We are above consensus on that this year and we think there's gonna be great uptake. The Oral Novo drug is also just hit the tape. So that's launching. We think there is a lot more to go in obesity. The stock trades at 30 times. You know, I was in a lot of investor meetings this week. Thirty times might sound expensive for a pharma company with a great growth profile. We look across the rest of the market, you know, AI and everything else, multiples way higher than that. So certainly within health care and pharmaceutical land, best growth profile 30 times. We certainly think there's a lot more to go on Lilly.
Rick Santelli
How, how much can that market be penetrated here in the States? How many Americans can be on this pill?
Michael Yee
Millions. You know, part of it is access and pricing and around the world. So, you know, we think north of 100 billion between Novo and L. Lilly at a 2, $3,000 price tag. So millions of people can get on that, which is still not a lot of penetration as you go through the whole market. And so we're just getting started. So we think that's the way to go. And we also think to address Lilly's got additional variations of these drugs, version 2.0 and 3.0. These GLP1s are not perfect. There's better versions coming.
Sarah Eisen
But you do have an administration that's focused squarely on affordability in a midterm election year year. Drug prices are always part of that. And these companies can always be punching bags. Policy can follow. Also, you know, last year the story was RFK Jr. Different, different leaders at the FDA are going to take a longer time to approve. They're going to have a higher bar, they're going to have a different sort of set of, I don't know, qualifications and rules. All of that was considered a big headwind. What changed?
Michael Yee
And look what happened. Everyone was scared. In 2025, all the stocks plummeted. XPI hit five year low in the summer and Lilly was 700. In the last month or two, we, the administration struck many deals, including with Lilly. They cut the price of GLP1. They got access to Medicare. The cash pay price, only direct you can get these drugs. They cut the price by 50% now it's affordable. So now millions of people can get it. And all these drug companies cut good price, good deals and that overhang is moved. The second thing is the fda, they've been very focused on vaccines.
Rick Santelli
To be fair.
Michael Yee
That is a very small segment of the overall state of affairs. And actually we have not seen significant delays or regulatory problems. If anything, the Orfo Lily pill has a special voucher because they want to accelerate.
Carl Quintanilla
What about, I mean my friends Replimune I think was the name Vinay Prasad. You know, what seemed to be compelling data. There was a lot of concern around the rejections there.
Michael Yee
There are, you know, some of these small biotechs which are single arm studies or small studies or rare diseases. There's going to be some one off discussions about that. But when you think about the broader scope of biotech overall, the administration wants to get more drugs to the market. They want to get good drugs, they want to get prices down. So this is all immigration negotiation. I think we're set for a good year, guys. Let's, let's start with Lilly. We like Bristol Myers and we think it's gonna be a good year.
Sarah Eisen
All right, Michael Yee, thank you for coming on. Great talk about it. Some of your picks. Who is now UBS's global head of biotechnology bio, sorry biotechnology research.
Rick Santelli
Speaking of health care, CNBC launching a new initiative today called CNBC Cures focused on raising awareness of rare diseases. We'll get the full story in a minute. First though, you're right, you're Asia Group's Ian Bremmer on which other countries might be in the crosshairs after US Action in Venezuela will break down his key risks going forward in just a minute. Welcome back. The president set to hold talks with oil CEOs about reviving production in Venezuela. But there are many more unanswered questions about how all of this is going to play out. Let's bring in Eurasia Group president and founder Ian Bremmer. Talk about oil. What has changed in just the last few months here, Ian, and where we're headed next. It's good to see you.
Ian Bremmer
Good to see you too.
Rick Santelli
What's, what's, what's involved in making sure this happens in Venezuela regardless of how long it takes?
Ian Bremmer
Well, what's this I guess is the question, right? I mean there are a lot of different goals. We should first note that President Trump wanted Maduro out and that was a big part of what he, you know, what he's focused on. And so that's where the effort was, not so much on what the plan is for governing, what comes next. And now everyone else wants to say, well, what's going to happen in Venezuela? Trump doesn't really care who governs it, but Marco Rubio does and wants to ensure that there is some kind of a transition going forward that's going to take a year or so. And the nature of that transition is going to be important for companies that are going to be investing long term. By the way, so too is the Don Row doctrine. I mean, Trump is gone in 2029, but the oil companies that go in will still be there for much longer. Well, is that still going to be U.S. policy? Is the U.S. still going to control with, through its military, the outcomes on the ground with the Venezuelan military security services, the collectivos and the democratic opposition? I mean, you know, these are really the real questions for the job.
Rick Santelli
Yeah, I know. And we're going into this meeting tomorrow. What do you think oil CEOs are going to want to get in the way of guarantees given that the apparatus is intact?
Ian Bremmer
Well, I mean, they'd love to see long term guarantees from the US Government. Whether they're going to get them or not is an open question. Look, Trump is always looking for deals, but he's looking usually for headlines. So what he wants to do is offer announcements and pronouncements that, you know, may not actually meet. You know what they say, objects in the mirror are larger than you think. I mean, this is the way I think that the announcements will go. He said 50 million barrels of oil being guaranteed by the Venezuelans. The conversation in reality was like 15 to 25. I suspect that there's going to be a lot of showmanship and less actual details and execution capacity that comes out of a near term meeting.
Carl Quintanilla
Ian, what do you make of the jawboning around Greenland and what really may actually happen there, given the importance of that would represent for the dissolution of Naito?
Ian Bremmer
Well, I mean, it wouldn't lead to the dissolution of Naito because there's not going to be American airborne troops assaulting the territory. And you know, it's like everyone asking about, well, you know, would the Russia, if they send tanks into Poland or the Baltic states, is that, you know, going to be World War Three? No, because Russia doesn't send tanks in. They're not stupid. They, they use asymmetric warfare. And that's precisely the point is Trump is asking his people to put together a plan for how he can take Greenland without actually invading it. And that's much harder for the Europeans to effectively respond to. He does want it, and he wants it for reasons that I frankly can't understand, because we know that all of the real national security concern, concerns that the Americans should want to have addressed, even though neither Trump in his first term nor Biden actually did anything about it, could easily be addressed by picking up the phone and talking to America's NATO ally, Denmark, which includes the territory of Greenland, part of Naito. Right. And so what, what it feels like Trump wants is to say that Greenland became American under Trump. And, you know, that honestly is not in America's interest. That's in Trump's personal interests.
Sarah Eisen
I mean, he has talked about the rare earth minerals that are there. He's talking about the strategic location there with China and Russia.
Ian Bremmer
Right.
Sarah Eisen
I don't know that his strategy has not been, you know, going to European allies and asking them for help on defense. And I think there are good reasons.
Ian Bremmer
First of all, yes, it has his. It has been because exactly what's in Ukraine. He wanted the Europeans to do more of the lifting and they are now paying all of the money for Ukraine's military capabilities. None of it's coming from American taxpayers. Win. But for some reason on Greenland, he is unprepared to say, here are the things that the Americans want, let's negotiate them within the context of NATO, the longest standing, strongest military alliance, multilateral military alliance in the world. And as I said, Trump is not going to be there in 2029. But the long term damage to NATO is for the next president to pick up the pieces. And, you know, he should care about that. I know that Republican senators care about it. I talk about that with them all the time. But how much, how many of them will say that publicly in ways that appear to criticize the president? When MAGA is whatever Trump personally decides it is on any given day, it's. I understand it's challenging within the party.
Rick Santelli
Finally, Ian, it sounds like the Colombian president and Trump have cooled their jets after some heated rhetoric in recent weeks. I'm curious what you think about that and Cuba. If this oil flow is truly choked off, what is the potential for a migration crisis and would that affect us directly?
Ian Bremmer
Look, the Colombian president is being sanctioned personally by the United States. This is a huge problem for him. He wants to opine on all issues. He's president of a small country. He doesn't like being in a fight with the United States. So when Trump, you know, Sort of talked to him, was willing to have a phone call with him, and he made it sound in the press conference like, oh, I, I didn't even know he was calling. I had to run to make sure I got to the phone. Even though his people have been begging for this call for weeks now. And he's, you know, invited him, said, we should go to an island in Colombia. You know, you don't need the security. We could really get to know each other. I mean, it was, it was kind of weird, but, I mean, he was overjoyed that the fact that Trump is now willing to engage with him and is, and is kind of friendly. And, you know, we're all going to be watching this play out in real time in Davos with 80 heads of state, everyone jostling to try to show how much they get along with Trump personally, no matter what they think privately and what they say privately, because he's more powerful. I get that Cuba's a different story. And Cuba, you know, is a place where definitely 60 years of this being a thorn in Democratic and Republican president sides alike. Marco Rubio would love to see this regime gone, but he has been saying privately that he understands that they are not exporting instability the way that Venezuela has. And I suspect that they are willing to wait this out a bit. Let's see what happens if they continue to squeeze the Cubans that suddenly won't be getting a lot of cheap oil from Venezuela, probably from Mexico, to see how the Americans play that. That, that is going to be a huge issue that could easily hit American shores going forward.
Becky Quick
Forward.
Rick Santelli
Right, Ian, you're right. It's going to be a huge topic for Davos not too long from now. We'll talk soon, I hope. Ian Bremmer, guys.
Ian Bremmer
Yep.
Sarah Eisen
A new initiative from CNBC launching today at the intersection of health care and business. And you don't want to miss it, the story behind it. We're back in just a moment.
Rick Santelli
Today, we're launching CNBC Cures, a new initiative focused on raising awareness for rare diseases and improving outcomes for people who have them. It's a cause that's near and dear to our friend and colleague Becky Quick, who we're pleased to say joins us here at Post 9 with more details. Good to see you.
Becky Quick
Good to see you, too, Carl. Hi, guys. Good to see all of you. You know, rare diseases impact tiny patient populations. There are thousands of individual diagnoses, but collectively, 1 in 10Americans lives with a rare disease. Half of those are children. My daughter Kaylee is one of them, she was diagnosed with a neurodiverma, neurodevelopmental condition called SYNGAP. 1. Six years ago, learning how to parent a child with a rare disease changed our world in ways that we could have never imagined. Up until now. I've chosen to keep this part of my life mostly separate from my life here at cnbc. But that changes today. I sat down with my husband and CNBC colleague, senior executive producer Matt Quayle, to tell our story, starting from our first shock at Caylee's initial diagnosis and the emotions that we first felt when doctors began telling us about her limitations. You start to peel back and worry about what might not happen for her. And I remember at first thinking, okay, being mad when he said, maybe she's not going to be a Fortune 500 CEO, and then thinking, if we could just get her to college, that would be great. And then thinking, well, she doesn't have to go to college if she can.
Michael Yee
Just.
Becky Quick
Find something that she loves doing. And then you start rolling it back and it's like, if she can just walk, if she can just talk, uh oh. If she can just find a friend.
Rick Santelli
I want to say it was the first birthday party. It felt like a wake.
Sarah Eisen
And now we're in a great adoption.
Rick Santelli
There was something so wrong with it, and we were just, we knew we were trying to be happy and we were trying to celebrate it.
Ian Bremmer
Happy birthday to you.
Rick Santelli
But she couldn't blow out the candle right like that. We weren't there yet and she wasn't able to do that. So we kind of faked it because we wanted to make it feel like it was normal and it wasn't normal.
Sarah Eisen
And we knew it.
Becky Quick
There are 30 million Americans with a rare disease, as many as 400 million people around the globe. And there's a lot that we can learn from each other. We're proud of the CNBC Cures initiative and we're working on ways to get the word out. We've got a new weekly newsletter that you can sign up for by scanning the QR code that's on your screen right now. There's a new podcast series. It's called the Path with Becky Quick where I talk about these issues and much more. We're going to have an hour long documentary that will air later this year. And on March 3, we are hosting the CNBC Cure Summit. It's a live event that's focused entirely on rare disease. You can register for that and hear more about our family's rare disease journey at cnbc.com/cures.
Rick Santelli
Becky, got to hand it to you. This must be difficult. And I can see why it took you so long to. To come to grips with disclosing it publicly. What are your goals in this whole project? What do you want to see happen?
Becky Quick
The reason we are talking about this story now and kind of bringing it public is because we know so much more about rare disease at this point. We realize that, first of all, it's not rare. There are so many people that it impacts. But every one of these rare diseases, or orphan diseases, as they're sometimes called, the community is pretty small. And you feel like you're walking a very lonely path. There are things that can be done on. On the regulatory front, on the legislative front, that I think would push some of these amazing new discoveries that are taking place in technology and in science right now. Maybe more to the forefront, maybe get it from the labs to the patient's arms a little faster, because you can't treat these the same way you do a big disease like an Alzheimer's or a cancer or so many other diseases that are out there. The patient population is so small that it's very difficult to get a phase one trial up and running. Not just from the money perspective, but even having enough patients that you could enroll in a study. The FDA has been at work at this under Scott Gottlieb. When he was there, they started making some changes that would make it faster. But I think there's much more that can be done. And the deeper we've gotten into this, the more we've seen how much these communities have in common and how much they can learn from each other. So part of it is raising awareness, making sure that we bring these communities together and that they learn from each other. But honestly, CNBC is an unbelievable platform. Our viewers are the people who can make a difference in these issues, whether it be investors, whether it be executives from some of these big companies, whether it be the regulators and the legislators. I think we can really push this forward for and help a lot of people along the way.
Carl Quintanilla
Yeah, I mean, you say rare diseases, but not that rare. Do we even know what the size of the patient populations really are for some of these?
Becky Quick
It varies. For Kaylee, she's one of 1700 people in the world that's been identified with Syngap. When she was first diagnosed, there were fewer than a thousand people. I think as of last week or the week before, it was 1707 people who have been identified. But it's kind of amazing. I've met People along the way that I've just run into when you start talking about it, who know. At the Today show this morning, a woman came up to me and said that her boyfriend's son had syngap too.
Rick Santelli
I was going to say, how long did it take before you ran into a family where you said that's exactly what we've been going through.
Becky Quick
The first time was maybe three years ago. And look, we ran into them, they were two blocks away from us at the beach. But we were brought together thanks in part to social media and these family communities and these groups and networks that kind of pull people together. So it's, it's rare but when you combine them all, it's a really big population and that's what you need. You need that total addressable market before you are going to get money or drugs or attention that are really kind of focused on these, on these.
Sarah Eisen
How she doing? I mean, you guys. It also highlights the role of parents and how important you have to be and how involved you have to be. Hard enough to have her siblings without these diseases.
Becky Quick
Yeah, her siblings too are phenomenal. They're so wonderful with her, her aunts and uncles, her cousins. But Kaylee's doing well. She's nine years old. She can walk, she can run, she swims. She's very loving child. She lights up the room. She's still working on speech pretty hard. She's not non verbal but because she has apraxia, she can't always get her mouth to say what she's thinking. She doesn't talk a lot, but she understands everything that's going on around her and she has really great comprehensive language abilities. And I think that's the other message I'd like to get out too. There's a lot of kids like Kaylee. We have friends who don't necessarily have sex but some of these other developmental diseases or autism or other issues along the way. And just because a child can't talk doesn't mean they're not hearing what you're saying. And I'd like to get that message out too.
Rick Santelli
We look forward to learning a lot more with you in the coming weeks and months. CNBC.com cures that's right.
Becky Quick
Thank you guys so much. Thanks Becky, I appreciate it.
Rick Santelli
We'll be right back.
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Podcast: Squawk on the Street
Date: January 8, 2026
Episode: SOTS 2nd Hour: New Jobs Data, Trump Agenda Latest, & UBS's Healthcare Playbook
Hosts: Sarah Eisen, Carl Quintanilla, David Faber
Notable Guests: Rick Santelli, Eamon Javers, Rebecca Patterson, Michael Yee (UBS), Diana Olick, Ian Bremmer, Becky Quick
This episode of Squawk on the Street dives deep into the latest economic data, explores significant political policy shifts from the Trump administration, analyzes the state of the U.S. housing market, and breaks down the biotech sector’s momentum. The team also discusses the U.S. role in Venezuelan oil and introduces CNBC’s new health initiative on rare diseases.
Rick Santelli reports a "busy morning on the data front" (01:39), highlighting robust economic signals:
Sarah Eisen emphasizes a "productivity boom":
Eamon Javers details several market-moving policies (06:43):
Bipartisan Reaction:
| Topic/Segment | Start Time | |------------------------------------------------|------------| | Economic Data Breakdown: Productivity, Jobs | 01:06 | | Trump Policy Agenda Update (Defense/Housing/Auto) | 06:28 | | Market Reaction & Macro with Rebecca Patterson | 10:30 | | Housing Market Status with Diana Olick | 18:21 | | Biotech Sector Analysis with Michael Yee (UBS) | 26:16 | | Venezuela/Geopolitical Risks (Ian Bremmer) | 33:07 | | CNBC Cures: Rare Diseases Initiative | 40:27 |
This episode offers a comprehensive update on the health of the U.S. economy, the evolving populist policy push from the Trump administration (with substantial cross-aisle echoes), the stubborn complexities of the housing market, and a bullish case for biotech as obstacles clear. The geopolitical lens focuses on U.S. engagement in Venezuela and broader risks. Becky Quick’s personal introduction of CNBC Cures highlights the real-world impacts of rare diseases and the potential for business-driven solutions. Overall, a vital guide to both the current market reality and the policy, economic, and scientific currents that will shape 2026.