Trump Sparks Defense Rally, Paramount Responds to WBD, Alphabet Leapfrogs Apple 1/8/26

Summary

Squawk on the Street – Episode Summary

Date: January 8, 2026
Hosts: Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer, David Faber
Theme: Markets React to Political Moves: Defense Rally, Oil Sector Revival, Mega Media Deals, and Alphabet’s Surprising Leap Over Apple

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1. Episode Overview

This high-energy episode covers the major market drivers from the NYSE floor. Discussion centers on how President Trump’s latest defense budget proposal sparked a sector rally, outstanding media merger drama with Paramount responding to Warner Brothers Discovery, and Alphabet topping Apple in market capitalization for the first time since 2019. The hosts also dive into the President’s outreach to oil executives about Venezuela, and riff on volatility across other hotspots like biotech, retail, and tech. Throughout, there’s incisive banter, historical context, and candid opinions.

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2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Defense Sector Soars on Trump’s Record Budget Proposal

• [01:07-02:58] President Trump calls for a $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2027, a 50% increase from current levels.
  • Cramer: “You feel like it’s a wartime footing, a cold wartime footing. What I thought was interesting is the analysts completely take it seriously…”
  • Highlights: Proposed ban on defense company buybacks and dividends to boost investment in R&D and production.
  • Shorts pummeled at first, then optimism set in as the massive budget outweighed concerns.
  • Cramer references JFK's steel price crackdown as precedent for presidential intervention in industry, refuting claims of “unprecedented” action.

    “This President, it’s not unprecedented that [he would] take these kinds of actions.” (Cramer, 04:27)

B. Institutional Home Ownership & Housing Policy

• [05:31-08:49] White House floats measures to address high institutional ownership of single-family homes.
  • Only 1.1% of U.S. housing is institutionally owned, but these units have higher vacancy rates, potentially pushing prices up.
  • Cramer: “Corporations don’t live in homes, meaning the corporations are willing to leave things vacant rather than for sell, whereas an individual doesn’t have any choice.” (07:56)
  • If forced sell-offs happened, prices in key regions (e.g., Florida) could drop.

C. Paramount-Warner Brothers Discovery Deal Drama

• [09:26-14:28] Paramount responds fiercely to WBD’s rejection of their acquisition bid.
  • Paramount reiterates offer (all-cash, $30/share) and argues for shareholder value.
  • Shareholder vote will drag out deal decision into late spring/early summer.
  • Tensions ride high: worries about financing, reverse break-up fees, and value for “Global Networks” spin-off remain.
  • Carl: “It’s going to be an interesting dance between now and the shareholder vote…” (13:47)

D. Alphabet Surpasses Apple in Market Cap

• [29:12-31:41] Alphabet’s surge makes it the most valuable listed company, overtaking Apple for the first time since 2019.
  • Stock up 65% over the past year; boosted by upgrades and robust performance.
  • Cramer: “Alphabet is a tough compare. The things that they keep doing are just remarkable…they just can’t seem to do any wrong.” (29:12)
  • YouTube highlighted as a “juggernaut,” possibly worth more than Netflix alone.
    • Carl: “YouTube itself is…if it was a public company of its own, it would probably have a market cap exceeding that of Netflix…” (31:41)

E. Oil Policy and Venezuela Revival

• [16:19-20:33] President to meet top oil CEOs about reviving Venezuela’s battered oil sector.
  • U.S. has blocked Venezuelan oil revenues to pressure the regime; now looks to restart exports under strict controls.
  • Oil sector execs seek “serious guarantees”—reluctant to move under volatile policy risk.
    • Quote from FT: “No one wants to go in there when a random effing tweet can change the entire foreign policy of the country.” (18:35)
  • Cramer: “If you like Raytheon, you got a great opportunity to buy Raytheon when the President said, listen, I’m not going to let that…” (19:49)
  • General skepticism on how much Venezuelan oil can really impact prices or supply in the near future.

F. Chips, Data Centers, and Tech Rotation

• [22:26-27:22]
  • Market rotates rapidly among sectors–from defense to banks to tech.
  • Cramer: “Every day you come in…the banks for a couple of days…defense yesterday…there’s a sector that just catches fire. Day traders are making a lot of money right here even though I don’t want to encourage them.” (24:06)
  • Nvidia and others discussed as market darlings, but high volatility persists.

G. Macro Data, Jobs & Tariffs

• [01:07, 22:00-29:12, 35:17-36:14]
  • Macro environment seen as relatively bullish: Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, trade deficit improvement.
  • Uncertainty over next moves on tariffs; numerous major retailers lined up to sue administration over enforcement.
  • “We’ll get a jobs number tomorrow, that oil CEO meeting and maybe some decisions on tariffs as SCOTUS does designate tomorrow as a decision day.” (David Faber, 22:00)

H. OpenAI & Elon Musk Lawsuit Update

• [36:15-40:49]
  • Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers refuses to dismiss Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman.
  • Case centers on alleged broken nonprofit promises by OpenAI’s leadership.
  • Jury trial set for March 30th; could threaten OpenAI’s converted for-profit structure.
  • Quote from Musk’s counsel (Macbeth reference):

    "...their false faces must hide what their false hearts doth know. The stakes could not be higher." (39:21)

  • OpenAI: calls suit “baseless, part of ongoing harassment.” (39:55)

I. Health Care, Biotech & AI Drug Discovery

• [41:08-43:49]
  • J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference and M&A anticipation lifting health sector stocks.
  • Excitement around AI-driven drug discovery.
    • Cramer: “This is the year where you will see the AI work to come up with new drugs. That would be so great if true.” (43:04)
  • Positive outlook, especially for Eli Lilly, Moderna, and others seen as innovators.

J. Retail, Costco/Nike, and Consumer Shifts

• [33:15-35:35]
  • Costco blows out December comps; viewed as a resilient growth engine.
  • Nike faces skepticism after downgrade, but Cramer sees upside due to management changes and China exposure.
  • Discount chains like Dollar Tree, Dollar General outperforming pricier rivals in current consumer environment.

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3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jim Cramer [02:16]: “You feel like it’s a wartime footing, a cold wartime footing. What I thought was interesting is the analysts completely take it seriously…”
• Jim Cramer [04:27]: “We’ve seen it before.”
• David Faber (quoting FT on Venezuela policy risk) [18:35]: “No one wants to go in there when a random effing tweet can change the entire foreign policy of the country.”
• Carl Quintanilla [31:41]: “If [YouTube] was a public company of its own, it would probably have a market cap exceeding that of Netflix…”
• Jim Cramer [29:12]: “Alphabet is a tough compare. The things that they keep doing are just remarkable…they just can’t seem to do any wrong.”
• OpenAI Lawsuit – Musk Counsel [39:21]: “…their false faces must hide what their false hearts doth know. The stakes could not be higher.”
• Jim Cramer [43:04]: “This is the year where you will see the AI work to come up with new drugs. That would be so great if true.”

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4. Timestamps for Critical Segments

• [01:07] Defense Stocks Rally on Presidential Budget
• [02:00] $1.5T Defense Budget Analysis & Historical Parallels
• [05:31] Housing Policy: Institutional Home Ownership
• [09:26] Paramount vs. Warner Brothers Discovery Bid Details
• [16:19] Oil, Venezuela, and Market Impacts
• [22:26] Tech Sector and Data Center Insights
• [29:12] Alphabet Surpasses Apple Discussion
• [36:15] Musk’s Lawsuit Against OpenAI Moves Forward
• [41:08] J.P. Morgan Health and Biotech Momentum
• [33:15, 35:17] Retail (Costco, Nike) and Consumer Trends

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5. Original Tone & Banter

• The hosts’ classic mix of rapid-fire analysis, financial savvy, and inside jokes was present throughout.
• Frequent callbacks to market history and ongoing personal jabs (“Thanks for not asking me today why Nvidia’s not up. I really appreciate it.” — Jim [44:11])
• Unflinching, candid takes on policy risks, C-suite motives, and stock market dynamics.

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Bottom Line

This episode captures a market grappling with outsized political decisions, sector rotations, and mega-cap disruptions. Defense, oil, and tech all stand at major pivots, while media deals and legal drama add to the volatility. The hosts excel at contextualizing events, finding opportunity in the chaos, and warning of risk when hype gets ahead of fundamentals. The upshot: It’s a “buoyant” but volatile start to 2026—and investors must stay nimble.

Transcript

[Carl Quintanilla]

Thy ticket, Lady Jennifer of Coolidge.

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Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here.

[Jim Cramer]

Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times.

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With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?

[Carl Quintanilla]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide Based on.

[David Faber]

The February 2025 Nielsen report.

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[Jim Cramer]

It's Jim Cramer here. You're listening to the opening bell of cnbc. Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action.

[David Faber]

Good Thursday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Kingston here with Jim Cramer. David Faber at post nine of the New York Stock Exchange free market. Adding a touch more to Wednesday selling in the Dow S and P. Although much of the macro data today is actually pretty bullish. Whether that's Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, Q3 productivity and the trade balance yields are higher. Our roadmap begins with defense stocks rallying in early trade as the President calls for a record one and a half trillion dollar defense budget takes aim at dividends and buybacks for defense companies.

[Carl Quintanilla]

The President also scheduled to meet with top oil executives tomorrow. They'll discuss how to revive Venezuela's battered oil sector and battle of market caps. Alphabet now tops Apple. That's the first time it's done that since 2019. That stock, of course up 65% over the last year, also got an upgrade and a price hike today.

[David Faber]

Let's be end with these defense stocks today jumping on the President's call for a one and a half trillion dollar military budget for 27. That would mark a 50% increase from this year's Pentagon budget. Jim. It would be almost 5% of GDP, which we really haven't done since the early 90s.

[Jim Cramer]

Right. But it's kind of a, you feel like it's a wartime footing, a cold wartime footing. What I thought was interesting is the analysts completely take it seriously. I mean, without a doubt, David, you'll get a kick out of this, so to speak. You'll have a president that will say, listen, no buybacks. And this is an industry that exists on buybacks. No dividends, okay? Because you're not doing a good job. But we're going to raise it. And the combination of when you do it so you get this, no buyback, no dividend shorts. The shorts come in and just like take them apart. And then right at the end he says, yeah, but we're going to boost your budget. You know, your earnings are going to.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Take up by 50% if I mean. So last I heard, Congress had the last word on budget.

[David Faber]

But historically, how we do things.

[Carl Quintanilla]

But that doesn't mean anything right now.

[David Faber]

Take this under advisement.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay? So I was prepared for David coming at me after what he did yesterday with the Amazon, where he really hurt.

[David Faber]

Me, where he accused you of being part of their management committee, which I.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Had forgotten this until I told because he knew there was something yesterday that went over the line and then I reminded him and that's where we are.

[Jim Cramer]

All I did was tell Jassy what to do with the retail section. But Jassy beans you. But you probably forget what happened in April 10th of 1962.

[Carl Quintanilla]

I do. Tell me what happened.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. President Kennedy, by the way, who is a liberal Democrat, just so you know, he said he had enough of the double cross of Bethlehem Steel. Bedroom steel and US steel were the two big ones, okay? Nine out of 10 richest executives work for Bethlehem Steel. Time he made a deal where he said to the, to the steelworkers, listen, you guys don't ask for price increases. Then he went to management of Bethlehem Steel, U.S. don't put any price increases through for steel. As soon as it was signed, US Steel came in, said, listen, we just put through a $6 per ton type price increase. The President said, privately said, my father always told me that all business people, businessmen, I'm sorry, were sons of bitches. But I never believed until now. And what he did was immediately say, okay, that's it. We're shifting our defense contracts away from Beckham Steel and U.S. steel because they did this. And Robert F. Kennedy Jr. I mean, excuse me, senior, immediately starts an antitrust investigation of this deal.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Your point is that the.

[Jim Cramer]

We've seen it before.

[Carl Quintanilla]

This President, it's not unprecedented that take these kinds of actions.

[Jim Cramer]

The only thing is different is he didn't have true social yet. Actually a press conference, right?

[Carl Quintanilla]

He had a press conference.

[Jim Cramer]

But I'm saying that we all accepted when he did this. When you were growing up, you thought, you know what those rich Greedy bastards. But now we think this has never been this unprecedented. Well no, it happened and they and Kennedy won. They rolled back prices and there wasn't any trust investigation. So I think that as much as you may think this is like whoever thought about this 62. I don't know if the President was.

[David Faber]

I don't, I don't think the argument is that it's unprecedented. It's that the President is acting like a Democrat.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, that's why I said liberal Democrat who did this. So I think that you could say is this a return to corporate statism, the state of the government, you know, in sync with basic, basic industry as.

[David Faber]

The biggest industry we have Barron's right to they put it using government influence to further ideological goals at the expense of free markets. That's how Barron's puts it.

[Jim Cramer]

That's exactly what President Kennedy did.

[Carl Quintanilla]

But by the way, it's not just defense. We saw yesterday as well the move on housing. Ownership of housing. Single family homes, not as much multiple family dwellings.

[Jim Cramer]

Right.

[Carl Quintanilla]

And what that may mean if in fact it comes into place even though.

[David Faber]

The percentage of housing stock owned by institutions is 1.1% but it's very doable.

[Jim Cramer]

They do have a higher rate of vacancy and if they were forced to put all their products onto the market or dump it, we could be at a tipping point of equilibrium where suddenly housing would come down. Where we've seen a concentration of unsold homes. Florida, Lenore pricing has come back to 2019. It is not, it's not a fatuous idea if you shock the market by putting.

[David Faber]

I mean already last year, Jim, he floated a 50 year mortgage. He said the Fed should take short rates to 1. Yesterday's news about institutions mortgage demand was down 10% last year.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, I mean, you know, when you listen to our own. Diana, look, you don't get the sense that there's any sense that anything can happen good in this market. I come back and say at least he's being constructive and trying to figure out not unlike David often complains about empty storefronts in buildings in New York and scaffolding.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Well, scaffolding is a huge issue in New York. You didn't want to go there with me. All my colleagues know local law 11 as I rang them forever that I feel like this law is the dumbest thing law that's ever been done. No, no other city in the world has chosen to envelop itself in tunnels. So that's what happens is you can't see the sky.

[Jim Cramer]

You have buildings that are owned by people who don't have a mortgage, therefore they don't have to put a tenant in. So therefore it's abandoned. Looks abandoned. And they're scaffolding. Well, that is exactly James Q. Wilson.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Scaffolding goes well beyond that. We've come a little bit afar from that, getting to some sort of specific issues. But I mean, Blackstone stock back to the market was down sharply yesterday and.

[David Faber]

BlackRock got unfairly developed in this whole.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Trade with it and, and homes I can understand.

[Jim Cramer]

Stick with AMH and VH if you want to like, bang these guys, see.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Whether there's a rebound at all. Because it's not clear to me at all that Blackstone has a lot of exposure to this area after the financial crisis. They did. They were active. That was a great move, by the way, by them. They did. And then they spun off much of that in the form of invitation homes of which I don't believe they own anything anymore.

[Jim Cramer]

But remember, the vacancy rate is 3.5% for the ones that are owned by corporations, 1.3% for individuals. So in that sense, the President, again saying, listen, corporations don't live in homes, meaning the corporations are willing to leave things vacant rather than for sell, whereas an individual doesn't have any choice. Remember, David, what the reason, most reason why people sell. Divorce and death. Okay.

[Carl Quintanilla]

You can see Blackstone, by the way, did recover during the course of yesterday.

[Jim Cramer]

Does not have death or divorce. Invh doesn't have divorce and America doesn't have death.

[Carl Quintanilla]

No, you've talked about those D's all the time, quite often.

[David Faber]

Death.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Divorce.

[David Faber]

Diapers was the last.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Diamonds.

[David Faber]

Diamonds, yes. Engagements. Right.

[Jim Cramer]

Wow.

[David Faber]

David and I are real estate. But your point, Jim, is that you're on the lookout for more efforts to control price going into midterms.

[Jim Cramer]

Yes, I'm efforts because we got to stop inflation. And I think that we also have to break up. Look, I was back and forth. I'm trying to get Palantir to comment on the record. We got this in this fix with the Defense Department because we allow the combination. We had this big five Mafia and they all don't. There's no competition.

[David Faber]

I thought we were all about. We love M and A.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, you mean you don't put my corporate hat on or my American hat on. I mean, I want. I want a safe defense, but I want a lot of money made. Look at Palantir. They don't have a problem.

[Carl Quintanilla]

No.

[Jim Cramer]

You think James Takelet. Do you think he's a great American Lockheed Martin CEO?

[Carl Quintanilla]

Sure. Why not? I like. Yeah, I mean, I spent a lot of time with him. I met him a few times. Very nice fellow, cetera.

[Jim Cramer]

Yes, I agree with you.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Yeah, guys, speaking of M and A, we got a response from Paramount to yesterday's Warner Brothers rejection, of course, to the latest bid from Paramount, which was the same number that $30 a share, all cash for the entire company, but included the guarantee of Larry ellison for the 40.4 billion in equity. We've got a response now from Paramount reaffirming their commitment to what they say is delivering superior 30% share, all cash offer to shareholders. Much of this may now play out, it appears, over the next months and many months until we get the shareholder vote, which is the company's chairman told me yesterday, again reaffirmed late spring, early summer, and as I've had a couple of people on the Paramount side indicate to me, dug in and grinded out. And then today was similar trench warfare up to the meeting. We'll see whether that continues, whether they battle it out shareholder after shareholder, in terms of making their case as to why they should vote down the Netflix agreement. But in their response today to the rejection, they say, as you don't, no surprise here, they clearly believe it offers greater value, more certain expedited path to completion. We've worked hard for shareholders. We remain committed to engaging with them on the merits of our superior bid. And then they go on to do something that we can't be particularly happy about here at Versant Media, which is just even talking about our own stock price, because they go on to talk about the multiple, of course, which may be significantly impacted by what has been a lot of. For selling and. Or selling since the index fund sold earlier in the week in Versant. But you do back into a multiple to EBITDA that is incredibly low. 3.8. Let's go call it.

[Jim Cramer]

But now you've got to start focusing on Yield, right?

[Carl Quintanilla]

And 4% of 30 gets to the overall value, right? So it's 2742 in cash and stock from Netflix. And then what's the value of this entity called Global Networks that will exist on its own, that will be spun off this summer? And of course, Paramount's arguing based on the Versant multiple and everything else that we know about its capital structure, it's zero. In fact, it's negative. Now, that may be unfair because it's not the same entity as Versant. They have free to air, a lot of free to air. They've got a lot of sports in Europe they claim that CNN alone could be worth upwards of $9 billion. Maybe it generates as much as $900 million in EBITDA. Unclear to me exactly where that stands right now. So it may not be a fair apples to apples comparison. And by the way, that multiple on Versant may be unduly depressed right now. Amc, for example, trades at a higher.

[Jim Cramer]

The index funds have to get out of it.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Well, they've got. Now, Jim, it's.

[Jim Cramer]

They're not done.

[Carl Quintanilla]

How can they not be done? They got to get done day one.

[Jim Cramer]

Why don't you look at the volume, look at the buy.

[Carl Quintanilla]

That's because everybody else is selling it.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, they don't know. The people don't know how to find.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Somebody to buy it.

[Jim Cramer]

That's the short. It. You have to have the heads one short. The debts have to be sure. That takes away the. The index fund. Blow it out.

[Carl Quintanilla]

What is.

[Jim Cramer]

And that's what you get. That's what happened.

[Carl Quintanilla]

It takes away from what is an interesting analysis here from. From Paramount. Now we're not going to get it from Warner Brothers Discovery. I can tell you they're not going to provide that. They don't feel like they're doing the fiduciary duty by putting a particular number on what they feel the spin is.

[Jim Cramer]

Going to be 34 zones. You need. Well with it.

[Carl Quintanilla]

That's what you think ultimately gets us.

[Jim Cramer]

Know that.

[Carl Quintanilla]

I know what I will tell you actually, what I believe might actually get it done and move the needle at this point is given their concerns about bank financing at Warner Brothers, continued concerns as to whether they could pull given the financial constraints that in fact Paramount might find itself under in 12 to 18 months. They want a very large reverse break fee. 5.8 billion. Forget that. Let's talk 8, $10 billion or more. And they want it very clear that the 2.8 billion break fee would be paid by Paramount and on from there. Will Paramount be willing to step up into that? Unclear.

[Jim Cramer]

Can Charlie Schroff say it? Can he come out today? Wells Fargo.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Wells Fargo is. Is Netflix.

[Jim Cramer]

No, I'm saying can. All right, so who's going to come out and say which bank can come out?

[Carl Quintanilla]

Bank of America, Citi and Apollo are the money. Nobody's questioning that. Paramount makes the point in their release in fact as well that the debt financing, you know, is not something that should be in question. These are among, you know, the most sophisticated financial institutions in the world with decades of experience.

[Jim Cramer]

Is that a typical. You think?

[Carl Quintanilla]

Listen, I think the Warner Brothers side actually believes that if in fact, things were to go bad, really bad on Paramount, the equity holders might back away and you might actually have a case where they say, please, banks figure out a way not to fund so that you can get us out of our commitment. So I don't know what moves the needle here guys, but it's going to be an interesting dance between now and potentially the shareholder vote that's many months from now if Paramount does choose not to increase its offer and answer some of these key questions that Warner Brothers continues to have. And a lot of it does go to the operating covenants that they believe straight jacket them at Warner Brothers that Paramount wants that are different than the Netflix deal to be fair.

[Jim Cramer]

How did you feel about your guest.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Paramount having veto rights over financing decisions and things like that? My guest yesterday, Matt, how about from Penworth, is a very serious guy.

[Jim Cramer]

He's very serious.

[Carl Quintanilla]

He's a very serious guy. But for, for every. How about. I think there may be some shareholders at Warner Brothers who feel differently and agree with the board of directors. I think their advisors are telling them no way man. You cannot accept this idea of a Paramount deal with a company that's going to be seven times levered. And I know that shouldn't matter because cash is cash and who cares what they look like once you get your money. But their worry is you won't get your money. That's where we stand. You saw the response today from them and we'll take it from there.

[Jim Cramer]

Carl, great setup.

[David Faber]

I guess we just are going to chop around this until thankfully there will be some quiet.

[Carl Quintanilla]

If they don't actually do anything, we're not going to hit it every day. I promise.

[David Faber]

Promise.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Even though I'll get calls every day.

[David Faber]

Take a look at the pre market. Little softness here on this Thursday. Actually a lot of sell side research activity today. Downgraded Nike but some upgrades of Tyson, Roku, the autos Gap and Google when.

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[Carl Quintanilla]

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[Carl Quintanilla]

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[Carl Quintanilla]

One of my favorite pieces of advice.

[Jim Cramer]

Think about what your boss's boss needs.

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[David Faber]

The Chevron ExxonMobil ConocoPhillips are up in the premarket. Tomorrow, the president is slated to meet with oil company CEOs at the White House to discuss reviving production in Venezuela. Yesterday on Power Lunch, Brian Sullivan asked the energy secretary about taking Venezuela's oil and selling it and what that has to do with rebuilding the country. Here's the secretary's response.

[Jim Cramer]

Number one, we're not taking their oil.

[Carl Quintanilla]

We're not taking their oil.

[Jim Cramer]

We have put a blockade on and.

[David Faber]

Prevented them from selling their oil.

[Carl Quintanilla]

That's choked off cash flow. They get cash from selling oil and from selling drugs and from human trafficking. So we're going to we choked off their revenue sources to get leverage over them. We're going to restart the selling of Venezuelan oil on global crude markets, put it into counts in the name of.

[David Faber]

Venezuela oils higher today, reversing a couple of days of down action. This interview with the Times as well, Jim, is notable where he says us likely to be involved in running the country possibly for years.

[Jim Cramer]

And yet I had Rusty Brazil and yesterday I think is the foremost guy. He's done a lot of planning for all the major oils. He does rpn and he just said look, it's not a slot, not a sideshow, but the amount really involved here is not really going to move the needle. We were just comparing the Permian to Venezuela Permian much bigger. David, I think it's a fascinating story, but if you think that it's going to bring oil prices down, that's probably not true yet. I think that's something that the president stands for and has stood for for almost all his life.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Yeah. I mean the coverage, of course, not just in the Times, but others, he wants the price of oil down around 50 bucks, which is a level at which you may start to see a lot. You know, fewer rigs potentially and oil workers and oil workers. So everything's got a balance. It's pretty low right now. I mean 57. We can take a look, of course where we've been, you can see that. But everyone agrees, Jim and the experts, obviously I'll defer to such as Rusty, of course, that it would take a lot of money and a lot of time.

[Jim Cramer]

He said that Rusty said the infrastructure is worthless, the whole refining infrastructure. It's not like we'll go down and put a billion in and it's going to just Maybe we even have what, Rusty.

[David Faber]

Right. Meantime, there's this piece in the FTSE about the meeting tomorrow saying that the CEOs are going to demand some pretty serious guarantees. This one quote. No one wants to go in there when a random effing tweet can change the entire foreign policy of the country.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, you know, I thought that that was an interesting quote for the whole, our whole show so far. Although I would have left out the F. I do think that there is a sense that maybe we have to accept the fact that a little more risk in owning stocks and you know, witness Raytheon. Raytheon is a great company. It's really well run. It's done. Terrific. It's down huge. And then it's up huge off the, you know, of the increase in defense budget. These stocks are trading. The big story about Exxon is, is it's gonna miss the numbers, but it's trading off of Venezuela. I think we're going to have to start thinking, you know what, I don't know how seriously we should take the President unless he can back this up with real change, like whether.

[Carl Quintanilla]

But at the same time, you can hear musings about taking, taking Maduro out in Venezuela and people like, oh, that's not going to happen. And then it does, which is why there's continued pressure on ratio on Greenland or others. You know, you've got to take into account the geopolitical ramifications. What if we do something? I don't know.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, I'm just saying, if you like, if you like Raytheon, you got a great opportunity to buy Raytheon. When the President said, listen, I'm not going to let that.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Because you don't think there'll be a follow through.

[Jim Cramer]

Exactly. It's scary and not unlike. That's why I mentioned jfk. JFK got the price increase down. Yeah, but this is different. You can't really get in and say, listen, we're not going to let you give you that. Give that dividend.

[Carl Quintanilla]

I mean, the Carl's point. You walk into the Oval tomorrow with the President as the CEO of one of the major oil companies. It's, it's precarious. You've got to be, you know, what, what is his ass going to be? What is your ass going to be? And how does that all play out? There may at some point be a trade mission down there to Venezuela. With all these guys. We'll see.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, look, I just urge people that they want to invest in it, not trade and invest in it. If A stock really gets hit you think is valuable, buy some. It's going to because the company is going to prevail in the end. But I understand how people think. It's everything's fraud in the last 10 minutes of major, major companies. The stocks trade like small cap. They were small cap stocks. Yeah.

[David Faber]

Huge, huge swings, volatility. We'll get Kramer's mad dash in the opening bell after a short break.

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[Carl Quintanilla]

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[Jim Cramer]

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[David Faber]

We are making our way through a very eventful week. Whether that's Venezuela, pretty positive macro data points. We'll get a jobs number tomorrow, that oil CEO meeting and maybe some decisions on tariffs as SCOTUS does designate tomorrow as a decision day. We'll get the opening bell in a minute. Don't forget you can catch us anytime and anywhere. Just listen to and follow the squawk on the street. Opening Bell podcast.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Let's do it. Mad dash for this Thursday got an opening bell a minute and a half from now.

[Jim Cramer]

Where we headed? Ever since Bloom Energy came public in July of 25 2018, okay, it's done very little but they have a technology called solid oxide which is it for data centers. Turns out to be a good fuel. American Electric Power, very forward looking utility, largest transmission company in the country did a $2.65 billion deal then they signed it this week. And you know what David, this fuel in the company is a profitable company. This is one of those companies that it just they weren't doing something that could be feasible and now because of the price of energy how difficult is to get they have a data center.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Play which I mean we Talk a lot about Caterpillar but same thing might have been unexpected that that would be a growth engine for the company a couple of years ago here it is.

[Jim Cramer]

So it was like one of those things that came from the spate from NASA. I just want to point out that not everything in the data center is we're inventing things or things are getting to be so valuable. It's so expensive to have energy at a company like bloom. New technology being used to solve the problem. I think it's terrific and congratulations to both companies for seeing another way out of the gym.

[David Faber]

Let's get the opening bell here in the CNBC real time exchange for the.

[Jim Cramer]

Big board it is Wed Bush our.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Friend Dan his AI revolution ETF we.

[Jim Cramer]

Can guest of the show doing the honors.

[Carl Quintanilla]

You can spot him.

[Jim Cramer]

He's the one in the yellow. Yes.

[David Faber]

At the Nasdaq at Sunopter provider of organic and plant based food and beverages.

[Jim Cramer]

It's such a strange market Carl. I mean we're rotating from one area to another to another to another. In that sense it is exciting I think very exciting market but that's obviously not the way you want to invest but every day you come in with the banks for a couple of days. We had obviously defense yesterday. There's a sector that just catches fire and day traders are making a lot of money right here even though I don't want to encourage them.

[David Faber]

Yeah which kind of belies the VIX which is barely budged about 15 spragues after 90 billion in new issuance in the first few days of the year. Amazing.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh I just I've got to tell you when I'm saying looking at the amount of money global startup funding rate up 30% year over year in 2025 for 25 billion. Well we're just going to see those companies come public company it's a very buoyant market. In the meantime you have Western Digital that had been the leader now that's coming back down and that turned out to be a very exciting trade. Monday was Chevron was a very exciting trade. So this the only ones holding up the sandisk I think thought with Samsung's announcement of great earnings last night that was also about the shortage of these what are used to be called less intense not as complicated storage plays are doing better than anything that is complicated. So good that's your chance to go and say that the complicated chips are not doing that well.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Say it the complicated chips are not doing that well.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm giving you an opening. Last night Bloomberg reported that in video it's all systems go on the H200 from China. They're going to probably, you know, all.

[David Faber]

Systems go with some, with some cab military video.

[Jim Cramer]

I mean between the people come on our air and say that it's a short and the commercials that I've had to endure for the last 200 points to say it's short, that's split adjusted. There is just a feeling David that this one is more of a head and shoulders play than it is a play about intellectual property.

[David Faber]

Do you think that the, the story regarding China bound crude Venezuela intersects with H2 hundreds and ships.

[Jim Cramer]

Look, I think that if you want to I would take it to the point where cybersecurity gets. We talked about that yesterday. George Kersh was a very good private privileged access management acquisition just now. I think that we the cold war came continues in all sorts of variations. You know Japan, all the fight with about China but what is about Taiwan? So I mean I think the geopolitical risk is much higher than it's been because we do know that if they can, if we can take Maduro, the things that people talk about of what China can do would make it so that you would not want to own Taiwan. Semi I'm a little less catastrophic about it and I think in videos a buy on what they're doing but the market say I'm wrong.

[David Faber]

Well certainly a lot of charts floating around today about financial conditions being quite loose. Some of these. You saw the trade deficit number, you saw the productivity number at 4 9.

[Jim Cramer]

That was amazing. Look, I think that a new Fed chief is going to have to think about what the right thing to do is because we know the housing is not doing well, but everybody else is kind of doing well.

[David Faber]

Right. We're going to hear Besant later today and we'll talk to Hassett tomorrow. Besson speaking at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Myron's on the tape today, Jim, looking for another one and a half points of cuts this year underlying inflation running to 3 he says and he thinks we could add a million jobs without adding jobs.

[Jim Cramer]

We need a million people. And they accept, you know there are issues here in terms of number of people.

[Carl Quintanilla]

There are, there are issues. There are, there are not more people. There may even be fewer people to some extent given the workforce is being reduced, you could argue as a result of the aggressive deportation policy.

[Jim Cramer]

You know you look at a constellation brands, people feel that they are over indexed for Hispanic maybe that the risk is being ratcheted back of Hispanics being able to Go out. Which is there was a sense that was the problem. This is Modelo and see what happened. Maybe that may be getting a little better.

[Carl Quintanilla]

They have cited this. It's. It's that. Right. People are not a part of the population. They service to a certain extent is not congregating as often and maybe not. Maybe things are celebrating not drinking as much together in that way and. Yeah. But maybe getting a little bit better now.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah. Look it's. It. Maybe it's just laughing, you know.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Right.

[Jim Cramer]

Although.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Well, not a year ago really because it wasn't happening.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm going to take the Constellation move as being that things have easy.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Things have gotten a bit easier.

[Jim Cramer]

I have to do that because there's no other reason. We have a case. But you have the number one. Sales are not as bad when it.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Comes to moves of companies. We watch closely. We mentioned at the top of the hour, of course Apple's market value is below that of Google or Alphabet. That can take continues. Apple shares have begun the year with a 5 plus percent slide that continues this morning. What do you make of it, Jim?

[Jim Cramer]

Well, I do think that some people feel that some of the services revenue may not be that strong. I disagree with that. It did have a fantastic move at the end of the year and we are in a what have you done for me lately market. I've got to tell you that Alphabet is a tough compare. The things that they keep doing are just remarkable. It's just they just can't seem to do any wrong.

[Carl Quintanilla]

They are in a very good position and they've had a great run, of course in the stock, as you can see right there. I've made this point so many times but it bears repeating. I mean a year ago we were having such a different conversation about versus 26. We were talking about its monopoly on search being truly threatened by open air. The fact that they were behind seemingly in their chat bot at Gemini that organizationally they didn't seem to perhaps have barred things working the way they should have a year later. Such a difference.

[Jim Cramer]

And what you said and Judge Mehta.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Which you have pointed out numerous times, which is so important the remedy for the antitrust trial from the US Government. Which one of course accusing Alphabet of being a monopoly got them nothing.

[Jim Cramer]

That's like Rockefeller.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Yeah.

[Jim Cramer]

Monopolist.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Yeah. Don't worry about it.

[Jim Cramer]

Nobody's perfect. Exactly. Thank you, Joey Brown. The thing that you keep pointing out that you didn't just now that is incredible is this that you talk about Paramount, CNN, all that stuff. YouTube.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Oh my God. YouTube.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, my God. Games that match YouTube.

[Carl Quintanilla]

YouTube is dominant and there is a belief that it will only continue to become even more so.

[Jim Cramer]

But when you cut the Cable, went to YouTube. Can you believe there's almost no latency?

[David Faber]

Oh, yeah.

[Carl Quintanilla]

YouTube TV is, is a good product. I'm not sure economically it's any cheaper than having your cable bundle, by the way, to a certain extent. Well, I'm the idiot who's paying for both right now, so that's the most.

[Jim Cramer]

Talk to me about that today.

[Carl Quintanilla]

I know. What then I'm an idiot.

[Jim Cramer]

I save a fortune on this when I cut the court. But then we're not connected with that other outfit. No, no, no.

[Carl Quintanilla]

YouTube TV. You absolutely get CNBC.

[Jim Cramer]

Just saying YouTube is getting itself. The latency is bad. I mean, if you're gambling on the eagles and you know, you're given four and a half, there's a possibility that you miss a play and you gambled incorrectly. DraftKings. I'm just saying that there is this. YouTube just took the whole. Like your kids told you, hey, dad, how much you paying? And I, look, I was, I said, listen, I work for YouTube is a giant.

[Carl Quintanilla]

YouTube TV may not be making as much money in and of itself as they're even carrying part of it.

[Jim Cramer]

They don't even care yet. Have you ever watched the package where they have these, like, pictures of, like, animals? And here you have a Zen moment. They could be making, like millions of senses, right?

[Carl Quintanilla]

You have a Zen moment. I know, I've seen Zen. But YouTube itself is. Yeah. If it was a public company of its own, it would probably have a market cap exceeding that of Netflix, given its profile and its growth rate.

[Jim Cramer]

It's incredible. Out of nowhere.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Out of nowhere. Well, I don't know that I'm saying.

[Jim Cramer]

What became the number one. I mean, I know that if we had Netflix here, they tell you, look, you know, if you're going to compete for time, they always say who's done it.

[David Faber]

Yeah, I mean, Netflix. Netflix shares are down by what, a third in six months? Something like that?

[Jim Cramer]

David Kill.

[Carl Quintanilla]

A lot of Netflix's decline is due to its continued and the belief that it will be the winner, so to speak. And obviously having a merger agreement makes you a powerful income incumbency is important in a, in a fight that's going on right now. And Netflix has that. I'm not sure its shareholders love that. You can see what's happened since the, the deal was announced. The stock has really done nothing but go down. It is now far Below the bottom of the collar the impact is not that significant on the overall value being delivered to Warner Brothers shareholders because stock is such a small component of the overall value. That said it impacts it and you know if you're Netflix Carl and you were to like and you if Paramount does come back with something that leads to a superior proposal or is considered let's say Netflix might very well say we're going to go up a couple of bucks. How do you if you're Netflix and you making the strategic argument we need this asset, can you really walk away from it? If Paramount say I forget it. Don't worry about that, we're fine.

[David Faber]

Yeah that would be. That would be not. Not the best look in the eyes of some shareholders let's say Jim, I do want to get you on Costco because those December comps were a blowout at 98 looking for five to interestingly Walmart's the worst performing down name.

[Jim Cramer]

I know it's just a reversion from last last year the Costco the monthlies were very good Even ex Gasoline always look at and I love the categories like tires. That's something I've always been very competitive with. Food is good but what I like the most is that this is a stock that I think is putting that new new low list behind them technically is very good for what that's worth But I do know that this is the first real beat that we've seen in any of the numbers. We need to see E Comm numbers up more but it would be great to see this company reassert itself as one of the great growth companies. It has been horrible.

[David Faber]

What do you make of this? Needham downgraded Nike Fatuous turnaround slower than expected.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, that's right. Tim Cook doesn't know what he's doing when he's buying. Elliot Hill doesn't always do it. Bob Swan. I know you always fellow you're critical Bob Swan when he's running CEO of Intel.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Was I critical at the time But I don't remember being critical but perhaps I was.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah but when you look at it, when you look at this and you think you downgraded here. I mean how about 120? I mean really. Oh no. Two front split. I mean honestly, you think Elliot Hill is just sitting there playing tiddlywinks? I mean Elliot Hill is working his butt off. He's got a win now program. The win now does not mean win later.

[Carl Quintanilla]

But it's Gerald for Ford.

[Jim Cramer]

That's with inflation. Now I like Nike I mean I.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Have a win button.

[Jim Cramer]

I think it's next man up at Nike.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Next man up.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah. If you don't deliver your. Have you seen it? Look, there's a series of of changes personnel. I think that they're from what I can tell, all excellent. I don't want to bet against him. If you see him going to China, not Nixon. If you see Elliot, he'll go to China and spend that turn. Get that turnaround for the -9. That stock's at 100. You down, got your. Your own pearl. But VF Corp. I like to upgrade.

[David Faber]

Yeah. Really quick on retail. I don't. Have you seen the list of companies that have lined up to sue the Trump administration on tariffs? It includes Costco, Goodyear, Luxottica, Elf Dole and a bunch of others. We'll see. You think we're going to get anything tomorrow? Who knows?

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, we don't know. Dice roll. Yeah, dice roll. I've got to tell you that when I look at five below Dollar Tree, Dollar General, that's where the action has been. Fuller price. Retail, not so good. VF Corp. The upgrade. There's a bracken Darrell. That is a change. That's North Face and Timberland doing well. I'd rather be in the down and out of like a North Face. Not worried as much about what the. What happens with the government. But Dollar General, these policies can't be stopped and that just because people feel like. You know my wife said the other day, Jim, what do you think about the economy? Unbelievable. I mean everyone knows about the case. I'm not denigrate my wife, she's never watched the show. So I'm so far I'm money good.

[Carl Quintanilla]

All right.

[Jim Cramer]

Government.

[Carl Quintanilla]

You know what I've got? I got a little report here on the most important company that doesn't trade publicly.

[Jim Cramer]

Most important company open. Thank you. Got it. That was close. Thank you. Sarah Farr.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Guys. Important. You know, we'll see how important but important development yesterday in federal court in the Northern district of California. That is where Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers was taking into account a lawsuit that was filed some time ago by elon Musk against OpenAI. You may remember we've talked about this a bit in the past as well. The lawsuit in which he said he was deliberately induced to co found and fund OpenAI based essentially on promises that it would remain a NonProfit and prioritize AI safety and openly share its research for the benefit of humanity. Well, according to the complaint, of course once the technology advanced and again this is the complaint originally in the lawsuit and approached Artificial General Intelligence. They're not there yet. Sam Altman abandoning that commitment and engineering a shift toward profit and control. That is the basis for the complaint. What happened Yesterday is that OpenAI's attempts to get a summary judgment and have it essentially thrown out failed. Yesterday Judge Rogers indicated she intends to deny open a motion and also Microsoft as its partner as well, in part its motion. So four of the claims brought by Mr. Musk against Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, of course, is one of the founders of OpenAI as well, are going to trial, namely constructive fraud, breach of charitable trust, unjust enrichment. All going to trial March 30th. Phase one trial for this. It's important because it could have a significant, significant impact potentially on OpenAI's now for profit structure. But again, it's a jury trial. It will begin March 30th. It's very much unclear how it will go and what exactly if they were to be victorious would be the claims that would be acted on by the jury.

[Jim Cramer]

Jury trial. But Judge Rogers legendary kind of a, I would say populist. A pop in the epic case.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Right?

[Jim Cramer]

With Apple you raise less corn, more help. Judge, really. She's talking about a wildcard.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Wildcard. But this is something that we're going to have to focus on, I think in part because it is important. If it's monetary damages only, what are they? We obviously know the last thing in OpenAI wants to do is part with money for something like having to pay Mr. Musk and others. And it could potentially be even more important than that. Let me give you a statement that I've got from Mark Tobaroff. He's the lead counsel for Elon Musk. The hearing confirms what we've maintained from the outset. There's substantial evidence that OpenAI's leadership made knowingly false assurances to Mr. Musk about its charitable mission that they never honored in favor of their personal self enrichment. Now their false faces must hide what their false hearts doth know. Quote from Macbeth there. And the stakes could not be higher. Go on to say we appreciate the court's thorough and fair consideration and they look forward to trial. By the way, in their complaint they also talked about this being a drama of Shakespearean kind of proportions. So they like Shakespeare over there. Got a response from OpenAI guys. Mr. Musk's lawsuit continues to be baseless and a part of his ongoing pattern of harassment. And we look forward to demonstrating this at trial. We remain focused on empowering the OpenAI foundation which is already one of the best resourced nonprofits ever.

[Jim Cramer]

And of course that is the third.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Chief 27% of the ownership of OpenAI is of course that nonprofit and if it's half a trillion, if it's 750 billion well you can do the math. It's a pretty well endowed foundation guys going to be important. We'll continue to focus on it as we get closer to trial.

[Jim Cramer]

My kingdom for video Blackwell that's Richard.

[Carl Quintanilla]

The third true.

[David Faber]

As we go to break watch Watch bonds here 10 year once again approaching for 19 which it's backed away from three times since December 9th. We are trying to hold 6900 got Google all time high Defense companies definitely leading the charge here. We're back in a minute. One of the pleasant surprises of the year has been auto sales and today Piper ups the bottom three of those GM Ford Stellantis they say positive earnings revisions limited China competition a less combative epa.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah boy the Ford call is really good. I think the G Farley once they stepped away from really expensive that can go much higher.

[David Faber]

Keep an eye even as we know what pricing has done in the industry. Well watch the Dow which has gone green here up 38. Stop trading with Jim is next. Let's get to Jim and stop trading.

[Jim Cramer]

Wolf good firm upgrades Merck from Hold by poised for breakout. I mentioned this because next week is the JP Morgan healthier commerce. I'll go out there and view about 14 CEOs in two days and this is where people make announcements. This is where deals are made and this I think is a forerunner of what you can expect. The health care segment I think can be on fire between now and next Tuesday because there is so much news going to be coming and the flow I think will be largely positive.

[David Faber]

What explains the positive action in let's say Moderna? I'm looking at Pfizer here. You know given given some of the overhaul of recommendations.

[Jim Cramer]

Great point. I mean Pfizer people talking about maybe they have a larger larger platform they've been stuck on. I think on the C gen Moderna look we always hear about the I remember when I first started going this we heard about the cancer vaccine maybe they have something but there are breakthroughs that occur that you hear about there. It's extraordinary. A lot of the theme this year is going to be AI and drug discovery but these upgrades that you're hearing are all related to Monday and Tuesday.

[David Faber]

And so you don't think it's going to be just a big M and A optionality parlor game.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm seeing Eli Lilly. I expect to see some things you got to I mean look I'm not saying got to watch a show naked.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Promotion of course you got to watch the show. By the way, the last quarter of the year of 2025 biotech took off as well. There's been a lot of concern there around approvals from the FDA for example or lack of thereof. I was hearing a lot about on the earlier stage in terms of venture money not being as confident. But biotech took off and I'm going.

[Jim Cramer]

To talk about a lot of those companies. I got a couple in particular I look forward to staying. I think health care very big issue this year. Why? Because Jensen is saying this is the year where you will see the AI work to come up with new drugs. That would be so great if true.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Have to hope that's that's been one of the when you talk about all the negatives on AI, what it mean may mean for society. It's always you always get yes but.

[Jim Cramer]

Drug discovery will tell you watching Matt Quail and Becky quick today.

[David Faber]

Yeah we're going to talk to Becky.

[Jim Cramer]

Later this well I mean you just have to hope maybe I, maybe I als I was talking to a drug CEO yesterday maybe nothing they just can't, they can't make progress. AI is the hope really is it's for real.

[David Faber]

Well watching look forward to talking to Becky about obviously very personal story but.

[Jim Cramer]

With huge really public and then David just again David. Yes sir. I think you've killed.

[Carl Quintanilla]

I've killed Nvidia. Now you're gonna put that one on me.

[Jim Cramer]

Broadcom. Now you're killing.

[Carl Quintanilla]

I'd like to think that I had that kind of power, Jim, but sadly I do not. I do not realize.

[Jim Cramer]

But thank you for not asking me today why it's not up. I really appreciate it.

[David Faber]

You're welcome. A lot of reversals today. Western didge Dell Amat all lagging tech day Strugg day.

[Jim Cramer]

Gotta buy the truck.

[Carl Quintanilla]

Why is Nvidia not up today? Jim?

[Jim Cramer]

Because of Paramount.

[David Faber]

Jim. We'll see you tonight. Mad money, 6pm Eastern time.

[Jim Cramer]

You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street.

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