Squawk Pod – December 2, 2025

Episode: “A $6.5B Gift for Kid Accounts & OpenAI’s ‘Code Red’”
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick
Guests: Brad Gerstner (Altimeter Capital), Max Shapira (Heaven Hill Distillery)

Overview

This episode delves into two major stories:

1. The landmark $6+ billion philanthropic gift by Michael and Susan Dell to create investment accounts for American children – dubbed “Trump accounts” under the Invest America initiative.
2. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s internal “code red” following increased AI competition, especially from Google’s new Gemini model.

The show also covers market volatility (with a spotlight on crypto and big tech), a major lawsuit from Costco over Trump-era tariffs, trends in the bourbon industry with Max Shapira, and wide-ranging discussion on capitalism, philanthropy, and the future of AI and tech.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael & Susan Dell’s $6.2B Gift for Children’s Investment Accounts

[16:16 – 22:45]

• Background: Michael and Susan Dell announce over $6 billion in direct funding for “Trump accounts”: savings and investment vehicles available to 25 million American children — around $250 per child.
• Context: The gift is intended as a massive catalyst for the bipartisan Invest America Act, aiming to give “every eligible U.S. child a savings and investment account that they can grow over time” (16:00).
• Expansion:
  • The initiative originally targeted the high school “class of 2026”, but political and philanthropic momentum expanded eligibility to all Americans under 18.
  • Not just public funding: Companies like Uber, Nvidia, T-Mobile, and philanthropists nationwide are encouraged to contribute, making this a blended public/private model.
• Direct Impact:
  • “100% of this is going directly into the private accounts of these children. Would have been impossible but for the passage of the Invest America Act.” — Brad Gerstner [16:25]
  • Not a traditional charity; these are private, owned accounts, and anyone can contribute to them.
• Bipartisan Support: Unusually, Senators Cory Booker (D) and Ted Cruz (R) released a joint statement urging corporate America’s involvement.
• Financial Literacy:
  • Gerstner stresses the huge platform this creates for hands-on financial education: “They actually need to be able to open their phone and see that they have a little skin in the game… Now everybody’s going to have that.” [18:38]
  • 30 states already require financial literacy education, which will be integrated with these accounts.
• Broader Vision:
  • “We’re not only bottling up hope for every one of these kids… but aligning all these kids with the future of capitalism and the future of, of free markets, which I think is critical as we enter this age of AI.” — Gerstner [20:13]
  • Addresses concerns about the declining popularity of capitalism among youth: “Less than half of people under the age of 40 have a positive view of capitalism… When you have no ownership, it’s a lot easier to want to burn the house down.” [21:29]
• The “Snowball” Effect:
  • The $250 per child is just the start: “Once that snowball goes, we know that parents and others will add to the account. Savers save more.” [22:39]
• Memorable Moment:
  • Becky Quick: “I am amazed that you were able to get this done. So really congratulations and to see this continuing to grow.” [20:45]
  • Gerstner gives credit to CNBC’s platform for raising awareness.

2. OpenAI’s ‘Code Red’ and the Accelerating AI Race

[06:55 – 09:37 & 23:08 – 28:34]

• OpenAI’s Situation:
  • Internal memo surfaces: Sam Altman declares “code red” as Google’s Gemini 3 raises the bar for generative AI, putting pressure on OpenAI and ChatGPT.
  • OpenAI delays some projects (e.g., advertising) to focus on making ChatGPT more capable.
  • “The head of ChatGPT said… OpenAI’s goal is now, in his words, to keep making ChatGPT more capable.” — Becky Quick [07:33]
• Competitive Landscape:
  • Google’s renewed AI push (helped by co-founder Sergey Brin returning to a “founder mode”) demonstrates that tech incumbents can still leap ahead in new domains.
  • Joe Kernen: “The demise of Google search is greatly exaggerated. Why wouldn’t the leading search firm vault into one of the leading AI firms?” [07:43]
  • Becky: “When you have founders who get re-engaged and energized, I think anything can happen.” [08:21]
• AI Model Diversity:
  • Not just a two-horse race: “One [model] might be good at coding… another at video, another at consumer applications.” — Joe [08:57]
  • The technology still has gaps (“It still can’t analyze… You’re still just a glorified search engine.” — Joe, [09:00]), but progress is relentless.
• Industry & Investment:
  • Brad Gerstner: It’s hard to pick a winner; recommends a “basket” approach: “You can own them all—OpenAI and Anthropic, Google and Microsoft.” [24:43]
  • AI-phase transitions create volatility, but long-term transformation is underway: “We’re heading into a very significant productivity boom… Our economy is going to see that productivity tailwind.” — Gerstner [25:50]
  • Past innovation cycles compared: Early Internet, mobile adoption, with AI described as “bigger than the Internet itself” [31:49].

3. Crypto & Market Volatility

[03:14 – 06:12, 28:34 – 31:49]

• Market Moves:
  • Recent sharp sell-off in crypto, with Bitcoin falling about 6% (its worst day since March); MicroStrategy (major institutional BTC holder) cut earnings forecasts and established a $1.4 billion reserve to weather volatility.
  • “If you take something that’s pretty volatile to begin with and then lever it up, what happens with the underlying issues?” — Becky Quick [05:49]
  • Gerstner: Altimeter Capital doesn’t use significant leverage, especially not on Bitcoin, describing MicroStrategy-style strategies as risky and opaque.
• Role of Leverage & Risk:
  • “It works incredibly well on the way up. But I said: I didn’t understand the strategy.” — Brad Gerstner on MicroStrategy [28:50]
  • Bitcoin remains a risk asset, not a true store of value yet; “One is a risk asset and one is not. Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t own Bitcoin… But it is a speculative asset.” [29:39]
  • Potential for further downside if leveraged players unwind.
  • “It is a risk asset. You should treat it appropriately in your portfolio because if microstrategy is forced to deliver… it could get really messy in the short run.” — Brad Gerstner [31:05]

4. Costco vs. Trump Tariffs Lawsuit

[10:25 – 13:22]

• Details: Costco sues the US government, seeking refunds for tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, arguing the Trump Administration’s tariffs were illegal.
• Broader Implications: Other companies (e.g. Revlon) are filing similar suits. Decision pending at the Supreme Court.

5. Tech Supercycle, Market Outlook & The Fed

[23:08 – 38:00, weaving throughout]

• Tech Sector Insights:
  • Nvidia’s growth is “truly extraordinary”—adding ~$200B in revenue in three years; transformational change rippling throughout the economy.
  • AI’s effect on productivity: “You’re seeing these growth rates in these companies… but only adding to their personnel at 1 or 2% because they’re getting more efficient from AI today, dramatically more efficient.” — Gerstner [36:42]
• Market Volatility:
  • Volatility is natural and even healthy during transformational cycles; bubbles less likely at current valuations.
  • Lessons from Internet cycle: “There are going to be companies in this cycle that go bust… but that’s part of the process of creative destruction.” [27:12]
• Monetary Policy:
  • Recently ended “quantitative tightening” could provide a tailwind to markets.
  • Gerstner expects rates to fall in 2026 as inflation ebbs and unemployment ticks upward.
  • Fed’s choice of new Chair (potentially Kevin Hassett) could see a pro-growth, business-friendly policy stance.

6. Heaven Hill & The Bourbon Market

Guest: Max Shapira, Executive Chairman
[40:14 – 48:20]

• Bourbon’s Roots & Kentucky: 95% of bourbon is made in Kentucky; historical and logistical reasons persist [41:09].
• Industry Challenges:
  • Decline in liquor consumption post-pandemic + tariffs (especially in Canada).
  • Shapira: “Kentucky bourbon and all distilled spirits are discretionary expenditure and those discretionary funds are being squeezed, squeezed mightily by almost all consumers. That’s had a big effect.” [42:33]
  • Residual COVID impact: Shift to at-home consumption, reluctance to go out; predicts eventual rebound as social habits return.
• Global Trade:
  • Main export markets stable (no new European or UK tariffs), but Canadian market hit hard by prohibition-like restrictions.
• Targeting New Demographics:
  • Gen Z not yet fully of age; industry will continue to target next generations through modern marketing, social media, and storytelling.
  • “We have so many different ways of speaking to consumers…” [46:26]
  • Lighter moment: Joe jokes about aging drinkers and bourbon hangovers; Max offers to host him in Kentucky for a drink. [48:03]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Brad Gerstner (on the child investment accounts):
  • “This truly is something that we can all get united around… It takes all of us, every family, every company, every philanthropist coming together to solve this problem.” [01:34 & 20:12]
• Becky Quick (on the philanthropic gift):
  • “I am amazed that you were able to get this done. So really congratulations and to see this continuing to grow.” [20:45]
• Joe Kernen (on changing AI landscape):
  • “The demise of Google search is greatly exaggerated. Why wouldn’t the leading search firm vault into one of the leading AI firms?” [07:43]
• Max Shapira (on bourbon consumption):
  • “Covid has a leftover effect. You have consumers today who are used to staying at home… the further we get away from COVID… you’re going to see a re-socialization of people…” [43:40]
• Brad Gerstner (on capitalism & youth):
  • “Less than half of kids, people under the age of 40, have a positive view of capitalism. But as the president has said, when you’re left out and left behind, when you have no skin in the game… it’s a lot easier to want to burn the house down.” [21:29]
• Becky Quick (on crypto leverage):
  • “Maybe volatility is not a surprise, but when you layer on leverage on top of that… does raise a lot of questions.” [28:34]
• Brad Gerstner (on AI & productivity):
  • “We’re heading into a very significant productivity boom… Our economy is going to see that productivity tailwind.” [25:50]

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Time | |-------------------------------------------------|--------| | Markets & Crypto Selloff | 03:00 – 06:12 | | OpenAI’s ‘Code Red’ & AI Competition | 06:55 – 09:37 | | Costco Lawsuit Over Trump Tariffs | 10:25 – 13:22 | | Gerstner & Invest America/Trump Accounts | 16:16 – 22:45 | | Gerstner on Tech & AI Investment Trends | 23:08 – 28:34 | | Gerstner on Crypto and Leverage | 28:34 – 31:49 | | The Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy | 32:51 – 36:02 | | AI’s Economic Impact, UBI, Capitalism | 36:02 – 38:00 | | Max Shapira & Bourbon Industry | 40:14 – 48:20 |

Tone & Style

• Balanced, curious, sometimes cheeky (Joe’s playful asides, Becky’s straightforward analysis)
• Brad Gerstner provides energized, optimistic perspectives on both social reform (child accounts) and markets
• Max Shapira is measured, historical, and pragmatic about challenges in the liquor industry

Conclusion

This episode of Squawk Pod highlighted a unique convergence of philanthropy, innovation, and market change—anchored by a historic gift to America’s children and a rapidly evolving AI landscape. The hosts balance serious analysis of policy and economic forces with candid, lively discussion, leaving listeners with practical insight and a sense of the big shifts shaping the US economy in 2025.