A Blockade Begins & Dirty Soda Heads to the Golden Arches 4/13/26

Summary

Squawk Pod Podcast Summary

Episode: A Blockade Begins & Dirty Soda Heads to the Golden Arches
Date: April 13, 2026
Featured Hosts & Guests: Joe Kernen, Kelly Evans, Dan Murphy, Roger Altman (Evercore), Jens Stoltenberg (Former NATO Secretary General & Norway’s Finance Minister)

---

Episode Overview

This Squawk Pod dives deep into the rapidly escalating US–Iran crisis after failed peace talks, President Trump's controversial announcement of a naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, and the broad economic and geopolitical ripples roiling global markets. The show also mixes in lighter news, like McDonald's beverage shake-up and a recap of Rory McIlroy’s Masters win, and features high-caliber guest analysis on the implications for business, markets, and alliances.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US–Iran Crisis: Blockade Announced

• Failed Peace Talks: Negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend; President Trump responds with a plan to blockade Iranian oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz.

• Presidential Framing: Trump declares (08:27) that the blockade is directed at Iran, not global transit, but warns any attack on US military or commercial vessels will be met with overwhelming force (“blown to hell”).

• Ceasefire Still in Effect: For now, the formal ceasefire holds, but risk of renewed conflict is very real. Markets, especially oil, are jittery.

Key Quote

“The President's framing is interesting here because it suggests this is a blockade of Iran, not of the Strait itself. But...any Iranian forces firing on US troops or commercial shipping...will be, in his words, ‘blown to hell.’”
— Dan Murphy (09:04)

---

2. Market and Oil Reactions

• Oil Volatility: Oil spikes back above $100; traders see little hope of a quick diplomatic solution.
• Equities Reaction: Broader equity markets “shrugging this off,” surprising the hosts given the potential scale of disruption.

Key Quote

“Are you a little surprised that the reaction wasn’t bigger…if you’re blocking the Strait of Hormuz?...It’s just the oil price that makes this one feel a little bit different.”
— Kelly Evans (05:21)

---

3. The Global Chessboard

Gulf States & Europe

• UAE and Saudi Arabia are cooperating with the US in reopening Hormuz but wary of what they may have to give up.
• France and the UK propose a defensive multinational coalition for navigation—but commitments and scope remain unclear.

China’s Stake

• China, Iran’s main oil customer, stands to lose most if the blockade works. Risk of wider entanglement looms, especially with Trump scheduled to visit Beijing soon.

Key Quote

“Beijing...has continued to receive [Iranian shipments] through the Strait since the war began. The US is effectively ending that Tehran-Beijing deal tonight...and risks drawing China in just weeks before Trump’s planned trip to Beijing.”
— Dan Murphy (11:17)

---

4. Iran’s Resilience and Risks of the Blockade

• Iran’s Tenacity: Despite severe losses and economic ruin, Iran’s regime has not conceded.
• Blockades Takes Patience: Evercore’s Roger Altman cautions that blockades can take months to have real effect—and questions if the US has the long-term resolve to endure political and market pain.

Key Quotes

“No matter what your view of the original decision to launch the war, what we’ve seen is remarkable tenacity from Iran...they still have their store of enriched uranium. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and there hasn’t been regime change.”
— Roger Altman (22:39)

“To work, the blockade is going to take some time, some serious time; it could be months. Do we have the patience to do that over months? I hope we do.”
— Roger Altman (23:48)

---

5. International and NATO Response

• No Unified NATO Action: Stoltenberg (now Norway’s Finance Minister, ex-NATO chief) clarifies that NATO as a whole has not entered the conflict, and most support has been diplomatic or economic (e.g., sanctions).
• Europe’s Energy Stakes: The disruption heavily affects Europe, which depends more on Gulf oil than the US.

Key Quotes

“This has not been a NATO operation…If there’s going to be a NATO operation, as it was in Afghanistan, then you need to consult with all the allies...That has not been the case…”
— Jens Stoltenberg (39:39)

“We now see oil and energy prices are surging. It matters for the United States...but also for Norway...inflation is going up, growth is going down. So global economy matters for small and big economies...”
— Jens Stoltenberg (40:35)

---

6. Political & Economic Underpinnings in the US

• Inflation Worries: Hosts note that lingering inflation, fueled by oil prices, comes as tax refunds arrive—a “tax” on consumers if prices don’t drop (08:02).
• Administration Under Pressure: Altman predicts mounting domestic political heat if the blockade drags out and the economic bite intensifies.

---

7. Lighter Segments

Rory McIlroy Wins Masters

• Rory McIlroy becomes only the fourth player to win back-to-back Masters titles, joining Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, and Nick Faldo. Emotional reminiscing about Tiger’s struggles and McIlroy’s journey. (15:00–17:24)

McDonald’s “Dirty Soda” & Energy Drink Overhaul

• McDonald’s to launch new specialty sodas and energy drinks—including the much-buzzed “Dirty Dr. Pepper”—with an aim to lure younger buyers and boost profit margins. (17:58–18:46)

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the US blockade:

"President Trump says the US will begin a blockade of Iranian ports in just a few hours…In the coming hours. The President's framing is interesting—it suggests this is a blockade of Iran, not of the Strait itself. But he is also warning that any Iranian forces firing…will be, in his words, ‘blown to hell.’"
— Dan Murphy (08:27–09:04)

• On market reaction:

"The mild reaction of markets this morning, I think, reflects that expectations that the fighting is over…But will Iran try to attack our naval vessels? Will it resume attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors? We don’t know."
— Roger Altman (22:36–25:00)

• On patience and political will:

"The blockade is really the right idea…I think, but it requires patience on our part. And whether we have that or not, I don’t know…The President always has the option of declaring victory and pulling out."
— Roger Altman (27:09)

• On NATO’s role:

"This has not been a NATO operation…If there’s going to be a NATO operation, as it was in Afghanistan, then you need to consult with all the allies….That has not been the case in this when it comes to the war against Iran."
— Jens Stoltenberg (39:39)

---

Essential Timestamps

• Blockade and Oil Reactions: 01:18–12:41
• Dan Murphy’s Middle East Update: 08:27–14:42
• Market Analysis with Roger Altman: 22:00–32:07
• NATO/European Perspective with Jens Stoltenberg: 34:35–44:07
• McDonald’s “Dirty Soda” News: 17:58–18:56
• Masters Golf Recap: 14:48–17:24

---

Memorable Moments

• "Dirty Dr. Pepper" Jokes:
  • “I guess Starbucks would sell some energy drink. I don't think they're selling dirty Dr. Pepper.”
    — Kelly Evans (18:18)
• Generational Banter:
  • “You're like a Gen Xer at heart or something…Can I claim Gen X?”
    — Evans & Kernen (19:12–19:20)
• Greenland Throwaway:
  • “You’re not here to give us Greenland, I guess, are you?”
    — Joe Kernen (43:51)

---

Summary Table of Key Guests

| Name | Role/Context | Key Contribution | |----------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | Dan Murphy | CNBC Middle East Reporter | On-the-ground update on US–Iran conflict | | Roger Altman | Evercore Founder & Chair | Economic, business, and markets analysis | | Jens Stoltenberg | Ex-NATO, Norway’s FinMin | European/NATO view on alliance, sanctions, energy |

---

Takeaways for Listeners

• The US–Iran standoff is at a dangerous pivot, with economic shockwaves and diplomatic uncertainty swirling.
• Markets are rattled but not panicked—yet.
• The strategic patience required for a blockade may test American willpower more than Iran’s.
• Global alliances are fraying at the edges; NATO is uninvolved, Europe is exposed, and China is a wild card.
• All this, plus energy drinks, golf legends, and generational snark—a typical day on Squawk Pod.

---

Transcript

[Advertisement Voice]

She loves it hot, he loves it cold. The Pod by eight Sleep is a smart mattress cover that fits on your bed and keeps each side at the perfect temperature all night long. By staying comfortably warm or cool, the Pod helps you sleep deeper and wake up feeling more rested. Every morning, you get daily health insights and a sleep fitness score. However you sleep, the pod by Eight Sleep adapts to you. Try [e-mail] when you need to send

the perf perfect rose bouquet. Only one brand can say they've been the floral authority for 50 years, 1-800-FLowers. Why should you trust 1-800-FLowers? They hand select every stem to ensure top quality. And with nationwide delivery, smiles and satisfaction are 100% guaranteed. And right now, when you order a dozen multicolored roses, we'll double it at no extra cost. Don't miss out on this limited time offer. Order today at 1-800-flowers.com sxm. That's 1-800-flowers. Com sxm.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Bring in show music, please.

[Joe Kernan]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, peace talks between the US And Iran end without a deal. President Trump announces a blockade of any and all ships trying to enter the

[Dan Murphy]

Strait of Hormuz so that Iran will

[Roger Altman]

not be able to sell oil.

[Joe Kernan]

And that will be very effective.

We go around the world for the latest in the conflict. CNBC's Dan Murphy in the Middle east,

[Dan Murphy]

the ceasefire is still intact, at least for now on paper. But there is a real risk of renewed conflict here.

[Joe Kernan]

Evercore's Roger Altman on what the business community sees.

[Roger Altman]

They still have their store of nuclear uranium. The Strait of Hormuz is closed and there hasn't been regime change.

[Joe Kernan]

And former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on American allies view of the Iran war.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

This has not been a NATO operation. If there's going to be a NATO operation, as it was in Afghanistan, then you need to consult with all the allies. You need to make decisions in NATO. And that has not been the case in this when it comes to the war against Iran.

[Joe Kernan]

Plus the rest of today's news that got us squawking. Kelly Evans sitting in with our Joe Kernan.

[Kelly Evans]

Are you ready for this?

[Roger Altman]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernan]

Dirty Dr. Pepper it is Monday, April 13th, 2026. Squawk pod begins right now.

[Roger Altman]

Stand by, Joe.

[Joe Kernan]

In three, two, one.

[Roger Altman]

His mic here.

[Joe Kernan]

All right. Good morning. And. Well, usually Becky reads this. You didn't want to do this.

[Kelly Evans]

They didn't ask.

[Joe Kernan]

Kelly's here.

[Kelly Evans]

They just gave it to you.

[Joe Kernan]

They were looking for five days, five Days. Short straw, short stick. You got right.

[Kelly Evans]

If you let me stay through the end.

[Joe Kernan]

If you can make it. If you can get up at three every day. Welcome back. Or welcome. Welcome back. If you hear Friday the Squawk Box here on cnbc. Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square, I'm Joe Kernan along with Kelly Evans. She's wonderful. She gets a lot of time later in the day. Well, well deserved.

[Kelly Evans]

When we start talking about bitcoin, there's going to be a hook and she's

[Joe Kernan]

still not negative on bitcoin, are you?

[Kelly Evans]

I mean it's like the worst performing. One of the worst.

[Joe Kernan]

Learn when you, when you said that at 26,000, when you put all your money in T bills and I told

[Kelly Evans]

you, by the way and you are correct about that. Thank you for letting me sit here because I thought I was going to be over there.

[Joe Kernan]

You might be.

[Kelly Evans]

Is the neck.

[Joe Kernan]

I know it's which I'm going to. I'm going to look on break. I'm going to see how my. Whether this is my good side or my bad side. Becky always sits there.

[Kelly Evans]

Yes, of course. But I know that it'd be easier to look across.

[Joe Kernan]

But they said we have a lot. We have eight guests today to pose a room. There's a lot of conjecture on what all this means. Is a ceasefire still happening? Was Iran, I guess the zeal for the Trump administration to look for an off ramp. I don't know whether that's seen as weakness. But the job's not done. There's a lot of people including the Wall Street Journal saying, look, you can't put a round hole in a, in a square hole. You don't have any guarantee on the nuclear ambitions. The Straits close.

[Kelly Evans]

Oh, meaning to come to some sort

[Joe Kernan]

of after you've come this far and it's. No one wants a forever war. No one wants casualties. No one has a stomach for any of this. But it's even worse once you start a few weeks.

[Kelly Evans]

Now we have a real problem now we have a real. That's the irony. We're a six weeks in now.

[Joe Kernan]

We've had a 47 year problem.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, for sure. For sure. And those, you know, you hope all that's been degraded and everything.

[Joe Kernan]

But it's just October 7th and then the 40,000 or 30,000 people that were.

[Roger Altman]

Yeah. Fair.

[Joe Kernan]

That's why I don't understand the Pope. It's like. I don't know. But anyway, pretty good week last week. But it was, you know, based on hopes for the ceasefire continuing for some kind of deal. The Journal also points out, look, Iran thought, All right, this J.D. vance Vice President didn't want to do this in the first place. That's what all the conjecture is. So he wants out. Maybe we can play him a little bit. Maybe we can play him. So if they can't get the dovish guy to agree and he walks out, then there's no longer the idea that there's a split in the resolve of the administration to go forward.

[Kelly Evans]

That seems true. And yet you look at the price action this morning and to me, the real problem is the oil price. Everything else, I think, in equities, I think are kind of shrugging this off. I mean, didn't you think. Are you a little surprised that the reaction wasn't bigger to how long is you blocking on the Strait of hormones? And we're down like two thirds of a percent.

[Joe Kernan]

Ukraine war going on after. We thought it was going to.

[Kelly Evans]

Exactly. It's just the oil price that makes this one feel a little bit different.

[Joe Kernan]

It does, but we can. It's expensive, but we don't have the supply, the actual supply issues that they.

[Kelly Evans]

And it's not even that expensive. I mean, again, we are at $5 not long ago. We're at 4 now. I just think people are. Are starting to realize it's not going back down quickly, not at this rate

[Joe Kernan]

when we were begging Iran or we still are to let ships go through the strait. Whose ships were going through and who is it benefiting?

[Kelly Evans]

Was it China?

[Joe Kernan]

Their ships? Their. Their oil money was still coming in if they don't to Iran?

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, yeah.

[Joe Kernan]

It was all. So it was sort of counterproductive for us to want their ships to get through.

[Kelly Evans]

So those are the options. You either let their ships go through which benefits them, or you don't let them through and then the oil price goes up. Even maybe the point now is that.

[Joe Kernan]

And now you see people with 120 in 20.

[Kelly Evans]

20 to 129, I think.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah, yeah.

[Kelly Evans]

Went up in 12 days. 148 to fall.

[Joe Kernan]

Right. Hopefully it doesn't last long time. We had a big argument on Friday about inflation. Core. Core to six.

[Kelly Evans]

On what the PC?

[Joe Kernan]

Just core cpi. So headline three three. But core is two six. So this, you know, the reason they back out food and energy is because it's volatile. And a lot of people pointing out you can't use multiplication. You got to use addition when you're adding up these numbers. So for someone to say inflation tripled.

[Kelly Evans]

Right.

[Joe Kernan]

Look, the Monthly number.

[Kelly Evans]

I don't even think this is necessarily like the 20, 22 one. Back then, as you know, we had all the stimulus. So when you had these high oil prices, they were just, people were paying them right now, I don't know if they have the same wherewithal. I think that will make it, you

[Joe Kernan]

think about, you know, the inflation. Everybody's, you know, giving an excuse to the Biden administration for inflation, saying the whole world had it with supply constraints.

[Kelly Evans]

Look, because everyone was stimulating as well.

[Joe Kernan]

There's supply and demand. Okay, we know that there were supply constraints. But if you dump fuel on the fire with what was the inflation reduction? The tipsack, the, you know, and enabled by 5 trillion, enabled by the Fed $5 trillion with some lingering supply constraints. It would not have happened if they didn't, if they didn't do that.

[Kelly Evans]

If you don't have, if people can't pay for it, at the end of the day it's a tax. And that's why I wonder this time around, what's ironic is it's landing in tax refund moment when the consumer is doing pretty good, but if they can't pay for it, it's a tax.

[Joe Kernan]

You know how I judge how things are going by what all over this guy's face. He cannot, he cannot hide how he feels about what's going on. So let's see how Murphy is feeling this morning. We can tell right away when we go to him.

[Kelly Evans]

President Trump says the US will begin a blockade of Iranian ports in just a few hours. 10:00am Eastern time is what the president is saying four hours from now. CNBC's Dan Murphy joins us with more from Abu Dhabi. Dan, was that a slight optimist?

[Joe Kernan]

No, he looks serious and like he's got things to say, but I'm feeling a little disconsolate. But I'm not sure what the answer is at this point, Dan, Nobody knows, right?

[Dan Murphy]

Hey, Joe. Hey, Kelly. I look first up to Kelly's point, oil prices back to triple digits this morning. So traders are discounting the possibility of a quick diplomatic off ramp now as the US Navy begins its blockade in the coming hours. And the President's framing is interesting here because it suggests this is a blockade of Iran, not of the Strait itself. But he is also warning that any Iranian forces firing on US troops or commercial shipping during the blockade will be, in his words, blown to hell. So look, whether the United States starts physically striking boats and seizing tankers in a Venezuela style operation remains to be seen. And Joe, as you mentioned, the Wall Street Journal reports today that President Trump is also now weighing resuming limited military strikes on Iran if the blockade alone fails to break the stalemate after the vice president's peace talks ended without a deal at the weekend. And interestingly, as the clock ticks down as well, Iran is also hitting back. In a statement from its armed forces to state media, Tehran said that if the security of Iran's own ports are threatened, that no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe. Of course, Iran has said it wants to permanently control the Strait of Hormuz with transit and tolls on Iran's terms. The United States has made it clear in the last few hours that that is not happening. So the ceasefire is still in effect. On paper, I think whether it lasts now remains really unclear. Kelly?

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, no, Dan, I guess one of the big retaliation points everyone is watching for is whether Iran does anything against the Gulf region at this point. And it seems like things are pretty quiet on that front, which is, I think, helping the sense of calm even amidst the upward move in the oil price.

[Dan Murphy]

You're exactly right. And the Gulf reaction has been interesting here as well because the Gulf states, including the uae, have signaled their willingness to join an American led coalition to reopen Hormuz. But it's unclear what the uae, for example, is willing to give up to make that happen. They actually tried to do this through the UN but it was shut down by Russia and China. As for the other Gulf states, Saudi Arabia is interesting too. It's been prioritizing its east west pipeline, which is back up and running now, to avoid the water entirely. And then taking a step further here, we've also just had reaction from the Europeans, which is important to flag as well. President Emmanuel Macron saying France and the UK now plan to organize a conference, they're calling it, for countries prepared to contribute to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation. They say this is going to be strictly defensive and it's going to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit. But exactly who will come to support the United States in this effort remains unclear at this point as well. And then it was raised earlier. But there's also an interesting China dimension here, too, and this is really important. Beijing, as you know, is Iran's largest oil buyer. It has continued to receive shipments through the Strait since the war began. The US Is effectively ending that Tehran Beijing deal tonight and a blanket blockade on Iranian crude directly threats that supply and risks drawing China in just weeks before Trump's planned trip to Beijing. So this is going to be really interesting to watch. You really do get the sense that the Gulf states are, are back on edge now. In fact, anyone trading oil, anyone following this conflict is now back on edge to see exactly what happens at 6pm local time when the President's blockade begins. As I mentioned, the cease fire is still intact, at least for now on paper. But there is a real risk of renewed conflict here if this does.

[Joe Kernan]

China was, China was quick to say, we're not supplying any weapons. And at that day that's fake news or whatever. So that made me think, I mean, if they were really, I don't know if they thought, look, it's our right to do whatever we want in terms of, you know, our allies. And they do get. I don't know whether Iran's an ally de facto it probably is, but they were quick to say, no, no, no, we're not. So, you know, I'm not sure Iran can count on China at this point. The other thing I was saying, okay, so we have terrible memories of Iraq, terrible memories maybe of Afghanistan. So we're, I'm not going to say we're soft, but we don't have much stomach for this. Iran, on the other hand, now their economy is already just absolutely in the toilet. This is going to make it worse. But the regime doesn't care about its people. They have the ability, you know, there's not going to be any elections. They don't have midterms coming up. So, I mean, how much pain can they inflict on their own people? I guess as much as they want. And when does that reach a breaking point? If this blockade continues for a month.

[Dan Murphy]

Yeah. Well, this is a really interesting point that you raise as well, Joe, because China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude and this is a major economic and financial lifeline for the regime. There was actually some analysis done that suggested that if we saw the Chinese cutting off their intent to buy Iranian crude or even the Iranians stopping their ability to export their own oil through Hormuz, then this could result in a 250 million US dollar a day impact for the Iranians. So they will be hurt here if they're unable to export their own crude to top buyers like China. How long they could potentially withstand that, I think is a really important point to make here as well. And of course, that's something that the US President is also thinking of.

[Kelly Evans]

All right, Dan, thank you. We'll leave it there for now. Appreciate it. This morning, Dan Murphy,

[Joe Kernan]

Ed, Rory McElroy repeating as masters champion he tapped in for a bogey on 18th, but he had two two stroke lead to finish at 12 under par, beat Scottie Scheffler by one stroke. His main competitor late in the day at Augusta national was Justin Rose who was just on a roll till really number 11, the beginning of amen quarter. He tied, finished in a tie for third at 10 under. McElroy is the fourth player to win back to back Masters. He joins Tiger Woods, Nick Fado and Jack Nicklaus in that group. He now has six total major wins in his career. Tied with Fado, Lee Trevino, Phil Mickelson. And he said I can't. I would love to give myself the green jacket because you know the, the previous owner always, always does us. So the chairman had to, had to give him his green jacket.

[Kelly Evans]

He could have kind of taken it off one arm and put it on the other arm or something like that.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah, he was 12 under after the second round, after Friday's round, after Friday's round and he, but he won at 12 under. Oh, so even par Saturday and Sunday was good enough. He had a six stroke lead on Friday and no one was able to open. The one guy who almost did was Scotty Scheffler. The thing about Augusta, you think about it, how does it do it year after year after year? Rory is the best in the world probably right now. Scottie Scheffler is so close and the cream rises to where those two guys one stroke separated them. After all was said and done. Out of 280 str, how many? 4 times 72. And it's just amazing that, that it's something mystical about Augusta. It's almost, you know, for golf and what it means to people and the

[Kelly Evans]

way it works and the history, I mean it's the history in McElroy. His. He knew from a young, young age that he had this. It was crazy. And everything that his family went through and that he went through.

[Joe Kernan]

Deb was working the bar, working the pro shop.

[Kelly Evans]

I don't want to bring it up but you know, I do think about everything going on with Tiger woods and you know, we remember such talent, what a phenom. And it's so sad to watch him struggle the way that he's struggling right now. And it's just the perspective around. Yes, it's. I hope that I'm so thrilled for Rory that for his whole life, everything he's worked for, that it's worked out this way sometimes there's still the rest of the story, you know, of his life to Be told. And I just think about that when I watch it. Now that, you know, he's. I mean, I just. I can't help but think about Tiger woods and I just wish him. I wish all the best for him.

[Joe Kernan]

Right.

[Kelly Evans]

Get through things. Right.

[Joe Kernan]

Tiger's in a lot of pain. I mean, physical pain. And I don't know. I don't know how you. That doesn't excuse everything. And some of this pain might be from. From golf and from the other crash where he.

[Kelly Evans]

Of course.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah. Right. So he drives too fast. I'm convinced he definitely drives too fast. But you definitely can't drive when you're. When you're unpaid medicine. Someone else. It's not just about you. Someone else could. Got to get a driver. Not a golf club. A driver. Get a driver. Get a driver to drive you around your Tiger woods.

[Kelly Evans]

Maybe a cart. McDonald's is reportedly looking to overhaul its beverage menu to include energy drinks. And that's not all. The Wall Street Journal says the menu refresh is coming later this year and will include a Red Bull dragonberry Energizer. Also reportedly on the menu are specialty sodas, like a. Are you ready for this?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Yeah.

[Kelly Evans]

Dirty Dr. Pepper. Because nobody drinks soda anymore. Maybe this will do it. The report notes that McDonald's plans to sell the drinks at prices below offerings from competitors like Starbucks. I guess Starbucks would sell some energy drink. I don't think they're selling dirty Dr. Pepper.

[Joe Kernan]

What is. I don't even know what that is. What is that?

[Kelly Evans]

I don't know either.

[Joe Kernan]

I'm just.

[Kelly Evans]

Probably just some sort of mix, you know, they expect the drink to generate higher profit margins. And that's like. Remember all these, you know, restaurants and chains used to make all their profit margin on soda. No one buys it anymore.

[Joe Kernan]

No. At least not. Not sugary anyway.

[Kelly Evans]

I've got like 4 tablespoons of sugar in this, but that's fine.

[Joe Kernan]

And you don't know. Is it better to take your chances with sugar or one of the sweeteners, which.

[Kelly Evans]

No, I don't think those sweeteners are so good. The fake ones.

[Joe Kernan]

I don't know.

[Kelly Evans]

Do you do with sweeteners or.

[Joe Kernan]

No, I do in coffee.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, but like real sugar or equal.

[Joe Kernan]

Equal.

[Kelly Evans]

That's so 1980s. You're like a Gen Xer at heart or something. Or Gen X.

[Joe Kernan]

Can I do that? Can I claim Gen X?

[Kelly Evans]

I think so.

[Joe Kernan]

Thought about that. Unfortunately, there's records everywhere for Earth days and things like people can find out if you try to lie, but it's

[Kelly Evans]

what you how you.

[Joe Kernan]

I know, I know. I do lots of push ups. My hair is still real.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

He's will be next.

[Joe Kernan]

Coming up on Squawk Pod, what does Wall street think of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? Veteran investor Roger Altman, co founder of Evercore on the global news impacting US Markets.

[Roger Altman]

The mild reaction of markets this morning I think reflects that expectations that the fighting is over.

[Joe Kernan]

We'll be right back.

[Avalara Advertisement Voice]

What does running your business feel like with Avalara, the AgentIQ AI platform for global tax and compliance? You don't hover over the submit button. You don't ask for a second opinion. You don't wake up thinking about a filing because Avalara's AgentIQ AI handles it. Calculating, filing, validating with the accuracy and audit defensibility, your team can stand behind Avalara, Agentic AI tax and compliance with confidence.

[Square Advertisement Voice]

Support for today's episode comes from Square. If you've ever tapped a pay and thought, whoa, that was fast, it was probably Square. Square is the platform behind the scenes of so many businesses you already love. Whether someone's selling smoothies, cutting hair, fixing bikes or running a boutique, Square gives them one connected system to take payments, manage inventory, run payroll, send invoices and track it all from one place. This isn't just a point of sale. Square includes hardware that works in person and on the go, software for managing staff, marketing and customer insights, and banking tools like Square checking to get paid instantly. Square is smart, transparent and built for the way people actually run their businesses. No contracts, no hidden fees. Right now, you can get up to $200 off Square Hardware at square.com go squawk. That's sq U-A-R-E.com go squawk. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today.

[Advertisement Voice]

When I need to impress someone with a gift, I go straight to 1-800-FLOWERS. There's a reason they've spent 50 years as the floral authority. Every stem is hand selected by a vetted florist and with same day delivery nationwide, 100% satisfaction guaranteed. That's why millions go to 1-800-Flowers to celebrate life's most important moments. Order now for up to 40% off. Don't miss out on this limited time offer. Act now and save up to 40% at 1-800-flowers.com sxm. That's 1-800-flowers. Com sxm.

[Joe Kernan]

This is Squawk Pod from CNBC today with Joe Kernan and Kelly Evans.

[Kelly Evans]

Welcome back. As we mentioned, futures are somewhat muted this morning in Response to this blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the poor president says is going into effect at 10am The Dow is down about 194 for the implied open right now. Roger Altman is here. He's the founder and senior chairman of Evercore. It's great to have you here this morning.

[Roger Altman]

Thanks for having me.

[Kelly Evans]

So many, I mean, just top level thoughts here. The seriousness of the blockade. Our last strategist was talking about, are we going to have men on ships trying to, you know, stop the oil from going to China? I don't know. You've obviously seen a number of different conflicts.

[Roger Altman]

Well, I have four thoughts on Iran.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah.

[Roger Altman]

First of all, no matter what your view of the original decision to launch the war, what we've seen is remarkable tenacity from Iran because despite being pulverized and despite having its leadership decapitated, it has not folded and therefore the US has not achieved the most important strategic goals that President Trump talked about. Nuclear. You know, they still have their store of nuclear, of enriched uranium. The Strait of Hormuz is closed and there hasn't been regime change. So that's point one two. It was never realistic to expect a peace agreement in 24 hours. The JCPOA, the Obama agreement, you can think of it what you will, but it took 18 months. Vietnam, it took five years. Third, the decision that the president is making on the blockade, it could work, but it's risky and it's going to require, this is the key point, a lot of patience. Why do I say that? Because the idea that the blockade is coming into effect this morning and Iran is going to fold promptly because it's being deprived of its oil revenue and its allies are being deprived of their oil supplies, I just don't think is correct.

[Joe Kernan]

Correct.

[Roger Altman]

That's not because of the tenacity they've shown so far and the approach they took to the peace talks and so forth. So to work the blockade is going to take some time, some serious time, and it could be months. And do we have the patience to do that over months? I hope we do. It's also risky because, of course, the mild reaction of markets this morning I think reflects that expectation that the fighting is over. But will Iran try to one way or the other attack our naval vessels that are enforcing the blockade? Will it resume attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors? We don't know that. Is the fighting really over? We don't know that. So if you say to me President Trump is committed to enforce this blockade however long it takes, then I think it could work and after all it's the correct premise because essentially saying it's either open for all or it's closed to all. And the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway. Iran has no right to control it or impose stalls but it's going to take patience. Final point. I think it would be smart if the President could get as many other nations to support the blockade in one form or another because I think that would put more pressure on Iran, especially

[Kelly Evans]

in the UK has already said it.

[Roger Altman]

I know, especially China because China is the nation which reportedly weighed in late but hard on Iran to agree the peace, the cease fire and China has tremendous impact influence on Iran. Now it may not be that China joins some coalition, but on its own track. If we could get China to tell Iran to back off, that would be really helpful. So we don't want to help or

[Joe Kernan]

you're talking European allies.

[Roger Altman]

Well, I think the natural initial supporters are the, are the British Gulf NATO

[Joe Kernan]

neighbors that have been attacked as well.

[Roger Altman]

And but if you could get any of the NATO allies, the broader the coalition, the more effective it is because it puts more pressure on Iran, especially if China would play a role.

[Joe Kernan]

But if you don't get France, I don't know what that means. You never get, you never get France. Right. Basically it's like that's just the key point for the course.

[Roger Altman]

The key point though is we should. It's going to take a while.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah.

[Roger Altman]

And we hope that the administration has.

[Joe Kernan]

No, Roger, what you describe as hideous because the patient in the reason it's hideous is because they have an ability to absorb so much pain because they don't care if, if the people in Iran are absorbing pain. You look at how the dire straits the economy is in already in Iran and they're still willing to wait it out. That regime doesn't have midterms coming up right. In November where we do. I'm not saying we're a soft country, but we don't have a stomach for a protracted struggle probably or that's what those people do for a living.

[Roger Altman]

That's right over there.

[Joe Kernan]

So it sets up a not a great situation for us, Roger, because the resolve might not be there that we need. That might be the right, the right thing to do. And you acknowledge that which not, not everyone necessarily does that.

[Roger Altman]

Well, Iran's pattern so far has been fierce and tenacious.

[Joe Kernan]

I know. And half of them are dead, which is just unbelievable of the leadership.

[Roger Altman]

The blockade is really the right idea, I think but it requires patience on our Part. And whether we have that or not, I don't know. Now, the President always has the option of declaring victory and pulling out. And of course he can do that. But one other thing I worry about is there's an expectation in the markets and there's an expectation on the part of macroeconomists and forecasters that this war is going to be short. The fighting is over, oil prices will begin to move back down and maybe by year end they'll be in the 70 to 80 range on WTI, for example. And if this blockade takes months to work, that forecast is not going to be true. And there'll be impacts on the US Economy and the consumer and there'll be impacts, obviously our financial market.

[Kelly Evans]

It's this, it's this kind of face off, because I was just going to look at what the national average is this morning. The last that we saw it was. All right, let's see here, 412 today got up to about 417 last week. And based on what you're saying, the only hope the administration can have is that the blockade is, so this is, to Joe's point, so much more severe on Iran that they come to the table quickly. They basically say, we'll agree to these sticking points before consumers in the US Economy feel the impact of this. Because if you're right, that we need to be in this for the long run, however long it may take for them to where does the oil, gasoline price go?

[Roger Altman]

I think the odds that Iran comes to the table quickly are really low unless China somehow forces its hand. And I'm not sure what the prospects of that are, but I think you have to assume, like a lot of things in life, hope for the best and assume for the worst. And the, the chances that Iran's coming to the table and making concessions, particularly on nuclear enrichment, I think are low over the short term. Over the short term.

[Kelly Evans]

We do have this meeting with Trump and Xi coming up. And could that be fortuitous in a sense? I don't know if there's any personal

[Roger Altman]

leverage the president could be because China needs a lot of things from the United States and we need a lot of things from them. And so there's a lot to bargain over, whether it's their purchases of aircraft and soybeans, their desire for advanced semiconductors, a whole series of things on that negotiating table. But one thing we would like from them right now is, and they did it once on the cease fire, is to weigh in heavily with Iran because they are Iran's biggest customer. Biggest customer. And they probably have more influence on Iran than any other nation on earth, including us, of course, Roger.

[Joe Kernan]

There's immense pressure from Democrats, the left, I think, from the. What is it? What column is the press? I don't know. It's one of those columns, fifth column. It's always like this in any struggle, obviously any war. You never. I mean, I was around for the Vietnam War. I remember exactly what happens. Is it worse this time, do you think, and do you think Trump, President Trump, has the resolve to not let that affect him? He cares. He cares what the stock market does. He cares where his polls are. There's not support. And I think a lot of it, some of it is just anything Trump does. Certain people are going to hate and hope that he fails at whatever he's doing, but it's always difficult.

[Roger Altman]

Well, I'm not in that camp because I think the blockchain.

[Joe Kernan]

Blockchain is the right idea, what you say. I'm not saying you are, because you're

[Roger Altman]

different in a lot of what. What I worry about, though, is if the. If this recent perception that the war would be short and oil prices would begin to come down and everything would be, in a certain sense, fine. That way, if that proves wrong, because this blockade takes a lot of time. And by the way, that proves also to weigh on markets, will President Trump have the patience to hang in there? I hope he does. And I think it's in his interest to do that because that's the only way you're going to get real change on Iran and rationalize, by the way, the original decision to go in in the first place. But we'll see.

[Joe Kernan]

He's going to be hammered. Hammered by.

[Roger Altman]

We'll see.

[Joe Kernan]

New York Times, Washington Post.

[Roger Altman]

Well, I see a lot of stuff on the Internet supporting the idea of the blockade. Yeah, I mean, I don't think that's seen by people that really know what they're talking about as a bad idea, including the fact that, as I understand it now, this is. I'm not an expert here. I understand we can place our vessels in terms of their locations sufficiently away from the range of Iranian weapons that the Iranian ability to attack those vessels will be limited. Not zero, but limited. So maybe that means hostilities won't resume. I don't know. But I think the blockade is the right idea. It's just going to require a lot of patience.

[Joe Kernan]

Thank you.

[Kelly Evans]

It's fascinating.

[Roger Altman]

Thanks for having me, guys.

[Joe Kernan]

Dr. Oz did your transplant 25 years ago.

[Roger Altman]

24 plus years ago.

[Joe Kernan]

I had to tell Kelly that he thought he was a TV snake oil salesman.

[Kelly Evans]

I did not think he was a snake, but I thought it'd be like if he said Oprah did his heart transplant.

[Roger Altman]

Like Oprah.

[Joe Kernan]

Still to come on Squawkpot, a conversation with former Secretary General of Naito, Jens Stoltenberg, currently Norway's Minister of Finance. He's weighing in on the global impact of the war in Iran.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

I think we all have skins in the in the game. Meaning that for instance, we now see that oil and energy prices are are surging. It matters for the United States, a big oil producer, but also for Norway. We are a net producer, a huge net producer of oil and gas. But of course it matters for our economy because inflation is going up, growth is going down.

[Joe Kernan]

We're back after this.

[Avalara Advertisement Voice]

What is running your business feel like with Avalara, the Agentic AI platform for global tax and compliance? You don't hover over this submit button. You don't ask for a second opinion. You don't wake up thinking about a filing because Avalara's AgentIQ AI handles it. Calculating, filing, validating with the accuracy and audit defensibility. Your team can stand Behind Avalara, AgentIQ AI tax and compliance with confidence. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

[Advertisement Voice]

She loves it hot, he loves it cool. The Pod by eight Sleep is a smart mattress cover that fits on your bed and keeps each side at the perfect temperature all night long. By staying comfortably warm or cool, the Pod helps you sleep deeper and wake up feeling more rested. Every morning. You get daily health insights and a sleep fitness score. However you sleep, the pod by Eight Sleep adapts to you. Try [e-mail]

[Joe Kernan]

this is Squawk Pod Standby

Joe his mic Q Watching Squawk box on cnbc. I'm Joe Kernan along with Kelly Evans. Becky and Andrew are off today. The US And Iran walking away from talks in Pakistan with no deal. President Trump saying a US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will start today. We're joined by now by former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. He was in that position for 10 years. He is now Norway's Finance Minister that's why you're here for, for pension issues. But we'd like to talk to you about all the experience you had, I think for 10 years, 2014 to 2024 with as secretary general of NATO. But it's good to see you. Thanks for joining us.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Thanks so much for having me.

[Joe Kernan]

Do you in any way agree with Secretary General Ruta about things, the way things are going? We had a guest on, on Friday. I think he's running for president probably at some point. He said, I said, well, Secretary General Ruda thinks that this could be a good long term thing for the Middle east and for the world. He goes, oh, he just likes kissing Trump's ass. That's basically what I was told.

[Dan Murphy]

America is weaker because the president launched.

[Joe Kernan]

Well, that's, that's your opinion. That's not.

[Dan Murphy]

No, no, but it's clear and I'll tell you why.

[Joe Kernan]

Because when Trump, secretary of NATO say the world is a safer place, he just said that yesterday.

[Dan Murphy]

He needs job is to butter up the president.

[Joe Kernan]

Is that how you see it?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

But first of all, Margaret and I, we are close friends. We have worked together for many years when I was Prime Minister and then the 10 years when I was Secretary General, he was Prime Minister of the Netherlands. And I think it's not very good, as I say, habit to comment too much on what your successor is doing. But would you be handling it differently? But he has a difficult task. His task is to keep more than 30 countries, 32 NATO allies on both sides of the Atlantic together. When there are obvious disagreements and, and that's not easy. That was also my task. And I think he really tries to do that because he sees that if NATO is weakened, then we are all more vulnerable, not only Europe, but also United States, because a strong NATO is good for the United States. Makes the United States, it seems like

[Joe Kernan]

he's putting all of his, he skewed to the one country, the most, obviously the most important country in NATO. But if you're talking to the United States, as conciliatory as Mark is, don't the other 31 feel like they're, he may be not, not representing their interest to the same extent?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

It's not for me to speak on behalf of all the 31 others and neither on behalf of the United States. But what I can say is that I think that Margaret's main message is that the main criticism from the United States, from President Obama, from President Biden and now from President Trump is that European allies have not started with President Trump. Yeah, no, Actually it was President Obama who was president in 2014 when we made a decision to increase defense spending by European allies and Canada. And at that time to spend 2% was an ambitious, ambitious target. And then it has over the years really increased and now Europeans are really investing more and many European allies are actually investing more in defence than the United States as share of gdp. And this is a fundamental change which I think helps NATO and demonstrates the United States also benefits from NATO has

[Joe Kernan]

the notion that the Middle east is not their purview for some reason. You agree with that?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Yeah, I agree with that in the way that NATO is first and foremost a defensive alliance is to protect NATO territory. Then different NATO allies have over these close to eight years been involved in different conflicts and NATO has normally not been part of that. Then there are a couple of exceptions from that rule. And that's for instance Afghanistan where all NATO allies went in together with the United States after the attack on the United States. And more than a thousand European soldiers have lost their lives in a war that actually was about protecting us. So that's one example of how NATO actually matters. Also for your people protecting the US

[Joe Kernan]

you're talking about September 11th or what are you talking about protecting us?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

No, I'm talking about after 9 11.

[Joe Kernan]

Right. But it wasn't, I guess some of the. It wasn't the country of Afghanistan itself.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

No. But I mean it's got.

[Joe Kernan]

We got a lot of criticism for going into Iraq when it was a Laden.

[Roger Altman]

Yeah.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

And NATO allies were not part. So normally NATO is not part of operations.

[Joe Kernan]

So you agree that with what's happening now, we're not. That the United States is not getting much help from its NATO allies. And you think that's the right.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Well, I think it varies. Some NATO allies have provided basing logistics and for instance Germany, many other allies have made their. Of course.

[Joe Kernan]

But you know, who hasn't though?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Yeah, I know that also some allies have not. But this has not been a NATO operation. If there's going to be a NAT operation as it was in Afghanistan, then you need to consult with all the allies. You need to make decisions in NATO. And that has not been the case in this. In when it comes to the war against Iran.

[Joe Kernan]

It just seems like we should be less concerned with what happens in the Middle East. We're much further away. We've got, we've got less interest than NATO. You look at the amount of energy that's dependent on what comes through the strait for Europe versus the United States. I guess NATO would have to decide it was just a. Not the right move for President Trump to enter into this.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

At least it was not a NATO decision because. Partly was because the United States never tried to make it a NATO decision.

[Joe Kernan]

But it could be more consequential for NATO countries than for the. You've got more skin in the game than. Than a lot of other places.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Well, I think we all have skins in the. In the game. Meaning that, for instance, we now see that oil and energy prices are, Are surging. It matters for the United States, a big oil producer, but also for Norway. We are a net producer, a huge net producer of oil and gas. But of course it matters for our economy because inflation is going up, growth is going down. So global economy matters for small and big economists, United States and Norway, regardless of whether we are producing oil or not. So it matters for all. And of course, it matters that we all are extremely concerned about Iran's ambitions to get the nuclear weapon.

[Joe Kernan]

Think about that. Yeah. And everything, you know, 40,000 dead Iranians that, you know, just trying to, you know, exercise their right. They don't have a right obviously, to free speech. But there's a long list. Do you think anything changes in terms of NATO's viewpoint or.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Well, NATO's viewpoint has been and is clear as we, we, first of all, we condemn what the regime in Iran has done against their population for decades.

[Joe Kernan]

Just words.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Well, we also implemented heavy sanctions against Iran and NATO allies supported the negotiations to find the Iran nuclear deal that put actually some limitations on Iran's nuclear program. And, and of course, we are very much in favor of also now upholding the ceasefire, if that's possible, and also to open the Strait of Hormuz.

[Kelly Evans]

Are they. Are your. Who is going to help? The UK has already said that it's not necessarily going to help with this blockade. Should other countries help the U.S. but

[Jens Stoltenberg]

I think we need to distinguish. I think that many European allies, many European countries, and I can at least speak on behalf of Norway. We want freedom of navigation. We don't want the homeless trade closed. We want it open for global economy, for, for inflation, for, for, for energy prices to not make that they increase further. Then Keir Starmer, the prime minister of Nat Gem, he said clearly that we actually convened close to 40 nations a few days ago to look into how can we help to keep that strait open to, to ensure safe waterways. Now, this is a new.

[Kelly Evans]

What was the answer? What are they going to.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

They were all. They came and they were willing to sit down and discuss. How can we do that. But that's a different thing than being directly involved in the war against Iran.

[Kelly Evans]

If the US and if those countries say we want the strait open, what are they going to do?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Well, that was exactly what they were discussing. Partly, there are diplomatic means. The normality has been that the strait has been open regardless of all the conflicts and all the wars in the Middle East. The strait has been open almost all the time. Second, there are always sanctions. That has been an issue. And thirdly, there are, of course, naval capabilities that can be used to ensure that the strait is open. But that doesn't mean to be directly involved in a war with Iran.

[Joe Kernan]

You're not here to give us Greenland, I guess, are you? Is that probably not?

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Not at all.

[Joe Kernan]

Not at this point.

[Jens Stoltenberg]

Greenland. Greenland.

[Joe Kernan]

We'll talk. We'll talk. Yeah. I'm kidding. We can't get into it. That was just a throwaway comment just to make you laugh.

[Roger Altman]

You're laughing now.

[Joe Kernan]

Thank you.

That is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for starting your week with us. Squawk Fox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Thanks to Kelly Evans, who will be sitting in all this week. Tune in to our TV show weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. Or get the very best right into your ears when you follow Squawkpod. Wherever you get your podcasts and you can listen anytime. Have a great Monday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

We are clear. Thanks, guys.

[Roger Altman]

It's tax season, and at Lifelock, we know you're tired of numbers, but here's a big one you need to hear. Billions. That's the amount of money in refunds the IRS has flagged for possible identity fraud.

[Joe Kernan]

Now here's another big number.

[Roger Altman]

100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every single second. If your identity is stolen, we'll fix it.

[Joe Kernan]

Guaranteed. One last big number.

[Roger Altman]

Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com specialoffer for the threats you can't control. Terms apply.