A Deadline to Reopen Hormuz 4/7/26

Summary

Squawk Pod Episode Summary

Episode Title: A Deadline to Reopen Hormuz 4/7/26
Air Date: April 7, 2026
Podcast: Squawk Pod (CNBC)
Hosts: Becky Quick, Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Special Guests: Robert Kindler (Paul Weiss), Jared Isaacman (NASA Administrator), Dan Murphy (CNBC, Abu Dhabi)

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Overview

This episode centers on two urgent global stories:

1. Critical US-Iran Tensions: President Trump has set an ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face military action, with global markets and geopolitics hanging in the balance.
2. Historic NASA Milestone: Artemis 2 astronauts complete a record-breaking mission, traveling further from Earth than any prior human crew, with NASA’s future space plans revealed.

Additionally, the episode features deep dives into M&A trends, regulatory shifts, and the IPO landscape with expert Robert Kindler, including recent large tech deals and the effect of new index rules on landmark IPOs like SpaceX.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US-Iran Showdown Over the Strait of Hormuz

(Segment start: 01:05)

• President Trump’s Ultimatum:
  Trump warns of massive US military strikes on Iranian infrastructure if Hormuz remains closed past an 8pm deadline.

  • ["Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again." — President Trump, (01:16, quoted by CNBC)]

• Investor and Market Reactions:

  • Oil prices (~$110/barrel) reflect war premium rather than faith in diplomacy.
  • Equity markets show more calm, indicating hope for de-escalation or belief that impacts could be limited.
    • “It seems as if the oil market is calling for escalation, not a diplomatic off ramp, but on the equity trade ... it seems as if you’re a lot less concerned.” — Dan Murphy, (06:23)

• Diplomatic Breakdown:

  • A 45-day US-proposed ceasefire was rejected by Iran; Iran countered with demands for a permanent resolution and sanctions relief.
  • Other Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia) brace for repercussions, intercepting drones and missiles.
  • "Iran rejected [the US proposal], sending back a counter that asked for a permanent end to the war and sanctions relief. Trump called it a significant step, but also said it wasn’t good enough." — Dan Murphy, (03:38)

• Realities of the Shipping Blockade:

  • Reports suggest “functional checkpoint” rather than total closure.
  • Ships, many Iranian, are moving through Hormuz—often to China—by spoofing GPS and paying bribes; traffic could be up to 15 ships/day.
  • “Traffic [is] picking up recently to about 15 ships per day. … Many vessels turning off their transponders so they’re invisible on the official tracking system.” — Joe Kernen/H, (09:28)

• Moral & Strategic Tensions:

  • Hosts debate contradictions between U.S. rhetoric and the risk of civilian catastrophe in Iran.
  • “It’s hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you’re going to bomb the civilization.” — Becky Quick, (32:41)

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2. Market & IPO Pulse: Insights from M&A Expert Robert Kindler

(Guest segment: 20:58)

• Current M&A Wave:

  • Large deals in Q1 primarily reflect delays from 2025, not a true boom.
  • Regulatory regimes in the US and Europe remain restrictive; no floodgates have opened.
  • “These are deals that started probably six, eight months ago and just happened to be getting announced now.” — Robert Kindler, (21:28)
  • “I don’t think it’s a floodgate because people think you can do deals you could never do before.” — Kindler, (22:18)

• IPO Landscape:

  • Despite high-profile names (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic), total IPO volume is only now rebounding after 2025’s SEC-induced backlog.
  • Prediction: A “wide-open” market, with both AI giants and private equity seeking to monetize.

• SpaceX and Index Inclusion:

  • NASDAQ may now allow near-immediate index inclusion (<15 days), potentially skewing price discovery as index funds are “forced buyers.”
  • "I think the fact that you don’t have to wait three months and that within a week or so you can get right in the biggest index, I think it’s a big deal." — Kindler, (24:06)
  • Concern: Early inclusion may drive up prices temporarily, affecting retail and institutional investors.

• Bankers Using Client Products:

  • Discussion of SpaceX allegedly requiring bankers to adopt the company's GROK AI tool, drawing a parallel to historic “loyalty” moves in tech IPOs.
  • “These large investment banking firms are very big customers of these tech companies … and they absolutely use their spend.” — Kindler, (26:30)

• Ackman’s Universal Music Deal:

  • $63B offer framed not as an acquisition but a recapitalization—potentially “magical thinking.”
  • “It’s many things, but it’s not an acquisition.” — Kindler, (27:07)

• Firm Practice & Ethics:

  • Debate on whether top law firms should represent both corporations and activist investors/government adversaries.
  • “Why would you hire someone when they've represented the other side? It just doesn't make any sense.” — Kindler, (28:16)

---

3. Artemis 2: Human Spaceflight Record & NASA’s Lunar Plans

(Artemis 2 segment starts: 14:53, Interview at 35:36)

• Historic Mission:

  • Orion capsule travels further than any human mission before, surpassing Apollo 13.
  • 40-minute comms blackout on the moon’s far side—handled with calm confidence.
  • “They didn’t even think about it because they had so much confidence in what they're flying on.” — Joe Kernen/H, (36:01)
  • “We had ... a 24 hour comm outage … and it didn’t even raise our blood pressure. We were very focused on the tasks in front of us, just as the crew on Artemis 2 were.” — NASA’s Jared Isaacman, (37:42)

• Technical Goals & Outcomes:

  • Key focus: Testing Orion’s life-support systems (ECLSS)—performed well but identified plumbing issues.
  • Sets stage for Artemis 3 (2027), which will test crewed docking with landers in Earth orbit.
  • “This was the first time astronauts have ever been on the spacecraft. ... One of the most important objectives, ... and it's performing very well.” — Isaacman, (38:41)

• Moon Base & Lunar Exploration Vision:

  • Planned robotic missions to moon’s south pole starting early 2027, aiming for a near-monthly cadence, laying groundwork for a permanent lunar base.
  • South pole chosen for its water ice and near-eternal light (for solar power).
  • “100%. That’s exactly why we are targeting the south pole of the moon … we want to be there because of the water ice ... We have to master those skills someday if we’re going to go to Mars.” — Isaacman, (43:25)
  • Astronauts observed multiple meteorite strikes during the flyby—future “moon base roofing” is now a serious design concern.

• Visual Wonders & Human Experience:

  • Stunning, real images (not AI) transmitted back (“Earthrise” and colorful lunar photos).
  • “They mentioned … they don’t know if human eyes are ready to see what they’ve captured.” — Isaacman, (42:33)

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On impending war:
  “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” — President Trump, posted statement, (32:00)
• Moral vs. military calculus:
  “It’s hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you’re going to bomb the civilization.” — Becky Quick, (32:41)
• On Artemis 2's scientific payoff:
  “We’re going back to the playbook that worked for us on July 20, 1969. ... Artemis 3 in 2027 again will be very Apollo 9 like.” — Jared Isaacman, (40:10)
• On the IPO/investor experience:
  “By putting it in the index earlier, you’re basically forcing it on retail investors who may or may not want to buy at that moment.” — Joe Kernen/D, (25:09)
• On tech IPOs and 'forced loyalty':
  “Michael Grimes made us all sign up for Netflix.” — Robert Kindler, (26:30)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:05 — Show open; Hormuz crisis context
• 03:38 — Dan Murphy live from Abu Dhabi: diplomacy & market reaction
• 06:23 — Market and oil price analysis
• 08:19 — Investigation into real on-water oil traffic
• 20:58 — Robert Kindler interview: M&A, IPO, index inclusion, Ackman/Universal
• 35:36 — NASA Artemis 2 segment with Jared Isaacman

---

Tone & Style

The episode carries CNBC’s trademark high-energy, analytical, and sometimes combative discussion style. Hosts blend breaking news, sharp analysis, and light banter—balancing deeply serious geopolitics with the thrill of space exploration and Wall Street inside baseball.

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Conclusion

"A Deadline to Reopen Hormuz" offers a multi-layered look at a world on edge, stitching together the anxiety in global markets, the awe of a new lunar frontier, and the relentless drive of American business and policy. Both the risks of escalation in the Gulf and the promise of a lunar future are explored—with unfiltered views from heavyweight guests and on-the-ground reporters.

Listeners walk away with clarity on the implications of both breaking news and longer-term transformative trends in business, diplomacy, and the human quest into space.

Transcript

[A]

Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season, we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.

[B]

Not every sale happens at the register. Before AT&T business Wireless, checking out customers

[C]

on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses.

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It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence.

[D]

Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two.

[B]

Sometimes I do miss the bonding time.

[C]

Sometimes.

[B]

AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything. Bring in show music, please.

[C]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod deadline approaching. President Trump says Iran has until today to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

[E]

Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again.

[C]

An agreement may be unlikely.

[B]

It's hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you're going to bomb the civilization.

[C]

Tension from investors around the world is high.

[F]

The countdown is on. President Trump has blinked before today. We're going to find out if he blinks again.

[C]

Let's make a deal. One of Wall Street's deans of mergers and acquisitions, Robert Kindler of Paul Weiss on the boardroom deals America's business love most.

[E]

These are deals that started probably six, eight months ago and just happened to be getting announced now.

[C]

Plus, the Artemis 2 astronauts crossed the dark side of the moon and are headed back home. NASA administrator Jarek Isaacman joins us.

[G]

We're going back to the to the playbook that worked for us on July 20, 1969. We're bringing it back. We're launching missions with greater frequency. Artemis 3 in 2027 again will be very Apollo 9 like.

[C]

And we're inspired.

[H]

I thought that guy from 2001 who's still like this, he's further, but he's dead.

[D]

He's an actor.

[C]

It is Tuesday, April 7th, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.

[B]

Stand Becky by in three, two, one.

[D]

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on cnbc. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'M Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And here,

[H]

Thank you very much.

[E]

We have a plan because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12

[G]

o' clock tomorrow night.

[E]

Where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again.

[H]

I mean, complete demolition by 12 o'. Clock. And it'll happen over a period of four hours.

[E]

If we wanted to, we don't want that to happen.

[B]

President Trump vowing that the US Will destroy Iranian power plants and bridges. He says tonight if the country doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Want to get straight over to CNBC's Dan Murphy. He joins us now from Abu Dhabi with the latest. Good morning, Andrew.

[F]

Good morning. Well, the world is watching. And as President Trump's deadline draws closer, there's still no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough. President Trump's ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will expire at 8pm this evening. And if it does, the U.S. could begin an operation to demolish the country's power plants, bridges and energy infrastructure. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reports this morning, though, that negotiators are pessimistic. Iran will meet that deadline. And markets seem equally unconvinced. Crude is trading at around $110 a barrel this morning and there's still no sell off here. Oil traders appear to be pricing in esc, not a diplomatic off ramp. And of course, that comes after the US reportedly put a 45 day ceasefire proposal on the table. Iran rejected it, sending back a counter that asked for a permanent end to the war and sanctions relief. Trump called it a significant step, but also said it wasn't good enough. And we're also getting more reaction from the Gulf today as well. The UAE's presidential adviser Anwar Gargash posting on X this morning saying the UAE stance enjoys widespread support across the Gulf street. But he also went one step further here, saying the Iranian regime cannot be trusted. That is Abu Dhabi signaling whose side it is on ahead of President Trump's deadline. The UAE, of course, has been actively responding to Iranian missiles and drones today. Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry also said it had been intercepting 18 drones and seven ballistic missiles overnight. With debris falling near its own energy facilities, it's a reminder that Iran can still retaliate if the president gives the green light to those strikes. And of course, something that leaders in the Gulf capitals are watching. So the countdown is on. President Trump has blinked before today. We're going to find out if he blinks again. And we should know soon if this war is about to enter a new and far more dangerous phase.

[B]

And you meant, you mentioned that the markets thought that this was going to happen tonight. I wonder, actually, if you look at the, I mean, you can look at the WTI maybe that way. I don't know about ICE that way. But I think on the question, the bigger question is that the stock market looks like it, it may open up higher. And is that a function of a view that people think that actually the US either won't be bombing this evening or that those bombs will not be nearly as severe as thought before, and that there's going to be some kind of ongoing talks that, that bring this more to a close more quickly or at least create some kind of reprieve or something else.

[F]

It's a really good point, Andrew. And oil traders have been far more hawkish here. We are seeing the price premium for Brenton's WTI and also some of the other spreads, particularly here in the Middle east as well. Dubai and Oman also trading at premium. So it seems as if the oil market is calling for escalation, not a diplomatic off ramp, but on the equity trade. This has been interesting to watch as well. And in fact, through the course of the Asia and European trading days today, we actually saw equity not necessarily selling off here. In fact, it was quite well bid in Asia off the back of what was a decent lead from Wall Street. So if you are trading equity, it seems as if you're a lot less concerned about what could happen in the coming hours than you are if you're trading oil. But of course, for oil specifically, the primary focus is, is maybe not so much on the war headlines or the diplomacy headlines. It is, of course, on the Strait of Hormuz. Even if we did see a diplomatic off ramp emerging, let's say in the next couple of hours, Hormuz is going to remain effectively closed here. So in oil, yes, you have the war premium and the diplomacy headline weighing in. But the bigger factor is the issue surrounding this trade. Oil is likely going to be blocked for weeks, if not months to come, given the damage to infrastructure here. And of course, that's also being reflected in the prices right now as well.

[D]

Dan, Yesterday there was a story about a small Wall street firm that sent an analyst over to watch the Strait of Hormuz to see what was really happening. And by his account, it sounded like there were more ships that were passing through the Strait than we'd realized that they're turning off their GPS system, finding a way to spoof it, and perhaps cooperating by paying some sort of a toll to get through. But it made it sound like there's a lot more oil that's getting through, even if most of it's going to China. How do you try and get your arms around that to figure out how much oil is getting through every day?

[F]

It was a great piece. In fact, one of the most widely read pieces on CNBC.com in the last 12 hours. I took a lot of interest in that piece because inside, it basically explains how there has been some transits taking place through Hormuz. Again, a lot of secrecy surrounding the vessels. But it does appear as if we're seeing, of course, some ships, particularly Iranian vessels, being able to pass through, likely to Chinese, maybe even Russian buyers. But the transparency that we have around what is actually moving on the water right now is pretty unclear. And of course, without proper ground game and a real understanding of how much cargo is actually moving, that is adding to the risk for markets as well. And of course, as I mentioned just before, we are seeing the crude benchmarks here also reflecting that uncertainty and that reality on the water where it's still way too dangerous for captains and their cargoes to traverse.

[H]

We were going to actually it was Citrini research. And that's where we were headed after.

[D]

I remember the name of the firm. Yeah.

[H]

After this, Dan sent the analysts and ships moving through the waterway, reportedly what that person found, traffic picking up recently to about 15 ships per day. Anyway, thank you, Dan. We'll see you again, hopefully. And Citrini claims the actual shipping volume higher than reported data. Many vessels, as Becky said, turning off their transponders so that they're invisible. On the official tracking system described the situation in the waters near Iran as, in its words, a functional checkpoint rather than a blockade. And Citrini, that's the same firm that jolted the markets back in February when it issued a report laying out what would happen in a hypothetical scenario, oil prices dropped.

[D]

On that report that came out, this

[H]

had to do with AI Severely disrupts business in the jobs market. So it's a niche research firm. It's not quite so niche anymore as it gets.

[D]

Did you hear how the guy did it? He basically took a bunch of cash and Cuban cigars to use for bribes. For some of these things. He signed a pledge, I believe, in Oman that he would not do any research around this area. Then went out on a boat and kind of sat and watched, which talk about some High stakes, steel nerves to be able to do some of this stuff.

[H]

Cuban cigars, Right. Those always work.

[D]

Yeah, yeah. Right.

[H]

Something up real quick. I can't believe it's been that long. But my next story, we're talking about Michigan Wolverines.

[D]

Oh, 89, right?

[H]

Yeah, 89. And it wasn't the guy. It wasn't the guys. I was thinking, and thank God, because you remember the great Michigan players we've had over the years. They're all announcers now. Yeah, it wasn't those guys. And I was thinking, God, don't tell me that those guys were.

[D]

Yeah, 1989.

[H]

No, these were different. But Michigan dominant and not in the first half.

[D]

I watched the first half. I stayed up till 10 to watch the first half.

[H]

I mean, dominant. Until now.

[D]

Oh, yeah, until now.

[H]

Six points is the closest that I remember.

[D]

I think 15 or 19 was the

[H]

closest they were averaging.

[D]

They had a bunch of 90 plus points.

[H]

They had a bunch of 30.5 wins during the season. They really were dominant.

[D]

I think they only had three losses during the regular season.

[H]

One guard, Kyle Weissman, super Kai guy.

[D]

Yeah, super tall guy who's 73.

[H]

No, the other guy waiting for Godot.

[D]

He won the mvp.

[H]

He should have amazing everything, you know? No, look, passes. Anyway, Wolverines ended their dominant NCAA run with a national championship last night. They defeated UConn 69 to 63, cementing the school's first title since 1989. Also snapping a 26 year title drought for the Big Ten. And the 373 record was the best in Michigan basketball history. And I didn't sleep well because of this. Because I didn't.

[D]

Were you up?

[H]

No, no, but I had made a bet.

[D]

Michigan on UConn.

[H]

Oh, I wish I had.

[D]

Yeah.

[H]

Six and a half points. Oh, I bet on Michigan. Six and a half.

[D]

How is the money always right?

[H]

Unbelievable. I had to over so I wouldn't have won. Yeah. You know, I lost both ways, but. And I don't get up in the middle of the night to look because if you do that.

[D]

I didn't get Yukon to win it all for my brackets.

[H]

Oh, you did.

[D]

Yeah.

[H]

But if you look at it in the middle of the night, you can't go back to sleep. So I'm like, God, I'd like to look to see what. So I didn't sleep.

[B]

I don't know.

[H]

If I had an aura ring, it would.

[B]

It would be bad.

[H]

What's bad? What's really bad? What's the worst you've seen?

[D]

43.

[H]

The worst you've Seen how bad can it get?

[B]

I think on a. Like an overnight flight kind of thing where I've gotten like zero or two.

[D]

Zero.

[B]

No, I've gotten like two hours or an hour.

[H]

So what would that read?

[G]

Oh, yeah, like.

[B]

Like a 30 or something.

[D]

Wow.

[H]

And let's say you really feel well rested. Get, get, you know, nine hours. Is it a 90? Can you get.

[B]

I've got it in the 90s and

[D]

then you get in the 30s. Do you think I have to stop or I'm going to get sick?

[B]

I think if I get into 60s, I have to stop and I'm going to get sick.

[H]

Is there any way you can just not come in? Because it's not good for you. It's not good for us.

[A]

It's not.

[H]

You get like in the 60s and you're cranky. Can you just.

[D]

Is this a requirement that we all wear the rings?

[B]

I think. I don't think they should at this point. I mean, I shouldn't say. I think they sponsor the show and you and everyone should wear the rings. And there should be a little.

[D]

We have to share the information.

[B]

Sign on the thing. You know, I'm on this thing called circles where I share my number with other people.

[D]

I would never share my info with other people.

[B]

And you would be shocked on who's in my circle.

[D]

I would never share my info.

[H]

And their names, they're not anonymous.

[B]

Oh, it's amazing. I would say some of the biggest guests we've ever had. I can look and see how they're doing. Every day I get text messages.

[D]

Would you let them see where you are? Like, I would never share information.

[B]

I get text messages from people every day that, you know about how everybody's doing because we're all in the same circle.

[D]

That's so weird. Yeah, I wouldn't want anyone to know that.

[B]

Well, I have an 88 today, so I'm doing well. Nice to see you all 88. 88.

[H]

Oh, that's good.

[D]

NASA's Artemis 2 astronauts on their way home after journeying further from the Earth than any humans ever. The Orion capsule went into a communications blackout for about 40 minutes yesterday evening as it swung around the far side of the moon. The astronauts were treated to sights on the lunar surface that were never seen by human eyes. They also got views of old Apollo landing sites and a total solar eclipse. They used powerful cameras along with their iPhones to capture pictures of the moon. They are scheduled to splash down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday. Can I ask one stupid question? I should know the Answer to this, but I don't. How was it never seen by human eyes before? When Apollo 13 didn't go as far

[H]

around, they whipped around.

[D]

But they did go around the first side.

[H]

Yeah, they did. I don't think that was the plan, but they had to get.

[D]

They had to in order to get the spin, to get back the gravity.

[H]

It was amazing how they did that.

[D]

And basically in a refrigerator, in a tin can.

[H]

Basically, yeah. These people are very, very brave watchmen. It's so small, but like yesterday, people. They were doing it 50 years ago. I mean, it was like a tin can.

[B]

They were.

[D]

Yeah, that's what we were. Basically in a refrigerator that you're going around that was. And circling back. But they still saw it. Maybe they didn't see it as well because they didn't have cameras that were as good.

[H]

Right.

[D]

They swung around.

[H]

This was only 4,000. It was 4,000 miles away from the moon. Right?

[D]

Yeah.

[H]

I thought that guy from 2001 who's still like this, he's further, but he's dead.

[D]

He's an actor.

[H]

Well, there's that

[I]

tease will be next.

[C]

Still to come on Squawk pod the world of mergers and acquisitions with global chair of M and A, Paul Weiss, Robert Kindler.

[E]

It's going to be an incredible year for IPOs. The market markets wide open. And I think this is a time when not only the large companies, the AI companies, but also the private equity firms, they're going to go out there and they're going to monetize.

[C]

He advised on big deals for Charter, Time Warner, Comcast AT&T. And he's weighing in on hedge funder Bill Ackman's $64 billion pitch today for Universal Music.

[E]

It's many things, but it's not an acquisition.

[C]

Deals in the politics of business. Right after this,

[I]

Support for today's episode comes from Square. If you've ever tapped a pay and thought, whoa, that was fast, it was probably Square. Square is a platform behind the scenes of so many businesses you already love. Whether someone's selling smoothies, cutting hair, fixing bikes, or running a boutique, Square gives them one connected system to take payments, manage inventory, run payroll, send invoices, and track it all from one place. This isn't just a point of sale. Square includes hardware that works in person and on the go, software for managing staff, marketing and customer insights, and banking tools like Square checking to get paid instantly. Square is smart, transparent, and built for the way people actually run their businesses. No contracts, no hidden fees. Right now, you can get up to $200 off square hardware at square.com go squawk that's S Q U-A-R-E.com go squawk. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today.

[A]

This episode is brought to you by

[F]

Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

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[A]

Try [e-mail] Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need, and that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winchester, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season. Wherever you stream your podcasts Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing.

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[B]

It's going to talk dealmaking so far this year, the IPO pipeline and what could drive or hinder deals the rest of the year. M and A expert Robert Kindler joins us now, Global chair of Mergers and Acquisitions Group at Paul Weiss. Good morning to you, sir.

[E]

Good to be here.

[B]

Good to be back in a long time. So help, help us understand what's actually happening. I want to talk about IPOs because that's the big story of the year. But in terms of just mergers and acquisitions, which were always sort of the. A signal, a pulse on what was happening, they kind of lose confidence. People talk about a boom. You think we're in an M and a boom. What's happening here?

[E]

Okay, I think the first quarter has been great with a bunch of very large deals. But, but a lot of them were just delayed from last year. You know, last year in the fourth quarter we had the government shutdown. We had a lot of uncertainty going on. So basically these are deals that started probably six, eight months ago and just happened to be getting announced now. And you know, a lot of these deals have been in the works for years. Like the Cisco deal. We, we advise Cisco, you know, that they thought about doing that deal for a decade and it just happened that now is a good time to do it. So when you take a bunch of deals that were kind of delayed from last year and roll them into the

[B]

don't buy the argument that we are now in a regulatory environment under this administration that is allowing for a whole expansion of transactions.

[E]

No, I don't. I mean, I just think because a couple of things. First of all, in Europe it's still the same regulatory regime which is not that easy to do deals. And in the US it's still a populist administration. I mean, they basically, it's not exactly like they're in favor of big Pharma and big Tech necessarily. I do think they're more commercial, which I think is very good. So people can try to do deals that they didn't do in the past. But I don't think it's a floodgate of regulatory deal. I don't think it's a floodgate because people think you can do deals you could never do before.

[B]

What about what's happening in the IPO market right now? I mean, it does feel between what's going to happen with Space X, it's going to happen with open air, probably anthropic. Is that those just three and they suck all the oxygen out of the rest, or is that just the beginning of something Bigger.

[E]

Well, you know, the first quarter actually had a lot of volume in M and A, sorry, in IPOs, but the number of IPOs actually was down. And a lot of these also were from last year because, remember, the SEC shut down right in the fourth quarter. But yeah, it's going to be an incredible year for, for IPOs. The market's wide open and, and I think this is a time when not only the large companies, AI companies, but also the private equity firms, so they're going to go out there and they're going to monetize.

[B]

I got one for you. What do you think of this idea that the Nasdaq, which is going to take space X public or I don't think it's take a public, but it's going to happen here, that they are changing the rules apparently to allow for that company to be part of the index within 15 days of it landing in the market. Which means that all of a sudden everybody who owns these indexes are affected by forced buyers and what that does to price discovery. And whether you think this is a good trend, a bad trend.

[E]

Well, we don't know how New York Stock Exchange is going to respond. But on the other hand, NASDAQ has a big advantage in having qqq. Right. So I think it's real. I think the fact that you don't have to wait three months and that within a week or so you can get right in the biggest index, I think it's a big deal.

[B]

It's an amazing. For the company.

[E]

Yeah.

[B]

No question. I'm asking a slightly different question, which is do we think it's an amazing thing for the investor class, which is to say that if you have investors who've invested early in this company that might even be locked up or not locked up, and that all of a sudden there's a forced buyer in the market, what that does to.

[E]

So you're actually asking me whether this is good for investors rather than for the company.

[B]

Bingo.

[E]

Okay, look, the stock is going to end up trading at a normalized level at some point, whether it's, you know, three months or six months. So I do think being able to raise large amounts of money because you do have these indexes is probably a good thing. And at the end of the day, it's going to trade where it's going to trade.

[D]

I guess maybe it's better because I've been thinking about the same thing, too. We talked about this yesterday. Maybe it's better if it goes into the index. Maybe it's not before the lockups expire. That's the question. Do you end up transferring it? I think there'll be a lot of retail demand for this. But by putting it in the index earlier, you're basically forcing it on retail investors who may or may not want to buy or at least may or may not want to buy at that moment.

[E]

No, it's absolutely accurate that this could result in a spike in the index because of the overall demand and then when it settles down, the stock could go down.

[B]

I got a different one for you. Same thing, but interesting because you've lived through this as a banker and a lawyer. I'm sure you saw reports about Space X requiring or at least pushing the bankers and others to effectively use the GROK AI service to effectively become clients of GROK so that as. As an exchange or at least a demonstration of faith growth in. In the company. What do you make of that? There's been examples of this over the years.

[E]

Nothing new.

[B]

I remember where. Where bankers who were representing AT&T or Verizon would actually change their phone service. But that was usually on an individual basis. I don't remember necessarily entire firms.

[E]

This is actually quite typical. These large investment banking firms are very big customers of these tech companies companies and they absolutely use their spend. Now at the end of the day they're going to want to make sure they have the best technology. But no, there's nothing new on this. I remember many years ago, Michael Grime, when I was at Morgan Stanley, Michael Grimes made us all sign up for Netflix. And it's fine. I mean, there's nothing wrong with it.

[B]

And then finally, we've been talking about this Bill Ackman. Spark meets offer for Universal this morning. Universal Music. What do you make of that?

[E]

Well, whatever it is, it's not an acquisition. I mean, basically I see, you know, going along the bottom of the CNBC screen that he offered $63 billion. This is not an acquisition. This is a recapitalization. This is classic Bill Ackman kind of magical thinking that if you can reincorporate the Nevada list in the United States rates, buy back a quarter of your stock, say you're going to increase your dividend, right? That somehow magically something that was worth X is now worth Y. We'll see. It's many things, but it's not an acquisition. What was interesting to me just from the legal profession is that Sullivan and Cromwell and White and Case are representing Ackman. And recently Davis Polk represented Elliot. We would never do that. We just like, just like Morgan Stanley and Goldman. We don't represent activists. So to have S. And C. White and Case Davis spoke. I don't know, maybe it's a change, but it's not one we're going to

[B]

do a shift in terms of. And you think that corporate clients then drop. That's, that's the danger.

[E]

Why?

[B]

That's why you, that's why you don't do it.

[E]

Why would you hire someone when they've represented the other side? It just doesn't make any sense. You know, we have a tremendous activism practice, and I'd argue the best on the street. But why would you do that? Just not something we would.

[B]

In fairness, though, not to turn it political, but there's an argument to be made that if you were seeking to have somebody participate in litigation on your behalf, you might not. Against the U.S. government. You were the first, your firm was the first to effectively subjugate itself to this deal with, with, with the Trump administration at a time when those who actually fought it won.

[E]

Well, if we're going to go back to that.

[B]

No, I'm just saying there's an argument to be made. I get the argument you're making about the activists, but when you think through sort of the decisions people make.

[E]

Well, we don't have an active practice. We don't have an active practice suing the government. Right. Our practice is basically dealing with the government to get regulatory approval, to get appeals, to get. No, but to get deals cleared.

[B]

Right.

[E]

So when, when we were subject to the executive order, this wasn't even a close call. Clients wanted us to find an off ramp. Right. Because they wanted us to be viewed favorably by the government to get approvals for antitrust and all that. So I think that's quite different. When you have an activist franchise and you're all of a sudden out there

[B]

representing, what do you think of, like, Wilmahale, which obviously didn't, didn't go along with this, and then won?

[E]

Well, it depends what you mean by when. I think everyone knew that ultimately the litigation was going to be, you know, that order was not going to be upheld. The problem was, from a client perspective, why do you want to be viewed as adverse to the government when you need to get approvals, you need to get the sec. So this was driven by clients. It actually wasn't even a close call.

[B]

Robert Kindler, thank you for taking all the questions. This is fun. Thank you.

[H]

You might have got more clients if you were resisting.

[E]

No, we would have lost everyone, but.

[B]

They would have lost everyone. But

[H]

even Anthropic is going to flourish because they push back on the dictator.

[E]

But just to give you an idea, just again, this is. I know we're not on air, but just.

[B]

We're still on air, actually. We are.

[E]

We are on air.

[B]

Oh, yeah. Still on the air.

[H]

Always on air.

[E]

We basically, that's. We literally had clients calling us after the executive order. They said, look, we know this is going to be thrown out. Obviously it's going to be thrown out. But we need you to help us get deals through the antitrust regulators. We need you to do filings for the sec. We need. We need to have Paul Weiss. You're the best firm in antitrust. You're the best firm regulatory. You know, you put yourselves opposite the government. And what did we do? We agreed to do pro bono. We do $180 million a year worth of pro bono. We've done it for years.

[B]

We don't need to go too far on this. But there were a whole number of lawyers inside of Paul Weiss who were furious about this, some of whom left.

[E]

I actually think there was incredibly broad support, in fact, including the lawyers that left. I think the lawyer.

[B]

Why did the lawyers leave if they supported it?

[E]

I think that they wanted to have a boutique model of a law firm where they. It's much like why David Boies left Cravath a long time ago, because they wanted to pursue things that really were not consistent with a law firm that has large corporate clients. I don't think anything to do. They were all very commercial. They realized exactly what we were doing.

[H]

Correlation. That's why when you design an experiment, you get rid of all the other variables so that you can't just say something that might not the, as you love to say, empirical. Right?

[B]

Robert Kindler, thank you.

[D]

Thank you.

[H]

President Trump just posting, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen. Who knows? We will find out. Tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. 47 years of extortion, corruption and death will finally end. God bless the great people of Iran.

[B]

I don't understand. I mean, I understand, but the civilization idea is sort of a problem because it's hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you're going to bomb the civilization. Do you see what I'm saying? It's A real, I mean this is, that's the point. I know, but if this happens.

[H]

But he has argued that they are, they want him to completely get rid of the theocracy and that they're. But if it entails, you know, death and destruction across the entire country, you would say how does that help Iranian people? I mean we understand that but.

[B]

Well no, and I think that's the central issue. I think one of the things that's so interesting in a war, unfortunately and by the way, unfortunately we saw this in Israel and Gaza. You can go from being on the right side of things to being on the wrong side of things very quickly in the perception of the rest of the world. Well, I'm not, I don't give you

[H]

that, I don't grant you that as right in terms of Gaza and what happened there.

[B]

I'm not saying.

[H]

Well that's what it sounded like you just said. So he's saying that Israel went, is now in the wrong on.

[B]

I'm not saying you're in the wrong. I'm saying that the world, the world,

[F]

you know, the world, it's all.

[H]

But even people in Iran that were very positive about the initial moves that the president made are now putting tape on the windows. Correct.

[B]

And so that's what I'm saying and I think we have to be very careful about how we do this and I'm not sure we're. It doesn't feel well that sounded like when you hear that kind of content

[H]

that sounded like he's saying I'm to going giving you one. This is what's going to happen. You still have time because he said something but he said a new, you know, we have a more reasonable regime that we're talking to now and maybe they will come to their senses before midnight tonight. Still working it. Still working.

[D]

What is 8pm the deadline or midnight? I thought 8pm was the midnight deadline

[B]

and then it will happen at midnight probably a couple hours to begin moving

[H]

next on squawk pod to infinity and beyond.

[C]

The crew of Artemis 2 is coming home from the farthest away from Earth humans have ever been. NASA administrator Jarek Isaacman joins us and shares the space strategy into 2027 and

[G]

yeah beyond we're going to start landing uncrewed robotic missions on a near month cadence on the south pole of the moon and actually start building the moon base. You're going to have landers and rovers going around testing mobility, power surface improvements. We may have our version of a mini, mini bulldozer there.

[C]

We'll be Right back. This is squawk pod in 3, 2, 1.

[H]

Becky's mic you and you're watching Squawk

[D]

box right here on cnbc. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

[H]

The Artemis 2 crew of astronauts has set the record for the farthest distance traveled by or from Earth by a human mission, breaking Apollo 13's record set in 1970. Joining us now on the historic moon flyby is NASA Administrator Jared Isaac. Man, it's good to see you again, sir. Thank you for joining us.

[G]

Good to see you as well. And thanks for having me on to talk about this great mission.

[H]

When they spoke to the people actually involved up in that were going around the moon and asked about that 40 minute, you know, lack of communication, they said they didn't even think about it because they had so much confidence in what they're flying on in the integrity of that spacecraft, I guess. Were you, you weren't nervous either, I'll bet, were you?

[G]

No. It's funny, we get, get that question quite a bit. And no, we weren't very nervous at all. In fact, it's quite common to have loss of communications, you know, loss of signal with, with our astronaut missions, whether on the International Space Station, certainly if you're going around the moon, you expect it. When they're in simulators, you know, we'll fail out comms pretty routinely and you'll notice the astronauts just get, you know, kind of see, stick with the work. So I would say that was, you know, compared to a lot of the other things that we were thinking about in that, in that particular moment or throughout this mission, like the life support system on Orion, that's probably the most significant test. That's where our attention was, not necessarily the, the loss of comm. And I'm not surprised they thought it was rather peaceful actually for, for us to, you know, leave him alone for a little bit.

[H]

Right. You're not your, your father's administrator. I mean, you walked in space as a private citizen. So I guess you've experienced not doubt, but not fear. I don't know. You certainly have looked into the abyss and seen that maybe there's nothing there, but there is something there. I think I'm scared to death. Yeah.

[G]

Well, I'll tell you, actually on my last mission, just on the comms point, I mean, we had, I want to say nearly a 24 hour comm outage and like I said, said the crew, we didn't, it didn't even raise our blood pressure. We were very focused on the tasks in front of us, just as the crew on Artemis 2 were. And in terms of what's out there. Well, I don't know if you've had a chance to look at your X feed this morning, but the White House just released an absolutely phenomenal Earthrise picture that this crew took yesterday and transmitted to us first thing this morning. And it is absolutely stunning.

[H]

It must be to be able to. And they must feel. I just mentioned, they must feel so far away from Earth, and yet they're on their way back at this point. Can you tell us in terms of the objectives that you were looking for, in terms of science and testing out systems for a future landing on the moon? What did we find out yesterday?

[G]

Well, I would say so far, and again, this is really from the moment they arrived in Earth orbit, our interest was predominantly with the ECLSS system, the life support system on the Orion spacecraft. This is the first time astronauts have ever been on the spacecraft. This was the first time astronauts have ever been on the actual rocket itself that put them into space. And this is incredibly important. It is extremely hard, you know, to keep human beings alive in the harsh environment of space. Right. I mean, you've got radiation out there, you've got micrometeoroids in orbital debris. There's a lot that goes into that. We certainly learned that we've got some plumbing issues we've got to work out on the. On the spacecraft. But I'll tell you, the Orion is performing exceptionally well. That was probably the most important objective, to move on to Artemis 3 in 2027, where we're going to take the same spacecraft, Orion, and rendezvous and dock it with the actual landers in Earth orbit, test the integrated operations. We'll learn from that just as we are from this mission for Artemis 4, when the landers will take the astronauts to the surface of the moon. So ECLSS systems life support on Orion is probably one of the most important things we wanted to get out of this mission. And it's performing very well.

[H]

So the landers will be in orbit when it goes up, and there'll be docking and then a thrust to the moon and then the landers go down and sort of similar to LEM and a lunar landing module that we had back in Apollo.

[G]

Yeah, absolutely. So right now, think of this mission. Artemis 2 is essentially a combination of Apollo 7 and 8 coming together. Artemis 3 in 2027 will be very much like Apollo 9. I mean, we're bringing, we're going back to the, to the playbook that worked for us on July 20, 1969. We're bringing it back. We're launching missions with greater frequency. Artemis 3 in 2027 again will be very Apollo 9. Like where we're going to test the lander and Orion in Earth orbit. If there's anything that we don't like there, you're very close to come back to home. And then in 2028, you'll have essentially what will be the, the Apollo 11 mission, which will be Artemis 4, where Orion spacecraft and the lander will be together in lunar orbit. The lander will take two astronauts down to the surface of the moon. They'll conduct their operations. They'll come back, rendezvous again with Orion.

[H]

Jared, since we were further than we've ever been before, I guess that when we went around the moon earlier, we must have been closer. We were closer than 4,000 miles the last time. Did we find that? Do we know anything new about the dark side of the moon or about the moon itself, what we've learned in the last couple of days?

[G]

Well, I would say the astronauts have done a fantastic job on Artemis 2 of observations, and they've been reporting that back. They have a pretty sophisticated tool that our science team has developed to look with various lenses at specific parts of the moon, some, some parts that have never had human eyes on them at all before. And relay it back. I'll tell you, last evening they all got our attention when they say they observed about four, you know, meteorite strikes on the far side of the moon. So, you know, my first reaction is, okay, we're building a moon base. We're going to have to think about our roofing here a little bit. But that was, that was a special observation.

[H]

Wow, still no cheese, I'm told.

[G]

Nope, no cheese, no pyramids back there. It's where we're learning a lot. They actually described the far versus the near side in great detail during the webcast last night. But, yeah, no, no cheese or pyramids yet.

[D]

Administrator. I've seen pictures online that are beautiful, but with so much AI and fakery online, I just wonder, are they real? Did it really look orange and purple and blue all at the same time?

[G]

I, I mean, I just looked at the pictures about five minutes before getting on, on this, on this interview right now, and I would just say they looked absolutely stunning. They mentioned this last night during the webcast that they don't know if, if human eyes are ready to see what they've captured. And I mean, I just, I just completely paused when I saw it. But this is this is not AI this is why we do what we do. This is why we send astronauts farther into space than ever before. It's why we bring them back home and learn and do it again and again as we continue what is, I think, the greatest adventure in human history.

[H]

And it's possible from nothing has changed in terms of where we will be landing. It's a much more difficult terrain, isn't it? But. But we want to go to the south pole of the moon. Any chance there, do you still think there might be water there, Jared?

[G]

100%. That's exactly why we are targeting the south pole of the moon. This is. This is why we're going to build our base there. So we're talking astronauts on Artemis for landing on the south pole of the moon. But I'm telling you, in a matter of months, I mean, really, by the beginning of 2027, we're going to start landing uncrewed robotic missions on a near monthly cadence on the south pole of the moon and actually start building the moon base. You're going to have landers and rovers going around testing mobility, power, surface improvements. We may have our version of a mini, mini bulldozer there to start creating landing pads for the landers. But we want to be there because of the water ice. You have ridges that give you near what we refer to as eternal light. So you have solar power. But the water ice we can interact with. We can make propellant. And we have to master those skills someday if we're going to go to Mars.

[H]

Administrator Eisenman, thank you very much. And we want to keep doing this this year, next year and beyond.

[D]

I want to hear more about the meteor.

[H]

To infinity and beyond. Yeah.

[G]

Yes, sir.

[C]

That is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for listening. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern or get the best of our TV show right into your ears when you follow Squawk Pod wherever you get your podcasts and listen anytime you want. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

[B]

We are clear. Thanks, guys.

[A]

Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen. But most aren't getting the support they need, and that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winchester, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season, we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why. Opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.