Squawk Pod Episode Summary

Episode Title: A Deadline to Reopen Hormuz 4/7/26
Air Date: April 7, 2026
Podcast: Squawk Pod (CNBC)
Hosts: Becky Quick, Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Special Guests: Robert Kindler (Paul Weiss), Jared Isaacman (NASA Administrator), Dan Murphy (CNBC, Abu Dhabi)

Overview

This episode centers on two urgent global stories:

1. Critical US-Iran Tensions: President Trump has set an ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face military action, with global markets and geopolitics hanging in the balance.
2. Historic NASA Milestone: Artemis 2 astronauts complete a record-breaking mission, traveling further from Earth than any prior human crew, with NASA’s future space plans revealed.

Additionally, the episode features deep dives into M&A trends, regulatory shifts, and the IPO landscape with expert Robert Kindler, including recent large tech deals and the effect of new index rules on landmark IPOs like SpaceX.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US-Iran Showdown Over the Strait of Hormuz

(Segment start: 01:05)

• President Trump’s Ultimatum:
  Trump warns of massive US military strikes on Iranian infrastructure if Hormuz remains closed past an 8pm deadline.

  • ["Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again." — President Trump, (01:16, quoted by CNBC)]

• Investor and Market Reactions:

  • Oil prices (~$110/barrel) reflect war premium rather than faith in diplomacy.
  • Equity markets show more calm, indicating hope for de-escalation or belief that impacts could be limited.
    • “It seems as if the oil market is calling for escalation, not a diplomatic off ramp, but on the equity trade ... it seems as if you’re a lot less concerned.” — Dan Murphy, (06:23)

• Diplomatic Breakdown:

  • A 45-day US-proposed ceasefire was rejected by Iran; Iran countered with demands for a permanent resolution and sanctions relief.
  • Other Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia) brace for repercussions, intercepting drones and missiles.
  • "Iran rejected [the US proposal], sending back a counter that asked for a permanent end to the war and sanctions relief. Trump called it a significant step, but also said it wasn’t good enough." — Dan Murphy, (03:38)

• Realities of the Shipping Blockade:

  • Reports suggest “functional checkpoint” rather than total closure.
  • Ships, many Iranian, are moving through Hormuz—often to China—by spoofing GPS and paying bribes; traffic could be up to 15 ships/day.
  • “Traffic [is] picking up recently to about 15 ships per day. … Many vessels turning off their transponders so they’re invisible on the official tracking system.” — Joe Kernen/H, (09:28)

• Moral & Strategic Tensions:

  • Hosts debate contradictions between U.S. rhetoric and the risk of civilian catastrophe in Iran.
  • “It’s hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you’re going to bomb the civilization.” — Becky Quick, (32:41)

2. Market & IPO Pulse: Insights from M&A Expert Robert Kindler

(Guest segment: 20:58)

• Current M&A Wave:

  • Large deals in Q1 primarily reflect delays from 2025, not a true boom.
  • Regulatory regimes in the US and Europe remain restrictive; no floodgates have opened.
  • “These are deals that started probably six, eight months ago and just happened to be getting announced now.” — Robert Kindler, (21:28)
  • “I don’t think it’s a floodgate because people think you can do deals you could never do before.” — Kindler, (22:18)

• IPO Landscape:

  • Despite high-profile names (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic), total IPO volume is only now rebounding after 2025’s SEC-induced backlog.
  • Prediction: A “wide-open” market, with both AI giants and private equity seeking to monetize.

• SpaceX and Index Inclusion:

  • NASDAQ may now allow near-immediate index inclusion (<15 days), potentially skewing price discovery as index funds are “forced buyers.”
  • "I think the fact that you don’t have to wait three months and that within a week or so you can get right in the biggest index, I think it’s a big deal." — Kindler, (24:06)
  • Concern: Early inclusion may drive up prices temporarily, affecting retail and institutional investors.

• Bankers Using Client Products:

  • Discussion of SpaceX allegedly requiring bankers to adopt the company's GROK AI tool, drawing a parallel to historic “loyalty” moves in tech IPOs.
  • “These large investment banking firms are very big customers of these tech companies … and they absolutely use their spend.” — Kindler, (26:30)

• Ackman’s Universal Music Deal:

  • $63B offer framed not as an acquisition but a recapitalization—potentially “magical thinking.”
  • “It’s many things, but it’s not an acquisition.” — Kindler, (27:07)

• Firm Practice & Ethics:

  • Debate on whether top law firms should represent both corporations and activist investors/government adversaries.
  • “Why would you hire someone when they've represented the other side? It just doesn't make any sense.” — Kindler, (28:16)

3. Artemis 2: Human Spaceflight Record & NASA’s Lunar Plans

(Artemis 2 segment starts: 14:53, Interview at 35:36)

• Historic Mission:

  • Orion capsule travels further than any human mission before, surpassing Apollo 13.
  • 40-minute comms blackout on the moon’s far side—handled with calm confidence.
  • “They didn’t even think about it because they had so much confidence in what they're flying on.” — Joe Kernen/H, (36:01)
  • “We had ... a 24 hour comm outage … and it didn’t even raise our blood pressure. We were very focused on the tasks in front of us, just as the crew on Artemis 2 were.” — NASA’s Jared Isaacman, (37:42)

• Technical Goals & Outcomes:

  • Key focus: Testing Orion’s life-support systems (ECLSS)—performed well but identified plumbing issues.
  • Sets stage for Artemis 3 (2027), which will test crewed docking with landers in Earth orbit.
  • “This was the first time astronauts have ever been on the spacecraft. ... One of the most important objectives, ... and it's performing very well.” — Isaacman, (38:41)

• Moon Base & Lunar Exploration Vision:

  • Planned robotic missions to moon’s south pole starting early 2027, aiming for a near-monthly cadence, laying groundwork for a permanent lunar base.
  • South pole chosen for its water ice and near-eternal light (for solar power).
  • “100%. That’s exactly why we are targeting the south pole of the moon … we want to be there because of the water ice ... We have to master those skills someday if we’re going to go to Mars.” — Isaacman, (43:25)
  • Astronauts observed multiple meteorite strikes during the flyby—future “moon base roofing” is now a serious design concern.

• Visual Wonders & Human Experience:

  • Stunning, real images (not AI) transmitted back (“Earthrise” and colorful lunar photos).
  • “They mentioned … they don’t know if human eyes are ready to see what they’ve captured.” — Isaacman, (42:33)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On impending war:
  “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” — President Trump, posted statement, (32:00)
• Moral vs. military calculus:
  “It’s hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you’re going to bomb the civilization.” — Becky Quick, (32:41)
• On Artemis 2's scientific payoff:
  “We’re going back to the playbook that worked for us on July 20, 1969. ... Artemis 3 in 2027 again will be very Apollo 9 like.” — Jared Isaacman, (40:10)
• On the IPO/investor experience:
  “By putting it in the index earlier, you’re basically forcing it on retail investors who may or may not want to buy at that moment.” — Joe Kernen/D, (25:09)
• On tech IPOs and 'forced loyalty':
  “Michael Grimes made us all sign up for Netflix.” — Robert Kindler, (26:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:05 — Show open; Hormuz crisis context
• 03:38 — Dan Murphy live from Abu Dhabi: diplomacy & market reaction
• 06:23 — Market and oil price analysis
• 08:19 — Investigation into real on-water oil traffic
• 20:58 — Robert Kindler interview: M&A, IPO, index inclusion, Ackman/Universal
• 35:36 — NASA Artemis 2 segment with Jared Isaacman

Tone & Style

The episode carries CNBC’s trademark high-energy, analytical, and sometimes combative discussion style. Hosts blend breaking news, sharp analysis, and light banter—balancing deeply serious geopolitics with the thrill of space exploration and Wall Street inside baseball.

Conclusion

"A Deadline to Reopen Hormuz" offers a multi-layered look at a world on edge, stitching together the anxiety in global markets, the awe of a new lunar frontier, and the relentless drive of American business and policy. Both the risks of escalation in the Gulf and the promise of a lunar future are explored—with unfiltered views from heavyweight guests and on-the-ground reporters.

Listeners walk away with clarity on the implications of both breaking news and longer-term transformative trends in business, diplomacy, and the human quest into space.