A Fed Cut, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, & Steve Eisman 12/11/25

Summary

Squawk Pod Episode Summary — December 11, 2025

Podcast: Squawk Pod
Hosts: Becky Quick, Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Special Guests: Steve Eisman, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Sharon Epperson
Theme: The episode dives into the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and its broader economic and political implications, explores consumer credit dynamics in a "K-shaped" economy, and features deep-dive interviews with famed investor Steve Eisman and Senator Elizabeth Warren.

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the implications of the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut, internal divisions at the Fed, and speculation around its future leadership. It features an insightful discussion with Steve Eisman—best known for “The Big Short”—who brings both personal and professional revelations, from his recent cancer diagnosis to concerns about the future of AI and chip markets. The episode concludes with Senator Elizabeth Warren unpacking the political battles over the Fed’s independence and antitrust issues in media mega-mergers.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. The Federal Reserve’s Third Rate Cut — Uncertainty and Debate

Timestamps: 02:44 – 07:16, 13:31 – 13:59

• Fed’s Move: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%, marking the third consecutive cut this year. However, Fed messaging was cautious, signaling a tougher road for more cuts ahead.
  • “Stocks took off right after that decision came out… but the plot also reflected divisions among Fed members.” — Becky Quick (02:53)
• Internal Dissent: The rate cut saw three dissents (two regional presidents wanting no cut, and a governor wanting deeper cuts).
  • “… divisions among Fed members, some of whom indicated they didn’t agree with yesterday’s decision and seven of whom don’t want any cuts at all next year.” — Andrew Ross Sorkin (03:31)
• Market Reaction: Despite the cautious tone, markets surged, raising questions about investor sentiment and expectations.
  • “My question is why did the market go up yesterday?” — Joe Kernen (05:19)

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2. Consumer Credit Health and K-Shaped Recovery

Timestamps: 15:44 – 19:40

• Credit Score Trends: Sharon Epperson reports VantageScore’s average is healthy at 701, but delinquencies are rising among lower-income consumers while falling for higher-income groups.
  • “For high income and middle income consumers, their late payments…dropped…when you look at the lower income consumers…delinquencies have increased.” — Silvio Tavares, VantageScore CEO (16:38)
• No Quick Relief from Rate Cuts: Borrowers shouldn’t expect immediate decreases in borrowing costs despite lower Fed rates.
  • “Some people may be expecting to see an automatic decrease in their borrowing costs. And that’s not going to happen.” — Sharon Epperson (18:09)

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3. Steve Eisman: From Personal Battle to Market Risks

Timestamps: 20:01 – 23:58, 24:43 – 31:57

A. Health Revelation

• Diagnosis & Outlook: Eisman shares his recent breast cancer diagnosis (rare in men), treatment journey, and the importance of awareness.
  • “Yes, it’s rare for men, but it’s not unheard of. And if you see something on your breasts and you’re a man, just check it out.” — Steve Eisman (21:48)
  • “Your friend saved your life.” — Eisman quoting his doctor on early detection (22:19)
• Treatment Advances: Chemo is “much more tolerable” than in the past; prognosis is “close to 100%” cure (23:43).

B. Market, Fed, and AI Discussion

• Fed Relevance: Eisman downplays the current impact of the Fed, saying it's “tinkering around the edges.”
  • “The only time the Fed really matters is when it’s being very aggressive at cutting rates or very aggressive at raising rates. If it’s just tinkering around the edges, which is what it’s clearly doing, it’s irrelevant.” — Steve Eisman (13:31, 24:55)
• Critical AI Thesis: Eisman highlights concerns over AI’s rapid scaling—specifically, whether Large Language Models (LLMs) will hit limits in improvement, potentially reducing demand for AI chips:
  • “This argument makes me nervous and I pay attention to it every day.” — Steve Eisman (29:03)
  • Refers to NYU’s Gary Marcus and OpenAI’s Ilya Sutskever increasingly voicing doubts about further LLM scaling value.
  • “If this argument is right… companies like Microsoft… are going to start buying fewer chips. This is the foundational argument that everybody should be focused on all the time.” — Steve Eisman (28:13)
• AI Infrastructure & Risks: Discusses massive capital spend, and the bottleneck around power and energy:
  • “We should all pray for mild winters over the next five years. Because if we have some really bad winters, the grid is going to get very stressed.” — Steve Eisman (32:09)

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4. Senator Elizabeth Warren: Fed Independence & Media Mergers

Timestamps: 34:32 – 48:13

A. Fed Policy & Leadership

• Defending Independence: Warren, a longtime critic of Jay Powell, now stresses the critical need for Fed independence, warning against Trump’s desire for control:
  • “Donald Trump doesn’t want that. He wants to be able to control it… even if he’s creating tariff chaos, he wants the Fed to juice the economy.” — Elizabeth Warren (32:48, 37:18)
• Leadership Concerns: She faults potential Trump pick Kevin Hassett as a “sock puppet”:
  • “He has made clear that he will do whatever the president wants done...that is the very definition of a sock puppet.” — Warren (39:31)

B. Antitrust & Mega-Mergers

• Media Deal Fears: Warren strongly opposes potential Netflix and Paramount acquisitions of Warner Bros., framing it as an antitrust nightmare that harms workers and consumers:
  • “What they want to do is squeeze the people who do the work… and be able to charge customers more. And that is the heart of why we have antitrust laws.” — Elizabeth Warren (43:22)
• Concerns about Presidential Interference: Raises alarms about presidential involvement in merger decisions—calling it unprecedented and dangerous to the rule of law:
  • “For the first time… a big merger… the President of the United States has stepped up and said that he plans to be part of the decision making...that doesn’t make the hair on the back of your neck stand up, I don’t know what does.” — Elizabeth Warren (45:20)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On the Fed’s Position

“We don't know. They're waiting to see what happens both with the labor market and with inflation.” — Becky Quick (01:03, 05:24)

On Monetary Policy Debates

“The only time the Fed really matters is when it’s being very aggressive at cutting rates or very aggressive at raising rates. If it’s just tinkering around the edges...it’s irrelevant.” — Steve Eisman (13:31; 24:55)

On AI’s Potential Limits

“If this argument is right… companies like Microsoft… will start buying fewer chips. This is the foundational argument that everybody should be focused on.” — Steve Eisman (28:13)

Personal Health PSA

“Yes, it’s rare for men, but it’s not unheard of. And if you see something on your breasts and you’re a man, just check it out.” — Steve Eisman (21:48)

On Fed Independence

“Are Republicans really willing to stand up for the principles they say they believe in, like an independent Fed? Or are they just going to say whatever Donald Trump wants is what they'll go along with?” — Senator Elizabeth Warren (37:57)

On Antitrust Laws

“That antitrust law is there to make these markets work better for all of us… We should all embrace antitrust laws and block these mergers.” — Senator Elizabeth Warren (47:26)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed Rate Cut Analysis: 02:44 – 07:16; 13:31 – 13:59
• Consumer Credit Health: 15:44 – 19:40
• Steve Eisman Interview: 20:01 – 32:31
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren Interview: 34:32 – 48:13

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Takeaways

• Fed’s cautious rate cut sparks market optimism but reveals conflict within the central bank.
• Consumer borrowing costs won’t drop quickly, and lower-income Americans are still at risk.
• Steve Eisman shares a personal health update and urges men to get checked for breast cancer. He voices anxiety on potential limits of AI and its impact on chip demand—likening it to the hidden risks of the pre-crisis mortgage market.
• Senator Warren warns of threats to Fed independence in the face of possible Trump appointments, and denounces presidential meddling in blockbuster media mergers as undermining the rule of law and fair competition.

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Tone:
Lively, insightful, at times blunt—mixing market analysis with candid personal discussions and urgent political warnings. The episode balances market mechanics, socioeconomic trends, and political stakes with notable moments of wit and gravity from its characters.

Transcript

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

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[AT&T Business Announcer]

And now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn [e-mail] 5G Network.

[Steve Eisman]

Bring in show music please.

[Katie Kramer]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pot, the Fed moves. It's the day after the central bank made itself third quarter point rate cut this year with a strong dose of caution about the economy.

[Becky Quick]

We don't know. They're waiting to see what happens both with the labor market and with inflation.

[Katie Kramer]

Senator Elizabeth Warren on the Fed's future under new leadership.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Still tbd, the president is looking for someone who will do his bidding and.

[Katie Kramer]

With political implications in the new year.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Are Republicans really willing to stand up for the principles they say they believe in, like an independent Fed? Are they just going to say whatever Donald Trump wants is what they'll go along with?

[Katie Kramer]

Famed investor Steve Eisman. Remember the big short? He's on alert over one AI idea that could impact the chip business.

[Steve Eisman]

I'm not selling anything, but this argument makes me nervous and I pay attention to it every day.

[Katie Kramer]

And Eisman's personal PSA after a serious diagnosis.

[Steve Eisman]

Yes, it's rare for men, but it's not unheard of. And if you see something on your breasts and you're a man, just check it out.

[Katie Kramer]

All that today. Plus will lower rates impact your credit spending. Personal finance correspondent Sharon Epperson on the consumer impact.

[Sharon Epperson]

Some people may be expecting to see an automatic decrease in their borrowing costs. And that's not going to happen.

[Katie Kramer]

It's Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025, the day.

[Joe Kernen]

After the Fed cutting interest rates.

[Katie Kramer]

Squawk Pod begins right now.

[Steve Eisman]

Stand Becky by in three, two, one. Fewer, please.

[Becky Quick]

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on cnbc. We're live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin and it is the day after the Fed decision and turns out what the Fed gives Oracle will take away in support of our.

[Steve Eisman]

Goals in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Today the Federal Open Market Committee decided.

[Steve Eisman]

To lower our policy interest rate by.

[Becky Quick]

A quarter percentage point during the session yesterday. Stocks took off right after that decision came out. Saw the Dow up by about 500 points. Gains across the board again with all of these and the Russell 2000 set yet another all time high. We'll keep an eye on that today, but year to date it's up by 14% just this week it's had a pretty spectacular week. It's been up sharply. Yesterday it was up by 1.4%. If you take a look at treasury yields post Oracle and post the Fed, probably more importantly, the 10 year yield has come down. It's at 414. The 2 year is at 354. Although there are all kinds of questions about what comes next for the Fed.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the third meeting in a row to a range now of 3.5 to 7 to 3.75%. But the Fed signaling a tougher road ahead for further cuts. So I'm not sure we're going to expect that. The so called dot plot of rate expectations indicating only one cut next year and one more in 27 that was unchanged from September. But the plot also reflected divisions among Fed members, some of whom indicated they didn't agree with yesterday's decision and seven of whom don't want any cuts at all next year. The vote to cut also included three dissents for the first time in years. So we got a lot of battling going on. It appears two of those votes came from regional Fed presidents who didn't want to cut and one came from a Fed Governor, Stephen Myron, who wanted deeper reductions. Here's Fed Chair Jay Powell at that post meeting press conference.

[Steve Eisman]

We now cut a total of 175 basis points.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

And as I mentioned, you know, we.

[Steve Eisman]

Feel like where we're positioned now puts, we're well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves from here.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Now following that decision yesterday, President Trump saying officials should have cut rates by at least 50 basis points instead of the 25.

[Steve Eisman]

He did a.

Rather, I would say a rather small number that could have been doubled, at least doubled.

[Joe Kernen]

And that's the other thing.

[Steve Eisman]

I think the rates for the United States are always the lowest in the world because without us there is no world.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

The question that I have which I don't know enough about is let's say Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh or you name your person becomes the next Fed chair. Someone not named Kevin, Someone not named Jay.

[Joe Kernen]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

How does that dot plot actually change? It does. Does it really matter?

[Joe Kernen]

My question is why the market go up yesterday? Got a good question.

[Becky Quick]

I did not have a good explanation for that. I think the bigger issue is going to be and Powell kind of laid this out. We don't know. They're waiting to see what happens both with the labor market and with inflation. He did not sound as hawkish as I thought.

[AT&T Business Announcer]

Right.

[Joe Kernen]

But what he said was horrible. They said, we're in such a tough spot, we don't know which is worse.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

Inflation, a weaker labor market or both.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

And so it was very strange that maybe I was thinking maybe it went up because we do have.

Not group think. It's not rubber stamps. Not only did you have three dissents, but. But two of them were one way and the other one was the other way. So at least there's some debate going on his discussion.

[Becky Quick]

I mean his talking points were far less hawkish than I had anticipated they would be. And maybe that's why.

[Joe Kernen]

Maybe that's why. But there's a lot of people, including the Journal today that are saying, what are you doing? Everybody, you're forecasting better growth. The Fed itself, why are you still cutting? So there's a lot of people and we get, you know, our emails and everything else. Like what? And Rick Santelli yesterday. There's a lot of people that worry about the dollar and hard money and not devaluing currency and printing too much. A lot of people that worry about that maybe, you know, when you hear that it's just one, maybe that's good that it might be just one. Some people take it positively lowest level.

[Becky Quick]

Yesterday since October 28th, since before Halloween.

[Joe Kernen]

They're on it. They're on the case, the inflation case, which they maybe weren't on so much that a couple of years ago, but they're on it. Okay. I guess you got why to go up.

[Becky Quick]

It was likely for inflation to come back closer to 2% once we get through some of the tariffs.

[Joe Kernen]

You would think, even though I don't think the tariffs are the problem. I think housing and wages. Wages are rising, which is good, but wages are rising much quicker than they were before.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Or maybe it's just that there's so much of a fight going on and you say to yourself, okay, if Jay Powell is not one of the voting members and can wrangle these people. Maybe get a better answer later.

[Becky Quick]

Although Myron had said that if he was the deciding vote, he would vote for a quarter paint. Right. We paint him as a center because he wants more cuts.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But no but in terms of just more cuts coming in. 27. You may say to yourself, okay, look at where. Look at where they say they are.

[Becky Quick]

26. 26 ahead of ourselves.

[Joe Kernen]

Look at. We'll begin not do that.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So you live every day.

[Joe Kernen]

I'm definitely living every year. Okay.

Oracle shares are a problem.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

They're not living every. Every day.

[Joe Kernen]

Closed at 223 yesterday and the bid is 197. We did the math for you there on that chart. That's 11%. The company beat earnings estimates but missed on revenue and cloud infrastructure sales metrics. I was just thinking. I started smiling. Our next story. Maybe we ought to put a Paramount story in there next. You know, it's like, whoa, hold on. Because. Do the math. Do the math on what?

[Becky Quick]

That's the first thing I thought when the stock fell yesterday. Are they going to have these.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Goes to the point up to 35. But this goes to the point of why the board of Time, of Time Warner of Warner Brothers Discovery wants to. Has. Has favored the Netflix deal in part because they're saying to themselves it's a. They think Netflix is a $400 billion company that's effectively going to be able to buy it no matter what happens.

[Joe Kernen]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

They don't. There's. There's a conversation. Paramount is tiny inside of the Time Warner world or Warner Brothers world. That's saying we don't really know all of these different pockets of money. One of the pockets is. Is the Ellison family and that pockets relying on Oracle. And we think, I mean, some of them actually think that there's a bubble going on in the market and therefore maybe Oracle's prices.

[Joe Kernen]

And then even though it's not shares of Oracle, it's just that the father of the guy who's, who's doing things.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But it's just, it's.

[Joe Kernen]

But he did. He does imply, like with David Saber the other day. There's no. Just leave it there. I'm going to read it. Just leave it there. But he does imply that if you needed money, he.

[Becky Quick]

Oh, he doesn't just apply it.

[Joe Kernen]

He said it.

[Becky Quick]

He said.

That the Oracle, you know, the Ellison family and their firm are going to be backing this up.

[Joe Kernen]

Not Oracle, but the market cap loss today. Could almost buy Skydance. No. Could almost buy what they want. Oh, the 7 the market cap loss in Oracle today is about $70 billion.

[Becky Quick]

And if look, not that we're billionaires, but you feel it when your net worth goes down, you think twice about making future purchases. It's just human nature and he doesn't.

[Joe Kernen]

Own all of it obviously. So it's not just that's the market capital of the company which also projected third quarter revenue growth and profit below expectations and said that capital expenditures for next year would be billions of dollars higher than it forecast. Back in September, the company's futures contracts jumped 15% from then more than a half a trillion dollars. But investors are showing concern about the risk Oracle is taking to build AI data centers. On a conference call with analysts, Oracle CEO floated the possibility of customers bringing their own chips into the company's facilities or maybe going up on a SpaceX rocket to put the chips into the data centers that are up. Circling the that's the next part of.

[Becky Quick]

This happen next Oracle shares were down 23% in November. That's their worst monthly performance since 2001. As of Wednesday's close, the stock is 32% below the record that it reached in September. But for the year it's still still up by 34%. And you're looking at that three year up by about 155%.

[Joe Kernen]

I'm doing the wrong.

[AT&T Business Announcer]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

The market. Okay. Yeah. Prices. Yeah. Market cap at the close was 635 billion. So it's down roughly 1211% today. So that is.

About $70 billion, is it not? It is market cap.

[Becky Quick]

We marvel at the way up, you marvel at the way down. But it is still up for the year pretty significantly too.

In the meantime, President Trump says that the United States has seized an oil tanker off of the coast of Venezuela as the White House tries to ratchet up pressure on the Venezuelan government, its president and the international drug trade. Attorney General Pam Bondi posting a video to X showing that rage. She said that the tanker has been used to transport oil from Venezuela and Iran and and has been sanctioned by the United States for years. When asked what would happen to the oil aboard the ship, President Trump said he thought the United States would keep it. In a statement, Venezuela's government said that the seizure constituted blatant theft and was an act of international piracy. And by the way, we should take a look at crude oil prices because it did have an impact yesterday on those prices. This morning though, prices are off by about 1.4%. So a bounce last night, but WTI this morning at 57.6, 3.

[Joe Kernen]

Check out the Shares of Cisco, which closed at 80 and a quarter yesterday, topping their previous high of 80, reached on March 27, 2000, at the height of the dot com era. That was the same day Cisco passed Microsoft to become the most valuable publicly traded company in the world. I remember it, it was like 600.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Let's see what it is.

[Becky Quick]

Here we are just over a quarter century later and they're back.

[Joe Kernen]

And they're back. And we pointed it out many times. And you know what other companies at 600 billion. General Electric, which is also on its way back, theoretically, given what we saw on the planet. Right.

[Steve Eisman]

Cheese will be next.

[Katie Kramer]

Coming up next, Steve Eisman, the famed big short investor in the financial crisis of 2008. He weighs in on monetary policy in 2025.

[Steve Eisman]

The only time the Fed really matters is when it's being very aggressive at cutting rates or very aggressive at raising rates. If it's just tinkering around the edges, which is what it's clearly doing, it's irrelevant.

[Katie Kramer]

Plus the artificial intelligence thesis that has him at the edge of his investing seat and the diagnosis that's ushered in a new chapter in his life.

[Steve Eisman]

It's given me a window into a world. This is one of those clubs that you would rather not be a member of.

[Katie Kramer]

A wide ranging conversation with Steve Eisman, right after this break.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

The heaviest metal credit card of all.

[Joe Kernen]

Time, rumored to be one of only.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the international space station.

And wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword.

[Joe Kernen]

It's a classic corporate power move.

[Steve Eisman]

But the real power move, having end.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

To end visibility on your most critical shipments.

[Joe Kernen]

FedEx, the new power move.

[Becky Quick]

We all take good care of the things that matter. Our homes, our pets, our cars. Are you doing the same for your brain? Acting early to protect brain health may help reduce the risk of dementia from conditions like Alzheimer's disease. Studies have found that up to 45% of dementia cases may be prevented or delayed. By managing risk factors, you can change make brain health a priority. Ask your doctor about your risk factors and for a cognitive assessment, learn [e-mail].

[AT&T Business Announcer]

And now a next level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease. So the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn [e-mail] 5G Network.

[Katie Kramer]

Welcome back. This is Squawk Pod from cnbc.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

JOE kernan, yes, sir, Television.

[Joe Kernen]

I know, I got it. I'm preparing for something after Sharon, what you're going to love.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'm excited.

[Joe Kernen]

There's a divergence when it comes to consumers credit and it's likely to continue in the next year. The case shaped economy, which we talk about all the time, having a direct impact on how and when consumers repay loans and make credit card payments. Sharon Epperson joins us now with more from her exclusive interview with the CEO of one of the nation's largest credit scoring companies. Like those people anyway, good morning.

[Sharon Epperson]

Credit scores measure a consumer's credit worthiness and they predict the likelihood they'll repay borrowed money. At Vantage Score, the average credit score is now 701 on a scale of 300 to 850, which is pretty healthy, says Vantage Score CEO Silvio Tavares. And yet it does not reveal the full picture of consumers credit health.

[Silvio Tavares]

For high income and middle income consumers, their late payments, they've actually dropped three of the last four months. But when you look at the lower income consumers for that same period, their delinquencies have increased. And so that's a cause for concern.

[Sharon Epperson]

More than 220 million consumers have a Vantage score. It's based on data from the three major credit bureaus, Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. Now, despite some economic uncertainty, a new report from TransUnion predicts overall delinquencies will stabilize next year for credit cards, auto loans and personal loans, while mortgage delinquencies will be slightly higher due to a modest rise in unemployment. Tavares says job security could continue to impact the divergence in credit health of higher and lower income consumers in the year ahead.

[Silvio Tavares]

As we look at 2026, the employment picture is going to be a key driver of consumers credit worthiness. There's been much said about factors that are potentially decreasing employment, like artificial intelligence. We don't actually see that in the numbers yet. And for the most part, employment. The employment picture is very good.

[Sharon Epperson]

He's optimistic that as interest rates come down, more people will be spending, creating more jobs and helping to improve overall consumer credit health.

[Becky Quick]

Joe all right.

[Joe Kernen]

What impact will yesterday's news have on consumer credit credit? I don't mean yesterday's newspaper, but the.

[Sharon Epperson]

Fed cut well, people are expecting Some people may be expecting to see an automatic decrease in their borrowing costs and that's not going to happen. But we are expecting to see as we have lower interest rates, that consumers will be able to pay more of their bills on time and that overall delinquencies will decline again. There's likely to be this divergence, this dichotomy between higher income consumers and lower income consumers in terms of how their ability about their ability to pay. But the key there is going to be whether interest rates continue to come down, particularly on some of those variable rate loans, but also on things like mortgages, which is the biggest part of the borrower's pie for the most part.

[Steve Eisman]

Yeah.

[Becky Quick]

And that's been the frustrating part because the 10 year has not come down the same way. The low end of the curve, the short end of the curve has.

[Katie Kramer]

Exactly.

[Sharon Epperson]

And even from when we started to see rates come down last year and we've seen a slight decline in credit card rates, we've actually seen mortgage rates tick up a little bit.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah, I mean 4.1%, no big deal. That historically is incredibly low. It's just we haven't seen the decline while the fed has cut 175 basis points.

[Sharon Epperson]

Exactly, exactly. And I think that's very frustrating to consumers. But what Tavares points out, and many people say that what's so important to focus on is really your credit score in terms of getting those lower rates. Don't expect, expect that you're going to see the automatic change because of what the Fed has done. But you raise your credit score, you definitely are going to see those lower rates. And it happens. It's amazing how quickly it can happen and how much of a difference it can make in terms of what you're having to pay back.

[Joe Kernen]

All right, thank you, Sharon.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Sure.

[Becky Quick]

We want to talk more about the markets and the trade with Steve Eisman. He is the host of the Real Eisman plus Playbook podcast. He's former senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. He is of course, very well known for making about $1 billion for successful short bets that he made against the housing market before the great financial.

[Steve Eisman]

That's an overstatement.

[Becky Quick]

That's what it says in AI. Maybe that tells you about how good AI is. That is what it says at the.

[Steve Eisman]

I know, but it's not right.

[Becky Quick]

How much was it?

[Steve Eisman]

I won't say, but it ain't that. Not even close.

[AT&T Business Announcer]

Half.

[Steve Eisman]

Not saying.

[Becky Quick]

Okay, good to know that AI is wrong, though. And Steve, Hallucination. Yeah, welcome. A big hallucination it's great to see you this morning.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Thank you.

[Becky Quick]

I know that you've had some medical issues that you've dealt with, and I know you want to talk about that first. Why don't we just start where things stand? How are you doing?

[Steve Eisman]

Thank you. Thank you. Appreciate being here. So in June, I was diagnosed with breast cancer, which. Breast cancer is not rare, but in a man, it's quite rare. It's less than 1% of all cases. And.

I'm actually fortunate because the way it was diagnosed was I had an irritation on my left breast, which, like any other man, I would completely ignore is a skin irritation. And I play squash with one of my best friends. I'm going to name him because you'll understand why. His name is Dr. Robert Gelfand. He's an oncologist, and we play squash every Wednesday. And in late June, we were playing, and we were in the locker room afterwards after we'd showered, and he looks at me and he said. He says, what's that? And I go, what's what? And he literally walks over to me and starts giving me a breast exam in the locker room. And after the breast exam, he says, I don't like what I'm seeing here. I'm sending you for a mammogram, like, now. I had a mammogram the next day, and I was diagnosed with breast cancer.

[Becky Quick]

That must be a huge shock.

[Steve Eisman]

And that was an utter shock. And, you know, since then, I've had a double mastectomy, and I've been on chemotherapy since August. And the chemo will end at the end of this year on December 29th. Then I'll go through radiation. You know, it's given me a window into a world. This is one of those clubs that you would rather not be a member of. But women face this all the time. The reason why I'm mentioning this is that, yes, it's rare for men, but it's not unheard of. And if you see something on your breast and you're a man, just check it out.

After the mammogram, the doctor said to me, your friend saved your life.

[Becky Quick]

How are you feeling and what's your prognosis?

[Steve Eisman]

So, you know, the chemo is. As anyone who's been through chemotherapy would tell you, it's a hell of a lot better today than it used to be. I'm on.

The way. It's done. There are two drugs. So first they give you a drug called Taxol, which is for 12 straight weeks. And then afterwards they put you on the more traditional.

It's called A.C. there are two drugs. It's the older chemotherapy, which is the harder chemotherapy, but it's the one where you would see in the movies people throwing their guts up. But today, because of the incredible advances that are made, number one, you don't have to use it as much. And they have all these drugs that make it much more tolerable. So the worst symptoms that I have is every now and then I have a little bit of nausea, which I take something for, and it's not. So it's very tolerable. And I'm tired. I guarantee you at three o' clock this afternoon I'll be napping. But other than being tired and not having as much energy as I normally would have, it's pretty tolerable. It's much. The advances that have been made, thank God that I'm a beneficiary of, are extraordinary.

[Becky Quick]

And your prognosis is good?

[Steve Eisman]

The prognosis for I'm on a regimen, as I said to you before, which is basically for a post menopausal woman. It's a long regimen. I'll have radiation in January and when it's over, you know, the cure rate is like close to 100%.

[Becky Quick]

That's fantastic. Steve, first of all, we hope you're feeling better. We can't wait till you get through this. And second of all, thank you for bringing this to people's attention.

[Steve Eisman]

I think it's an important service, my privilege to do so.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Have you talked about to a lot of other men who've gone through this?

[Steve Eisman]

You know, it's very funny you say that in my community. Every time someone said, hey, you know, Steve has breast cancer, literally like 100% of the people say, oh, you should talk to. And they all say the same, same one guy that they all know who also had breast cancer. And it's fine.

[Becky Quick]

Okay. You're still working and we're here to talk about what you see with the markets right now. We kind of teased it before as we're going to get your take on what the market is going to do post Fed. But you don't think the Fed is like the big decision.

[Steve Eisman]

I think this whole thing is laughable. I find with all due respect to Steve Liesman, who was on my podcast, the Realize of Playbooks, give it a quick plug.

Who does? That's a wonderful job commenting on the Fed. I mean, when you think about it, the only time the Fed really matters is when it's being very aggressive at cutting rates or very aggressive at raising rates. If it's just tinkering around the edges, which is what it's clearly doing, it's irrelevant.

[Becky Quick]

Although Liesman made the argument this morning that what they're doing with the balance sheet might be a little more important on the margin.

[Steve Eisman]

But, you know, is. Is what they're doing right now going to make you buy Palantir or not buy Palantir? It has no impact. You know, I think.

I mean, look, the thing that is by far the most important is the whole debate around AI. And I think what people are focusing too much.

On shows like this is, is it a bubble? Is it not a bubble? I think the debate that's going on X right now is actually much more important because it's much more foundational. So, look, I own a lot of these stocks too. Which ones? Like all of them, if you name the name, probably 90% of them I own. I've owned them for a while. I don't know. Palantir, Microsoft, Meta. I own them all and I've owned them for years. But the question really is, and I found this one commentator, a guy, his name is Gary Marcus, and he's on Twitter, I think he's a professor at nyu. And he's been making an argument now for years that LLM models, as they keep scaling, the large LLM models, as they keep scaling, which is the model that everybody has, will start to lose their efficaciousness. And when I started reading him nine months ago, he was the only one.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

When you say loser, what do you mean?

[Steve Eisman]

In other words, the improvement is going to slow as opposed to. As opposed to increase.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Okay. Which is against sort of the Sam Altman and Dan and everybody again, so everybody else.

[Steve Eisman]

And he was like a lone wolf. And I read him because he was the only one saying this. I figured, you know what?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'll.

[Steve Eisman]

Let me read this guy just so I know this is not my field of expertise. But he's different. Let me see what he has to say. So then ChatGPT5 comes out, and the immediate reaction by all these people who know a hell of a lot more than me is that the improvement in ChatGPT 5 is a hell of a lot less over 4 than 4 was over 3. And then all of a sudden, look, again, not my area of expertise, but I can notice trends in argument all of a sudden. Gary Marcus is not the lone wolf anymore. There was an interview maybe two weeks ago with Ilya Sutton Scaver, who was one of the founders of OpenAI. Now founded his own company. He comes down, he says exactly the same thing that that scaling LLM models dead end and that we have to return to basic research. And then a lot of other people are starting to say the same thing. Now I'm not here to panic people but if this argument, the Gary Marcus argument is right, you're going to start to see more and more people start to say this. And then at some point companies like Microsoft, if this becomes true, they're going to start buying fewer chips. This is the foundational argument that everybody should be focused on all the time. It's like the foundational argument before the great financial crisis where I eventually figured out that the entire mortgage fixed income.

[Joe Kernen]

Market.

[Steve Eisman]

Had rested on one assumption which was housing prices can't go down. And once that assumption got pulled out, the whole edifice collapsed. So if, look, I just run my own money these days so the amount of time it would take me to alter my portfolio would literally be before I walk out this door. But I'm not doing anything. I still own the same, I still own the same selling, I sell the same. I'm not doing anything, I'm not selling anything. But this argument makes me nervous.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Let me ask you.

[Steve Eisman]

And I pay attention to it every day.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

One of the things that Sam Altman would tell you if he was sitting here. I will channel him for a moment.

[Steve Eisman]

Yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Is he will say that a, he believes in the scaling laws.

[Joe Kernen]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This. But even beyond that believes that there's so much low hanging fruit to productize effectively the AI that's even been built thus far. Meaning the current user interface which we use is still just a blank screen, a chat little bot. And we ask, we ask it things it has not really been fully integrated into being able to genuinely answer your email, move your calendar around, buy products for you. All of that actually could happen to still today without almost doing anything to the large language models. And I don't know what you think that means for the longer.

[Steve Eisman]

I mean the other, the other part of the argument is look, they spent all. We have spent basically $500 billion at this point. You got to have a lot of products to justify all that money. We're going to be spending a trillion. You know, I read one commentator say that by 2030 we should, we need to have at least $2 trillion in revenue from all generated from all this stuff to justify it. So.

My only argument here is that the risks here are sort of intellectually more interesting than most people are talking about.

[Becky Quick]

What would it take for you to actually Change your portfolio.

[Steve Eisman]

I think you would start to hear on X first words like so and so is starting to think about buying fewer chips. I mean it's all a vicious, it's all a virtuous cycle right now. Once somebody comes out and says that's an important player that.

The scaling, I don't need to buy so many more chips because.

Somebody else, somebody like that who has to come out and say that the scaling is starting to lose its efficaciousness. So this argument that I talked about gains even more force. And so I don't need as many chips.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What do you make of the, I mean, part of this is such a long term game for a lot of these folks in terms of just getting enough energy to actually be able to build the data centers. By the way, there's now a new discussion. If you spend time on X in other places and Elon Musk has talked about this, about effectively putting the data centers in space, you may think that's crazy.

[Steve Eisman]

I don't know. I wouldn't say it's crazy.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But you put them in space because there's more energy from the sun. You can, can actually power it from, on a solar basis. Completely from the sun.

[Steve Eisman]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And then by the way, it has an automatic, effectively cooling drain because the flip side of a satellite is freezing.

[Steve Eisman]

Sounds great. I don't know if you could do that.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I don't know.

[Steve Eisman]

I don't want to know.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'm just saying, I'm a bank guy, I get that. All I'm saying is what did you say?

[Joe Kernen]

What could go wrong?

[Steve Eisman]

I mean, look, the other, the other binding constraint constrained on the group is clearly power. I mean, what it takes to build all this power, I mean people just think, oh, so we'll build power. It takes years. So the other thing that I would just say, and this is more of a technical problem, is we should all pray for mild winters over the next five years because if we have some really bad winters, the grid is going to get very stressed.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah. Steve, first of all, thank you for coming in. Thank you for sharing your story and please come back soon because I want to dig in deeper on this AI story with you.

[Steve Eisman]

My pleasure.

[Becky Quick]

Okay, we appreciate it.

[Joe Kernen]

Thank you.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Great to see you.

[Steve Eisman]

Thank you.

[Katie Kramer]

Next on Squawk Pod. Senator Elizabeth Warren has been a noted critic of Fed Chairman Jay Powell. Now she finds herself defending him and his role as the independent head of the nation's central bank.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

And Donald Trump doesn't want that. He wants to be able to control it, even if he's creating tariff chaos. He wants the Fed to juice the economy.

[Katie Kramer]

Stay tuned. We'll be right back.

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[Steve Eisman]

What made you confident that you could.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Do something that hadn't been done before?

[Becky Quick]

I have no fear of failure.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice.

[Becky Quick]

Think about what your boss's boss needs.

[Katie Kramer]

Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come to just trusting yourself. Life is short, and you just gotta.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Katie Kramer]

We're back. This is Squawkpod.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You're watching Squawkbox on cnbc. I'm Andrew Ossorkin along with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick.

[Becky Quick]

Time to bring in our next guest, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is the lead Democrat on the Banking Committee. And Senator Warren, thank you being with us this morning from your position on the Banking Committee, thought we might start with the Federal Reserve. What you thought about what happened yesterday and maybe more importantly, what you think about this overall conversation about who will take over the Federal Reserve next, who the next chairman will be. I know in the past you've had criticism for Jay Powell. You've called him dangerous at some points. But I think you're also concerned about what comes next.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Yeah. So, look, I'm glad to see the Fed lower interest rates. I've been pushing for it for. For years. It helps bring down costs for families so that they can are more likely to be able to afford a mortgage, so that they can pay less on car loans, so they can pay less on credit cards. But don't make any mistake. They didn't lower interest rates because they think the news is just fabulous on inflation. They lowered interest rates because they expressed a lot of concern about the job market. And Jay Powell in fact, talked yesterday about whether or not there's actual negative growth. That's how they put it, contraction overall in the labor market. And you know, the long term implications of that, both at the family level for people not having jobs, not having job availability. We're seeing less churn, people leaving their jobs because they found something better instead, people hanging onto their jobs. That all means a lot more pressure on families. So the news yesterday, look, I'd like for it to be better news, but right now there's still a lot of red flashing lights about this economy and the Fed's response to it.

[Becky Quick]

Does that mean you, you'd like to see the Fed cut interest rates even faster? You agree with the President and Steven Myron that they should have cut 50 basis points yesterday?

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

You know, I actually, I keep looking at this as why don't they? And the answer is Donald Trump. He's the one who has caused so much chaos with the tariffs that the Fed has said we can't. In fact, Jerome Powell said in July they would have started cutting interest rates substantially back in March. Only the President's work on the tariffs and the kind of economic chaos he was causing had caused them to delay and to delay and to delay. And another way to understand that is what the President's been doing on tariffs is not just a tax in the sense of driving prices up. It's a tax in the sense of keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would be. But of course, that goes to the other question you asked, and that is about the independence of the Fed.

You rightly point out. I have had no problem criticizing Jerome Powell when I think he's wrong. And I thought he's been wrong a lot. But I think it's important to have an independent Fed. And that's something that's shared on both sides of the aisle. Republicans and Democrats have said that if the President just turns around and puts his own guy in there, puts in a sock puppet, then one of the consequences of that is we will lose one more part of our economy that we've had literally for decades that keeps it working better because we've got a Fed that at least is making its best efforts to make decisions based independently on how they read the data, how they see the economy unfolding. And Donald Trump doesn't want that. He wants to be able to control it. So, for example, even if he's creating tariff chaos, he wants the Fed to juice the economy, and that's going to be a real problem.

[Becky Quick]

These three leading candidates at this part are Warsh and Kevin. Warsh, Kevin. Kevin Hassett and Waller are the three leading candidates. Do you think any of them are sock puppets?

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Well, are you kidding? I mean, these are people. One of them works directly for the President. The President controls his job. He doesn't want to give that up. The President is looking for someone who will do his bidding. Now, I very much hope that Republicans will speak up about the dangers of having a Fed chairman who is controlled by the President of the United States. So far, the Republicans have spoken generally about independence of the Fed, but they've been willing to bend the knee to Donald Trump over and over. So I think this is going to be one more moment. Are Republicans really willing to stand up for the principles they say they believe in, like an independent Fed? Are they just going to say whatever Donald Trump wants is what they'll go along with?

[Becky Quick]

Kevin Hassett is the one who works directly for the President. But you think all three of them are equally.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Look, I am most worried about Kevin Hassett. So when you say equally. No, I am not. They are not equal. Kevin Hassett is the biggest concern on that list because he has made clear that he will do whatever the President wants done. He will say whatever the President wants said. And that is the very definition of a sock puppet.

[Becky Quick]

I mean, I will tell you, Kevin Hassett's been on this program a long time. He himself said that he won't do that. He will maintain the independence of the Fed. That's what he said on the Sunday talks about circuit this weekend.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Sure. Remind me when he last disagreed with Donald Trump publicly in any way whatsoever.

[Becky Quick]

I think since going into the administration, his job has been to come on and present the President's view. So I hear you on that. He has not disagreed with him to this point.

[Joe Kernen]

That's not common just to this administrator. And I was going to say, Senator, that it's not just Kevin Hassett. I don't think you can find. It'd be hard pressed to find anyone who's willing to in the administration. But, but then I, you know, maybe.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Maybe it's a matter within the administration, but it happens.

[Joe Kernen]

What happened in the Biden administration. I mean, you remember how many members of his administration said he's sharp as attack. Come on.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Do you think that Jerome Powell wouldn't disagree with Joe Biden?

[Joe Kernen]

I mean, no, I'm not talking about. In General, in general, you do have people working for you when you're president who, if they go off, they, you know, if, if they're not going to.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Agree with you, your, your job.

[Joe Kernen]

And maybe more so with Donald Trump.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

We're not talking about Secretary of the treasury, somebody who's part of the president's team. We're talking about who should be the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

[Joe Kernen]

Right. But he's not yet. Right.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

And how you pick someone to be chairman of the Federal Reserve. And usually, at least as best I can recall, that's not fair. From within your inner circle.

[Joe Kernen]

Sure.

[Becky Quick]

That has, I hear what you're saying. What you're saying is when Janet Yellen moved, she moved from the Fed to the Treasury.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

I mean, not from the Treasury.

[Becky Quick]

Are concerned about the, are you concerned about the revolving door status though, that people move back and forth between the two?

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Look, as I said, yes, I am worried about any revolving door here. I am worried about a Fed that loses the last vestige of independence. And the reason for that is that there is real value to our economy from having an independent Fed, from believing whether you agree with them on monetary policy or not, from believing that they are making their best independent decisions about what would be good for the economy, that they are carefully evaluating every shred of data that they can get their hands on and that they are not making decisions because the price president would like to juice the economy to improve his popularity among the people. And I hear you, if we lose that, that costs everybody in this country. It's not just a throwaway. It matters.

[Becky Quick]

I hear you on that point. I don't think there's anybody arguing that the Fed shouldn't be an independent entity.

[Joe Kernen]

There's a lot of reasons to want to boost the economy, though, to Senator, I mean, all presidents want to boost the economy. It's just you don't want to run too hot to where you rekindle inflation.

[Becky Quick]

Senator, why don't we. Oh, sorry, go ahead.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

No, that's all right.

[Becky Quick]

Why don't, why don't we talk a little bit about the Netflix Warner Brothers deal or at least Warner Brothers Discovery, where that stands at this point with Netflix. I know you weren't a fan of that. You said that that looked like an anti Monopoly nightmare. Now you've got Paramount, Skydance back in the bidding. What do you, what do you think of that?

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

I think it's a bigger nightmare. You know, look, we all remember there are three parts to this deal, kind of three entities. There are the workers who actually pitch the Movies and the screenwriters and the makeup artists and all the people who make the movies. Those people do the work. There are the customers who buy the product, and then there are the investors who keep the thing going. And what's happening right now is Netflix or Paramount are saying, we want to buy Warner Brothers and we want to go, in the case of Netflix, from being the first biggest streamer, buying up our competition, the fourth biggest streamer, and then be the biggest, biggest, biggest. And they're telling their investors, we're going to make buckets of money by doing that. And you got to stop and say, how are they planning to make buckets of money from doing that? And is there anybody who thinks that by being a bigger corporation they'll make better movies? You know, no. What they want to do is they want to squeeze the people who do the work, the people who make the movies. They want to find ways to make fewer movies. They want the people who pitch the movies to have fewer places to go and they want to be able to charge customers more. And that is the heart of why we have antitrust laws, is that we say, no, you don't get to acquire your competitors, wipe out another element of competition, and then turn around and make money off your enhanced position by squeezing your workers and squeezing your customers. And that's why I have a problem with both of these deals. One of them because of the streaming aspects, one of them because of the moviemaking aspects.

[Becky Quick]

Do you think that there is going to be rule of law when it comes to looking at these deals? Are you worried about the influence that anybody's going to put into this or.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

I like your very gentle anybody. For the first time that I can recall in American history, a big merger has been talked about, has been proposed. It's quite controversial and remember, controversial on the Democratic side and the Republican side. And the President of the United States has stepped up and said that he plans to be part of the decision making. And then he steps in and describes one subset of the deal and says, and here's what he thinks should happen to cnn. If that doesn't make the hair on the back of your neck stand up, I don't know what does. Because that's really the President of the United States, it appears, saying, you got to make a deal with me. And that deal with me might involve a million dollar, a plate dinner and a gold encrusted ballroom. It might involve buying crypto coins. It might involve getting rid of a pesky news outfit that I don't like. Shoot. It might involve making movies that only fly?

Nobody knows. But what we do know is that the president of the United States should not be the one who is the decision maker here. This should be a straightforward application of the law. Gather the facts independently, look at the effect on competition, apply the law. And I believe in the case of both of these mergers, they're pretty clearly illegal under, under antitrust law and they should be stopped.

[Becky Quick]

If they're not stopped, will you push to try and undo the mergers down the road?

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Absolutely. Because competition is what makes our economy work. Competition. This whole idea that markets are a place where consumers are getting the best deal, where workers are getting the best deal, and where investors are getting the best deal.

That's the magic of our system. And antitrust law, I know, can be a very pesky impediment for these multibillion dollar companies that don't want to grow by coming up with a better product, don't want to grow by offering better customer service. Instead want to grow by buying their competition and shutting down that alternative bidder for the screenplay or that alternative bidder for the customer's business. That that antitrust law is there to make these markets work better for all of us. And that's true if we were talking about aluminum or we're talking about making movies. We should all embrace antitrust laws and block these mergers.

[Becky Quick]

Senator, thank you for your time.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

You bet.

[Katie Kramer]

And that is Squawk Pod for today. Thank you as always for listening. Squawkbox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Please follow Squawkpod Wherever you get your podcasts, tell a friend to follow too. Have a great Thursday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

[Steve Eisman]

We are clear.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Thanks, guys.

[Steve Eisman]

What made you confident that you could.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Do something that hadn't been done before?

[Becky Quick]

I have no fear of failure.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice.

[Becky Quick]

Think about about what your boss's boss needs.

[Katie Kramer]

Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

[Senator Elizabeth Warren]

Life is short, and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.