Squawk Pod – "A Festivus Miracle: AI, Tech, & Crypto in 2026"

Date: December 23, 2025
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Summary by Topic with Timestamps

Overview

This lively pre-holiday episode of Squawk Pod focuses on seismic shifts expected in the AI, tech, and crypto sectors as we enter 2026. Anchors Joe Kernen and Andrew Ross Sorkin are joined by notable guests including Chris Kelly (former Facebook General Counsel) and Anthony Pompliano (crypto investor), offering perspectives on AI commoditization, upcoming major industry deals, and the evolution of crypto and prediction markets. The show also discusses topical business headlines, ranging from big pharma's new weight-loss pill, changes in the bourbon industry, and NFL franchise moves.

Major Topics & Key Discussion Points

1. Big Pharma & Consumer Shifts

[02:29–03:57]

• Novo Nordisk & Wegovy Pill Approval
  • Novo Nordisk’s oral form of its weight loss drug, Wegovy, has gained FDA approval, offering a cheaper, needle-free alternative to current injectables (semaglutide)—potentially shaking up the obesity management market.
  • Joe Kernen comments on the appeal: “I’m not going to use a needle to do it. I was thinking, wow… just take a pill.”
  • Competition: Eli Lilly’s weight loss pill could be approved as soon as March.
  • Hosts debate whether taking such a pill is ‘cheating’ and discuss broader health effects.

2. Geopolitics & Energy Markets

[05:32–08:32]

• US Blockade on Venezuelan Oil
  • President Trump orders a blockade of ships near Venezuela to pressure President Maduro.
  • Joe: “It’s a very activist role towards controlling the Western Hemisphere.”
  • Discussion on the ripple effects for Cuba and US–Greenland relations, linking to new military ambitions (Trump-class battleships) and pressure on defense contractors.
• Defense Industry and Shareholder Returns
  • White House may restrict dividends/buybacks for defense companies to prioritize weapons production.
  • Joe emphasizes the need for balance: “Return of capital… is perfectly proper,” but concedes that defense may be a special case.

3. American Life & Consumption Trends

[13:13–15:17]

• Kansas City Chiefs Stadium Move
  • The NFL’s Chiefs plan to cross the state line into Kansas, marked by financial incentives and a new stadium slated for 2031.
  • Spirited regional banter between the hosts: “Did you know that Missouri and Kansas were on opposite sides in the Civil War?”
• Jim Beam & Declining Bourbon Market
  • Jim Beam halts Kentucky bourbon production for a year amid falling US alcohol consumption and international trade headwinds.

4. AI in 2026: Commoditization, Consolidation, Efficiency

Panel: Steve Kovac (CNBC), Chris Kelly (ex-Facebook) [17:52–28:46]

The Year Ahead in AI

• Commoditization of LLMs
  [18:06–21:38] (Steve Kovac)
  • AI labs (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Apple) are racing towards similar capabilities, commoditizing large language models (LLMs).
  • Big Tech (Apple, Microsoft): Rather than building LLMs in-house, they're investing in or partnering with leading labs (e.g., Apple integrating third-party models in Siri; Microsoft’s investments in Anthropic and OpenAI).
  • User experience will matter more than the underlying model: “It’s that product layer on top of it that is really going to matter, guys.” — Steve Kovac [20:44]

Guest Segment: Chris Kelly on AI Market Structure

• War for Talent & Efficient AI [23:57–25:57]
  • Kelly forecasts ongoing talent acquisition and the rise of new players focused on resource efficiency, not just scale.
  • “We run our brains on 20 watts… I think that finding efficiency is going to be one of the key things.”
• Open Source & China’s Role [25:18–25:46]
  • Meta’s Llama model and Chinese entrants will diversify market leadership, especially if new hardware (Nvidia GPUs in China) gains traction.
  • “You'll see a number of Chinese players come to the fore...”
• Bubble or Boom? [25:57–26:39]
  • Kelly acknowledges an efficiency-driven correction alongside transformative breakthroughs: “There is a bit of a bubble around… more GPUs, more power consumption… I think that drive towards efficiency is going to be very real.”
• M&A, Regulation, and Industry Titans [26:39–28:42]
  • Major deals (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) are possible, especially for firms demonstrating superior efficiency/performance in AI.
  • Some “hundreds of billions” dollar-size deals could materialize, but the necessity for profitability will weigh on hyper-valued players.

Memorable Quotes

• “If you can take an operating system that you have going on with your LLMs and think about how to make that a lot more effective and efficient… everyone’s going to take the opportunity.” — Chris Kelly [27:24]

5. Crypto & The Race for the 'Everything Exchange'

With Anthony Pompliano [31:06–36:55]

• Coinbase's Expansion [31:06–33:32]
  • Coinbase’s acquisition of The Clearing Company is part of its quest to become an “everything exchange”—integrating stocks, crypto, prediction markets, and more.
  • Pompliano: "They're going after this everything exchange. They basically want you to be able to buy public stocks, crypto prediction markets...everything on one exchange." [32:08]
  • Legacy and fintech brokerages (Robinhood, traditional exchanges) are converging on this space from different directions; winner will offer the best user experience.
• Bitcoin’s Performance & Volatility [33:32–35:39]
  • Despite high hopes (price targets of $150k+), Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen. Over the last three years, Bitcoin is up nearly 300%.
  • “One of the aspects of bitcoin that people aren’t talking about is that the volatility of bitcoin has actually been coming down.” [33:55]
  • Possible new market regime: with lower volatility, drawdowns soften, but so do upside 'blow-off tops'.
• AI, Crypto, and the Future of Finance [36:01–36:55]
  • Pompliano envisions a future where AI serves as the growth engine for financial firms, while crypto (especially stablecoins and Bitcoin) acts as a wealth ‘defense’ mechanism on firm balance sheets.
  • “I think that this combination of these two technologies is really where finance is going. And you see it from the startups, but also you see it from the large firms like BlackRock...” [36:55]

6. Lighter Moments & Memorable Quotes

• Festivus, Christmas Adam, & Donuts [01:48, 21:58, 22:00]
  • Playful debate about holiday terminology and traditions (Festivus vs. Christmas Adam).
  • Sorkin admits: “Oh, you know I’m a Christmas loving Jew. Absolutely.” [22:00]
• On Indulgence
  • Sorkin on donuts: “I went to town. I mean, it wasn’t just like, could I have half of one or one and a half or maybe two...” [03:57]
  • On sugar, fat and carbs: “Mainlining the sugar, basically.” [11:53]
• Pop Culture Sidebar
  • Hosts hype “Marty Supreme”—the fictional blockbuster, marveling at its marketing prowess. [37:14–37:24]

Highlighted Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Notable Quote/Insight | |------------|--------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 02:29 | Novo Nordisk Wegovy Pill | “It’s cheaper, there’s no needles.” — Joe Kernen | | 20:44 | AI Commoditization | “It’s that product layer…that’s going to matter, guys.” — Steve Kovac | | 25:31 | AI Bubble/Efficiency | “There is a bit of a bubble…that drive towards efficiency is going to be very real.” — Chris Kelly | | 32:08 | Everything Exchange — Crypto | “They want you to be able to buy public stocks, crypto…everything on one exchange.” — Anthony Pompliano | | 33:55 | Bitcoin Volatility | “The volatility of bitcoin has actually been coming down.” — Pompliano |

Conclusion & Takeaways

This "Festivus/Christmas Adam" edition of Squawk Pod combines market commentary, sharp industry analysis, and light-hearted holiday banter. Key takeaways:

• AI’s Future: The age of proprietary, branded LLMs may be ending as they become commodities. Marketplace differentiation will hinge on user experience and efficiency. Major consolidation is likely, with deep-pocketed players eyeing strategic acquisitions.
• Crypto’s Expansion: Exchanges like Coinbase are racing to build multi-asset “everything” platforms, betting on a future without clear boundaries between asset classes.
• Bitcoin: While price excitement is muted compared to past cycles, reduced volatility is a sign of market maturation.
• Cultural Trends: Shifting attitudes—towards weight loss, alcohol, and even holiday traditions—frame a year where innovation increasingly meets lifestyle.

The episode delivers perspective for investors, business leaders, and culture watchers alike—closing out 2025 with humor, candor, and critical insight into what’s brewing for 2026.