A Night for Democrats: Zohran Mamdani & The Party’s Future 11/5/25

Summary

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Squawk Pod: "A Night for Democrats: Zohran Mamdani & The Party’s Future"

Date: November 5, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod recaps a pivotal election night for Democrats, with a focus on the election of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as Mayor of New York City. Hosted by Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin, the discussion explores the implications for the Democratic Party’s direction, economic impacts—particularly for New York’s wealthy—and the broader national political landscape. The show features insights from CNBC's Wealth Editor Robert Frank and MAGA donor/tech investor Chris Buskirk, alongside a look at the looming Supreme Court battle over President Trump's use of emergency powers for tariffs.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Election Night Results & Immediate Reactions

[01:16–07:51]

• Zohran Mamdani’s Win in New York City:

  • Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist and immigrant, defeated Andrew Cuomo with over 50% of the vote.
  • The uniqueness of NYC’s political climate is highlighted; while his win’s meaningful locally, its national significance is debated.

  Notable Quote:

  • “New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant. So hear me, President Trump… To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us.” —Joe Kernen ([02:53])

• Democratic Sweep in Other States:

  • Mikie Sherrill elected as Governor of New Jersey, Abigail Spanberger as the first female Governor of Virginia.
  • California’s ballot initiatives reinforced Democratic strength.

  Notable Quote:

  • “We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship.” —Spanberger victory clip ([04:31])

• Assessment of Results:

  • Becky Quick contends it was a "pass/fail test" for Democrats in strongholds, and they passed.
  • The hosts debate if these wins indicate a leftward shift, or merely consolidation in blue areas.

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2. Implications for Democratic Party & National Politics

[05:57–09:20]

• Progressive Direction or Centrist Retreat?

  • Quick wonders if the party will follow the far-left or tack centrist for 2026.
  • Kernen cautions that “policies never work” for progressives, saying attempts to help the most vulnerable often fail in execution.

  Notable Quote:

  • “Small government, maximum freedom, low taxation, private sector builds wealth... That’s how you get prosperity. I don't see how Trump and Mamdani, you can say them in the same sentence..." —Joe Kernen ([08:01])

• Risk of Increased Division:

  • Sorkin worries about increased business flight from NYC if policies become unfriendly, or even if there’s only a perception of such moves.
  • Discussion of a potential leftist primary challenge to Chuck Schumer from AOC.

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3. Business & Economic Consequences – Wealth Flight Debate

[22:46–26:24]

• Robert Frank’s Analysis:

  • The wealthy have returned post-pandemic, but NYC's share of national millionaires is declining, with states like Florida, Texas gaining.
  • The top 1% (and especially the top 200 earners) pay a disproportionately large amount of city and state taxes.
  • Even small departures of high earners have outsized fiscal effects.

  Notable Quote:

  • “If you have one person who makes $1 million leave, you have to have 10 people who make $100,000 replace that person.” —Robert Frank ([24:27])

• Policy Risks:

  • Not just tax increases, but the potential for NYC to become "collateral damage" in the Mamdani-Trump rivalry (e.g., federal infrastructure funding at risk).

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4. The “Aristo-populism” and Right-wing Response – Chris Buskirk Interview

[27:31–36:33]

• Buskirk’s Take on Elections:

  • NYC mayoral race seen as locally significant, less so for the nation.
  • Argues the leftward drift in NYC wouldn't work in states like Michigan or Arizona.
  • Critiques Democratic “Marxism”; posits that only “innovation economies” resolve prosperity gaps.

  Notable Quotes:

  • “He’s openly embracing Marxism. And while that might work in Manhattan, I’m not so sure that that works in Michigan or Wisconsin or Arizona.” —Chris Buskirk ([27:31])
  • “If you try and create prosperity by taxing it, you will not create any prosperity at all. And you will immiserate millions of people as we’ve seen all over the world…” —Chris Buskirk ([30:00])

• Populism and Party Strategies:

  • Buskirk dismisses “aristo-populism” as terminology, but underscores the critical role of energizing the Republican base.
  • He praises Oren Cass’ Cost of Thriving Index as a useful diagnostic but rejects higher taxes as the answer.

• Exodus from NYC Prediction:

  • Predicts money and talent will continue leaving for Florida and other states:
    “The Realtor of the year for the Florida Realtors association is likely to be the mayor elect of New York City.” —Chris Buskirk ([31:02])

• Policy Solutions:

  • Consistently advocates for innovation, lower taxes, and private sector competition as economic drivers.

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5. Supreme Court and Trump's Emergency Tariffs

[36:33–45:17]

• Upcoming Supreme Court Case:

  • The legality of President Trump's use of emergency powers to enact wide-reaching tariffs is under challenge.
  • The administration argues for executive latitude in the name of national security and foreign policy.
  • The case’s outcome could force the return of $90 billion in tariffs, with broad business implications.

  Notable Discussion:

  • Only small and mid-sized companies are party to the challenge, as large corporates are wary of political retaliation.
  • Experts contemplate if the Court might split decisions depending on the “emergency” cited: e.g., fentanyl vs. rare earth minerals.

  Notable Quote:

  • “What the administration is saying is, look, the President deserves a lot of deference here because this is national security, because this is foreign policy. Those things are the president’s remit…” —Eamon Javers ([44:36])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Kernen on partisanship:
  “It’s like an enemy of my enemy. They’ll ride whatever horse they can that repudiates Trump, including a Democratic socialist.” ([06:30])

• Sorkin on giving new leaders a chance:
  “As a New Yorker... I don’t agree with everything this mayor... says or plans to do. But I want to give him a chance and I hope for the sake of the city, he’s able to…” ([12:19])

• Frank on the city's new reality:
  “New York has become a place for the wealthy, and for everyone else, it’s incredibly difficult to live here... $3,700 median rent is getting to be unsustainable.” ([25:10])

• Buskirk on the core of prosperity:
  “You cannot tax your way into prosperity. Emphatically not taxation. It is innovation…” ([33:03])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Election results breakdown & implications: [01:16–09:20]
• Wealth exodus and tax debate with Robert Frank: [22:46–26:24]
• Chris Buskirk interview (MAGA/Right-wing perspective): [27:31–36:33]
• Supreme Court tariff showdown explained: [36:33–45:17]

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Tone & Language

The episode is spirited and opinionated, staying true to the direct, conversational style of the Squawk Box team. Joe Kernen is forceful with his (small-government, anti-progressive) views; Sorkin plays the centrist, urging pragmatic optimism; Quick drills into practical and electoral consequences. Guests Frank and Buskirk provide analytic depth — the former focused on economic data, the latter on political and investment philosophy.

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Useful for Non-Listeners?

Absolutely. This summary delivers a comprehensive walkthrough of the episode’s debates and analyses, highlights its defining moments, and pinpoints the broader stakes at play for politics, policy, and business after a landmark Democratic election night.

Transcript

[Announcer]

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[Joe Kernen]

Level moment from ATT Business.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment.

[Joe Kernen]

Of pillows and they need to be.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

There in time for International Sleep day.

[Joe Kernen]

You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn [e-mail] 5G Network.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Bring in show music please.

[Katie Kramer]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod Election Day, the morning after the Big Apple has a Democratic socialist mayor elect New York Tonight.

[Joe Kernen]

You have delivered a mandate for change.

[Katie Kramer]

What an off year can tell us about national politics.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Fascinating to see what took place. Democrats notching some key wins, what it.

[Katie Kramer]

Means for the man not on any ballot, President Donald Trump.

[Becky Quick]

This was a pass fail test though they passed.

[Katie Kramer]

And how new leadership impacts a certain group of voters. New York's richest residents will catch up with CNBC's wealth editor Robert Frank.

[Robert Frank]

If you have one person who makes a million dollars leave, you have to have 10 people who make $100,000 replace that person.

[Katie Kramer]

On the other side of the Democrats 2025 victories, a MAGA donor and tech investor, Chris Buskirk. He's close to Vice President J.D. vance and he weighs in on the political skill of New York's Zoran Mamdani.

[Announcer]

He's openly embracing Marxism. And while that might work in Manhattan, I'm not so sure that that works in Michigan or Wisconsin or Arizona.

[Katie Kramer]

Plus the looming Supreme Court showdown over whether the president can use emergency powers to enact tariffs. Oral arguments are today. Are Eamon Javers in Washington on the business response?

[Producer/Technical Director]

Yeah, I think you're seeing a decision by big companies that confronting this administration is not a good use of their resources.

[Katie Kramer]

It is Wednesday, November 5, 2025. Squawkpod begins right now.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Stand Becky by in 3, 2, 1. Cue it, please.

[Becky Quick]

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on cnbc. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

[Joe Kernen]

New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant. So hear me, President Trump, when I say this. To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us.

[Becky Quick]

And of course, Andrew, we are thinking through everything we saw with the Election day results.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Let's, let's get everybody up to speed. It was a remarkable evening. Fascinating to see what took place. Democrats notching some key wins on election Day. Democratic Socialist Zoran Mondame is elected mayor of New York. He defeated independent Andrew Cuomo about 90% of the expected votes in. Mondame has more than 50% to Cuomo's roughly 42. And even if you were to factor in the SLIWA vote, it looks like Zoran Mandani would have still won. This was a tough fight and this is a tough state, but I know.

[Becky Quick]

You, New Jersey, and I love you.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Democratic Representative Mikey Sherrill elected New Jersey's next governor, beating Republican Jackson Citarelli. In Virginia, you had former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger set to become the state's first female governor, defeating the state's Republican lieutenant governor.

[Becky Quick]

We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said that Republicans lost yesterday because he wasn't on the ballot and because of the ongoing government shutdown. I don't know what your reaction to all of this is. I'm fascinated by just how big the win was for Zoran Mandani. I thought it would be closer. I'm fascinated by some of the polymarket results in terms of how, how frankly close these elections were, but how the polymarket wasn't close. I don't know what that says about anything. And I also now wonder what this means for the Democratic Party and whether this is going to be considered. We didn't talk about California, by the way, as well in terms of what happened there.

[Becky Quick]

California pretty strongly, too, by better than 60% on the ballot. Look, this was a pass fail test, though. They passed because these were all Democratic strong strongholds where these things happened. This was the anticipated result. So there weren't any upsets. Democrats passed the pass fail test in this situation. I do wonder what it means for next year with the midterms and which route the Democratic Party is going to take in terms of whether they're going to follow the far left progressive wing or try and follow a more moderate, centrist attack. When it comes to how they handle.

[Joe Kernen]

National elections, midterms are always bad. Just is it going to be worse than normal or not? I thought Polymarket was incredibly good. I mean, it was 90 10. It never got anywhere except 9010 from him. That never was any question that he was going to win. And it never got more than nine, really. 90 10. And maybe it was 84, 15 in New Jersey for a little while, but there was never any waffling. I mean, I didn't wait up for any of this. And, you know, in my, my son was like, what he was worried about was down in Virginia and that guy with the, the tweets about killing, you know, someone's family. And he won. He won, too. I think it's a little weird, Andrew, because, you know, I saw some takes on CNN and David Axelrod, and so they were giddy and gloating, and it's just weird that, I mean, they know better than to think that this is a great outcome in New York City and for the Democratic Party to move that far left. But anything that repudiates Trump, it's like an enemy of my enemy. It's like they'll take, they'll ride whatever horse they can that repudiates Trump, including a Democratic social. Then, you know, if you sleep with the.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Joe, Joe, look, I'm not, I'm not disputing that, you know, my view. I don't, I don't like the extreme sides of, of either party. I would like, I'd much prefer something in the middle, but the truth is, I think there's a lot of people. It's actually kind of like the question that Norah o' Donnell asked the president, which is to say that, you know, she said to him about Zoram Dami. Is he the left version of you? There were a lot of people in the Republican Party that did not want President Trump ultimately to win either, but ultimately fell in line in the same way and have continued to support him. And so we have this sort of unique moment in our country where I think there's people on both sides who think, who think both sides are to some extent extreme. I know you don't think that that's.

[Joe Kernen]

The case with it in a different way. I don't. The litmus test for me is communism and, and big government. And free things and, you know, populist.

[Becky Quick]

And populism has run rampant for.

[Joe Kernen]

Well, there's a populist. You know, we're going to have a. Actually, the, one of the founders of Aristo Populism is going to be on later today, Chris Buzkirk, who's with omid Malik in 1789. And we'll talk all about that. I mean, it's weird to let them eat cake. Aristo populism, Warren Cass, people like that, where billionaires can try, you know, to help people that need help. But I always come back to, I've seen progressives try to help the people that they want to help. The policies never work. They never work. They never, ever work. And the people they're trying to help end up worse off. So it's, it's how you approach things. You know, Andrew, Small government, maximum freedom, low taxation, private sector builds wealth and, you know, builds prosperity. So I don't see how Trump and Mom, dummy, you can say them in the same sentence. But that's, that's, you know, it doesn't, the comparisons don't hold. Except that Democrats think Trump or the left thinks Trump is extreme. He's extreme. And there's tariffs and there's things like that. But at least he's, you know, deep down, you know, believes in capitalism and believes in the private sector. Hopefully they're believing the private sector so much that the government's investing in the private sector.

[Becky Quick]

Questions about how Wall street is going to react to this, how business in General.

[Joe Kernen]

We had 12 years of, we had.

[Becky Quick]

More than 50% increase in business.

[Joe Kernen]

We had a disaster for we had, you know, the blah, blah, blah for eight years and then Eric Adams for four. The city's fine. So, you know, I wonder how divided.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

The city is going to become as a result of all this. And that's what I'm concerned about. Both the divide that I think is going to exist in the city, frankly, I think the divide that's going to get even wider just in the country, writ large and for the city. I live in New York City. I worry about, we keep talking about whether billionaires are going to leave the city. I worry more about whether businesses are going to leave the city. If in fact the mayor is able to, you know, increase corporate, corporate taxes, forget about, forget about wealth taxes, Corporate taxes unto itself, given, given how high those are ultimately going to go, could create a real issue in the city. And I'm not even sure he has to be able to enact them unto itself, meaning even if he's, even if he's unable to do it, even just talking about it as an idea, as something that he's trying to pursue, I think will scare off companies that were ever considering moving to New York and will scare off companies that are maybe in New York considering whether to move or whether to move more employees to other places. And that, I think, is actually going to be a real issue.

[Joe Kernen]

Well, I think Chuck Schumer's great fear and trepidation about a primary from the left, from aoc, that's going to happen and the whole, you know, government shutdown, everything else that Republicans say, that's why he needed to do that. I think it's going to be a senator aoc.

[Becky Quick]

So I do wonder if this.

[Joe Kernen]

So get ready for that.

[Becky Quick]

Too much worse, the government shut down because the Democrats will look at last night's results and say, hey, we don't need to fold or cave anytime soon.

[Joe Kernen]

They're going to. It's going to be this.

[Becky Quick]

Hopefully it happens.

[Joe Kernen]

It's going to be this week.

[Becky Quick]

Hopefully it happens this week.

[Joe Kernen]

But I don't think this.

[Becky Quick]

I did hear There were about 12 senators who were.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, I don't think this had anything to do with the shutdown. Look, what is the base level of people that just think Donald Trump is the worst president ever? That's 30% then. I've said this before. Then you add in, you know, people that like free stuff and want health care that doesn't cost a lot, would like the government to pay for it. You got another 20 there. So you're at the majority already at 50%. And none of this is surprised.

[Becky Quick]

Some crossover.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Here's the circles.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Here's the thing I was thinking about this morning, guys. You know, this is your president after president.

[Joe Kernen]

It's your problem. I'm glad I go. I got my own problem.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

After President Trump won, I think we all said, you know what, we're Americans. Let's give him a chance to do it.

[Joe Kernen]

Is that what you said? I don't remember you.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, no. That's.

[Joe Kernen]

That's the first time, too, right? I said the first time.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Did you?

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah. All the Democrats. And the first time, too, as they.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Were conjuring up great success. I did.

[Joe Kernen]

They were conjuring up the whole. They were saying, give him a chance. Yeah. And Democrats were saying, let's give this guy.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

As a New Yorker, Joe, as a New Yorker, I woke up this morning and I said to myself, you know what? I don't agree with everything. This mayor, you want him on the show now, he's going to be our mayor, you know, says or plans to do. But I want to give him a chance and I hope for the sake of the city, he's able to.

[Joe Kernen]

Well, you wouldn't even say you weren't.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You wouldn't even say you weren't voting for him. Come. Excuse me.

[Joe Kernen]

You wouldn't even acknowledge that you weren't going to vote for Mum. So I, you know, so you got that? You can tell him, hey, I didn't even say I wouldn't vote for you. So he'll come on the show, we can talk to him and he can tell us how everything's going to be free and it's going to be great.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Look, the truth is that as a journalist, I think it's not my role and not even my role. I actually think I cannot tell you who I'm voting for. That's. You may disagree, you have a different position on that. But I think it's better not to. Not only better not to, I think it might even be a policy.

[Joe Kernen]

Okay. I mean, you can't give money, but I think you can make it clear of things that you disagree with or else I don't even know what you are. If you can't even, you know, if you don't have the, you know, the, you know, that's your thing. Good. Stick with it. The current government shutdown is now the longest on record. Emily Wilkins joins us now with more. Emily, good morning.

[Emily Wilkins]

Good morning, Joe. Well, yeah, as you guys are discussing, Democrats are feeling good after their decisive wins last night in Virginia and New Jersey's governors races. And that could translate to Senate Democrats feeling comfortable enough to continue to hold out on reopening the government until they get an agreement on health care. Now, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, Kristen Gillibrand, she's leading the Senate Democrats campaign arm. They did say in a statement last night that these victories show continued momentum for Democrats and represent a growing midterm backlash against Republicans who have fallen in line behind Trump's chaos and dysfunction. And in 2026, voters will hold GOP Senate candidates accountable. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy also tweeted that maybe the take is that, A, this is his tweet. A, people think Trump is out of control, and B, people like when Dems were taking a stand and fighting for what we believe in, as we have been in for the last month. So that was Chris Murphy on Twitter. Meanwhile, Trump took to Truth Social last night, partially blaming the shutdown for the election's result. He posted that Trump wasn't on the ballot and shutdown were the two reasons that Republicans lost elections last night, according to pollsters. That was Trump's tweet there. It remains to be seen, really, if the results are going to have any impact on the stalemate in Congress. Of course, this week you've seen a group of senators, they appear to be getting closer to a deal that would fund some key areas of the government for the next fiscal year. But some Democrats, they do still want to hold out for a firmer agreement on health care tax credits. And it's going to remain to be seen exactly. If some of them want to cross the aisle, if some of them remain firm in their position. Meanwhile, we're also keeping an eye on GOP senators. They are headed to eat breakfast at the White House this morning. And we'll of course, be keeping a close eye on what message Trump will have for them. He did tweet again last night about ending the filibuster, which so far Republicans have remained pretty firmly opposed to.

[Joe Kernen]

Joe, right? I'm not sure it's just a pass fail. Becky was talking about that. But there are two blue states that they were flukes last time with with and California, too, and New York City.

[Becky Quick]

Is that a surprise?

[Joe Kernen]

Democrat safety New York City. And I say if you sleep with the devil. But you know, the attorney general in Virginia, okay, you want to elect that guy, that's fine. You want to elect Mondami Mamdani in New York, okay, that's fine. But for New Jersey, uphill battle all along for Ciattarelli, and all along it was Trump says he wasn't on the ballot. Well, you kind of were on the ballot in New Jersey and you were on the ballot in Virginia. And they're both blue. They both start pretty darn blue. And you know that until the midterms come along, that's a way that voters are able to vote with. And you know, we know how much Democrats don't like what's going on and what happened in the last major election.

[Becky Quick]

Look, Virginia, 6% of their population is in the federal workforce. So it's not just the government shutdown. It probably has to do with Doge and some of the things that came before that.

[Joe Kernen]

There are questions around those things when, you know, it's a very rare for a Republican to win in Virginia. I forget the last time McAuliffe was there and I guess Gilmore was he. Was he Virginia, I think he was.

[Becky Quick]

A Republican, that I don't remember. But look, they were, they're Purple or blue states, however you want to say it. The California initiative, Prop 50 passed. New York City elected the Democrat as the mayor. Not huge surprises on these things. It would have been a big issue for the Democrats if they didn't sweep in all of these areas. People would be saying this morning what happened. Particularly if one of the more sensitive candidates in either New Jersey or Virginia had lost. There'd be a lot of questions about what had happened.

[Joe Kernen]

It's weird to gloat about Mamdani being, I mean I think it says what's the Journal? Mamdani leads, Democrat wins. I would be uncomfortable with that as a, as a Democrat. I wouldn't want him leading my party. 34 years old, never run stick up. Yeah, I did. Yeah. My hair is on fire now. Coming up markets. It barely is.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Third quarter results just out from wegovy maker Novo Nordisk, the Danish company lowering its full year profit and revenue forecast. Novo CEO citing lower growth expectations for GLP1 treatments. Separately, the Wall Street Journal now saying the White House speaking with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly about making some of their obesity drugs available on a proposed government run website for $149 a month. The report says Medicare and Medicaid would cover the drugs for weight loss. A big issue for, for the world, frankly. But be fascinating, Joe and Becky, if in fact we're able to get these drugs at, you know, meaningfully lower prices. And then what it would do Healthcare.

[Joe Kernen]

Still calling it unmet need. Still calling the obesity market unmet needs with all these drugs. I mean it's been revolutionized in the last couple of years and you know who's been watching twiddling their thumbs? Albert Bourlo. We still have a bunch of COVID stuff, you know, while the stock has gone from they need Pfizer needs medsara. I think we'll see. Yep, it's kind of. Pfizer had a deal, they got regulatory approval and everything else.

[Robert Frank]

So.

[Joe Kernen]

But Novo, what you think? Novo has had some disappointing follow on for its Eli Lilly. Been Eli Lilly the king of the.

[Becky Quick]

Market with all of these things. Now there are new drugs that are out there to try and see if you can improve delivery systems, improve timing on this, lessen the effects potentially.

[Joe Kernen]

But this company's got 100 employees and no drugs and it's we're up to 10 billion now for what people are offering for this company at this point. Which just shows you how important it is to I think to Pfizer probably, I guess it's important to both that you love stuff like this or can you like we haven't, you know, what was it Phillips 66 or Connor. We used to have great, remember those great fights. They come back and forth, you know, keep raising it to where it gets in the stratosphere, what people are offering for things. Maybe, maybe that's coming. Yeah, maybe that's coming.

[Becky Quick]

Maybe you're having it in the media entertainment industry right now.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

Except there each the next bit is lower. No, no, no. It's going to be, it'll be, it's going to happen with Warner Sorkin. Do you know you got your ear to the, to the pavement, can't you. You got nothing.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I got to put my, my head down.

[Joe Kernen]

You hear people running out of New York City. Help and company.

[Announcer]

Thank you.

[Joe Kernen]

Run.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Tease will be next.

[Katie Kramer]

Coming up, the other side of today's political story. Chris Buskirk is Vice President J.D. vance's co founder of the Rockbridge Network. And he is, according to a new profile in the Washington Post, one of the donors that helped propel Vance to the White House. He's a new voice for us. Buskirk's tech centric vision for this country and how he views the 2025 election results. Just one year after President Trump's 2024.

[Announcer]

Election victory, the Republican Party and the MAGA movement now has a working class base and if they're not excited about the candidate, they are not going to come out and vote. And that's what we saw in Virginia.

[Katie Kramer]

We'll be right back.

[Announcer]

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[Joe Kernen]

Level moment from ATT Business.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment.

[Joe Kernen]

Of pillows and they need to be.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

There in time for International Sleep day.

[Joe Kernen]

You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident but the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn [e-mail] 5G Network.

[Katie Kramer]

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[Becky Quick]

You're watching squawkbox right here on cnbc. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Rosssourk.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And time now for a look at how the New York City mayoral election could impact wealthy people in the Big Apple. The one and only Robert Frank, who knows more about this than just about anybody else, joins us right now.

[Robert Frank]

Andrew, great to see you guys have had some great discussions this morning all about the question of wealth flight. Will the wealthy stay or go. And in fact, there are competing studies on recent wealth flight from New York. If you look at left leaning groups, they point out that New York's population of millionaire earners, so Those are earn $1 million or more in income that has nearly doubled since 2010. There are 34,000 New Yorkers making at least $1 million or more now. While high earners did leave during COVID of course, that out migration was brief. The wealthy are now less likely to leave New York than middle class or lower income New Yorkers. On the other side, conservative groups argue that while New York's millionaire population has increased, the growth lags far behind other states. New York's share of national millionaires has fallen from 13 to 9% since 2010 and the city share has fallen from 7 to 4%. California, Florida, Texas all saw gains in those millionaire shares. Now the Citizens Budget Commission estimates that the underperformance for high earners in New York's has cost the state $11 billion in annual tax revenue, $2.5 billion for New York's. Governor Kathy Hochul says she opposes Mandani's proposed tax increases on the wealthy New Yorkers because, quote, I don't want to lose any more people to Palm Beach. We've lost enough.

[Becky Quick]

Robert, was it you we were talking about? Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Andrew.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, go ahead.

[Becky Quick]

I was just going to say we were talking with someone the other day And I think it might have been Robert, about what happened to New Jersey when David Tepper left. They had to redo the budget and cut the budget as a result of one person leaving the state.

[Robert Frank]

That's right. And if you look at New York, okay, It's the top 1% pay 40% of the taxes, but in the city and in the state, it's actually the top 200 pay something like 6 or 7%. And even within that group, you know, we have 152 billionaires in New York City. And so you could say, okay, the lower income folks are four times more likely to leave New York than the wealthy. But if you have one person who makes $1 million leave, you have to have 10 people who make $100,000 replace that person. And so that's the part where people say, well, the wealthy don't leave at the same rate as the lower income people, but they cost the tax base.

[Joe Kernen]

A lot more because the marginal rate you're not going to get because it's.

[Robert Frank]

Progressive, it's even more. Now what does have to be said said is that New York has become a place for the wealthy and for everyone else it's incredibly difficult to live here. And Joe, to your point all morning, it's the prescription for how to fix that, that's the issue. I mean, a lot of the real estate being sold in New York right now is for the wealthy that don't pay taxes here. This has become a seasonal resort town for the wealthy and for everyone else, $3,700 median rent is, is getting to be unsustainable. The one other thing which we haven't talked about this morning, which I think is the most important impact from this election, is to what extent the fight between Mamdani and Trump makes New York collateral damage in that political battle. So you know, we talked to Sean Duffy when he was here about the Gateway bridge project being canceled. Duffy said this is not political, they're just going through the process. Besant yesterday to Andrew made the point that, well, we could cut off their infrastructure funding.

[Joe Kernen]

So in addition to anything self inflicted from having this guy as mayor, it could also cause Trump to even pile on 100%.

[Robert Frank]

And that's where New York City becomes a victim. And that I think is the biggest economic risk to New York City from this election.

[Becky Quick]

Thank you so much Robert, we appreciate it.

[Joe Kernen]

The Washington Post published a profile on 1789 Capitol co founders Chris Buzkirk titled the Secretive Donor Circle that Lifted. JD Vance is now rewriting maga's future. The piece highlights him as a key figure behind the scenes in the MAGA movement dealing, detailing how his organization, the Rockbridge Network, helped propel Vance into the vice presidency and continues to shape Republican strategy and policy. Joining us now on this and more is 1789 Capital Rockbridge Network co founder Chris Buzkirk. Chris, it's good to have you on morning. We've had a lot of the people that we're talking about. We've had Oren Cass on a couple of times and we've had, you know, Don Jr. On and obviously Omid Malik has been on and the vice president. So it's a wide net. Do you have any comments about what we saw yesterday in the elections, what it portends for the midterms?

[Announcer]

I've got a bunch of comments, probably more time than you have on the show. But I mean my high level is that I don't think that the New York mayoral, mayoral race says a whole lot about the midterms. Manhattan and the five boroughs obviously are unique kind of one to one. So I don't know that that data point tells us a whole lot except for one thing, which is that the Democratic Party continues to go towards the radical left. I mean, his openly embracing Marxism. And while that might work in Manhattan, I'm not so sure that that works in Michigan or Wisconsin or Arizona and so forth. With regards to Virginia, candidates matter, Winsome Sears was a weak candidate. She had eschewed the president, made it very clear that she was not supportive, asked him to step aside in 2023. And that makes it really hard to turn out the Republican base and get them excited. And that's a lot of what we've learned over the years in the political work we've done is that you have to motivate your base. The Republican Party and the MAGA movement now has a working class base and if they're not excited about the candidate, they are not going to come out and vote. And that's what we saw in Virginia.

[Joe Kernen]

The overlap between differing philosophies, Chris, is apparent to me and whenever we had Oren Cass on, it was always apparent to me. And now for lack of a better term, Aristo populism. Have you used that term as to what maybe I learned that term yesterday.

[Announcer]

When I read the story. So no, it's not a term I've ever used, but it was, I wrote it down yesterday, but I'm not exactly sure what it's supposed to mean.

[Joe Kernen]

Is it? I mean, we know that about populism on the Democrat side obviously. And we know what their ideas entail for populism, for trying to help people. It's always been my take that progressive ideas, it's an oxymoron. They usually end up with a regressive end result. If you connect the dots. It never helps the people they're trying to help. It usually just, you know, takes us all to a lower plane. But isn't there a slippery slope when conservatives start talking about raising corporate taxes, start talking about, you know, not. I mean the worker class I think has helped when companies succeed using time tested conservative free market principles, not adopting a lot of socialist principles or left wing principles and sort of trying to dress them up as something different. Because you're a Republican.

[Announcer]

Yeah, no, we're in fierce agreement on that, Joe. Look, the only way we're going to create prosperity is with an innovation economy. And that's what we do at 1789 Capital. We're very focused on investing in the best innovators, the best founders, the best companies who are more moving the world forward by creating great technologies to solve some of the world's most hardest problems. And that creates broad based prosperity. If you try and create prosperity by taxing it, you will not create any prosperity at all. And you will immiserate millions of people as we've seen all over the world and as I think New York is about to find out in spades.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, I mean we've tried this so many different times. I mean all the cliches that, you know, rich people run out of money, they don't have enough money to spread it out evenly so that suddenly everything works the way a socialist thinks it would work. It never has succeeded and we are trying it again here. Chris, that's what you just said. What do you expect to happen in New York City?

[Announcer]

I expect people who can leave with any money at all and any resources to leave and they will continue doing what they've been doing at least since 2020. Probably going to FL. I was joking with a friend last night that the Realtor of the year for the Florida Realtors association is likely to be the mayor elect of New York City. And so those people will leave and New York will probably follow the path of a lot of other once great American cities, places like Baltimore, Detroit and so forth. And we'll just continue the slow decline, which has been depressing to see. But policy matters. And so, you know, New York was just starting to come back from the COVID restrictions. And I think that this is a massive self inflicted wound that is going to do nothing but harm the people who live in New York and who.

[Joe Kernen]

Can'T leave when I've had what's Cass's, what is his organization? Because he has said American Compass. That's it, American Compass. I've asked whether the Vice President really does adopt a lot of those principles wholeheartedly and because I know that President Trump does, and I assume that probably the Vice President has modified some of the. Do you, for example, which of the basic tenets of Orin Cass and American Compass do you adhere to?

[Announcer]

Well, look, Orrin came up with an index about maybe six or seven years ago, which I thought was really smart and called it the Cost of Thriving Index. And that was an economic index that basically tried to describe what we think of as kind of a stereotypical good middle class life entails in America is like, you know, you're married, you have a couple of kids, you own a house, you own a car, you can afford healthcare, you can send your kids to college, et cetera. And that was something that I found really insightful when Warren did that back in maybe 2018 or 2019.

[Joe Kernen]

Chris, that sounds like Mamdani. And then you just say, okay, so how do we affect that for people to get there? And do you think raising corporate taxes is the way to affect that?

[Announcer]

No, that's a way to get. To get further and further away from that is like you cannot tax your way into prosperity.

[Joe Kernen]

Go ahead.

[Announcer]

Sorry, I was just going to say I thought that that index was actually useful as a way of understanding what a goal is and saying how do we get to a point where this is the norm? The last time that you could raise a family and do what was described in the Cost of Thriving Index that Orin created, last time you could do that in this country on a single median income was 1989. And so it struck me that it is a good goal to figure out what are the precond politically and economically in order to get to that point where the kind of stereotypical post World War II Middle American life was achievable on a single median income. The answer I have for that is not taxation. Emphatically not taxation. It is innovation. It is how do we create new technologies that solve problems that increase productivity and therefore increase prosperity, which will proliferate throughout, throughout the country and throughout the American citizenry, regardless of their socioeconomic status. At the beginning of the like, people.

[Joe Kernen]

Would say that sounds like supply side trickle down. And I've said, hey, look, supply side trick down is all we got. You Grow the pie and you hope for the best and do things to grease it, to try to spread it out the best you can. But certainly shrinking the pie with policies that are counterproductive has never helped anyone. But what you have just done is condensed exactly what we're talking about. Mandani could have had the same index and said, look, it's been since 1989 since people were able to afford living in New York City. And then on the other side, you know, Orrin Cass has also, you know, identified that issue. But the way to get there is, you know, bipolar or polar opposites. The way to effect.

[Announcer]

You can't do it by taking things from people. You have to do it by increasing the amount of things that are being made. It's the point you just made, Joe, which is increase the size of the piece of. And since the first industrial revolution, the middle of the 18th century, the way we've been doing it is by creating new technologies that make people able to do more with less and that increases prosperity.

[Joe Kernen]

Chris, who's going to be, is J.D. vance going to be the next nominee in your view?

[Announcer]

Well, I say a little prayer every single night that he will be so. Yeah, I sure hope so.

[Joe Kernen]

How, how, how is 1789? How is it good investments and patriotic? How do those things go together? Is that a real thing?

[Announcer]

Yeah, it is a real thing because the best thing that we can do as investors is to, is to increase the prosperity of the country. And as you know, the drum I'm going to be beating from now probably until the day I die is how do we increase prosperity by building new things. And that's what we are. That's what we're investing in. We're investing in the entire stack, whether it be energy, chips, models, investing in energy, space, defense tech, etc. We got to push things forward. We got to grow that pie. And that means giving capital to the best founders out there.

[Joe Kernen]

For the whole first part of the interview, I didn't order it, but it said at the bottom, secretive donor. I mean, it sounded like, you know, almost like reminded me of Casablanca. Do you leave at midnight to go to these meetings and stuff and you know, look behind you to make sure no one's fooling you? Is that. Anyway, come back. I want to talk about more about that and all the secrets and all these, these other people sneaking around? Thank you.

[Katie Kramer]

Still to come on Squawkpod, one of the sure to be highest profile cases in front of the Supreme Court this term. The legality of the President's tariff policies, whether he has the power to regulate levies that are typically congressional business. Eamon Jabbers lays out the case.

[Producer/Technical Director]

What the administration is saying is, look, the President deserves a lot of deference here because this is national security, security, because this is foreign policy. Those things are the President's remit.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

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[Robert Frank]

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[Katie Kramer]

You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC. Here's Joe Kernan.

[Joe Kernen]

Stand by, Joe.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Here's Mike Q.

[Joe Kernen]

Well, on top of everything else, it's just one thing after another, is it? Now the Supreme Court's going to hear a challenge to President Trump's tariff policy. And Eamon Jamvers, you can also look at this on polymarket joins us now with more on the case. I think only 35% chance of the President prevailing with this tariff case. I don't know whether that's accurate or not, but money yesterday we saw it Eamon. There were people betting $2 million on Mamdani to make $100,000. No, it wasn't though, was it really?

[Becky Quick]

It's not if it's a sure thing, but that is.

[Joe Kernen]

It was a sure thing.

[Becky Quick]

That's a huge risk to take for a relatively small.

[Joe Kernen]

But that, that shows why. Amen. Instead of polls. If you put plunk down a couple million dollars, you probably have a pretty good idea what's going to, what's going to happen. Now I'm thinking I believe Joe yesterday.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Yeah, I saw people online, somebody tweeted this at me. People online are betting during the White House press briefing on the next word that Caroline Levitt will say, and one guy had bet $700 that the next word was going to be China. And I asked her a question about China and he was, like, celebrating online and tweeting it out. Asked him a question about China, livestreaming himself betting.

[Becky Quick]

You asked her question.

[Producer/Technical Director]

No, I didn't. But this opens up a whole new revenue stream for me. Right.

[Becky Quick]

Oh, man, don't even joke about that. I mean, there was somebody. There was a call the other night.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Shaving in the briefing room.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah. I mean, it is kind of ridiculous the things you can place money on at this point. Forget about free throws in the NBA, trying to get a CEO to say something in an earnings call. I forget which CEO said something the other. Maybe it was coinbase. Somebody said something the other day and ticked off every single. The last answer that he gave was every single word that there was a bet on him. Whether or not he would say it on the earnings call. Just used a sentence or used every one of those things. It's insane. And we have reached crazy places.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Yeah. I personally think people need a new hobby. But let's talk about the Supreme Court, which is why I'm here this morning. So, look, it is going to be an enormously high stakes day at the Supreme Court today, as you guys were just saying. President Trump says he's not going to attend today's oral arguments after all. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen is expected to be seated in the front row today. And President Trump says he believes this is going to be one of the most important decisions ever made by the Supreme Court. Now, a very large part of the tariffs that the president has enacted this year are on the line. In this decision. The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court, where, remember, Trump has appointed three of nine members to reverse a ruling from a lower court that found that most of the tariffs, tariffs are an illegal use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act. Trump has used that law to impose what he called his fentanyl tariffs, his Liberation Day tariffs earlier this year. An estimated $90 billion in tariff revenue hangs on the high court's ruling here. Treasury has said it most likely would have to send that money back this year if the Trump administration is to lose this case. Now, remember, the Constitution gives the power to impose tariffs and taxes to Congress. No president before Trump has used this 1977 law to put tariffs in place. But the law does allow a president to, quote, regulate imports of property owned by a foreign country or foreign national. Now, the White House says that's enough to allow these tariffs, but the businesses that are suing the administration argue that the power to regulate is not the same as the power to tax, and therefore the tariffs should be struck down. We'll see what the court has to say about all this at about 10am this morning. And by the way, guys, the companies that are suing the administration here, not the big global conglomerates that you might expect. The two initial cases were brought by smaller firms, including two toy manufacturers, a New York wine importer, and a woman's apparel company. Back over to you guys.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah, Eamonn, that's because the big companies can go to the White House and try and negotiate and, you know, lobby for themselves. The small companies are the ones that have no recourse.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Yeah. I think you're seeing a decision by big companies that confronting this administration is not a good use of their resources. Right. I mean, they may object to these tariffs, but adopting a confrontational posture with Donald Trump is not really good for their business because they can be singled out and targeted. These smaller businesses, though, it is existential for them, and they're less likely to be targeted by the president. The president is less likely to go after, you know, a woman's cycling apparel company or a toy company, an educational toy company or something like that that's super small, just because the optics of that are not great. So I think it's a tactical decision by the big companies to stay out of this. But I can tell you a lot of them are quietly rooting it along.

[Joe Kernen]

Is there any way it's a split decision? Because it was thinking yesterday, in fact, I asked the Treasury Secretary, you know, the emergency uses for, I don't know, trade deficit, how did that suddenly get so bad? It was an emergency. But the rare earth materials and metals, that seems to constitute what could be construed as an emergency. If someone hits you with that in your entire, you know, everything that we do, we need that stuff, Couldn't that be said? Yeah, you're right there. That is an emergency. Not so much. Maybe on the, you know, on the trade imbalance side of things. How would they rule?

[Producer/Technical Director]

Yeah, well, I think the President, the Treasury Secretary, pointed this out to you guys yesterday, saying that he thinks that they do have alternatives. You know, they have some backup authorities that they could use here. But the trick is that those authorities are more cumbersome, was what he said yesterday. That's because they require a long investigation, a whole process. What Trump has been doing this year is pretty much unilaterally imposing these tariffs essentially on power.

[Joe Kernen]

How could the supreme court ruling take into account that there are different, you know, that the tariffs against China because of the rare earth, that that is an emergency and that can stand, that other tariffs cannot stand. Could it be a split ruling that way? That's what, that's what I was asking, not what the.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Absolutely. It absolutely could be. And that's what the administration is arguing to get the court to decide with them across the board on these so called IPA tariffs. What the administration is saying is, look, the president deserves a lot of deference here because this is national security, because this is foreign policy. Those things are the president's remit, not Congress necessarily. So we really need this authority because of the way the president's using it to engage in foreign policy.

[Becky Quick]

Rare earths came along afterwards. The initial reason that they cited for the emergency was fentanyl.

[Producer/Technical Director]

Right. But you know, you could use any emergency you want as long as the court buys that argument.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

All right. Thank you, Eamon. Thank you, thank you. We all thank you.

[Katie Kramer]

And that is Squawk Pod for today. Thank you as always for listening. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Please follow Squawk Pod wherever you like to get your podcasts. Have a great Wednesday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

[Producer/Technical Director]

We are clear. Thanks, guys.

[Robert Frank]

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