Squawk Pod: A Stake in Intel & Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee — “A Note of Unease”

Episode Date: August 15, 2025
Host(s): Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin, CNBC Team
Main Guests: Austan Goolsbee (President, Chicago Fed), Steve Liesman, Rick Santelli, Eamon Javers, Katie Kramer (Producer/Host)

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks two big economic headlines:

• The potential for direct US government investment in Intel (following President Trump’s reversal regarding its CEO) and broader implications for US industrial policy.
• Inflation signals in the latest data and insights on how tariffs and volatile price indexes may influence Fed thinking, as explained by Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee (“a note of unease”).

Throughout, hosts Joe Kernen and Andrew Ross Sorkin engage in sharp debate, joined by senior reporters and guests offering historical context, critical data interpretation, and candid perspective on policy crossroads.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Inflation, Tariffs, and Who Bears the Burden (03:05 — 06:00)

• Wholesale prices surged in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 0.9% — the largest jump since March 2022.
• Tariffs’ impact: Companies are absorbing increased costs rather than passing them to consumers, but this is seen as unsustainable.
  • Joe Kernan: “They can't do that forever.” (03:46)
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin: “That's why it's going to eventually hit [consumers].” (04:01)
• Core worry: Flat or declining real wages, despite a strong stock market, are fueling public discontent even as headline macro numbers look good.
  • Joe Kernan: “Their purchasing power didn't go up, their real wages were down...By the end of the administration...you still were making less.” (04:29)

2. Talk of US Government Taking a Stake in Intel (08:15 — 18:30)

• Breaking news: Reports (Bloomberg, WSJ) say the White House is considering direct investment in Intel in exchange for equity, days after previously calling for the CEO's removal.
  • Katie Kramer: “We don’t know exactly what happened in that meeting, but something happened to turn the president’s mind around in a big way on Lipp [Intel CEO] and Intel.” (10:10)
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin challenges: “What kind of taxpayer money are we giving to Intel? Is Intel giving a stake...to the taxpayer as a present?” (10:40)
• Historical context: US government equity stakes are rare (banks in 2008, automakers, Fannie & Freddie) and normally associated with existential crises — not industrial policy.
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin: “In each of those cases...the situation was viewed as existential. Right. These companies were going to fail...” (12:18)
• Shift in rationale: The Intel case is about strategic competition with China, not corporate rescue.
  • Joe Kernan: “It's not, it's not for Intel, it's for...our ability to compete in very important security issues in the future against China.” (13:09)
• Potential precedent: Moves like this, and similar ones with US Steel, Nvidia, and AMD, raise debate over whether the US is creeping toward “state champions” and industrial policy models akin to Europe or China.
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin: “We have long denounced national champions...when other countries have taken these golden shares.” (15:45)
  • Katie Kramer: “This is getting closer to...state champions and state-sponsored capitalism if it’s a slip in a way that we haven’t seen in this country before.” (17:21)
• Skepticism and Acceptance:
  • Joe Kernan: “I'm not immediately going to say that the world is ending because we're turning into China...industrial [policy].” (18:46)
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin: “We are turning into China.” (18:59)

3. The Central Bank's View: Inflation and Tariff Impact — Interview with Fed President Austan Goolsbee (19:42 — 41:37)

Inflation Signals and "A Note of Unease"

• Data rundown: Mixed inflation reports, with CPI and PPI recently “kicking up” in less transitory categories, especially services.
  • Austan Goolsbee: “We put in a note of unease...with the inflation kicking up and kicking up in categories that are not obviously going to be transitory.” (19:42, expanded at 28:05)
• Tariffs as stagflationary risk:
  • Goolsbee: “The theory that tariffs are a one time price increase, that's true for one and done tariffs and these haven't been won or done...Is this going to be a persistent inflation shock...stagflationary...that’s the worst thing the central bank has to think through...” (30:43)
• Import price data: U.S. companies appear to be absorbing costs, as prices on finished imported goods rise, indicating foreign exporters aren't undercutting prices to offset tariffs.
  • Steve Liesman: “At least in the data, we cannot find the idea that foreign exporters are absorbing this price, at least not now.” (03:21 & 26:25)
• Fed outlook: Goolsbee is cautious, not ready to signal imminent rate cuts unless inflation settles convincingly lower.
  • Goolsbee: “Let's not overreact to one month of import price data for sure. Let's not overreact to one month of CPI or PPI inflation, but it's at least an area of concern.” (29:17)
  • Goolsbee: “If we keep getting inflation reports like the ones we had, the first two of these four...I would be very comfortable that...the dust is out of the air...” (33:55)
  • Goolsbee, on latest data: “That makes me a little uneasy because that's very unlikely to be caused by tariffs. So I'm hoping that was a blip. If that wasn't a blip, then that's an area of concern...” (37:11)
• Real Wages and Politics: Acknowledges that stagnant or declining real wages are a major public concern and political vulnerability, but reiterates he’s speaking as a central banker, not a political analyst. (34:51, 35:40)
• Labor market lens: Goolsbee suggests watching employment ratios and rates due to the unpredictability introduced by immigration and population changes, not just monthly payroll gains.
  • Goolsbee: “Those ratios and rates were a little bit better indicator of business cycle. So the hiring rate, the layoff rate, the job openings rate, and the unemployment rate, those are kind of the four horsemen...” (39:01)

4. Lighter Moments and Notable Quotes

• Debate over industrial strategy:

  • Andrew Ross Sorkin (re: US government stakes): “We have been trying...to export our brand of free market capitalism to other countries. We have long denounced national champions...” (15:45)

• Squawk Box banter:

  • Joe Kernan: “I just defer to Mr. Market most of the time. You know what? Mr. Market doesn't like August and it doesn't like September.” (06:02)
  • Andrew Ross Sorkin, quipping about translators for Trump and Putin: “I would just bring Gemini with me.” (07:09)

• Austan Goolsbee and the “data dog” approach:

  • Goolsbee: “One of the main rules of the data dogs is don't be too choosy about what you sniff, you know, whatever hits the floor.” (39:01)

• Hair jokes between hosts and Goolsbee:

  • Joe Kernan (on Fed chair style): “Could you ever foresee a Fed chairman with hair like Axl Rose? ...Is that in the realm of possibility?” (40:31)
  • Austan Goolsbee: “You think they need to be bald? What is your position? I like bald.” (40:53)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tariffs and inflation Q&A: 03:05 – 06:00
• US-Govt/Intel stake report: 08:15 – 18:30
• Fed and Goolsbee interview: 19:42 – 41:37
  • Goolsbee: “A note of unease” — 19:42, 28:05, 29:17, 30:43
  • Service inflation concern — 37:11
  • Labor market indicators — 39:01
• Squawk banter/closing: 41:43 – end

Memorable Quotes (with Speaker & Timestamps)

• Joe Kernan, on tariffs: “They can't do that forever.” (03:46)
• Andrew Ross Sorkin: “What kind of taxpayer money are we giving to Intel? Is Intel giving a stake in Intel to the taxpayer as a present?” (10:40)
• Katie Kramer (re: White House turning around on Intel): “We don’t know exactly what happened in that meeting, but something happened to turn the president’s mind around in a big way...”(10:10)
• Andrew Ross Sorkin: “We have long denounced national champions. When other countries have taken these golden shares and golden stakes, we've said that's a bad idea.” (15:45)
• Katie Kramer, on shifting US policy: “This is getting closer to...state champions and state sponsored capitalism if it's a slip in a way that we haven't seen in this country before.” (17:21)
• Austan Goolsbee: “We put in a note of unease, I’d say, in the last CPI and now PPI, with the inflation kicking up and kicking up in categories that are not obviously going to be transitory.” (19:42)
• Steve Liesman (on tariffs): “At least in the data, we cannot find the idea that foreign exporters are absorbing this price, at least not now.” (03:21, 26:25)
• Goolsbee (re: the labor market): “Those ratios and rates were a little bit better indicator of business cycle...the four horsemen of justice in this thing.” (39:01)

Tone and Style

• Energetic, lively debate — with sharp, occasionally irreverent exchanges.
• Clear division between raw data interpretation and policy implications.
• Historical anchoring — frequent references to past crises and interventions.
• Touches of humor and personality — evident in banter between Joe and Andrew, and light moments with Goolsbee.
• Direct quotes and plain language — “data dog” analogies, and persistent appeals for clarity in economic storylines.

For Those Who Missed the Episode

This episode is essential listening for anyone following:

• The evolving playbook of US industrial policy and the blurring line between strategic investment and free-market doctrine.
• The risks and complexities of interpreting inflation prints in a tariff-heavy, election-year environment.
• How Fed officials are weighing persistent price shocks, real wage stagnation, and the potential for stagflation.

Goolsbee’s “note of unease,” alongside the hosts’ cagey acceptance of new government moves, underscores this uncertain moment — one in which economic orthodoxy, politics, and global rivalry intersect more than ever.