Squawk Pod: "Aaru, Iran, & an AI Horror Story"

Date: March 20, 2026
Hosts: Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Notable Guests: Cameron Fink, Ned Koh, John Kessler (Aru), Katie Haun (VC investor)

Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod is a fast-paced curation of top business headlines, market news, technological innovation, and an exclusive set of interviews. The main themes include:

• The escalation and market ramifications of the Iran war
• The Fed chair controversy under President Trump
• An AI-generated horror novel's canceled release
• A deep-dive with the teenage founders of AI market research startup Aru
• A major MasterCard acquisition in the blockchain space and the future of “agentic” AI finance

Key Segments & Insights

1. Middle East Conflict & Market Impact

[03:02 - 06:45]

Main Points:

• Conflict Update:
  Israel and Iran have exchanged a new wave of strikes. Iranian missiles and drones targeted UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait, causing infrastructure damage.
• Oil & Economic Implications:
  Despite the conflict, oil prices cooled slightly after Israeli claims of crippling Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities.
  • The U.S. Treasury Secretary floated a plan to unsanction 140 million barrels of Iranian crude to allied nations, aiming to reduce the war-induced oil price premium.
• Gulf Economic Fallout:
  Qatari gas exports suffered a 17% hit due to Iranian strikes. Repairs could take years, risking energy price shocks for Asia and Europe.
• Strait of Hormuz Remains Cut Off:
  The waterway is essentially closed, keeping 20 million barrels/day offline and maintaining price pressure.

Notable Quotes:

• Dan Murphy (CNBC Correspondent):
  “That critical waterway … remains choked off to the world. Up to 20 million barrels of oil remaining offline... likely we'll see that price premium staying intact.” (05:27)

2. Fed Chair Powell - Political Drama

[07:05 - 09:49]

Main Points:

• Fed Chair Investigation:
  President Trump’s administration initially considered closing an investigation into Fed Chair Powell, but reversed after a judge’s ruling blocked subpoenas.
• Politics at Play:
  Delay in confirming a new Fed chair (Kevin Warsh) is possible, as North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis vows to block any replacement before investigation’s resolution.
• Judiciary Critique:
  Discussion on Judge Boasberg's pattern of rulings, stirring "activist judge" complaints and further politicizing the situation.

Notable Quotes:

• Andrew Ross Sorkin:
  "Sometimes the president does things, cuts off his nose to spite his face...” (08:42)

3. AI Horror Novel Controversy

[09:49 - 13:00]

Main Points:

• Book Cancellation:
  Hachette Book Group canceled the U.S. release of 'Shy Girl', due to allegations that parts were AI-written, despite the author’s denials.
• Creative Authorship Questions:
  Panel debates whether using generative AI (by editors, not authors) constitutes plagiarism, and what the future holds for AI and storytelling.
• AI Use in Everyday Life:
  The hosts discuss AI's efficacy in tasks like predicting March Madness outcomes, with current tools barely matching human ability.

Notable Quotes:

• Becky Quick:
  “I imagine in the future... as people now use Google, they will ultimately use AI in certain cases.” (11:16)

• Andrew Ross Sorkin:
  “The author is saying it’s the editor who used AI... But it’s a fair question: Is AI generative, and... was it ripping off from other written publications?” (12:36)

4. Amazon’s AI-Integrated Mobile Ambitions

[13:32 - 14:33]

Main Points:

• Leaked Project:
  Reuters reports Amazon is developing a new phone, codenamed 'Transformer', with deep AI voice integration via Alexa.
• Echoes of the Fire Phone:
  Hosts recall Amazon’s failed 'Fire Phone' from 2014, but speculate that advances in AI voice interfaces make the timing better today.
• Data Privacy Concerns:
  Andrew expresses discomfort over voice assistants and targeted ads, which he jokes seem to read his mind.

Notable Quotes:

• Andrew Ross Sorkin:
  "If I talk about toe fungus with Becky and next thing, I get a toe fungus medication... that was an example." (14:14)

5. Aru: Teenage Founders Disrupting Market Research with AI

[18:17 - 29:56]

Introduction:

Aru is a simulation startup founded by teenagers, now valued at $1B, with major clients from EY to A24. Their AI simulates human behavior to make market predictions.

Company Origin Story:

• Founders Met in High School:
  “[We] used to program computer programs … to hack our WiFi so we could avoid turning in homework on time.” (19:33 - Cameron Fink)
• John Kessler Joined at 15:
  Cold-emailed Cameron via LinkedIn after an accelerator stint; they quickly clicked and started the company.

Approach to Predicting Human Behavior:

• Beyond Prediction Markets:
  Ned Koh critiques traditional prediction markets for sampling bias and entertainment focus:
  “They fail for the same reason that traditional human research fails. The average human doesn’t use them.” (21:58)
• Simulation Strengths:
  Simulates hard-to-survey populations (e.g., GLP-1 weight loss drug users and their alcohol consumption patterns).
• Contrarian Health Prediction:
  Aru predicts a shift in alcohol trends for GLP-1 users—initially decreased drinking, but eventual uptick in social occasions as confidence grows.

Core Business Model & Results:

• Client Value:
  Claims to outperform traditional surveys:
  “We’ll run the exact same questions...simulate them in our model and then predict more accurately the behavior of the customers that they actually have.” (27:06 - Ned Koh)
• Rapid Growth:
  Over 100 clients, including major businesses and political organizations.

Shaping Behavior, Not Just Predicting:

• “As we see this...it’s not just the power to predict the future, but actually the power to shape it as well.” (28:32 – Cameron Fink)
• “Our simulations today have impacted hundreds of millions of people already...working on projects on how to make people more open to nuclear power plants being built.” (29:37 – Ned Koh)

6. MasterCard’s $1.8B Blockchain Bet & Future of Finance

[32:30 - 42:45]

BVNK Acquisition:

• Katie Haun on MasterCard’s Move:
  “This gets MasterCard squarely into the stablecoin space...a key innovation… to transfer a digital dollar globally, instantly, anywhere in the world.” (33:25)
• Industry Context:
  Legacy (incumbent) finance is in an “arms race” with tech innovators over payment rail control.

Regulation and Clarity:

• Legislative Landscape:
  Equivocation remains around the Clarity Act and regulatory clarity for crypto and stablecoins, but Haun notes recent collaboration between the SEC and CFTC as progress.
• Impending Legislation:
  “I’m cautiously optimistic...the bigger question is...will Congress get a bill to the floor on time to vote?” (36:20 - Katie Haun)

The Coming "Agentic" Era:

• Financial Transactions by AI:
  "I think it's pretty inevitable that...agents are going to be doing [payments and value transfers] on our behalf."
  “If you think about how humans progressed from using checks to credit cards and now...credit cards on their iPhone...agents will be using new systems.” (38:00)
• Tokenization Future:
  Haun forecasts a growing role for tokenized securities and always-on, global digital payments.

Prediction Markets:

• Promise and Regulation:
  "These marketplaces could actually over time be important, real-time, true signals...I think that that will draw a lot of government interest and already is..." (41:01)
  She predicts a coming wave of litigation and government scrutiny—“a lot of work there to come.”

Notable Quotes – Highlight Reel

• Ned Koh (Aru):
  “It starts with this idea of convincing people that magic is real...it’s an incredibly challenging problem to say, ‘Hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than talking to your customers directly.’” (01:17, repeated at 27:06)

• Cameron Fink (Aru):
  “If you can predict human behavior, you can predict the future, right? We can predict how people are going to shift markets...change their product preferences.” (01:31, elaborated at 28:32)

• Katie Haun (Haun Ventures):
  “If you think about how humans progressed from using checks to credit cards and now...credit cards on their iPhone, we think that also agents will be using some of these new systems. So I think that’s where AI comes in.” (35:20; also at 38:00)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [03:02] – Iran conflict and energy markets (Dan Murphy)
• [07:05] – Trump vs. Powell, Fed chair drama
• [09:49] – AI horror novel controversy
• [13:32] – Amazon’s AI phone ambitions
• [18:17] – Interview with Aru co-founders (origin story, business model, predictions)
• [27:06] – Aru simulation advantages
• [32:30] – Katie Haun on MasterCard's BVNK deal, AI, crypto future
• [41:01] – Prediction markets: opportunity & regulatory preview

Episode Tone & Takeaways

• Candid and Lively: Hosts balance incisive questioning with banter, humor, and open skepticism.
• Forward-Looking: Strong focus on technological disruption, both opportunity and risk.
• Provocative: The Aru founders challenge market research orthodoxy; Haun forecasts dramatic shifts in the infrastructure of global finance.
• Real-World Consequence: Headlines on war, legislation, and economic volatility ground the discussions in present-tense urgency.

Conclusion

This episode blends breaking global news with exclusive insights from new and established leaders in AI and finance, highlighting the shifting landscape of technology, economics, and the challenges (and promise) of predicting and shaping human behavior using advanced simulation, blockchain, and AI tools.