Squawk Pod Episode Summary

Podcast: Squawk Pod (CNBC)
Episode Title: An “Armada” for Iran & Crypto’s Two Regulators
Date: January 29, 2026
Hosts: Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Brian Sullivan

Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod tackles two major themes:

1. The escalating geopolitical and military tensions between the U.S. and Iran following President Trump’s ultimatum—and what’s at stake for energy markets and global security.
2. A pivotal moment in U.S. crypto regulation, featuring a candid discussion with SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig. The pair address new crypto legislation, the potential merging of agencies, and the role of digital assets in retirement accounts.

Additionally, the episode covers major corporate earnings (Meta, Microsoft), the influence of AI on the workforce and markets, and a winter weather update.

1. Market Recap & Big Tech Earnings

(02:35-07:13)

• S&P 500 & Dow: Market continues its climb with the S&P hitting an intraday high. Gold, silver, and copper prices are also surging, while the U.S. dollar declines.
• Federal Reserve: The Fed holds rates steady, with Chair Jay Powell offering little indication of immediate change.

  “In some places Jay Powell pulled a little bit of a Charlie Munger, I have nothing further to add.” —Becky Quick (03:45)

• Meta Earnings:
  • Meta forecasts massive spending ($115–$135B) on AI and core business improvements, far exceeding 2025's $72B.
  • Mark Zuckerberg claims that “things that used to take full teams of people to do can now be done by one talented person” due to AI.

    “They're using their own AI tools…being able to use it internally and how that's going to help.” —Brian Sullivan (04:43)

  • Stock jumps 8.9% on AI optimism.
• Microsoft Earnings:
  • Strong, but Azure’s growth slowed slightly. Capex grew 65% YoY to $37.5B.
  • Discussion of competitive threats from the emergence of “cloud code.”

2. Crypto Regulation: The Dual Regulator Debate

(07:13-15:53)

2.1. New Bill & Congressional Dynamics

• SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig discuss the latest crypto regulatory bill, which has passed the House and is in negotiation in the Senate.

  “The Congress has its ways of negotiating ... The SEC has been giving technical assistance ... for months ... looking forward to ... getting something that works for all the parties.” —Paul Atkins (08:27)

• Sticking Points:
  • Yield on stablecoins and how deposits are treated (a key banking vs. crypto industry concern)
  • Jurisdictional division and turf between the SEC and CFTC

    “With respect to those issues about staking and yield ... I'll leave that to, you know, the different parties ... But we're ready, willing, and able to work with whatever they come up with.” —Paul Atkins (09:47)

2.2. Calls for Agency Merger

• Longstanding debate around merging the SEC and CFTC.

  “I compare it to historically two different fortresses with a no man's land in between ... Lots of times [innovative products] just languish and never get approved … That's over with. We're out to … collaborate and help people do their innovation.” —Paul Atkins (11:55)

2.3. Crypto in Retirement Accounts

• Elizabeth Warren’s criticism of allowing crypto in U.S. retirement accounts is discussed.

  “A lot of people are already exposed to crypto ... through their pension funds. ... We’re looking to allow people to have access … through their 401k, through the professional management … with guardrails to protect the retirees.” —Paul Atkins (13:18)

2.4. U.S. as Crypto Market Leader

• Mike Selig emphasizes the need for sensible regulation to bring crypto business back from offshore havens:

  “We’ve seen a lot of these technologies and assets move offshore and we want to bring it back … really codify sensible, common sense, reasonable, rational rules of the road for the asset class ... make the United States the premier place to do business.” —Mike Selig (14:46, 15:53)

3. U.S.–Iran Escalation & Geopolitics

(16:01-27:24)

3.1. U.S. Military Posture and Potential Strike

• President Trump warns Iran: make a nuclear deal or face U.S. military action.
• Amos Hochstein (former Biden adviser) outlines the situation:

  “Not just the quantity of force in the region... but the types of force ... suggest both a strike and a fairly significant one.” —Amos Hochstein (19:16)

• The administration considers a “Venezuela model”: regime decapitation (removing top leadership) rather than full regime change or ground invasion.

3.2. Israel’s Role & Intelligence

• Israel has the intelligence, U.S. has the firepower. The potential for a joint operation is discussed.

  “They have more of the intelligence on where key individuals are … that combination is a pretty lethal one.” —Amos Hochstein (19:57)

• On the likelihood of a U.S. strike:

  “I think it is more likely than not.” —Amos Hochstein (21:56)

3.3. Why Protests in Iran Were Ignored

• Hochstein laments global indifference to the violent Iranian crackdown:

  “10,000 Iranians being gunned down over two days should matter to everybody.” —Amos Hochstein (21:12)

3.4. Energy Market Implications

• Iran’s oil exports remain robust despite pressure.
  • U.S. desire for “$50 oil” may have softened enforcement.
  • A strike could quickly drive oil from $70 to $80 and disrupt global LNG flows.

  “If there’s action in Iran … that starts getting very dangerous for energy flows from that region in a way we haven’t seen in many decades.” —Amos Hochstein (25:33)

3.5. LNG Risk and Executive Decisions

• CEOs debating whether to attend the major LNG conference in Doha due to heightened risk.

4. Notable Quotes

• “Things that used to take full teams of people to do can now be done by one talented person.” —Mark Zuckerberg, paraphrased (04:43)
• “If you kill the supreme leader ... I think it’s about taking out the leadership of the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard, the political leaders, the military... to enable an uprising that delivers change from within.” —Amos Hochstein (23:49)
• “We’re out to … collaborate and help people do their innovation, get to market and give investors what they need.” —Paul Atkins (11:55)
• “[Crypto regulation will] allow for this asset class to flourish here in America … really a gold standard for crypto asset markets.” —Mike Selig (14:46)

5. Weather Update: Winter Storm Forecast

(28:35-30:50)

• Accuweather’s Bernie Rayno: Next major snowstorm to mostly hit the Carolinas and eastern New England, sparing NYC/DC from the worst. Significant beach erosion and coastal flooding expected due to a developing "bomb cyclone."

  “How about a blizzard? ... That's what we think is going to happen in the Outer Banks of North Carolina.” —Bernie Rayno (29:47)

6. Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• [04:43] Meta to spend up to $135B on AI and infrastructure.
• [09:47] Crypto regulation’s main sticking points outlined.
• [11:55] Paul Atkins’ “two fortresses” analogy for agency overlap.
• [13:18] Paul Atkins asserts the need for measured, professional access to crypto in retirement accounts.
• [19:16] Amos Hochstein signals strong odds of significant U.S. military action against Iran.
• [21:12] Hochstein notes the world’s double standard in outrage over Middle East violence.

Episode Flow and Tone

The tone is brisk and urgent, reflecting the gravity of both the crypto legislative crossroads and the Iran military escalation. There's robust debate, particularly on regulatory lines and geopolitical models of intervention, with hosts asking probing, sometimes philosophical questions of the guests. The episode balances technical detail with an accessible, current-events sensibility.

For Listeners Who Missed It

• Want the TL;DR?
  • The U.S. and Iran are closer to military confrontation than in years, with real risks for oil and energy markets worldwide.
  • Crypto regulation is at a historic juncture, with reform that could make the U.S. a “gold standard” regulatory environment if differences between the SEC and CFTC are resolved.
  • The AI boom is revolutionizing how Big Tech operates—and how markets and workers will adapt.
  • Weather alert: a serious winter storm could impact the East Coast soon.

This episode is essential listening for anyone tracking the intersection of finance, global security, and emerging tech policy.