Bill Gates Shifts on Addressing Climate Change 10/28/25

Summary

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Squawk Pod Summary: “Bill Gates Shifts on Addressing Climate Change”

Date: October 28, 2025
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Special Guest: Bill Gates

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Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod centers on Bill Gates’s new memo and shifting perspective on climate change priorities, especially resource allocation between climate action and humanitarian aid. Gates also weighs in on artificial intelligence, potential tech bubbles, and government industrial policy. Additionally, the team covers major news stories, from President Trump’s visit to Japan to OpenAI’s new PayPal partnership.

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Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Bill Gates’s Memo: Rethinking Climate Change Strategy

Timestamps: [12:39] – [21:29]

• Central Message: Gates urges a recalibration of global priorities, advocating for evaluating all aid—including climate initiatives—through the lens of greatest benefit to human wellbeing, especially in poor countries.

  • Quote (Bill Gates, 11:04): “I’m a climate activist, but I’m also a child survival activist.”
  • Acknowledges that aid budgets to poor countries are decreasing, forcing sharper trade-offs between climate action and life-saving programs.
  • Contends that “doomsday thinking” in the climate community may distract from more pressing, immediate human needs.

• Shifting Priorities:

  • Gates asserts that the main objective must be to “prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.” ([15:18])
  • “Although climate change will hurt poor people more than anyone else, for the vast majority of them, it will not be the only or even the biggest threat to their lives and welfare. The biggest problems are poverty and disease, just as they always have been.” (Read by Andrew Ross Sorkin, [15:18])

• On Paris Climate Accord:

  • Gates calls it a “key milestone,” validating that a global mutual problem exists ([17:06])
  • But says the 1.5°C target was unrealistic, even “if you took all the money away from health.” ([17:36])

• Corporate Climate Pledges:

  • He praises firms like Microsoft for early support: “Why have we been able to lower the future emissions? It’s because companies... focused on this initiative. Very important that those companies help advance these new technologies by being the early customers.” ([18:17])

• On Alleged Reversal:

  • Gates rejects the idea he’s changed sides, emphasizing a measured approach.
  • When asked what he’d say to climate activists like Greta Thunberg, he states:

    “Wasn’t the goal here to improve human lives?... If we stop putting all vaccines and that saved you 0.1 degree, would that be a smart trade off? That’s the kind of question we have to ask.” ([19:15])

• On Political Realities:

  • Gates laments cuts to US climate support but stresses the need to view climate as one urgent global challenge among several.
  • “If you think climate is the only problem and it’s apocalyptic, or if you think climate’s not a problem at all, my memo will make no sense to you… The middle position that climate is super important but has to be considered in terms of overall human welfare...I think intellectually the right answer.” ([21:05])

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2. Roundtable Reaction: Gates’s Nuanced Stance

Timestamps: [21:29] – [27:17]

• Andrew Ross Sorkin: Notes Gates’s history of nuance, but anticipates critics will “say that this is a complete retreat.” ([21:29])
• Becky Quick: Observes Gates’s longstanding emphasis on measurable outcomes, wonders if data has influenced his recalibration.
• Joe Kernen: Frames the “climate crisis” as politically overblown, lists other global problems he sees as overlooked.
  • Quote (Joe Kernen, 22:56): “It’s always been clear that developed countries have a much better ability to try to do all these pie in the sky initiatives and spend money...”
  • Calls climate activism a “secular religion to the left.” ([23:52])
• Debate on Trade-Offs:
  • Panel agrees Gates’s focus on allocating limited resources—especially with falling foreign aid budgets—is a significant reframing, if not a full reversal.
  • Kernen underscores that Gates isn’t denying climate change but is deprioritizing it as the sole global emergency.
  • Sorkin stresses the “intellectual honesty” in recognizing finite resources.

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3. Gates on the AI Bubble and Tech Investment

Timestamps: [27:17] – [30:52]

• Is there an AI bubble?

  • Gates suggests AI mirrors the dot-com era: “If what we mean is like tulips in the Netherlands… there was nothing there. Those were just tulips. No, that’s not where we are. If you mean it’s like the Internet bubble… where in the end something very profound happened… some companies succeeded but a lot… fell behind. Burning capital companies. Absolutely.” ([27:24])
  • Quote (Bill Gates, 28:16): “The AI is the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime… it is so profound and therefore its influence is hard to overstate.”

• Investment Pitfalls:

  • Some companies will “commit to data centers whose electricity is too expensive... Or they’ll buy a generation of chips and, you know, they won’t have captured all their value.” ([28:46])
  • Every tech company feels compelled to stay in the race, risking overextension.

• Social & Economic Impact:

  • Gates acknowledges public worries about energy consumption and job displacement: “We need to make sure to pick locations where the economics and the political acceptance is very, very strong. We don’t have permission to drive up people’s electricity costs.” ([29:41])
  • Honest about likely “big effect on the job market.”

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4. Government Industrial Policy

Timestamps: [30:52] – [32:02]

• Predictability is key:
  • Gates cautions that government policy is currently unpredictable, essential for stable investment.
  • “Government operates best when it’s kind of predictable... when you build a factory...The rules of the game we’re playing are pretty unclear right now.” ([31:04])

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5. Other Major News Highlights

Timestamps: [02:43] – [10:24], [07:42] – [08:58]

• President Trump in Japan: Signing of a $550B trade agreement, visit with first female Japanese PM ([02:55])
• Hurricane Melissa: Major Category 5 storm threatens Jamaica and wider Caribbean ([05:38])
• Layoffs:
  • Amazon to cut 14,000 jobs ([06:27])
  • Paramount Skydance planning 2,000 layoffs ([07:02])
• PayPal & OpenAI Partnership:
  • PayPal to become the first payment wallet within OpenAI’s ChatGPT ([07:42])
  • Discussion on shifting payment ecosystems and disintermediation of existing players

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6. Andrew Ross Sorkin Rings NYSE Opening Bell

Timestamps: [38:14] – [44:36]

• Sorkin celebrates NYSE “Black Monday” anniversary with his new book, 1929.

• Reflects on market crashes then and now, improved regulation, and the hope that lessons have been learned.

  • Quote (Andrew Ross Sorkin, 42:11): “We now have an SEC. We actually have rules. There was manipulation going down on the floor of this exchange. We now have bank capital rules... I am hopeful [these are] some of the lessons that came out of 1929.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bill Gates on unachievable climate goals:

  “The one thing about that accord that turned out not to be realistic was the ambitious goal of staying to 1.5 degrees. We won’t be able to do that. Even if you took all the money away from health, you wouldn’t be able to do that.” ([17:36])

• Bill Gates on prioritizing life-saving aid over fractional climate gains:

  “If we stop putting all vaccines and that saved you 0.1 degree, would that be a smart trade off? That’s the kind of question we have to ask.” ([19:15])

• Joe Kernen’s skepticism of climate politics:

  “It’s a secular religion that’s not based on any hardcore science. That’s where I come from.” ([23:52])

• Andrew Ross Sorkin on Gates’s shift:

  “It is, it is a trade off. And that’s what he’s presenting here.” ([22:19])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [12:39] – [21:29] Bill Gates interview: resource allocation, climate change memo
• [21:29] – [27:17] Panel reaction and debate over Gates’s stance
• [27:17] – [30:52] Gates on AI: bubble, investment climate, anticipated disruption
• [30:52] – [32:02] Industrial policy and government’s role
• [07:42] – [08:58] PayPal/OpenAI partnership analysis
• [38:14] – [44:47] Andrew Ross Sorkin at NYSE, “Black Monday” anniversary

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Tone & Context

Throughout the episode, the panel maintains CNBC’s characteristic mix of hard-nosed analysis, pointed debate, and occasional humor. Gates’s interview is handled with seriousness but balanced by the hosts’ skeptical, sometimes wry commentary.

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Takeaways for New Listeners

• Bill Gates is not abandoning climate action but insists it cannot come at the expense of immediate, life-saving interventions—especially for the world's poorest.
• Gates urges reframing the conversation around human welfare and trade-offs, a perspective both nuanced and controversial.
• He sees AI as the most transformative tech yet—paralleling the internet’s impact—but warns of economic disruption and overhyped speculation in the sector.
• The episode contextualizes Gates’s views within broader debates about political priorities, corporate action, and how global crises should be tackled.

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Transcript

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[Katie Kramer]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, Bill Gates, Microsoft co founder and billionaire philanthropist, is out with a new surprising memo about allocating resources for climate change.

[Bill Gates]

If we stop putting all vaccines and that saved you 0.1 degree, would that be a smart trade off? That's the kind of question we have to ask.

[Katie Kramer]

Gates is taking a hard look at our global priorities and at artificial intelligence. What else?

[Bill Gates]

It is so profound and therefore its influence is hard to overstate.

[Katie Kramer]

What kind of AI bubble are we in?

[Bill Gates]

Some of these companies will be glad they spent all this money. Some of them, you know, they'll commit to data centers whose electricity is too expensive. You know that it could be done overseas.

[Katie Kramer]

That big conversation. Plus, Hurricane Melissa approaches Jamaica. President Trump is in Asia. October, baseball.

[Joe Kernen]

Did they put a guy on second last night? They didn't do. Are they doing that or are they not? Maybe they are. I wasn't up watching it.

[Katie Kramer]

And PayPal teams up with OpenAI on a ChatGPT payments deal.

[Becky Quick]

PayPal used to be the only game in town. There are so many different alternatives now.

[Katie Kramer]

It's Tuesday, October 28th, 2025. Squawkpod begins right now.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Stand Becky by in three, two, one. Cue it, please.

[Becky Quick]

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawkbox right here on cnbc. We're live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

[Joe Kernen]

President Trump in Japan this morning. He's expected to begin a reception with business leaders this hour. Eamon Javers joins us now from Washington with the latest. Good morning, Eamon.

[Eamon Javers]

Yeah, good morning to you, Joe. President Trump's Summit in Japan got into full swing overnight as he engaged in a bilateral meeting and signing ceremony with Japanese Prime Minister Takeichi at the Akasaka palace in Tokyo. The President saluted his Japanese counterpart and praised her for becoming the first female Prime Minister of Japan.

[Bill Gates]

The first female Prime Minister in the history of Japan.

[Eamon Javers]

The two leaders signed documents including a new agreement to pursue critical minerals together. And the President saluted the terms of the new trade agreement between the two countries under which Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and get a lower 15% tariff on imports to the US from Japan.

[Bill Gates]

Just signing a new deal and it's a very fair deal and we look forward to welcoming Japan into the United States and a continuation and it's something that everybody is very, very excited about now.

[Eamon Javers]

The Prime Minister began her remarks noting that they were slightly delayed because the two leaders were watching last night's World Series game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and and the Toronto Blue Jays which featured several Japanese players on the field. Then the two leaders flew to the aircraft carrier USS George Washington in Yokosuko where they inspected American fighter jets and were greeted by the U.S. navy sailors 7th Fleet band. President Trump said he'd approved new missiles to be sent to the Japanese Self Defense Forces and emphasized the strong alliance between the two powers. And later this hour, guys, as you mentioned, we are expecting the President to attend a reception and a dinner with business leaders in Tokyo. We're not sure yet how much of that we're going to see or how many corporate CEOs will be able to identify in the room, but it should be a high powered gathering there in Tokyo. Back over to you.

[Joe Kernen]

Two games basically last night, right, Eamon? Nine times two. I bet you there is a lot of interest.

[Eamon Javers]

I had to go to bed super early, Joe. I don't know how you guys do this morning shift.

[Becky Quick]

We didn't stay up on the baseball.

[Joe Kernen]

No, we heard about it though. But yeah, you get the highlights in Japan with the Dodgers.

[Eamon Javers]

Sure.

[Joe Kernen]

And everything else.

[Becky Quick]

He's pitching tonight, that guy.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, I know. Yeah, I won't get tonight or tomorrow.

[Becky Quick]

Whenever the next game is, he's pitching.

[Joe Kernen]

I like Toronto, I like the Blue Jays. I'm not going to say anything. Let me say suddenly I'm a Dodger fan.

[Eamon Javers]

Yeah, not a bad way to spend the day. Hanging out with the Prime Minister, watching baseball and then going to an aircraft carrier.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, that's pretty good. Pretty good deal. All right, Eamon, see you later. Thanks.

[Becky Quick]

The National Hurricane center is warning of catastrophic and life threatening winds, flooding and storm surge for Jamaica this morning. Hurricane Melissa is lashing the island nation as a powerful Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds near 175 miles an hour. Forecasters calling for the hurricane to move over Jamaica today across southeastern Cuba tomorrow morning and then hit the Bahamas later tomorrow morning. Morning. But the storm surge, the winds and the long sustained time period that it's expected to be sitting over these islands is raising lots of concerns about how much damage it's going to do.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

That it is. That it is. I love Jamaica. Let's hope it doesn't get hit but or at least doesn't get hit as hard as some of the expectations.

[Joe Kernen]

Amazon is planning to cut 14,000 jobs across its corporate workforce again. Wow, 14,000. It outlined plans in a message to employees early this morning. A senior executive wrote that the company needs to be organized, in their words, more leanly to capitalize on opportunities from AI. A nice way of putting it. Amazon has been conducting rolling layoffs since 2022 as part of CEO Andy Jassy's cost cutting campaign. Since then, about 27,000 employees have been let go.

[Becky Quick]

Paramount Skydance plans to cut a thousand jobs in its first round of layoffs beginning tomorrow. That's according to a Bloomberg report. A second round is expected later. Multiple outlets previously reported that Paramount was planning to lay off a total of about 2,000 people. Meantime, a separate Bloomberg report says that Paramount Skydance plans to keep much of Warner Bros. Discovery intact if its merger bid for the rival studio is successful. The report says that CEO David Ellison wants to keep the creative teams at the two studios while consolidating some of the marketing and distribution. Warner Brothers stock this morning off by about 9 cents.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We got some breaking news to bring you right now. PayPal has a new deal with OpenAI. It's going to make PayPal the first payments wallet inside of OpenAI. Husson writing that story up just now on CNBC.com starting next year, users are going to be able to purchase items on chat GPT through PayPal. It also signals that chatbots efforts to move more into the consumer space continues apace. And you can read more about what's happening on cnbc.com literally as we speak. Shares of PayPal up about 1% this morning, but down about 15% in the last year. But you know, you talk about disintermediating things. In some ways this is not disremeting PayPal because they'll become the payments platform, if you will. But it means that a lot of folks are going to Be inside of chatbots buying things which may disintermediate some of the folks either selling them or how all of this is going to work. I think, you know, we talk about the blue link economy, the Google Blue link economy search and the like, how that's going to disappear over time.

[Joe Kernen]

Hmm.

[Becky Quick]

It's so interesting because PayPal used to be the only game in town. There are so many different alternatives now. You know, Apple Wallet with the double click, quick thing to go through. Probably very smart for PayPal to try and get there and get there first.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Look, the question I have is, is this exclusive? I imagine other platforms are going to be jumping in. You're going to want to be able to buy with your iPhone and you're this and you're that. I don't know how often you just double click now on the phone using Apple Pay. So it's going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, I still have cash in my wallet.

[Becky Quick]

I don't know, there's just so many online things that you use. Venmo, do you use Zelle? Do you use PayPal? Do you use the Apple Pay or the Shop Pay? Like half of the things that are tied up on online shopping with Amazon. I mean, and by the way, I use all of them.

[Charles Schwab Announcer]

Right.

[Joe Kernen]

I did something the other day.

[Becky Quick]

Whatever's the fastest car.

[Joe Kernen]

I did something the other day and they said, no, you need to. I had the credit card out and they said, no, it's under $2. And I was like, oh, my God, you need money. I think I can. It was like a pastry. I didn't need it anyway. And then they gave me, like these little things. Bag metal things. Yes.

[Becky Quick]

Which, by the way, I needed a quarter to pay for a stupid parking spot. You know, like a parking meter. The other day I finally found one that was like stuck with Diet Coke or something to the bottom of the.

[Joe Kernen]

That's old school, too. Because everything else now is right.

[Becky Quick]

Most of them you could just use Tap to pay. Tap to pay. These were old school. I was up in Westchester and these were old school. And I literally had to take a knife to get this quarter off the bottom.

[Joe Kernen]

Don't you have change? I might have changed.

[Becky Quick]

I used to. I don't anymore.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, I still have it. Goes in the car. Put it here. I'll use it. Never do.

[Eamon Javers]

Tees will be next.

[Katie Kramer]

Coming up next on Squawkpod, Bill Gates has written a new essay on climate and on global priorities to improve human welfare.

[Bill Gates]

If the aid budgets to poor countries were continuing to go up the way they did over the last 25 years, then the trade offs between climate action and saving children's lives wouldn't be as acute as it is now that these budgets are going down.

[Katie Kramer]

For some, it may seem like a reversal, but Gates says nope. He's addressing an issue of resources.

[Bill Gates]

I'm a climate activist, but I'm also a child survival activist.

[Katie Kramer]

Plus how the co founder of Microsoft is thinking about the AI bubble and much, much more right after this break. For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org the heaviest metal credit.

[FedEx Announcer]

Card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the international space station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments.

[Charles Schwab Announcer]

FedEx, the new PowerMove trading at Schwab, is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the trade desk. Our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy. Gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help and access support by phone, email and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn [e-mail] trading.

[Katie Kramer]

This is Squawk Pod.

[Eamon Javers]

Stand Andrew by in 3, 2, 1, up.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And Andrew Cub, you're watching Squawk Box. I'm Andrew Ossorkin along with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick.

[Bill Gates]

Vernon sends a fly ball to center field. Marshall's going back before the catch strikes. McKayman has ended.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And it was an amazing end to an historic baseball game. The Dodgers Freddie Freeman hitting a walk off home run in the 18th inning to beat the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 of the World Series. The game lasting. You ready for this? Six hours and 39 minutes, Joe.

[Joe Kernen]

You know there's 162 games, Andrew. That's why most of the time they'll stick a guy on second base in the 10th inning. But not in, not, not, not now. And this is why, this is why they came up with that. It's not that hard, you know, put a guy on second, move him over to third, you know, with a bunt and he scores. That's a way to end these games. But if you don't do that.

[Becky Quick]

Would you say 37 guys who got stuck?

[Joe Kernen]

I didn't even. Last night.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah, I think it was 37 guys who got stuck.

[Joe Kernen]

Did they put a guy on second last night? They didn't do. Are they doing that or are they not? Maybe they are. I, I didn't, I wasn't up watching it.

[Becky Quick]

I wasn't either.

[Joe Kernen]

I heard about it on Someone can tell me on Twitter. Did they really. 18 innings with the guy on.

[Becky Quick]

Well, I don't, I don't know if it.

[Joe Kernen]

Did they put a guy in or not.

[Becky Quick]

They went through 19 pitchers. They had 30 seconds.

[Joe Kernen]

I thought I saw it the other night.

[Becky Quick]

Stuck on base.

[Joe Kernen]

No, no, they don't. Not in the World Series. Yeah, I was watching another game where they did. Yeah, they're not. So.

[Becky Quick]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah.

[Charles Schwab Announcer]

Okay.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Joe New this morning, what could turn out to be the talker of the day? Microsoft co founder Bill Gates publishing a memo that suggests adopting a different view and changing strategy towards addressing climate change. It is a rebuttal to what he calls, quote, the doomsday scenario, which Gates says is, quote, causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near term emission goals and it's diverting resources, he says, from the most effective things we should be doing to improve life in a warming world. He writes, quote, this is a chance to refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change. Improving lives. Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world's poorest countries. Although climate change will hurt poor people more than anyone else, for the vast majority of them, it will not be the only or even the biggest threat to their lives and welfare. The biggest problems are poverty and disease, just as they always have been. Now, I spoke to Bill Gates in an exclusive TV interview and I asked him to explain what he hopes people take away from this new message.

[Bill Gates]

Climate is a super important problem. There's enough innovation here to avoid super bad outcomes. We won't achieve our best goal, the 1.5 or even the 2 degrees. And as we go about trying to minimize that, we have to frame it in terms of overall human welfare. Not just everything should be solely for climate.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

How much of your own view is a function of just contextually what's happening in the world versus what I think you've thought for a long time about the climate?

[Bill Gates]

Well, if the aid budgets to poor countries were continuing to go up the way they did over the last 25 years, then the trade offs between climate action and saving children's lives wouldn't be as acute as it is now that these budgets are going down and going down quite a bit. And so the plea here is to say, okay, let's take that very limited money and not have some partitioned off for particular causes. Let's measure it all in terms of the human welfare. How do you help those countries?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You were a huge supporter of the Paris Climate Accord at the time. And I wonder now, when you look back, given that you're changing sort of the metric with which you used, do you say to yourself that the Paris Climate Accord and its goals were misplaced?

[Bill Gates]

No, not at all. That was a key milestone because the countries of the world said, hey, this is a mutual problem. The temperature rise. The entire world will experience a temperature rise from the emissions from all these countries. So getting countries to commit was very, very important. The one thing about that accord that turned out not to be realistic was the ambitious goal of staying to 1.5 degrees. We won't be able to do that. Even if you took all the money away from health, you wouldn't be able to do that. So now the question is, okay, what temperature level are we going to end up at? Very important to minimize that, but not at the expense of everything else.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Okay, but in the context of not at the expense of everything else, so many businesses, companies including Microsoft, made pledges around being net zero, trying to get, in some cases, negative. Net zero meaning going back and paying for their carbon production from earlier. Was that a mistake now?

[Bill Gates]

Not at all.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

That's not the message that you're trying to suggest?

[Bill Gates]

No, not at all. I mean, the. Why have we been able to lower the future emissions? It's because companies like Microsoft and many others focused on this initiative. And it's very important that those companies help advance these new technologies by being the early customers for things like nuclear fission, fusion, clean cement. They're driving the prices down. And, and that's the magic thing. When you get the clean stuff to be cheaper than the dirty stuff, then you can take that whole area of emissions and saying, okay, just normal market economics works there.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

When the climate activists who have been very supportive of what you've done and you've been very supportive of what they've done, read this. And if Greta Thunberg is reading this and saying to herself, my goodness, he seems like he is reversing himself, what would you tell her?

[Bill Gates]

I'd say, wasn't the goal here to improve human lives? And shouldn't we in our awareness of how little generosity there is to help measure. You know, should we get them a measles vaccine or should we do some climate related activity? And if we could take, if we stop putting all vaccines and that, you know, saved you 0.1 degree, would that be a smart trade off? That's the kind of question we have to ask. So I'm a climate activist, but I'm also a child survival activist.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So what do you think is going to be the critique of this? There are going to be people who are going to say that you are changing the goalposts because of this political climate as a way to placate President Trump, who has not been on the side of some of the net zero and obviously the Paris Climate Accord and things like that.

[Bill Gates]

Well, I'm glad that some of the provisions that promoted new climate technologies got preserved. I was disappointed that a lot of that was taken away. But the provisions supporting nuclear and geothermal, some of those were maintained. The US has pulled back and that's a huge disappointment. We really need all the countries working together on this, just like we need them to be generous on their aid budget. If you think climate is the only problem and it's apocalyptic, or if you think climate's not a problem at all, my memo will make no sense to you. You'll be like, oh no, it should all be climate. Or you'll be like, why are you even still talking about this climate climate thing? Why do you invest billions of your money into these companies? The middle position that climate is super important but has to be considered in terms of overall human welfare. I didn't pick that position because it's a, you know, everybody agrees with it. It's, I think intellectually the right answer.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And guys, that it's a very nuanced view. I'm so curious, Becky and Joe, what you think of it when you read it on the page. It really is, or at least seems to be somewhat a reversal, if you will, to some of the comments that he's made in the past. Though I actually went back and looked some of the comments he'd made in the past, even about the Paris Climate Accord. He had said that he thought the goals actually were too ambitious even at the time, that they would never be achieved. But I do know that I'm sure critics of, of, of climate issues and of his will say that this is a complete retreat, which I also think it is not. So there's sort of two ideas that maybe you can hold in your head at the same time, but I also imagine Greta Thunberg will not be happy with, with, with these comments either because it is, it is a trade off and that's what he's presenting here.

[Joe Kernen]

I think that sums it up, Andrew, that trying to appease or, I don't know, not upset. Greta Thunberg is kind of the, that kind of sums it up for me right there.

[Becky Quick]

The one thing I will say is Bill Gates has always been somebody who has measured outcomes. If you read his annual letter from year to year, he talks about how no matter what people think, the world is getting better. And he does that by measuring childhood deaths worldwide. He does does that by measuring all kinds of things. I wonder if he's seen a shift in the numbers and if that has convinced him that more money needs to go to these other issues. One thing he said is climate change is not going to be the biggest.

[Joe Kernen]

Issue in the world's eyes. It's always been clear that developed countries have a much better ability to try to do all these pie in the sky initiatives and spend money where the starving country, the less developed countries that really need fossil fuel. It's been to a lot of people like me, it's been kind of a, you know, I look at it and I listen to what he said, Andrew. You know, I'm on the other side of what he said. There's people that he said are here, I'm here. I think the entire initiative is a fool's errand in a phantom menace. And I've said for so long, plastics in the ocean, particulate pollution, strip mining, overfishing. You know, I can give you 50 things we could have been spending that money on instead of this fool's errand of trying to make sure we don't go to.041% CO2 versus 040% CO2. All of the faux connection between every adverse weather event and a single carbon dioxide molecule in 10,000 parts of the atmosphere. People laugh at it and it's weird that it's so politically motivated. Greta Thunberg is a perfect example to the far left. It's a secular religion that's not based on any hardcore science. That's where I come from.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And Joe, I think one of the things he's trying to say is that view he's suggesting and I think it's actually the first time he's suggested publicly is too much and that that is an extreme view and that that the industry and the world has almost over rotated towards that view and what he's saying. And I think he's saying it in the context. And this goes to where Becky was going with, with the money and USAID and everything else in a world to usaid.

[Becky Quick]

Did this change his mind?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah, well, that I think was. That is exactly what he said. And I think that in the context of limited resources, to me, Bill Gates.

[Joe Kernen]

Is absolutely insufferable when he's talking about some of this. I'm sorry, but he just is. I know he coded some great software, but even when he weighs in on vaccines, he means well. He means well. But on this issue, he reminds me of someone who bought Bitcoin over $100,000.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Oh, see, I thought that you were going to say hallelujah and say, here's somebody.

[Joe Kernen]

Baby steps.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Maybe you think it's baby steps.

[Joe Kernen]

He's slowly, you know, we've had Chris Wright on. We've had other people from the administrator. I can, I could bring people on that. I guess they're called heretics because it's a secular religion to the left. It really is. It is a secular. It has heretics.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I don't think he's taking a political position. I think he's saying, look, it's all. Climate change is real. He's not, he's not denying that climate change is real. He's saying climate change is real on one end, and yet we have to, we have to walk on these other issues as well. And how do we do that? And we can't take all of our money and all of our energy, focus it solely on climate change when we, when we have all these other issues.

[Joe Kernen]

Andrew at Handberg, there's been people, I mean, I follow the entire area. There's been people that have been saying this for a long time that there's no way, look at China, they're building, what, 40 coal plants a day. There's no way that you're going to stop emissions, whether it becomes something we can't deal with 50 years from now. Did you see earlier this month, the whole idea of rising sea levels? That was all game. That was a lot of the, a lot of the projections. Anything that went against that, that dogma or that narrative, well, you couldn't get it published. You couldn't.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I don't think he's taking your position, Joe, that the climate change is not happening at all. I think he's saying.

[Joe Kernen]

I'm not saying it's a crisis. He's now gotten to the point where he doesn't think it's necessarily an apocalyptic crisis.

[Becky Quick]

And by the way, he said very specifically in the Letter that there are issues that are going to affect the poorest people in the world. Much more drastically, that this is not going to affect the poor.

[Joe Kernen]

I'm going to have some water from my plastic bottle and I'm going to throw it in the ocean that you stole from Fiji.

[Becky Quick]

And why is Fiji now sinking in.

[Joe Kernen]

The ocean only from not.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I also asked him if he is worried about whether we are in an AI bubble. Here's what he had to say.

[Bill Gates]

We need to define bubble. If what we mean is like tulips in the Netherlands that they eventually look back and said, what the heck, there was nothing there. Those were just tulips. No, that's not where we are. If you mean it's like the Internet bubble where in the end something very profound happened. The world was very different. Some companies succeeded, but a lot of the companies were kind of. Me too, fell behind. Burning capital companies. Absolutely. There are a ton of these investments that will be dead ends.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And you look at all the investments that are being made today by some of the big tech companies, some companies who are not making money on AI yet, but are making massive commitments to, to chip makers and data centers and say, this math makes sense.

[Bill Gates]

The AI is the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime. I mean, it is so profound and therefore its influence is hard to overstate. And the economic value, this is basically intelligence. You know, where you can get medical advice, you can get a tutor, or you can get somebody to help you design drugs. So the value is extremely high. Just like creating the Internet ended up being in net, very, very valuable. But you have a frenzy. And some of these companies will be glad they spent all this money. Some of them, they'll commit to data centers whose electricity is too expensive that it could be done overseas. Or they'll buy a generation of chips and, you know, they won't have captured all their value before the next one comes along. But, you know, if you want to be a tech company, you don't get to say no. You know, let's check out of this race.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What do you think the public appetite for this is ultimately going to be? And I ask because I think there's concerns about two things that are happening right now. One is energy costs. So there's a whole bunch of places where people want to put data centers. And you know, the community says, no, we don't want this because we don't want to have to spend more money for power to power our own homes. At the same time, they're worried that if they actually are successful, they'll also lose their jobs.

[Bill Gates]

We need to put things like terrapowered nuclear reactors in places where it's very clear that you're not raising the residents electricity bills, because that's being put in there. Historically, nuclear was done in a way that the utility bore a lot of that liability, that that business model won't get repeated. So we need to make sure to pick locations where the economics and the political acceptance is very, very strong. We don't have permission to drive up people's electricity costs. You know, in terms of the jobs, this is going to take some period of time. But yes, although it hasn't been seen in large numbers over the next several years, there will be some impact on the job market. Nowadays, when you say that some people are like, oh, how can you say that? Isn't that going to slow the US down in this race? But it's only honest for people to speak frankly about the fact that this will have a big effect on the job market.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And of course, Gates is a longtime capitalist, so I talked to him about the industrial policy coming from the White House, including the US Taking stakes in rare earth and chip companies. Here's what he had to say.

[Bill Gates]

Government operates best when it's kind of predictable. That is when you know what, you know, what are the tariffs going to be for the next 20 years? Because when you build a factory. So the government shouldn't be changing its policies policy every year or every day because predictability is a very, very important thing. Understanding when the company's helping nascent technology, is it doing that for the good of the country and treating companies equally, or will it want to own part of those companies and if somebody has better technology, they'll favor the company they own part of? We need to understand what those policies are. Yes, I think there's a rush of people to say, wow, you know, maybe that's how to, you know, get to the front of the line for government money. But the rules of the game we're playing are pretty unclear right now.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Bill Gates speaking out on so many issues. I imagine going to be creating a debate around what he said about the climate this morning, at least among some climate activists. As you, he sort of shifts his focus and sort of the metrics that he's thinking about that issue and then his comments about AI and a potential AI bubble and industrial policy as well. Becky?

[Becky Quick]

Yeah, it's been a while since we've heard some of these things from Bill and weighing in just on the industrial policy where he thinks all of this stuff is pretty interesting. What was your biggest takeaway, Andrew?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You know, I thought that his. Look, I think the issue on climate is actually going to be the big issue because for so long along so many companies and Bill Gates and others have talked about climate in a particular way and there's been such a focus on temperature and carbon emissions as sort of almost a singular focus. And, and his conversation today about thinking about those trade offs I think is going to ignite a new conversation about climate. I imagine that conversation will not be as nuanced as he's hoping it will be, but I imagine that he's, he's trying to generate a conversation in that regard. And then I think actually some of his comments about just an AI bubble, at least in my mind, are spot on, which is to say AI is so exciting and is the future. But there is likely to be a hiccup at some point along the way, right?

[Joe Kernen]

Literally since the movie we have heard doom and gloom forecasts of an existential threat in our lifetime since from this. Well, that's why what's right. I know, I know. But since that no ice in the Arctic by 2005. Meanwhile, Al Gore, how wealthy has he become from all of his investments in what I think will eventually turn out to be, as I've said so many times, a fool's errand. And maybe in that respect it is notable that it's to even acknowledge it's not the existential crisis of our time, which we heard from Joe Biden every time he was in front of a microphone a about how.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And that's why I think it's going to create a debate maybe politicians among.

[Joe Kernen]

Anyone ever if anyone ever cared what Bill Gates from my point of view, if anyone who ever cared about what he was saying in the first place.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I like that he's got people did and followed follow this path. I mean I know that conversation. Look at all of the companies net zero policies for the last several years. We've invested enormous amounts of money in this space. The question is are they going to. I mean he's actually saying he's hoping they don't let up on that. So it's going to be very interesting to see how people say reactive.

[Becky Quick]

If you don't have federal government incentives pushing that, you're much less likely to get it. Just look at the EV, the electric vehicle pickup without the incentives, the $7,500 apiece that you get as a discount on those things without federal dollars behind it. My guess is the companies won't if there's not tax Incentives, you know, the money probably won't flow in the same way.

[Joe Kernen]

I'm just saying a lot of people came to this realization a long time ago, Andrew. And I know he created Microsoft and Word or whatever, you know, I know he knows a lot about software. A lot of people never took any. I'm glad he cares about the welfare of children now, though, given some of the other.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

He's been caring about the welfare of children the whole time, Joe.

[Joe Kernen]

I know. No, I'm making, no, I'm making a double on, you know, I'm not going to go there. I won't go there. But it's good, it's good that he's, you know, suddenly has climate worried about kids and being impacted by. There are people that aren't having babies, Andrew, because they don't want to bring kids into a world where they think there's going to be fire and brimstone falling from the sky. From what climate zealots have been preaching.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I get, look, I think he's been, you know, focused on, you know, measles and polio and AIDS and trying to save, you know, tens of thousands of people.

[Joe Kernen]

You're not catching my drift. You're not catching my drift. I'm not going to go there.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But I'm saying almost singularly, there's very few people on this planet that have an authentic claim on being able to say that they've saved that many lives. So think about that trade off.

[Joe Kernen]

Well, okay, you want to talk about vaccines, Andrew, and you know, that's another controversial subject that I'm not sure I care what he thinks about. Those either eradicated polio.

[Katie Kramer]

Still to come on squawk pod, a familiar face up there on the podium at the New York Stock Exchange ringing the opening bell. 96 years after the first domino fell for the Great Depression, we now have an sec.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We actually have rules. There was manipulation going down on the floor of this exchange.

[Katie Kramer]

We now have bank capital rules, lessons from 1929. Up next.

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[Katie Kramer]

Welcome back to Squawk Pod.

[Becky Quick]

You're watching SquawkBox right here on CNBC. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan, and we're at the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. Andrew Ross Sorkin is reporting from the New York Stock Exchange this morning. And, Andrew, it is a big day there.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

It's a big day. It's a big day, I should say, for me in a way, because today I'm going to be ringing the opening bell here at the New York Stock Exchange. It is October 28th, and this is an important day in the history of, well, this stock market because back in 1929, October 28th was a black Monday. And there are so many lessons that I learned in the course of writing this book. And if you can see, I mean, this is for me, the coolest thing. I don't know if you can see. They have the book everywhere up here today. And my parents are coming down here and my kids are coming down here and my wife, wife's coming down here. So we're going to be ringing the bell at 9:30. And I couldn't be more excited about it. This is really this is where it all happened.

[Becky Quick]

It's, yeah, I was going to say, Andrew, we should ring the bell for you here. But really, the New York Stock Exchange was the epicenter of all of this.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This was it. This was it. The roar, the roar in this room back then was so loud you could actually hear it outside. I mean, that's what was going on back then. It was, it was just incredible. But here we are. And I don't want to say we're celebrating 1929. We are not. We're celebrating some of the lessons from 1929. Hopefully, we'll all learn so that we don't have another crash ever again like that.

[1-800-Flowers Announcer]

Right?

[Becky Quick]

This was the kids, your parents are going to be there.

[Joe Kernen]

Was this the worst day? Oh, sorry. Was this the worst day, Andrew?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah. So interestingly, we're going to talk a little bit we're going to talk a little bit more about this in just a little bit because I'm actually walking around the floor and show you some things. This was, oddly enough, people talk about, people talk about a Black Thursday. There was a Black Monday and a Black Tuesday. Today was the day that the market dropped 13%. Tomorrow again tomorrow. Back in 1929, the market dropped about 12%. Collectively, those two days represented a 25. A 25% downdraft.

[Joe Kernen]

48 hours, one day. I'm sure it's in your book. What was it? 26% in one. What was it in 87, do you remember?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

In 87?

[Joe Kernen]

In 87. I think a one day plunge was even worse than.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

100%. I believe, I believe it was, it was worse than. But I think if you collected what was happening, I mean, that's why people think of 1929 as they all think it happened on one day. If you started to really go back and look between that Thursday and then that Tuesday, and frankly, if you just extend it out just a little bit more, you know, you ended up basically down close to 50% within just a couple of weeks. And that was, that was really what did it.

[Joe Kernen]

Yeah, 20. I'm sorry, 22.6%. Which was why even people. Look in that year when it happened in 87, people were looking back at 29. Right. And it was, it was even in it that started on like the Friday before. And this, this started a couple of days before the 28th too, didn't it, Andrew?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah, no, no, this started the 24th. That Thursday was, was, was the big day. The distinction between 87 and frankly, happily every other crisis was there was not nearly the same kind of margin at the time. Meaning, you know, so many Americans had been trading for the very first time in their whole lives, they had gone to brokerage houses where they'd put down a dollar and effectively were being lent $10 for every dollar that they'd been handed. And so it wasn't just that the market had dropped, you know, 13% one day or 11% the next day. It was that that was wiping you out completely because you were having to either sell your home, mortgage your home or whatever, literally elite, just to pay.

[Joe Kernen]

The probably still owed.

[Becky Quick]

Coverage is always the problem. We've also seen a lot of the federal government's intervention since then too.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Becky and Joe, I am on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for what I have to tell you may be one of the most exciting days for me. You know, I'd written this book Too Big to Too Big to Fail. I'd written this book 1929, that just came out about two weeks ago. And it is about this. It is about what happened here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange 96 years ago. And it is the anniversary, October 28th of Black Monday. Stock market fell 13% in 1929 that day. The next day it dropped another 11%. And by the middle of November, November 13th, the stock market had dropped. Dropped about 50% in total. I'm going to be up there in just a little bit, ringing the opening bell this morning. My family's going to be here along with my parents. And I could not be more excited about all of this. I just wanted to say, you know, we often talk about parallels between 1929 and now. We talk about bubbles and all sorts of things. But I'm hoping actually that there's some lessons that have been learned and actually some. Some important differences. So, one important difference, you see the stock prices on the board up there, and those are up to the minute, up to the second and up to the millisecond. Back then, in 1929, that board was often out of sync with what was actually happening, oftentimes by hours. It was behind. The technology has gotten so much better since then. We now have an sec. We actually have rules. There was manipulation going down on the floor of this exchange. We now have bank capital rules. We have all sorts of things that I am hopeful are some of the lessons that came out of 1929. And I'm hoping that as we, even if we are in some kind of a bubble or something else, that if we ever tip over even just a little bit, it may not be nearly what took place then, of course, the crash in 1929, the first domino in what ultimately led to the Great Depression. And I tried in my own way to write about all of this based on transcripts and notes and all sorts of things to get you inside the room. So you're with these characters. I don't know if they've been showing some of these characters on the board. I saw Winston Churchill. They put a picture of Winston Churchill up here. Winston Churchill had been on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in October as the crash was literally happening. It was one of the most disgusting, astonishing things. And you get to actually be in the room and see all of that in the book.

[Joe Kernen]

Andrew, do you have the gavel? That thing comes off sometime. Be careful.

[Becky Quick]

It flies off him in just a few minutes.

[Bill Gates]

It is Andrew Ross Sorkin, our co worker at Squawk Box, celebrating the release of his book 1929 Inside the Greatest crash in Wall street history and how it shattered a nation.

[Katie Kramer]

And that is Squawk Pod for today, this October 28, 96 years after Black Monday. Thanks for listening. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. You can tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern or follow Squawk Pod wherever you're listening now. And get this podcast in your feed every single day. Have a great Tuesday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

[Eamon Javers]

We are clear.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Thanks guys.

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