Squawk Pod - December 30, 2025

Episode Title: California Wealth Tax & Top AI Picks for 2026
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Mike Santoli, Leslie Picker
Producer: Katie Kramer
Notable Guests: Ben Narrison (Tenacity Venture Capital), Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities)

Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod centers on two big stories: a fiery debate over California’s proposed wealth tax—which threatens a “tech billionaire exodus”—and a look ahead at the top artificial intelligence (AI) stock picks for 2026. In addition, the hosts discuss market swings in metals, a contentious shake-up at Lululemon, the future of the Federal Reserve, and the growing impact of AI and retail tech on the economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Metals Market Volatility (01:53–03:51)

• Overview: Significant price swings in metals; silver suffered its worst day since 2021, while copper is experiencing its longest winning streak since 2017.
• Drivers: Profit-taking, increased margin requirements, supply chain shortages, tariffs, and speculative flows (“hot money”) are cited as causes.
• Meta’s AI Acquisition: Meta acquired AI agent developer Manus for over $2B, part of a larger strategy to secure AI talent and tech. The deal comes with geopolitical undertones, given Manus’s Chinese origins and move to Singapore.

Quote:
“There's so much hot money in metals right now... we're seeing the pressure settles of the whip end of it.”
— Joe Kernen (02:37)

2. Fed Controversy and Policy (04:33–06:36)

• Background: President Trump is threatening to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, citing the cost of Fed building renovations. The succession timeline and Powell’s future remain unclear.
• Economic Context: Conversations around recent interest rate cuts and the elusive recession; markets haven’t responded as predicted.

Memorable Exchange:
“They better have good food. That's all at the Fed cafeteria after this. Or at Mar a Lago.”
— Becky Quick (04:51)

3. Lululemon Boardroom Drama (06:57–08:03)

• Event: Lululemon founder Chip Wilson launches a proxy fight, nominating new independent directors after CEO Calvin McDonald’s exit. The board’s response is cautious; shares have dropped 44% this year.

4. California’s Tech Wealth Tax Debate (09:46–20:12)

Guest: Ben Narrison, Founder, Tenacity Venture Capital

Summary

• Backdrop: California considers a 5% wealth tax targeting billionaires. Tech leaders and lawmakers are at odds, with some warning of a mass exodus.
• Ben Narrison’s Take:
  • Blasts the move as “political pandering,” arguing that California has a track record of fiscal mismanagement.
  • References the only “workable” wealth tax—Switzerland’s model—is modest and coupled with low income taxes, which is not the case in California.
  • Cites historic instances (e.g., France in the 1980s) when wealth taxes precipitated mass flight of high-net-worth individuals.

Notable Quotes:

• “It's pretty tough to be so... proven to be poor at your job of spending money that isn't yours and then to ask for more.”
  — Ben Narrison (10:53)
• “This is political pandering to the proletariat... It has no basis in anything that works.”
  — Ben Narrison (11:18)
• “Everybody uses the example of the Bezos of the world... but what about the dry cleaner... and 100% of his or her net worth is in that asset…?”
  — Ben Narrison (17:18)

Further Insights

• Penalizing “extremes” (billionaires) also hurts “hardworking people that are sort of getting there.”
• Warns of unintended consequences: “The best and brightest” may leave Silicon Valley, and capital will follow.
• Argues it’s unfair to single out billionaires; “Money is fungible. People can move.”
• Swiss-style wealth tax seen as workable only because it is modest, and overall tax structure is business-friendly.
• Even a “one-time” wealth tax would likely become permanent.

5. Reverse Logistics: The High Cost of Returns (22:50–28:26)

Reporter: Courtney Reagan

• Big Numbers: 16% of US retail purchases ($850B) in 2025 are returned, costing retailers $75B.
• AI’s Role: Companies are using AI to optimize returns: determining when to restock, liquidate, or landfill, and increasingly personalizing return policies.
• Consumer Impact: Retailers are tightening return policies (shorter windows, fees, more exchanges instead of refunds)—a four-year trend.
• Bracketing Trend: Online shoppers frequently buy multiple sizes/colors with the intent to return—return rate for online apparel is 22% versus 6% for in-store.

Memorable Moment:
“I love reverse logistics... I mean, I like cheese. It's a thing people know that know me. And so I get cheese boards and cheese knives.”
— Courtney Reagan (28:13)

6. Top AI and Tech Stock Picks for 2026 (29:30–37:22)

Guest: Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities

• Top Picks: Microsoft, Apple, Palantir, CrowdStrike, Tesla.
• Thesis: AI investment “multiplies” across tech: “For every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip, there's an 8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of tech.” (Dan Ives, 31:08)
• Apple: Expected to benefit from a “consumer AI revolution” fueled by a looming Google partnership; $75/share of additional value from AI engagement anticipated.
• Tesla: Autonomous vehicles/robotics estimated to be worth $1T to company value; US is now ahead of China in tech, with Tesla leading “physical AI.”
• Palantir: Potential to reach $1T market cap in next 2–3 years, per Ives.
• CrowdStrike: Cybersecurity’s importance amid the cloud/AI revolution makes it a standout; “stock has a 6 in front of it as we go into end of 26, potentially a 7.” (Dan Ives, 36:07)
• Other Names: Broadcom discussed; inclusion debated but not on the immediate "top 5" list.
• Apple’s “Green Text” Meme: Lighthearted discussion of iPhone vs non-iPhone users.

Memorable Exchange:
“If someone does have green, is that not an apple when you're texting them?...”
“Well, no, but usually that's why we usually delete them from our text chain. I mean, when someone's a green. So that's always a red flag.”
— Becky Quick and Dan Ives (32:46–33:01)

• Fashion Sidebar: Ives's colorful wardrobe is discussed as boosting his profile. “If you're wrong in your stock picks, no one cares about the fact [you're well dressed].” (Dan Ives, 37:03)
• Elon Musk/Tesla vs Google: Dan Ives favors Tesla's scale in autonomy over Waymo's limited city rollout.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:53 – Metals market and AI acquisition news
• 04:33 – Presidential drama over the Federal Reserve
• 06:57 – Proxy battle at Lululemon
• 09:46 – Introduction to California wealth tax debate
• 10:53 – Ben Narrison on state fiscal mismanagement
• 13:39 – Tax policy, property rights and founder/entrepreneur impact
• 16:00 – Implications for entrepreneurship and Silicon Valley exodus
• 22:50 – Returns and retail AI with Courtney Reagan
• 29:30 – Top tech/AI picks for 2026 with Dan Ives
• 31:08 – Nvidia multiplier and overall thesis for AI megatrend
• 32:46 – “Green text” iPhone/Apple culture conversation
• 36:07 – CrowdStrike stock outlook and cybersecurity theme

Notable Quotes

Ben Narrison

• "This is political pandering to the proletariat... It has no basis in anything that works." (11:18)
• "If you penalize one extreme, you're going to penalize the hardworking person that's sort of getting there." (12:53, reprised at 13:39)

Dan Ives

• "For every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip, there's an 8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of tech." (31:08)
• "I think 80% of the market is going to be owned by Tesla over the coming years. And I think this really starts the autonomous chapter..." (34:49)

Tone and Style

• Direct, deeply analytical: Ben Narrison and Dan Ives provide unvarnished, sometimes skeptical views, balanced with optimism for specific innovation themes.
• Lighthearted Interludes: Banter about the Fed cafeteria, returns of cheese knives, and iPhone text color provide levity.
• Actionable, investor-focused takeaways: The discussions are pointed at investors, entrepreneurs, and policymakers interested in tech disruption, tax policy, and market outlook.

Summary for Listeners

This episode offers a dense, insightful dive into the clash between fiscal policy and Silicon Valley, practical ramifications for founders and venture capital, and a bullish but selective take on where the AI and tech revolution is heading. The discussions with Ben Narrison and Dan Ives provide hard-nosed skepticism on political posturing, taxation, and “killing the golden goose,” balanced by pragmatic optimism about tech’s future—even as California teeters on driving out its best and its brightest.

If you want clarity on how policy, AI, and the tech ecosystem are shaping 2026, and enjoy the signature wit of Squawk Pod’s hosts and guests, this episode delivers.