Squawk Pod – March 13, 2026 – “China Trade Pressure & TSA Workers Miss First Paycheck”

Hosts: Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Featured Guests: U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer, Former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, CNBC’s Robert Frank, CNBC’s Dan Murphy

Episode Overview

This episode dives deeply into the intersection of geopolitics, economic security, and American domestic policy. From tensions in the Middle East impacting oil markets and global trade relations, to legal wrangling over tariffs, to how Congressional gridlock is leaving TSA workers unpaid, the Squawk Box team hosts expert guests for in-depth discussions and firsthand insights.

Key focuses:

• The latest on the Iran conflict’s impact on oil and global trade
• U.S.-China trade relations and new Section 301 investigations
• The struggle and stress of unpaid TSA officers amid a partial DHS shutdown
• Populist tax proposals targeting the ultra-wealthy—and their chances in Congress

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Middle East Tensions and Oil Market Volatility

[02:33–07:54]

Iran War’s Ripple Effects

• News: A U.S. KC-135 aircraft crashed in western Iraq (non-hostile cause pending investigation), against the backdrop of continued U.S. operations in the region.
• Crude Prices: WTI above $95, Brent over $100/barrel—the highest since 2022.
• Drone Attack in Dubai:
  • A drone/missile incident struck the facade of the Dubai Innovation One building, near Nasdaq Dubai and CNBC facilities.
  • “There were reports of a loud explosion and smoke in the skyline... debris from a missile interception... no injuries reported.” – Dan Murphy [03:20]
• Financial Industry Impact:
  • Most banks and financial firms working remotely amid repeated threats; Dubai is “firmly in the crosshairs.” – Dan Murphy [06:58]
• Naval Escorts: U.S. military considering ship escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, though “traders [wonder] if that’s even going to be possible given how things seem to be escalating.” – Becky Quick [05:10]
• Iran Laying Mines: IRGC using swarms of small boats for mine-laying, as U.S. attempts to keep the strait clear.
  • “Iran is aiming to lay these mines faster than the US Navy can clear them... After their vessels were destroyed, they pivoted to these small, fast boats.” – Dan Murphy [05:34]

Geo-economic Responses

• The U.S. Treasury is authorizing purchases of Russian oil currently stranded at sea as a temporary market relief, despite ongoing sanctions. Waivers also granted to top importers like India.
• Chinese economy seen as vulnerable due to its dependence on Iranian oil and petrochemical feedstocks.

2. U.S.-China Trade Talks and New Tariff Investigations

[08:01–11:13; 13:06–21:43]

Setting the Stage

• U.S. officials, including Trade Rep. Jameson Greer, are heading to Paris for trade talks with Chinese counterparts ahead of anticipated meetings between Presidents Trump and Xi.
• The U.S. launches new “Section 301B” probes into 60+ countries over forced labor, as well as excess capacity investigations—the timing notably close to Supreme Court rulings invalidating certain tariffs.

In-Depth Interview: Ambassador Jameson Greer

[13:37–21:43]

• Main Objectives of Paris Trade Talks

  • “We want to ensure continued stability in the U.S.-China relationship. It's one of the most important economic relationships in the world.” – Jameson Greer [13:37]
  • Focus: stability, balanced trade, access to rare earths and manufacturing inputs

• Progress with China

  • “Our trade deficit with China in goods has gone down by 30% over the past year… Our imports from China in January were the lowest they’ve been since 2004.” – Greer [14:16]
  • A more “balanced relationship” is emerging, with U.S. efforts to shift trade to non-sensitive goods.

• Iran War’s Trade Impact

  • The conflict influences both the oil market and downstream Chinese industries:
    • “What you want to look is what are the feedstocks doing in China?... We have a lot of domestic feedstocks... [but] we’ll be watching how that might affect the Chinese economy.” – Greer [14:59]

• On Timeline and Resilience

  • “We're talking in terms of weeks... Our expectation is that any effects we see will be short-lived.” – Greer [15:55]
  • “The military is looking at a matter of weeks... missile launches and drones have gone down by 80–90% [from Iran].” – Greer [17:01]

• On Tariff Refunds, Supreme Court Ruling

  • Customs is building a portal to refund $165B in tariffs plus interest after the Supreme Court ruling.
  • Greer positions this as a result of Democratic attorneys general lobbying for money to go back to companies importing foreign goods:
    • "Their wish was to take money from the US Treasury... and give it back to companies who import foreign goods made by foreign workers." [18:36]
    • “Interest payments... are par for the course.” [18:36]
    • Suggests that any windfall should “go as bonuses to their workers.” [20:02]

• Upcoming Section 301 Investigations:

  • “They’re very process-driven, transparent. There’s an opportunity for hearing, for public comment... We’re trying to move in a matter of months.” [20:50]

3. Populist Tax Proposals Targeting High Earners

[24:03–30:09]

• “Working Americans Tax Cut Act” Analysis – Robert Frank:
  • Exempts income up to $46,000 (single) and $92,000 (couples) from federal taxes; raises top rates to 59% for $5M+ earners.
    • “For someone in New York City making over $5 million a year, the top combined state, city, and federal rate would be over 73%.” – Robert Frank [24:18]
  • Washington State poised to pass its first-ever income tax—prompting high-profile departures (e.g. Howard Schultz).
  • Quote: “What’s notable is... they’re saying: we’re going to raise taxes on the wealthy and give tax cuts for everyone else.” – Robert Frank [26:34]
  • Political calculation is to force opponents into a “vote against a tax cut for 60% of Americans.”
  • Frank notes: “0 likelihood of passing” in the current Congress, but it sets the narrative for the next election cycle.

4. TSA Workers & Homeland Security: Unpaid and Overstressed

[30:14–40:46]

Jeh Johnson, Former DHS Secretary, on the Human and Security Cost

• TSA Officers Missing First Full Paycheck due to a partial funding shutdown over political gridlock.

  • “Your average TSO... they live paycheck to paycheck when they’re getting paid. Morale traditionally in TSA is low and now we’re forcing them to go to work without being paid at all.” – Jeh Johnson [31:08]
  • Communities organizing food and essentials drives for unpaid TSA staff.

• Security Implications

  • “It puts the agency and its workers under a tremendous amount of stress at a time when there is no doubt a heightened security environment because we've gone to war against a nation that is a state sponsor of terrorism.” – Johnson [31:08]
  • “I won't say that passengers... are at risk. Any heightened risk. I think generally here in the homeland there is a heightened security threat environment because of the fact that Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism.” [32:18]
  • DHS is defunded and “basically shut down for almost a month now.” [32:09]

• Political Football

  • “... whoever’s in the minority... [says] this is their only tool. Eleven years ago I heard that from Republicans. So this is my message to both Democrats and Republicans: ... Don’t link it to funding the government.” [35:07]
  • “The workers are the political footballs, and so often the workers have no voice in this fight.” [35:07]
  • “How many other contexts in American life do you know where someone is forced to go to work and not get paid, especially if it’s a vital mission like aviation security?” [35:58]

• Threat of Sleeper Cells & Lone Wolf Attacks

  • “Terrorist organizations are not like conventional armies… for every terrorist you kill, you might inspire two more.” [37:39]
  • “There is the possibility of the lone wolf… sympathetic to the [terrorist] cause, [who] carries out an act of violence.” [38:24]
  • “Very often you could be taking somebody off the battlefield, but then you inspire two more.” [39:22]

• Operational Impacts

  • The National Terrorism Advisory System website is offline due to budget issues:
    • "There's a big red banner that says due to lack of funding, this site is not being managed." – Jeh Johnson [40:20]

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• “It’s one of the most important economic relationships in the world.”
  — Jameson Greer on U.S.-China trade [13:37]
• “Our trade deficit with China in goods has gone down by 30% over the past year.”
  — Greer [14:16]
• “There were reports of a loud explosion and smoke in the skyline.”
  — Dan Murphy on Dubai drone incident [03:20]
• “It puts the agency and its workers under a tremendous amount of stress... at a time when there is no doubt a heightened security environment.”
  — Jeh Johnson on TSA and security risks [31:08]
• “The workers are the political footballs, and so often the workers have no voice in this fight.”
  — Jeh Johnson (re: TSA funding) [35:07]
• “How many other contexts in American life do you know where someone is forced to go to work and not get paid...?”
  — Jeh Johnson [35:58]
• “What’s notable is... they’re saying: we’re going to raise taxes on the wealthy and give tax cuts for everyone else.”
  — Robert Frank [26:34]

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment / Topic | Time | |--------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Market & Middle East Update / Iran / Oil | 02:33–07:54| | U.S.–China Trade probes / Tariffs | 08:01–11:13| | BuzzFeed business update | 09:48–10:59| | Interview: Ambassador Jameson Greer | 13:06–21:43| | Populist Tax Proposals Discussion | 24:03–30:09| | TSA Paycheck Crisis & Jeh Johnson Interview | 30:14–40:46|

Tone & Takeaways

• Urgency and Realism: Whether on international security, trade policy, or the plight of federal workers, guests and hosts stress the seriousness and interconnectedness of the moment.
• Political Frustration: Both hosts and guests voice dismay at partisan gridlock holding basic government functions hostage, especially when national security is at stake.
• Populist Undercurrents: The Democratic tax proposals point toward a deepening populist drive in U.S. politics.

For more:
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