Google’s AI Reshuffle, Calls to the Fed, A Great Wealth Transfer 08/06/26

Summary

Squawk Pod Episode Summary
Date: August 6, 2026
Episode Title: Google’s AI Reshuffle, Calls to the Fed, A Great Wealth Transfer
Hosts: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Joe Kernan
Guests: Mark Haines, Roger Ferguson, Sharon Epperson

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into three timely themes dominating the economic and tech landscape in August 2026:

• The Federal Reserve’s policy direction and reported communications between President Trump and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
• Major leadership changes and strategic questions at Google’s AI division.
• The evolving “Great Wealth Transfer” as baby boomers pass down unprecedented sums—including homes—to the next generation.

A blend of market insight, high-level debate, and practical advice anchors this news-packed show, featuring live banter, expert interviews, and elegant commentary on the present and future state of markets and technology.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Markets & Financial Leverage

Segment begins ~04:43

• Jamie Dimon’s Warning: Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, highlights that margin debt is at record highs, including hidden leverage in varying forms (hedge funds, ETFs). He cautions that such leverage can amplify volatility, especially if a single investor triggers market selling.

  • Quote: “Margin debt is the highest it’s ever been... It’s not, I’m not going to say it’s systemic-high, it’s going to cause a disaster, but it’s high.” [04:56]

• Market Complacency: The hosts reference Tom Lee’s prediction—before a surge to S&P 8,000, there could be a sharp pullback ("a trip down to the six handles"). They debate whether bullishness is blinding investors to risks, and that a “scary” market event may be needed to reset expectations.

  • Quote: “I just think right now it just can’t go up like this every day. And we’re going to be at 9,000 on the S and P.” —Mark Haines [06:28]
  • Quote: “A quick break, a quick break of, of 10-12%. Something like.” —Mark Haines [06:56]

• SpaceX Lockup Expiry: SpaceX, recently public, is about to see a huge number of insider shares become sellable, which could trigger instability. The team wonders how much this is already “baked in.”

  • Quote: “That means that insiders who acquired stock before the company had gone public will have a chance to sell... The question is whether some of this might already be marginally priced in…” —Andrew Ross Sorkin [08:00]

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2. Government Intervention & the Intel Boom

Segment begins ~09:10

• SoftBank/Intel Windfall: SoftBank saw a big gain thanks to its Intel investment, which soared after the Trump administration encouraged business with Intel and increased government support.

• Debate on Government’s Role: The hosts discuss how much Intel’s success is due to government pressure versus company performance. Sorkin suggests a blend—government push leads to more business, not just improved internal ability.

  • Quote: “Because of the relationship with the government, are other companies doing business with Intel today because there has been pressure...?” —Andrew Ross Sorkin [10:29]

• Defense Budgets & Munitions Shortages: The show reviews media reports of U.S. weapons shortages, contrasting political rhetoric with ground realities. There’s skepticism about efficiency promised by defense tech, noting that instead of delivering savings, costs have skyrocketed.

  • Quote: “The whole conversation about lowering the total defense budget through all this sort of new technology has gone out the window.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin [14:00]

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3. Trump, the Fed, and Central Bank Independence

Fed topics segment begins ~15:47 | Returns in detail after 18:22

• Direct Communication: President Trump is reportedly calling Fed Chair Kevin Warsh regularly, asking about economic impacts of the Iran war, AI evolution, and more. There’s no evidence he’s tried to persuade on rates.

  • Quote: “The president has reportedly asked Warsh for his opinion on how the Iran war, how the rise of AI—all affecting the American economy… Has not brought up the topic of interest rates.” —Mark Haines [18:28]

• Historical Context: Roger Ferguson (former Fed Vice Chair) comments that President-chair conversations aren’t abnormal if focused on the economy. The risk here is Trump’s history of public criticism of the Fed, which raises concerns about independence.

  • Quote: “These conversations go on quite frequently… I think here it’s a little riskier insofar as we know this President has been very clearly dismissive in some sense, certainly critical of Fed policy. And so, you know, Kevin Warsh needs to show… a strong degree of independence.” —Roger Ferguson [30:16]

• Interest Rate Outlook: Ferguson doubts three rate hikes are coming, as some expect, but allows for two given persistent inflation. He stresses that inflation hasn’t cooled enough and the Fed needs to defend its credibility.

  • Quote: “I don’t think we get three, but I pendulum and a possibility of two this time or this year or early next year. The inflation pressures are not going to subside quickly enough.” —Roger Ferguson [24:02]

• Transparency & Market Communication: Ferguson says ongoing Fed-Treasury back-and-forth and recent public debates highlight the need for clear, transparent communication.

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4. Google’s AI Shakeup

Major segment at 20:30, continued at 31:20

• Leadership Changes: Google announces AI chief scientist Jeff Dean’s departure after 27 years. Demis Hassabis is promoted to lead DeepMind and become Alphabet’s chief scientist. The hosts call both “OGs” of AI, and note this is raising big questions for Google’s AI trajectory and its competition with OpenAI and Anthropic.

  • Quote: “He really is the OG of the AI movement really more than anything else. And so many of the people who went on to OpenAI and Anthropic… started at DeepMind. This is really where it all began.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin [21:24]

• Product Confusion & Strengths: Mark Haines asks about differences between Google’s AI search, Gemini, and competitors. Sorkin explains Gemini’s chat orientation versus the AI summaries in search. Both agree Google’s core AI remains competitive, though the future is uncertain post-reshuffle.

  • Quote: “If you’re on Gemini… it’s much more of a chat experience, much more similar to what you’re doing with a ChatGPT or with a Claude.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin [22:07]

• Ferguson’s Board Perspective: Roger Ferguson demurs on details but expresses confidence in Alphabet’s deep leadership bench.

  • Quote: “I am calm and comfortable with the leadership team… These moves are part of a natural progression…” —Roger Ferguson [31:46]

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5. The Great Wealth Transfer & Inheriting Homes

[Main story begins 35:56, detailed discussion at 36:28]

• Unprecedented Sums: Sharon Epperson highlights that over $120 trillion is expected to change hands in two decades, with family homes now a huge component as baby boomers pass away.

  • Quote: “More than $120 trillion—what, with a T?—is expected to change hands over the next 20 years.” —Mark Haines [35:56]
  • Quote: “Inherited property accounted for nearly 9% of property transfers in 2025—a record high.” —Sharon Epperson [36:28]

• Emotional & Financial Challenges: Heirs struggle with decisions about keeping, selling, renting, or maintaining family homes. Epperson and her guests stress the importance of open family conversations, understanding both financial and logistical burdens, and creating clear plans.

  • Quote: “The home is an asset, and a lot of people want to put emotional ties to it. It’s a large asset that needs a conversation around it.” —Addison Lawrence [37:18]
  • Quote: “Regardless of whatever the house might yield to us personally, there’s an emotional attachment… and so that'll be something that we end up weighing along with the financial pieces.” —Ashton Lawrence [38:09]
  • Quote: “What is still owed on the house, if there’s still a mortgage, knowing what the property taxes are going to be... People need to know: Who’s going to manage the house while you still own it? Once—if you do decide to sell it—how is that going to be distributed?” —Sharon Epperson [38:49 / 41:11]

• Advice for Families: Begin conversations early and revisit them periodically. Set clear timetables to avoid years of indecision and property decay.

  • Quote: “Having some type of timeline—in six months, in a year, we’re going to have made a decision one way or another—I think that's important.” —Sharon Epperson [40:37]

---

6. CEO Confidence and Risk Factors

Segment begins at 32:18

• Cautious Optimism: Roger Ferguson discusses a new Conference Board/Business Council CEO confidence survey, showing a slight increase in optimism, but still “cautious,” not a surge.

  • Quote: “It’s a slight uptick; it’s not a big surge… I wouldn’t look at this as a major change.” —Roger Ferguson [32:36]

• Top Risks: Cybersecurity tops the list; AI’s uncertainty has edged out geopolitical risks for the first time, seen as both a threat and opportunity by corporate leaders.

  • Quote: “Cyber is the top risk. AI has now edged out geopolitics as the second highest risk. What’s interesting about AI, it’s really a double-edged sword.” —Roger Ferguson [33:23]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Risk:

  • “So how do you shake out the complacency right now? You do something scary, I think.” —Mark Haines [06:39]

• On President-Fed Relations:

  • “We know this president has been very clearly dismissive in some sense, certainly critical of Fed policy.” —Roger Ferguson [16:01]

• On the Emotional Side of Inheritance:

  • “Some kids are like, don’t ever leave the house, Mom and Dad. Well, do you want to pay for the property taxes?... Ongoing conversations, it’s not one conversation. It’s ongoing conversations that need to be.” —Sharon Epperson [34:04, 39:19]

• On the Value Shift:

  • “The new new, new millions is billions, and billions are now trillions.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin [41:41]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [04:43] Jamie Dimon’s leverage warning
• [05:53] Market complacency and risk of a correction
• [08:00] SpaceX lockup expiration
• [09:10] SoftBank/Intel & government support
• [12:00] US munitions shortages, defense budget
• [15:47] Trump–Fed Warsh calls (intro)
• [20:30] Google AI reshuffle—news and implications
• [24:02] Ferguson’s Fed rate outlook
• [30:16] Roger Ferguson on President–Fed independence
• [32:18] CEO confidence and risk factors
• [35:56] The Great Wealth Transfer / Inheriting Homes
• [38:49] Sharon Epperson’s advice
• [41:21] Soaring home values and generational shifts

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Conclusion

This Squawk Pod episode offers a lively, multifaceted snapshot of the forces shaping financial markets, AI-driven innovation, and generational wealth in mid-2026. It balances deep-dive expert analysis with practical, kitchen-table financial advice, all delivered in the signature, conversational (and occasionally irreverent) Squawk Box style.

Whether you’re concerned with investment risk, navigating new technologies, or preparing for the oncoming transfer of assets and homes, this episode delivers the insight—and the frank dialogue—to help you understand the moment.

Transcript

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[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

bring in show music please.

[Joe Kernan]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, we are here again. Inflation versus the economy. What year is it? Former Federal Reserve Vice chair Roger Ferguson on the policy debates that will drive the rest of 2026.

[Roger Ferguson]

I don't think we get three, but I pendulum and a possibility of two this time or this year or early next year. The inflation pressures are not going to subside quickly enough.

[Joe Kernan]

Aging baby boomers and rising house prices contributing to an unusual personal finance quandary.

[Mark Haines]

More than $120 trillion. What with a T?

[Joe Kernan]

What to do if you are set to inherit a house? Sharon Epperson with news you can use.

[Sharon Epperson]

Who's going to manage the house while you still own it? Once if you do decide to sell it, how is that going to be distributed?

[Joe Kernan]

Plus the rest of today's news that got us squawking. Jamie Dimon on the markets, Spider, SpaceX investors, Payday and fears of a US weapons shortage.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

The whole conversation about lowering the total defense budget through all this sort of new technology has gone out the window.

[Joe Kernan]

It is Thursday, August 6, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Stand Andrew. Five, three, two, one, up.

[Roger Ferguson]

And Andrew.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Good morning and welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live the NASDAQ markets in Times Square. Mandras Sorkin along with Joe Kernan. Becky is off. So it is just the boys back. When did you get back from Aspen?

[Mark Haines]

When did you get back?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You said back last night and I got back last.

[Mark Haines]

You've already, I don't know, indicated that the aura ring's not great or.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, I was just indicating. I was traveling all day and you're tired.

[Mark Haines]

You need a break. Yeah. So it's going To. So this is going to be my problem.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, I wasn't. I wasn't complaining about it. I was just suggesting that, you know, you're in. I need to be.

[Mark Haines]

You were in private and I'm sure. Yeah, yeah. You were in Aspen and I'm sure you weren't back with, you know, in a middle seat.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I was flying United. They did a lovely job, by the way. And I want a note about United.

[Mark Haines]

Yes, totally.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

How much do you think this is a big deal.

[Mark Haines]

You're flying United with whom?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I was like, just the airline.

[Mark Haines]

Okay.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

They now have Starlink.

[Mark Haines]

They. I know that and we've talked about

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

this, but I think this is going to be huge.

[Mark Haines]

Seamless, isn't it?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And I. It was. Mine was only on the short flight, not the long flight back from Eastern to Denver.

[Mark Haines]

You can't get there.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But amazing.

[Mark Haines]

And put you in a good mood.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But my point is, I wonder what it's going to mean to the other airlines for the next couple of years. I think if you were traveling, for example, from New York to L. A for the next couple of years, you had a choice between Starlink or no Starlink. You choose Starlink.

[Mark Haines]

So what are you saying? That you would not sell your SpaceX shares?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This probably. I don't know if it's a commentary on SpaceX shares because that's a whole different valuation. I'm thinking more about the airlines themselves in this.

[Mark Haines]

So you don't think. You're not.

[Roger Ferguson]

But.

[Mark Haines]

But starlink is a great service.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Great service.

[Mark Haines]

So in that respect, it is a commentary on.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

On the. It's a great service. What I don't know about the valuation of Space X is so many. What's the important parts of what's. What's the value?

[Mark Haines]

That we've tried to figure that out. What the universe is value. That's. And this is just one universe. Possibly we could be having the same discussion in some other universe right now and Andrew could be conservative and I could be.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

There you go.

[Mark Haines]

A communist.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, I don't know who you're referring to as a. I know. A communist.

[Roger Ferguson]

I know.

[Mark Haines]

I'm kidding.

[CDW AI Expert]

That's.

[Mark Haines]

That's the latest buzzword with after this guy. I mean, this guy's. Are you okay with this guy, Michigan guy?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I think we have to have some serious conversations, country, about what's happening. We need to find a way back to the middle. That's what I think.

[Mark Haines]

All right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Meantime, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that leverage across financial markets remains elevated. In an interview with CNBC diamond, adding that investors should remember that hidden borrowing can amplify market disruptions.

[Guest/Panelist]

Margin debt is the highest ever been. There's a lot of margin debt you don't see because it's not called margin debt, it's called other things. So it's that kind of leverage, some hidden, some public. We, we see a of it and it's high. You know, it's not, I'm not going to say it's systemic high, it's going to cause a disaster, but it's high.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And diamond pointed to borrowing through prime brokerages, hedge funds, ETFs and Treasury arbitrage strategies, said that heavy leverage increases that risk, that a single investor could trigger broader volatility. JP Morgan has been one of the prime brokers for AI focused hedge fund situational awareness, which of course suffered heavy losses in recent days. And when we had conversations both with Brian Moynihan yesterday at bank of America and also with John Waldron from Goldman Sachs, who also, by the way, situational awareness was a client of theirs, they both said that there was a pulling back, a little bit of tightening of conditions insofar as some lessons learned about, you know, how much leverage they're going to allow some of these funds to have.

[Mark Haines]

I got to tell you that watching in recent sessions, I've started to think about what Tom Lee said because I don't know how this continues to go at this point with so many people suddenly sort of thinking this is normal, these types of gains and being comfortable with it. You're sort of, I mean, there's a certain complacency that's like, well, maybe we deserve this. Tom Lee's thesis is we get, before we get to 8,000 at the end of the year, we take a trip down to the six. To the six handles. That would, that might be.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You could take a trip, but it's not clear you have to end the year at 8,000 either.

[Mark Haines]

No, it's not, but that's his thesis. And I'm, I mean, I'm bullish, but I just think right now it just can't go up like this every day. And we're going to be at 9,000 on the S and P. Oh, yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, at this rate.

[Mark Haines]

At this rate. So how do you shake out the complacency right now? You do something scary, I think. And this is. These things are. A lot of these things are so, you know, asymptotic. Asymptotic the way scary.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What does that mean?

[Mark Haines]

I don't know. A quick break, a quick break of, of 10 12%. Something like.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But what's going to cause that?

[Mark Haines]

Nothing ever does. You know, there's an excuse for what causes it. What causes it is technically is that there's too much bullishness and too much acceptance of the route.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

For example, if there's a, if there's

[Mark Haines]

a. Oh, it could be any.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

If there's a rate hike or if this situation in Iran doesn't really get

[Mark Haines]

solved, did we know that it was going to be situational awareness? Speaking of situ this situational awareness Jumping back into investing just days after being forced to unload many of its AI related bets, Bloomberg says Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund has put $400 million into an unnamed private company following a $100 million investment in the same firm last month. Ashenbrenner's fund has lost tens of billions of dollars in recent weeks due to falling prices for its investments in public technology stocks. The fund loaded many of those shares to ken Griffiths, Ken Griffin's Citadel.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And speaking of SpaceX, which was also our topic just moments ago, we're also watching those shares very closely because the first share lockup is expiring. That means that insiders who acquired stock before the company had gone public will have a chance to sell and realize potential big gains. Shares well off the post IPO highs. They were priced at $135 originally. They ended the first trading day back on June 12th. That was $161, then hit a high of $225 shortly thereafter. And then they began a decline. They're now down close to about 20% since the IPO. SpaceX also falling close to 14% yesterday following its first quarterly report selling expected today as more than 900 million shares are unlocked. The question is whether some of this might already be marginally priced in meaning we've all known this date. You know, if you were a SpaceX shareholder, this has been on your calendar for quite some time. And so the question is, does this from a price discovery perspective somehow change the game? And we will see at $109.78, SoftBank

[Mark Haines]

reporting better than expected first quarter profit fiscal first quarter obviously driven by a large gain in its stake in intel. The Japanese conglomerate saying net profits for its June quarter totaled about $2.2 billion. That beat estimates, but it was a nearly 20% decline year over year. SoftBank saw a roughly $8 billion gain on shares that it owns in intel following a $2 billion investment last year. Intel shares have surged almost 400%, but not to worry over the past 12 months, with most of that coming after the Trump administration announced an investment in the US chipmaker in its Vision Fund. SoftBank said it saw no gain or loss from its investment in Open air. This went from, you know, a Pat Gelsinger sort of not being up to the task of being a foundry in this country. It went from that to, to up 400%. Is it so compared to where it was, compared to what now is now, is it that different than what it was?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, I would suggest that there's one piece of this and this gets to the government story. No, no, hold on.

[Mark Haines]

If you go, suddenly the fortunes of the company are much better not just because of the government. Supposedly now they're competent at building chips.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So here's the question. Are they all of a sudden competent building chips or because of the relationship with the government, are other companies doing business with intel today because there has been pressure that has been put to bear on them. Suggestions? You should be doing some business with intel in a way that did not exist before. And I would suggest to you that that's got to be one part of

[Mark Haines]

the puzzle, maybe one part of the piece. You know, they already had a loan from, from the chips act, right? That was, you know, have you.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But you didn't have, you know, where

[Mark Haines]

Amtrak is profitable one place, the Eastern Quarter. How long has the government been, been involved with that? Just, I just think, I don't know, how about, how about things like Solyndra, how that work out?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But I, I don't believe that. Back then we had a president who was calling up like, like, like doing sales calls on behalf of the company and suggesting you really, you really should be doing some business with Intel.

[Mark Haines]

I think it's, I think it's great that now you think this is really good what Trump is doing.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'm, I'm suggesting to you that that is part of the puzzle. It's one piece.

[Mark Haines]

Awesome. Because we're all richer for it because we're all owners coming up, right? We all got some Intel. How much? If you figure I think I've got like a one zillionth of a share.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I haven't done the math.

[Mark Haines]

What's a zillion? I don't know. You know what's after a trillion quadrillion, you got to, I think. And then, well, we better look it up before. See, scientific notation is a better way to do it.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

President Trump trying to tamp down some of the fear of U.S. weapons shortages. In an overnight social media post, the president saying, quote, the U.S. has massive amounts of munitions, especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as needed. Now that follows a Washington Post report from last night that said the president confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Camp David just last week over shortages of missiles and air defense interceptors, telling Hegseth he thought the issue, in his words was quote, hadn't fixed. Now, White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt telling the Post the story was 100% fake news. In his truth social Post last night the president said the leakers of these treasonous statements are being hunted down. Long term jail sentences will be sought. But nonetheless, I think all of the reporting that I've seen, not just this Washington Post piece, but you talk, you talk to folks in the defense industry and ecosphere and they say we don't have enough munitions and the, the, the,

[Mark Haines]

the most high end missiles. But there is a, you could go to bombers that we have a lot of munitions there, but it's more high risk and you're risking, we just don't

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

have, we don't have the stuff that we need.

[Mark Haines]

Some of it we do. Some of it we might be short of. And you've seen people say if we were to destroy more of the offensive capabilities of Iran, you wouldn't need as much of the patriots in the defensive ordinance at that point.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Look, we're going to spend a lot

[Mark Haines]

of the criticism though coming from places that if you try to increase the defense budget, they start whining and crying about that. So you just can't win. You know what I mean? You're going to get criticism.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, look, the defense budget is practically doubling.

[Mark Haines]

Yeah, it's like, you know, dragon, no pulling hair out.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, look, for a very, very long time, I believe President Trump before his president often talked about could we lower these budgets. Others have talked about lowering these budgets,

[Mark Haines]

but he ramped it up in his

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

term and was uniquely, you know, so many of the tech, the sort of new weapons tech companies and this is Palantir, Andrew. No, no, they used to talk about their whole selling point in the past was we're going to lower the cost of defense for America. And because we're going to use new technologies, we're going to create new munitions, we're going to be going to drone war for all this stuff. And instead though, that the whole conversation about lowering the total defense budget through all this sort of new technology has gone out the window. That has been removed from the conversation. You do not hear the defense tech companies saying we should have a lower. We're going to be able to lower the budget over time. In fact, it's the opposite.

[Mark Haines]

But you do hear that we need to transition away from $100 million weapon that can be taken down with $100,000 drone. So the math just doesn't work. So we're going to shift towards that. That stuff, I'm sure. But that's going to be expensive too, obviously.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

All I'm suggesting is that no one's saying it's a one for one or coming down.

[Mark Haines]

I'm writing it down right now. You are a big defense budget increase person.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This is the opposite day.

[Mark Haines]

You're not going to do, you're not going to let me write that down. You want, okay, so you're not a big defense budget person.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I would like to find a way to maintain the budget and over time through technology, through frankly, lower it. To lower it.

[Roger Ferguson]

Okay.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I mean, I look at what and

[Mark Haines]

we're on the right side.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I look at what's going on, I'm ready to double it. I look at what's happening in Ukraine, for example, and they're doing an astonishing job and a very good job for a marginal amount of money relative to what we need.

[Mark Haines]

A lot more money. More, more, more.

[LifeLock Announcer]

Cheese will be next.

[Joe Kernan]

Coming up on Squawkpot, a new report that the president likes to call the Fed chair Kevin Warsh to catch up, maybe ask for advice, is ruffling some feathers in Wal Washington, former Fed Vice chair Roger Ferguson on the central bank in Trump's America.

[Roger Ferguson]

We know this president has been very clearly dismissive in some sense, certainly critical of Fed policy.

[Joe Kernan]

And the task for the new chairman

[Roger Ferguson]

Kevin Warsh needs to show as he has a strong degree of independence.

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[Joe Kernan]

You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC Today with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

[Mark Haines]

President Trump making a habit of reaching out to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh this is a Wall Street Journal report said the president has spoken repeatedly with the chair since he took over as Fed chairman, initiating a series of calls before sometimes not calling for a while. The president has reportedly asked wars for his opinion on how the Iran war, how the rise of AI all affecting the American economy. One source, the president said has not brought up the topic of interest rates. But this is all hearsay and we weighed in on this kind of already and I don't know if I can still talk to warship really. It's hard right with his position now. But I would ask him, I'd ask him about, you know, golf, ask him about anything. And he's a smart guy, right?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

He's a very smart guy. He's very smart and it's going to be interesting to see how he positions look, part of what he needs to do in all of this is position himself with the President too. It's not just the president needing to influence him at some level. He's going to probably have to make some hard choices about raising interest rates and how he manages that is very important. He is very good people.

[Mark Haines]

I know but how long is his term?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

He has a, he has a four year term as well. That's how it works. Well that be but it stands out.

[Mark Haines]

President's already gone so he's right. He will.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And then you'll see who's outlast. You'll see who's in office then.

[Mark Haines]

Right. And you'll see we have a pretty good idea.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You know who's going to be in office in 28.

[Mark Haines]

Idea. Either AOC or Kamala. If you get your way.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

If I get my way.

[Ashton Lawrence]

Go ahead.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

My goodness gracious. You saw the Tucker is apparently going to be running. Did you see that? Speculation. That'll work.

[Mark Haines]

You know what? That had set up a battle royale between Tucker Carlson and Don Lemon.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Okay, let's see who.

[Mark Haines]

Apparently all of his friends are saying, don, you got to run because there's a groundswell. It's just a ground swell.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I had not heard that.

[Mark Haines]

Yeah, ground swell. Meantime, dwelling ground.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, let's, let's, let's see where things are in 28. Google shuffling its AI divisions. This is big news, folks. The company saying that its chief scientist, Jeff Dean leaving the company after 27 years. And Demis Sabis will become chairman of Google DeepMind. He has led that unit as the CEO, spearheaded nearly all of Alphabet's foundational AI work demos, will become also the chief scientist at the parent company Alphabet. He really is the OG of the AI movement really more than anything else. And so many of the people who went on to OpenAI and Tanthropic, including Dario Amadei, started or at least worked for some period of their time at DeepMind. This is really where it all began. Alphabet shares falling about 4% yesterday following this news. The idea that Demis is stepping down slash up into this sort of chairman role, so he's not going be operating. And Jeff Dean, who is really also One of the OGs, also not in position. This is, this is going to raise all sorts of questions about just where Google is going with AI in this moment as it's trying to compete against open air, of course, and anthropic.

[Mark Haines]

You know, I defer to you on this and I ask this may be really stupid question. Go for it. What's the difference between Google I when I just hit use the AI mode versus going right directly to Gemini?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So what's happening when you use classic Google search?

[Mark Haines]

It's providing right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And it's very good at the top

[Mark Haines]

effect when I hit it.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I've had great providing. It's providing an AI overview of its answer and then it's also providing search results. Right. If you're on Gemini, sort of classic Gemini, it's much more of a chat experience, much more similar to what you're doing with a chatgpt or with a Claude.

[Mark Haines]

I think it's really good.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You know what, all three of them are really good, but they're all good at doing slightly different things.

[Mark Haines]

All right, well, you know, my first order of business is grilling.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Grilling. I thought grilling guests grilling.

[Mark Haines]

Guests grilling. Nope, no, no. Although I can do that on my own, I think. No, this is a reverse sear filet mignon on a two zone grill, you know.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And so you've been asking a question

[Mark Haines]

how to do it. Yeah. Dry brine in the refrigerator or a wet brine do you use to tenderize the chickens?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'm gonna get you the cooking app. That's what I'm gonna get you, the New York Times.

[Mark Haines]

You've got some stupid hibachi out on your deck. You don't have any drilling. That is an electric. What do you got? You got anything for.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We've got, we've got a lot going on in the Sorkin family. Go, go, take it away.

[Guest/Panelist]

Here, you got the.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

George, you got an Alphabet board member here. You can ask him about all this. You may not want to answer it.

[Mark Haines]

Next.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yes, you can grill him.

[Mark Haines]

I'm going to, I'm going to. I'm not going to grill him. You're going to grow. Our next guest is an Alphabet board member and we're going to get him to weigh in on what we were just talking about. Not the girl stuff, the stuff before that. And some new data out from the conference board in collaboration with the Business Council. Their latest measure of CEO confidence survey shows an uptick of optimism in the C suite. Joining us now, former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson, Vice chair of the Business Council. So much in addition to all that to talk to you about, Roger, Bank America thinks three rate hikes. I don't think it's going to. I think they're wrong. I think they're going to have to say, oops. Do you think we get three rate hikes?

[Roger Ferguson]

I don't think we get three, but I attempt to learn a possibility of two this time or this year or early next year because I think the inflation pressures are not going to subside quickly enough. And I think the committee, particularly the chair, want to hold on to their credibility.

[Mark Haines]

You think that, that, that is consensus, right? I still don't. I think most people are thinking no change still. Do you think that that has shifted in recent weeks and it shouldn't have because the inflation numbers have been, have been more friendly. But the war obviously has ramped up and now oil's back to 75. So I don't know what you're assuming to get to. You must be making some assumptions about Iran.

[Roger Ferguson]

I'm making some assumptions, yeah. I'm assuming that that oil does not come back down very quickly. And even if it does, there's inflation in the pipeline. You know, I think there have been other disruptions as well. And then finally, you know, while we had one good reading, let's see how the others work out. Now, everybody's predictions are data dependent because I think the Fed is very data dependent and the market last time around saw a pretty good read and, you know, expected maybe a 30, 35% chance of a move. But I think it's not over yet and it's just too early to say for sure that this inflation genie's back in the bottle. And finally you've got the fact that, you know, the chair has been very clear that five years of missing the target is really unacceptable. And I think the market is expecting to hear from him, something clear about his framework, how he thinks about all of this and how he, now it's, his watch, is going to respond to it.

[Mark Haines]

How about people that come in and argue that some of the, some of the problem areas of the inflation have started to, to look better, like shelter or services or even, I don't know, even, even wage pressure. Have you seen positive signs in some of that data?

[Roger Ferguson]

Absolutely, there were positive signs to some of it. And as you point out, you know, the last reading was a relatively positive surprise. But be careful because, you know, coming in at slightly below 3 is not coming in at 2. And so these concepts of, you know, positive surprise, etcetera, against the backdrop of inflation that is certainly running hot, even if it's less hot than have been before, doesn't mean that it's definitively on its way to 2% over the next three or four or five quarters. And I think that's the Fed's dilemma right now. We like you're improving, but from a very bad base.

[Mark Haines]

Yeah, we all like to live in interesting times. And the war Fed is grist for a lot of really interesting conversations that we've had and arguments, family fights which the Chairman apparently likes. So I could ask, yeah, I could ask you about whether you like the whole idea of less transparency and you're on your own. And then yesterday it was fascinating to see the interplay between treasury and the Fed and a financial reporter.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Did you see the whole Nick Timorous thing?

[Mark Haines]

You probably didn't like that.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I Didn't love it.

[Mark Haines]

I know that as a reporter, me that's not a journalist, sort of was tickled by the whole thing. Did you hear what I said? Me is not a. Yeah, I clocked the whole thing. But that's not a surprise to you. That's not a surprise surprise you. What do you make of all that, Roger?

[Roger Ferguson]

Look, I think two or three things clear the Fed needs to clear and fluid communication. Certainly, you know, some of the things they've done that portend the future are sort of confusing. So consider the.box, etc. On the other hand, you know, the market does want some degree of transparency. It's called, you know, the reaction function. How is the Fed likely to act? And I think Chair Rorsch is going to eventually be forced to say a little more about the future than perhaps he wants to. On the back treasury, you know, the standard has been very, very clear which is the Fed is responsible for monetary policy. Treasury tends to definitely takes the lead on fiscal policy. The Fed is not to comment and generally treasury is not commented at least in the last three or four administrations on monetary policy. On dollar policy which comes into play, frankly, the treasury takes the lead, the Fed helps to implement. So I think the rules of the road are clear. But obviously reporters like to report, you know, tit for tat and, and what's exciting is, is disagreement, not agreement. So I think we've got to the Fed has really got to focus on its mandate. It's got to be clearer transparency because the markets I think deserve and expect a certain degree of transparency knowing there's not going to be, you know, forward commitments because the Fed and markets are all very.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Roger, there was another story in the Wall Street Journal just this morning about Kevin Warsh and these conversations he's been having or the President of the United States has been having with him apparently routinely. Curious where you stand on that. I mean it sounds like there have been periods of time where there have been conversations between a President and a Fed chair. It's sounds like more recently that has not been the case. But from your perspective how the market

[Mark Haines]

read that, you should with the COVID you should point out that the the article says we have no idea whether they talked about Fed policy. They talked about the Iran war, they talked about the economy, they talked about all wide. And I thought about that immediately and I know Kevin, we've known Kevin. I would use him as a resource for and if the President's doing that, I'm like fantastic.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, by the way, the reason I was Asking him to contextualize it was because during the Clinton era, for example, there was close. There was lots of back and forth between Alan Greenspan and him.

[Mark Haines]

But we don't know if this was. What are you doing with rates?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We don't know what was going on. It's also hard to imagine that there's never a conversation that even touches on how they think. I mean, all these conversations relate to each other.

[Mark Haines]

But.

[Ashton Lawrence]

Yeah.

[Roger Ferguson]

So look, let me. To answer your question, trying to contextualize it. These conversations go on quite frequently. The rules of the road are let's talk about the economy. The President should be taking advice from someone as smart and insightful as the chair of the Fed, including obviously, Kevin Wash. So one shouldn't be surprised. One should recognize that historically there has been a degree of pressure applied. You know, there are famous incidents when, you know, the President has called in the chair to suggest a sort of move to monetary policy that is clearly off limits. I think here it's a little riskier insofar as we know this President has been very clearly dismissive in some sense, certainly critical of Fed policy. And so, you know, Kevin Wash needs to show as he has a strong degree of independence. So I think these conversations will go on. I think they are newsworthy in this context because of the history of this president really bashing the Fed, if I

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

can use that word, talking about newsworthy. Talking about newsworthy. Roger, before you go, I do want to get your, your sense of this big move inside of Google Alphabet. I know you're on the board. I don't know how much you can say about it, but as we mentioned, Demis, who I've known for many years, he really is the OG of all this. And Jeff, also one of the great OGs. I know you got a bench there, but how are you thinking about it?

[Roger Ferguson]

Well, what you said earlier is true, which is, you know, I would actually not to comment on it. I know that seems very sort of disappointing. As a, as a board member, I am calm and comfortable with the leadership team that we have there. And these moves are part of sort of a natural progression as they were talking about in the press release. So I'll just leave it at that. The first release speak for itself. The good news is obviously, you know, there's a deep bench and I expect to do quite well in this space as it has for a long time.

[Mark Haines]

In your survey, Roger, measure of CEO confidence. I mean, if you combine what's been going on in the stock market and the type of, you know, Earnings we've seen in the last couple of quarters. There's a, it says an uptick. Is it just a little uptick or is it a surge in confidence that you see?

[Roger Ferguson]

No, it's a little uptick. You know, it's, it's, I think the word that we've used in that press release was cautious and I would stick with that. It's a slight uptick is not a big surge. And what's interesting is, you know, the capital expenditure change hasn't changed very much. Low, higher, low. Fire still seems to come through in the, in the index as well. So overall, I wouldn't look at this as, you know, a major change or major surge. It's just moved slightly into positive territory by some measures after being slightly into negative territory.

[Mark Haines]

Yeah, they get paid to worry, obviously, and, but I don't see tariff worry this time. And it's where I see, I worry or I don't see geopolitical concerns necessarily necessarily as the top risk. So it's, it's cyber security is the top risk.

[Roger Ferguson]

Cyber is the top risk. I has now edged out geopolitics as the second highest risk. What's interesting about AI, it's, it's really a double edged sword. Right. There's a lot of potential there and also if you're CEO, a lot of uncertainty as to how it might impact your industry and how you should respond to that. And all that's coming through very clearly and in the, in the survey.

[Mark Haines]

Okay, great. All right, thanks, Roger.

[Roger Ferguson]

Thank you.

[Joe Kernan]

Still to come on, squawk pod people are inheriting not just money from their families, but also houses. What to know about taking ownership of what can often be a family's largest asset. CNBC's Sharon Epperson will be here when we come back.

[Sharon Epperson]

Some kids are like, don't ever leave the house. Mom and dad. Well, do you want to pay for the property taxes? Do you want to continue to come come back or you just want to have a place to come back to visit, or are you going to come back to live?

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[Mark Haines]

Oh, no.

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[Keith Lansford]

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[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This is Squawk Pod standby Joe in 3, 2, 1.

[Mark Haines]

His mic Q more than $120 trillion. What? But the T is expected to change hands over the next 20 years. The historic financial shift has been called the great wealth transfer from us poor boomers rising US Home values. We can't live forever. I can't. Jim, not talking about you have made the family house an increasingly important part of that transition. As I said, it sounded like a Sharon story, and she joins us now. Sharon Epperson with what families need to know. 120 trillion.

[Sharon Epperson]

120 trillion. You know? According to the real estate data firm Totality, inherited Property accounted for nearly 9% of property transfers in 2025, a record high. Without careful planning, though, heirs may inherit difficult decisions and unexpected bills along with the memories.

[Narrator]

When financial adviser Lizetta Rainey Braxton's grandparents died, her father and his three siblings weren't sure what to do with the family home.

[Addison Lawrence]

My dad had always expressed that he wanted, you know, to buy out the siblings because they weren't interested. They lived in different places and that conversation took some time. And the time that it took, we actually had to have the home demolished.

[Narrator]

Family homes come with more than memories. They also come with property taxes, repairs and maintenance.

[Addison Lawrence]

The home is an asset, and a lot of people want to put emotional ties to it. It's a large asset that needs a conversation around it.

[Narrator]

For many families, the biggest challenge isn't inheriting the home, it's deciding what to do with it. Ashton and Addison Lawrence recently inherited their grandmother's home.

[Roger Ferguson]

You're dealing with both the grief, but also the management and some decision making on what you'd like to do with the property.

[Ashton Lawrence]

We actually haven't had a final decision on what we want to do with it, whether it's selling it, whether it's trying to use as a rental property, but keeping that communication open for how we want to proceed.

[Narrator]

Ashton is a certified financial planner. Even with his professional expertise and after years of conversations with their grandmother, he and his brother still haven't decided what to do with the house.

[Ashton Lawrence]

Regardless of whatever the house might yield to us personally, there's an emotional attachment to the sexual property, and so that'll be something that we end up weighing along with the financial pieces.

[Narrator]

Braxton says the value of a family home is only part of the inheritance. The other part is the responsibility and making sure family members are prepared to handle it.

[Sharon Epperson]

For more estate planning strategies, subscribe to my Money101 newsletter or go to cnbc.com

[Mark Haines]

money101joe okay, so what are some of the common issues that arise when someone inherits family home? Might be too late for me, but

[Sharon Epperson]

I mean, sometimes it's just understanding that what is still owed on the house, if there's still a mortgage, knowing what the property taxes are going to be and what the repairs and the upkeep is going to be. But also people need to know the issues of if a sibling decides to stay there or they're not sure if they're going to rent it, who's going to manage the house while you still own it, and then once if you do decide to sell it, how is that going to be distributed?

[Mark Haines]

Yeah, I should be asking about bequeather questions, not bequeathee questions. Right.

[Sharon Epperson]

But, but it's important to have that conversation even now with children your 20s and, you know, just to have an idea of what would happen. You know, would you, would you want to come back to where you grew up or not so that you have an idea of whether or not you can leave. You know, some kids are like, don't ever leave the house. Mom and dad, well, do you want to pay for the property taxes? Do you want to continue to come back or you just want to have a place to come back to visit, or are you going to come back to live ongoing conversations? It's not one conversation. It's ongoing conversations that need to be.

[Mark Haines]

Andrew's not even paying attention. It's so far off for you, even the thought of what to do with all your houses eventually. Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I mean, I got to think about all of this stuff. We've had loss in our family.

[Mark Haines]

That's right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Learned all sorts of things about, about

[Sharon Epperson]

these brands you don't want to have learned about it our way. And my condolences.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, no, thank you. But you have to get ahead of these things. And that's, I think, the biggest, biggest part of the story.

[Sharon Epperson]

Exactly.

[Addison Lawrence]

Exactly.

[Sharon Epperson]

You want to get ahead of it. You want to have the conversation. You want the person who is the property owner to feel like they have agency in it, but you want to make sure that your heirs have say as well. And having that conversation, it's not just about talking about the memories, but that's the good part that comes with.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

When do you think is the right time, though? What is there an age you think all of this has to happen at?

[Sharon Epperson]

I mean, I think it's an ongoing conversation. I think, you know, my kids are in their 20s. We talk about it. They're. Mom, don't ever, don't ever sell this house. Well, will you come back to live here? You just want to come for Christmas? You know, there's a cost involved and you need to have that conversation. My sister and I having that conversation with my mom, who's almost 90. Do you want to stay in this house that we grew up in? Do we want to keep that in the family? So we just continue to talk about it, setting it, setting up the timeline, though, so you're not talking about it for years and years and property value and the disrepair or whatever can happen. That's what you want to ward against. So having some type of timeline in six months, in a year, we're going to have made a decision one way or the other. I think that's important.

[Mark Haines]

And everything's worth. Suddenly these things are all worth much

[Sharon Epperson]

more than much more much.

[Mark Haines]

I saw it yesterday. David, little thing about where Al Bundy lived, the married with children. He was supposedly very. He was a shoe salesman. Very average. And his house was worth like a million dollars now that they.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah.

[Mark Haines]

That they lived in.

[Sharon Epperson]

Yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

The new new, new millions is billions and billions are now trillions.

[Mark Haines]

So I'm gonna sit here like, sit here like this.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This is how Alex, like Al Bundy. Yeah. You kind of remind me of.

[Joe Kernan]

And that is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for listening. Squawkbox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Follow Squawk Pod wherever you get your podcasts. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We are clear. Thanks, guys.

[Mark Haines]

Foreign.

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