Podcast Summary: Squawk Pod – "Inflation, Fed Independence, & Iran"

Date: January 15, 2026
Hosts: Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Key Guests:

• Steve Liesman (CNBC Senior Economics Reporter)
• Dan Senor (Host, "Call Me Back" Podcast; former White House advisor)
• Austan Goolsbee (President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod tackles three major themes: the ongoing protests and regime instability in Iran, high-stakes debates over Federal Reserve independence amid political pressure and investigations, and the U.S. economy's battle with inflation and interest rates. The hosts, joined by key policy insiders, provide real-time analysis, data, and explicit context around the risks and decision points facing America and its institutions.

1. Tensions and Protests in Iran

Segment: [01:03]–[02:10], [18:28]–[28:04]

Key Points

• Escalating unrest: Violent protests have erupted in Iran, and the U.S. is openly weighing military options amidst these crackdowns.
• Potential for regime change: Dan Senor suggests the Iranian regime is at its weakest point in decades, with "levels of protests against the government like we have now" being unprecedented ([20:29]).
• U.S. response: There is debate about the right strategy—ranging from support for protestors to the possibility of U.S. military involvement.
• Historical echoes: The conversation draws comparisons to other regime changes (Soviet Union, Iraq), and explores what might realistically trigger a collapse in Tehran.

Notable Quotes

• Joe Kernan: "The lives that will be changed if the regime falls in Iran is extraordinary. You're talking about tens of millions of people's lives that we not only think they want to change, they're on the streets and they are risking their lives every day for that change." ([27:12])
• Dan Senor: “The regime does have these security forces that they've been investing in and those have staying power, which means you've got to hit the security forces. Security forces will… this is not the Soviet Union in 1989 or 1990 or 1980, 1991.” ([22:11])
• On U.S. Policy: "Trump has never been an isolationist. He has never saw a paradox between American power and America First. That you can use American power abroad. And that is actually an America First interest." – Dan Senor ([23:32])

Timestamps

• [18:28] Interview with Dan Senor on Iran’s protests and possible U.S. action.
• [20:29] Discussion of regime vulnerability and history of Iran's protests.
• [22:11] Debate on security forces and parallels to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• [23:32] Differences in Trump’s foreign policy doctrine.

2. Federal Reserve Independence & Political Pressure

Segment: [01:27]–[17:11], [28:30]–[45:41]

Key Points

• Political meddling: President Trump is publicly mulling the replacement of Fed Chair Jay Powell amid a criminal probe—a move raising alarms about central bank independence.
• Market and policy impact: Markets have adjusted, largely removing the possibility of a final Powell rate cut, and handicapping the odds of potential successors (Kevin Hassett vs. Kevin Warsh), with Warsh perceived as more hawkish.
• Public understanding: The hosts note that issues of Fed independence, once esoteric, are now mainstream concerns: "A couple of years ago... you said you think the Fed should stay independent, they’d say, what? Feds? Now, I'm sure people have an opinion." – Becky Quick ([01:41], [05:36])
• Broad pushback: Current and former central bankers, as well as business icons like Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, express support for keeping the Fed free from direct political influence.

Notable Quotes

• Steve Liesman: "This is reinforcing central bank independence...you now have central banks around the world writing letters. You now have former treasury secretaries signing letters." ([04:39])
• Austan Goolsbee: "There have been countries that had criminal investigations of their central banks, but those countries are Zimbabwe and Russia and Turkey and a bunch of places that you would not characterize as advanced economies." ([28:50], [40:50])
• Austan Goolsbee: "You're going to get inflation come roaring back if you try to take away the independence of the central bank." ([02:27], [40:50])
• Andrew Ross Sorkin: "[If] you believe that agencies should be held accountable, the question is how you go about it... hearings, audits, or a criminal investigation, which has all sorts of other implications." ([07:19], [43:21])

Timestamps

• [04:39] Fed independence debate and its global reverberations.
• [05:36], [11:11], [13:41] Public resistance to undermining the Fed, analysis of potential new chairs.
• [28:30], [40:50] Goolsbee discusses the risks to U.S. credibility and inflation if Fed independence is lost.
• [43:21] Accountability vs. interference: balancing oversight and autonomy.

3. The Inflation Battle: What’s Next for Rates?

Segment: [02:10], [11:32]–[18:25], [30:40]–[45:41]

Key Points

• Progress and caution: Inflation is slowly coming back towards the Fed's 2% target, but Goolsbee stresses that not all danger is past—particularly in 'non-housing services' inflation ([35:20]).
• Labour market resilience: Unemployment claims are at historic lows, with the job market described as "cooling at a slow rate" rather than collapsing ([32:38]).
• Path for rate cuts: Fed officials, including Goolsbee, expect rates to decline later in the year, conditional on more convincing evidence that inflation is tamed.
• Criticisms and defense: The Powell Fed is simultaneously blamed for moving too slow to tamp inflation and praised for avoiding a financial crisis in the pandemic’s wake.
• Credit market debate: Moynihan (BofA) warns that a hard cap on credit card rates, as proposed by President Trump, would dramatically limit credit access.

Notable Quotes

• Austan Goolsbee: "We've been five years fighting to get inflation on a path back to 2% and we've made some progress, but we, we need that. And if we get that, I think rates can come down." ([02:10], [36:48])
• Steve Liesman: "Policy in context. When did you want the Fed to reverse course? In the middle of the pandemic...? Everybody is brilliant looking back." ([14:49])
• Austan Goolsbee (on Powell): "We had an epic crisis...there was no financial crisis. We had the Silicon Valley Bank collapse—it did not turn into a financial crisis. Inflation fell the most...it has ever fallen in a single year...and there was no recession. That's never happened before." ([38:02])
• Becky Quick (on credit caps): "A cap on rates would lead to a dramatic pullback in credit availability—probably not a great thing anyway." ([11:05])

Timestamps

• [30:40]–[32:38] Jobless claims and real-time labor data: sub-200,000 claims referenced as “Beatles era” lows.
• [32:38]–[35:20] Goolsbee’s analysis of continued labor strength and his expectations of future rate cuts.
• [35:20]–[36:48] What’s left to fix in inflation—services, health care, other sticky categories.
• [38:02]–[40:10] The Powell debate—first-ballot “hall of famer” or source of mistakes?

Additional Memorable Moments

• Public engagement with Fed issues: “A couple of years ago…if you were riding in an Uber…you said you think the Fed should stay independent, they’d say, what? Feds? Now, I’m sure people have an opinion.” – Becky Quick ([05:36])
• The role of “the adult in the room”: Discussion around Scott Bessen’s influence in the Trump White House ([08:18]).
• Media humor: Light jabs at “Baghdad Bob” when discussing Iranian government messaging ([03:12]).

Key Takeaways

• Iran’s unrest could reshape the region, but U.S. intervention remains a high-stakes and divisive question.
• The independence of the Federal Reserve is being tested as never before; loss of this independence could threaten both U.S. financial credibility and price stability.
• Despite past mistakes around inflation and monetary stimulus, current Fed officials defend the institution’s performance and urge patience as the economy normalizes.
• Labor market data remains historically strong, supporting optimism for a possible “soft landing.”
• Economic literacy around central banking and interest rates is spreading beyond experts to the general public, making Fed policy a mainstream concern.

For listeners seeking clarity on current economic crosswinds—from Middle East risk to U.S. monetary sovereignty—this episode provides candid insight, expert perspective, and trenchant debate, all delivered in the signature Squawk Box style.