Squawk Pod: January’s Jobs Picture & AI Disruption

Episode Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: Kelly Evans, Brian Sullivan, Robert Frank
Guests: Steve Liesman, Rick Santelli, Kitty Richards (Groundwork Collaborative), Peter St. Onge (Heritage Foundation)

Episode Overview

This Squawk Pod episode digs into January’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report, including major downward revisions to last year’s employment data, and what it means for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut prospects. The crew also debates the disruption AI is bringing to the financial services sector, with new tools stirring up volatility and existential fears among wealth managers. Other stories include Ford’s big earnings miss and Ferrari’s EV reveal, but the episode is anchored by smart, sometimes spicy debate over the headline economic data.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. January Jobs Report: The Numbers and the Revisions

• Headline: The U.S. labor market added 130,000 jobs in January (15:02) — well above the consensus forecast (55,000) and a bump from December’s 48,000.
• Unemployment rate: Tick down to 4.3% (15:02).
• Major Revision: Annual jobs count for April 2024 to March 2025 revised DOWN by 898,000—nearly 900,000 fewer jobs than originally reported (15:42).

Steve Liesman: “Big downward adjustment. I haven’t done the calculation but… you would take all of that period of time and adjust downward the average month.” (16:26)
Robert Frank: “I think I hear something. Do you know what that is, Steve?... I think that’s the sound of rate cut expectations dying.” (15:51)

• Sector highlights:
  • Manufacturing turned around with +5,000 jobs (16:10).
  • Construction saw a strong gain of +33,000 (16:26).

2. The Fed and Rate Cut Expectations

• The panel agrees this unexpectedly strong report—and especially the big data revision—complicates expectations for the Fed to begin cutting rates soon.

Steve Liesman: “The Fed has time. They're going to take the time to look at another employment report, look at the other data… For the moment I would suggest they would believe [130,000] is out of sample but they would get some confidence… It's not negative, it's not zero… 50k would be the hat I would wear for where [job growth] ought to be.” (23:42, 24:39)

• Rick Santelli, bullish as ever:

  "Nobody's going rain on my parade, these numbers are what they are... all these naysayers steeped in politics continue to be negative. That's okay because 50k says you've all been wrong." (22:17)

3. Dueling Political Interpretations

• Peter St. Onge (Heritage Foundation):

  • Hails the report as “blockbuster,” noting stronger-than-expected present day labor market.
  • Attributes past softness to "deportations, federal layoffs, slower spending" and argues that incoming manufacturing investment will support jobs—but it takes years (17:51, 18:25).

  “We’ve already gotten the pain on jobs… [But] those take time… This was blockbuster.” (17:51–18:25)

  • Blames Biden’s policies for job losses, but says heavy investment is coming.

• Kitty Richards (Groundwork Collaborative):

  • Cautions against bullishness, emphasizing big downward revisions, anemic labor market, and weak wage growth.
  • Asserts that ongoing political fights (especially Republican-driven rollbacks) are hurting manufacturing jobs and family finances.

  “I think that this print still demonstrates continued weakness in the labor market… manufacturing employment is ticking up for the first time in nine months. It had been falling month after month after month... continued kind of anemic, low-hire job market that's holding back wage growth and making life less affordable for the American people.” (18:25)

• Steve Liesman: Takes the centrist, analytical line, emphasizing volatility and the need for more data before drawing firm conclusions.

4. AI Disruption in Financial Services

• The team covers how a new AI-powered tax tool (“Hazel” by Altruist) triggered steep selloffs in wealth management stocks (Raymond James, Charles Schwab, etc.) due to fears of AI-driven fee compression and job loss.

Brian Sullivan: “This is like the wildfire that sort of keeps spreading to different neighborhoods… There will be some firms that will be disintermediated by this… it’s going to accelerate consolidation, bring down fees. And the competitors that have the lowest fees, that are the highest adopters of AI, are going to win clients.” (04:50)

• Skepticism/Balance:
  Kelly Evans: Questions if AI can really replace human advisors, especially at higher wealth levels.

  “I find it hard to believe that… it didn’t make the industry go away… for something as important as taxes, it might be able to optimize the processes, but I don’t know if it’s going to be a game changer.” (06:34)
  Brian Sullivan: Agrees humans are most valued at the “high end.”
  "Where that personal human involvement and judgment is going to matter most is at those high net worth clients." (07:47)

• Historical perspective:
  Peter St. Onge: “Think about the Internet, remember when they said Excel was going to put all the bookkeepers out of work. It’s just like we should be thankful, this is going to create so many new jobs and opportunities." (08:41)

5. Other Notable Stories and Moments

Ford’s Big Miss, Ferrari’s EV Pivot (09:00–12:31)

• Ford: Biggest quarterly earnings miss in four years, partly due to higher costs and EV write-downs—but offering more optimistic forward guidance.
• Ferrari: Reveals its first EV, which will feature an artificial engine sound; all agree the brand’s exclusivity means it can pivot more successfully than mass makers.

Lighter Moments & Repartee

• The team jokes about studio temperatures (“It’s hot. That’s just because you’re here,” “Good weight loss technique: sweating.” 03:13, 03:19)
• The recurring “hat” motif – Rick Santelli puts on a hand-made 50K hat to troll the naysayers (22:17).
• Playful quips about “AI FOMO,” “Robo-advisor vibes,” and making taxes easier for everyone (06:37–08:26).
• Bilingual jokes with Ferrari’s EVs—“It’s called the Lucy… We’re multilingual here at Squawkbox!” (10:21)
• “Get her an eagle and put it on her shoulder right now.” (08:58)

Memorable Quotes with Timestamps

• Robert Frank:
  “I think I hear something. Do you know what that is, Steve?... I think that’s the sound of rate cut expectations dying.” (15:51)

• Brian Sullivan:
  “This is like the wildfire that sort of keeps spreading to different neighborhoods… There will be some firms that will be disintermediated by this.” (04:54)

• Kelly Evans:
  “I’m just not persuaded by this narrative… for something as important as taxes, it might be able to optimize the processes, but I don’t know if it’s going to be a game changer.” (06:34)

• Peter St. Onge:
  “In terms of looking at where the job market is right now, it’s far stronger than many of us suspected.” (01:30, repeated at 20:01)

• Kitty Richards:
  “I think that this print still demonstrates continued weakness in the labor market … continued kind of anemic, low-hire job market that's holding back wage growth and making life less affordable for the American people.” (18:25)

• Rick Santelli:
  “Nobody’s going to rain on my parade and these numbers are what they are… I say all the investment gurus out there jump in the markets in the U.S. because global GDP is going to take a big ramp up and the U.S. is leading the way.” (17:54, 22:17)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & Market Trends Commentary: 02:10–03:37
• AI Disruption in Financial Services: 03:49–08:41
• Ford/Ferrari Earnings/EV Segment: 08:58–12:31
• Jobs Report Headlines & Revision Analysis: 14:56–17:01
• Political Panel on Jobs Data: 17:27–22:14
• Rate Cuts, The Fed’s Mindset: 22:14–25:14

Conclusion

This episode offers a lively, comprehensive look at America’s evolving jobs picture and the acceleration of AI-driven change across financial services. Battle lines between optimists and skeptics, left and right, and humans vs. machines made for vibrant debate—wherever you stand, you’ll emerge better informed (and possibly craving a custom economic “hat”).