Kelly Evans (2:10)

Good morning and welcome to Squawkbox here on CNBC. We're live from the warm and toasty NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Kelly Evans along with Brian Sullivan and Robert Frank. We're in for Joe, Becky and Andrew this morning. Treasury yields, shall we? This has been the action lately. The 10 year yield which was just at 420 guys about 24 hours ago before we got the weak retail Sales report fell to 415 yesterday. And take a quick look on your screens this morning. 4.135%. So that's a pretty significant move, one that's kind of breaking us out of that range we've been stuck in for quite some time. And that's despite again Everything we talked about recently with Japanese bond yields and the rest of it.

Robert Frank (2:47)

Well, a tiny sliver news for potential homebuyers. I guess if mortgage rates are tied to that 10 year, maybe mortgage rates will come down just a little bit. Folks, I know it's not the big respite, respite, respite. Thank you. Respites, early respite that you wanted. You're not probably under sub 6%, but we're headed in the right direction. That housing market, spring selling season. Looking for a little relief, Robert? A little, a little relief.

Brian Sullivan (3:12)

It was a big move in.

Robert Frank (3:13)

Like we are from the 82 degree studio here.

Brian Sullivan (3:16)

It is not just warm, it is hot. It is hot.

Robert Frank (3:19)

That's just because you're here.

Kelly Evans (3:20)

Is that because it had been cold?

Robert Frank (3:22)

Is that I was here like last week again, a full new lineup and it was about 50 degrees in the studio. Now we've, you know, it's like the market, it just vacillates from one side.

Brian Sullivan (3:32)

To the other very.

Steve Liesman (3:33)

I like it.

Kitty Richards (3:34)

It's good analogy.

Robert Frank (3:35)

It's a good weight loss technique. Sweating.

Kelly Evans (3:37)

Did I tell you that? Bespoke stat. I think we talked about this, how we went from the most overbought market to the most oversold back to the most overbought for the first time in history. That was very, that was very apt.

Robert Frank (3:47)

I had no idea, but I'll take it.

Brian Sullivan (3:49)

Thank you. And speaking of cooling shares of financial services firms, the latest to get it on AI fears. This follows tech platform Altruist announcing an AI tax planning tool yesterday that it says can help investors streamline tax planning strategies. So you've got Raymond James lost close to 9%, Charles Schwab down 7%. LPL Financial was more than 8% lower. Wealth management is the latest industry to get hit over AI fears. Earlier this week it was the shares of insurance brokerages. Last week it was software stocks and private credit firms. This is like the fire, the wildfire that sort of keeps spreading to different neighborhoods. And there's that overreaction in the beginning probably. And then to step back where that industry sort of says, no, actually we're all AI firms or I will help. And then it will probably end up in the middle where there will be some firms that will be disintermediated by this because, you know, I've covered wealth management for a long time. There is so much of this high fee work that can be done by.

Robert Frank (4:54)

And so let me, let me, because I know, Kelly, you hit this on the exchange yesterday. We talked about it a Bit on Power Lunch. It has to do with a firm rolling out this AI. Tax planning.

Brian Sullivan (5:04)

Yeah.

Robert Frank (5:04)

Okay. It's the firm's called Altruist and this tax planners, they call it Hazel, let me ask you this, because you do Inside wealth, by the way, sign up today. It's fantastic. Thank you. You're welcome. How nice it is. Is anybody going to leave their wealth manager because another firm has an AI tax planner?

Brian Sullivan (5:24)

No, but they will if it's a lot cheaper and if that other tax planner has AI, which is doing things instead of a whole army of accountants who are very expensive, then yes, it's going to dramatically cut fees. And people who are invest, whether you're super rich or not, they're very fee sensitive when it comes to tax planning, when it comes to wealth management. And so it's the fee. And we've already seen a lot of fee compression in the wealth management space, which is why, you know, margins are down. You're seeing a lot of consolidation in that space with RIAs wrapping up other RIAs. And so this is going to accelerate that consolidation. It's going to bring down fees. And the competitors that have the lowest fees, that are the highest adopters of AI, are going to win clients. And that's the biggest fear. If you talk to anyone in wealth management, they're like, look, we're all going to be replaced by AI in three or five years anyway. I mean, they'll all openly say this. So I was interested in why this didn't happen earlier to some of these stocks. We're seeing it now. I do think it's an overreaction. 8, 9% down in one day is way too much. But, you know, and there will be some firms that really do well that integrate it, that are able to adapt to that new cost structure that. But there's a lot of fat in this industry.

Kelly Evans (6:34)

You remember Robo Advisors?

Brian Sullivan (6:36)

Yes, yes.

Kelly Evans (6:37)

Does this, do you not get a.

Brian Sullivan (6:38)

Little bit of Robo Advisor vibes and Robo fomo?

Kelly Evans (6:41)

Like, everything that you're saying is true, that it resulted in fee compression and consolidation and the rest of it, but it didn't make the industry go away. And I find it hard to believe that, especially for something as important as taxes, like, you might be able to ask it some questions, it might be able to, you know, optimize the processes, but I don't know if it's going to be no game changer.

Brian Sullivan (7:00)

It's, it's not a replacement, but it is a reduction. And so there's a lot of busy Work that, that comes in terms of filings and processing forms and putting those forms with other forms. And you say that brings the fees down.

Robert Frank (7:14)

So what is what these RIAs, registered investment advisors, what they can charge. Yeah, our viewers, our listeners. That's right. And many of these RIAs are watching right now. Those fees will come down. But what I would argue is that while the computer can do those things, you know better than anybody, Robert, that you don't replace the human because the human is still she or he is what brings in the client, brings in the money.

Brian Sullivan (7:40)

That's right.

Robert Frank (7:41)

Picks up the phone when the market's down 20% and says stay calm and carry on.

Brian Sullivan (7:47)

And where that becomes most valuable is at the high end. And that is why all these RIAs, and I know this because I talked to them all, are all trying to move up the wealth ladder. Because where that personal human involvement and judgment is going to matter most and be valued most is at those high net worth clients. You know, most everyday investors, retirees, a lot of that can be automated. But it's that high, touch high. And that's why all these areas and wealth management firms are targeting the high end.

Kelly Evans (8:15)

Just, could we just get someone to make it just easier to file taxes for everybody? I mean, I don't know. That's a whole separate thing.

Brian Sullivan (8:21)

That's the tax code, that's the tax.

Kelly Evans (8:23)

I'm just saying it's only gotten more complicated. Yes, you.

Brian Sullivan (8:26)

Absolutely.

Kelly Evans (8:27)

So I'm like, I'm just not persuaded by this narrative. But whatever.

Cameron Costa (8:30)

It's.

Kelly Evans (8:30)

I, no one. I love this technology. It's wonderful. It's wonderful. It is. It's making life so much better and easier.

Robert Frank (8:37)

There's a but there. What's the but? Kelly?

Kelly Evans (8:39)

I don't know if there is a.

Robert Frank (8:40)

But too nice but.

Peter St. Ange (8:41)

There's a but.

Kelly Evans (8:41)

I mean, because I just think back on for, you know, think about the Internet, right? Think about. Remember when they said Excel was going to put all the bookkeepers out of work. I mean it's just like we should be thankful this is going to create so many new jobs and opportunities. I just, I'm not, I don't know if I'm believe in the doomsday narratives. No, I'll change my money.

Robert Frank (8:58)

Get her an eagle and put it on her shoulder right now. Ford reporting its biggest quarterly earnings miss in four years. The good news though is that Ford is guiding to a rebound this year. Fourth quarter automotive revenue did beat expectations, but profit missed the company absorbing higher than expected costs from a fire at an Aluminum supplier that impacted the construction of of its very profitable and popular F150 pickup. They see about $900 million in extra tariff related costs as well. Ford's fourth quarter net loss about $11.1 billion. Because remember back in December the company announced it would take a nearly $20 billion charge from EV related write downs for the year. Ford expects to earn between 8 and $10 billion. The midpoint of that range above analysts estimates. Again, I've been talking about this for years. I've owned an ev. I've driven almost all of them. They're great for around town. If you live in northern Michigan in the UP if you live in rural Indiana where Elise is from, you're not. It's not good. And I think there was a wild miss on consumer demand.

Kelly Evans (10:07)

Well, absolutely. But it's also. Okay, so they're 45% kind of. Since that announcement. Question is now go back to race. Go back to Ferrari. Right. I mean incredible performer there. Even with some recent headwinds looking at an EV piece of the market that they can actually maybe do something with.

Brian Sullivan (10:21)

Unlike you know, talk about Ford versus Ferrari. This will be really interesting because Ferrari yesterday announced that the it showed the interior of the new EV that's going to launch in May which they changed the name. It's now going to be called the Lucy which is Italian.

Robert Frank (10:36)

Is that how you pronounce Lucy?

Brian Sullivan (10:37)

Yes, Italian Flight Italian. You're doing your Spanish. I'm doing my Italian this morning. We're multilingual here at Swap Box but it'll be interesting to me to see how many people want an electric Ferrari. This is a brand that's known for that emotional roaring engine. The good thing about Ferrari is they only make 13,000 cars a year. They have a new factory that's very flexible that can make EVs, it can make hybrids, it can make ICE engines. So I think they can quickly pivot. Unlike Ford which really had to scale EVs. And then descale.

Robert Frank (11:12)

Years ago I drove a car called the BMW i8. I did not own the car. I want to make that clear.

Brian Sullivan (11:17)

Ever.

Robert Frank (11:17)

It's not an attractive car.

Kelly Evans (11:19)

Was that the electric one or. That was the.

Robert Frank (11:20)

Yes. What they did and what I think Ferrari will do. Maybe you know this. I don't know. Yeah.

Brian Sullivan (11:26)

You put a little.

Robert Frank (11:27)

They had a little fake engine in there that made the sound of the engine.

Kelly Evans (11:31)

Oh funny.

Robert Frank (11:32)

So you wouldn't. Cuz if you drive an electric car. Yeah. As I have again own one.

Cameron Costa (11:36)

It's.

Robert Frank (11:36)

And also you hear the you hear the. Mostly what you hear is tire noise because tires tend to be heavy and a little denser. So you just hear a lot of tire noise inside. But people want that roar. They can make a digital engine sound to appease.

Brian Sullivan (11:49)

It's going to. The EV will have a sound. It's not going to be sort of totally created by speakers. It's going to be they, as they've told me, they've hinted that electric motors do make a sound. They do.

Robert Frank (12:02)

It's like.

Brian Sullivan (12:03)

Yeah. And you can actually, through engineering, amplify that sound. Not through speakers, but you can make that sound sound original and like an electric engine. So that's going to be the big question. But there will be a big sound for this electric Ferrari. We'll just have to see.

Robert Frank (12:18)

I think it's going to be. Listen, for those buyers, it's like their seventh car.

Brian Sullivan (12:22)

Yeah, exactly. And it's a collector's item and they'll keep in the garage and then 20 years, but you have to wait like.

Kelly Evans (12:27)

Years sometimes to get one.

Brian Sullivan (12:28)

Yes. Ferrari is sold out through the end of next year.

Kelly Evans (12:31)

Crazy. I know because I was trying.

Steve Liesman (12:32)

No, never mind.

Brian Sullivan (12:33)

Yeah.

Robert Frank (12:33)

Grazie Melee. Grazzi.

Brian Sullivan (12:37)

Cheese will be next.

Cameron Costa (12:39)

Coming up on Squawk Pod, unpacking the January jobs report and the revisions for last year with CNBC's Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli.

Rick Santelli (12:49)

I say all the investment gurus out there jump in the markets in the US because global GDP is going to take a big ramp up and the US Is leading the way.

Cameron Costa (13:01)

What the numbers mean for the Federal Reserve and how each side of the political aisle will interpret the report right after this. Thy ticket, lady Jennifer of Coolidge.

Brian Sullivan (13:14)

Well, many thanks, good sir.

Cameron Costa (13:16)

Here is my Discover card.

Kelly Evans (13:19)

They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs?

Brian Sullivan (13:22)

Yeah, they do here.

Kelly Evans (13:23)

Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getth with the Times.

Cameron Costa (13:28)

With the times.

Kelly Evans (13:30)

You're playing the loot.

Cameron Costa (13:32)

Yeah. And it sounds pretty good, right?

Rick Santelli (13:34)

Discover is accepted at 99% of places.

Brian Sullivan (13:37)

That take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

Rick Santelli (13:41)

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

Cameron Costa (14:10)

What do the steam engine, electricity and AI have in common? They don't just change how we work. They transform entire economies. Where the Internet Lives is an award winning podcast from Google about the unseen world of data centers. This season we're going inside the AI revolution. From farmers using AI to analyze soil data to researchers discovering new medicines, a new era of AI innovation is here. Listen to where the Internet lives wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Squawkpod. Due to the government's brief shutdown earlier this month, the Department of Labor Statistics delayed its monthly jobs data by five days, pushing jobs Friday to jobs Wednesday.

Rick Santelli (14:56)

It's Job Job Jobs Wednesday. Not necessarily a Friday, but every bit as important.

Cameron Costa (15:02)

CNBC's Rick Santelli delivered the numbers this morning and here's how they came in. Non farm payrolls increased by 130,000 for January above. The consensus estimate of 55,130k is also better than December which saw a gain of 48,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. In addition to the monthly numbers, the BLS also released revisions for April of 2024 to March of 2025. Turns out the initial jobs count for last year was Revised down by 898,000. That's almost 900,000 fewer jobs added in the year prior than originally reported. The expectation was that last year would be revised down by well over 900,000.

Robert Frank (15:51)

I think I hear something. Do you know what that is, Steve? You hear that? Steve Liesman? I think that's the sound of rate cut expectations dying.

Cameron Costa (15:58)

Brian Sullivan, Kelly Evans, Robert Frank, Rick Santelli, Steve Leesman and some other special guests broke down the report on Squawkbox this morning. Here's Steve Leisman.

Steve Liesman (16:10)

One good piece of news. You did have a turnaround in manufacturing that was up 5,000.

Kelly Evans (16:15)

It has been a that actually Steve, is important one. Since the tariffs last April, we've been.

Steve Liesman (16:22)

Shedding, shedding manufacturing jobs.

Kelly Evans (16:24)

This was the some hiring there.

Steve Liesman (16:26)

It's been up and down. It's not a big number. I was trying to think of construction I think was also higher as well. Where's that construction number? That's up 33,000. So that's a good number in that specialty trade contractors which could be government work. And I don't know if that also picks up the data center construction that's been out there. So again, just be clear, I would take this with a bit of a grain of salt. Rick is right. There was some Hope that this 911,000 estimate of big downward business was going to be more in the sevens. It ended up being in the mid eights. That's a big downward adjustment. I haven't done the calculation.

Kelly Evans (17:01)

He's shaking his head.

Steve Liesman (17:02)

But certainly what you would do is you would take all of that period of time and you would adjust downward the average month. I need to look at how they apportioned out over months. So was the weakness towards the end of the period was the middle. And also there will be downward adjustments and I'll get some analysis on this shortly.

Kelly Evans (17:20)

All right.

Steve Liesman (17:20)

On, on whether on the revisions to the subsequent nine months of 25 and.

Kelly Evans (17:27)

26 while you work on. Stay right there. Also with bringing a few more voices to react here to what we just learned. Again, a big jobs report with a lot to unpack. Kitty Richards is senior strategic advisor at Groundwork Collaborative and a former treasury official in the Biden administration. Peter St. Ang is senior economist at the Heritage Foundation. And of course, Steve and Rick are both here with us as well. Peter, go ahead. What are your thoughts?

Peter St. Ange (17:51)

I was a blockbuster report. I was surprised sort of. The meta story here has been that we've already gotten the pain on jobs, meaning two and a half million deportations, federal layoffs, slower federal spending. The problem was that the drivers of jobs, so fed cuts and reshoring, you know, Trump's talking about 4 trillion plus of incremental factory investment. Those all take a long time. They can take years. In fact, Taiwan Semiconductors taking 40 years on their factory out in Arizona. So I expected continuing sort of paper weakness. This was blockbuster.

Kitty Richards (18:25)

Katie, I think that's a somewhat odd take given the large revisions that we saw it. It's great that revisions came in at 860,000,000,000 jobs fewer than we thought rather than 900,000 jobs. But that's still a huge downward revision to last year and it really changes the picture of, you know, near net zero job growth over the course of 2025, which is not what we thought we were looking at last year. I'm glad to see payroll employment came in stronger than anticipated, but a lot of that is because of really low expectations. 60,000 would have been a very bad print. And so I think that this print still demonstrates continued weakness in the labor market. It's nice to see that manufacturing employment is ticking up for the first time in nine months. It had been falling month after month after month. That is not something that you would expect if you see strong investment in manufacturing. Instead, what we've seen is cutting back on some of the investments made in the Biden administration and that really putting a drag on manufacturing employment. So I think that this is going to put the Fed in a continued tough position. We're still seeing consumer sentiment weak, we're seeing inflation stubbornly elevated and we're seeing this continued kind of anemic low hire job market that's holding back wage growth and making life less affordable for the American people.

Kelly Evans (19:58)

Peter, you want to respond to that?

Robert Frank (20:00)

Yeah.

Peter St. Ange (20:01)

Well, the revisions were absolutely massive. But that has to do with the incompetence of the B class models, the birth death specifically, which got boosted during COVID by all these fake businesses like Somali leering centers. So yes, that's a deeper problem with the bls. But in terms of looking at where the job market is right now, it's I think it's far stronger than many of us suspected. Now, as for the pain in manufacturing, so Biden is definitely contributing because a lot of his crony investments in the Inflation Reduction act, those are now going bust. That's taken about 40,000 jobs out. Meanwhile, with deportations, you've got a lot of low end manufacturing that can't pay more than seven bucks an hour. Now I'm not sure that those are the jobs we necessarily want to be here, but you know, again, manufacturing, that should be turning around. Now we've got 4 plus trillion of investment. Rule of thumb is every trillion of investment is worth about a million jobs. But those take time.

Kitty Richards (20:59)

Inflation Reduction act investments are being pulled back because of Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration rolling back those investments. And that's driving up utility prices, especially electricity across the country for American families. So I think it's a little bit bizarre to lay that at the feet of the past administration.

Kelly Evans (21:19)

Go ahead, Steve.

Steve Liesman (21:20)

Just looking at the trend of things, 4148 and 130, and it's a little hard to discern what that trend is. And I would try to take a middle ground on the political here, which is the sense that there's a lot of balls in the air. And some of that I think has created some uncertainty and it's not quite time to say things are settled. And I know what to do here. We saw a big decline in small business employment from the ADP numbers. I think that's a big driver of what's going on. And again, I would just take a little bit of grain of salt. January, they adjust these numbers by almost 2 million. And the difference between the seasonally adjusted and the Nazis is almost 2 million. And the idea that you're going to either this is a different from the trend, all of a sudden everything is okay.

Kelly Evans (22:08)

Right.

Steve Liesman (22:08)

Remember I showed you that chart of retail hiring in October, November, December, it was all negative. So just take it with a grain of salt.

Kelly Evans (22:14)

Rick Ster, what were you going to say?

Rick Santelli (22:17)

I'm going to say that nobody's going to rain on my parade and these numbers are what they are and 50k. I made this hat 2 months ago and the reason I made it is for exactly a day like today, all these naysayers steeped in politics continue to be negative. That's okay because 50k says you've all been wrong. You keep from going in the water even though it's very hot outside. I say all the investment gurus out there jump in the markets in the US because global GDP is going to take a big ramp up and the US Is leading the way.

Kelly Evans (22:54)

Kitty, you want a hat?

Kitty Richards (22:56)

I love that hat. And we have seen stock too bad through the roof. It's just not really helping American workers and families.

Robert Frank (23:06)

I think.

Rick Santelli (23:06)

Well, it's getting better.

Robert Frank (23:08)

Well and let's go back to the Fed. Steve Lisp, do your take it there.

Steve Liesman (23:14)

Everybody's going in their political what's the question?

Robert Frank (23:17)

I'm Fleetwood Mac here. I'm just going to go my own way. The Federal Reserve does this change the odds of a Fed rate cut because inflation rates have come down a little bit and then we hear some of the people you interview so well say focused on the job market. Well, if this number is to be believed, absent the revisions that you just talked about, the job market seems to be pretty good. So does this change the odds of a Fed rate cut?

Steve Liesman (23:42)

Let me tell you how I think the Fed will think about the market and I think they think about it the way I do. And maybe it's reflexive in that I only think that way because I think they think that way. But anyway, I think they create a narrative of what they think is going on and I think they believe. I thought Rick's 50k was going to be for the new run rate of employment, that 50 is the number. I didn't know he went down 50k because I would have had a hat that said 50k. That's the number that I need to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. I think that's what they believe. I read all of the economists and their explanations where you're going. Let me just finish Bill Ricky here. So and look at demographics and you're in that 20 to 70 range here. And I think a number comes along Brian, that's out of sample of what they think. I think they're going to judge it and Say, what else do I know? I know ADP is weak. I know that Jolts is weak. And what I would say, Brian, is the Fed has time. They're going to take the time to look at another employment report, look at the other data that's out there and say, you know, what is this 130 in sample or out of sample? For the moment I would suggest they would believe it's out of sample, but they would get some confidence in the following way. It's not negative, it's not zero. It's up there. And I'm going to say, okay, maybe I've got 20, 30, 40, 50 extra in there. But 50k would be the hat that I would wear for where it ought to be. And I think that's what the Fed.

Kelly Evans (25:10)

Thinks we can all come together around.

Rick Santelli (25:11)

I don't think we get any cuts this year.

Kelly Evans (25:14)

That's why it'll be complicated.

Rick Santelli (25:16)

I think we get any timing the.

Kelly Evans (25:17)

Way you're not alone, Rick.

Robert Frank (25:18)

At this rate, Rick needs to get a Dow 60K hat.

Kelly Evans (25:21)

Thank you all.

Rick Santelli (25:22)

And I'll get a 60 pretty soon. I will. I'm drawing that one as we speak.

Kelly Evans (25:27)

Steve, Rick, thank you guys. Really appreciate it.

Rick Santelli (25:33)

Hey, Fidelity. Can I get a second opinion on stocks in the Fidelity app?

Cameron Costa (25:38)

With Fidelity, it's easy to get an outside opinion from independent experts in a single score. And then when you're ready, trade US stocks and ETFs with no commissions.

Steve Liesman (25:48)

That's right.

Cameron Costa (25:49)

I am always right.

Robert Frank (25:52)

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss online US equity trades and ETFs and retail fidelity account sell order assessment fee not included. Some account types and securities excluded. Details@fidelity.com commissions Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC member.

Kelly Evans (26:01)

NYSE, SIPC not every sale happens at.

Cameron Costa (26:04)

The register before AT&T business Wireless. Checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold.

Kelly Evans (26:20)

That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sail or two.

Cameron Costa (26:24)

Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.

Brian Sullivan (26:28)

AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything.

Cameron Costa (26:33)

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Brian Sullivan (27:27)

We are clear. Thanks guys.

Rick Santelli (27:39)

Hey Fidelity Can I get a second opinion on stocks in the Fidelity app?

Cameron Costa (27:43)

With Fidelity, it's easy to get an outside opinion from independent experts in a single score. And then when you're ready, trade US stocks and ETFs with no commissions.

Steve Liesman (27:54)

That's right.

Cameron Costa (27:55)

I am always right.

Robert Frank (27:57)

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss, online US equity trades and ETFs and.

Rick Santelli (28:00)

Retail fidelity account sell order assessment fee.

Robert Frank (28:02)

Not included, some account types and securities excluded. Details@fidelity.com commissions Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC member NYSE, SIPC.