Squawk Pod: Kevin Hassett on Tariffs & Ken Burns on The American Revolution (11/17/25)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on two central themes: economic policy and American history. The Squawk Box anchors (Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick off today) discuss recent developments in markets, White House policies on tariffs and affordability with economic advisor Kevin Hassett, market valuation with Lori Calvasina of RBC, and later dive into the importance and complexity of the American Revolution with documentary filmmaker Ken Burns.

Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. Market Update and Economic Jitters

• Bitcoin & Equities:

  • Bitcoin saw an 8% decline last week, dipping below $95,000, raising eyebrows about volatility and its non-correlation with other assets.
  • Major focus on forthcoming Nvidia earnings report, considered a bellwether for tech and AI stocks.
  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway took a surprising $5B stake in Alphabet (Google).
  • Ongoing concerns about high equity valuations and breadth in S&P 500.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “I don’t know if anyone really thought it would hold 100 [Bitcoin]. I think Novograd said it would, but he didn’t really have a lot of conviction…” — Joe Kernen [02:54]
  • “The NASDAQ's been ... you know, the AI stocks obviously feeling the nosebleed territory.” — Joe Kernen [03:30]
  • “We’ve been talking about this for two weeks now... It feels like the whole game is riding on this [Nvidia].” — Andrew Ross Sorkin [03:56]

2. Market Valuation & Private Credit Analysis with Lori Calvasina (RBC)

• Valuation Concerns:

  • The market faces a “plain old fashioned valuation problem,” with major AI and tech stocks carrying the market — raising risk of indigestion but not necessarily a crash.
  • S&P 500 ex-top-10 trades at approx. 18x earnings, not expensive compared to history but at the higher end of post-COVID recovery multiples.
  • Tech (esp. AI) margin expectations are up, but industrials and materials down.

• Private Credit Worries:

  • Increasing focus on private credit’s lack of transparency, compared to earlier fretting over commercial real estate.
  • Caution is warranted but systemic risk perceived to be in check due to vigilance, especially compared to pre-2008.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “You don’t have to throw the baby out with the bathwater.” — Lori Calvasina [09:27]
  • “We have to consolidate a bit, have a little bit of indigestion.” — Lori Calvasina [09:27]
  • “The breadth had been improving...” — Joe Kernen [11:20]

• On Sentiment:

  • Investor sentiment has stalled, matching choppy sideways market movements after a strong rally.

• On Private Credit:

  • “The lack of transparency makes people nervous ... there are enough of us with gray hair around to take some lessons from those [past crises].” — Lori Calvasina [16:02, 16:20]

• Timestamps:

  • [09:15–13:47] Valuation & margins
  • [14:35–17:20] Private credit & past financial crises

3. Interview: Kevin Hassett (White House Economic Advisor)

• Tariffs and Food Price Inflation:

  • President Trump has cut tariffs on over 200 food items (e.g., coffee, beef, bananas, tomatoes) to reduce prices on goods not produced in the U.S.
  • Purpose: Blanket removal to avoid piecemeal exemptions.

• Inflation and Living Costs:

  • Affordability remains in focus because past high inflation led to lasting price increases; real wages fell during the previous administration but have seen a $1,200 increase this year.
  • Hassett assigns blame for inflation primarily to his predecessors’ policies.

• Fed Independence:

  • Strong emphasis on maintaining Federal Reserve independence, despite past criticism.
  • Counsel for Fed to “turn a page” and rely on data.

• Workforce and AI Productivity:

  • AI credited for rising productivity, possibly leading to slower labor market expansions as firms can do more with fewer people.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “Purchasing power has gone up ... real wages ... have gone up by about $1,200 this year. So the way to think about it is that we've dug a $3,000 hole because of Biden policies, and we've gained $1,200 on the way out already...” — Kevin Hassett [26:00]
  • “It’s just kind of astonishing to me that the cost problem is somehow being blamed on us.” — Kevin Hassett [01:04, echoed at 26:00]
  • “What the president just did with food is decide to make, like a blanket movement so that we weren't going through each deal and picking this and that.” — Kevin Hassett [01:12, 27:57]
  • “I totally reject that ... if you go in and you're going to be the Fed chair, your job 100% of the time is to run an independent, data driven Fed.” — Kevin Hassett [29:57]
  • “Firms are finding that AI is making their workers so productive that they don’t necessarily have to hire the new kids out of college.” — Kevin Hassett [18:08, 31:28]

• Timestamps:

  • [23:30–33:20] Tariffs, wages, Fed, labor market

4. The American Revolution with Ken Burns

• Film Motivation and Scope:

  • Burns describes his nearly 10-year journey to create a comprehensive series on the American Revolution for PBS.
  • Aims to present the Revolution as both a world war and civil war, emphasizing its complexity, bloodiness, and transformative impact on citizenship and democracy.

• Storytelling Approach:

  • Extensive use of reenactment footage and 400 first-person quotes read by A-list actors.
  • Avoids direct political analogies but acknowledges the Revolution’s constant relevance.

• Modern Relevance:

  • Advocates understanding the Revolution’s complexity to foster greater perspective and national unity amidst today’s divisions.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “We wanted to do a deep dive into what I think is the most important event since the birth of Christ, the creation of the United States.” — Ken Burns [01:22, 35:32]
  • “It’s a complicated film. There are Native Americans involved. We can’t pretend they’re not involved. There are enslaved and free Black people involved. Women, half the population, are central to the success of the resistance...” — Ken Burns [39:58]
  • “If I had to say, and I usually don’t on any film, I’d like to put the US back in the US with this film.” — Ken Burns [41:00]
  • “He [Washington] gives up his power twice ... Everybody was happy for him to be, you know, president for life. And he said, no, the highest office in the land is citizen. He got what this experiment was.” — Ken Burns [42:49]
  • “Right now things are really complicated and the American Revolution is the beginning of that complication ... and we should celebrate that complexity.” — Ken Burns [33:33, 45:29]

• Timestamps:

  • [34:58–46:08] Ken Burns on the Revolution

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Joe Kernen on Market Psychology:

  • “We’re not Pollyannish, not whistling past the graveyard. Maybe we can get a meteor.” [22:18]

• Ken Burns on Historical Complexity:

  • “It isn’t just great ideas in Philadelphia. It’s incredibly bloody.” [37:35]

• Kevin Hassett on Economic Blame:

  • “It’s just kind of astonishing to me that the cost problem is somehow being blamed on us.” [01:04, 26:00]

• Ken Burns on Reenactment:

  • “We have a cast of like 60 people... Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep, Sir Kenneth Branagh...” [39:03]

• Ken Burns on American Identity:

  • “The highest office in the land is citizen.” [42:49]

Conclusion

This episode of Squawk Pod delivers a rich mix of real-time economic analysis, market skepticism, and political context, capped by an insightful, humanistic conversation about American identity and history. The interplay between urgent economic policy—tariffs, inflation, valuations, and AI’s impact—and the enduring lessons of the American Revolution is underscored throughout, with guests providing both numbers-driven and philosophical perspectives.

Listeners will walk away with a clearer understanding of why affordability is such a pressing issue, informed skepticism about market volatility and valuation, and a deeply textured sense of how America’s complex past holds answers and hope for today’s equally complex present.

Detailed Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:25–03:56] — Market volatility, Bitcoin, and AI stocks
• [09:15–13:47] — Lori Calvasina on market valuations
• [14:35–17:20] — Private credit market concerns
• [23:30–33:20] — Kevin Hassett on inflation, tariffs, and the Fed
• [34:58–46:08] — Ken Burns on the American Revolution

For further exploration:

• Kevin Hassett on direct payments & inflation policy: [23:30–27:57]
• Ken Burns, “I'd like to put the US back in the US”: [41:00]
• Discussion on market breadth, margin debt, and historical parallels: [20:13–22:30]