Squawk Pod: “Please, Spare Me.” Chris Christie on Kalshi & Polymarket

Date: February 20, 2026
Host: CNBC (Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin)
Guests: Chris Christie (Former NJ Governor, American Gaming Association Advisor), Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida)

Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod dives into the blurred lines and intensifying debates around prediction markets, sports betting, and regulation. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, now a strategic advisor to the American Gaming Association, takes sharp aim at prediction market firms Kalshi and Polymarket, calling out what he views as attempts to bypass established state gambling laws and avoid oversight. The show also features insights into business migration trends, tax policy, and infrastructure in Florida with Governor Ron DeSantis. Other hot topics include the Supreme Court’s impending decisions on tariffs and Federal Reserve appointments, and the potential impact of blockbuster media mergers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Private Markets, Blue Owl, and Liquidity Crunch

Timestamps: 03:18–06:47

• Blue Owl Capital’s asset sale: Shares fell nearly 8% after news broke of a $1.4B asset sell-off and a plan to accelerate capital returns to investors. Concerns about liquidity and redemption “gates.”
• Andrew Ross Sorkin: Suggests that illiquid investment instruments should be targeted by age, limiting older investors’ exposure:

  “It seems to me that […] if you’re 60 years old, maybe you should not be allowed to be in these funds.” (05:38)

• Discussion on adapting investor expectations and the future of private credit offerings.

2. Middle East Tensions & Oil Markets

Timestamps: 06:52–08:24

• Growing speculation on U.S. military action against Iran, as President Trump signals a decision within 10 days.
• Joe Kernen:

  “There would be enough time, 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum.” (07:30)

• Markets remain jittery given potential impacts on oil supply and geopolitical stability.

3. Hollywood Consolidation Concerns

Timestamps: 08:24–10:15

• James Cameron’s Letter on Netflix-Warner Bros. Deal: Cameron predicts “massive job losses,” harm to theaters, and threats to creative autonomy.
• Andrew Ross Sorkin: (On Hollywood’s choices)

  “It’s a double-edged sword.” (10:03)

• Panel notes that Hollywood is faced with tough, lose-lose scenarios between consolidation and outsider ownership.

4. Supreme Court Watch: Trump’s Tariff Authority & Federal Reserve Firing

Timestamps: 10:25–15:41

• Awaited decisions on Trump's emergency tariffs (via IEPA) and presidential authority to dismiss Fed board members.
• Discussion on the secrecy and internal dynamics of Supreme Court decisions.
• Producer/Technical Director:

  “I want to know how many Supreme Court clerks are placing prediction market bets on this.” (14:36)

5. Spotlight: Chris Christie vs. Prediction Markets

Timestamps: 16:12–31:52

Regulatory Tensions: State vs. Federal

• Christie is highly critical of the CFTC’s push for federal oversight of prediction and gambling markets:

  “I’m confused that a Republican administration believes in greater federal regulation […] when the states are already doing a great job.” (19:08, Chris Christie)

Accusations Against Kalshi & Polymarket

• Avoiding Oversight:

  “What they’re trying to do is avoid regulation and, and avoid being taxed at the state level. Guess what? DraftKings would like to do that. FanDuel would like to do that, BetMGM would like to do that, but they’re following the law. These guys are breaking the law.” (22:15, Chris Christie)

• Christie asserts these firms are operating outside state laws, particularly in states that explicitly forbid gambling (e.g., Alabama, Georgia, Utah).

“Duck Test” Analogy

• On argument that Kalshi/Polymarket are not “the house”:

  “If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.” (22:07, Chris Christie)

On Marketed Audience & Consumer Protection

• Alleges firms market to underage customers—unlike regulated sportsbooks which enforce a 21+ standard.
• Points out that 90% of Kalshi/Polymarket activity is sports betting, challenging their argument of being different from traditional sportsbooks.

Insider Trading & Prediction Markets

• Addresses the complexity of policing insider trading on non-financial events (e.g., sports outcomes, entertainment). Skeptical of existing surveillance claims:

  “The CFTC has no enforcement function. They have no employees right now in the enforcement area. None. Zero.” (27:12, Chris Christie)

• Warns about lack of recourse for consumers cheated by unregulated platforms.

Federal vs. State Regulatory Gaps

• Christie differentiates between sports gambling—which he says is adequately policed by states—and non-sports prediction markets, suggesting a possible federal role there if states don't act.
• Calls for equal enforcement and competitive fairness for all betting firms.

On Political Influence

• Pushes back on questions regarding Don Jr.’s advisory roles with Kalshi/Polymarket, declining to speculate on conflicts but calls for policy consistency from the administration.

Notable Quote:

“If I were king for the day, you should be very nervous.” (30:43, Chris Christie, on federal crackdown)

6. Florida’s Wealth Migration, Taxes, and Infrastructure with Gov. Ron DeSantis

Timestamps: 34:52–44:22

Tax Policy and Relocation Trends

• Wealthy individuals and businesses, including Palantir, continue moving to Florida due to tax, business, and political climates.
• Ron DeSantis:

  “This wealth tax is having a huge impact on people fleeing to Florida… These are really, really big folks who are coming.” (35:21)

Property Tax Reform & Housing Affordability

• Seeking to phase out property tax for primary residences (homesteads); notes most property tax revenue comes from out-of-state owners.
• Addresses housing costs, “elite” school preferences among new arrivals, and the natural cyclical corrections in real estate:

  “I do think that that will moderate and I do think you’ll see a correction… not something that we can do from government.” (40:54, DeSantis)

Infrastructure & Growth Pressures

• Recent and ongoing efforts to accelerate infrastructure to accommodate population influx.
• Constraints in major metro areas like Miami but some regional success farther north.

AI and Child Protection

• DeSantis unveils Florida’s “AI Bill of Rights,” emphasizing parental and youth protections around technology:

  “Our Bill of Rights is basically protecting young people, protecting parents, providing transparency… There’s not a single thing in that Bill of Rights that is going to stymie any type of legitimate innovation.” (42:50, DeSantis)

On Prediction Markets in Florida

• The intersection of Seminole tribe gaming exclusivity and new prediction market platforms is still being addressed:

  “We’re kind of trying to get our mind around that.” (44:31, DeSantis)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chris Christie (on regulation avoidance):

  “Please, spare me.” (22:15)

• Joe Kernen (on prediction markets and the Supreme Court):

  “I just think it’s kind of cool that the Supreme Court, of all the institutions… still… there’s still something about it. And those robes and the mystery…” (13:22)

• James Cameron (via letter, summarized):

  Warns that a Netflix-Warner Bros. deal would “lead to massive job losses and decimate the movie theater business.” (08:24)

Additional Timestamps for Key Segments

• Blue Owl/Private Markets: 03:18–06:47
• Middle East/Iran: 06:52–08:24
• Hollywood M&A: 08:24–10:15
• Supreme Court Watch: 10:25–15:41
• Chris Christie Segment: 16:12–31:52
• Ron DeSantis Florida Focus: 34:52–44:22

Tone & Language

• Chris Christie: Direct, combative, seasoned political operator defending state law and “fairness.”
• Hosts: Analytical, playful at times, with technical and financial nuance.
• Ron DeSantis: Policy-focused, pragmatic, delivers talking points with an eye toward business and family interests.

Conclusion

This episode provides a lively, multifaceted discussion on the rapidly evolving overlap of finance, gambling, state-federal dynamics, and public policy. Chris Christie fiercely advocates for strong, state-level gambling oversight, framing prediction markets as a regulatory end-run. Governor DeSantis weighs in on Florida’s surging business appeal and the policy responses to affordability challenges. Throughout, the episode’s candid debate and high-level expertise offer deep insight for anyone tracking finance, regulation, and American political economy.