Squawk Pod Episode Summary

Episode Title: Protein Goals, Cathie Wood, & A Geopolitical Nobel Prize
Date: January 16, 2026
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Special Guests: Cathie Wood (Ark Invest), Peter Rahal (David Protein CEO), Robert Frank (CNBC)

Episode Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod dives into three high-profile themes:

1. Market and Tech Outlooks for 2026: A candid, in-depth conversation with Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) on the year ahead, tech innovation, Tesla, and crypto.
2. California’s Proposed Billionaire Tax: Robert Frank unpacks the potential impact and controversy swirling around a proposed wealth tax targeting California’s ultra-wealthy.
3. Protein Craze and Food Innovation: Serial entrepreneur Peter Rahal explains how protein became a nutritional focal point, driven in part by the popularity of GLP-1 medications and new science in food tech.

The episode blends serious economic analysis with lighter moments, candid debate, and some playful banter between the hosts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Global Geopolitics and the US-Taiwan Chips Deal

• US-Taiwan Trade Agreement: US limits certain tariffs on Taiwan in exchange for $250B in Taiwanese tech investments and credit guarantees. Non-complying Taiwanese chip companies face steep tariffs (04:09).
• Chip Wars & China: The deal is positioned as pivotal in the US-China technological rivalry, with further discussion expected at the upcoming Davos conference.
• Notable Quote:
  "So a new move in the chip war, but also maybe in the larger geopolitical scheme with China. I imagine that's going to be part of the conversation we'll be having a lot next week in Davos." — Becky Quick (03:54)

2. Nobel Peace Prize Sideshow: Venezuela and Trump

• Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corino Machado presents Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize medal — a symbolic gesture, not an official transfer, sparking memes and renewed debate over the Prize’s meaning.
• Host Commentary:
  "Because of Trump and who he is, he will never win the Nobel Prize and he probably should have. And because of Obama and who he was, he did win the Nobel Prize for doing absolutely nothing. So the whole prize itself has been..." — Joe Kernen (05:13)
• Meta-Discussion: Hosts joke about avoiding social media backlash around Trump, haircuts, and contentious topics (06:07).

3. California Billionaire Wealth Tax Controversy

• Robert Frank explains the wealth tax proposal: a 5% annual tax on billionaires' total wealth, with particularly thorny impacts for those with super-voting stock.
• Key Issue: Valuation of non-public super-voting shares could dramatically increase taxes for founders (e.g., Larry Page, Sergey Brin).
• Viral Debate: Gary Tan (Y Combinator CEO) leads criticism, calling the tax "poorly designed."
• Authors of the Tax: Insist the critics' interpretation is "false" and cite clear legal provisions.
• Notable Segments/Timestamps:
  • Tax mechanics and controversy: [07:15–10:55]
  • Possibility of passage & loopholes: [10:55–12:59]
• Notable Quotes:
  "The tech executives I talked to are certain it's gonna pass because it's a tax that only applies to 200 people." — Robert Frank (10:55)
  "If they can get it, they're going to take it. Right? If there's an interpretation that allows them to get the six..." — Joe Kernen (09:43)
• Exit Strategies: Discussion of whether trusts or asset shifts provide relief; skepticism abounds regarding effective tax avoidance.
• Legal Challenges: Likely, with challenges expected in both state and federal courts.

4. Cathie Wood: Opportunities & Risks in 2026

[Key Interview, 15:21–26:49]

• 2025 in Review:
  • ARK funds among the year's top performers despite two major corrections.
  • Lessons learned: Valuations are likely to compress; historic analogs suggest strong markets can coexist with declining multiples.
• Inflation & Deflation:
  • Input prices and productivity improvements (especially tech) are bringing deflationary pressure.
  • "Our focus is exclusively on technologically enabled innovation... robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, especially blockchain technology and multi-omic sequencing, health care. Those are all very deflationary in their impact." — Cathie Wood (17:30)
• Tesla's Evolving Narrative:
  • The market is pivoting from simple EV sales to the Robotaxi (autonomous vehicle) opportunity.
  • Lower-margin auto sales could give way to high-margin recurring revenue:
    "Those margins are more in the 70s and 80s..." (18:51)
• Robotics & AI:
  • Optimus robots offer huge potential but are dramatically more complex than Robotaxi deployment.
  • "An Optimus robot is going to be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to a robotaxi." — Cathie Wood (20:15)
• SpaceX Valuation:
  • Predicts near doubling to an $800B valuation, potentially becoming the first trillion-dollar space company, driven by data center opportunities in orbit.
  • "He’s [Elon Musk] not looking at how things are done on earth. He’s trying to figure out what’s possible in space." (22:28)
• Bitcoin & Crypto Outlook:
  • Stablecoins are absorbing some of Bitcoin’s use cases but the crypto shakeout clarified that Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana are the clear top three for institutions.
  • ARK’s Bitcoin targets: $750K base, $1.5M bull case.
  • "Stablecoins are usurping one of the roles that we thought bitcoin would serve in emerging markets especially... We’re holding it where it is. Our bull case at 1.5 million base at 750." — Cathie Wood (24:03)
  • "We actually think we have it on good sources that [the October '25 crypto flash crash] has washed out of the system." (24:03)
• Market Parallels:
  • No direct analogy to 1929, but competitive capital markets and Fed intervention make it a time to watch.

5. Protein Craze & Food-Tech Disruption

[Peter Rahal Interview, 28:56–37:35]

• Protein in the GLP-1 Era:
  • The use of GLP-1 weight-loss medications (e.g., Ozempic) exposes new risks of muscle loss and amplifies consumer focus on increasing protein intake.
  • Peter Rahal, noted for RXBAR, has launched “David Protein”—high-protein, ultra-low-calorie bars driven by innovative fat replacement technology.
  • "It's the protein of a meal and the calories of a snack is the best way to think of it." — Peter Rahal (30:14)
• The Technology:
  • Proprietary modified triglycerides (‘epg’ from Apogee) deliver fat-like taste and structure with zero caloric absorption.
  • "We propoxylate the glycerol backbone so lipase can't break it down into energy. It tastes like fat, but your body doesn’t register." — Peter Rahal (31:57)
  • Bars deliver 28g protein at just 150 calories.
• Applications & Future Plans:
  • Technology can be used in chocolate (as cocoa butter substitute), fried foods, and other snacks.
  • Frying application is especially promising: "French fries, potato chips, Dorito-type product." (34:17)
• Difference from Previous Fat Replacements:
  • Unlike Olestra, the product is stable, solid at body temp, and free of “leakage” side effects.
  • "It was the Enron of food, really…104 degree melt point. That's the big difference." — Peter Rahal (34:23, 34:37)
• Brand Origin:
  • “David” refers to the Michelangelo statue, symbolizing excellence and discipline.
• Consumer Reception & Flavor Innovation:
  • Wildly popular (“bars flying off the shelves”), limited by production for a time.
  • "I think some people love outrageous, outrageous…" — Becky Quick (37:42)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If they can get it, they're going to take it. Right? If there's an interpretation that allows them to get the six…” – Joe Kernen on the California tax (09:43)
• "Stablecoins are usurping one of the roles that we thought bitcoin would serve in emerging markets especially..." — Cathie Wood (24:03)
• “An Optimus robot is going to be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to a robotaxi.” — Cathie Wood (20:15)
• "This is really true? ... It's like a protein Scud missile." — Joe Kernen and Peter Rahal, on the nutritional profile (30:05)
• "French fries, potato chips, Dorito type product." — Peter Rahal, on future applications of his fat-replacement technology (34:17)
• “Because of Trump and who he is, he will never win the Nobel Prize and he probably should have. And because of Obama and who he was, he did win the Nobel Prize for doing absolutely nothing. So the whole prize itself has been…” — Joe Kernen (05:13)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• US-Taiwan Chips Trade/Geo-Politics: 03:10–04:09
• Venezuela Nobel Peace Prize to Trump: 04:09–06:09
• California Wealth/Billionaire Tax: 07:15–12:59
• Cathie Wood: Market & Tech Outlook: 15:21–26:49
• Peter Rahal: Protein & Food Innovation: 28:56–37:35

Summary Takeaways

• Economic and Geopolitical Winds: The episode underscores the intersection of global politics (Taiwan-US-China), state-level taxation, and their impact on tech and finance.
• Investment Outlook: Cathie Wood provides a bullish yet pragmatic perspective on innovation, noting that technological deflation and new business models (robotaxis, crypto) will shape the market.
• Protein's Moment: The health and wellness theme continues with a spotlight on innovation in food science, showing how American diets and consumer trends are rapidly reacting to pharmaceutical and macro health trends (GLP-1s, protein needs).
• Engagement and Humor: The hosts maintain a light, playful rapport even in complex or controversial discussions, keeping the tone accessible and lively.

This summary provides a complete, timestamped guide to this episode’s topics and thought leaders, ensuring you catch all the substance and witty exchanges, whether or not you’ve listened.