Scott Bessent From Beijing 5/14/26

Summary

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Squawk Pod – “Scott Bessent From Beijing” (May 14, 2026)

Episode Overview

This episode centers around President Trump’s high-profile state visit to Beijing, featuring an exclusive, news-packed interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Reporting live from China, the CNBC team, led by Joe Kernen and Andrew Ross Sorkin, dissects US-China relations in real time, touching on trade, AI leadership and safety, foreign investment, the energy market, and geopolitical flashpoints ranging from Taiwan to Iran. With appearances by President Trump, Secretary Bessent, and Eamon Javers on the ground, listeners get insider perspectives at the heart of major global negotiations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Atmosphere and Stakes in Beijing

• President Trump’s visit to China is marked by grand ceremonies, a massive CEO delegation (Elon Musk, among others), and symbolism aimed at thawing tensions and driving business.
• The episode opens with the “key story of the day”: high-level US-China statecraft in action.
• (05:19) President Trump:
  “We have the greatest businessmen, the biggest and I guess the best in the world. … they’re here today to pay respects to you and to China and they look forward to trade and doing business.”

2. The Taiwan Issue and The ‘Thucydides Trap’

• Chinese President Xi Jinping directly warns the US about the dangers of mishandling Taiwan, raising the spectre of the “Thucydides trap”—the risk of competition devolving into conflict between rising and established superpowers.
• (05:50) Eamon Javers explains:
  “Xi Jinping raising that sort of philosophical point to say… Can the US and China manage not to fall into that trap… time and time again throughout history?”

3. Nvidia, AI Chips, and Bilateral Tech Competition

• Timely discussion about rumors the US cleared ten Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s H200 AI chip.
• (14:23) Secretary Bessent, when pressed for confirmation, demurs:
  “Yeah, Joe, this is news to me. I know there’s been a lot of back and forth on the H200s and we’ll have to see on that. That’s a Commerce Department function.”
• Eamon Javers provides deep context on why no chips have yet changed hands—Chinese concern over Huawei, suspicion of US tampering, and other geopolitical anxieties.
  (07:31) Javers:
  “Jensen Huang is at this state dinner in order to try to break that logjam and to try to sell some of those Nvidia chips, if he can.”

4. US-China Trade, Foreign Investment, and Tariffs

• Secretary Bessent discusses plans to create a bilateral Board of Trade and a Board of Investment to steer and pre-clear non-strategic investments (e.g., to bypass CFIUS).
• On proposals of “trillions” of Chinese investment: (12:29)
  “Again, Joe, I’m not sure where this trillion-dollar investment number has come from. … The purpose of this Board of Investment is to decide up front what are the non-strategic, non-sensitive areas… But look, there are plenty of things China could invest in in the US.”
• Bessent reiterates emphasis on mutual opening:
  “President Trump today told Xi Jinping that he wants to open up China, and China should open up.”
• On tariff negotiations:
  (18:10) “So we’re going to form a board of trade… for non-critical, non-strategic areas… So something like fireworks or very low-end consumer goods… And then there are many things they want to buy from us…”

5. Key Sectors: Boeing, Beef, and Beans

• Senator Steve Daines’ “three Bs” come up:
  (17:11) Bessent:
  “Those are big. I think we’re going to see the large Boeing orders. Beef was more… non-tariff trade barriers against our great American ranchers. … Beans are really all taken care of.”

6. Energy Market Dynamics and Iran

• Deep dive into the energy crisis due to the Strait of Hormuz closure by Iran, its adverse effects on oil prices, and China’s vested interest in reopening the strait.

• (19:41) Bessent:
  “China gets about a third of its energy needs from the Gulf. So a reopening of the Strait benefits China… Unfortunately, they’d been buying… about 90% of [Iranian oil].”

• On the impact and expected resolution:
  (23:38) “Crude, West Texas crude, six, nine months out is substantially lower. The curve is in substantial backwardation… the market’s going to be very, very well supplied.” (22:59) “We’re at record production. We’re an energy superpower, and we’re just going to… keep pumping.”

• On the severity of Iran’s predicament and regime instability:
  (21:53) “Thus far this year, they executed 30, 40,000 people, many peaceful protesters. … we’re at the point where soldiers aren’t getting paid, they’re not able to replenish their weapons stocks…”

7. Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Signals

• High inflation readings (hot PPI, CPI), energy’s role, and what happens if/when the Strait reopens.
• (23:38) Bessent:
  “I was never on Team Transient during COVID…But here… I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock.”
• Discussion of new Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s likely path: more hot inflation numbers may be followed by “substantial disinflation.”

8. The AI Safety Protocols and US Advantage

• Bessent emphasizes need for US-China collaboration on AI guardrails, highlighting enduring American leadership: (28:56) “All three of the leading companies, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google/Gemini, their large language models are increasing in power… The US is the undisputed leader.” “…The two AI superpowers are going to start talking. We’re going to set up protocol… to make sure non-state actors don’t get ahold of these models.”
• Asserts AI company cooperation and focus on voluntary best practices:
  “All three of the big players have been very good partners with the US government because what we don’t want to do is stifle innovation.”

9. Taiwan and US ‘Strategic Ambiguity’

• Bessent refuses to get ahead of policy shifts; the US position remains “strategically ambiguous” but resolute. (33:30) “It wouldn’t be a US-China summit without the Taiwan issue coming up and I’m confident that President Trump understands the issues around that and is very, very resolute in his answers… I’m sure we’ll be hearing more from him in the coming days.”
• Hosts analyze the delicate balance and growing pressure on the administration.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Trump, on top CEOs in China:
  (05:19) “I wanted only the top and they're here today to pay respects to you and to China and they look forward to trade and doing business.”
• Xi Jinping’s warning on Taiwan:
  (05:50) Summary: “Taiwanese independence is not compatible with peace in the Strait of Taiwan.”
• Javers on the Nvidia deal:
  (07:31) “Jensen Huang is at this state dinner in order to try to break that logjam and to try to sell some of those Nvidia chips, if he can.”
• Bessent on AI leadership:
  (28:56) “The US is the undisputed leader… We’re going to set up protocol in terms of how do we go forward with best practices for AI to make sure non-state actors don't get a hold of these models.”
• Bessent (23:38), on inflation and energy:
  “I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock… I think core inflation will continue coming down. ... I don't know whether it’s a few days or a few weeks. And energy inflation will come back down.”
• Bessent, on US trade advantage:
  (15:24) “The deficit country always has a stronger position because we do have a deficit, and we are China’s largest customer.”
• Bessent, on the severity inside Iran:
  (21:53) "Thus far this year, they executed 30, 40,000 people, many peaceful protesters... soldiers aren’t getting paid, they’re not able to replenish their weapons stocks...”
• Bessent, on AI company cooperation:
  (28:56) “All three of the big players have been very good partners with the US government because what we don’t want to do is stifle innovation.”

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• US-China Summit, Trump and Xi Opening Moves: 04:17 – 07:04
• Nvidia / AI Chips, Jensen Huang’s Mission: 07:04 – 09:24
• Bessent Interview, Opening (Economic Deliverables, Trade Boards): 11:09 – 13:51
• Chinese Investment, Tariffs, “Trillion-Dollar” Talk: 12:29 – 15:24
• Trade Sectors, “Three Bs” (Boeing, Beef, Beans): 16:53 – 17:45
• Energy Markets, Strait of Hormuz, Iran: 19:24 – 23:38
• Inflation and Rate Cuts, New Fed Chief: 22:59 – 26:11
• AI Leadership, Safety, Protocol discussions: 28:56 – 32:58
• Taiwan and Strategic Ambiguity: 32:58 – 34:50
• Wrap-up, Hosts’ Analysis: 34:50 – 38:12

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Summary: Tone and Takeaways

The episode is brisk, insider-y, and focused on the immediate drama and implications of the US-China dynamic. The hosts maintain a spirited, occasionally skeptical tone, pressing for specifics on chips, trade, and international flashpoints while acknowledging ongoing uncertainty (“I don’t want to front run the President”).

Key Takeaways:

• The US-China relationship remains deeply complex, with genuine efforts at practical cooperation (AI, trade boards) balanced by persistent strategic rivalry (Taiwan, technology).
• Treasury Secretary Bessent is cautious, diplomatic, and frequently defers final news to the President—reflecting both high stakes and the White House’s desire to control major announcements.
• Taiwan and Iran hover over all financial and security discussions as existential flashpoints.
• The US is leveraging its position as a trade deficit nation and technological superpower, seeking to set global rules, manage risk, and extract economic wins while remaining vigilant.
• Major business opportunity is intertwined with political risk—AI, energy, and foreign investment will be the battlegrounds for global leadership amid this new phase of US-China engagement.

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For listeners wanting an incisive overview of high-level US-China policy in 2026, Squawk Pod delivers rare access, rapid-fire substance, and a front-row seat to global economic history in the making.

Transcript

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[Eamon Javers]

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member nyse, SIPC Bring in show music, please.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod high stakes in Beijing. Our Eamon Javers reports.

[Eamon Javers]

This is one of the great questions of history. Can the US And China manage not to fall into that trap of competition and conflict and war?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Treasury Secretary Scott Besant joins us exclusively from China.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

President Trump today told Xi Jinping that he wants to open up China and China should open up.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Benson said our two countries would create an AI safety protocol to develop the technology.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

The US Is the the undisputed leader in the world. Here we have the greatest AI companies, plus chips.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Taiwan oil prices.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

West Texas crude six, nine months out is substantially lower. The curve is in substantial backwardation.

[Narrator/Announcer]

A lot of news made in this conversation. You don't want to miss a moment.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

We're at record production. We're in energy superpower, and we're just going to, we're going to keep pumping.

[Narrator/Announcer]

It's Thursday, May 14, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Stand Andrew five, three, two, one, up. And Andrew.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Mike, good morning. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live the NASDAQ markets at Times Square. I'm Andrew Osork along with Joe Kernan. Becky is off. Today.

[Joe Kernan]

We grappled with everything y really warm PPI numbers. And remember the initially the the Dow had been down, but the Nasdaq was up 300, right? The Dow was down about a hundred. The S and P was flat. Those numbers came out and the NASDAQ's gains got paired from 300 to about 70. Remember that? And the Dow, which had been down about a hundred, was down 300 by the end of the day. The the Dow Barely ended lower.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yep.

[Joe Kernan]

The S and p is up 44 points to a new high. Another new high. And the Nasdaq was up at one point, almost 400.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What's your explanation?

[Joe Kernan]

I don't chip chips. China chips. Did you see the, the Nvidia news which, which happened right before I was going to. At least Reuters was reporting right before I was going to interview the treasury secretary about the H200 says apparently going to be. And I think, you know, you talked about that one of the reasons that it picked old Jensen up in Alaska was because this is such an important

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

thing for to throw last minute deal into the mix.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Under the new situation, President Trump and I, fully aware of the expectations of

[Eamon Javers]

our two nations and the international community, have had multiple meetings and phone calls and kept China, US Relationships generally stable.

[President Donald Trump]

Thank you again, President Xi for this beautiful welcome. And tonight it is my honor to extend an invitation to you and Madam Peng to visit us at the White House this September 24th.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Key story of the day, President Trump meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. When we get straight over to Eamon Jabbers. He is on the ground in China this morning. Good morning.

[Eamon Javers]

Yeah, good morning to you, Andrew. You're looking at live pictures now of President Trump arriving at the Great hall of the People. This is for the banquet this evening. Remember it is evening here in Beijing and they have a star studded cast of CEOs and political figures attending this state banquet at the Great Hall. You just saw the president arrive. They're about to get underway. We've seen cameras in the room. Elon Musk is there along with a whole host of American CEOs as well. The president was greeted by pomp and ceremony earlier today at that same Great hall of the People. We saw soldiers marching, adoring children and of course this handshake, which was a large part of the reason that President Trump traveled halfway around the world to come to Beijing to signal friendly relations with the Chinese side and he hopes to cut some significant business deals that the president at that meeting touted the size of his CEO contingent. Here's what he said.

[President Donald Trump]

I just want to say on behalf of all of the great delegation that we have, we have the greatest businessmen, the biggest and I guess the best in the world. We have amazing people and they're all with me, every single one of them. We asked the top 30 in the world, every single one of them said yes. And I didn't want the second or the third in the company. I wanted only the top and they're here today to pay respects to you and to China and they look forward to trade and doing business.

[Eamon Javers]

So some fairly effusive remarks from President Trump at that bilateral meeting. We also saw comments from Xi Jinping at that meeting. Two warnings for the US Side from Xi Jinping. One was on Taiwan. The Chinese leader said that the Taiwan issue, if the US doesn't handle it properly, could lead to a dangerous confrontation between the two countries. He said Taiwanese independence is not compatible with peace in the Strait of Taiwan. So a stern warning there on the issue of Taiwan. And also the Chinese leader bringing up this concept of the Thucydides trap, the concept that the rising power in the world will always challenge the established power in the world and that will always lead to a conflict. Xi Jinping raising that sort of philosophical point to say that this is one of the great questions of history. Can the US And China manage not to fall into that trap of competition and conflict and war that we've seen time and time again throughout history? So we'll monitor this state dinner that you're seeing right here. Again, trying to get a sense as we look at these live pictures guys, of who all is in the room. But it is a star studded cast of CEOs and corporate executives there. Back over to you.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Hey Eamon, before you go, do you have any backstory background on the the whole Jensen pickup in Alaska story? And I asked as Joe and I were just talking about this headline this morning about these H200 Nvidia chips that may be now in the offing as part of a deal to 10 Chinese firms. Obviously it sounds like he wasn't on the original either invite list or manifest or something.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Yeah.

[Eamon Javers]

So a couple things, you know, I don't have all the detail on this, Andrew, so I have to be careful where we are. We don't have great communications. We haven't heard anything from the US Government, but we don't have any confirmation that anything new at all has happened with regard to Nvidia and the chips. Right. I mean, if you read that Reuters story very carefully that crossed this morning, it's getting a lot of attention and rightfully so. But the story does not say that anything new has happened here at this summit. What the story appears to my read to be referring to is approvals that the US Government made for sales of these chips back in December and January. Right. So months ago these approvals were made and the Reuters reporters have uncovered new details about what exactly those approvals were. And it appears to me Again, to my read only, it appears that what they're talking about is that those approvals have not made a difference for Nvidia because the Chinese have not made the purchases that have been approved. Why did the Chinese not make those purchases? Well, because they're concerned of a couple things. One is they're concerned about Huawei, their domestic competitor. They want to beef up that company, so they want to steer business to them. They're also concerned about potential U.S. intelligence manipulation of the chips that are sold to the Chinese side for surveillance purposes. So the whole context of that Reuters story is that these approvals happen months ago. They still haven't resulted in sales. Jensen Huang is at this state dinner in order to try to break that logjam and to try to sell some of those Nvidia chips, if he can. If the Chinese announce major purchases, that would be a big deal for Nvidia. But it's my understanding, again, based on the information that I have here, that nothing new has been signed with regard to Nvidia as part of this chip, and I think that's. As part of this trip. And I think that's why Treasury Secretary Bessant told Joe earlier today in their conversation that he hadn't heard about that, that it was news to.

[Joe Kernan]

How do you know that you saw the trans.

[Eamon Javers]

That's my read of what. What, Besson.

[Joe Kernan]

Oh, how do you know what, Besson.

[Eamon Javers]

How do you jump in the gu. It's hard for me to keep track of.

[Joe Kernan]

Told me.

[Eamon Javers]

It's hard for me to keep track of the time zones here, Joe. I can't tell what's past and what's future. Now, you guys, if I'm jumping the gun on your exclusive, which was. Which was great.

[Joe Kernan]

No, he punted. He. And he said that's a. That's a Commerce. That's a Department of Commerce situation. But even the Reuters piece. You're absolutely right. Amen. It's. It. It was more interested or it was more delineating who the 10 firms were. This is what we know. But then it, in an afterthought almost said there's been no deliveries made up to this point. And Jensen Long really wants that to happen and that. That's probably why he hopped on the plane. Yeah. So. Yeah, but you're right.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernan]

We're gonna play it. We're gonna play it right.

[Eamon Javers]

So I just wanted to caution that,

[Joe Kernan]

you know, we got a few things you haven't. Yeah, we got a few things you haven't already. There's a couple of things you haven't already given away that. That are still in that. That we can, you know, hopefully make

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

some hay out of. Yeah, okay, very good.

[Joe Kernan]

Although we should point out, if you were Treasury Secretary Besson, you, you let the President probably announce the biggest things. I wouldn't want to be front running President Trump. And I think Treasury Secretary Bessen was very measured in the things he was able to say. But I did speak with him in the middle of the night here over there is like afternoon or something, and started by asking him to delineate any concrete progress that has come out of his meeting earlier with the Vice Premier and what is likely to come from the President's summit with President Xi.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Here it is, Joe. The Chinese don't like any surprises, which is why President Trump is especially effective with them. But the Vice Premier and I, who have a very good working relationship, I think we've seen each other. This was either our 8th or 9th meeting. Worked on the agenda for today's meeting in terms of the economics, the deliverables. And so we talked about purchases, we talked about some issues that the Chinese side had. And we're going to talk about forming a board of trade for the bilateral trade between the US And China. And we're going to talk about a board of investment that will be responsible for investment in non sensitive areas.

[Joe Kernan]

Mr. Secretary, you know, foreign investment in the US is always a priority for this president. And I'm sure he'd like to announce a commitment that starts with the T word, with the letter T, or trillions of dollars from China to make its way onto our shores. How do we balance such an increase in cooperation with all the ongoing security concerns we have with a country that we know wants to eventually eclipse the United States?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Well, again, Joe, I'm not sure where this trillion dollar investment number has come from. It's somehow gotten out into the ether. And the purpose of this board of investment is to decide up front what are the non strategic, non sensitive areas where it would be possible for the Chinese to invest. I chair something called cfius, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. And what we want to do is make sure that these investments don't get referred to cfius. So this would pregame those investments just to make sure that they're not of a strategic or sensitive area. But look, there are plenty of things that the Chinese could invest in in the US and we're trying to push the same thing in the U.S. president Trump today told Xi Jinping that he wants to open up China and China should Open up. China's domestic economy has been weak. The Chinese consumer needs to that get a larger share of wages or labor needs to get a larger share of the gdp. It all tends to go back into manufacturing now. And China really needs to create a bigger consumer economy. And President Trump and the entire administration have been pushing them to do that.

[Joe Kernan]

So there's a report from Reuters that just came out that the US has cleared around 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia's a second most powerful AI chip, the H200. No deliveries have been made so far, but this is obviously something that CEO Jensen Huang probably would like to see happen. As far as a breakthrough, can you confirm that's true, in which companies would be allowed approved which Chinese firms to buy those chips?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Yeah, Joe, this is news to me. I know there's been a lot of back and forth on the H200s and we'll have to see on that. That's a Commerce Department function.

[Joe Kernan]

Okay. At the same time, there's some competing narratives about the overall environment that we're looking at there. China's export economy continues. Xi apparently wants to show that he will not be bullied. Meanwhile, China's feeling the pinch from a myriad of internal and external pressures that we talk about, whether it's real estate, and I think it's in their best interest to stabilize relations with the US but at the same time, President Trump would probably like to announce some positive news at this point. He's brought all those business leaders. Who is in a stronger bargaining position, in your view? Who needs a deal more, in your view, and has the upper hand Again,

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

the US Is the deficit nation in terms of trade, and I used to teach economic history, and economic history would tell you that the deficit country always has a stronger position because we do have a deficit, and we are China's largest customer. Although President Trump has brought the trade deficit down to. It seems crazy to say only $200 billion is laser focused on getting it into balance. And that's the goal here. And that can be done one of two ways. Either the US Receives fewer imports from China, or we sell more to China, and we're trying to balance that out. What's happened to China over the past year has been President Trump put up the tariff wall and China continued to push out goods into their export market. But the US Much of that market was blocked, and the goods went to the rest of the world, and there was a lot of price pressure on goods. So I don't know if you're familiar with the old Saying, Joe, is we lose a dollar on every item, but we make up for it in volume. So the Chinese have tried to make up for it in volume. They've got a tremendous trade surplus. But if you look at the statistics, the profitability of the Chinese firms is way down. And that is even with massive subsidies from the government.

[Joe Kernan]

We had Steve Daines, the Senator on yesterday, just returned from China after leading a delegation. The secretary, he told us, I hadn't heard this before. The three Bs, Boeing, Beef and beans. Will those all be discussed and what else?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Well, those are big. I think we're going to see the large Boeing orders. Beef was more. They're non tariff trade barriers against our great American ranchers. And then soybeans, we have a very large purchase commitment from the Busan agreement for the next three years. Beans are really all taken care of. Although if I were the Chinese, I'd probably buy more beans now because there's a weather pattern called El Nino that we're probably going to see this year that typically results in very high soybean prices.

[Joe Kernan]

Could there be some breakthrough on tariffs? There's another report that the two presidents may discuss cuts on roughly $30 billion worth of imports. Do you know which sectors are on the table there? Is this a good way to do it? To pick winners and decide which ones we're going to allow in without tariffs and which ones we won't.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

So we're going to form a board of trade and the idea will be for non critical, non strategic areas, things that the US doesn't want to make that we're never going to reshore. So something like fireworks or very low end consumer goods that are going to keep coming from China no matter what. So we can untarer if those. And then there are many things that they want to buy from us. You know there was talk today about the Chinese buying more US energy and the US is exporting a record amount of crude and lng. Now the only binding constraint is our export facilities. We're going to be building more export facilities. We're going to be ramping up in Alaska, which is a natural for China. And given what's going on in the Mid east, we think that, that not only China but countries all around the world are going to look to diversify away from the Middle east for more stable source of energy. And what better place than the U.S. but the idea of starting with 30 billion by 30 billion that both sides can designate again for non critical areas and areas that we're not trying to reshore secular.

[Joe Kernan]

Do you have a sense on whether China will help with the Strait and what China has communicated to us about the Strait of Hormuz? And I mean, that's obviously important to them as well. Do you think they're going to help?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

I think they're going to do what they can. And here China has a much bigger interest in reopening the Strait than the US Does. China gets about a third of its energy needs from the Gulf. So a reopening of the Strait benefits China. Unfortunately, they'd been buying. They were the largest consumer of Iranian oil. They were buying about 90% of it. Iranian oil represented about 10% of their energy that they took in. But the rest of the countries in the Gulf were also substantial contributors, whether it was Saudi, uae, Qatar, and China gets a substantial amount of their LNG from the Gulf. Also, you've talked about. It's where we have.

[Joe Kernan]

I'm sorry, sir. Go ahead.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

No, I was just going to say that China, it's very much in their interest to get the Strait reopened. And I think they will be working with behind the scenes, to the extent anyone has any say over the Iranian leadership. And the real problem here, Joe, is, as you're aware, we didn't change the regime, but the regime changed, changed, and it was several layers of leadership. They were decapitated. And it's very tough there just to communicate anything to anyone who is able to either act or get an overall agreement and speak on behalf of the Iranian leadership.

[Joe Kernan]

You've talked about this a lot, Mr. Secretary, and that is the strain that Iran is under right now. Severe strain with the continuing blockade, hyperinflation, plunging currency, food and water shortages. The Supreme Leader, allegedly, as you said, that we're not sure who we're talking to at time, allegedly has begged companies to stop laying off workers for the good of Iran. Is there a breaking point for a regime whose priorities don't include the welfare of its people?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Sure there is, Joe. And what we're seeing is the loading facility, the main loading facility for Iranian oil is a facility called Carg Island. We've seen that there have been no loadings in the past three days. We believe their storage is full. None of the ships are getting out, none are coming in. So they're not able to store oil on the water. So they're going to start shutting down their. They're going to start shutting down their production. We can see that that's happening from satellite photos. But more importantly, Joe, exactly as you said, this is a diabolical regime. Thus Far this year, they executed 30, 40,000 people, many of them peaceful protesters. And so how do you deal with a regime like that? You squeeze them economically. And we believe we're at the point where soldiers aren't getting paid, they're not able to replenish their weapons stocks from abroad. So, you know, I think that they are on their last legs. And the blockade, President Trump's blockade has been a resounding success.

[Joe Kernan]

At the same time, it's still a blockade on oil. Oil is up at over $100 a barrel today just on West Texas, even higher on Brent. Do you still believe that the surge we've seen in gas prices and inflation in general had some hot numbers? PPI yesterday, CPI earlier, they're hot. Do you view that as something that'll be reversed quickly if the strait is reopened? And I guess I go on to say, do you think the president will accept no rate cuts right off the bat from the new Fed chief, Kevin Warsh.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Well, let's unpack there, Joe. So let's do it one by one. I think in terms of what we're seeing, I think in terms of what, what we're seeing here, we can see that crude, West Texas crude, six, nine months out is substantially lower. The curve is in substantial backwardation. That's when the front month is much higher than the back month. So I believe the crude will come down quickly. We've seen the UAE come out of opec, so the market's going to be very, very well supplied. I think all the other energy producers, having not, not gotten oil out for a long time, are going to pump like crazy. And as I said earlier that the US we're at record production, we're an energy superpower, and we're just going to, we're going to keep pumping. So I think there's the potential for energy, crude, gasoline to come trundling back very quickly, which will mean that the look through to inflation will also come down very quickly. I was never on Team Transient during COVID so a lot of that had to do with what happened with very expansionary fiscal policy that was financed by debt purchases from the central bank. Kind of an experiment in modern monetary theory that caused inflation. But here I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock. And we can look through that because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down. So I think core inflation will continue, continue coming down. We'll get to the other side of this, and I don't know whether it's a few days or a few weeks. And energy inflation will come back down. And we've got the start of the warfed. Kevin was confirmed last night. Only one Democrat, John Fetterman from Pennsylvania voted for him. Just shows the dysfunction of the Democratic Party. He got had a 99 voice vote when he was a governor last time. And I think that he's going to bring an open mind to this and I actually think he's going to be in a very good position because we may get a series 1, 2 more hot inflation numbers. But then I think we're going to see substantial disinflation.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We're going to pause that interview for just a moment because President Trump is beginning to speak in Beijing right now. And let's take that live.

[President Donald Trump]

And for so graciously hosting us on this very historic state visit, we had extremely positive and productive conversations and meetings today with the Chinese delegation earlier. And this evening is another cherished opportunity to discuss among friends some of the things that we discussed today. All good for the United States and for China. And it was a great honor to be with you. Please,

[Joe Kernan]

What would you like the power to do?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Keep getting up.

[Eamon Javers]

There's more fight in you.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

So play on.

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[Narrator/Announcer]

You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC and today's newsmaking interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, traveling as part of President Trump's delegation to China.

[President Donald Trump]

Thank you. Thank you.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Joe Kernan takes things from here.

[Joe Kernan]

There we have that toast. And let's get back to our conversation with Secretary Treasury Secretary Besson. I asked him how he sees the US navigating through the AI revolution.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Well, all three of the leading companies, Anthropic, OpenAI and Google slash Gemini, their large language models are increasing in power very, very quickly. We saw a step function jump with Anthropic Mythos. I think we're going to see a big step function jump with OpenAI's next release. And I think in a few months we're going to see a, a big step function jump with Gemini. And Joe, first of all, the good news is the US Is the undisputed leader in the world here. We have the greatest AI companies. We're actually going to be discussing the AI guardrails with the Chinese because the Chinese are substantially behind us, but they have a very advanced AI industry here. So the two AI superpowers are going to start talking. We're going to set up protocol in terms of how do we go forward with best practices for AI to make sure non state actors don't get a hold of these models. And Joe, what I will tell you is all three of the big players have been very good partners with the US Government because what we don't want to do is stifle innovation. So our responsibility is to come up with the highest performance calculus where we can get the most innovation and the highest level of safety. And we, I am very satisfied that we are well on our way to that. Everything has been voluntary by the companies and they have been very good partners with the US Government and we will

[Joe Kernan]

be open to working with the leading companies. Whether it's Anthropic, will there be eventually some type of resolution to some of the issues, whether to, whether it's Mythos, whether it's supply chain issues with Anthropic, will that be handled? What can you tell us?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Again, I'm not going to speak for the Department of War. I would isolate their issue with Anthropic. Anthropic has been very engaged with the White House, with Treasury, in terms of Mythos and all their new releases. So I think, I think, Joe, the way to think about it here is with these large language models now we had a big step function increase and the US Government has begun consulting with the firms. And again, we don't want to stifle innovation. We're just consulting with them. They've been very good partners. And going forward, I would think that we will be much more on a ramp than a step function in terms of what we see, how the models affect the business community. And we're going to be working with the companies to ensure that Everything where there are vulnerabilities, they get patched. At treasury we've been working with the 11 largest banks and now we're taking that down to the super regionals and they are compiling data for us that we will then start sharing with the small and community banks. So again the process is working very smoothly and I am highly confident that we can have a very good transition into this exciting new technology. And sitting here in China right now it is of the utmost importance that the US maintain our lead in AI. The reason we are able to have fulsome discussions with the Chinese on AI is because we are in the lead. I do not think we would be having the same discussions in if they were this far ahead of us. So we're going to put in us the best practices, US values on this and then roll those out to the world.

[Joe Kernan]

So many times I've and this will be a final question. I know you got to run Mr. Secretary, but you have so many different hats I'm going to ask you. It's kind of a Treasury kind of a secretary of war question I guess. Will Taiwan come up up? Do you know whether President Xi is going to ask President Trump to change the long standing strategic ambiguity or will there be any requests from President Xi to limit arms sales to Taiwan at this point? Do you know it but can you comment on that at all?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

Sure, Joe. It wouldn't be a U S China summit without the Taiwan issue coming up and I'm confident that that President Trump understands the issues around that and is very, very resolute in his answers and I'm sure we'll be hearing more from him in the coming days on that.

[Joe Kernan]

Do you think at this point that the president would, I don't know, give a concession to President Xi and perhaps, I don't know, like I say, change the long standing practice that we've had of. I don't even it's so ambiguous, it's hard to even describe but we're kind of like don't have an opinion on whether Taiwan should be part of the mainland or not. Do you think that'll change again?

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

I'm not going to get out ahead of the president. You'll be hearing more from him either this evening, tomorrow. But again President Trump understands the issues here and understands the sensitivities around all this. And you know, anyone who's been saying otherwise does not understand the negotiating style of Donald Trump.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Great interview, fascinating stuff.

[Joe Kernan]

Trying to figure out so President, he's not going to say something ahead of the president about Taiwan, obviously. But he said the president is sensitive to the, the issues in China of, of, of Taiwan that almost.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, you already had President Xi come out quite publicly.

[Joe Kernan]

Right, Right. I didn't know that at the time.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Right. But since then has effectively warned President Trump that this could, this is what we want.

[Joe Kernan]

It almost sounded like Secretary Bessant was saying the president is aware of the Chinese concerns and sympathetic to the concerns. I mean, that's what people have been been warning the president not to do is acquiesce on how we've handled it because Taiwan could end up being the most important cog or one of the, one of the most important cogs in the AI race and everything else.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What did you make of the trillion dollar part of your conversation?

[Joe Kernan]

Because I don't know whether people bandied it bad in the past. The President has used the T word a lot. I think he said that we're at 15 trillion for investment into the US since, since he took office. Foreign investment. So I hadn't. You've seen the.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

No, it is. But it's interesting because there's been a whole bunch of coverage in the last 24, 48 hours where people have suggested that maybe this is not going to be like some of the deals.

[Joe Kernan]

Treasury Secretary.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And then it felt like the Treasury Secretary was effectively saying, yeah, I don't

[Joe Kernan]

know where that, I don't know where that.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Headlines coming out of this in terms of massive corporate deals. Unless that's. I don't want to front run the President. President. And the president will do it and then surprise everybody.

[Joe Kernan]

Well, that's why I asked. The other question is like, okay, really, we want a trillion dollars worth of Chinese involvement in our economy when we know full well that, that their whole M.O. is to steal IP into.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Well, that's what, that's what's so interesting and complicated about this.

[Joe Kernan]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Situation.

[Joe Kernan]

You want it. But it's the whole.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And then the other thing that didn't seem to come up in at least a meaningful way or hasn't come up yet, is the whole question of Iran with.

[Joe Kernan]

Even though I, when I was asking you raised it.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But I'm saying we don't know, we don't, we don't know what's really happening behind the scenes.

[Joe Kernan]

One of the last things that President Trump did say on the way over when someone asked him about Iran, he goes, oh, I don't even know if that's going to come up.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Right. So I think we all thought that the Iran piece of this even more than, I mean Taiwan apparently has already now emerged as an issue. But I think people thought walking into this, that China has a implicit, if not explicit interest.

[Joe Kernan]

Three ways China could they could continue to supply parts for, for drones if that's been alleged, or at least, you know, being allied with Iran. Or they could do nothing, which is what it sounds like about the Strait. Or maybe they could actually urge Iran to back off on, on the, you know, on closing down the, the oil. They got a lot of stockpiles of oil, but they're going to need it. They're going to run out eventually. I think in China you're going to see more of this, but it gives us a chance. I got up at 11pm so that we can relax on the show and not we don't have to talk.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I appreciate that, Joe. Great job.

[Joe Kernan]

Thank you.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

We should tell the audience you did this interview at what time?

[Joe Kernan]

It was supposed to be at 1:30,

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

1:30 in the morning, a.m. a.m. Eastern Time.

[Joe Kernan]

2:15. 2:15 in Englewood Cliffs.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

In Englewood Cliffs. So thank you on behalf of the viewers.

[Narrator/Announcer]

We'll be right back.

[Eamon Javers]

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant]

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

[Eamon Javers]

I have no fear of failure.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Trailblazing women, changing the game One of

[Eamon Javers]

my favorite pieces of advice, Think about what your boss's boss needs.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin Hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts that's it. Another newsy edition of Squawk Pod. Thanks for listening today or whenever you do. Squawkbox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. We're on TV weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. Or get the best of Squawk Box right into your ears in this podcast. Follow Squawk Pod wherever you like to listen. We will meet you right back here tomorrow.

[Eamon Javers]

We are clear. Thanks guys. Real talent is defined by what people can do, not where they learn to do it. So by stopping at the education section of a resume, you might throw away

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

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[Eamon Javers]

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