Joe Kernen (2:02)

It's Monday, March 2, 2026. Squawkpod begins right now.

Alex Harstrich (2:09)

Stand Becky by in three, two, one.

AT&T Business Wireless Spokesperson (2:12)

Cue it please.

Becky Quick (2:14)

Good morning and welcome to Squawkbox right here on cnbc. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan. Andrew is off today. The US and Israel hitting more targets in Iran following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran and militias that are backed by the country firing missiles at Israel and Arab states. A top Iranian security official warning on X that in his words we will not negotiate with the United States. In a video on Truth Social, President Trump said that the nation grieves for three US Service members who've been killed in action.

Lloyd Blankfein (2:51)

Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends. That's the way it is, likely be more, but we'll do everything possible where that won't be the case. But America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against basically civilization.

Becky Quick (3:12)

Joining us now From Dubai is CNBC's Dan Murphy. Dan, bring us up to speed on where things stand in the region right now.

Dan Murphy (3:19)

Becky, good morning. Well, residents in the Gulf capitals woke up this morning wondering where this conflict will go next after what was an intense weekend of strikes between the U.S. israel and Iran. Right now, regional air defenses are still on high alert. Loud blasts have been heard today in both Dubai and in Abu Dhabi. And you heard there President Donald Trump warning more American casualties are possible in even suggesting this conflict could last up to four weeks, as you mentioned as well, oil prices surging today. Saudi Arabia's Aramco confirming one of its key refineries called Ras Tunura, was hit by an Iranian drone. That facility was shut down due to a fire and there's been no impact on supply. But analysts say it risks escalating this already hot conflict. Of course, the biggest risk right now is in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Red Sea where it's any attack or full shutdown could drive oil prices even higher. Of course, some oil can be diverted through alternative routes, including Saudi Arabia's east west pipeline to the Red Sea. But they can't really fully replace the Hormuz volumes. So that is a great concern for energy traders. And all of this also coming as we see a new front opening up as well. Hezbollah. This is the Iranian proxy in Lebanon and indicating it was attempting to avenge the death of the Ayatollah by striking targets inside Israel. The Israelis have been hitting back today by striking Hezbollah targets inside Lebanon. And of course, members of Congress will also be briefed today. But the end game here, at least from a Gulf capital perspective, seems undefined. President Trump has called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government. But what the end game is is is still unclear here. America's experience, of course, with regime change from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya has been fraught and often unpredictable at best. For now, the region appears to be entering what's been called a new and pretty uncertain phase here with multiple military fronts now open and, of course, the fate of some 90 million Iranians hanging in the balance. Becky?

Becky Quick (5:32)

Dan, I think that's the biggest question. What happens regionally at this point, there are now 11 nations that are involved in this, and nations that thought that they were going to be remaining neutral have been targeted by the Iranians. What do you see as the next step just in how those nations respond?

Dan Murphy (5:49)

It's a great question. And over the last 24 hours, we've seen this wave of Iranian strikes really shaking the Gulf capitals that are probably better known as, you know, Becky, for the, their stability and for their role as safe havens for tourism and commerce and global capital. Here in Dubai, for example, I could hear loud explosions overhead this weekend. I saw projectiles streaking across the sky. We saw air defense systems working to intercept waves and waves, literally hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones across the course of those two days. And of course, that is not something that is anyone who lives in Dubai, let alone the wider UAE or even other Gulf capitals ever expected to see. Authorities also say many of those projectiles were aimed at civilian infrastructure as well. This is brand new territory. We're talking about ports here, airports, even areas close to some of the city's most recognizable landmarks here in Dubai. So the impact on daily life here is already very, very real. And many residents here and also in the other Gulf cities are now working from home or they're sheltering in place. Others also finding themselves stranded still because flights are canceled. We have airspace still closed. And of course, parts of the region's infrastructure also heavily disrupted. So the impact on average everyday lives has been quite profound. And in terms of what is going to happen next? Well, it is ultimately going be going to be determined by what the US President decides and how long this war will run. As I mentioned, the end game here is still largely undefined. At this point, it appears we are on the cusp of regime change in Iran. But what exactly that regime could be replaced by has leaders here on edge.

Becky Quick (7:40)

It's back to you, Dan Murphy. Dan, thank you very much for that update. We hope to talk to you again soon.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (7:45)

Yesterday morning I did have a chance to, to speak with President Trump. Amazing he is open to some phone calls. I guess he was. Obviously a lot was going on, but this is what he said. President Trump says that things are moving along very well, very well, and that everything's ahead of schedule. Said it's a very violent regime, perhaps one of the most violent regimes in history. We're doing our job not just for us, but for the world, and everything is ahead of schedule. As for an off ramp, which people always want to talk about that whether it's too soon or not, he said, as you might imagine, it depends on a lot of variables we will have to see. But things are evolving in a very positive way right now.

Becky Quick (8:37)

Berkshire Hathaway reporting fourth quarter results this weekend. Operating earnings totaled $10.2 billion. That was a 29% decline from the year ago period, due partly to weaker results in Berkshire's insurance business. The company's cash hoard was down slightly to about $373 billion. That's down from $382 billion at the end of the third quarter. The fourth quarter was the company's last with Warren Buffett as its CEO. Greg Abel took the reins earlier this year. In his first annual letter to shareholders, Abel vowed to continue Buffett's culture of financial strength and capital discipline. He wrote, our owner's time horizon extends beyond the tenure of any individual CEO. I will not be your CEO for the next 60 years, as simple arithmetic makes that, shall we say, an ambitious plan. However, 20 years from now, when I will have just a fraction of the tenure that Warren had, my intention is that you or your descendants will be proud that your company is even stronger. Greg Abel, by the way, will join us exclusively live on Squawk Box right here on set Thursday morning. He's coming on set. He's going to sit down with us and he's going to talk all of this through. His letter was great. First one out and there were some people who were thinking, okay, he's going to change things. He's going to shake things up. We're getting dividends, we're going to be getting more share buybacks. He said, no, man, this is keeping things.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:00)

Well, that's exciting that he's going to be here. But I initially heard the headline was he's going to Greg plans on continuing the path that Warren Buffett plans. You're kidding.

Dan Murphy (10:11)

Really?

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:11)

So he wants to continue being like the greatest money manager.

Becky Quick (10:14)

Honestly, there were a lot of analysts who were saying, okay, we're going to get more details. We're going to see him do a share buyback. We'll talk about what they're going to do with that 300.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:23)

He's not going 100% into crypto first thing.

Becky Quick (10:26)

No, this is steady as she goes. Second, first, same as the first. And we're going to get to talk to him all about this on Thursday.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:33)

And how many hours has he spent with Buffett?

Becky Quick (10:39)

Years. Years.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:40)

What? I mean, yeah, he's been, he's got a pretty good idea.

Becky Quick (10:42)

And that was what, what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger always said is that we're not looking for somebody from the outside, somebody that has to be trained in these ways. We are looking for an incredible manager who already knows all of these things. That's what they found in Greg Abel.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:54)

Right. Okay. What time's Thursday?

Becky Quick (10:58)

7:30.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (10:58)

I think it's a good hour. Seven, four people leave.

Lloyd Blankfein (11:02)

Yeah.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (11:07)

Netflix co CEO Ted Sarandos says that Paramount Skydance will have to cut billions of dollars in costs and lay off thousands of people after taking on a large amount of debt to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery. Sarandos making those comments to Bloomberg after his company dropped out of the race to buy assets from Warner. He also said Netflix is, in his words, in the clear in regards to reports that the Justice Department is looking into the company's business practices. I mentioned Ted Sarandos wearing jeans with a, with a tie and a jacket. And apparently this is something that people get away with. Sullivan. Brian Sullivan is here. You do have a jacket.

Brian Sullivan (11:50)

Where's your jacket?

Andrew Ross Sorkin (11:51)

Can I intro you in the way that you should be intro? Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says an Iranian drone hit Aramco's Ras Ternora refinery, which you probably know about, biggest in the world, resulting in a fire that was quickly contained. Oil prices are surging. We're above 70 on the risk of supply disruption right now. The price of crude, as you can see, 72. Brian Sullivan.

Brian Sullivan (12:16)

I'm going to narrow this and simple this down into something that's probably a little too simplistic. But here's the point, folks. Let's bring up a live view from marine traffic by Kipler of the Strait of Hormuz. Okay, you can go online. Marinetraffic.com you could take a look at the red dots filter out the vessels. All those red dots and arrows are liquids, tankers, either natural gas, oil, chemicals, methanol, whatever. You notice the top part? I tried to highlight it in a little green box and it's tough to see. But that upper knob, that is the, that is the straight of Hormuz, 21 miles. And as you can see, there are no red dots or arrows in there. Those are ships, meaning there are no ships going through. Now we hear the term we're going to close the strait. I don't like that term. It's not a canal. There's no gate. You can't lock it. If a ship wants to go through, it can.

Trimfia Advertisement Voice (13:08)

At its peril.

Brian Sullivan (13:09)

At its peril. And right now it's pretty much impossible to get insurance. So if something were to happen, you know you got blown up where they ship the shore missile or, or a mine, whatever it may be. The loss is all on you. That is everything for the price of oil. If we start to see ships go through there, I think the price of oil could actually fall from where it was two days ago.

Becky Quick (13:30)

And by the way, 21 miles and 20% of the world's oil flows through that tiny strait. That's why it's such a key issue. As long as that remains closed, that is going to keep these oil prices elevated. There were some analysts, Brian, who suggested that we could see $100 oil. You don't sound like you believe that.

Brian Sullivan (13:50)

Well, I was pretty clear last night on CBC Asia and on Twitter as well. The people I'm talking to and sort of the old commodity trader hat here, which is that you look at Iran. Iran is not Iraq. It's not Afghanistan, it's not Libya. Okay, I understand the connections. Regime change. You heard that a lot, Joe, this morning. I know our colleague Dan Murphy, who actually was living through bombs falling on where they are in Dubai. Iran is not those countries. I think the people of Iran want to be free, want to. We saw the protests. We saw the mass executions. I spoke with an oil industry executive yesterday. He said it very clearly. You tell me who's running Iran and I'll tell you how this goes. Nobody knows who's running Iran. I know they're talking about this assembly of experts. They get together, they pick the next ayatollah. If it's somebody that's seen as more a little friendly to the west, you're going to see a bid come out of oil. And it's not just oil. 20 to 30% of natural gas goes through that feed or that. That area. And also, Joe, chemical fertilizers. 30% of chemical fertilizers in the world. So watch names like CF Mosaic, those are here. Those are big fertilizer companies based here. Watch the Cheniere's and the Venture Globals on the LNG side and watch the shippers, because the shippers are already raising rates. And if and when we get insurance, and we will, we will get insurance. Just depends on what price they're going to take a higher cut. So watch Gaslog, Scorpio, Frontline and some others.

Becky Quick (15:14)

The insurance is the first problem. The second is captains not wanting to go through because it puts their lives, the lives of their crews at risk, too.

Brian Sullivan (15:22)

Yes.

Becky Quick (15:23)

What would you compare this to what we've seen in the past 2019 or earlier?

Brian Sullivan (15:28)

This is what's fascinating in 2019, Iran or somebody attacked Saudi Arabia.

Becky Quick (15:35)

They blame proxies.

Brian Sullivan (15:36)

They blame proxies, but it's their missiles and whatever we call it, Houthis, whatever. The ad cake area and refinery in Saudi Arabia, Brent crude spiked 14%. Can I blow your mind, Joe? And it's not just my jeans. Here's the thing. We killed the Ayatollah Khomeini and many of his top leaders. The move in oil prices right now is not even a top 25 oil price move. What does that tell you about the level of oil that is in the market right now? But here's the thing. If this goes on that little. Bring up that map please again of the Strait of Hormuz. If we don't see ships, red dots, red arrows going through that part in a day or two, the price of oil is going to trickle up every single day.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (16:24)

What are we doing to make sure that that doesn't happen?

Brian Sullivan (16:28)

Well, we can sweep mines. So in the 1980s, back when you were five years old, Joe, they used to sweep mines because Iran would literally World War II mines, these floating bobbing things. And we've learned to go through and clear those out. There are now ship to shore, shore to ship missiles, those drone ships, effectively a speedboat with a bomb attached to it. The US Navy's gonna have a say in what happens here. US Naval air power will have a say in what happens here. But as we learned in the Red Sea, it can just take a couple of people in a speedboat with an RPG that can severely disrupt traffic. I will. To your point, Becky, I talked to somebody in the insurance business also yesterday who said, remember last year Ukraine and Russia had a three day ceasefire to move grain wheat through the Black Sea. Because they said, okay, listen, both sides need to eat. We don't want people starving. Three days, everybody go and we're not going to blow anything up. There is some chatter. I'm going to report right now. There's some chatter, I talked to insurance executives that perhaps we could see a similar situation where if there is somebody in Iran, it's a big if that could make this decision, say. Cuz Iran needs the money, Joe, more than any other country. They're the ones that need more oil money than anybody else. We're not going to blow anything up. Everybody's ship gets to go in and out. We all sell our oil or gas and everybody's safe.

Becky Quick (17:50)

They launched attacks on Oman which had been the negotiator between the, you know, the neutral negotiator between these characteristics and that left some people saying, wait a second, there's nobody, no way to talk to anybody from Iran, no way to know who's in charge and no mediator who could do that.

Brian Sullivan (18:06)

Yeah, and I heard you talking to Dan Murphy, our colleague in Dubai this morning. What's the strategy here? I mean, why are you going after your fellow Muslim nations now? They're all different, right? Iranians tend to be Persians. We don't want to lump them all together. There are factual and regional differences. Believe me, not everybody's getting along. But the reality is dropping a bomb on a hotel or an airport in Dubai is not going to endear yourself to the region.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (18:31)

I would think that there are people sitting around down. I mean, they're thinking about everything. I would be thinking they would try to do things near the strait to prevent Iran from being able to close the strait.

Brian Sullivan (18:46)

There was a ship yesterday that went through and some turned off our transponders. So you don't know they're going through, but then you can kind of see them just show up on the other side. I watched the ship go through and it hugged the Dubai coastline. I mean, it must have been, if you were swimming, you might have been able to go out and touch it because they were trying to be as far away from Iran as they could. If we start to see ships go through there en masse again, I think the price of oil could fall back.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (19:13)

But they need the money. So you think that's. Did they blow through all that? 6 billion on the pallets from 2000, remember? Oh, yeah, they already spent all that. Don't they have some of that left from Biden? So that's not a real question.

Brian Sullivan (19:27)

No, no, it's a fair. No, I'll answer it. I'll answer it.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (19:30)

I'm over here.

Lloyd Blankfein (19:31)

All right.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (19:31)

I just wanted to bring it up. You don't need to answer.

Brian Sullivan (19:34)

So the UK and EU basically did this. And if you're on the radio, I'm doing like a blind eye thing to Iran for about four of the last five years.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (19:45)

Yeah.

Brian Sullivan (19:46)

Sanctions could have, should have been enforced, but they were not because oil, natural gas, you need money, you need revenue. Okay. And Iran was able to build up, Joe, its foreign currency reserves, quadrupled them off of what they were. That number has come back down again. And I'll tell you there's another very. I'm just going to throw this out as we need a wrap. I'm sure China is the big variable here because 80% of Iran's liquids go to China. Now they're not going to get it. It's not going to hurt us. It's probably going to benefit companies like Cheniere and Venture Global if anything. Because natural gas, LNG oil, any shipper coming from Houston is a lot safer than coming from Qatar or through that little strait that we talked about.

Dan Murphy (20:32)

Right.

Becky Quick (20:32)

China imports something like 10 million barrels a day and I think 4 million of it was coming through the strait.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (20:37)

It's one of the derivative stories that we're going to have to really dive into the whole impact on Taiwan.

Brian Sullivan (20:43)

Rarely, rarely do you know you're living through history.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (20:46)

Yeah.

Brian Sullivan (20:46)

As it's happening real time. And this is it. This is history. It is real time.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (20:51)

This is. There are times I wonder about the whole simulation thing too. The amount of things that happen in our lives. I don't know, maybe things are. You don't believe it. Elon Musk. Elon Musk said we might be.

Brian Sullivan (21:04)

The three of us should get together one afternoon before you guys go to bed and we'll test that. Have a glass of wine.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:10)

All right.

Brian Sullivan (21:11)

Or a decaf coffee or whatever it is, and we'll talk about this.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:14)

All right?

Brian Sullivan (21:14)

Otherwise I gotta go.

Becky Quick (21:15)

Because one afternoon before we go to bed at five.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:18)

Yeah, exactly.

Brian Sullivan (21:20)

You said it.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:20)

That's all I said.

Brian Sullivan (21:21)

I've been there.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:22)

Thank you.

Becky Quick (21:22)

I know it. You do?

Brian Sullivan (21:24)

I got up at 3:30 this morning thinking about you, Joe.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:27)

First thing I thought, do it five days. Do it every day.

Becky Quick (21:29)

He did.

Brian Sullivan (21:30)

I did. Wake up call.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:31)

Oh, that's right, you used to do that.

Brian Sullivan (21:32)

Yeah, used to.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:33)

You're not doing that like Mitch Hedberg said.

Brian Sullivan (21:35)

I used to, but I still do too. Yeah, it's hard. It's hard, right? But you look amazing.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:41)

What's your secret?

Becky Quick (21:44)

Early to bed, early to arise.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:45)

Surgeon. I don't know.

Becky Quick (21:46)

Makes a man healthy, wealthy and wise.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:48)

Propecia Jeans. Jeans.

Brian Sullivan (21:50)

Jeans.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (21:51)

Which you're wearing. Yes. We'll end on that too.

AT&T Business Wireless Spokesperson (21:56)

Tees will be next.

Joe Kernen (21:59)

Coming up on the first AI driven war with veteran and venture capitalist Alex Harstrick.

Alex Harstrich (22:05)

We've seen these types of shifts all throughout human history. Somebody was using bronze, someone else used steel. Somebody was using swords. Someone else was using a gun. Someone else was using a gun. Someone else was using a missile.

Joe Kernen (22:17)

And another headline from the weekend. The Pentagon blacklisting Anthropic. The maker of the Claude Artificial intelligence agent over a dispute about the military's use of Claude. Concerns are brewing.

Alex Harstrich (22:29)

It is easy to comment on the nomenclature difference between Silicon Valley and the military industrial complex.

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Schwab Market Update Host (Keith Lansford) (23:41)

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

AT&T Business Wireless Spokesperson (24:09)

Before we had ATT Business Wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT and T Business Wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though AT and T Business

Alex Harstrich (24:35)

Wireless connecting changes everything.

Joe Kernen (24:42)

Welcome back. This is Squawk Pod from cnbc.

Alex Harstrich (24:47)

Stan Joe Bye three two his mic Q.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (24:52)

You're watching Squawkbox on cnbc. I'm Joe Kernan along with Becky Quick Andrews. Off the day, the U.S. as you know and Israel striking more targets in Iran. Iran and militias backed by the country firing missiles at Israel and across the board at Arab states.

Becky Quick (25:09)

Our next guest says that the Iran conflict is the first new hot war where the White House could use AI driven weapons in real time. Joining us right now is Alex harstrich. He is J2 Ventures founder and managing Partner and he also happens to be a veteran who focuses very closely on defense companies and technology. And Alex, let's talk a little bit about this. We'll get to Anthropic and what it said over the weekend. But first of all, what do you make of the situation right now? How prepared we are. And what you expect to see.

Alex Harstrich (25:40)

Well, Becky, I think your previous guest touched on the issue very well from a geopolitical standpoint. But in your intro you summarized it perfectly. This is the first time that we're going to see an AI driven war, a true hot war. Previously, these were technologies that were used for a bunch of other purposes, logistics, military planning. But for the first time ever, you're going to see active munitions being used that were almost completely designed, deployed and executed by artificial intelligence. I think currently there's still a lot of human in the loop, but the technological enablement is like something we've never seen before.

Becky Quick (26:19)

And how do we prepare for that, first as a nation and then secondarily, you're an investor to boot. How do you think about these things? The idea of drones being able to infiltrate through systems, of them being much cheaper than traditional missiles, and how we prepare ourselves for that, it's really, really

Alex Harstrich (26:38)

hard from a geopolitical standpoint. We just need to accept the fact that artificial intelligence in warfare is an inevitability. We've seen these types of shifts all throughout human history. Somebody was using bronze, someone else used steel, somebody was using swords, someone else was using a gun, someone else was using a gun, someone else was using a missile. And when you think about any sort of decisive action that happened in any type of military conflict, it was usually ended by somebody having such a decisive advantage from a weapons standpoint that fighting no longer made any sense. And so the issue that we have right now, though, is that for the first time ever, those weapons aren't being designed by the military industrial complex itself. They're being designed by Silicon Valley, by developers around the world, by people who are not raised or brought up in this industry, but they've built the technology that best enables this industry. And so while AI is an inevitability, the best AI is not being built by people who want it to be an inevitability in the same context that previous weapons were built. And so that's causing a bit of a clash that we really haven't seen for about a decade between Silicon Valley in the general sense and the military industrial complex. And so though I will be adopted, the best AI is still kind of sitting on the sidelines because of a lot of these moral quandaries about how AI is being developed and deployed, which

Becky Quick (28:07)

sets up the anthropic controversy perfectly. Where you come down on that anthropic said, no, we will not go along with anything and everything. Daria Modi Amodi has since come out and said that the two things that they really would not go along with would be one, mass surveillance of US citizens, the second being AI weaponry that has no human interaction whatsoever. What are your thoughts on this?

Alex Harstrich (28:33)

It's hard to comment on the specifics of the case, Becky, but it is easy to comment on the nomenclature difference between Silicon Valley and the military industrial complex. So when the Pentagon talks. The Pentagon is a command and control culture. The person at the top is at the top. The person below the person at the top does not challenge the person at the top. Vice versa. Everybody has had some experience with the military to understand this cultural dynamic. The way Silicon Valley expresses that same cultural dynamic is through their terms of use, because that's how they recruit their engineers. Their engineers are equally mission driven to those in the Pentagon, albeit they speak in a different way. And so what we're seeing right now is exactly that clash playing out, which is the terms of use that Anthropic approached the Pentagon with originally are being changed. And so just as the Pentagon is having a disagreement with how that terms of use needs to adjust, so too does Anthropic believe the terms of use should not be adjusted. And so the impasse is really difficult, largely because I believe both sides are speaking past each other. In the case of the Pentagon, it was never a stick that helps them incentivize proper military technology. When we think about the best tech that's created in America, everything from GPS, LiDAR, the inputs for computers, computer chips, all of these different pieces were created because the military made an incentive around creating those products and making them in America and then adopting them for fundamentally dual use purposes, you begin to enter into unprecedented and potentially dangerous territory in interaction with Silicon Valley. When you begin to have sticks around working with the military said differently, compelling people who otherwise would not want to work with the military to bring their products forward. I understand where the Pentagon is coming from. China is developing all of these tools internally. Iran is developing these tools internally. Russia is developing these tools internally. If America doesn't compete, America risks potentially catastrophic losses by not having AI enabled weapons. But we need to make sure that we're talking to each other in the way that we want to be spoken to. And I think that we're only just

Becky Quick (30:48)

beginning to see we're out of time. But Sam Altman from OpenAI, which immediately cut a deal with the Pentagon and, and said that they would be. The Pentagon said they'd be using open eyes, AI measurements and tools as a result. Sam Altman said that there's more debate than he thought there would be on this, at least on Twitter, about whether we should prefer a democratically elected government or unelected private companies to have more power. Whose side do you come down on, Sam Altman's or Daria Modi's?

Alex Harstrich (31:19)

Ultimately, America is governed by laws. Those laws are created and governed by those at the consent of the governed. This is why we have a republic. Technology is amazing. I absolutely love it. But we do need to put all of our decision making into lawmakers and into those who are democratically elected. Technology should never supersede those in power.

Becky Quick (31:44)

So you think the Defense Department was right to say you're going to go along with us or else should Anthropic be put on a supply chain risk list?

Alex Harstrich (31:56)

The actual legality, Becky, is really tough. But what I would say is both sides are talking past each other and it's disappointing that there isn't more of a conversation between the two and how best resolve this issue because we need the best and brightest on how we think about the future of artificial intelligence and nobody getting out of that conversation.

Becky Quick (32:15)

Alex Harstrick Alex, thank you for joining us this morning.

Joe Kernen (32:20)

Squawk pod. We'll be right back with former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein looking back on his unique Wall street life.

Lloyd Blankfein (32:28)

Usually I have to respond to people here. I could write something down, go back and make it better and change it. I never I'm going to go become a screenwriter now. I didn't realize you could do that sort of thing.

Joe Kernen (32:38)

Stay with us.

Schwab Market Update Host (Keith Lansford) (32:45)

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Joe Kernen (34:01)

You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC on this newsy Monday with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick. Here's Joe.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (34:10)

We have a true genius. I've known you for a long time, Lloyd Blank. Find us here. You're so fast, so quick witted, such a worldly guy. You got a book out.

Lloyd Blankfein (34:20)

Let's stop right there.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (34:21)

Yeah, we got a book out there. And you're so funny. But just so I think wit and intelligence are correlated. I've learned that over the years. But streetwise getting to and through Goldman Sachs, Jack Welch was getting ready to come on on September 11th and talk about his book. Sometimes things happen which preempt what you're here to talk about. We're going to get to the book as quickly because I want to hear and especially when I realized that you call it really catharsis because you're trying to explain to your kids why you were away so much but doing great things. But just what, how do you stand on what's transpired since Friday night?

Lloyd Blankfein (35:01)

You know, a couple of things. You know, the guys with the guns win, which you know, very logical in history that bears it out. But let's take a specific example from the past. How about when the Ayatollah came back, the Shah's troops all had the guns and they were loyal, loyal, loyal until guess what? They decided they weren't going to fire on their own countrymen for whom they developed certain kind of sympathy as that regime was falling. So it's not unprecedented and it's not unprecedented even with respect to Iran. So just note that it's so the

Andrew Ross Sorkin (35:34)

converse could happen where the revolutionary types

Brian Sullivan (35:37)

of

Andrew Ross Sorkin (35:39)

fire on the pre. Revolution.

Lloyd Blankfein (35:41)

Well, that's happened before. Exactly. And so, you know, I would, you know, I would say, you know, I'd be always prepared for the worst in the risk management business. And one has to do that. But I would say every once in a while things can work out. And maybe this, maybe this will also

Andrew Ross Sorkin (35:58)

work out when you heard about it on Saturday or whenever you heard about it. Did you say lfg?

Lloyd Blankfein (36:04)

I'm thinking, I don't know. What's lfg?

Becky Quick (36:06)

Don't ask. Were you thinking, were you in favor

Andrew Ross Sorkin (36:08)

of thinking let's go, let go?

Lloyd Blankfein (36:11)

You know, here's what I was thinking of and I made you Know, I just made an analogy in my head. The biggest. After Iran, the biggest troublemaker in the world is North Korea. Not much we could do about that today because they have nuclear weapons. And you think, who let that opportunity go by where we could have gone in and intervened and eliminated them as a threat, by the way, they still might be the scourge of the world. I mean, we haven't heard from them in a while, but they will be back. They haven't left and they'll be back. And I'm thinking, don't we wish we had intervened in that when we still had time? And now people are saying, well, it wasn't proximate yet. We weren't close enough with Iran. It wasn't. But you know something? My algorithm is. How close is it? But also, what's the opportunity set and will it ever be repeated? So we have a moment in time. No air defenses. You know, the civilian. The civil population is up, the country and the economy is in disarray. You know, the combination of opportunity and proximity to the bad outcome. I'm not regretting that this happened.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:17)

All right, so you thought you've heard of lng.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:20)

Yes.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:20)

But you had.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:21)

That's what I thought. That's what I thought.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:23)

You thought I was talking about. I don't believe you.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:25)

I know how.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:26)

I know how traders like you, former traders, talk.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:29)

You speak in typos.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:30)

Bow mouth.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:31)

Yes, exactly.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:32)

Investment bank.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:32)

Yeah. I was like one of those guys.

Brian Sullivan (37:34)

Yeah.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:34)

You would tell. Let's do delve into. I want to read it. Because as I said, knowing what I know about you, it must be hilarious reading through it. But also heartfelt.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:44)

Well, I think it's funny, you know, the first time in my life, usually I have to respond to people. Here I could write something down, go back and make it better and change it. I'm going to go become a screenwriter now. I didn't realize you could do that sort of thing.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:57)

You can.

Lloyd Blankfein (37:57)

Yeah.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (37:58)

What was the thrust, though? Is it telling how you did it? I mean, you grew up with absolutely nothing. I know that for. What'd your dad do?

Lloyd Blankfein (38:05)

He was like mail sorter in the post office. Yes.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (38:09)

And, you know, now you're a fat cat and you got to listen to Elizabeth Warren.

Lloyd Blankfein (38:12)

But you're right. Tell me what a fat cat I am.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (38:15)

Yeah, exactly. But it was. You ended up at Harvard, didn't you?

Lloyd Blankfein (38:19)

Look, there's a lot of. It's memoir ish. So there's a lot of, you know, light up biographical stuff, you know, with perspective going from the projects in East New York, public housing in East New York to Harvard and getting tortured a little bit while there. Of course only having good memories about it now, but not necessarily while I was living it. False start in a law firm. But a lot of it is getting to and through Goldman Sachs, which is the subtitle, you know, heroes of mine who didn't always act in a great way because they're human, but they still remain heroes. A lot of it is the financial history of the period, you know, for crying out loud, we had the financial, you know, we had the crisis of the century about every four and a half years during my tenure. And very often. And nothing can go wrong in the world without Goldman Sachs being a affected by it. Given the size and scale of our balance sheet and our influence. And of course they would accuse us of, you know, of starting. Most of the time they'd accuse us of starting it. So there's that perspective on things. And so again it's the mystique of Goldman Sachs going through it behind the scenes. A lot of financial history, a lot of focus on the financial crisis and how people, you know, how people behave and how an organization which I think still has a spectacular culture. Look at the people that Goldman Sachs attracts, recruited, look at what they do with their subsequent careers. People performed really terrifically in the lead up, which is why we weren't that affected commercially. We were quite affected reputationally and you know, largely because, you know, we did okay in the crisis and you know, the aftermath. So a lot of it is, I hate to say, you know, people have pointed it out and I'm not embarrassed to say it. It's a bit of an ode to my old firm and what it has accomplished and really how it happens. How does that secret sauce get created and maintained?

Becky Quick (40:16)

What is the answer to that question?

Lloyd Blankfein (40:18)

Well, I would say it's a kind of, it's always been a partnership culture, an ownership culture. We have people, people in the firm. Their compensation comes from the success of the whole firm. People are taught to have big ears. People are treated like owners. Which means there's. Look, there's a big difference between being a senior partner and a CEO. I was kind of, even as a CEO, I was kind of a senior partner. Which means engaging, listening, socializing changes, having to go a little bit slower, having to change your mind, which not a lot, you know, which nobody really likes. Well, sometimes it changed my mind and I wanted to change my mind in response to what I've been told. But creating an expectation that People are owed, information are owed. Influence in the country creates kind of an ownership. And so people in the firm have big ears. There are people who are bond traders in Japan whose reputations and what they do for a living is affected by what happens to investment bankers in New York. And they feel ownership of it. They get mad as heck if something goes wrong and they go out and send congratulations if everything goes right. And even in a large firm that has grown over the years in population also in footprint around the world, that's not. That's not. You know, 26 years after being a. Becoming a public company, the firm still thinks of itself as a partnership. Senior people are call partners. You know, that process of going public happened with my predecessor. Hank continued with me. You know, when Hank was there, the firm, even as a public company was dominated by Goldman Sachs partners, who were the owners. Continued into my world where it was sort of. And, you know, the transition towards a public company has continued under David Solomon. What does that mean? It means more emphasis on smoother earnings, let's say, which is what the new owners of the company want, namely the shareholders. And he's accomplished that. And I think that's a good thing. I was sort of in the middle of that, which was, you know, still had a lot of stuff on balance sheet, still had a high tolerance for volatility. In a private partnership, you care about your capital account, you don't care about the smoothness of earnings or price earnings. And I think that that has continued to this day. The big achievement, I think, that has occurred is that becoming a public company, a real public company with all the things that shareholders want to see in the management and still maintaining that partnership ethic. And I talk a lot about how that's done. And the way it's done is you do things you might not want to do, you take time you might not

Dan Murphy (42:58)

have,

Lloyd Blankfein (43:00)

but you walk the walk, not just talk the talk.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:03)

When did David take over for you?

Lloyd Blankfein (43:05)

About at the end of 2018.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:08)

You sent him a nice Christmas gift every year.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:11)

Yeah, and I also vote with management every year.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:15)

I mean, I don't know, there was some, I guess a little bit of rockiness in his tenure, but now, I mean, Jesus, you got a lot of stock left.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:23)

I still. Yeah, I do.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:25)

It's worth a lot. It's worth a lot more.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:27)

Oh, I'll have to go check.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:30)

Can we. You talked and everybody. I'll never forget your quote from the financial crisis that. Calm down, wuss. You're not in a. In a boat over storming the shores.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:43)

Yeah. You're not getting out of a Higgins boat.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:46)

You're going into the New York Fed to have.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:48)

You're getting out of a Mercedes and a New York Fed to go.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:51)

Right.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:51)

Get a grip.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (43:52)

Could be worse, but is there. And by the way, it got worse, but not quite.

Lloyd Blankfein (43:58)

But the bullets were figurative, not literal.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (44:01)

Exactly. And when I, When I said lfg, I. I'm not doing squat. I'm just. I admire our guys so much. I don't think. I really don't think I could be. Could have been one of those guys, I mean, that actually do walk, you

Lloyd Blankfein (44:16)

know, it turns out. It turns out that you don't know till you know.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (44:20)

Maybe you don't know till you know.

Lloyd Blankfein (44:21)

I think. I'm not talking about the.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (44:22)

I've asked. What if you cry in basic training, like with the Marines, you go home if you.

Lloyd Blankfein (44:27)

I go through this and I'm not talking about physical courage, which is, of course, a different order of magnitude and a deep respect. And I realize the times that we're in, but even the courage that people showed in the financial crisis, and I'm not conflating the two or equilibrating the two, but I would say there were people who are spectacular guys, athletes, Olympians and blah, blah, blah. And, you know, and, you know, when it hit the fan, there was some hyperventilation in the corner. And there were some people who didn't look like they could walk up a whole flight of stairs who were just magnificent.

Becky Quick (45:01)

What happened to the people who didn't pass that test?

Lloyd Blankfein (45:04)

Well, they kind of flaked off. They did. And also they lost a lot of prestige a lot of time during these things. I pointed out to people that your reputations are going to be made during this period of high pressure. So act well, not just because it's in your economic interests or because I'm requiring it. Act well, because the people around you, and look at the people who leave Goldman Sachs, all the cabinet officers, all the prime ministers and everything that even you guys who are young in the firm, your reputations with each other, even the dopey guy sitting next to you, roll the clock forward 25 years, and these are going to be the most influential people in the world. Whether they stay at Goldman or go somewhere else, go into government or just another firm or create a private equity shop, whatever, these are going to be the most influential people. And their impression of you is going to be fixed based upon how you act today. So guess what? Act well.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (45:58)

Are we going to need the Same type of people anytime in the near future to face the same type of things. In other words, how do you feel about the market right now? AI private credit kind of a bit

Lloyd Blankfein (46:10)

fragile before all this started and so we're coming into it. I think this macro kind of event will, you know, look, things can go off the rail. A lot of stuff could go wrong and get worse. You know, oil could become a bigger deal, longer straits, close. You know my base case is that this will sort out on a macro basis and then we'll have to deal with some of the stuff. You know, there's always anxiety. We look for, you know, wall of worry. I'm basically very, very positive.

Brian Sullivan (46:35)

You are?

Lloyd Blankfein (46:35)

Oh, on the market, sure. But the one thing that you have to realize is you need a kind of a cleaning out. It's like the Godfather, you have to have a war every 10 years to clean out the grudges. I think in markets there hasn't been a problem or a reckoning in a long time. So you know, people had to have lost discipline since the last time that there was one of these things. Usually it happens every five or six years. It hasn't happened for more than 15 years. And so you think about the lack of discipline, money going in the wrong place. No one's had to really mark to market stuff. Look, we've just had one of the best. We're near, it's still near the highs of the equity market. It's been the best financing market and inventory is still of illiquids are still building up on balance sheets and supposedly can't be so at some point they'll have to be a force reckoning. Hopefully it won't happen. Hopefully it won't happen later this afternoon or tomorrow but that's a real cause of worry. But having said that, it seems like a lot of tailwinds. The economy is doing well. Inflation is kind of tamer and tame. We're probably we're going to lower rates into a pretty good gdp. I realize that there's a lot of polarization because the economy isn't doing a very good. It's doing a good job creating wealth, not necessarily allocating that wealth according to the values. And so you're getting a polarization, polarized society and that's bad. But overall a lot of, you know, a lot of tailwinds and a lot of, you know, we're just about to come up to more fiscal stimulus and by the way fiscal stimulus coming from hyperscalers who are going to, you know, who are Investing hundreds of billions of dollars, which is also kind of going to be a stimulus to the market.

Becky Quick (48:18)

What do you. What do you do with your own money? You're a risk manager. You think of these things from all these perspectives. Do you position your own? I do worry that this is long in the tooth.

Lloyd Blankfein (48:28)

That's a good way of doing it. You should always ask people, what do you think? And then following up with, what are you doing? Because people sometimes say, not because they're lying, but because they get confused themselves, because I'm a worrier. And so if you ask me what do I think, I'll give you all my worries. But if you ask me what I'm doing, I'm all in equities. I'm in risky assets. And of course, very, very responsive. If I hear a twig crackle in the background, I jump five feet into the air and I want to do something. And I think that that's a way to be positioned. It seems to me we're overdue for something. I'm not sure the direction, but inevitably it will come. But I don't see it happening tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. Next week is another thing.

Becky Quick (49:11)

What about the Federal Reserve with the changes that have taken place there? Is this something you pay much attention

Lloyd Blankfein (49:17)

to in terms of what they're doing or the assault on the Federal Reserve?

Becky Quick (49:20)

The assault on the Federal Reserve, what comes next?

Lloyd Blankfein (49:22)

I think it's crazy. I think the Federal Reserve is. Look, we're a debtor nation. We need creditors to lend us money all the time. US can't default by not paying. We'll never default specifically because we print dollars. We can always return all the dollars we printed. The question for our creditors is, what is that dollar going to be worth? And if they think that the dollar is going to be inflated or diminished in terms of its purchasing power, they'll either require a much higher interest rate or they won't lend to us at all. The guardian of the integrity of the dollar is the Fed. And so if I'm a creditor, I want a Fed that's independent high integrity that honors its mandate to not allow the currency to be inflated, that is to default through inflation. And so to undermine the importance of the Fed is sending the wrong message to our creditors. So I would, you know, I wouldn't. I wouldn't be doing that. And that's crazy for the people who are managing our debt to be. To be undermining the importance and the influence of the Federal Reserve on policy. Because the creditors look to the Fed as the guardian of their interests.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (50:32)

One of your predecessors, John Whitehead, was at no, Normandy. Not only was he at Normandy, he was one of the first people to get there to organize things. So he had no cover. So you come from good stocks.

Lloyd Blankfein (50:44)

He was a junior officer on one of the landing craft. And when I, when I sent that, when I made that comment, you were thinking about him? No, I was thinking about him. He sent me, you know, a very nice note. That was a terrific. You know when you talk to your, you know when you talk to people and you know, you know what they lived through.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (51:02)

Yep. You know, that informed your, the way you are, which I appreciate. Well, thank you. And thank you. I'd like to talk more about this. And you're always welcome. You know that.

Lloyd Blankfein (51:11)

Is that right?

Andrew Ross Sorkin (51:12)

Always.

Lloyd Blankfein (51:12)

Fantastic.

Andrew Ross Sorkin (51:13)

All right.

Lloyd Blankfein (51:14)

Thank you.

Joe Kernen (51:17)

And that is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for listening. Thanks for starting your week with us. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Please tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Follow Squawkpod wherever you get your podcasts and listen anytime you want. Have a great Monday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

AT&T Business Wireless Spokesperson (51:46)

We are clear.

Alex Harstrich (51:48)

Thanks, guys.

Dan Murphy (51:53)

Foreign.

Schwab Market Update Host (Keith Lansford) (51:58)

Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the trade desk. Our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy. Gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help. And access support by phone, email and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading.