Talks with Iran, a Call with the President, & Energy Prices 3/23/26

Summary

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Squawk Pod: Talks with Iran, a Call with the President, & Energy Prices

Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Key Guests: Mohamed El Erian (Allianz), Richard Goldberg (former Trump NSC official), Dan Murphy (CNBC Reporter, Dubai)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into a frenetic morning of breaking news around sudden diplomatic movements between the United States and Iran, dramatic market swings—especially in energy prices—and direct communication between President Trump and the CNBC Squawk Box team. As global markets whipsawed on rumors, social media posts, and official statements, the hosts provided real-time analysis in conversation with economic and geopolitical experts. The focus was on interpreting the implications of U.S.-Iran talks, assessing the credibility of claims from both sides, and making sense of the risk recalibration in oil, metals, and equities.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Energy Price Volatility and Market Shock

• Opening State of Play [03:11–04:26]:

  • Oil prices were soaring as the show began:
    • WTI at $98+, Brent up 1% to $113.31.
    • Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for Brent to $110 (from $98) in response to escalating Middle East tensions.
    • Precious metals were falling sharply.

• Truth Social Post Impact [04:26–06:15]:

  • President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants were postponed for five days due to "productive conversations".
  • Market Response: Oil cratered instantly, with WTI dropping 12.7%, Brent falling from $113 to $97.
  • Equities soared: “Dow futures...are up by 935” – Andrew Ross Sorkin [05:29]
  • Treasury yields dropped sharply; safe-haven flows reversed.

  Quote – Andrew Ross Sorkin [05:45]:

  "That's a decline of 12.7% for WTI which is all of a sudden back at 85.75. It had been trading at $98 plus this morning."

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2. Diplomatic Signals & Uncertainty

• Direct Presidential Communication [04:35, 17:31]:

  • Joe Kernen discusses first the Truth Social announcement, then his own direct conversation with President Trump.
  • Trump described “very good and productive conversations” with Iran and expressed hope for substantive progress within five days.

  Quote – Joe Kernen [17:31]:

  "I just spoke to the president. President Trump said the discussions had been very good over the last 48 hours, very intense discussions...They have representatives. Obviously, that's been one of the things that Iran has tried to say, that we've got a structure more than anyone person."

• Iran’s Dispute of U.S. Claims [35:08]:

  • Iranian Fars News Agency told Reuters that there were “no direct or indirect talks with the US,” contradicting Trump's statements.
  • Markets responded to these contradictions in real time, adding confusion.

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3. Expert Reactions and Geopolitical Analysis

Mohamed El-Erian (Allianz Chief Economic Adviser) [07:00–14:03]

• Called the post “an important turnaround,” noting investors previously sought only “flight to cash.”

• Warned of lingering uncertainty, particularly over Israeli buy-in (“there are three warring parties”).

• Emphasized that “the objectives of the three are not aligned” – reaching a shared off-ramp is historically tough.

• “Who are we talking to on the Iranian side?”—alluding to disrupted Iranian command and “field commanders” possibly having autonomy.

  Quote – Mohamed El Erian [07:00]:

  "It's an important turnaround, Joe, because we were seeing flight to cash as the only safe haven and that was contracting markets in a significant manner. The big question for me right now is...can you get Israel to buy in as well?"

  Quote – Mohamed El Erian [08:33]:

  "Political scientists have had enormous difficulty defining an off-ramp that can attract two, let alone three parties to this war...the objectives of the three are not aligned."

• Outlined the enduring economic damage: Qatar lost 17% of LNG capacity for years, GCC investment flows may dwindle as governments need to rebuild at home [11:47].

Richard Goldberg (Former Trump NSC Official) [14:23, 19:43–26:25]

• Warned the U.S./Israel coalition had “potentially another three weeks” of targets in Iran—suggesting risk of premature pullback.

  • “Halfway means another three weeks potentially of targets to go through.” [14:35]

• Raised doubts over whether the “regime change” Trump described is substantive or simply different faces in power.

• Cautioned that unless all military objectives—especially regarding nuclear capacity—are achieved, any deal could leave Iran emboldened.

• Highlighted “market management” aspects, suggesting strategic communication may drive both market and military timing.

• Skeptical Iran’s demands (guarantees against future strikes, control of Strait of Hormuz) are remotely possible for U.S./Israel to accept [22:30–23:24].

  Quote – Richard Goldberg [23:24]:

  "...have you achieved an end state where Iran does not think, the rump regime does not think that they've won, that they have used their terror, extortion to be able to control global energy markets...If that's the perception on the regime side, ...that's not good long-term stability for the Strait of Hormuz and for our economy, our national security."

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4. Analysis from the Ground: Dan Murphy in Dubai [27:30–35:08]

• Emphasized that this is a postponement, not a ceasefire: “perhaps too soon to use that word.” [27:30]

• Noted the Friday deadline as a new key marker—failure to reach a settlement could launch new volatility.

• Questioned the credibility/sustainability of the talks given uncertainty over “who exactly the White House is dealing with” in Iran.

  • Civilian Iranian government seen as ineffective negotiators, IRGC acting independently; new Supreme Leader has not been seen.

• Gulf states are “furious” with Iran but current crisis has “brought the Gulf states closer together and ultimately will bring them closer to the White House.” [34:09]

  • Iran’s strategy of threatening energy/security infrastructure is “backfiring.”

  Quote – Dan Murphy [27:30]:

  "It is important to note that this is a postponement, not necessarily a ceasefire..."

  Quote – Dan Murphy [34:09]:

  "Senior Emirati officials have told me...Tehran's strategy has failed here because this has brought the Gulf states closer together and ultimately will bring them closer to the White House."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote / Moment | |-----------|--------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:35 | Joe Kernen | "I am pleased to report...productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution..." | | 05:45 | Andrew Ross Sorkin | "That's a decline of 12.7% for WTI which is all of a sudden back at 85.75..." | | 07:00 | Mohamed El Erian | "It's an important turnaround, Joe, because we were seeing flight to cash as the only safe haven..." | | 17:31 | Joe Kernen | "I just spoke to the president. President Trump said the discussions had been very good..." | | 23:24 | Richard Goldberg | "...have you achieved an end state where Iran does not think...they have won..." | | 27:30 | Dan Murphy | "It is important to note that this is a postponement, not necessarily a ceasefire..." | | 34:09 | Dan Murphy | "...Tehran's strategy has failed here because this has brought the Gulf states closer together..." |

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Timeline of Major Segments & Insights

| Time | Segment | Details | |----------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:04 | Episode Theme Introduction | Set up: Iranian war, Truth Social post, effect on energy markets, Trump phone call | | 03:11 | Energy Market Status | Energy prices spike pre-news | | 04:26 | Trump’s Truth Social Post | President claims diplomatic progress, postpones strikes, futures and oil crash | | 05:45 | Market Reaction | Sharp reversal in oil and equities due to the post | | 07:00 | Mohamed El Erian Analysis | Discusses market turnaround and the diplomatic/strategic complexities | | 11:47 | Economic Damage Assessment | Long-term disruptions to oil/gas infrastructure, GCC investment, etc. | | 14:23 | Goldberg on Military Strategy | Skepticism about depth of regime change, why five-day delay may be strategic rather than final | | 17:31 | Direct Trump Call | Joe Kernen shares details from his conversation with Trump | | 19:43 | Goldberg on Red Lines & End States | Importance of truly neutralizing Iran's threat before any deal | | 27:30 | Dan Murphy, Dubai – Ground Report | Explained five-day postponement vs. ceasefire, questioned Iranian chain of command, Gulf states’ reactions | | 35:08 | Iran’s Contradiction | Fars News Agency denies any talks, renews threat posture |

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Thematic Takeaways

• Information Asymmetry & Uncertainty: Market reactions highlight how reliant global finance is on rapidly shifting narratives with imperfect or contradictory information.
• Diplomatic Dance: U.S. strategy appears to mix military pressure with public signaling to manage both adversary behavior and market expectations.
• Regime Change Ambiguity: Who counts as “the regime” in Iran is up for debate; whatever changes underway are occurring under immense external and internal pressure.
• Energy Security Front and Center: The Strait of Hormuz, control of energy resources, and the potential for further escalation or de-escalation continue to drive not just energy prices, but also broader economic sentiment.
• Gulf States Unity: Iran’s threats may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.–Gulf alignment.

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Final Notes

• Immediate Uncertainty: The five-day window suggested by Trump (to Friday) is now a global countdown—if no deal, volatility likely returns.
• Who’s in Charge in Iran?: Credibility of negotiations is questioned by both CNBC experts and the reporting from Dubai, as Iran’s power structure remains opaque in the wake of leadership targeting.
• Watch the Next Headline: As Joe Kernen said, trying to forecast markets under these conditions is “impossible...depends on what happens on the ground between the United States and Iran” [11:11].

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This episode underscores the speed and interconnectedness of geopolitics, markets, and modern media—with every statement, denial, and tweet swinging fortunes and raising new questions within minutes.

Transcript

[Dr. Guy Winch]

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[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

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[Joe Kernan]

Bring in show music please.

[Becky Quick]

This is Squawk Pod and I'm CNBC producer Cameron Costa. On today's episode, Developments on the war in Iran. A Truth Social post turned energy prices around and around this morning. President Trump writing that strikes against Iran's power plants are postponed in light of productive conversations with Iran.

[Joe Kernan]

The futures are spiking. On that Truth Social post from the

[Becky Quick]

President then direct from President Trump to our own Joe Kernan.

[Joe Kernan]

You heard some of it on the speaker?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I did.

[Becky Quick]

The President's comments on his talks with Iran.

[Joe Kernan]

Great meetings, great conversations and hopes that within the next five days something very substantive can be arrived at for the end of hostilities.

[Becky Quick]

Then Iran's news agency telling Reuters, citing a source, that there are no talks with the US A market take from Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El Erian.

[Mohamed El Erian]

The next five days are going to be critical in seeing whether you could hold the thing together pending these behind closed door negotiations that we've just learned

[Becky Quick]

about and the military operations at play with forces. Former national security official in the Trump administration Richard Goldberg. He offers one of many ways to interpret this morning's news.

[Richard Goldberg]

This is a way to continue to buy more time, knowing he has 1, 2, 3 weeks of targets remaining.

[Becky Quick]

Plus analysis from CNBC's Dan Murphy Live in Dubai.

[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

Senior Emirati officials have told me in the last few days as well that ultimately Tehran's strategy has failed here because this has brought the Gulf states closer together and and ultimately will bring them closer to the White House.

[Becky Quick]

It was a busy news morning and we are bringing you the story as it unfolded on our airwaves. It's March 23, 2026.

[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

The market certainly remaining on a knife edge here.

[Becky Quick]

And squawk pod begins right now.

[Mohamed El Erian]

Stand Becky by in 3, 2, 1.

[Show Producer Cameron Costa]

Cue please.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Good morning everybody. Welcome to Squawk box right here on cnbc. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times squ. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan. Andrew is off today. If you check out energy prices this morning, WTI is at 98, 98. It's up about three quarters of a percent this morning. Brent is the one that everyone's watching though. It's up 1% this morning to $113.31. Last week WTI was actually down slightly. Over the course of the week, Brent was up significantly and continues to climb. Goldman Sachs raising its oil price forecast this morning. It says it expects Brent crude to average $110 a barrel this month and next month. That is up from a previous $98 forecast. It sees WTI averaging $98 a barrel this month and $105 a barrel next month. This is all bleeding over into precious metals. Trying to figure out what happens with some of these things. Last week gold was down by almost 10%. This morning it's down another almost 6,7% to $4,255 an ounce. Silver is down by about 8 and a half percent this morning. Platinum off by 10% today alone and palladium down by 5 and a quarter percent.

[Becky Quick]

About an hour after our show started with those energy prices, the president made a market moving post on Truth Social. Here's Joe getting that news.

[Joe Kernan]

I'm going to read this from the President. Truth Social. I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations which will continue WITCA which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for attention to this matter. President DONALD J. Trump, Obviously the market's

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

reacting with some relief over that. We've been looking at the potential look at the other markets and then other strikes coming on. The Dow futures, if you're listening on the radio, are up by 935.

[Joe Kernan]

Let's look at the other markets.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Nasdaq futures up by 460s and P oils up by 140.

[Joe Kernan]

We see oil.

[Richard Goldberg]

Wow.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

That's a decline of 12.7% for WTI which is all of a sudden back at 8575. It had been trading at $98 plus this morning.

[Joe Kernan]

Looking at the other markets down by

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

13 1/2% to $97. It had been at $113 before we saw this. Natural gas is off by 2 1/3%. R Bob gas down by 7.8%.

[Joe Kernan]

How about gold price rates?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Take a look at and the treasury yields. Love to see it on the screens

[Joe Kernan]

here, but I've been ready with all these.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah, obviously this is some huge news. We're still running the ticker at the bottom of the screen. That 10 year is at highest levels since last July. That's no longer the case because it's down to 433. The two year is sitting at 382. So you are seeing a collapse in yields here just as you're seeing a sharp increase, a spike in the equities and a big, big drop oil and energy prices.

[Joe Kernan]

Cue the taco scuttle from the left and from Democrats because that's. I don't know how long it will take us to see that because they're not happy when the war is going on. They won't be happy when it's over. Let's get to Mohamed El Erian. What are your thoughts, Mohammed? We saw we were down 250 on the Dow futures were now up 1000 points, 1200.

[Mohamed El Erian]

It's an important turnaround, Joel, because we were seeing flight to cash as the only safe haven and that was contracting markets in a significant manner. The big question for me right now is not only do these talks continue constructively, but can you get Israel to buy in as well? Because there are three warring parties in this war. So there's a lot of uncertainty still, but it's much better for markets than what it looked like just 10 minutes ago.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Hey, Mohamed. The idea that Israel would move against the United States at this point, I think they've been surprised and thrilled that the United States has moved in lockstep to support their goals to this point. I would have a hard time imagining that Israel would do something that the United States is saying they don't want to do anymore. But I will say the complexities here, what Iran had been floating that it wanted are going to be very hard to deliver. They said things like they want the Strait of Hormuz to now operate very differently in the future that they would like to see. Everyone have to kind of buy into getting approval from Iran to go through, which I know the Gulf states are not going to go along with. And they want to be assured that they will not have any strikes that come against them in the future. And I think that's a nearly impossible admission for either the United States or Israel. So I guess the details, as always, will, will be what decides this. But the market is very quickly reading that this is a huge step down in the escalation that we'd seen to this point.

[Mohamed El Erian]

It is, especially if you stop the military attacks as suggested in the President's too social. You know, political scientists have had enormous difficulty defining an off ramp that can attract two, let alone three parties to this war. So, so that's the complexity of it is that the objectives of the three are not aligned if the US can force objectives, because right now the US Is the only one that can declare victory. The other two cannot declare victory. So if the US can impose its will on the other two, then we have an interruption into something that went from simply disruptions to structural damage that takes years to fix. And as we got to structural damage, we started seeing tipping points in economic and finance.

[Joe Kernan]

It's pretty amazing, Mohamed, because earlier, first thing I saw on market watch was investors need to know that they're counting on the taco trade. It's not going to work this time. And this is exactly, I mean, anyone short this market at this point now can, can feel what a true squeeze is. What's weird about the text and the President's true social comments, Mohammed, every once in a while we heard the President say, yeah, Iran wants to make a deal. But we, but then on the other hand, we'd hear him say, there's no one left to talk to. They're all dead. So there couldn't be talks occurring. This was happening for the last 48 hours. Very good and productive conversations. With whom and what do you think it entailed? You don't know. None of us know at this point. And is it as substantive as you think the President is making it out to be at this point?

[Mohamed El Erian]

We don't know. And you raise an important question. Who are we talking to on the Iranian side? Let's not also forget that as we've eliminated the top layers, command and control has been shifted down to the field to field commanders who have a preexisting order to take advantage of, quote, opportunistic targets. So can you control the ground? Can you control the field. There's lots of question marks. But what you see in the market is exactly what you said. People were short. They were positioned for a further escalation because of the 48 hour ultimatum that was given to Iran and the counter threat of Iran and the fact that Israel started attacking electricity infrastructure in the Iran already. So they were positioned for an escalation and suddenly you have the possibility of a de escalation and the market is reacting violently to that change.

[Joe Kernan]

WT was at 98. So they went out on a limb Goldman and said we think it will be at 98 for the next month. But then they said for the month after that 105. And I said how can they, how can you possibly make any determinations when you don't know what the next headline or two social posts could be? So we went from 98, where are we now? We're 88, 87 right now. So there's no. This totally depends on, on what happens on the, on the ground between the United States and Iran. For the near term it does.

[Mohamed El Erian]

But I would also add that we have crossed some important economic and financial lines. There has been long term damage. Qatar announced last week that 17% of its LNG production is taken out for a number of years. We've seen other infrastructure. Today I have an FD article suggesting that the flow of funds from the GCC to the rest of the world is not going to be as ample. They've provided 800 billion in the last four years for investments elsewhere that may not be as ample because of the need to invest in your own country and fix your own country and protect your own citizen. So we are going to see quite a tale of in terms of the economic and financial implications that the market is yet to fully price it.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Mohammed, watching these moves, obviously this is the idea that, okay, we're not facing a deadline that comes tonight. But President Trump likes to move far more quickly than traditional political moves take place. He's extending a five day window to negotiate all of this, which gets us either to Friday morning, if that is a five days from now, or till Friday evening if that's five days from the existing deadline tonight. We could be setting ourselves up for a potential reset of everything this coming weekend if those talks don't move as quickly as he would like to see over the next five days, if not before.

[Mohamed El Erian]

So what happens in the next five days if whatever central command is left in Iran cannot control the field commanders? What happens if Israel doesn't follow the US So a lot can happen in the next five days, let alone what happens in five days. So it's going to be really an uncertain period. And you know, asymmetrical wars, you've heard this on the air so many times, asymmetrical wars are really hard to end, especially when you have multi parties to it. So the next five days are going to be critical in seeing whether you could hold the thing together pending these behind closed door negotiations that we've just learned about.

[Joe Kernan]

All right, and do we say goodbye to Mohamed? We'll see you. Mohamed

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[Becky Quick]

Coming up on Squawk Pod.

[Joe Kernan]

I just spoke to the president.

[Becky Quick]

Breaking news from President Trump directly to our Joe Kernan.

[Joe Kernan]

This is the president's take on that insisting that its regime changed.

[Becky Quick]

Then a conversation on what's left to do militarily with former Trump White House National Security Council director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction, it's Richard Goldberg.

[Richard Goldberg]

The United States and Israel came into this operation with a defined target set. We understand over the weekend, if you were to measure that, it looked like we were over halfway. But halfway means another three weeks potentially of targets to go through.

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[Dr. Guy Winch]

Today, men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season, we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight and to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts,

[Becky Quick]

you are listening to a very newsy squawk pod. About an hour and a half into our show this morning, we got more news direct from President Trump. Here's Joe Kernan.

[Joe Kernan]

I just spoke to the president. President Trump said the discussions had been very good over the last 48 hours, very intense discussions. I said, well, with whom? I thought, you know, there aren't a lot of leaders left alive. He said, they have representatives. Obviously, that's been one of the things that Iran has tried to say, that we've got a structure more than any one person. The president went on to say or insist that this is regime change because it's totally different. People that were involved in the last regime, I would imagine some of the people are the same. This is the president's take on that, insisting that its regime change went on to say great meetings, great conversations, and hopes that within the next five days something very substantive can be arrived at for the end of hostilities. So you heard, you heard some of it on the speaker.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You just had them on. Look, this is significant. We saw the huge jump in the, in the futures. We were as high as 1175, almost instantaneously on the Dow. Now it's up close to a thousand S and P futures up by 133. We saw oil prices collapse on this potential news. First of all, it's President Trump removing the deadline from tonight for the power, for the strikes that they were going, for additional hostilities, for additional hostilities and strikes that he threatened for the utilities in Iran. Iran came back and was threatening to go after desalination plants and other infrastructure plants in the Gulf states. That could be some of what we're watching and kind of seeing. What happened with, I wonder, putting that five days, that gives you a lot of room.

[Joe Kernan]

No, he was obviously in a rush. Rich Goldberg, you served in the first Trump administration as the National Security Council director for countering Iranian weapons of mass distress. What does this mean for the strait? I guess we don't really know at this point whether there's an agreement from Iran to cease and desist on making it impossible for traffic to flow through.

[Richard Goldberg]

Yeah, I think my key question is going to be where are we at in the actual military mission? The United States and Israel came into this operation with a defined target set and we were told that would take four, potentially eight weeks to clear the target sets. Those were military missions to degrade both the external war making capabilities and the internal war making capabilities against the people of Iran. We understand over the weekend, if you were to measure that, it looked like we were over halfway. But halfway means another three weeks potentially of targets to go through. So are we prematurely, potentially pulling the plug and leaving the rump regime in place without having fully degraded its military capabilities both externally and internally? That will be a question mark. But here's the deal. The President hasn't stopped operations. The Israelis are not stopping operations. I think what happened over the weekend is in masterful form. We've seen him do this multiple times and he built up the market to maximum risk premium expectations and he has now maximally collapsed those risk premium expectations with maximum deflation. And there could very well be very intense dialogues with somebody. We've seen reports over the weekend that the Qataris are racing around trying to broker something. They have not been successful in the past. But I look at the force posture, I look at the continuing operations, I look at the expectations of how much longer we needed to get to the end of our target sets and whether the President is going to be satisfied, particularly in the nuclear domain, which we don't talk about a lot. If this is his pathway to get the 400 kg of highly enriched uranium out of Isfahan down in those tunnels, or if this is a way to continue to buy more time knowing he has 1, 2, 3 weeks targets remaining that he really wants to get through and this is more market management, I

[Joe Kernan]

don't know if I would. We're characterizing it at the bottom, Rich, that he says he could get regime change this week. That's not really what he said and we were.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What he basically said this is regime

[Joe Kernan]

change in his view, but he's paraphrasing that it's different people than. I think he was making the point that anyone that you would have been dealing with a month ago, that many of those people are no longer with us. I think that was, I think what

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

he was talking about was the hoping for some big something this week. Again, take that deco down. I don't think that's true. Hoping we get something this week. I think he was saying, suggesting in terms of some settlement with the Iranians is what I understood him to be.

[Joe Kernan]

This is, I think this is a framework at this point. I don't know how much is right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But, Rich, let me ask you, if you're looking at the military objectives that they set out with, and then you listen to the rhetoric that's come from whoever is in the Iranian regime at this point where they say what they'd like to, what they would insist in terms of reaching some stalemate, would say, first of all, they want the US And Israel to promise that they are never going to come back and attack again, which I think is almost a nonsense, probably a nonstarter period with both the United States and Israel. The second being that they want the Strait of Hormuz to operate differently from this point on. And basically every nation's going to have to ask Iran's permission to be shipping anything through the Strait of Hormuz, which seems like another absolute nonstarter, not just for the United States and Israel, but for the Gulf states and anybody else who is moving things through there. Does that sound to you like those are impossible ideas to get any sort of settlement?

[Richard Goldberg]

Well, I think for the president, if you are going to say this was a successful operation, you'd have to be able to describe the end states. Does Iran have any ability to move forward with a nuclear weapons program? If the answer is no, and you've also accounted for the loose nuclear material that's trapped down in the tunnels or under buried rubble, then that's a good outcome. If the question is can they produce ballistic missiles or cruise missiles, can they reload their stockpiles? And the answer is no, not for years upon years based on what we've done to the industrial base, Very good outcome. Similar question on their drone capacity as well and their naval forces, you then come to the Strait of Hormuz, and I think that's the big question here, and that is, have you achieved an end state where Iran does not think, the rump regime does not think that they've won, that they have used their terror, extortion to be able to control global energy markets and brought the United States to the table prematurely to end a conflict before they've run their full military target sets. If that's the perception on the regime side, at the end of it, that's not good long term stability for the Strait of Hormuz and for our economy, our national security. If, on the other hand, all of those targets are achieved and you're able to say to them, you can keep threatening all you want, we're reopening the Strait, we're able to do it on our terms, then you've actually left this regime pretty helpless with external threats. Then the only other question is how many of the targets did you achieve on the internal repression apparatus in command and control to give the Iranian people that historic opportunity that the President promised them?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Rich. What it sounds like is you're saying that there's not going to be some settlement that's reached, that basically they're going to be squashed and it's a take it or leave it sort of situation. That's not necessarily the message I got from reading the truth, social or hearing what the President was telling Joe.

[Richard Goldberg]

Well, it's not my prerogative. The President's the chief negotiator. So if he's going to negotiate some sort of an agreement that has some sort of a compromise and leaves external threat capabilities intact on the Iranian side in order to get the strait reopened, and who knows what the Qataris are offering to pay the Iranians as some sort of an appeasement price that's been reported as well. I don't think that's a good end state. I think the President knows that's not a good end state. And so I come back to the beginning, which is where are we at on the actual military mission? He's going to be asking General Kaine, Admiral Cooper, have we achieved all the objectives? Have you reached the end of your target bank? Similarly with our Israeli partners, have you achieved the end of your target bank for all the strategic objectives which we may very well support in concept, even if it's not our strategic objectives that our military is working after? If the answer is no, sir, we need another week. We need two more weeks. We need three more weeks. And the President needs to find out how to provide that space and maneuverability in the market to reduce those pressures that are on him to get to the end of the military mission.

[Joe Kernan]

I guess if the one thing we'll take away from this that probably is responsible for that big move in the futures Rich, is that they were talking, we were talking with Iran for the past 48 hours. I don't know if that really was something. I guess we should have assumed that there's always some behind the scenes dialogue going on. But it got so, you know, so heated on both sides, incendiary on both sides that maybe that's what we should take away from this. Great discussions. They want very intent now, Trump. And I guess we can assume that President Trump as well as Iran, they wouldn't be engaging in these discussions, I guess, if they didn't want some type of end to the hostilities. But beyond that, we don't know very much at all, Rich, but we appreciate your time. Thank you.

[Richard Goldberg]

You bet.

[Becky Quick]

Next on Squawkpod, more on the President's news on the Iran war on the ground in Dubai with CNBC's Dan Murphy.

[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

It is important to note that this is a postponement, not necessarily a ceasefire.

[Becky Quick]

Unpacking the quote, intense conversations between the US And Iranian representatives.

[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

I would question who exactly the White House is dealing with.

[Becky Quick]

More analysis plus news from Iran. Yep, more news right after this.

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[Becky Quick]

Welcome back to Squawkpod with Joe Kernan

[Joe Kernan]

and Becky Quick, welcome back. Now the dow is up 640 points. We were down about 300 at one point, moved to up almost 1300 points. A reversal on what President Trump said on Truth Social and what he said to us on the phone about very productive conversations with representatives that he considers to be regime change at this point, in his view, but intense discussions. And the U.S. he says, is very intent on making a deal. You saw it. Check out energy prices. We saw WTI at about 98, now down to 91. And rent was also quite a bit higher. CNBC's Dan Murphy joins us now with more from Dubai. What do you think, Dan?

[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

Hey there, Joe. I don't know about you, but I think I'm going to need a deep tissue massage when all of this is over. The reversal that we've just seen in oil will have to go down in probably the history books as one of the sharpest that we've ever seen after, as you mentioned, President Trump just posting on Truth social media that the United States and Iran have held in his words, very good and productive conversations over the last two days towards a, quote, complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East. President Trump saying he has now instructed the Department of Defense to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure now for a five day period. That is, of course, subject to the success of ongoing talks here, he says, which he also says will continue through the course of this week. As I mentioned, the market reaction here has been really immediate and dramatic. Oil prices collapsed immediately, Brent and WTI both dropping sharply as the prospect of those imminent US Strikes on Iranian energy assets faded. And then, of course, US Equity futures also soared. Off the back of this as well, just to add a layer of context here, this is a significant development, but it is important to note that this is a postponement, not necessarily a ceasefire, perhaps too soon to use that word. And this five day window is also conditional because Hormuz effectively remains closed as well. And of course, Iran has not yet responded publicly, the market certainly remaining on a knife edge here as well. The other thing to point out is that if the Friday deadline passes without a signed deal, then we could probably expect prices to rocket back up as well because Trump had given Tehran until tonight, Washington time to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on those Iranian power plants. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant also telling NBC News that all options remained on the table. And Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had backed this threat as well. So ultimately, markets had been attempting to price how credible that threat scenario was. And because we had oil tracking near that triple digit handle in that triple digit range, then obviously they believed the president on his word when he said he would go ahead with these strikes. It also helps to explain why we've seen such a dramatic reversal here. A couple of key questions to keep in mind as we continue to track the market reaction here, Joe and Becky, first and foremost, I would, I would question who exactly the White House is dealing with. You have to wonder, given the fact that the new supreme Leader still hasn't been seen in public, no proof of life, a big question mark over his not just whereabouts but wellness as well really raises the question of who exactly is the President and the White House dealing with. The civilian government inside Iran has also proven to not necessarily be able negotiators. And then at the same time as well inside the Iranian leadership structure, you also have the irgc, which has been acting increasingly independently of that civilian government and also perhaps of the Supreme Leader, the new Supreme Leader as well. So plenty of unanswered questions here, but markets obviously reacting thick and fast to the president's post on truth only a short time ago.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Hey, Dan, just very quickly, the perspective of the Gulf states because when the president threatened and said this deadline, if they didn't reopen the strait would mean he would attack utilities in Iran. Iran's return threat was that they would go after desalination and other critical infrastructure for the Gulf states. What was the reaction or the feeling in the Gulf states to that?

[CNBC Reporter Dan Murphy]

Well, the Gulf states have already been on edge, Becky. As you know, over the last four weeks we have seen significant attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and on Gulf civilian infrastructure as well. And you and I were talking at the end of last week about the two tone shift that has happened inside this region. These countries are furious at Iran's threats and ongoing response here because it has been undermining their economies and of course undermining the relationship that they have with the United States as well. Senior Emirati officials have told me in the last few days as well that ultimately Tehran's strategy has failed here because this has brought the Gulf states closer together and ultimately will bring them closer to the White House as well as they continue to have to negotiate their own security planning moving forward and of course working with the White House as well moving forward on what any future relationship with the Iranians is going to look like too.

[Joe Kernan]

All right, Dan, we appreciate that. Thanks. Time will tell. 600 points now on reversal of the reversal at least a regression back to 50% regression right. Iran's Fars the news agency says no direct or indirect talks have been held with the US and is disputing is according to Reuters, is disputing Trump's statement. Iran's Fars News Agency, citing a source, said that there are no direct or indirect communications with the United States despite US President Donald Trump's recent statements about productive talks with Tehran. Fars also said Trump backed down on targeting power plants after Iran warned that it would target power plants across West Asia in response. So markets are actually that came out and the markets moved back up. But I don't, I don't know what to believe out of well, this is

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

somebody in Iran saying that this is a source talk.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah. A source talking to the far as News Agency

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

BlackRock's Larry Fink just out with his 2026 letter to investors. It's titled growing with your country Thoughts from a long term optimist. In it he talks about long term investing. He says at its best, long term investing performs a kind of civic miracle when people invest their savings over decades, not days. The capital markets put that money to work financing companies, infrastructure and jobs. And when that cycle happens in your own country, your future and your nation's future become linked. Pretty interesting here. Similar message that long term investing is what Larry Fink has always preached about and how that helps people build up their retirements. This time around I think he's acknowledging, he goes on to say, acknowledging that the idea the world is reorganizing around self reliance. So if you listen to what he just said there, it sounds like invest in America for Americans. Of course, BlackRock operates all over the world so you could take it from whatever country you're listening in. He also addresses AI and entity, said I will create significant economic value. Ensuring that participation in that growth expands alongside it is both the challenge and the opportunity. And yeah, that's probably an understatement with what we can expect from AI.

[Joe Kernan]

Any mea culpas about DEI esg climate change? I just wonder because there's a piece in the Journal today called it's Andy Kessler op ed piece woke goes up in smoke. The vibe has shifted. But will the monster come back to haunt us like Freddy Krueger, which he's come back like. Well, how many times? I don't think he's come back as many times as Freddy Krueger. Michael Myers or Jason have both come back more than Freddie's been back about seven times. I think, but he was a ghost to start with. I'm not sure. Jason. Well, President Trump Jason was a boy originally. Jason was, I think the mother was the one who did it.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah.

[Joe Kernan]

In the beginning.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Because he drowned in the camp.

[Joe Kernan]

Yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Sleepaway camp.

[Joe Kernan]

Bingo. Exactly.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

In the meantime, President Trump says that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents will deploy to US Airports starting today to help TSA agents who are stretched thin because of the ongoing Department of Homeland Security shutdown. TSA agents haven't been paid in weeks. I think it's approaching a month at this point. And some airport security lines have been growing to hours long. According to the Wall Street Journal, the president's first social media post over the weekend on the ICE deployment came as a surprise to ICE and DHS officials, who then had to figure out a plan. On cnn, White House border czar Tom Homan said that ICE officers would help TSA agents in areas that don't require their specialized expertise. Things like guarding exit doors that they can do. They said they wouldn't be necessarily watching things go through the X ray machines. Homan said the details would be decided by this morning.

[Becky Quick]

That's the podcast for today. Thank you for starting your week with us. Squawkbox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin live for three hours every weekday morning on CNBC starting at 6 Eastern to get the best bits of that TV show right into your ears. You can follow Squawk Pod wherever you're listening now. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow. Have a good day.

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