Squawk Pod: Talks with Iran, a Call with the President, & Energy Prices
Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Key Guests: Mohamed El Erian (Allianz), Richard Goldberg (former Trump NSC official), Dan Murphy (CNBC Reporter, Dubai)
Episode Overview
This episode dives into a frenetic morning of breaking news around sudden diplomatic movements between the United States and Iran, dramatic market swings—especially in energy prices—and direct communication between President Trump and the CNBC Squawk Box team. As global markets whipsawed on rumors, social media posts, and official statements, the hosts provided real-time analysis in conversation with economic and geopolitical experts. The focus was on interpreting the implications of U.S.-Iran talks, assessing the credibility of claims from both sides, and making sense of the risk recalibration in oil, metals, and equities.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Energy Price Volatility and Market Shock
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Opening State of Play [03:11–04:26]:
- Oil prices were soaring as the show began:
- WTI at $98+, Brent up 1% to $113.31.
- Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for Brent to $110 (from $98) in response to escalating Middle East tensions.
- Precious metals were falling sharply.
- Oil prices were soaring as the show began:
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Truth Social Post Impact [04:26–06:15]:
- President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants were postponed for five days due to "productive conversations".
- Market Response: Oil cratered instantly, with WTI dropping 12.7%, Brent falling from $113 to $97.
- Equities soared: “Dow futures...are up by 935” – Andrew Ross Sorkin [05:29]
- Treasury yields dropped sharply; safe-haven flows reversed.
Quote – Andrew Ross Sorkin [05:45]:
"That's a decline of 12.7% for WTI which is all of a sudden back at 85.75. It had been trading at $98 plus this morning."
2. Diplomatic Signals & Uncertainty
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Direct Presidential Communication [04:35, 17:31]:
- Joe Kernen discusses first the Truth Social announcement, then his own direct conversation with President Trump.
- Trump described “very good and productive conversations” with Iran and expressed hope for substantive progress within five days.
Quote – Joe Kernen [17:31]:
"I just spoke to the president. President Trump said the discussions had been very good over the last 48 hours, very intense discussions...They have representatives. Obviously, that's been one of the things that Iran has tried to say, that we've got a structure more than anyone person."
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Iran’s Dispute of U.S. Claims [35:08]:
- Iranian Fars News Agency told Reuters that there were “no direct or indirect talks with the US,” contradicting Trump's statements.
- Markets responded to these contradictions in real time, adding confusion.
3. Expert Reactions and Geopolitical Analysis
Mohamed El-Erian (Allianz Chief Economic Adviser) [07:00–14:03]
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Called the post “an important turnaround,” noting investors previously sought only “flight to cash.”
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Warned of lingering uncertainty, particularly over Israeli buy-in (“there are three warring parties”).
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Emphasized that “the objectives of the three are not aligned” – reaching a shared off-ramp is historically tough.
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“Who are we talking to on the Iranian side?”—alluding to disrupted Iranian command and “field commanders” possibly having autonomy.
Quote – Mohamed El Erian [07:00]:
"It's an important turnaround, Joe, because we were seeing flight to cash as the only safe haven and that was contracting markets in a significant manner. The big question for me right now is...can you get Israel to buy in as well?"
Quote – Mohamed El Erian [08:33]:
"Political scientists have had enormous difficulty defining an off-ramp that can attract two, let alone three parties to this war...the objectives of the three are not aligned."
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Outlined the enduring economic damage: Qatar lost 17% of LNG capacity for years, GCC investment flows may dwindle as governments need to rebuild at home [11:47].
Richard Goldberg (Former Trump NSC Official) [14:23, 19:43–26:25]
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Warned the U.S./Israel coalition had “potentially another three weeks” of targets in Iran—suggesting risk of premature pullback.
- “Halfway means another three weeks potentially of targets to go through.” [14:35]
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Raised doubts over whether the “regime change” Trump described is substantive or simply different faces in power.
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Cautioned that unless all military objectives—especially regarding nuclear capacity—are achieved, any deal could leave Iran emboldened.
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Highlighted “market management” aspects, suggesting strategic communication may drive both market and military timing.
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Skeptical Iran’s demands (guarantees against future strikes, control of Strait of Hormuz) are remotely possible for U.S./Israel to accept [22:30–23:24].
Quote – Richard Goldberg [23:24]:
"...have you achieved an end state where Iran does not think, the rump regime does not think that they've won, that they have used their terror, extortion to be able to control global energy markets...If that's the perception on the regime side, ...that's not good long-term stability for the Strait of Hormuz and for our economy, our national security."
4. Analysis from the Ground: Dan Murphy in Dubai [27:30–35:08]
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Emphasized that this is a postponement, not a ceasefire: “perhaps too soon to use that word.” [27:30]
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Noted the Friday deadline as a new key marker—failure to reach a settlement could launch new volatility.
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Questioned the credibility/sustainability of the talks given uncertainty over “who exactly the White House is dealing with” in Iran.
- Civilian Iranian government seen as ineffective negotiators, IRGC acting independently; new Supreme Leader has not been seen.
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Gulf states are “furious” with Iran but current crisis has “brought the Gulf states closer together and ultimately will bring them closer to the White House.” [34:09]
- Iran’s strategy of threatening energy/security infrastructure is “backfiring.”
Quote – Dan Murphy [27:30]:
"It is important to note that this is a postponement, not necessarily a ceasefire..."
Quote – Dan Murphy [34:09]:
"Senior Emirati officials have told me...Tehran's strategy has failed here because this has brought the Gulf states closer together and ultimately will bring them closer to the White House."
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote / Moment | |-----------|--------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:35 | Joe Kernen | "I am pleased to report...productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution..." | | 05:45 | Andrew Ross Sorkin | "That's a decline of 12.7% for WTI which is all of a sudden back at 85.75..." | | 07:00 | Mohamed El Erian | "It's an important turnaround, Joe, because we were seeing flight to cash as the only safe haven..." | | 17:31 | Joe Kernen | "I just spoke to the president. President Trump said the discussions had been very good..." | | 23:24 | Richard Goldberg | "...have you achieved an end state where Iran does not think...they have won..." | | 27:30 | Dan Murphy | "It is important to note that this is a postponement, not necessarily a ceasefire..." | | 34:09 | Dan Murphy | "...Tehran's strategy has failed here because this has brought the Gulf states closer together..." |
Timeline of Major Segments & Insights
| Time | Segment | Details | |----------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:04 | Episode Theme Introduction | Set up: Iranian war, Truth Social post, effect on energy markets, Trump phone call | | 03:11 | Energy Market Status | Energy prices spike pre-news | | 04:26 | Trump’s Truth Social Post | President claims diplomatic progress, postpones strikes, futures and oil crash | | 05:45 | Market Reaction | Sharp reversal in oil and equities due to the post | | 07:00 | Mohamed El Erian Analysis | Discusses market turnaround and the diplomatic/strategic complexities | | 11:47 | Economic Damage Assessment | Long-term disruptions to oil/gas infrastructure, GCC investment, etc. | | 14:23 | Goldberg on Military Strategy | Skepticism about depth of regime change, why five-day delay may be strategic rather than final | | 17:31 | Direct Trump Call | Joe Kernen shares details from his conversation with Trump | | 19:43 | Goldberg on Red Lines & End States | Importance of truly neutralizing Iran's threat before any deal | | 27:30 | Dan Murphy, Dubai – Ground Report | Explained five-day postponement vs. ceasefire, questioned Iranian chain of command, Gulf states’ reactions | | 35:08 | Iran’s Contradiction | Fars News Agency denies any talks, renews threat posture |
Thematic Takeaways
- Information Asymmetry & Uncertainty: Market reactions highlight how reliant global finance is on rapidly shifting narratives with imperfect or contradictory information.
- Diplomatic Dance: U.S. strategy appears to mix military pressure with public signaling to manage both adversary behavior and market expectations.
- Regime Change Ambiguity: Who counts as “the regime” in Iran is up for debate; whatever changes underway are occurring under immense external and internal pressure.
- Energy Security Front and Center: The Strait of Hormuz, control of energy resources, and the potential for further escalation or de-escalation continue to drive not just energy prices, but also broader economic sentiment.
- Gulf States Unity: Iran’s threats may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.–Gulf alignment.
Final Notes
- Immediate Uncertainty: The five-day window suggested by Trump (to Friday) is now a global countdown—if no deal, volatility likely returns.
- Who’s in Charge in Iran?: Credibility of negotiations is questioned by both CNBC experts and the reporting from Dubai, as Iran’s power structure remains opaque in the wake of leadership targeting.
- Watch the Next Headline: As Joe Kernen said, trying to forecast markets under these conditions is “impossible...depends on what happens on the ground between the United States and Iran” [11:11].
This episode underscores the speed and interconnectedness of geopolitics, markets, and modern media—with every statement, denial, and tweet swinging fortunes and raising new questions within minutes.