The UAE’s Infrastructure & Oil Markets 3/16/26

Summary

Squawk Pod – “The UAE’s Infrastructure & Oil Markets” (March 16, 2026)

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Overview:

This episode focuses on the impact of ongoing conflict in Iran and the Middle East on global oil markets, the UAE's infrastructure security, market sentiment amid geopolitical upheaval, and the economic and political ramifications for both global investors and US monetary policy. Featuring a ground report from Dubai, expert analysis from Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, and a geopolitical perspective from Michelle Caruso Cabrera, the cast explores whether market "complacency" is warranted, what risks remain, and how strategic attacks are reshaping safe-haven perceptions and investment flows.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Market Reaction to Middle East Conflict (01:02 – 06:17)

• General Sentiment:

  • Despite military escalations in Iran and targeted attacks in Dubai, major US indices are experiencing only measured pullbacks.
  • The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are off their highs by 7.8%, 8%, and 5.5% respectively, but still within ranges seen six months ago.

• Insight from Robert Frank:

  • "It’s been this slow kind of grudging decline since the start of the war... I do think it’s a matter of, you’ve kind of done a little bit of damage to the longer term trend." (03:13)
  • Discusses market tendency to "buy the dip" and questions if current actions reflect "composure or complacency."
  • Warns that median S&P stocks are down over 15% from highs, hinting at more pronounced underlying damage than index levels suggest.

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2. On the Ground in Dubai: Strikes & Sentiment (06:17 – 11:57)

Report from Dan Murphy, CNBC (Dubai):

• Strikes on Fajira Oil Zone & Dubai International Airport:

  • Significant fires and disruptions at both sites, the former being a critical UAE energy hub and only alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
  • No injuries reported but “the optics alone... will have a significant long-term impact.” (07:17)

• President Trump’s Stance:

  • Not ready to end the conflict, seeking better terms from Iran; working to build a "coalition of the willing" to secure Hormuz.

• Deserted Dubai:

  • “Most people…have done so [left the country]. And the population has definitely declined over the last couple weeks…” (11:02)
  • Mix of cautious optimism and faith in government capability amid ongoing uncertainty and exodus of expatriates and financial professionals.

• On UAE’s Safe-Haven Status:

  • The attacks “undermine the investability of the Gulf states,” challenging Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s status as international safe havens for capital. (09:23)

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3. Oil Market Dynamics & Investor Perspective (11:57 – 24:40)

Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist):

• Market Resilience & Risk Assessment:

  • Risk of recession 'very low' unless oil sustains above $120/barrel:

    "The recession risk is very low unless oil truly goes $120 a barrel and stays there." (01:16, reinforced at 19:22 and 20:41)

  • Energy and oil stocks have been “the best performing assets” since January due to anticipated instability. (17:11)

• Correction and Opportunity:

  • “50% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 are down 20%...That’s a proper correction.” (20:56)
  • Sees any further pullback as a buying opportunity:

    "You're basically telling people don't sell and if it does decline, there'd be an opportunity to deploy more." (21:32)

• Inflationary Regime:

  • Declares a “30-year” inflationary regime has begun, fundamentally shifting how the Fed and markets will behave:

    “That’s the one thing that investors really have to appreciate — we are now in an inflationary regime...that's a whole new world." (22:26)

• Rates to Stay Elevated:

  • “These ten year, these five year rates...you think they're there or even higher for years over time?”

    “Absolutely. And by the way, that's not necessarily a bad thing for stocks…inflation is good for equities general[ly].” (23:32, 23:41)

• Short-Term Oil/Equities Correlation Overstated:

  • “Oil’s up, stocks are down — I think that’s noise...I’d say the peak rate of change [in oil] has already happened.” (24:40)

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4. US-China Trade Talks & Fed Chair Drama (12:02 – 16:56)

• US and China Hold "Remarkably Stable" Talks (Paris):

  • Areas discussed: agriculture, critical minerals, and managed trade (12:02)

• Fed Chair Subpoena Blocked:

  • Federal judge rules against criminal subpoenas targeting Chair Powell; seen as an attempt to pressure the Fed.
  • "Jerome Powell today is now bathed in immunity, preventing my office from investigating the Federal Reserve. This is wrong and it is without legal authority." – D.C. attorney Jeanine Pirro (12:37-12:54)
  • Multiple options if Powell’s term lapses amid the standoff, including interim appointments, but political gridlock could unsettle markets.
  • Steve Liesman:

    “I have never had to read the Federal Reserve act as much as I’ve had recently.” (16:51)

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5. Geopolitical Deep-Dive: Energy Infrastructure, Regime Change & US Posture (27:26 – 35:05)

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (CNBC Contributor, CEO MCC Global Enterprises):

• Kharg Island & Oil Supply:

  • Kharg Island is vital for ~90% of Iran’s oil exports. Military, not oil infrastructure targeted thus far—major global supply still intact. (28:03)
  • Market sees little long-term supply disruption since major energy infrastructure remains undamaged. (29:15)
  • Backwardation in oil futures curve signals traders think the present spike is temporary.

• US Military and Political Objectives:

  • US/Israel have “been extremely effective” in degrading Iran’s regional capabilities, opening the door for off-ramps.
  • Market expects US not to seek regime change via force, but put pressure for internal change:

    “What I heard was...the US military will not be involved in nation building. US troops will not be involved in changing the top of Iran.” (25:32, 31:05)

• Remaining Risks:

  • Iran retains drone strike and mining capability in Strait of Hormuz; uncertainty around remaining arsenal keeps oil elevated. (32:52)
  • US deployment of Marines to the Gulf heightens “boots on the ground” tensions.
  • Possibility remains for further strikes on oil assets as bargaining chips.

• Wider US Strategy:

  • US employs economic pressure on Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran; economic coercion favored over direct intervention. (34:15)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

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• On Market Correction:

  “50% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 are down 20%...That’s a proper correction.”
  — Mike Wilson (20:56)

• On the UAE’s “Safe Haven” Brand:

  “If Iran’s objective was to undermine the investability of the Gulf states, then you could say that objective has been achieved.”
  — Dan Murphy (09:23)

• On Policy Communication:

  “Everything a politician ever says, no matter where they are in the world, is for domestic at home consumption.”
  — Michelle Caruso Cabrera (31:05)

• On US Approach to Iran:

  “What I heard was...the US military will not be involved in nation building. US troops will not be involved in changing the top of Iran. It will have to be up to them.”
  — Michelle Caruso Cabrera (31:05)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:02] – Episode theme and market setup
• [03:13] – Robert Frank analysis on slow market declines
• [06:17] – Dan Murphy’s report from Dubai: strikes and their impact
• [09:23] – Optics and implications for UAE’s reputation
• [11:02] – Dubai’s population exodus and mood check
• [17:11] – Mike Wilson: energy stocks’ performance as precursor
• [19:22] – “Recession risk is very low unless oil…”
• [22:26] – On entering a new, long-term inflationary regime
• [23:49] – “Inflation is good for equities...[if] the Fed isn’t killing the cycle”
• [27:26] – Caruso Cabrera on Kharg Island, military versus oil infrastructure
• [31:05] – On interpreting US statements about regime change
• [32:52] – Iran’s drone/mining capability and risks for Hormuz
• [34:15] – US applying economic pressure elsewhere (Cuba, Venezuela)

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Summary Table: Key Themes & Perspectives

| Theme | Speaker(s) | Insight | |------------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Market Resilience | Frank, Wilson, Quick | Correction reflects more strain than headline indices. Cautious optimism or dangerous complacency debated. | | Geopolitical Impact on Energy| Murphy, Caruso Cabrera | Attacks diminish Gulf “safe haven” image; yet, hard infrastructure risk still perceived as manageable. | | Inflation & Interest Rates | Wilson | Era of persistent inflation underway, Fed and markets must adapt; higher rates may persist and aren’t all bad. | | US Political Dynamics | Liesman, Caruso Cabrera | Fed leadership drama introduces uncertainty; US posture in Middle East seen as pragmatic, focused on deterrence. | | Energy Security | Murphy, Caruso Cabrera | UAE and global shipping vulnerable, but market sees no lasting oil shock yet. |

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Takeaway

In an episode packed with breaking developments, Squawk Pod underscores how global markets are adapting—sometimes uncomfortably—to military and political shocks in the Middle East, with particular focus on oil’s strategic choke points, shifting investment perceptions in the Gulf, and the resilience of US equities against a new inflationary, high-rate backdrop. Analysts walk the fine line between alertness and complacency, as they parse whether current stability is fleeting or a testament to systemic strength. The episode concludes with a nuanced view of US strategy, preferring economic levers over direct military regime change, both in Iran and Cuba.

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For listeners seeking insight into the intersection of financial markets, energy security, and geopolitical strategy, this episode delivers both granular news and big-picture analysis—all filtered through unscripted, real-time debate and expert field reports.

Transcript

[Schwab Announcer]

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[Discover Card Spokesperson]

Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs. Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Geth with the times.

[Becky Quick]

With the times.

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You're playing the loot.

[Dan Murphy]

Yeah.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

And it sounds pretty good, right?

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

[Mike Wilson]

Bring in show music, please.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pot, all about oil. The third week of war in Iran. Morgan Stanley's chief US Equity strategist Mike Wilson is looking to the market's future.

[Mike Wilson]

The recession risk is very low unless oil truly goes $120 a barrel and stays there.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Michelle Caruso Cabrera says investors don't seem concerned for the long term.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

First of all, there hasn't been actual real destruction of any important energy infrastructure. Right. That would lead to permanent supply disruption.

[Squawk Pod Host]

And on the ground in Dubai, CNBC's Dan Murphy on the sentiment in the

[Dan Murphy]

Middle east, most people who have the ability to get out of the country, maybe they have a second home somewhere else, have done so. And the population here has definitely declined over the last couple of weeks.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Plus, in Paris, the US And China hold high level trade talks and in a scathing ruling, a federal judge has blocked subpoenas to the Federal Reserve in the criminal investigation of Chairman Jerome Powell. CNBC's Steve Liesman has the story and the context.

[Steve Liesman]

In the couple decades I've been doing this, I have never had to read the Federal Reserve act as much as I've had recently.

[Robert Frank]

It's been sitting there since 1913.

[Squawk Pod Host]

For you, Steve, it is Monday, March 16, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.

[Robert Frank]

Stand back.

[Mike Wilson]

You buy in three, two, one.

[Becky Quick]

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on cnbc. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Mike Santoli and Robert Frank. Joe and Andrew are off today. Gentlemen, welcome. It's good to see you both. After a down week for the markets and nearly four days in a row and declines for most of the major averages, you're now looking at the Dow which was down by about 2% last week. It was the biggest dec liner last week. Of the three major averages it is down by 7.8% from the all time highs. Nasdaq's closer to down by about 8%. S&P is down by what, a little more than five. Yeah, five and a half percent or so. This has been something we're watching really closely to this point. We haven't seen major pullbacks but you are seeing things start to kind of trickle away.

[Robert Frank]

It's been this slow kind of grudging decline since the start of the war. Now the market was already kind of churning around. It wasn't really kind of charging ahead beforehand. So it might have actually helped us. Yes, we're on a 5% pullback in the S and P. The median stock in the S and P as always is the case is down a lot more. Down more than 15% from its high. Not since the start of the war but since, you know, they're high. And I do think it's a matter of you've kind of done a little bit of damage to the longer term trend. We are where we were six months ago in the S&P 500. So you've kind of given back that last burst to all time highs. Now the question is what are we waiting for as a little bit of a signal that that it's been a little overdone to the downside or we can get better than feared outcomes in the Gulf. I mean that's really all it comes down to. I do think the market's still alert to the possibility of upside risk if we get de escalation and then you get a day like today where it seems like the Nasdaq can kind of do its own thing independent of oil prices to some degree. And we're looking to bounce basically to where we were Friday morning in the broad index.

[Becky Quick]

We have seen the dollar pick up dollar index at its highest level since May of 2025. If you take a look at where Treasuries stand this morning, yields are slightly lower but you're still talk a bit elevation since the last couple of weeks. 10 years sitting at 425. The two year is at 369. We do have a Fed decision coming this week. We'll talk more about that in just a moment. In the meantime, take a look at Oil prices, as Mike mentioned, that is where the markets will be focused. WTI this morning had been hovering a little higher than this right around $100 a barrel. Right now it's at 98, 94. Brent is at $104.57. And that has to be the key really for what we'll be watching.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

I mean, to Mike's point, we have been turning around. But I find it remarkable given the headlines that we had overnight in Dubai continued, not just the Hormuz issue but the strikes in the Dubai airport, strikes on continued oil facilities there. You've got oil at $100 or peaking around there this morning and you've got yields stubbornly the ten year, you know, four and a quarter around there. And yet markets are up this morning. I mean, it is the resilience is surprising. Every commentary over the weekend about whether this there is complacency in the stock

[Robert Frank]

market, I've been that's. But my line last week was does this represent composure or complacency? Is it because everybody kind of knows that in historically you're supposed to buy these events when you get a big pullback because they usually don't end A bull market. Often the market kind of overcorrects in the short term. But I almost feel like people were too quick to try to do the buy the dip, literally on the Monday morning after the initial attacks, we opened down and everyone tries to buy it. And now it's been this kind of grind lower since then. So I do think we are starting from benign levels, both where oil started, where rates started, where the economy was positioned. So I think there's explanations for why we're not jumping to the worst conclusion in terms of markets. But as I say, the market itself has to prove from here that it's not kind of looking past some of the risks. For the latest on the war in Iran, let's get to CNBC's Dan Murphy in Dubai. Morning, Dan.

[Dan Murphy]

Mike, good morning to you. Well, let me update you on some breaking news this morning. We are following a fresh wave of strikes on critical infrastructure here in the uae. I'll start with the recent strike that we've seen this morning at the Fajira oil industry zone on the UAE's east coast. This caused a large fire that authorities are now managing. This is One of the UAE's most important pieces of energy infrastructure. It is, of course, the only alternative that this country has to the Strait of Hormuz. And then separately, as you've been discussing as well, we have seen A drone strike at Dubai International Airport this morning that hit a fuel storage facility facility. The strike shut down the airport. It forced airlines attempting to get people out of the country to halt all traffic. And we have now also started to see some limited traffic begin flying again. But operations of course remain heavily disrupted here. What we've also seen is the Dubai media office confirming that no injuries have been reported from either incident. But of course you have to also assume that the blow that this presents to the UAE is significant. The optics alone of a strike on critical energy infrastructure and that critical transport hub as well will have a significant long term impact at the same time as well, oil prices as you flagged, continuing to hold around this 100 USD a barrel handle this morning after President Trump told NBC News at the weekend that he is not ready to end this conflict. The President suggesting that Iran does want to make a deal here, but he says he isn't ready because the terms aren't good enough yet. And of course, it all comes back to the Strait of Hormuz as well. We also learned at the weekend that the President had reportedly been briefing allies in Asia, in Europe and of course elsewhere around the world regarding what could be a coalition of the willing when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. He is hoping to make an announcement apparently in the coming hours on what could be a group of nations coming together to secure those critical oil shipments through what is a largely blocked waterway. Now, of course, the reaction and reception to this has been mostly lukewarm at this point. The President calling on countries like China and Japan and South Korea to get involved. But given the escalation that we've seen on the ground in the last 24 to 48 hours and the headlines that continue to come out of this conflict, it's still very unlikely that we will see naval escorts beginning through the Strait of Hormuz. That's a clear concern for energy traders and anyone watching this conflict right now, which still appears to have no military or diplomatic off ramp coming anytime soon. Guys.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

Dan, this is a bit of a nightmare for the UAE in a lot of these areas in the Middle east that had basically sold themselves to the world as havens of security and stability in an otherwise tumultuous region. What's been the response? I know the UAE tends to be tight lipped in these situations, but what's been the response? And do you think that Iran's strategy of getting these countries to pressure the US to dial down the attacks is likely?

[Dan Murphy]

Well, that's a key question at this hour as well. Of course, Iran has been threatening to target critical infrastructure in the Gulf countries. And we have seen that eventually in terms of the economic impact for the Gulf countries, in particular the uae, of course, the impact is perhaps too soon to measure, but on the optics alone, this is a really significant blow to this country and indeed to cities like Dubai and the and Abu Dhabi here in the uae, which really have in most recent years been positioning themselves as safe spaces for global talent and international capital as well. If Iran's objective was to undermine the investability of the Gulf states, then you could say that objective has been achieved. However, authorities that I've been speaking to over the weekend are very confident that they can stay on top of this. And in fact, the uae, which has been the recipient of the bulk of these Iranian attacks, has frankly done an outstanding job of mitigating those risks. The intercept rate is exceptionally high. And of course, locals here are very confident in the ability of the government to continue to protect them as well. Of course, when it comes to the long term, though, which is what we're all focused on right now, whether or not this will have a significant impact on these countries ability to continue to be magnets for deep pools of public and private capital, I think the question mark is still out on that at this point.

[Becky Quick]

Hey, Dan, very quickly, Friday we talked about how the financial sector there was basically shut down. People were told to work from home. What's the mood today? What's the feeling? Is that still the case?

[Dan Murphy]

Well, Becky, as I came into this hotel this morning for our live broadcast, I can tell you the streets are pretty empty here in Dubai. Shops, restaurants, bars, cafes mostly cleared out across the weekend. And most people who have the ability to get out of the country, maybe they have a second home somewhere else, have done so. And the population here has definitely declined over the last couple of weeks as this conflict continued to evolve. The mood on the ground here is one of cautious optimism, though. Yes, locals here following the instructions of authorities and attempting to stay safe at the same time as well, as I mentioned, very optimistic and very hopeful that the government here will continue to be able to protect them, too. So, yes, the mood on the ground is definitely one of cautious optimism at this stage. And of course, everyone here hoping that this conflict comes to an end sooner rather than later.

[Robert Frank]

Dan, thank you. Dan Murphy with the latest from Dubai.

[Becky Quick]

Top US And Chinese economic officials are holding talks in Paris. Sources told Reuters that yesterday's discussions were, quote, remarkably stable. Those talks reportedly touched on potential areas of agreement in agriculture Critical minerals and managed trade.

[Robert Frank]

While a US Judge blocking subpoenas issued in the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell. On Friday, the judge agreed with Powell, saying the probe was an improper attempt to intimidate the central bank into cutting interest rates. The U.S. attorney for D.C. jeanine Pirro, vowed to appeal that decision.

[Becky Quick]

He has neutered the grand jury's ability to investigate crime. As a result, Jerome Powell today is now bathed in immunity, preventing my office from investigating the Federal Reserve. This is wrong and it is without legal authority. Isn't it with legal authority? If a court decided this, isn't that

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

the definition of ultimate legal authority? But yes, for now.

[Becky Quick]

For now.

[Robert Frank]

Senior economics reporter Steve Liesman joins us with the potential impact on the Fed chair timeline. Hey, Steve.

[Steve Liesman]

Hey, Good morning, Mike. Yeah. How will this affect who will become Fed Chair and when could be one of the key outcomes from the Friday ruling. A judge. The background here is a US District judge slammed Pirro's Jeanine Pirro's subpoenas writing, quote, there is abundant evidence as the subpoenas dominant, if not sole purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will. Pirro said she would file both a motion to reconsider and an appeal, keeping the case alive for weeks and maybe months, especially if she wins either effort. And Senator Thom Tillis, who has vowed to not advance Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair while the criminal case against Powell remains alive, said after the ruling he would maintain that stance. So there's potential Warsh may not be confirmed when Powell's term as chair ends on May 15. In fact, odds on Kalshee put the chance that Warsh is approved by May 15th at just 66%. So there's a 34% chance it doesn't happen by then. And there's even a 7% chance isn't done by July 1st. So what happens if Powell's term expires and Warsh is not approved? Well, I talked over the weekend with Scott Alvarez, the former Fed General Counsel. He said Fed Vice Chair Jefferson could take over. The Fed Board of Governors could elect Powell as chair pro tem. That's happened before. Powell and Greenspan have both been for a brief period of time, chairs Pro 10 president could make a recess appointment, except that Congress never goes into recess anymore. And then the FOMC could also separately elect Powell or any FOMC member as their chair. So you could have two different chairs if they want, or the same one. Fed expert Mike Spindel predicted with inflation set to rise from surging oil prices and big questions facing the Fed, quote, markets will respond badly to all of this ridiculousness. Now, CNBC's Emily Wilkins reports that Kevin Wish will continue meeting with senators this week ahead of nomination hearings that are not scheduled. The question is when senators will get a chance to vote on that, on that nomination. The president over the weekend criticized Powell and the judge in a post. There was no hint, though, he wanted Pirro to drop the case. Guys.

[Robert Frank]

It's fascinating, Steve, considering that this effort, wherever it originated and however it was conceived, was meant to get Powell out of office more quickly. And the same exact effort could keep him in there longer or at least nearby longer. And so I just do wonder if there's just a point of practical concern here where it would say, you know, we want to ease the way for the chosen Fed chair to get in there, which will mean, you know, just sunsetting this, this court effort, which doesn't really have a hope of getting resolved by the end of Powell's term.

[Steve Liesman]

Well, certainly the, the judge, the ruling by the judge gave that out to Piro to, to basically drop the case. She did not take it. She actually redoubled her efforts so that, and then the president, I was waiting to see if the president would say something to tell her to either back off or to move on. And that's not the case so far. And the issue, Mike, is I don't think Tillis is alone in how he feels about this issue. I think he speaks for other senators too. So the question is whether or not if this case is still alive, it would, it would go forward even if Tillis himself dropped those objections. And the problem is the injection of politics into all this. I will tell you, Mike, that in the couple of decades I've been doing this, I have never had to read the Federal Reserve act as much as I've had recently.

[Robert Frank]

Yeah, there you go. It's been sitting there since 1913 for you, Steve. All right.

[Steve Liesman]

Appreciate it several times. Appreciate.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

Teas will be next.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Coming up next on Squawk Pod, reading the market tea leaves with Morgan Stanley's chief US Equity strategist, Mike Wilson.

[Mike Wilson]

If you can figure it out. The market definitely knows what's going on. It's no surprise or it's not a coincidence that oil and energy stocks are the best performing assets, really. Starting in January.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Stay tuned. We'll be right back.

[Schwab Announcer]

Trading at Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the Trade Desk, our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy. Gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help. And access support by phone, email, and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn [e-mail] trading thy ticket, lady, Jennifer of Coolidge.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

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[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

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The choice is simple. Pick up a pack today. Angel Soft. Soft and strong.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Simple. This is Squawk Pod from CNBC Today with Becky Quick, Robert Frank and Michael Santoli.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

Up and Becky.

[Becky Quick]

All right, welcome back, everybody. Our next guest says that the S and P could trade as low as 6,300. That's about 5% below Friday's close. Mike Wilson is chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. Mike, we cut that for the headline, but actually got a much more complex view of what's happening here. You think that the slowdown in equities actually started last fall, but it takes something more than that to really get things going. And maybe that's what this, this war with Iran could do at the moment.

[Mike Wilson]

That's exactly right. And it feels a lot like last year, right, where we had the market was actually worrying about several other things before the tariff Liberation Day sort of capitulation. And we think of this as sort of a mini version of that whole setup. So just really simplistically, you know, last year we worried about Doge, they worried about immigration controls, deep seek, etc. And then tariffs came along, and that was the final blow to kind of get the capitulation. This time it's been, you know, a disruption around labor. You have the private credit concerns, of course, and now you have the issue with Iran, which came out of the blue. But, you know, the markets have a way of thinking about this. You know, I like to kid around with folks like that. If you can figure it out, the market definitely knows what's going on. And it's no surprise or not a coincidence that oil and energy stocks Are the best performing assets really starting in January, we started with Venezuela, but it was all related. I mean this is a very well telegraphed attack and it happened. And so the markets got in front of it. Now, it doesn't mean they were out of the woods. I'm not sitting here, Mr. Complacent, but the markets have been digesting this and we think that fundamental, the underlying fundamental backdrop going into this event was just much stronger than what it was a year ago. So why should it go down? As much like the recession, risk is, is very, is very low unless oil truly goes $120 a barrel and stays there. And I can't predict that, you know,

[Becky Quick]

but, but you think if we had 6,300 then it would be a resumption back to higher levels?

[Mike Wilson]

That's right. Pretty quickly higher highs. I mean, you know, markets are reflexive and you know, is sort of as complacent as people think the markets have been. They have not been complacent.

[Steve Liesman]

Right.

[Mike Wilson]

50% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 are down 20% or more or 20% and 40% the S&P are down 20%. That's a proper correction. And this is the way it always goes down. Right. The S and P, the highest quality index always kind of gets hit at the end. Now, I don't know if we're going to get the final shock. I'm hoping we don't because that would probably be something bad happened. But you need to be mentally prepared for that. And if that were to happen, think about it as like a year ago. And by the way, we made the same call last year when this event happened around Liberation Day was like, okay, we. And it was much cheaper than too. So it was a little easier call. But I mean this time it's the same setup.

[Becky Quick]

But so you're basically telling people don't sell and if it does decline, there'd be an opportunity to deploy more.

[Mike Wilson]

Absolutely, absolutely. I mean, so you know, we did reduce small caps today. We upgrade that in November and that has outperformed nicely. So we want to kind of lock that in. So that's our way of saying, hey, there's still risk around rates, still risk around oil. You know, there's Fed uncertainty, as you all were just talking about. Okay, so all that could weigh on some of the lower quality parts of the market in the short term. But I want to make it clear, I want to go back to those areas because the earnings story in those areas is actually better, not worse.

[Robert Frank]

You've Been working with this framework that says you we kind of restarted a cycle or have this sort of stealth early cycle dynamic starting almost a year ago. How does that fit with. You're seeing start of the fraying in credit or least parts of credit spreads have probably bottomed. You know, the unemployment rate bottom like three years ago. So I don't know how that fits with this idea that we have this upswing dynamic.

[Mike Wilson]

Yeah, well, first of all, it's private economy versus the broader economy. So the private job market has been very, very soft. And as you know, as you know, last year when Doge happened, that was a government recession and that was the final piece of that sort of rolling recession. So I feel, I'm very convicted that we had a recession, it was just sort of stealthy and now we're having a recovery. Now it's not going to be as robust as your typical recession where you have everything go down at once. Okay, so that's where it's a little bit confusing, Mike, which is that we are kind of late, later cycle in credit. Okay. But we're having these hotter but shorter underlying labor cycles underneath the surface. So it's a, it's a different time. It's a tricky time. And I would summarize all that by saying the one thing that investors really have to appreciate is that we are now in an inflationary regime, which is different in my entire career and I'm an old guy. Okay. So this is like a whole new world. And that means that the Fed reacts differently. You know, the markets react differently. And these hotter but shorter cycle framework, I think is the right way to think about it.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

How long does that regime last, do you think? I mean, you're talking about a regime that's through the, through this year or even longer.

[Mike Wilson]

The inflationary regime.

[Robert Frank]

Yeah.

[Mike Wilson]

Oh, no, it's 30 years. I mean, yeah.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

I mean inflation rates, these 10 year, these five year rates that we're looking at now, four and a quarter, you think they're there or even higher for years over time?

[Mike Wilson]

Absolutely. I mean, and by the way, that's not necessarily a bad thing for stocks. We've made this call too, which is, you know, inflation is good for equities. General.

[Robert Frank]

Yes.

[Mike Wilson]

As long as the Fed isn't killing the cycle. And that's kind of where we've been. And now we have all these, you know, disruptions or concerns that test the market and that's, you know, that's, you know, the wall of worry, so to speak. So we have to, our job is to kind of understand the underlying dynamics.

[Becky Quick]

I want to point out the futures we were just above 300 points for the Dow futures, S and P futures up by 53 this morning. The NASDAQ up by 221. We started the morning or the program at 6:00am Eastern an hour and 20 minutes ago with the Dow futures up by 100. They rose as oil prices have come down. For whatever reason, we don't have oil prices circulating in the ticker. So let's bring it up here and you can take a look and see that WTI is now at 9726. Brent is back at 103 16. Is this basically just watch the oil price to tell you what's going to happen with equities.

[Mike Wilson]

I think in the very short term that's the simplistic bailout because let's be honest, this is, this is, you know, hard skiing. And so, you know, it's like, oh, oils up, stocks are down. I think that's noise. I mean if I had to make a, make a serious bet right now, I'd say the rate of change on the oil delta is already the rate of peak. The peak rate of change has already happened similar to last year. I think about, we were about this this morning. The peak rate of change on trade uncertainty. Not it wasn't over but the peak rate of change marked the low for equities. And so that's why I think we're in this bottoming process right now.

[Becky Quick]

Okay, Mike Wilson, thank you for coming in today. It's good to see you.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Next on Squawk Pod. It is the third week of conflict in the Middle East. CNBC contributor Michelle Caruso Cabrera shares her perspective informed by lessons from her time as a journalist and a politician.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

When President Trump said to the Iranians, now's the time to rise up, what I heard was to the American people, the US Military will not be involved in nation building. US Troops will not be involved in changing the top of Iran.

[Squawk Pod Host]

We'll be right back.

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[Becky Quick]

Right.

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[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

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[Squawk Pod Host]

And we're back. You're listening to Squawk Pod. Here's Becky Quick.

[Becky Quick]

Welcome back, everybody. President Trump is reportedly working to put together a coalition of countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Axios says that he hopes to announce it later this week. Joining us right now is CNBC contributor Michelle Carusa Cabrera, MCC Global Enterprises CEO. And Michelle, as soon as the news came out Friday that they had struck Carg Island, I thought of you because of your visit to Carg island back in 2016, actually being there, looking around and inside, at first I thought it was the oil infrastructure they'd struck. It turns out it's the military infrastructure there. But explain to us how we should be thinking of all of that to start.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

Yeah. So Kharg island is extremely important because it is the export terminal for Iran. 90% of their exports leave out of there. And if, if the oil infrastructure there were destroyed, that would be highly problematic. It could be financial collapse for them. Right. Because when they export oil, that's how they bring in foreign currency.

[Becky Quick]

Problematic probably for the world who is reliant on energy because energy is fungible. And if you're going to see no more coming out, then that's an issue for oil prices as well.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

Yes, absolutely. But now, these days, we now have precision bombing.

[Becky Quick]

Right.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

And the president says they attack the military infrastructure, not the oil infrastructure. I think when you see oil, what's happening today and how it's actually the front month is declining. Whenever I want to know what is the market thinking about the war in Iran, I look at the long term curve, Right. So here if you look, WTI is trading at 97. A week ago it was at 100. So it's lower than it was a week ago. Now, when you look at the June contract and the December contract, Those are only $5 higher than they were a few a week ago. And two weeks ago, December was only trading at 70. So the market's telling you that they don't think this is a long term situation. Why do they think that?

[Becky Quick]

One, which gets back to Mike's point, are they being complacent or are they being calm in how they.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

So I think there's a couple of reasons. One, first of all, there hasn't been actual real destruction of any important energy infrastructure.

[Becky Quick]

Right.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

That would lead to price permanent supply disruption. That is number one. Number two, when it comes to the very strict military objectives that the US has had, which is destroy the navy, destroy their ability with ballistic missiles, destroy their drone capacity, the US And Israel have actually been extremely effective. Iran is greatly, greatly diminished. The reason we see oil prices rising is because concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, when are we going to see resumptions? Iran is extremely interested in getting that straight open again because they need the money. I think also the markets believe in speaking with a lot of people who are involved in geopolitics. They think Trump, because of the success militarily thus far, has off ramps if he wants them, because he can say, we've destroyed the military, we've done all of these things. What remains undone is change in the top at Iran. In Iran, that was never a military objective. If you listen to anybody from the Pentagon, Pete Hetseth or General Kaine, they never articulated that. It was the president who articulated that.

[Becky Quick]

Iran has made it clear that in order for them to allow safe passage that they would require the United States and Israel to say that they are not going to come back in and strike them again. And I don't think you're ever going to get a guarantee from out of the United States or Israel.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

Certainly not out of Israel. Absolutely not. I still think there's room for, for negotiations there when it comes to that. And the President can do whatever he wants, by the way. I would say the other reason is if you see this front page story about the ft, the Indians trying to get involved as well in negotiations for the Strait of Hormuz. When it comes to the power at the top of Iran, it was President Trump who day one on that first, you know, taped announcement that he put out where he said to the Iranian people, now is your time to rise up. And a lot of foreign policy analysts looked at that, said, oh, the president is calling for regime change. For viewers who aren't Aware I spent a couple of years in politics and I now have a political ear, right. And when I heard the President say that, remember, everything a politician ever says, no matter where they are in the world, is for domestic at home consumption. So when President Trump said to the Iranians, now's the time to rise up, what I heard was to the American people, the US military will not be involved in nation building. US troops will not be involved in changing the top of Iran. It will have to be up to them. That's the way I interpreted it. So I think when it comes militarily, there's a lot of progress. And now they can work on if they want some kind of off ramp

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

to get out of this threat over the weekend of destroying more of the assets in Cargill and perhaps using that as.

[Mike Wilson]

Yeah.

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

As a bargaining chip. And then the question was, well then that would escalate things even further on the Iran side. And then you wonder, okay, what more could Iran do that they're not already doing? You saw the airport strike in Dubai yesterday. You saw more oil inflation, infrastructure assets attacked overnight as well. Do you think the administration would seriously consider taking out the oil assets on Cargill Island? And what response could Iran do then that they're not already doing?

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

So I don't think the President or the, or the Pentagon will take anything off the table ever.

[Mike Wilson]

Right.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

You never do that in this kind of situation. I think they are still unlikely to do that because to the degree agree that you hope that some day down the road there is a more friendly administration running Iran. You want them to have those oil that export ability to have the revenue, but could they do it? Absolutely. That is definitely a possibility. What was your other question? How could the Iranians respond? So I think another reason why oil is more elevated and stays elevated is because there's drone capacity. That's uncertain. How much do they have? They're cheaper. Can they get them? And also the mining capacity. They can mine easily. The Strait of Hormuz, much more easily. People don't know how many mines they have, 2,000 to 6,000. And they're easy to place with small boats. So those are the capacities that they, they generally have left. Remember, we've deployed marines now to the, to this. The expedition forces are there. Is that for Carg Island? Is that to deal with the islands off the coast?

[Michelle Caruso Cabrera]

Do you need this for.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

You know, I'm not a military analyst, but it certainly gives the President options. But now you start to get into boots on the ground.

[Robert Frank]

Right?

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

That's the tension that the we're about out of time.

[Becky Quick]

But I don't want to let you go without asking you about Cuba. I would say a few weeks ago it looked much more likely like the Americans might intervene there, but with this on the forefront, on the front burner.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

So actually, not to contradict you, but what I find astounding is even as this is going on with Iran, the US has been very, very active with Cuba. Cuba has been doing things that show they are caving to the pressure of the, the US with the oil embargo that's, that's happening right now. They're expected to announce some changes to the economy this morning that are believed to be a result of US Pressure The US Is doing to Venezuela, Iran and Cuba all the same thing, economic coercion. We're going to control your abilities economically. Forget about elections, forget about changes, you know, domestic democracy, et cetera. We are going to instill economic changes if we can, when it comes to Cuba and Iran, to Cuba and Venezuela in particular, in terms of trying to bring about change, at least in the Western Hemisphere.

[Becky Quick]

Michelle Crucicabrero, thank you.

[Squawk Pod Host]

That is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for listening. And it's Monday.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

Thank you.

[Squawk Pod Host]

Thanks for starting your week with us. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Please follow Squawkpod wherever you'd like to get your podcasts. Have a great Monday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow.

[Robert Frank]

We are clear.

[Mike Wilson]

Thanks guys so much.

[Discover Card Spokesperson]

Foreign.

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Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the trade desk. Our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy. Gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help and access support by phone, email and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn more at schwab. Com Trading.