
In a newsmaking–and market-moving–interview, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that the U.S. may have a deal with Iran as soon as today or tomorrow. He says, the “K-shaped economy is over,” and the era of the “C-shaped” economy has arrived. Plus, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel is at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group meeting for his company’s latest earnings release; he’s looking forward to new innovations like Snap’s Specs to drive demand for AI compute. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent - 14:10 Evan Spiegel - 44:59 In this episode: Scott Bessent, @SecScottBessent Evan Spiegel, @evanspiegel Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie
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Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
bring in show music, please.
Squawk Pod Host
Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawkpod two big interviews, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Sorry, Joe, a day late and a
Squawk Pod Host
yen short on the historic joint market intervention between the US And Japan. And here's news he says a deal with Iran for freedom of movement in the clogged Strait of Hormuz is close.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.
Squawk Pod Host
And SNAP CEO Evan Spiegel, he's built glasses or specs for this new artificial intelligence driven era and he's ready for the next big invention.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
What I'm really looking for are those sort of leading signs of, you know, what are the new consumer products that are being invented? What are the new experiences that are going to drive more demand?
Squawk Pod Host
All that ahead. It's Tuesday, August 4th, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Stand Becky by in three, two, one.
Becky Quick
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on cnbc. We are live from the NASDAQ Marketsite in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan. Andrew will join us later from the annual Aspen Economic Strategy Group meeting. Yesterday the Dow closed at a record high. You're going to see this morning it's pulling back by about 7 points. Energy prices pulled back yesterday. And once again this morning, you are looking at prices a little bit higher up by about A$58182. Brent crude is up by about 2 1/2% to 85,82s and P7600.
Joe Kernan
You start getting uncomfortable. If you got a 7000 target for the end of the year Perhaps, Yeah, I would think, I would think that if you had a 7,000 target to start the year with, you'd still be thinking, you know what, I'm sticking with my 7,000 because we don't know the war and everything else that's going on. That's just the mentality of people that are wrong a lot. And they will probably ride this 7800 if it does, if it goes or 8000 and then finally the towel gets thrown in when it just becomes. But I think at this point they can still sort of wishfully think, you know, I think there's so many things still staring us in the face that it could easily go and it could easily go. And we just said, Tom, you know, Leon is saying there's going to be some type of pullback before we. He thinks we ended 8,000 for 2026, but in the meantime he thinks a six handle possibly right.
Becky Quick
Look, oil prices spike, something happens in the Middle east and you can see
Joe Kernan
some very quick moves on some in AI. Yeah, chips. Chips, software.
Becky Quick
I mean just think about how different the narrative looks today than it did a week and a half ago, two weeks ago.
Joe Kernan
Was that it?
Becky Quick
That was it.
Joe Kernan
That was the buy. That was the dip to buy.
Becky Quick
I'm still convinced that this was that situation. Situational awareness that that was a huge blip that came from that.
Joe Kernan
But did we get, people get nervous, did we get it out of our system? The worry that companies are spending too much on AI?
Becky Quick
I don't know. You had the CEO of hugging face yesterday saying that he thinks China could catch up with this year. And by the way, they're already ahead, he thinks in the open.
Joe Kernan
Well, we better spend some more money. Palantir surging in the pre market, the company beat second quarter earnings and revenue and said commercial revenue more than doubled from a year ago. U.S. government revenue grew 90 to more than $800 million. In a CNBC interview, CEO Alex Karp reiterating his criticism of Frontier AI Labs, arguing that businesses shouldn't be forced to give up their intellectual property to work with the companies. He also didn't blame Chinese open source AI companies for distilling Frontier Labs work.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
How do you think the models got their value?
Joe Kernan
They distilled all the value of IP
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
everywhere, including enterprise everywhere.
Becky Quick
Like what?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
In a battle here, those things have to work. There's only one way for them to work ethically and that's called an application layer on the back of your own compute where you control the model. There's a way to get it it's not the only way, but the best
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
way to do it is you buy
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Palantir, you install it, you have us do it.
Joe Kernan
Palantir also lifted its full year revenue guidance. And prior to last night's earnings, the stock was down about 29% this year. But it's been a, a big winner over the past couple of years. If you were in, you were happy. You were in Palantir early, Right?
Becky Quick
I still go back to what Alex Karp told us. Must have been June when he came on talk about that. I think it was right before July 4th. Just talking about the idea that those models that we have here are not beloved. In fact, they're pretty. Silicon Valley does not feel very kindly towards them. And that there is a lot of antagonism and concern and questions about what happens, because that is something that every technologist, every CEO I've kind of spoken with since has verified his thoughts on that. It's hard to find somebody who disagrees.
Joe Kernan
The tokens.
Becky Quick
Yeah.
Joe Kernan
President Trump criticizing Chevron and ExxonMobil for making, in his words, too much money as oil prices have risen throughout the Iran war. On Friday, Chevron reported a nearly 400% increase in second quarter profits. Exxon's earnings more than doubled. They're making too much money. Okay. Based on a shortage, they're making too much money. I don't like it and I should be the last one to say because I'm a big free enterprise guy, nobody bigger. And you know, you're going to see oil when we're finished with Iran, you're going to see the prices drop through the floor. But they made too much money. Too much money. I don't know. The president called on oil majors to lower the cost of gasoline, saying it's his words, that they better cut the retail price. There's. We could discuss this on so many different levels, but we'd sound like we were talking about Elizabeth Warren if, if we did.
Becky Quick
It's a populist angle that comes in.
Joe Kernan
I mean, you know, I get it. I know this is how, this is how the president rolls. I understand how it happens. But, you know, when there's something like a pandemic where oil goes to $20, no one comes in and says, we're going to help you. At that point, it is. They're in that business. There are people that risk their capital to, to invest in oil companies. Something like this happens and the price goes where it is. What do we, is he going to. Would we have a Republican talk about a windfall Profits tax, potentially.
Becky Quick
I mean, that certainly sounds like something that he seems to be threatening.
Joe Kernan
What it sounded like.
Becky Quick
The one thing I will say is these major oil companies, Chevron and Exxon in particular, have been the reason that oil prices haven't gone higher with the refinery output that they've been putting through. They have been not just producing higher amounts of oil and energy to try and keep these prices down during the Middle east, but they have been refining at 96, 97, 98% of capacity. And if you did not have that, you would have seen much higher spikes because of the war in the Middle east that the president started and the
Joe Kernan
shareholders and pension plans and whomever are the actual owners. You think of companies not just as monoliths and CEOs, you know, raking in cash, but the people that have risked their dollars to do like capitalism works. When things like this happen, either the company explores more, either the company hires more people, that would be good. The company returns more cash to shareholders, does buybacks, does dividends, whatever it is, that's the way that's what you sign up for when you go into a capitalist system. Now the whole capitalist system is under assault from these DSA nut jobs. So just a bad guy not understanding.
Becky Quick
What do you think the profit margins are for ExxonMobil?
Joe Kernan
I don't think they're exorbitant.
Becky Quick
Probably 8.8%.
Joe Kernan
Right.
Becky Quick
Okay. What do you think the profit margins are for Nvidia?
Joe Kernan
88.8.
Becky Quick
Well, right now it says 63, but I think you're right. I've heard profit margins above 80% for some of these companies.
Joe Kernan
So on a lot, none of it makes sense. On, you know what, does anything that's really populous ever make sense on a logical basis?
Becky Quick
No, but they are the issues that hit voters the most. Whether it's the gas you're paying at the pump, whether it's the medicine prices
Joe Kernan
that you have to choice.
Becky Quick
Those are the issues that hit.
Joe Kernan
You have a choice of either pushing back and explaining it or just going ahead with it and realizing that that's what elections are based on. I guess it's a world that I criticize the other side enough
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for it.
Joe Kernan
So I can't just say, oh, well, in this case it makes sense.
Becky Quick
No, it's like it's.
Joe Kernan
I'd like to.
Becky Quick
But again, if you, if you push back too hard on these companies and they. They slow their production or they slow their refining cap, what if they do
Joe Kernan
return it to shareholders? Shareholders are the ones that when, you know, when climate activists want to shut down they or you know, block the entrance to a fossil fuel company. You know, you risk your money and if it works out, that's the way it works and your rewards.
Becky Quick
And you want those shareholders risking that money so that you can in turn
Joe Kernan
exactly instead of having the government the higher rate, you want the government running too.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Cheese will be next.
Squawk Pod Host
Coming up on Squawk Pod, a newsmaking conversation with the Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, the yen oil prices and the Fed leadership under new chairman Kevin Warsh.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
I think every meeting should be live and that market participants should make their own judgments.
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Trading at Schwab is now powered by Ameritrade, bringing you an expanding library of education with even more ways to sharpen your trading skills. Access new online courses, insightful webcasts, articles, engaging videos and more, all curated just for traders. Plus guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests. And no sifting to find exactly what you need so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly.
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Becky Quick
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Squawk Pod Host
Welcome back to Squawk Pod from cnbc, a split show today between the NASDAQ market in Times Square and the Rocky Mountains.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Hey guys, it is just past 7am on the east Coast. I'm in Aspen, Colorado, where it is 5am you're watching Squawk Box right here on CNBC. I'm Andrew Ossorkin along with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick. As I mentioned, I'm in Colorado today at the annual Aspen Economic Strategy Group meeting. We've got a huge lineup, guys, of folks that we're going to be talking to here today and tomorrow. I was at dinner last night. Jay Powell is here, Jonathan Gray from, from Blackstone, John Waldron. We're going to see Janet Yellen, by the way, tomorrow on the broadcast and then also Neal Kashkari. Lots of you could describe it as nerd debates about what's happening inside the Fed.
Becky Quick
Is it cold, Andrew?
Andrew Ross Sorkin
It's actually not cold. Guys. What do we think it is here about? No 50s. We think we're in the 50s. It's been we've done this before at this hour and it has been freezing. So it's a lot better than it has been the dry cold in the past. In fact, it was in the night. It was super hot here. Yet last night people were sweating through their shirts at dinner. It was maybe like, you gotta bring
Becky Quick
layers for the mountains, right? Lots of layers.
Joe Kernan
It's great. Awesome. The US And Japan confirmed a coordinated yen buying intervention. Join us now with the details of how it came together. Treasury secretary Scott Besant. Mr. Secretary, it's good to see you
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
this morning, Joe, Always good to be with you.
Joe Kernan
You know about the yen, I guess you had some experience in the private sector, maybe from the other side of the trade at one point. Is there anyone who is as adept at working with yen? I don't know, is it manipulation? What is it support or in the last case, it wasn't support, it was actually shorting it, I think.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, Joe, I think it's important to have a framework here and just a level set here the framework begins with the strong relationship between President Trump and the Prime Minister. And I have an extremely good working relationship with my counterpart, the Finance Minister Kageyama. And you know, I have been, I've been going to Japan since I think 1989 and have more than 50 or 60 visits here. So I'm well versed. But what's important here is we've been in close contact with our Japanese allies and they are great allies in the region, both militarily and economically. And you know, we understand that they are making serious efforts to stem the substantial undervaluation in their currency. And Joe, this is more than just a market intervention that through our conversations with them, we believe that they are going to continue to put the right policies in place that will lead the yen to get back to more of a normal equilibrium price.
Joe Kernan
Yeah, I was wondering whether you've got some ideas about how Japan needs to do that because there obviously are still some problems. Rates are probably negative there with the short term rate at 1% and we think we've got it tough here. In terms of debt as a percentage, I think they're at 230% right now. That's almost hard to believe, Mr. Secretary.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, there are a lot of ways of counting it because much of it is held by Japanese citizens and by their pension system. So, you know, I think if you net it down, it doesn't look like that. And the other thing too is, look, they're moving toward budget discipline. They're going to have a primary surplus for the first time. And Joe, you know, if I put on my economic historian hat and look back that I. In the late 90s, 97, 98, the Asian financial crisis, in my opinion, part of it was triggered by an overly weak yen. So I think a stable yen is not only important for the US but it's very important for the entire region because if the yen were to weaken substantially, then the other currencies would follow it. You know, we'd seen excess volatility in the Korean yuan. Many people believe that the Chinese RMB is undervalued. So give it. Given the trade flows, given the size of the economy, given their contribution to the global savings market, very important to have a stable yen that the Japanese government understands that and we are proud to stand with them in implementing their policies and help them stabilize the region.
Joe Kernan
It's obviously that for a lot of reasons, it's probably in the United States best entrance that we don't see a run on the, or a continued run on the yen. I just Got to ask you, you're a sly dog when you wrote that down by 5 to 10 billion and the printing looked so big. You've done this before, haven't you where you know, people are looking over your shoulder, you know, did you need to be reminded of things to do by 10 to billion 5 to 10 billion in yen. Tell me what was really going on there the second.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, I just wanted to make sure that all the reporters looking on over my shoulder also knew the symbol JPY for the Japanese yen. So
Becky Quick
okay, instead of shorthand to yourself.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Yeah, you know, I was going to finish the list. You know, the rest of the list was, you know, like go, go and have lunch with the Supreme Leader, play tennis with Putin, you know. But I thought I would just leave it at the buy 5 to 10 billion of Japanese yen.
Joe Kernan
Well, it's got a much better chance a coordinated probably intervention because Japan blew through about, I don't know how much did they, did they blow through in April and May that didn't really stem the decline. And speculators are on notice now. If they lean too, too hard on, on the carry trade, they're going to get it handed to them. That's part of the rationale, I guess.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well Joe, you know, I think in 2011, 2012 when the, when the yen which was substantially overvalued at that point it was, you know, about 78. Yep. The even then and pre Abenomics that the yen was bouncing around 78 to 82 and at the end of you can give market signals with intervention but it's policy that turns it. So it was the beginning of Abenomics. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe it's been a resounding success. Japan has come out of deflation and they're back. And I think here we can give market signals but at the end of the day it's going to be policy and fundamentals. And the US decided to join because we are very optimistic on their policy path.
Becky Quick
Would it also require a rate hike by the bank of Japan, do you think?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
I think that the policy path. I'm not going to prejudge what the BOJ should do. I've known Governor Ueda for more than 15 years and I believe that he will do what is needed. And you know, I think that the Prime Minister who is doing a fantastic job and you know, if we look back, one of the little notice things in Abenomics was something called womenomics. Japan had traditionally had a very low participation relative to Europe, relative to the US of women in the workforce. And now in Japan we have women with two of the top three jobs. But you know, it is going to require policy to follow up with the intervention, and I'm highly confident we're going to see that.
Joe Kernan
Guess one thing we definitely don't want to is Japan selling treasuries to do this. So you have encouraged the Federal Reserve to upsize. Can we call it a femarf? Is there an acronym for this? The Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo facility. Have you ever called it a femarf? Can I coin that? Can I trademark that?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Sorry, Joe. A day late and a yen short. It's called the FEMA facility. And the. We'll give you something. We'll come up with something for you next time. And look what the facilities that the Federal Reserve has. Whether it's the FEMA facility or the swap lines, the purpose is to protect the US economy and to keep any volatility offshore, prevent it from happening before it reaches our US shores. And the FEMA facility was done in 2020. Size of the bond market was much smaller then. So now I think it would be reasonable for the Fed to consider upsizing the facility. I'm happy that the Japanese government wants to use it and draw on it. And it's a completely secure lending facility. We have swap lines outstanding. So it's really no different than a swap line that the country post collateral and we lend them the money to intervene in this case. And I think it is a very robust facility and I think it was set up for occasions just like this.
Becky Quick
Mr. Secretary, you spoke about this as kind of a currency intervention, as diplomacy, because we have a close relationship with Japan because we're trying to work with them on a lot of things. But the Treasury Department actually sold euros to buy those yen. The sale of the euros. Is that kind of collateral damage in this, or was there diplomacy that was at work there too for partners we may not be as happy with lately?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
No. The Europeans obviously in close contact with our European partners, including at the Central bank, including some of the finance ministers of the nation states. And I assured them that it was just a reallocation of. Of our reserves. Seems to me that the euro is much closer to an equilibrium price. I'm not going to talk about where the euro should or should not trade, but it's really the substantial undervaluation of the yen here and the policies that the Takechi government is putting in place to change that.
Becky Quick
The idea of the carry trade, obviously you're protecting against people relying on the carrying trade too. Heavily. Do you think it would be a bad thing if the carry trade went away entirely or does it depend on if that's an orderly move?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, I don't think the carry trade is ever going to go away entirely. Japan has a gigantic surplus of foreign assets and they provide liquidity to the rest of the world. Japan Inc. Since 70s, 80s, all through the 90s up until now has accumulated substantial overseas assets and I see no reason for that to stop. And it's just the level of the yen that could trigger other problems or trigger competitive devaluations, which is unhealthy.
Joe Kernan
A lot of things making it sort of tough on Japan right now. Mr. Secretary, I'm just wondering whether just purely fiscal and even monetary changes can really help. I mean, there's a lot of capital inflow. It's good for us, AI. All the money's coming here around the world because this is where the returns are in AI. You know, the war in Iran. They're importers of energy in Japan. I mean, it's just what's the Shakespeare quote, how all occasion doth inform against us. It just seems like one thing after another has put additional pressure. Could, could they raise rates like they should? Could they end qe or would that just compound their problems?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, let's unpack there, Joe. So let's start with in my ex post over the weekend, I said I believe the Japanese government understands that we're at the end of Abenomics or one phase of it, and now we're in the implementation stage. It has been wildly successful in reflating the Japanese economy, normalizing the economy, bringing them out of deflation. And I think now we're going to see strong, strong growth. They've had strong wage growth. The economy is quite strong. Japan's tech sector, while it doesn't match the US Is very, very strong. Japan, Korea, two of the strongest in the world. And then when you talk about the energy price, Japan is a substantial importer of energy from the Gulf. And we've seen President Trump last week threatened what would have been one of the largest military campaigns or the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians. And now we are, because of that, we are in talks with the Iranians. And I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict. And that's because their air force is wiped out, their navy is wiped out, substantial portion of their missiles are wiped out. More importantly, their missile production capability is wiped out. So, you know, anything that happens in the Gulf will benefit Japan and indeed the rest of the world. Joe.
Becky Quick
Just to Clarify on that, Mr. Secretary, the idea of having a deal today or tomorrow to reopen the Strait, would that be reopening the strait but the Iranians somehow having the ability to charge a toll on that, or would that be reopening the strait and it's free and clear and anybody can move through?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
I think it would be freedom of movement. And even though things are still a little dicey there, over the past few days, we've saw quite a few ships coming out even now. So, you know, I'd expect the energy prices to settle back down, which as I said, will be good for the entire world. And you know, once the strait reopens, there are, you know, hundreds, if not a thousand ships sitting in there waiting to go out. And you know, Becky, it's not just energy. It's fertilizer, it's refined products, it is the various industrial gases. So you know, I think that we could see a big relief trade as those prices go down.
Becky Quick
In fact, as you've been speaking, Mr. Mr. Secretary, the WTI price is dropping. We were looking at oil 82 at 82 earlier, earlier this morning. Now it's trading at about 78. I guess you watch those levels pretty closely. What do you watch on a daily basis? Is it oil? Is it the 10 year, is it the 30 year, the 2 year? Is it the yen? What are the things that you're watching most closely?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
All the above, Becky. But you know what I really watch is how the US economy is doing. And the economic numbers have been strong. We had manufacturing ESM strongest since 2022 when we came out of COVID And manufacturing is back in the US we are seeing substantial non residential building going on. So those are construction jobs with overall manufacturing. If I look at my hometown, Charleston, South Carolina, Boeing is doing a 50% increase in their production there. So those are construction jobs. But those are going to morph into 1000 great high paying industrial jobs. So, you know, we're seeing this manufacturing renaissance happen.
Joe Kernan
You know what wouldn't help the yen is if Warsh and co raised rates in September. I just wonder whether that should we be thinking, should we be thinking about that and just opine on what you saw at the last meeting. The lack of, you know, the lack of any sort of guidance and the criticism about no transparency. And we don't know what the roadmaps are and we don't, we don't need a cheat sheet on the test, but we need to know what's going to be covered in the test and it's causing volatility in the bond market because of a 13 basis point move. What do you make of all that?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Secretary well, Joe, you know, I think of this as a detox that the both the financial markets, financial journalists, no one on this screen but many others, especially. In print, had just become stenographers and same for many of the Wall street firms. Look, I began with Wall Street 1984 and you never knew what the Fed was going to do and had to be positioned accordingly and you actually had to do your own work. And you know, I think we are seeing a detox here and you know, all this with forward guidance that you know, I think every meeting should be live and that market participants should make their own judgments because I can tell you in my opinion what caused the great inflation. The Fed was late raising rates, but the reason they were late raising rates is that November of 21st it was clear that the economy was hot and the Fed needed to do something, but they kept QE going until the month before they started hiking rates. So they were buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds and they that was because they felt locked in with forward guidance. So I think Chair Warship wants to maintain optionality for optimal outcomes and I am sure that under his leadership, the Fed will balance between their growth mandate and their inflation mandate.
Joe Kernan
There is a lot of question though of how to orchestrate a stand pat on rates for the chairman with the economy you described. I mean if you back out all the imports of infrastructure for AI, what's that other, that other number was 3.9 or something I think wasn't it for, for prices large, I mean that's strong inflation still above target. Will the promise of AI in terms of productivity, will that arrive quickly enough for, for Chair Walsh to bring down the inflation rate in a way other than trying to slow the economy with higher rates?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, I think we have to look and think what does an increase in the short term rate actually do? So so we'll, we'll see on that. But the other thing too is I think that there are a lot of short term indicators here, much of it energy related that will work its way through the system. When energy when we had the MOU with the Iranians in early June, from June for the June inflation numbers, we saw one of the biggest drops in years. So you know, there's a very noisy component in there. But what, what gives me the confidence is that the underlying numbers they are very tame. So core, core inflation away from the fast moving segments that are impacted by energy have been very quiescent and I think we're going to continue to see that.
Becky Quick
Secretary Bessant just we've been watching the AI trade so closely and there are some people, including Steve Eisman who was with us last week, who said he thinks everything is an AI trade right now and that's either going to go very well or very badly, depending on how that shakes out.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Oh, I think it's all one trade.
Becky Quick
So if this is a binary situation where AI succeeds and the market continues to push higher and higher, what happens if AI doesn't succeed?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
I think we have a big correction.
Becky Quick
How big?
Commercial Announcer
Now that's a hard question.
Becky Quick
He related it through to companies even like a caterpillar, which by the way is up more than 8% this morning on stronger than anticipated earnings. But it's been down over the last month as people worried about whether the AI trade could continue. Everything in AI is related pretty closely to interest rates. If interest rates rise and it's harder to get debt or it's more expensive to get debt as a result and that data boom and the rest of it kind of slows down, do you think that impacts the overall economy in a big way or do you think that's more of a market play?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, Becky, we've seen interest rate rise and we've seen no let up in this AI capex. And look, I like Steve, but I think that category, category to categorically say that everything's an AI trade is an incomplete thought that I think the underlying dynamics of the economy are very strong. And one thing that is very interesting to me is we are seeing this small business formation and we can see it as we talk to the nation's banks, as we see the filings at the IRS and for new startups we are seeing like this big Main street and small business revival. And I think a lot of that may be due to AI. Wall Street Journal had an interesting story, I believe it was last week or the week before that said you're seeing the rise of the one person startup and a lot of that is AI enabled. And the professor from Notre Dame was talking about what we're seeing in terms of AI implementation. And I'm old enough to remember what happened in the 90s when we saw the office tech boom and you saw this whole cottage industry spring up that didn't previously exist. I think they were called system integrators and they were bringing the office modernization Revolution into both small, medium and large businesses. And I would expect we could see a boom in that over the coming years. So, you know, but on the other side we are seeing the rest of the economy is performing very well.
Joe Kernan
Also, you know, the ISM and I mean the stock market, obviously inflation is still one of the things that especially during a war with a closed strait, at least as of the day, is still something that if they, if there is anything that we're going to be a bump in the road, it still worries about inflation. Are there indications to you that the underlying problem with shelter or with services or with wages, are there signs that maybe the good numbers we just saw on the past reports, will that continue even though oil's back up and give chair War some leeway in September?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, again, I don't think that chair Wash or indeed the overall fomc. You got to remember when they raise rates here, if they raise rates, they're looking at long and variable lead times. So they've got to be thinking what, what's going on 9, 12, 18 months out. And I do think that there are a lot of things going on there. You know, we're, we're seeing shelter owner's equivalent rent rents come down and that's where core inflation is. And the media doesn't want to report it. But President Trump has done it again, same as he did in his first term. In the President's first term, hourly workers did better than supervisory workers. And now what we're seeing now is the bottom quartile of wage earners have had year over year 5.5% wage gains. And that's three times more than the top quartile. So look, this inflation and this affordability crisis that the Biden era got us, this big increase in our step function increase in price levels. There are two ways to combat that. There's, you can slow the inflation, which I do believe the core inflation is slowing. But for working Americans, real wage gains and you know, we can see that the bottom 25% of workers had a 2% wage gain. And with everything that we're seeing in the media, it's difficult to discern. But we think that the American people will be feeling that over time. And they're also feeling the benefits of the working families tax cuts. I'm, they also oversee the IRS. And 44% of American households had one of the President's signature policies, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, reduced taxes for seniors on Social Security and deductibility of auto loans. So we are starting to see. I got sick of hearing about this K shaped economy. I can say here definitively the K shaped economy is over and we're seeing more of a C economy where the lower end of wage earners are finally calling it back just like they did in President Trump's first term.
Joe Kernan
Before we let you go, just to return to the yen one more time, have you written anything down while we're talking, like I'm good for another, another 10 if necessary or, or tell the Fed to, to, to increase the fee marf. I'm calling it the female. I don't like your. Your female. But rarely in the past does one or two interventions solve the problem. If the, if the underlying problems aren't like if they don't raise rates in Japan, we may need to put more. Are you willing to. Are we willing to do more?
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
We're in close, close contact and you got to think that the US would not have joined if we were not very, very optimistic about the policies that the Takahichi government's going to implement. And I think they well understand what needs to be done here and they're getting out of this vicious cycle because. Do they have an inflation problem? Yes. Is part of the inflation problem due to the weekend because of the pass through? Yes. So one of the ways to give self help as they've been doing, is to stop this excess volatility in the yen. And we're in constant communication with them and we will do whatever it takes to support them in a way that helps the American economy, the American taxpayer and stabilizes the global economy.
Joe Kernan
Just wondering if there's a crush like behind you of reporters when they're sitting there, you know, for person to get the best seat.
Becky Quick
Yeah. To check out the to do list.
Joe Kernan
To check out the to do list.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Well, I can tell them what's on my to do list. It's get to the grocery store this evening.
Joe Kernan
I haven't been in a while. I know you probably have a lot of other things to do and we appreciate all your time this morning. Mr. Secretary, as usual. Thanks. Thank you.
Scott Bessant (Treasury Secretary)
Good to see both of you.
Joe Kernan
Okay.
Becky Quick
Hey. Very quickly, let's take a look at some of the board's oils. Oil moved pretty drastically on what the secretary was saying. He said that we could see an opening. He believes we'll see a deal potentially today or tomorrow to reopen the strait as a result. Take a look at oil prices WTI moving pretty rapidly. We had been at $82 a barrel earlier this morning. At the top of that interview, we were trading at $80 a barrel. Now it's off by $3.55 to 76 79. That in turn has impacted the futures pretty rapidly as well. The Dow was up by about 300% points earlier this morning. Now you're looking at the dow up by 513 points. S& P had been negative, it's now indicated up by about five points. And the Nasdaq is up even more than it had been earlier at 227 points. You've also got treasury yields that moved on this the 30 year in particular. We were looking at a 30 to 30 year yield of 525 when the show began at 6am it's now trading at 521 and in fact the entire complex had been yielding higher. It's now lower across the board. The 10 year is at 465 and the two year is at 422.
Joe Kernan
How's the Dow?
Becky Quick
Dow's up 500 points. It was up 300 before.
Joe Kernan
Yeah, I saw that. I saw it was up 500. No, again.
Squawk Pod Host
Coming up next, shares of Snap are riding an earnings wave. CEO Evan Spiegel is in Aspen with Andrew Ross Sorkin and he's betting on his own product innovations.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
We've been working for more than 12 years to reinvent the computer and make it feel more human. I think today people are spending more than seven hours on average staring at screens. Specs represent the opportunity to bring computing into the world.
Squawk Pod Host
The specs on specs right after this.
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Becky Quick
I have no fear of failure.
Joe Kernan
Trailblazing women, changing the game One of
Becky Quick
my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs.
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Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta
Becky Quick
think big to accomplish big things.
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Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts, you're listening to Squawk Pod. Here's Andrew Ross Sorkin in the mountains at the annual Aspen Economic Strategy Group meeting.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
We are in Aspen, Colorado. Social media company snap reporting Q2 results after the bell on Monday. They scored an earnings beat with $1.6 billion in revenue. It's 19% higher than just one year ago. And joining us right now for more, SNAP CEO Evan Spiegel. He did not bring his glasses on the set, but we're going to talk about those glasses in just a minute because I think that's been a big part of the story. But you beat across the board, not just by the way on the revenue piece, but on the margin piece, which is what I think the market was actually looking for.
Joe Kernan
Yeah.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, first of all, thanks so much for having me on, Andrew. Such a beautiful morning here in Aspen. It was a great quarter for Snap. And I think what folks are seeing is that the free cash flow in the business is really starting to inflect, which is allowing us to offset dilution, to strengthen our balance sheet and of course, to continue investing in the future, which is so important to us.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Okay, let's talk about the future because there's a couple of different pieces of that story. I mentioned, glasses. We'll get there in a second. I think glasses is actually what's had people a little anxious more than anything. But there's the advertising piece of the business and increasingly there's the subscription piece of the business, which I don't know if people appreciate. Only 3% of your users are paying money to subscribe now, but that seems to be a huge growing piece of the business.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Yeah, advertising growth accelerated really nicely in the quarter. And I think one of the most important inputs, which are conversions across the platform. You know, we've invested so much in driving better lower funnel performance for advertisers. We saw conversion growth of 56% year over year. And so I think that's a really strong leading input into the business because it shows we're using our inventory a lot more efficiently in terms of the direct revenue business. That's a huge growth opportunity for us. It was more than 300 million in revenue in the quarter. It's growing about 85% year over year.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
So if 3% of your users are paying, and by the way, what do they get to pay? If you're a paying customer, what do you get?
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Yeah, less than 3% today, but it's across things like our Snapchat+ subscription product. We just released a new subscription business called Lens, which provides access to AI powered creative tools that's been really successful and that's a slightly higher ARPU product and been driving some nice growth for us.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Okay, so what would you like to see that number get to? You said three. If you said it's just under 3% now, we're sitting together. In a year from now, what do you think it could be?
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, you know, as we look at the competitive set over the long term, it seems like they're able to convert about 7 to 12% of monthly active users to paying subscribers. We've got about 970 million monthly active users. So, you know, maybe a medium term goal would be about 7% of that.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Okay, I mentioned glasses because that's a huge part of the story. And it's, I think, your true love here to try to like create the next operating system, the next hardware, the next everything. These glasses cost what, 20, about 2200 bucks right now? 2100 bucks is what they're going to come in.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
195.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Okay. So the question I keep thinking about is how quickly those can come to market. In a way, at a, in a way and at a price point that people buy them, you know, en masse and how you think about the competition coming from whatever you think Apple is ultimately going to create, where everything Google is working on and whatever you think Meta is going to do next.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, we've been working for more than 12 years to reinvent the computer and make it feel more human. I think today people are spending more than seven hours on average staring at screens. Specs represent the opportunity to bring computing into the world, to make it a shared experience and ultimately to help bring all the productivity gains we saw in desktop computing and laptop computing to the real world and to real world jobs, which is the vast majority of jobs, about 60% of jobs. So I think this computing transformation is incredibly exciting. We're certainly the leader in the space. I think specs are represent a totally new category.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Right.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
If you look at the landscape today, you have very bulky but capable headsets, and then you have very limited but lightweight glasses. And specs represent, you know, the capability of some of these VR headsets in terms of the immersiveness and the ability to really have a full workstation experience, but with the wearability of some of these lighter weight glasses.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
But do you say to yourself, Apple's going to come and do the same thing and that is going to go. I mean, so how do you think about that given the cost of putting this all out there and the amount of money that some of these big companies can actually throw at this?
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Yeah, well, I think, you know, as we look at the history of innovation, I actually think one of the things that helps power innovation are constraints. Right. And one of the things that makes Snap so unique is that we've been so laser focused on specs for such a long period of time. So I think this focus, our history of innovation, you know, and our first mover advantage in the space, backed by our augmented reality platform, which already has hundreds of thousands of developers who build millions of lenses, gives us a real ecosystem advantage.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
You're here hanging out with people like Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner and all sorts of other economists and folks. I'm curious what you think and what you're actually seeing in the economy. The Treasury Secretary was on earlier and he said, you know, it's really not a K shaped economy anymore, it's a C shaped economy. Are you of the, are you of the sense that things are getting a lot better, they're a lot worse, we're in an AI bubble, We're not. What are you actually think yourself?
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, I think it's pretty important to sort of look at the changes happening with AI sort of separately from, you know, the broader economy. I think the economy is stronger than I would have expected, frankly. There's a lot of geopolitical instability, there's a lot of fiscal instability. And I think those are big risks sort of overhanging the market in general. But it's in the United States, it's been a lot more resilient than I would have expected. I think, you know, as I look at the transformation and the investment that's happening there, the big questions in my mind are, you know, is the long term revenue there to support the CapEx assumptions? And then, you know, when you sort of break down the CapEx growth, are folks really building out more capacity or are they just paying more for, you know, the capacity they already plan to build? And so I do think that, you know, we need to sort of see over the coming years, how does demand mature?
Andrew Ross Sorkin
What do you think of that? What is your answer to that, that question you're asking? No, it's, that is the central question
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, I think to me what I'd really like to see looking forward is what sorts of new businesses and new products will be built on top of this technology. Right. If we look at, you know, for the railroads, for example, it was really the oil business that leveraged the railroads to grow and become far bigger than the railroad business itself. Obviously electrification, transform manufacturing. So what I'm really looking for are those sort of leading signs of, you know, what are the new consumer products that are being invented, what are the new experiences that are going to drive more demand for?
Andrew Ross Sorkin
The reason I ask is, you know, I think last week when Google announced its earnings, or maybe two weeks ago now, it's really the first time that the market actually said we actually think you're spending too much. And it was an interesting moment. And I wonder just about the dynamics in the business right now between open weight models and close weight models, whether we think that's actually going to break the economics of the business. You have anthropic and OpenAI, which are so much, I mean, sort of like they are the support of all this. If you believe in their valuations, you believe in everybody else's valuations. If you don't believe in their valuations, I don't know if the whole thing breaks apart.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, I think fundamentally we want to see pricing come down and performance improve so that I can permeate the economy and drive the productivity benefits that we really want to see. Right. That I think will lift growth overall. So, so I think that is a good sign that we are seeing real progress there, that, you know, token consumption is reducing while performance improves. So, so ultimately, you know, looking forward, it's hard to say how that demand will materialize over the long term. But that's why I think one of the leading indicators will be what sorts of new products, services and businesses are being built on top of this technology.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Have you. Okay, that's the big last final question, which is is there a product you have seen yet built with AI that has sort of broken the mold for you?
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Well, I think as we look at our long term vision for computing, that's really what specs represent, right? A new type of operating system, we call it an intelligent system that lives in the world with you and helps you get things done and help you, helps you get ahead on a day to day basis. And so if we move to a world where your primary usage of your computer is actually accessing intelligence, that could drive the sort of demand growth that could sustain the revenue projections that people have.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Claude chatgpt Gemini or Xai? What are you using?
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
All of the above.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
All of the above. Evan, thank you. Appreciate it. It's good to see you.
Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO)
Thanks so much. Great to see you.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Very good political answer.
Squawk Pod Host
And that is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for listening. Squawkbox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Please, please follow Squawkpod wherever you get your podcasts. We will meet you right back here tomorrow.
Joe Kernan
We are clear.
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Thanks guys.
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This episode of Squawk Pod dives into two headline-making interviews: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant discussing the historic U.S.-Japan currency intervention and the prospects for a critical deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Snap CEO Evan Spiegel on Snap’s Q2 results and the future of augmented reality. The episode offers deep insight into global economic diplomacy, the state of financial markets, policy shifts amid global tensions, and the evolving opportunity—and risks—of AI in business.
(Interview starts [15:15])
Notable Quotes from the Treasury Secretary Interview
On the U.S.-Japan partnership
“We are proud to stand with [Japan] in implementing their policies and help them stabilize the region.”
— Scott Bessant ([17:20])
On market intervention vs. policy
“At the end of the day, it’s going to be policy and fundamentals.”
— Scott Bessant ([20:14])
On forward guidance and Fed transparency
“I think every meeting should be live and that market participants should make their own judgments.”
— Scott Bessant ([31:08])
On the Iran deal
“I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”
— Scott Bessant ([27:10])
On the AI market
“I think it's all one trade.”
— Scott Bessant ([34:46])
On the labor market and Biden v. Trump era
“The K shaped economy is over and we're seeing more of a C economy...”
— Scott Bessant ([40:31])
Q2 earnings beat: $1.6 billion revenue (+19%), free cash flow inflection ([45:52]–[46:21]).
Evan Spiegel discusses the long-term vision for “Specs”—augmented reality glasses:
“We’ve been working for more than 12 years to reinvent the computer and make it feel more human. Specs represent the opportunity to bring computing into the world.” ([48:45])
Competing with giants:
“Our history of innovation, and our first mover advantage...gives us a real ecosystem advantage.” ([49:46])
Spiegel: “The big questions in my mind are...is the long term revenue there to support the CapEx assumptions?” “What I'm really looking for are those sort of leading signs...what are the new consumer products that are being invented?” ([51:25])
On glasses and innovation
“Specs represent the opportunity to bring computing into the world, to make it a shared experience and ultimately to help bring all the productivity gains...to the real world and to real world jobs...”
— Evan Spiegel ([48:45])
On the product future of AI
“What I'm really looking for are those leading signs of what are the new consumer products...the new experiences that are going to drive more demand?”
— Evan Spiegel ([51:25])
On using leading AI models
“Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, or xAI?”
“All of the above.”
— Andrew Ross Sorkin & Evan Spiegel ([53:26])
Bessant’s To-Do List Humor
Ongoing Real-Time Market Moves
AI Trade Is ‘All One Trade’
This Squawk Pod episode provides a vivid inside look at how high-level financial diplomacy and technology transformation shape markets and policy. Treasury Secretary Bessant gives listeners a measured but optimistic take on U.S.-Japan ties, strategic FX intervention, a realistic—possibly imminent—deal with Iran that promises global market relief, and nuanced views on inflation and AI. Snap CEO Evan Spiegel rounds out the conversation, offering a startup innovator’s perspective on transforming computing, leveraging AI, and navigating a shifting business landscape buffeted by both opportunity and risk.
A must-listen for anyone seeking to understand the intersection of geopolitics, fiscal policy, tech disruption, and the evolving rhythms of Wall Street.