Squawk Pod (11/25/25): Treasury Secretary Bessent, the Future of Democrats, & ‘Embrace Rage’

Overview

This episode of Squawk Pod delivers a packed agenda focused on international relations, monetary policy, local politics, artificial intelligence, and the internal conflict within the Democratic Party. Key voices include Treasury Secretary Scott Besant on the evolving U.S.-China dynamic and monetary policy, plus longtime Democratic adviser James Carville advocating for economic anger and political clarity. Notable recurring themes are the intersection of AI and markets, New York politics, and rising concerns about affordability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tech & Market Moves: Alphabet, Nvidia, and the AI Arms Race

Segment Timestamps: 02:35–07:27

• Alphabet’s surge: Shares rose 4% after a 6% gain the previous day, nearing a $4 trillion market cap. Optimism surrounds its updated Gemini AI model and Google’s AI chips (TPUs).
• The “chip wars”: Reports that Meta is in talks with Google to buy its AI chips directly could disrupt Nvidia’s dominance and change the AI infrastructure landscape. Nvidia shares fell 4%.
• Competitive pressure: Other tech giants have tried to make in-house chips, but Alphabet/Google is the first to rival Nvidia’s scale and success.
• Personalizing AI: Andrew Ross Sorkin compares different LLMs (like Gemini vs. ChatGPT), suggesting that AI relationships could become more “personal”—and even jokes about “dating” AIs.

Memorable Exchange:

• Andrew Ross Sorkin: “It for me is better at doing certain things, but it doesn’t know me as well as ChatGPT does, just because I’ve been on ChatGPT religiously for so long now...” (06:19)
• Joe Kernan, joking: “So you’re married and off the market?” (06:51)
• Sorkin: “I don’t know if I’m married and off the market because I might have... found, you know, a better date.” (06:58)

2. US-China Relations & Soybean Tariffs: Interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Besant

Segment Timestamps: 15:37–31:24

• US-China phone diplomacy: President Trump spoke with President Xi Jinping. Key issues: Russia-Ukraine, soybeans, and Taiwan. Both agreed to multiple meetings in 2026 for "stability."
• On Soybeans: China is keeping up with its commitment to buy 87.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over 3.5 years. Besant, himself a soybean farmer, emphasizes the deal’s steadiness.
  • Scott Besant: “...the Chinese are right on schedule in terms of the cadence of their purchases.” (13:27, 16:25)
• On Taiwan & Ukraine: US policy remains unchanged; both leaders agree on seeking peace in the Ukraine conflict.
  • Besant: “We’re always going to be rivals. That’s natural. But are there things we can do together? Yes, we have the relationship in a good place.” (01:17, 17:44)
• Trade stability: Besant highlights the value in leaders meeting frequently to “give the relationship great stability.” (17:44)
• On the Federal Reserve: Five candidates are in the running for Fed Chair. The process weighs candidates' understanding of the Fed’s complex modern role:
  • Besant: “The Fed has become this very complicated operation. It’s no longer just a price setting of money.” (19:15)
  • Announcement possible before Christmas (20:35).
• On Fed Policy and Politics: Besant advocates for the Fed to become “background” instead of dominating headlines, and criticizes the growing distance of regional Fed bank presidents from their districts.
• Interest rates & economy: Besant argues for lower rates, referencing negative GDP impact from this year’s government shutdown. He sees historical productivity gains (likening now to the 1990s) allowing for “lower interest rates, higher growth, and higher productivity.” (29:52)
• On New York’s New Mayor & Democratic Policy: Besant praises Zohran Mamdani’s political campaign but is skeptical of “old ideas that have never worked,” calling him “the leader of the Democratic Party now.” (26:00)

3. Shifts in New York City Politics

Segment Timestamps: 08:43–13:16

• Transition team dynamics: Newly elected Mayor Zohran Mamdani is appointing business leaders, including former Partnership for New York City president Katherine Wild, to city economic advisory roles—a surprising move given earlier skepticism from the business community.
• Hosts express hope that business voices will influence policy but uncertainty about the administration’s willingness to be flexible.

Key Quote:

• Joe Kernan: “You want voices from business who have some input... My hope is that Kathy and the other people will speak pretty plainly about what needs to happen from the businesses’ perspectives in New York City.” (10:16)

4. The Future of the Democratic Party: James Carville Calls for ‘Economic Rage’

Segment Timestamps: 33:34–43:09

• Main argument: In a time of high economic anxiety and “affordability” crises, Carville advocates for Democrats to “embrace rage” and confront economic disparities head-on.
  • Carville: “I think US Capitalism needs an intervention because it’s... producing wealth, but the wealth is all going in one place and that’s not to a lot of people.” (01:53, 34:15)
• Internal split: He notes the spectrum from capitalists to socialists within the Democratic party, referencing debates over whether to push supply (market) solutions vs. rent control/stabilization.
• on Minimum Wage & Wages: Carville pushes for raising the minimum wage and reforming the tax code to incentivize higher wages.
  • Carville: “If prices go up 3% a year and your salary goes up 1%, it’s not doing you any good. And we should... do something about the minimum wage.” (36:59)
• No current party leader: Carville stresses that only a presidential nominee can define the party's direction.
  • Carville: “We're not going to have a leader until we have a presidential nominee.” (31:47, 38:23)
• On taxes: He proposes a return to the 1990s 39.5% top federal tax rate, calling it both pragmatic and moral.
  • Carville: “Raising taxes on high income people to a rate of 40% is not only the economically wise thing to do, it’s the moral thing to do.” (40:36)
• “Let the rich leave”: Of high earners who threaten to move, Carville shrugs: “If...40% is too much, go, go to Switzerland.” (41:41)
• Carried interest targeted: Both Carville and Sorkin decry the tax treatment of carried interest as immoral and overdue for reform.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI’s personal touch:
  Andrew Ross Sorkin: “Some of these dates may know you a little bit better and you may like that more. I don’t know. We’ll see. This is a bad analogy. I should probably stop right now. I’m married.” (07:15)
• On America’s economic crossroads:
  Scott Besant: “This is pass fail that if we don’t maintain our AI leadership then everything else we’re doing will be put to aside.” (29:52)
• On Democratic strategy:
  James Carville: “You just got to win elections. But we’re not going to have a leader until we have a presidential nominee.” (31:47, 38:23)
• On tax morality:
  Carville: “If you can’t live in a country with a 40% tax rate on come above a half million dollars, then go, dude, we don’t need you.” (41:41)
• TV business critique:
  Joe Kernan, on Fed speeches: “Why don’t they actually just come out and talk about the, you know, meaningful issues in the American people rather than a short term view of the next meeting?” (21:00)

Important Timestamps

• Tech & Markets:
  • 02:35–07:27 Alphabet, Nvidia, AI market analysis
• US-China Relations & Trade:
  • 15:37–31:24 Treasury Secretary Besant interview (includes Fed discussion and New York City politics)
• NYC Mayoral Transition:
  • 08:43–13:16 Katherine Wild, business involvement in Mamdani administration
• Democratic Party & Economic Messaging:
  • 33:34–43:09 James Carville interview

Tone & Style

The discussion oscillates between light-hearted banter (mostly on tech and personal AI assistant analogies) and high-stakes, urgent political commentary—especially around international relations, monetary policy decisions, and domestic economic pain points. Carville’s tone is fiery, urgent, and unsparing in its critique of both capitalism’s excesses and Democratic Party hesitancy. Besant, characteristically measured, provides insider context on economic policy, but pulls no punches on criticizing operational drift at the Fed and in Democratic leadership.

Summary Takeaways

• The accelerating competition in AI is not only transforming markets, but also affecting global business strategy and investor sentiment.
• US-China relations remain ambivalent yet stable, with agriculture, tariffs, and Taiwan at the forefront.
• The evolving power dynamic in New York City politics signals uneasy alliances between business and new left-leaning leadership.
• Within the Democratic Party, James Carville’s call for economic “rage” and focus on fairness marks a clear pivot towards emotional as well as policy-driven appeals, as the party seeks its post-election footing.
• Across all discussions, the episode weaves together urgent economic, technological, and political themes defining 2025.