Squawk Pod Episode Summary

Episode: Venezuela’s Exodus & AI’s Power
Air Date: December 29, 2025
Hosts: Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, Leslie Picker, Mike Santoli
Guests: Michelle Caruso Cabrera (CNBC Contributor and CEO, MCC Global), Bradley Tusk (Investor, Tusk Ventures)

Overview

This episode explores two urgent and timely themes:

1. The crisis in Venezuela—mass exodus, Maduro’s grip on power, Western hemisphere security, and U.S. policy
2. The disruptive force and challenges of Artificial Intelligence—from regulation to energy needs and industry fallout

The show is anchored by lively analysis and debates, with in-depth interviews featuring Michelle Caruso Cabrera on Venezuela and Bradley Tusk on the future of AI.

Episode Breakdown

1. Markets, Metals, and Economic Sentiment

[01:54-06:30]

• Market Jitters & Santa Claus Rally:
  The hosts riff on seasonal market phenomena and the limited predictive value of the so-called Santa Claus rally.
  • “We start making all these ridiculous forecasts.” — Joe Kernan [03:49]
  • “Not much of it really is that much of a clincher of an argument one way or the other.” — Becky Quick [04:06]
• Metals Surge:
  • Silver’s surge—topping $80/oz for the first time, with a 150% rise this year.
  • Gold up 70% YTD.
• Bond Yields:
  • Ongoing debates about flatness and what yields signal about growth and inflation expectations.

2. Tariffs, Trade, and Business Environment

[06:30-07:48]

• Tariff Policy Clarity:
  • Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan notes the initial confusion surrounding Trump’s tariff rollout now replaced by some stability.
  • “It’s starting to deescalate and that you’re starting to see the resolution of the discussions.” — Joe Kernan remembering Moynihan remarks [06:48]
• Small vs. Big Business:
  • Moynihan highlights immigration and labor shortages as acute small business concerns—more so than for corporates.

3. News Highlight — Israel, Legacy Tech, and IBM

[07:48-11:18]

• President Trump & Israel:
  • Anticipation over Trump-Netanyahu meeting in Florida about Gaza peace process and Iran.
• Passing of Louis Gerstner:
  • The legacy of the late IBM CEO, credited with IBM's pivotal shift to services:
    • “IBM stock was up more than 700% during his tenure.” — Joe Kernan [09:23]
    • “Relevant now as big companies are dealing with technological productivity shifts and all the rest of it.” — Becky Quick [10:03]
• Legacy Tech & The “Mag 7”
  • Discussion on today’s tech behemoths and their ability to pivot, with skepticism about yesterday’s giants keeping pace in the AI era.

4. Venezuela Deep Dive: Migration, Authoritarianism & U.S. Policy

[16:11-24:37]

Key Points:

• Venezuela’s Exodus:

  • Over 25% of Venezuela's population (~8 million people) has fled.
    • “The cause of mass migration... more than 25% of the population of Venezuela left. That’s roughly 8 million people.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [17:11]
  • Gang activity spreading throughout the Western Hemisphere via migration.

• Maduro’s Alliances:
  “Maduro is in league with Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah, and Cuba.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [17:16]

• Drug Trade Complicity:

  • Venezuela provides cover (even if not manufacturing fentanyl) for significant drug flows.
  • “It is without a doubt that they provide cover for the export of drugs.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [18:26]

• Mismanagement of Oil Sector:

  • Production collapse predates sanctions; Chavez’s policies are fingered as root cause.
  • “It’s been complete mismanagement, which started long before the sanctions.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [21:03]

• Regional Connections (Cuba):

  • Cuba’s stability is inseparable from Venezuelan oil.
  • “Cuba survives only because of Venezuela... what I read is now it’s 30,000 barrels per day. They have terrible instability there.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [21:31]

• What Would a Transition Take?

  • The pivotal question is whether the military remains loyal to Maduro if his revenues and patronage are cut off.
  • “Maybe you do a negotiated change... the top X number of leaders got to go, they got to go into exile, whatever, and then they co-op the military... and then come up with some negotiated settlement.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [22:20]

Notable Exchange:

• “The opposition has been on a roadshow trying to prove that they can lead. They started it here in New York. I attended. They’ve got a whole PowerPoint presentation.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [20:00]
• “More prosperity, less government.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [24:11]

5. AI’s Power—Promise, Bottlenecks & Backlash

[25:09-38:33]

Regulation Landscape & Energy Demands

• Regulation Focus:

  • There are three regulatory fronts:
    1. Generative AI rules (state actions in NY and CA)
    2. Use-case bans (e.g., mental health chatbots in IL, NV)
    3. Permitting/zoning for data centers (local battles intensifying)
  • “I think we will start to see legislation all across the country that says that cities and counties cannot issue permitting to new data centers unless there is no corresponding energy cost increase for consumers.” — Bradley Tusk [31:38]

• Energy Bottleneck:

  • Explosive growth in compute needs is poised to double electricity consumption—potentially driving bills up.
  • “If energy consumption doubles... and if energy supply stays relatively flat, obviously prices go way, way up.” — Bradley Tusk [31:13]
  • Politicians will be forced to respond; local backlash is the most likely catalyst for regulatory clampdowns.

• Can Innovation Solve Power Needs?

  • Alternatives: Biocompute, inference models, nuclear microgrids.
  • “It actually forces innovation... how can we do the same sort of compute without the same sort of energy needs? Is probably to the good.” — Bradley Tusk [33:42]

• Nuclear Power as Solution:

  • “If this leads to a revolution where nuclear becomes a predominant real form of power in the United States, that’s a great thing. We’re not there right now.” — Bradley Tusk [34:50]

• Cultural Hurdles:

  • “If you were 10 years old or older when Three Mile Island happened in 1979, you’re still probably somewhat freaked out about nuclear energy.” — Bradley Tusk [34:55]

• Permitting Bottlenecks

  • Emphasis on need for YIMBY-style energy reform to accelerate new sources—just like in housing.
  • “We have a huge problem in this country on energy permitting, just like we do with building affordable housing... it makes the process so wildly slow and expensive that it becomes really hard to bring new forms of energy online.” — Bradley Tusk [35:09]

Lighter Moments

• Panel jokes about not being on Facebook and resisting “FOMO.”
  “I don’t care what other people are doing... I don’t need FOMO.” — Joe Kernan [12:41]
• Banter on movie stars:
  “Is Timothée Chalamet ever going to be Clark Gable? No. But is he a font of unbelievable talent? Yes.” — Joe Kernan [28:05]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The opposition has been on a roadshow trying to prove that they can lead. They started it here in New York. I attended. They’ve got a whole PowerPoint presentation.” — Michelle Caruso Cabrera [20:00]
• “You need vast amounts of energy... if energy consumption doubles... and if energy supply stays relatively flat, obviously prices go way, way up.” — Bradley Tusk [31:13]
• “[Energy permitting]... makes the process so wildly slow and expensive that it becomes really hard to bring new forms of energy online.” — Bradley Tusk [35:09]

Key Takeaways

• Venezuela’s collapse has sent shockwaves through the hemisphere—upending migration, exporting chaos, and tying together geopolitics, drugs, and energy. U.S. policy is both criticized and defended, with attention on the steps needed to foster real change post-Maduro, if or when his regime falls.

• AI’s advance will be limited not just by policy or innovation, but by the physics and politics of energy. Next year’s fight may be less about digital ethics and more about who pays the literal power bill—local governments being the new battleground.

• The episode is characterized by astute, sometimes raucous, debate and analysis, bridging politics, economics, and tech with personality and punch.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Markets & Metals: [01:54-06:30]
• Moynihan’s Tariff Interview & Immigration: [06:30-07:48]
• IBM Legacy & Tech Giants: [07:48-11:18]
• Venezuela & Western Hemisphere Security (Michelle Caruso Cabrera): [16:11-24:37]
• AI, Energy, and Regulation (Bradley Tusk): [25:09-38:33]

Recommended for:
Listeners wanting a brisk, insightful tour of big geopolitical and tech themes shaping 2026, blending expert interviews and zingy banter.