Joe Kernan (2:19)

Good morning and welcome. Welcome back to SquawkBox. You're probably here on Friday here on CNBC live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernan along with Leslie Picker and Mike Santoli. Becky and Andrew are off today, but we've got, we've got you covered. We go to you all the time for and we go to you, too. Maybe we can do, you know, do any banks have positions in silver, like short positions or something? That's, that's my. Haven't you heard over the years all these rumors about positions Yeah, I know, but I've heard so many J.P. morgan's doing this. This is crazy. When it went. This is like Hunt Brothers. Like, you weren't around for that.

Becky Quick (3:00)

But I mean, I was literally alive for that. But I wasn't watching the silver market too closely.

Joe Kernan (3:04)

You weren't like.

Becky Quick (3:05)

But I think that's honestly why you're.

Joe Kernan (3:07)

Like Alex P. Keaton watching silver when.

Becky Quick (3:09)

You were like 10 years old.

Leslie Picker (3:10)

Mike Santoli was, though.

Joe Kernan (3:11)

Yeah, yeah, he was.

Becky Quick (3:12)

Here's the thing. That's why you have the constant conspiracy theories.

Joe Kernan (3:16)

Yeah.

Becky Quick (3:16)

Somebody's cornering the market and that there's something not on the up and up. It's just not that big a market for JP Morgan to care that much about cornering it.

Joe Kernan (3:23)

Suddenly it was the second biggest trillion dollars. But I mean.

Becky Quick (3:26)

Yeah, you know, I think that was every.

Joe Kernan (3:29)

That was weird. But wow, it's almost as big in market cap as a former single company. It was a. I mean, Nvidia before it became Nvidia was just like a.

Becky Quick (3:41)

Kind of power in the Xbox.

Joe Kernan (3:42)

Couple of days left. This is the Santa Claus period. Right now it's the last five trading days.

Becky Quick (3:47)

Day three, day three, and then a.

Joe Kernan (3:49)

Couple in the new year where we start saying as the first hour of the first. Then you got, so goes the first day, is the first day, so goes the first week. As the first week goes, so goes the first month. And we start making all these ridiculous forecasts.

Becky Quick (4:06)

Not much of it really is that much of a clincher of an argument one way or the other. No, frankly, I mean, the Santa Claus rally, we were down last two years. You had two great years in the market that followed.

Joe Kernan (4:16)

Hmm. When was the last time?

Becky Quick (4:17)

All it was ever supposed to do was give you an early warning signal of potential difficulty in the year to come. Now you want to talk about the springtime pullback being what the negative Santa Cruz rally last year was telling you. I doubt it. So I just think we've kind of. We've combed through these things a little too.

Joe Kernan (4:34)

And when was the last time you had to rack your brains to think, was that an original afl? Well, yeah, Remember when we did that? Every year was like, it was. Do you remember? Yeah. It was an original one.

Becky Quick (4:48)

Had, you know, for example, the Kansas City Chiefs. Original afl.

Joe Kernan (4:51)

That stopped.

Becky Quick (4:52)

Yeah, right, right, right.

Joe Kernan (4:53)

That. That stopped.

Bradley Tusk (4:54)

Right.

Joe Kernan (4:54)

We don't even pay attention.

Bradley Tusk (4:55)

Right.

Becky Quick (4:56)

Because they, they work until they don't.

Joe Kernan (4:57)

Because it stopped. It stopped working. Yields I saw this morning, if you're following Those, I thought 411 on the 10 year or so where is it right now which we act like three basis point moves make it I know nothing's really for two years it's been pretty the Bond vigilantes pretty steady are you know people that want them to be back keep saying they're back but yeah they're really they maybe they should be.

Becky Quick (5:22)

I mean I think you'd have to say four and a half at minimum is that's when you're talking about okay there's something else getting priced in the long end of the curve. I don't know. Also though you talk about maybe getting a couple of rate cuts on the short end. How flat do you want the yield curve to be? Like how much do you want long term yields to go down? If you actually think you have a good growth outlook, nominal GDP is going to be pretty strong. I don't know of how much you'd expect it to go below 4% if at all. So. Well we are still watching those metals this morning. Silver topped $80 an ounce over the weekend for the first time ever. You see it is pulling back this morning it's under 75 so about 3% over the last little tracking period it was up more than 14% last week alone. For the year it is up more than 150%. Gold coming off records as well from the end of last week it is up about 70%. This year you see it's at 4481. It did have a peak above 4500 down 1.6%. Copper slightly off its all time high. Meantime platinum and palladium giving back some of Friday's big gains as well.

Leslie Picker (6:30)

And bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says most countries around the world are starting to have clarity on the tariffs they'll face when doing business with the US after initial confusion when press President Trump rolled out his tariff plans in April, Moynihan taped an interview with CBS's Face the Nation earlier this month than it aired yesterday.

Joe Kernan (6:48)

What you've seen now as time's moved on it's sort of a 15% on one side and then a higher number based on people who won't commit to purchase from the US or won't commit to lowering their non tariff barriers and things like that to go from a 10% across the board to 15% for the broad base of countries, not a huge impact. And that's where our team says it's starting to it's starting to de escalate and that you're starting to see the resolution of the discussions.

Leslie Picker (7:13)

Moynihan noted China was a special case given there are national security and rare earth mineral issues involved there. He said the president's tariff announcement back in April hit small businesses hard, but now their main concern is labor availability. He said business owners want rules when it comes to immigration, regardless of what those rules are. He's been really beating that drum of kind of the small business impact relative to large corporations that are doing fine making the decision distinction between the two. As it pertains to loan demand, as it pertains to who's being impacted by inflation, as it pertains to immigration and labor issues as well.

Becky Quick (7:48)

There's been a big split. Obviously the small business sentiment surveys have been pretty weak. Also, you know, when it comes to who Fed rate cuts help, it actually is more small business than it is the big companies that can access the public bond markets. And people have also argued that in the AI world and also the benefits to the scale or so. So it does seem as if there's a big split between, you know, the fortunes of big and small companies. Yeah, well. President Trump is scheduled to talk about the Israel Hamas peace process and security situation in the Middle east today when he meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. Trump and Netanyahu last saw each other face to face in October at the start of the cease fire between Israel and Hamas that has largely held, but progress has slowed, both sides accusing the the other of violations. Trump and Netanyahu may talk about a more complicated second phase of the peace process today, including implementation of Trump's 20 point plan for Gaza. Threats from Iran are also expected to be on the agenda.

Joe Kernan (8:49)

Former IBM chairman and CEO Louis Gerstner has died at age 83. IBM chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna announcing Gerstner's death in an email to employees yesterday. The message did not specify a cause of death. He became the first outsider to run IBM when he took the top job at the company in 1993. Coming to the role from the CEO position at RJR Nabisco I thought Was he at McKinsey?

Becky Quick (9:20)

It might be right before RJR.

Joe Kernan (9:23)

I saw him not too long ago. He was credited with turning around IBM's business and pivoting the company to towards services. IBM stock was up more than 700% during his tenure. Recently had a bit of a resurgence, but had some real tough years in terms of revenue and everything else became old tech, became legacy tech. He retired from the company in 2002, you might recall, became the chairman of the Carlyle Group until 2008. And we send sympathies to his family. I'm just hearing about this now. I didn't.

Becky Quick (10:03)

Yeah, it was kind of a. I mean, really important figure in the whole 90s kind of restructuring wave. You know, I mean, got a lot of criticism at the time. I think there were 350,000 IBM employees in the early 90s. There are 270 now. And the company's vastly bigger in market value. His book was who says Elephants Can't Dance? Which is about his remaking of IBM. And I think it's a reminder. It's relevant now as big companies are dealing with technological productivity shifts and all the rest of it, that the whole 90s was full of large legacy companies shedding a lot of employees and getting their costs in line. And, you know, Gerstner was right there with all that.

Joe Kernan (10:37)

So I guess I would say elephants can't dance. Probably.

Becky Quick (10:41)

Maybe not.

Joe Kernan (10:42)

Well, you know, market cap has come around, but.

Becky Quick (10:46)

Oh yeah, I mean, I mean, it.

Joe Kernan (10:47)

Was the preeminent tech company in a world with mainframes and everything else too. 285 billion.

Becky Quick (10:52)

Now they've split off businesses over the.

Joe Kernan (10:55)

Years, you know, doing better than Digital Equipment.

Becky Quick (10:58)

Yes, exactly.

Joe Kernan (10:59)

Data General.

Becky Quick (11:00)

Hey, listen, they started out with like time clock machines and stuff. And you know, it's. They've managed to remain novel. I mean, but I mean, IBM literally.

Joe Kernan (11:08)

Landscape is just littered with. It's hard, it's hard to keep up. I think it's even hard. Do we know whether the Mag 7 is. Will they be the new Mag 7 in the AI world?

Leslie Picker (11:18)

I think that's the question.

Joe Kernan (11:19)

They're trying hard. Yeah, yeah, they're doing better. Google's been in Microsoft. Microsoft, no matter what seems to.

Becky Quick (11:26)

They've. They've navigated like two or three major.

Leslie Picker (11:29)

Shifts pretty damn well organizationally. They're. The tech companies of today, though, are just different. They're. They're positioned to be able to pivot. And when you see the layoffs from Amazon and others, a lot of time it's just to be more streamlined, to be able to adapt to the new technologies and things like that. Whereas more of the legacy company has just had.

Becky Quick (11:47)

As a manufacturing company pretty much.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (11:49)

Right.

Becky Quick (11:49)

You know, so I'm.

Leslie Picker (11:50)

Back then it was structured as one.

Joe Kernan (11:51)

Yeah.

Leslie Picker (11:52)

As opposed to a tech company.

Joe Kernan (11:54)

Yeah, I'm. You know what, I'm. I'm getting off my space. It's just not doing it for me. I've never been on my space, but they. I was gonna say Weren't they in the same business as.

Becky Quick (12:06)

Sure, yeah.

Joe Kernan (12:08)

The kind of before wasn't managed quite as well.

Becky Quick (12:11)

No, it wasn't managed.

Joe Kernan (12:12)

Didn't take advantage. Strategic.

Becky Quick (12:15)

That's right. My understanding it still exists in, in some way out of a shell for, but almost exclusively for. As a way for bands to keep in touch with like their fan bases.

Leslie Picker (12:24)

Really?

Becky Quick (12:24)

That's what I hear.

Leslie Picker (12:25)

Wow.

Becky Quick (12:26)

This could be like five year old information. But.

Joe Kernan (12:28)

Yeah, no, I, I was never on. I was never on.

Leslie Picker (12:31)

I was never on MySpace either.

Joe Kernan (12:32)

I've never been on Facebook.

Leslie Picker (12:33)

No. Ever Instagram?

Joe Kernan (12:35)

You my man, Mike, Give me a high five. You have not.

Becky Quick (12:39)

No.

Joe Kernan (12:39)

Never been on Facebook.

Bradley Tusk (12:40)

No.

Joe Kernan (12:41)

I don't care what other people are doing, especially if they're doing great things, you know, if they're having all. I don't need fomo.

Becky Quick (12:47)

Nobody, I don't want. Nobody needs to find me.

Andy Richter (12:51)

Tease will be next.

Cameron Costa (12:53)

Coming up on Squawkpod, CNBC contributor Michelle Caruso Cabrera helps us unpack what's happening in Venezuela, including its mass exodus and its stolen election. As the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, attempts to concentrate power, the opposition has been.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (13:10)

On a roadshow trying to prove that they can lead. They started it here in New York. I attended. They've got a whole PowerPoint presentation.

Andy Richter (13:22)

Hi there, it's Andy Richter and I'm here to tell you about my podcast, the three Questions with Andy Richter. Each week I invite friends, comedians, actors and musicians to discuss these three questions. Where do you come from, where are you going, and what have you learned? New episodes are out every Tuesday with guests like Julie Bowe and Ted Danson, Tig Notaro, Will Arnett, Phoebe Bridgers and more. You can also tune in for my weekly Andy Richter call in show episodes where me and a special guest invite callers to weigh in on topics like dating, disasters, bad teachers, and lots more. Listen to the three Questions with Andy Richter wherever you get your podcasts.

Joe Kernan (14:03)

The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move, Having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx. The new power move.

Leslie Picker (14:33)

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (14:37)

I have no fear of failure.

Cameron Costa (14:39)

Trailblazing women, changing the game.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (14:42)

One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs.

Cameron Costa (14:47)

Leadership can look in Many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Leslie Picker (14:52)

Life is short and you just gotta.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (14:53)

Think big to accomplish big things.

Cameron Costa (14:55)

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back. This is Squawkpod.

Joe Kernan (15:09)

You're watching Squawkbox on cnbc. I'm Joe Kernan along with Leslie Picker and Mike Santoli. Becky and Andrew are off, obviously, this morning. Welcome.

Leslie Picker (15:19)

Thank you.

Joe Kernan (15:20)

How was it?

Leslie Picker (15:21)

It's been great.

Becky Quick (15:22)

Great.

Joe Kernan (15:23)

The alarm.

Leslie Picker (15:24)

Oh, I actually woke up before my alarm.

Joe Kernan (15:26)

I always do. I always turn my alarm really weird. I dread hearing it. It's so horrible. Right. But getting up isn't so great among today. But you know what? Are we not happy we're here to be here.

Becky Quick (15:39)

Not a lot to complain about.

Joe Kernan (15:40)

Cushy. The US Stepping up pressure on Venezuela's oil sector as President Trump tries to turn up the heat on Maduro's government. Joining us now is Michelle Caruso Cabrera, well known to CNBC viewers, but she's now CEO of MCC Global. Almost feel like saying effing enterprises because it's so global. And also, and also a CNBC contributor. So you didn't want to focus Western Hemisphere. Monroe, you're global.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (16:11)

Yes.

Joe Kernan (16:12)

Did you worry about being called a globalist because of that or do you think you need to do everything right or else you can't just cover one part of the globe?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (16:23)

Well, I used to be the chief international correspondent here.

Joe Kernan (16:26)

Right.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (16:26)

Which basically meant I covered financial crisis.

Joe Kernan (16:29)

You didn't think, wow, that's too much?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (16:31)

No, I can handle the whole world.

Joe Kernan (16:32)

You can handle this. This is good what's happening in Venezuela. And just reading your comments and talking to you, you don't really, you're not shy about this, what a lot of people would call interventionist policy. I sense that you think the Monroe Doctrine is something that is still relevant today and that it matters what happens in the Western Hemisphere.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (16:57)

Well, certainly the Trump administration has reinvigorated the Monroe Doctrine they have put in place.

Joe Kernan (17:01)

But you agree with it, I think, don't you?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (17:03)

Well, I would say Venezuela is one of the leading causes of instability in the Western hemisphere, pretty much. I mean, the cause of mass migration.

Joe Kernan (17:11)

In the Western Hemisphere is how many people? 25%.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (17:16)

25%. More than 25% of the population of Venezuela left. That's roughly 8 million people. We got three quarters of a million here. 3 million went to Colombia. The gangs of Venezuela, which are extensive. It's a very criminal Place have used that exodus of people to send gang members throughout the Western Hemisphere. We have them here in the United States. It was an election issue. It's been an election issue throughout Latin America, and so that's been a cause of instability. The other issue is that Maduro is in league with Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah.

Joe Kernan (17:47)

And Cuba gives all those bad actors a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (17:53)

And many administrations looked the other way for decades. And now this is returned to the Monroe Doctrine, and then also the corollary that was put in place by Theodore Roosevelt, which said, you know, we can use gunboat diplomacy if we need to. So they've obviously embraced that for a number of reasons.

Joe Kernan (18:11)

And I see, you know, critics of the Trump administration said that they're not a big exporter of fentanyl. Like it makes a difference whether it's coke or heroin or fentanyl. They have been poisoning the country with exports of the illicit substances for years.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (18:26)

It is without a doubt that they provide cover for the export of drugs. Remember, I sat on this set during the Obama administration, did a story about Maduro's stepson being arrested by the DOJ in Haiti. He had flown into Haiti in a plane with cocaine, expecting to do a deal with another drug runner. Turned out to be an undercover agent, and that plane left the presidential hangar in Venezuela. So there's no doubt that they, even if they're not producing fentanyl, they're very much involved with the drug trade, for sure. And the thing is, you break it, you bought it. Like, what comes next? Okay, well, we look at Argentina and.

Joe Kernan (19:03)

We think things, good things, can happen for the world in South America if things go right.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (19:10)

Yes.

Joe Kernan (19:11)

At least. I mean, I know that we're. You know, we have our own idea about what go right means. I mean, there's socialists that wish that socialism was working down there. But is it okay to say when capitalism breaks out and free markets break out, good things happen to the entire hemisphere?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (19:27)

So what's so interesting about Argentina and what the parallel is to Venezuela is that Argentine voters chose free markets and capitalism, and small government voters almost never choose.

Joe Kernan (19:39)

So did Venezuela.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (19:40)

And so did Venezuela. They held an election which Maduro ignored and is still in power. So the opposition does have democratic legitimacy.

Joe Kernan (19:50)

Well, that's why Trump has so much sympathy for Venezuela. Another stolen election down there.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (19:54)

Yes.

Joe Kernan (19:55)

I'm kidding.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (19:56)

So I just got that.

Bradley Tusk (19:59)

Yeah.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (20:00)

The opposition has been on a roadshow trying to prove that they can lead. They started it here in New York. I attended. They've got a whole PowerPoint presentation that you can look at for all of the different sectors that you can invest in in Venezuela if and when they come to Poland. Power a very, very orthodox investment structure as opposed to what they've been living under. That doesn't mean they can lead, though. It takes more than that.

Joe Kernan (20:22)

And they're all trying to show that they can. And others say, we just want to steal the oil. That's not it either. If we, if, if you destabilize the oil economy of Venezuela, then the regime might not.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (20:35)

I would turn that around. People say, oh, we want to steal the oil. I think the way to think about it is if Venezuela could go back to producing the 3 million barrels per day that they used to produce, that they could easily produce, instead of the less than 1 billion barrels per day that they do right now, they would have more revenue, they would have a more stable economy. 8 million people wouldn't want to leave. Right.

Joe Kernan (20:55)

They would want to be. The equivalent of 3 billion per day is 700,000, isn't it? That's what you get.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (21:03)

It's been complete mismanagement, which started long before the sanctions. I hear all the time, oh, the sanctions did this? No, the sanctions did not do this. When Hugo Chavez came to power 26 years ago, the plan was for the Venezuelan oil company to produce 6 million barrels a day. And he said, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Why would we want to produce more oil? That will lower prices. We should produce less oil. That was his rationale.

Joe Kernan (21:28)

So we might take care of Cuba with one fell swoop.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (21:31)

So Cuba's Cuba is very interesting. Cuba obviously is, you know, very connected to Venezuela. Cuba. Cuba survives only because of Venezuela. Venezuela providing them used to be 100,000 barrels per day, then 80,000 barrels per day. What I read is now it's 30,000 barrels per day. They have terrible instability there. More people left Cuba last year than they did in the early 60s.

Joe Kernan (21:53)

Two for the price of one.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (21:56)

Yeah, I mean, that's. You know, Mary, Anastasio Grady has a very good column today in the Wall Street Journal about, ok, post Cuba. What do you do there? There that's almost even harder because that infrastructure is much more debilitated even than it is in.

Becky Quick (22:09)

We're rushing to the spot of Maduro's gone. What does it take to get there?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (22:13)

That's a very good point. I mean, he has survived tough situations before.

Becky Quick (22:17)

So what would the US have to do beyond what's going on right now?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (22:20)

Yes, and that's a good Question. What we don't know is to what degree is the military with him or not? To what degree? If you cut off. So what is the goal of stopping the tankers, stopping the drug boats? The goal is to cut revenue to the administration, right to Maduro's. And that's how he keeps everybody happy, right, Those chits and that money that goes out, if you cut that off, the theory is, okay, maybe the military turns, maybe there's something. And maybe you do a negotiated change where you say, okay, you know, the top X number of leaders got to go, they got to go into exile, whatever, and then they co op the military, they co op the chavistas and then come up with some negotiated settlement, which there is precedent for that in the world. The trillion dollar question is what comes after Maduro if we get to that point, which is a good point.

Joe Kernan (23:07)

I don't know, just listening to you, it just didn't sound like you didn't sort of have some empathy towards what the administration is conducting.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (23:15)

I can't imagine anybody doesn't have empathy as an American that it would be better to.

Joe Kernan (23:20)

Many people don't they go crazy with the drug boats and stuff and that we're doing that without due process or whatever. Remember when we were. We set out to kill all the people on the drug boats with the first strike, right? That's what we're trying to do, is to destroy the boat. And then how long did the media. It was about two weeks. That, that was just non stop. That there were a couple guys hanging.

Becky Quick (23:44)

On the side of the boat.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (23:45)

There are certainly questions about the legality. What I'm saying is a change in Venezuela to not desire an improvement in the economy which has fallen 30%.

Leslie Picker (23:58)

40.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (23:59)

I mean they haven't. They're below 2005.

Joe Kernan (24:02)

This is the Michelle Crusoe Cabrera of old. This is the, this is the. You know I'm right. Michelle Caruso. That was the name of your book, was it not?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (24:09)

Yes, it was.

Joe Kernan (24:10)

You know I'm right.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (24:11)

More prosperity, less government.

Joe Kernan (24:13)

Yes, more prosperity, less government. I mean, and then you lost your way. You turned into Mamdani for a while.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (24:18)

I have never, never.

Joe Kernan (24:20)

Are you still. If you were to run again, what would you personally.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (24:24)

I believe personal accountability and capitalism is something that should be true for both parties. And I have many friends in the Democratic Party who believe that. And are you still a Democrat? I'm a registered Democrat, yes.

Joe Kernan (24:37)

Okay, you're in New York. To each his own. Thank you. It's good to see you. It's always good to have you on. It's always fun. Thank you. We know each other for sure.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (24:45)

More than 20 years, dude.

Cameron Costa (24:50)

Next the holiday weekend at the box office.

Joe Kernan (24:53)

People complain we don't have any movie stars. Is Timothy Chalamet? Is he ever going to be Clark Gable?

Cameron Costa (24:58)

And the artificial intelligence revolution driving the need for more power in the US Investor Bradley Tusk on the energy sleep slowdown that could leave us behind.

Bradley Tusk (25:09)

We have a huge problem in this country on energy permitting, just like we do with building affordable housing. And it makes the process so wildly slow and expensive that it becomes really hard to bring new forms of energy online.

Cameron Costa (25:22)

Squawkpod will be right back.

Andy Richter (25:30)

Hi there, it's Andy Richter and I'm here to tell you about my podcast, the three Questions with Andy Richter. Each week I invite friends, comedians, actors and musicians to discuss these three where do you come from, where are you going, and what have you learned? New episodes are out every Tuesday with guests like Julie Bowe and Ted Danson, Tig Notaro, Will Arnett, Phoebe Bridgers and more. You can also tune in for my weekly Andy Richter Call in Show episodes, where me and a special guest invite callers to weigh in on topics like dating, disasters, bad teachers, and lots more. Listen to the three Questions with Andy Richter wherever you get your podcasts.

Leslie Picker (26:11)

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (26:15)

I have no fear of failure.

Cameron Costa (26:17)

Trailblazing women, Changing the game One of.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (26:20)

My favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs.

Cameron Costa (26:25)

Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Leslie Picker (26:30)

Life is short and you just of kind.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (26:31)

Gotta think big to accomplish big things.

Cameron Costa (26:33)

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts. You're listening to Squawk Pod Today with Joe Kernan, Mike Santoli and Leslie Picker.

Becky Quick (26:49)

Stan Joe Biden in three two.

Joe Kernan (26:52)

Is Mike Q, Avatar, Fire and Ash remaining number one at the boxes office? This is the third film in the Avatar franchise. It earned $64 million over the weekend, $88 million between Christmas and yesterday. The movie did open softer than the prior Avatar film, but did better in its second weekend in theaters overseas. It has earned more than a half a billion dollars. I saw this Separately, Timothee Chalamet the drama Marty supreme took the number two spot at the box office over the long weekend, earning $27 million and beating the Jack Black comedy Anaconda. The total for Marty supreme is a major Win for Indie Film Studio A24. By the same. Some of the same gentlemen that did Uncut Gems, which was.

Becky Quick (27:41)

Yes. One of the Safdie brothers. Josh Safdie directed. Yes.

Joe Kernan (27:45)

Very unsettling to watch. Uncut Gems. I've seen it twice.

Becky Quick (27:48)

Yeah.

Joe Kernan (27:48)

And you need to see. Adam Sandler was. And Kevin Garner was amazing. This was amazing. In terms of. If you don't think people complain, we don't have any movie stars. Is Timothee Chalamet, Is he ever going to be Clark Gable? No. But is he a font of unbelievable talent? Yes.

Leslie Picker (28:05)

I thought you were going to talk about Kevin.

Joe Kernan (28:07)

I was going to, in reference to this, because Kevin, we had him on. He talked about it. He was hilarious. He admitted it, that he was cast because they wanted an a hole.

Becky Quick (28:14)

Absolutely.

Joe Kernan (28:15)

Over and over again. I didn't have to act. They just said, be yourself. Which he is. And he's great. And he co stars, literally, with Timothy Salame and Gwyneth Paltrow. I mean, he really does. Jon Katz. Matitis.

Becky Quick (28:29)

I know. I saw it. I clocked him right away.

Joe Kernan (28:31)

But o' Leary said, working with Chalamet, that when he walks in, there's sparks coming off of him. Yeah. And they're all kind of amazing. Through the entire. The thing with this, with the way they direct these movies or whatever it is, there's a lot of talking over, like this show, but a lot. The way that the scripts are, you can't wait for one person to finish and then start listening to the other. It's wild. It is wild.

Leslie Picker (28:55)

That's what keeps the pace down, the.

Becky Quick (28:56)

Speed at which he's speaking.

Joe Kernan (28:57)

Did you see it yet?

Becky Quick (28:58)

I did.

Bradley Tusk (28:58)

So, yeah.

Joe Kernan (28:58)

Wasn't it great?

Becky Quick (28:59)

Excellent.

Bradley Tusk (29:00)

Yeah.

Joe Kernan (29:01)

Crazy.

Becky Quick (29:01)

Yeah.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera (29:02)

Maybe I'll see it.

Becky Quick (29:02)

Everyone's hustling. Most of the hustles don't work.

Joe Kernan (29:05)

Crazy, though. Some of the scenes, the dog scenes, the bathtub scenes, Abel Ferreira, some of the Gwyneth paltrow scenes. Crazy. OpenAI is looking to hire a new head of preparedness who will be responsible for studying risks ranging from computer security to mental health. The job listing is on OpenAI's career site, with pay starting at more than $500,000, plus stock options. Wow. AI chatbot. What are you thinking about it? Oh, no. Oh, okay. AI chat. AI chatbots have faced more scrutiny with lawsuits alleging that ChatGPT has reinforced users delusions and also increased social isolation. There's a lot of hallucinating still going on. I've asked so many questions, different things, and they'll give me a definitive answer and I'll ask it more specifically and they'll say, oh, oh, no, no, no, no. Yeah, yeah, you're right.

Becky Quick (30:03)

Yeah.

Joe Kernan (30:04)

It's like, what? Don't tell me why you don't know.

Becky Quick (30:07)

All those data centers to rethink everything and recombine.

Joe Kernan (30:10)

Still pretty crappy. Oh, yeah.

Becky Quick (30:12)

Well, for a look at a potential regulation in the new year, we are joined by Bradley Tusk, founder and CEO of Tuck Tusk Ventures. Bradley, great to see you this morning. You've got a pretty, a pretty thorough view of exactly where you think things are headed on the regulation side and the development side for AI. Obviously, we got this executive order this month from the president suggesting that, you know, the federal authority should supersede states new laws on AI. Of course, states can do what they want. They could pass the laws. Maybe the government will sue them, maybe they won't. But how do you think this is coming together in terms of what elements of AI are being regulated? What states are leading?

Bradley Tusk (30:54)

Yeah, I mean, I think there's really three different categories. There's generative AI, it's so we just saw Governor Hochul amend and then sign the Raise act in New York. Governor Newsom did something similar a couple of months ago in California. There is the application of AI. So Joe mentioned quickly, mental health chat bots. We saw Illinois and Nevada both ban those last year. Seven or eight more states are taking that up right now. And then finally, and this is the one that I actually think is the biggest issue of all, which is the permitting and zoning for data centers. And that's not even at the state level, that's at the municipal and county level. And the reason I think that will actually be the biggest issue this coming year is simply in order to power generative AI with the way that we do compute in this country, typically right now, you need vast amounts of energy. And if energy consumption doubles, which is what the prediction is, and if energy supply stays relatively flat, obviously prices go way, way up. And those costs are being borne by local consumers in their electricity bills. And once those consumers start putting two and two together and realizing that they're paying a lot more money, so that Nvidia or Open Air or Oracle or whoever benefits as a result, they're going to revolt and they're going to throw everyone out of office. And politicians, I think, are smart enough to probably realize that. And I think we will start to see legislation all across the country that says that cities and counties cannot issue permitting to new data centers unless there is no corresponding energy cost increase for consumers. And that's really going to be the big fight of 2026.

Becky Quick (32:32)

Obviously the industry, you know, puts out these warnings that it's going to stifle innovation or slow down the process of the US becoming or maintaining the lead in AI. Do you actually think that the data center permitting or maybe the backlash against them is something that could compromise the build out here?

Bradley Tusk (32:52)

No, for two reasons. First of all, if you were to say, hey, we're not going to make consumers bear the cost of all of this, and keep in mind, if there is significant short term job displacement because of AI, if you're combining people losing their jobs with paying 50% more on their electricity bills, they're going, that's a revolution. Right. Like that is a really bad thing to let happen. But beyond that, we know there are alternate forms of compute, whether it's an inference model or people are using biological compute or different types of memory cylinders. So we know that that exists. And in a way, if you were to say we're not going to just impose all of these costs and negative externalities on consumers, it actually forces innovation, it forces, forces the companies to say, how can we do the same sort of compute without the same sort of energy needs? Is probably to the good. The second is you mentioned sort of the AI race in terms of things like national security. That's really not because the president allowed Nvidia to sell the 200 chips to China last week or two weeks ago. And if this were national security issue, you clearly wouldn't give your biggest enemy the most sensitive technology you have.

Becky Quick (34:07)

Yeah, I mean, obviously those are sort of one generation ago technologies. But your point is. It's well taken. But I really want to jump on your point about the energy consumption piece of this because I've been asking the question intentionally, a naive question from the beginning, which is if power is the main constraint, why isn't all the energy, so to speak, going toward finding a way around it and engineering our way around it? And there was a, there was an article I keep pointing out From February of 1999 that said, dig more coal. The PCs are coming. Okay. People thought that the Internet was going to actually soak up all the energy. So are we actually moving in that direction? Well, becoming more. Yeah, yeah.

Bradley Tusk (34:50)

I mean, look, there are definitely solutions, which is kind of the point that you're making. So micro grid nuclear could be an excellent solution. Right. And if this leads to a revolution where nuclear becomes a predominant real form of power in the United States, that's a Great thing we're not there right now. I have this thesis that if you were 10 years old or older when Three Mile island happened in 1979, you're still probably somewhat freaked out about nuclear energy. And if you were younger than that or you weren't born yet, you don't really care. So I looked in, assuming that in this case, ChatGPT was right. And despite Joe's warning, which to me actually fits with my experience, it said that 78% of Americans were born after March of 1969, which would be the 10 year cutoff. So it may be that the social norms around nuclear energy have now changed sufficiently that that could become a real solution. So it is possible that there's lots of different ways to solve it, whether it's alternate forms of compute, different ways to power it. The thing that probably doesn't work right now is to say we're not going to change the way that we provide the supply of energy, but yet we're just going to use a lot more of it. And look, we have a huge problem in this country on energy permitting, just like we do with building affordable housing, where we put all, all of these restrictions, all of these community reviews, all of these environmental reviews, all of these requirements to use labor to build everything, and it makes the process so wildly slow and expensive that it becomes really hard to bring new forms of energy online. And so just like we've seen the YIMBY movement in housing start to change that and make the construction of affordable housing easier, we've got to do the same thing with energy permanently.

Joe Kernan (36:40)

Fukushima was Chernobyl. I don't know if you saw that. I did, yeah. That was brutal. Hey. Hey, Bradley. Tmi. No one died. They don't even know if anyone died afterwards. They can't really point to anything on.

Bradley Tusk (36:55)

So you would be okay with a lot more nuclear?

Joe Kernan (36:58)

Yeah, I would. I don't know. You know what got most people wasn't tmi. It was the China Syndrome with Michael Douglas. And that was a. That was. That scared more people than. Well, then TMI seemed to confirm the worst fears. But Fukushima, that'll get your attention, won't it? 500 years. What's cesium? I mean, you worry about, you know, people worry about carbon dioxide. How long does cesium. That'll kill you. How long does that stay? Around half life is like 600 years, isn't it?

Bradley Tusk (37:28)

Yeah, for sure. Look, and obviously you can expedite permitting without disregarding safety, but it really does seem like a lot has improved, you know, and a lot of those, whether it's TMI or Fukushima or Chernobyl, those were just much, much older technologies. They had been online for a while before they had their meltdowns. And so my hope would be just like we keep developing advances in technology in every other sector, we're doing that in nuclear, too, and we at least seriously explore it, because otherwise, I really don't think that local politicians are going to be willing to lose their jobs to protect open AI or Nvidia or whoever else. And if that means data centers can't get permitted at all, that's a huge problem.

Joe Kernan (38:14)

I got a lump of coal for Christmas from San. I was like, yes, there you go.

Bradley Tusk (38:19)

That's one gigawatt. Yeah.

Becky Quick (38:22)

Yeah. Well, you were 11 when three mile happened, so that's why you're okay with nuclear 79.

Joe Kernan (38:28)

Yeah, yeah. Right around there. Right around there. Thank you. There you go.

Leslie Picker (38:33)

Thank you, Bradley.

Cameron Costa (38:36)

That's Squawk Pod for today. Thank you for listening. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Rossorkin. Thanks to Mike and Leslie for sitting in today. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. And to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears. Follow Squawkpod Wherever you get your podcasts, we'll meet you right back here tomorrow. Have a great day.

Becky Quick (39:02)

We are clear. Thanks, guys.

Andy Richter (39:14)

Hi there, it's Andy Richter, and I'm here to tell you about my podcast, the three Questions with Andy Richter. Each week, I invite five friends, comedians, actors and musicians to discuss these three where do you come from, where are you going, and what have you learned? New episodes are out every Tuesday with guests like Julie Bowe and Ted Danson, Tig Notaro, Will Arnett, Phoebe Bridgers and more. You can also tune in for my weekly Andy Richter call in show episodes, where me and a special guest invite callers to weigh in on topics like dating, disasters, bad teachers, and lots more. Listen to the three Questions with Andy Richter wherever you get your podcasts.