Squawk Pod Episode Summary

Episode: "Warren Buffett’s New Job & A Nonalcoholic Cheers to 2026"

Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Becky Quick, Mike Santoli, Robert Frank
Guests: Heidi Heitkamp, Pat Toomey, Bill Shufelt

Overview

In the first Squawk Pod of 2026, the team kicks off the year by reflecting on robust market returns, analyzing the significance of Warren Buffett officially stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and examining populist political shifts like the inauguration of New York City's new Democratic Socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani. The episode also digs deep into the growing push for wealth taxes in states like California and trends in non-alcoholic beverage consumption, as Dry January begins.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Year-End Market Recap & Outlook

• Markets Closed 2025 with Solid Gains

  • NASDAQ up over 20%, S&P 500 up 16.4%, Dow up nearly 13%, Russell 2000 up 11.3% ([03:00] – [03:55]).
  • Communication services sector was the big winner, real estate was slightly negative.
  • Commodities surged: Gold up 64%, Silver up a remarkable 141%.

• Reflections on a Bull Run

  • Robert Frank notes, “Third straight year of double digit... This is a pretty expansive three-year bull market, most of it supported by earnings growth.” ([04:23])
  • Discussion about whether bullish trends can persist for a fourth consecutive year; historical perspective and skepticism about predictive seasonal indicators like the “Santa Claus rally” and January effect ([05:11] – [07:32]).
  • Tech dominance, specifically AI companies, seen as pivotal for 2026: “42 AI related companies generated 65 to 75% of all S&P 500 earnings and profits.” – Mike Santoli ([08:35])

2. Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO

• Transition to Greg Abel

  • Becky Quick highlights, “Warren Buffett has officially stepped down as CEO… handing over the reins to Greg Abel. Buffett remains chairman.” ([08:56]).
  • Buffett’s remarks on the change:
    “Everything will be the same…I won’t be up there speaking at the annual meeting, but I’ll be in the director section…But Greg will be the decider.” – Warren Buffett ([09:32]) “If the neighbors didn't know who he was, they wouldn't have any idea that, well, on January 1st, he is going to be the decider on a company that employs close to 400,000 people.” ([10:10])

• Abel’s Leadership Style and Berkshire’s Future

  • High praise from Buffett:
    “I'd rather have Greg handling my money than any of the top investment advisors or any of the top CEOs in the United States.” ([11:09])
  • Discussion on whether Berkshire’s decentralized, conglomerate structure can continue. Santoli: “There aren’t perhaps any other successful conglomerates that continue. And I think Abel is clearly one of the, if not the best operators...” ([13:35])
  • Company holds $381B in cash, with potential for big infrastructure or energy investments.

• Buffett’s Legacy

  • “He is going out, guys, after 60 years with probably the most impressive compound in interest record of anybody in history.” – Becky Quick ([11:56])
  • Reference to upcoming CNBC primetime special with previously unseen Buffett interviews; insight from his children about philanthropy ([15:34]-[16:29]).

3. Populism & Politics: New York City's New Mayor

• Zohran Mamdani Sworn In
  • Mamdani’s progressive agenda:
    “It will be New Yorkers who reform a long broken property tax system… create a new Department of Community Safety… take on the bad landlords…free small business owners...” – Zohran Mamdani ([16:34])
  • Mamdani promises, “We will answer to all New Yorkers, not to any billionaire or oligarch…” ([17:16])
  • Inauguration featured Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez; signals Democratic Socialist momentum ([17:41]).
  • Discussion on feasibility: “The mayor, of course, does not have the ability to raise taxes in New York City. That has to be approved in Albany.” – Mike Santoli ([17:41])
  • Analysis of political consequences for Governor Hochul, balancing public demands and fiscal realities ([18:28]).

4. Wealth Tax Wars: California’s Billionaire Exodus?

• Details on Proposed California Wealth Tax

  • Would tax California billionaires’ assets, even if valuations fall, with strict residency criteria ([25:55]-[26:57]).
  • Notable billionaires, e.g. Peter Thiel, Larry Page, and David Sacks, relocating to Miami, Austin, or out of state in anticipation.

• Pat Toomey & Heidi Heitkamp Debate Merits

  • Toomey:
    “We are not anywhere in this country…have we established the principle that the government is going to confiscate part of your assets to give them away…This would be a whole new idea...” ([27:29]) “It’s not going to be just billionaires. People are going to realize there’s no limiting principle here… The exodus will be profound.” – Pat Toomey ([28:36])
  • Heitkamp:
    “This is not a new idea. This is called a personal property tax…has been tried and failed in many, many states.” ([29:32]) “This is intrusive. This is not consistent with what we would call a taxable event.” ([30:10])
  • Both doubt the proposal’s viability and warn of unintended consequences. Heitkamp notes administrative challenges and that political overreactions are likely ([30:47]).

• Wider Inequality Debate

  • Toomey on solutions: “Strong economic growth does lift almost all boats… [also] fluidity and mobility within income categories.” ([32:13])
  • Heitkamp calls for more sophisticated tax reform, targeting loopholes (stepped-up basis, borrowing against assets) instead of kneejerk wealth taxes:
    “The left has to be more sophisticated in how they address these issues. And you can't just knee jerk the latest trend. It won't work.” ([35:28])
  • Toomey points out the top 1% already pay a disproportionate amount of taxes:
    “The top 1%...earn 20% of the income, pay 40% of all income taxes.” ([36:30])
  • Heitkamp: “I never hear from you a combination of payroll taxes along with these taxes.” Emphasizes different types of taxation ([37:23]).

5. Non-Alcoholic Beverage Trend: Athletic Brewing & Dry January

• Surge in Non-Alcoholic Beer

  • Athletic Brewing’s Bill Shufelt explains meteoric growth: “Over that time we’ve grown our trailing 12-month sales by about 53% into a historically bad alcoholic beer environment. Non-alcoholic beer continues to truck right through that as a very durable megatrend.” ([40:34])
  • Shufelt on changing social norms:
    “We reinvented not only the taste and quality of nonalcoholic beer, but the branding and marketing of it. So you were proud to hold these drinks…” ([42:04])
    • “Over 53% of Americans perceive drinking one to two drinks a day as unhealthy, which is up 14 points in two years.” ([43:14])
    • Becky Quick: “I think it’s a status thing to actually show this is nonalcoholic rather than pour it in a glass.” ([43:14])

• Product Innovation & Market Expansion

  • In 2026, Athletic is launching non-alcoholic brewed cocktails (Paloma, Moscow Mule) and new beers, with a significant partnership with OpenTable.
  • Shufelt: “We launched over 50 beers on our website last year alone… we can just churn out the innovation and keep winning those awards.” ([45:02])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Berkshire’s Unrivaled Performance ([11:56]):

  • “He is going out, guys, after 60 years with probably the most impressive compound in interest record of anybody in history.” – Becky Quick

• On Wealth Taxes ([28:36]):

  • “If you can confiscate the assets of a billionaire, why not someone who’s worth 500 million… The exodus will be profound.” – Pat Toomey

• On Taxing Unrealized Gains ([30:10]):

  • “This is intrusive. This is not consistent with what we would call a taxable event.” – Heidi Heitkamp

• On the Non-alcoholic Movement ([43:14]):

  • “I think it’s a status thing to actually show this is non alcoholic rather than pour it in a glass.” – Becky Quick

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Recap and Outlook: [02:06] – [08:27]
• Buffett’s CEO Transition: [08:56] – [16:29]
• New York Politics & Mamdani Inauguration: [16:34] – [20:16]; repeated in [23:01] – [23:44]
• California Wealth Tax & Debate: [25:55] – [37:52]
• Athletic Brewing & Dry January: [38:13] – [45:56]

Tone & Style

The episode balances expert analysis with conversational banter. Becky Quick provides concise summaries; Mike Santoli and Robert Frank deliver data-rich insights. Guests deliver nuanced debate with an emphasis on consequences, pragmatism, and historical context. The vibe is fast-paced, informative and approachable, with a nod to major national themes (business leadership change, populism, health trends) as 2026 begins.

This summary distills the full range of significant topics, insights, and quotes, offering a clear structure and utility for listeners who missed the episode.