Squawk Pod Episode Summary – “Working Through the Shutdown: The CPI Report 10/24/25”

Date: October 24, 2025
Podcast: Squawk Pod (CNBC)
Main Hosts: Becky Quick, Joe Kernan, Andrew Ross Sorkin
Guests: Senator James Lankford (R-OK), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Rick Santelli (CNBC), Michael Kantopoulos (Richard Bernstein Advisors), David Sieff (Nomura)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Squawk Box team grapples with the ongoing government shutdown—the second longest in history—and its impact on economic data, especially the long-delayed release of the September CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. The discussion is framed by the struggle in Congress over health care subsidies, the growing pain in the real economy, and political brinksmanship from both sides. In-depth interviews with Senator James Lankford and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries provide conflicting perspectives on how (and whether) the government will reopen and what it means for working Americans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State of the Shutdown & Economic Uncertainty

• Shutdown at an Impasse:
  • The government shutdown is now in its 24th day, delaying most economic data and causing visible strain (air traffic slowdowns, federal worker pay disruptions).
  • Both parties blame each other for the hold-up, centering on the extension of ACA (Obamacare) subsidies.
  • Joe Kernan: “Thirteen times we've had a continuing resolution ... and Democrats this time just say they're mad at Trump.” (01:36)
• Real-World Effects:
  • Not only are millions of federal workers missing pay, but basic government functions are compromised.
  • Hakeem Jeffries: “We haven't shut the government down. Donald Trump is the president. Republicans control the House and the Senate.” (01:53, 44:18)
  • Discussion of grounded flights at Newark and LaGuardia highlights direct consumer impact (03:36–03:43).

The September CPI Report & Market Response

• Delayed Data Finally Arrives:
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics called in furloughed workers to release the CPI report, which is essential for Social Security adjustments and Fed policy decisions.
  • Rick Santelli’s analysis:
    • Headline CPI: Up 0.3% vs. expectations of 0.31%; Core CPI (ex-food/energy): Also 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected. (17:09–18:46)
    • Year-over-year inflation: 3% (slightly less than expected, but “it's got a 3 handle”).
    • Market reaction: Stocks up, rates down, as actual numbers were a touch softer than feared.
• Fed Implications:
  • Santelli and guests broadly agree: While inflation is lower than anticipated, it’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target—unlikley to prompt radical policy change.
  • David Sieff: “... Even a little bit softer. That's great news for the Fed in terms of their ability to cut in October ... but ... inflation fears are at least a little bit, were a little bit too high.” (19:28)
  • “The only honest metric we're getting about the US Economy now ... is the stock market.” – Rick Santelli (18:58)

Congressional Stalemate: Health Care Subsidies & Partisan Divide

• Senator Lankford’s Take:
  • Refers to previous continuing resolutions and blames Democrats for refusing to pass stopgap bills, framing shutdown as political grandstanding against Trump.
  • Lankford: “Thirteen times we've had a continuing resolution ... Democrats this time just say they're mad at Trump and so they're not going to do it at this point.” (22:47)
  • Argues that ACA subsidies are structurally flawed—citing a 200% rise in ACA plan premiums in Oklahoma versus a 29% rise in commercial plans over six years (31:38).
  • Proposes reforms: Modest premiums for ACA customers (“even if it was a $20 premium...”, 30:11), anti-fraud measures, and capping subsidies for high-income participants.
  • Advocates for an automatic “shutdown disarmament” bill: “If we get to the end of a fiscal moment ... we have an automatic continuing resolution that kicks in ... But members of Congress can't travel ... and you can't do any other bill other than appropriations.” (25:42)
• House Minority Leader Jeffries’ View:
  • Jeffries lays blame at Republicans’ feet, tying the impasse to their refusal to extend ACA subsidies.
  • Jeffries: “We extended the Affordable Care act tax credits in 2022 for three years. The program is working. It's providing health care to tens of millions of people in an affordable way, and it should be continued.” (41:49)
  • Points out the original ACA subsidy phase-out was set when Democrats held majorities (40:01), rebutting the accusation that this is somehow a Republican-only problem.
  • On reform proposals: Jeffries is open to “anything that emerges from the Senate in good faith in a bipartisan way that both reopens the government while at the same time addresses this health care crisis.” (41:49)
  • Stresses immediate need: “... tens of millions of Americans are receiving notices as we speak indicating that their health care premiums are about to skyrocket in ways that will bankrupt them or deprive them of the ability to go see a doctor...” (49:47)

Target Layoffs & Corporate Reaction

• Target Cuts 8% of Corporate Workforce:
  • Target announces 1,800 job cuts from HQ—a sign of stress at large US retailers, even as the consumer economy appears “strong on paper.”
  • Incoming CEO Michael Fidelke is seeking to cut middle management and quickly enact turnaround strategies.
  • “[It's] impacting leader roles at about three times the rate of individual contributors. … probably a necessary step that they are taking at this point.” – Becky Quick (11:59)
  • “... 1800 middle managers. How can you need middle managers? But 1800.” – Andrew Ross Sorkin (13:42)
• Pop Culture Tie-Ins:
  • Target to invest in exclusive releases (Taylor Swift’s new album, Netflix partnerships, etc.) as part of an urgent brand revitalization.
  • Underlying question: Are these moves enough to satisfy Wall Street?

Trade Tensions: US-Canada Dispute

• Trump Halts Trade Talks with Canada:
  • The US halts trade talks after Ontario releases a Reagan-themed ad criticizing tariffs, which Trump claims distorts Reagan’s true stance.
  • “[Reagan said] High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation ... and the triggering of fierce trade wars...” (from Reagan audio, 07:51)
  • Discussion about when, if ever, tariffs are appropriate; panel debates whether Reagan’s caveats support Trump’s actions (08:24–09:35).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Political & Economic Soundbites

• “We're jonesing for some actual government data and we're going to get it today.”
  – Andrew Ross Sorkin (01:13)
• “Monday comes quick, but so does Friday ... The only way we solve this, this Friday problem ... is a four day work week.”
  – Andrew Ross Sorkin (02:41–02:58)
• “My epiphany is ... the only honest metric we're getting about the US Economy now ... is the stock market.”
  – Rick Santelli (18:58)
• “Is it less than the Fed's target of 2%? No. Which in my opinion that fact will rise above all the issues of the day at some point.”
  – Rick Santelli on CPI (17:32)
• “I have a bill ... that would end government shutdowns forever ... put the pressure where the pressure should be ... and don't have federal workers ... wondering if members of the military are getting paid. That's ridiculous.”
  – Sen. James Lankford (25:39–26:24)
• “This is not a setup beyond what we could do. We extended the Affordable Care act tax credits in 2022 for three years. The program is working ... and it should be continued.”
  – Hakeem Jeffries (40:01)
• “We've made clear in the House that we will consider anything that emerges from the Senate in good faith in a bipartisan way that both reopens the government while at the same time addresses this health care crisis ...”
  – Hakeem Jeffries (41:49)
• “November 1st open enrollment begins. The notices are going out ... this is not an artificially made up thing.”
  – Hakeem Jeffries (49:47)

Humor & Pop Culture

• “My idea is to shut down Squawk Box until our demands are met.”
  – Andrew Ross Sorkin (02:08; recurring as a joke about striking for a four-day workweek)
• “I still get checks from them ... Even you couldn't save that movie.”
  – Becky Quick & Andrew Ross Sorkin on Wall Street II (12:50–12:55)
• “WTF or whatever the hell it is ... WTO.”
  – Sorkin and Quick on trade organizations (35:04–35:05)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment / Topic | |-------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:13 | Data drought during shutdown—CPI anticipation | | 03:36–03:53 | Impact of shutdown: air traveler disruptions, federal employees unpaid | | 06:26–09:35 | Trump-Canada trade spat, Reagan ad controversy, tariffs debate | | 11:59–13:40 | Target layoffs, CEO moves, management bloat | | 16:26–18:46 | Rick Santelli: CPI analysis, market reaction | | 22:47–26:24 | Sen. Lankford: Shutdown blame, ACA subsidy critique, reform proposal | | 31:38–32:04 | ACA premium increases (Oklahoma), Lankford on reform | | 38:41–41:49 | Hakeem Jeffries: Dems’ shutdown approach, ACA subsidies, response to GOP | | 49:47 | Jeffries on direct impact: rising health premiums, urgent action needed |

Tone & Style

Hosts maintain the signature Squawk Box blend of informed debate, skepticism, and humor—with a focus on putting elected officials on the spot. While the economic data is handled with seriousness, political exchanges throughout are brisk, pointed, and occasionally sardonic.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

The episode delivers a real-time portrait of a government paralyzed by partisanship, showing how legislative gridlock is spilling into daily life—from missed paychecks to flight delays—while Wall Street and policymakers watch the CPI for signs of economic cooling. The Target layoffs and the Canada tariff flap offer broader context on corporate and trade anxieties. Candid exchanges with Senator Lankford and Leader Jeffries crystallize the impasse over health care subsidies, illustrating just how far apart the two parties remain on solutions and priorities.

This episode is essential listening for anyone seeking to understand the intersection of shutdown politics, economic policy, and their direct impact on Americans in late 2025.