The Power of Probability with Alex Cosoi

Summary

StarTalk Radio: The Power of Probability with Alex Koshoi

Episode Release Date: November 22, 2024
Host: Neil deGrasse Tyson
Co-hosts: Gary O'Reilly and Chuck Nice
Guest: Alex Koshoi, Chief Security Strategist at Bitdefender

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1. Introduction to Probability

The episode opens with Neil deGrasse Tyson expressing his fascination with probability, highlighting its frequent misconceptions among the general public. He emphasizes the importance of understanding probability to navigate life's uncertainties effectively.

Neil deGrasse Tyson [02:32]: "Today's topic is one of my favorite just as an educator, simply because it's where people miss think things most often..."

2. Human Cognitive Biases in Probability Estimation

Gary O'Reilly introduces the discussion by relating probability to everyday decisions and inherent risks, such as gambling or making choices like standing on a wobbly chair. The conversation delves into how humans are wired to recognize patterns, often seeing them where none exist—a relic from our survival mechanisms.

Gary O'Reilly [02:32]: "Probabilities has its own branch of mathematics... it's intertwined into so much of our everyday lives."

Chuck Nice humorously comments on human tendencies to misjudge probabilities, especially in environments like Las Vegas, where casinos exploit these cognitive biases.

Chuck Nice [05:09]: "It's a geek fest."
Chuck Nice [12:15]: "Clouds."
Chuck Nice [14:05]: "They play the Washington Generals."

3. The Odds of Existence

Neil transitions into a profound exploration of the improbability of individual existence. He discusses the astronomical odds of a specific genetic configuration leading to a unique human being, underscoring the rarity and preciousness of life.

Neil deGrasse Tyson [23:28]: "You are alive against stupendous odds."
Neil deGrasse Tyson [25:09]: "You, Gary O'Reilly, are alive against stupendous odds."

4. Probability in Everyday Life

The discussion broadens to encompass how probability affects various aspects of daily living, from health assessments to financial decisions. Neil criticizes the educational system for not adequately teaching probability and statistics, leaving individuals vulnerable to flawed decision-making.

Neil deGrasse Tyson [15:02]: "But as a scientist, we know how important probability is to separate your own bias on what is going on in the world from what is objectively going on in the world."

5. Cybersecurity and the Power of Probability

Gary introduces the episode's guest, Alex Koshoi, to bridge the conversation into cybersecurity. The trio explores how probability underpins cyber risk assessments and the increasing prevalence of cyber threats in the digital age.

Gary O'Reilly [28:33]: "We are living our lives online... the probability of bad stuff, probability of it being okay."

Alex Koshoi elaborates on the inevitability of cyber attacks, stressing that everyone is a potential target regardless of perceived wealth or status.

Alex Koshoi [31:28]: "The probability of somebody being attacked, I would say it's biased from my perspective, is 100%."

6. Strategies to Mitigate Cyber Risks

The conversation shifts to practical strategies for individuals and organizations to protect against cyber threats. Alex emphasizes the importance of using password managers, minimizing one's digital footprint, and implementing multi-factor authentication to enhance security.

Alex Koshoi [54:16]: "Get the password manager, make it take care of your passwords, and try to remember all those accounts that you're no longer using."
Alex Koshoi [55:01]: "Minimize your footprint, your Internet footprint. Don't post stupid stuff."

Neil and Chuck discuss the limitations of traditional security measures like voice and face recognition, especially in an era where AI can easily replicate these identifiers.

Neil deGrasse Tyson [48:06]: "It's two-factor authentication."
Chuck Nice [49:59]: "That's Bond villain badness."

7. Concluding Thoughts

Neil wraps up the episode by reiterating the critical role of probability in both appreciating the uniqueness of life and safeguarding against modern threats. He calls for a more scientifically informed perspective in everyday decision-making to foster a kinder and more considerate society.

Neil deGrasse Tyson [25:09]: "Because of this, life should be cherished."
Neil deGrasse Tyson [55:49]: "As always, I bid you to keep looking up."

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Neil deGrasse Tyson [02:32]: "We're going to talk about probabilities. So Gary, it was your idea to do this topic."
• Gary O'Reilly [02:32]: "Probabilities has its own branch of mathematics... it's intertwined into so much of our everyday lives."
• Neil deGrasse Tyson [23:28]: "You are alive against stupendous odds."
• Alex Koshoi [31:28]: "The probability of somebody being attacked, I would say it's biased from my perspective, is 100%."
• Alex Koshoi [54:16]: "Get the password manager, make it take care of your passwords."
• Neil deGrasse Tyson [25:09]: "You are alive against stupendous odds."

Key Takeaways:

• Understanding Probability: Fundamental in making informed decisions and assessing risks in various life domains.
• Cognitive Biases: Humans often misinterpret probabilities due to innate pattern recognition, leading to flawed judgments.
• Rarity of Existence: The incredibly low probability of individual existence highlights the uniqueness and value of life.
• Cybersecurity Risks: In the digital age, understanding and mitigating cyber risks through informed strategies is paramount.
• Practical Protection Measures: Utilizing tools like password managers and multi-factor authentication significantly enhances personal and organizational security.

This episode of StarTalk Radio offers a comprehensive exploration of probability, bridging complex mathematical concepts with tangible real-world applications, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity. Neil deGrasse Tyson, alongside his co-hosts and guest, provides listeners with both intellectual insights and practical advice, making the intricate topic of probability accessible and relevant.

Transcript

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[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

You are alive against stupendous odds and I take the posture that because of this, life should be cherished. Welcome to StarTalk, your place in the universe where science and pop culture collide. StarTalk begins right now. This is StarTalk Special Edition. Neil Degrasse Tyson here, your personal astrophysicist. And of course we got Gary O'Reilly. Gary, former soccer pro sports commentator.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yep. Hi Neil.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And long time co host of StarTalk. Chuck. Nice.

[Chuck Nice]

What's going on guys?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Today's topic is one of my favorite just as an educator, simply because it's where people miss think things most often and I feel extra responsible to try to get in there and make it work for them. We're going to talk about probabilities. So Gary, it was your idea to do this topic. I love the topic. I devoted a whole chapter to it in a recent book I published. So I'm pretty fresh in commentary regarding it. But more specifically, where did you want to take me on this?

[Gary O'Reilly]

So probabilities, Neil, calculating risk, gambling. Call it what you will, we all do it. Stand on a wobbly chair, eat that food in the fridge that's been there two weeks. It's a gamble. Probabilities has its own branch of mathematics.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah.

[Gary O'Reilly]

And it's intertwined into so much of our everyday lives. Risk and assessment for insurance, predicting extreme weather models, which has been very, very important in the last few weeks. It's baked into AI and especially that annoying predictive text program in my computer that tells me what I should be typing and I hate it for that. Only it's probability that's used in cyberspace and we do, without realizing, have that baked in Again, and we'll get to that later on in the show when our guest, Alex Koshoi, he's chief security strategist at bitdefender, the cybersecurity experts. And we'll open up what it's all about, where it's going, what it's likely to look like going forward, and our approach to risk itself. So having said that, Neil, let's find out more about what happens when a bunch of physicists turn up in Las Vegas.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Let me preface this by saying, back in the 1980s, my community of physicists, the American Physical Society, the APS, have annual meetings, and one of them was scheduled for San Diego. San Diego, especially of late, is a big convention town. Comic Con, you know, the most famous of the world's Comic Cons takes place there, and the whole city sort of adjusts for it. There's a convention center and everything. Anyhow, the community of physicists had booked hotels and was ready. And it turned out there was a snafu where the hotel reservations failed for some reason, and I don't remember why. So here's this convention that was supposed to happen, and it can't happen. So what do you do? Well, the MGM grand, then the MGM Marina in Vegas says, we'll take you. We are the largest hotel in the country. We can take you on short notice. So the APS pivoted to Vegas pivoted. And so that year's convention was in Vegas, where people give talks and their public talks and professional talks and this sort of thing. All right, A lot of breakout rooms. It's where we sort of reconnect, especially in an era before there was much emailing going on.

[Chuck Nice]

It's a geek fest.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah, Geek fest. Thank you, Physics geek fest. Well, a week later, there was a headline. This is after the conference, Physicists in town. Lowest casino take ever. The American Physical Society has been asked to never return to the city.

[Chuck Nice]

That's great.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And so you can ask, well, did the physicists sort of know the odds and play the odds? No, they just didn't.

[Chuck Nice]

Didn't play. Because here it is. It is the only activity where the people tell you, we are legally cheating you. Now, we just want you to know this when you come in. The reason why we say good luck is because we already win.

[Gary O'Reilly]

And the great thing is, Chuck, when you start, when you get a little bit of a run going, if that ever happens, they see you and they bring you free drinks.

[Chuck Nice]

Well, I was gonna say, any place where that brings you free drinks, there's a trap Somewhere there's nobody that says, hey, just drink up all my liquor. And.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah.

[Chuck Nice]

And that's all. We're good. No. So no.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Here's the cabinet. Just go in the cabinet.

[Chuck Nice]

Like I have some. I had a party where my best friend at the time opened up my cabinet and took out a bottle of the McAllen 30 year old Scotch. Right. Which I don't share with anybody. Okay. And proceeded to pour off my Macallan to my other friends. And I went around and picked up the glasses.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

What the hell are you doing?

[Chuck Nice]

You don't get to do this. So anybody giving you free liquor is a catch. That's all there is to it. So that lets you know what Vegas is up to.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Nice to know you've let that go, Chuck.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah. Chuck is still in therapy for many things.

[Chuck Nice]

They have many things. That is one of them. Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So I thought I'd look a little more deeply into this, only to discover that if you look at various branches of mathematics, of which there are many, but let me list a few. Let's go in sort of historical order, there's sort of geometry. Geo geometry means earth measurement, by the way. From, I guess that would be Greek geometry, earth measurement. You have geometry, you have arithmetic, you.

[Chuck Nice]

Have algebra, which is the terrorist version of mathematics. I'm sorry, Just move on. Let's keep moving.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Algebra, we keep going. You can get to calculus, there's trigonometry, whole branches of math that we remember. Even if you're part of the walking wounded of those classes, we remember these from perhaps as early as middle school, certainly high school. If you sequence these, do you realize all of those branches of math were discovered invented before it occurred to anyone to take the average of numbers?

[Gary O'Reilly]

Okay.

[Chuck Nice]

Oh, interesting. I see what you're saying.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay, yes. That's weird.

[Chuck Nice]

That is.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

That's weird when you think about that. So here are these numbers. You add them together, divide by the total. Somebody had to do that first. Okay, that didn't happen. Until when did I have late 18th century, long after calculus. Newton had calculus in the bag, okay. By the late 1600s, early 1700s, calculus people. And now someone later on says, hmm, let me sum these numbers together and divide and see if that means anything. Well, that's early statistics, right? And there are books as late as the 1800s that believed. These are official math books that described how you can influence the outcome of a certain set of probabilities. Because they believed that was the case, because probability and statistics was not yet properly formulated as an authentic and bonafide branch of mathematics.

[Chuck Nice]

Right.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Point is, why is that? So how is it that people, we, in our species can say, we need calculus and there's no probability. Okay. There must be some. Something absent in our brain wiring that prevents us from thinking natively in this space.

[Chuck Nice]

Yeah. It's called heuristic hubris. That's who we are.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Because outcomes are what we want them to be, not what the math says.

[Chuck Nice]

And we still do that.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

We still do that. We still do it to this day.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Are we not hardwired, Neil, to calculate risk as a survival mechanism?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Well, okay, so if you speak with sort of evolutionary biologists.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

They will frequently, and I think without much debate, tell you that we do make certain assessments.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

For example, if this will take us to an aspect of how the brain works. But consider there's something that repeats multiple times, and you learn that and it hurts you.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Then you say, well, let me not do that again. So then you don't, and then you avoid it. So this is. This is simple. So this is the act of how repeated occurrences decide for you what the future is going to be. All right. And this matters for survival. My favorite survival fact is how we put order on things, even if there's no order there, that has extraordinary consequences.

[Chuck Nice]

Exactly.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Let's look at how it might have begun. So we're in the Serengeti, and you don't want to get eaten by a lion. And there's the grass. You know, the amber grass is blowing in the breeze, and you say to yourself, I wonder if there's a lion there. In fact, I think there is. Let me go check. Yeah. Yeah.

[Chuck Nice]

Right.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay. This will summarily remove sort of the curiosity gene in.

[Chuck Nice]

Because you don't get to have children to be curious if it is a lion. If it is a lion, you don't.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Get to have curious children to the extent that curiosity is inherited. Okay. So it turns out we are better off thinking there's a lion in the grass.

[Chuck Nice]

Right.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Whether or not there is, and then going in the opposite direction than not thinking there's a line in the grass, missing it, and having it eat us. But consider that we think there's a line in the brush, whether or not there is one. And that's the genes that got protected. Okay. So this is pattern recognition. We will see patterns even if there isn't a pattern there. We can put a set of random dots. And you say, oh, I see this. And I see that. You must have done that on purpose.

[Chuck Nice]

Clouds.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

I see it. And your life experience overrides the mathematics of what just happened or your life expectations or your life belief system overrides it.

[Gary O'Reilly]

The pattern recognition, Neil, is the probability that that will happen, as you say, from experience. And we use this in sport a lot from analyzing gameplay.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So let me bring us to the premise. We have this feature in our brain wiring to detect patterns, even if they aren't there, because that was in the interest of our survival. We're not making those same decisions anymore about whether we might get eaten by a lion. But that's still. That brain feature remains within us. And we see patterns in everything. And we think because we see a pattern that the pattern is real. Even we think the absence of patterns is a pattern. You had a roulette table, and I said, why you keep betting on seven? It's due. And I say, how do you know it's due? Because the roulette table shows you the previous 10 roles. Okay, spins. Or the previous 20, and you don't see a 7. It's due. No, it's not due.

[Chuck Nice]

Take a look.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Probability class.

[Chuck Nice]

Yeah, it's. It's not due. The same way the Washington Generals are not due to beat the Harlem Globetrotters.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah, how about that?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

They play the Washington Generals.

[Chuck Nice]

I don't know what they're called now. I don't know.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

It's like 40 years ago, made up nine. So this notion that because it hasn't happened recently, it's bound to happen in your next bet is how casinos make money. Casinos exist to exploit these frailties of the human brain wiring. They exist for that purpose.

[Gary O'Reilly]

But it goes back to the point you had about magicians. The casinos know more about how you think than you do.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yes.

[Gary O'Reilly]

And they manipulate that, obviously.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And it's completely manipulated. And like. Like Chuck said, they tell you that.

[Chuck Nice]

Going straight up, hey, by the way, we're going to cheat you today. Enjoy yourself. Right.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Getting cheated.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Is that why they call Las Vegas Lost wages.

[Chuck Nice]

Lost wages, yes.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And so, by the way, as a scientist, we know how important probability is to separate your own bias on what is going on in the world from what is objectively going on in the world. So every year I was in school, we had some element of probability and statistics taught related to the aspect of the sciences that we were addressing. So I would say, all told, I might have had eight years of probability and statistics. Yet if you look in a school curriculum, it's not there at all.

[Chuck Nice]

No.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

At all. Now, will you grant me one conspiracy theory?

[Chuck Nice]

Go ahead.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Depends which one it is.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

No, see, Chuck believes in me. He Just says, go out, go ahead, go for it.

[Gary O'Reilly]

If he doesn't like, he's going to slam you down.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

But then, okay, here it is. You know the state lottery systems? Yeah. Do you know how they get funding for that? And what they, you know, there's tax levied on that. Do you know where that money goes to, typically?

[Chuck Nice]

Well, they tell you that it's for education.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Let's assume that's true. Let's even assume that's true. So it's for education. And I said, oh, that's good. Public education, you know, K through 12. And then I looked at the curricula across the country of what is taught. And probability, if it's taught at all, is only an elective. It's not a fundamental part of the math curriculum. And so it occurred to me that as long as they don't teach probability in school, you are susceptible to playing.

[Chuck Nice]

The lottery, which funds the school.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Which funds the school paying for your education probability. It could be the end of the state lottery system.

[Chuck Nice]

Well, yeah, because anybody who knows something about probability does not play the lottery. As a matter of fact, my father used to tell me, take a dollar a day, the dollar, you would play the lottery, start right now and just take that everyday dollar and put it in the bank. And through compound interest, it will take 20 years, but you will hit the lottery.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

That's good.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

People trying to assess their health or there's security based on risk, risk factors. And I think in the book there are people who smoke knowing that there's a risk of cancer. And I think if you're an active smoker, there's a 1 in 8 chance that your tombstone will say died of lung cancer. And so then I thought, let me glorify that up a bit and say, okay, instead of you just taking that risk, let's do it this way. Today, everyone who lights up a cigarette, one in eight of them on that first puff, their head will explode and they'll fall over in a pile of blood on the pavement. And if that is not you, you get to smoke for the rest of your life without cancer. Would you take that risk?

[Chuck Nice]

Well, what brand of cigarettes are we talking?

[Gary O'Reilly]

The exploding kind.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Exploding. So what I tried to do in the book was rejigger the risk into something that might be a little more tangible, a little more devastating for you to hear, even if the numerics remain the same. Just to try to get at the fact that our brain is not wired for this to happen. So, yeah, Gary, it's sad. Even I drive by Casinos. And it's like, man, I'm sad for our brain wiring and for the education system that doesn't address that fact.

[Gary O'Reilly]

You drive past the casino, Neil, how often is the car park full?

[Chuck Nice]

Full?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

All the time.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yeah, all the time.

[Chuck Nice]

Yeah. That's why you gotta be an especially bad business person to lose money. If you own a casino or in.

[Gary O'Reilly]

A movie where George Clooney turns up with some friends.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Ocean's 11, 12 and 13, 14, 15.

[Chuck Nice]

20, whatever they're up to now.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah, the franchise just keeps paying off.

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[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

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[Chuck Nice]

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[Alex Koshoi]

I'm Jasmine Wilson, and I support StarTalk on Patreon. This is StarTalk with Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

[Gary O'Reilly]

So, Neil, I mean, we're programmed, we're hardwired, but how do we get here? What's the probability of actually us existing, being alive, being born?

[Chuck Nice]

Now, do you mean like having a mother like mine and making it to adulthood, or do you mean like being conceived at all?

[Gary O'Reilly]

Well, let's. Let's start with conception.

[Chuck Nice]

Oh, okay.

[Gary O'Reilly]

And then move through the. Move through the laundry list.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Obviously, humans have no trouble making more humans. Right. 8 billion in the world will put an asymptote probably to 10 billion in the coming decades. So having a person of any kind is not the issue here. We can ask the question, what are the chances of you, specifically you, Gary O'Reilly, having been born? And so we look at your genetic code, and a way to address that is how many possible configurations of that genetic code exist.

[Alex Koshoi]

Wow.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And you're the one that's you.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yes.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay, so you can do that. Now, you know, there's lots of ways that they arrange, and many of them, it makes a human, but it's not entirely viable, or you have like three arms and two heads or whatever. So if you remove all the ones that create oddly different but still living humans. Okay. And so we talk about what we call a normal human, the different ways you can estimate this. But we think it's one in a billion trillion trillion.

[Chuck Nice]

That's not even a number. What you just said does. It's not even a number.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

It's what a kid says.

[Chuck Nice]

Right.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

But there's a lot of configurations. The point is the total number of humans who have ever been born, you can estimate that is about 100 billion. Okay, just. That's a round number. But that's about what it is. So you can ask if 100 billion humans have ever been born yet. We have the capacity to make a billion trillion trillion humans, a vanishingly small fraction of all humans who could ever exist have ever been born.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Interesting.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So what are the chances of you showing up once again in this genetic code? The answer is never. It's never.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay. Because of how much larger the total number of possibilities are compared to anything we will ever create on this earth. So you are alive. You, Gary O'Reilly, are alive against stupendous odds. And I take the posture in the book that because of this, life should be cherished.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Agreed.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And by the way, even if you did show up again in the genetic code, there's no reason to think it would be you. No, it would look exactly like you. But we've done these experiments. They're called twins. We have identical DNA, and you're not the same person. You have independent thoughts. Okay. You even have different fingerprints. Turns out. So the clone experiment doesn't require a machine to wonder how that's going to turn out. People said we shouldn't have clone machines because we'll clone people for their organs. And I'm thinking, do we do that with twins today? Do we. Do we purposefully have twins to take out their org?

[Chuck Nice]

No.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Why would we behave any differently with a cloning machine than we do in the presence of twins that already walk among us? Point is, you're never going to get another Gary. And so, armed with that information, that cosmic. That scientifically informed cosmic perspective, we should treat life as the most cherished thing on Earth. And not enough people do, leading to all manner of misery and bloodshed and war. And in this world, and I wonder if people really knew the statistics of this. If we treat each other more kindly and more considerably than we do.

[Chuck Nice]

Depends on how much you like war and bloodshed, you know.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Oh, some people.

[Chuck Nice]

Some people are into that, you know.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Not in their own bloodshed. Right.

[Chuck Nice]

No, that's the point. Yeah, of course not. It's so funny you're such a scientist because you actually went at that from the DNA configuration perspective, which I find fascinating because I thought about this, like, I think everybody thinks, like, you know, could there ever be another me? Or how many, like. Like, what did it take for me to get here? And I looked up the average number of viable sperm in an ejaculate, which is somewhere around 200 million.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah, yeah. Half a billion, typically.

[Chuck Nice]

Some somewhere around there, or it could be. Yeah, somewhere. And that means that for just me.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

In that one batch, you're 1 in 200 million.

[Chuck Nice]

I'm 1 in 200 million. Just in that one little batch. Forget the other batches that we don't even want to say what happened to them. You know, I'm just saying, like, you know, dad was once a teenager is all I'm saying.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

He was 117.

[Chuck Nice]

But that alone gives you an idea of just how hard it is for A human being to come to existence.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Right. And that's another angle that probability takes you into the rarity of who you are as an individual.

[Chuck Nice]

Wow. Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So, yeah. Gary, did I hit all the points you were looking for?

[Chuck Nice]

Yeah.

[Gary O'Reilly]

I mean, the thing is, if we go and do eggs, every single one, we are going to be here for another day.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So, Gary, where else are we going to take this?

[Gary O'Reilly]

All right, so we look at our everyday lives and without realizing it, we are calculating, as we've discussed, and it's kind of like baked into a number of things. We are living our lives online. Some people conduct a whole part of their life online. They'll have maybe a dozen, 10 or so online accounts, which they manage, which means passwords, which means protection, which means security, all those things. And the probability of all the bad stuff, probability of it being okay. So I think what we need to do is speak to someone who's really at that cutting edge of cybersecurity. And for that we have our dear friends at bitdefender, the cybersecurity experts, and we have Alex Koshoi. I do believe that's how you pronounce it. If got it wrong, I'll stand in a corner. He is their chief security strategist. So this, this guy is a guy who doesn't just try and look after things. He will go after botnets with Europol or Interpol and bring them down. They're on a large scale level as well as the personal level. So there's a whole different range of how they operate, which I think could be very fascinating and add another facet to how probabilities are entwined into our lives.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah, because lately when I choose a password, it tries to tell me whether it's a good password or a bad password. And presumably there's some risk factor calculated to assess that. Otherwise why would it know anything at all?

[Chuck Nice]

Like 1234 is a bad password.

[Gary O'Reilly]

I mean, there's information that you have, right, that's in the public domain. For instance, your birthday. Maybe the probability of something bad happening is greater. So we need to speak to that expert. And Neil here is Alex.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Alex, hey. Welcome to StarTalk.

[Alex Koshoi]

Hi, Neil. Hi guys. Thank you for being here.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

You have the bad assest title of anybody ever.

[Alex Koshoi]

It's made up. Nobody wanted just made up.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Give me the title again. Chief what?

[Alex Koshoi]

Chief Security Strategist.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Chief Security Strategist.

[Gary O'Reilly]

We should salute, shouldn't we?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So, Alex, let me start with a couple of questions here. The word risk is related to probability and statistics. People think they understand risk. Generally they don't. Or they. What they do understand is not the full story, typically, but they're making decisions about their lives, about their health, their wealth, and their security based on their understanding of risk. So, Alex, in what way does the probability of a cyber attack fold into your decisions and your job?

[Alex Koshoi]

Yeah, this is. As you were talking earlier, because I've been listening. The probability of somebody being attacked, I would say it's biased from my perspectives, is 100%. Everybody will be hacked or attacked or scammed at one point or another. But we also did a study a few years back, and all the respondents in total, like 76% of them said, I don't think somebody will target me. I don't have enough money. Why would I be of any interest? Super false. That's not how things are going in the cybercrime industry. They're practically attacking everybody. And it's probability and percents of who actually says and accepts that link and clicks on that button and does the next step. So I'm pretty sure, Gary, Neil, Chuck, you've been targeted by a scam at least once in the past two years. I put $10,000 on that.

[Chuck Nice]

Okay, yeah, of course.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Can I have that $10,000?

[Chuck Nice]

I've actually targeted people in scams myself.

[Gary O'Reilly]

But the thing is, there's a suffic sophistication to the scam because if someone comes in and this has happened to me, they take a very small amount to begin with, and if you don't notice it and let it skip through your bank statement, they come back in and go grab.

[Alex Koshoi]

No, there's a. There's a. There's an upgrade to that. So they tell you you can invest in this particular business. You put like, you know, $10 and you receive in return $50. And then they tell you if you put more, you'll get more. So you put 10 grand, nothing comes back.

[Gary O'Reilly]

How about that?

[Chuck Nice]

Wow.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay, so it's a con game. It's not just a cyber attack. All in cyber. There's. Somebody has to communicate with you correct in your confidence. And then. So this is just another con game, then it's a shell game.

[Gary O'Reilly]

You know, you're moving those shells around and there's a. Whatever the stone underneath it is.

[Alex Koshoi]

But all these things happen now in the cyber world. So about WhatsApp, Telegram, Instagram, Facebook, things that you actually use every day. And these platforms are actually challenging you into spending more and more hours in front of them. So when the scammer shows up in your platform, you Already believe that. This has already been vouched. It has been like checked if it's safe or not. So you already have like a 50% bias to do it right, to fall for it.

[Gary O'Reilly]

So our familiarity with these platforms, with our time spent on a screen, that familiarity breeds the complacency, Is that what you're saying?

[Chuck Nice]

I'm sorry, guys, I hate to interrupt, but as you can see, I gotta answer this call. It's potential spam.

[Jasmine Wilson]

How about that?

[Chuck Nice]

So you know that's it's just coming in right now. So you know that.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Hilarious.

[Chuck Nice]

Clearly that's a scam of somebody trying to get something from me.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yeah. The idea is that when you received like an anonymous call from a number you don't know or an email from somebody you don't really know, you're like, yeah, it's probably a scam. I'm going to ignore it. Like, you have your phone with potential scam. But when you receive these ads directly through a platform that you trust, you've been using it for years, the chances of you being biased and ignore Neil, as you're saying, the probability of being scammed, you pass the bias are so much higher. Like, oh, so I received this ad on Instagram to buy a ticket to some concert. Okay, maybe Taylor Swift, because it's super in the news right now and it's so much cheaper than the actual prices. And it's on this Instagram or Facebook or whatever, you'll buy it.

[Chuck Nice]

Oh, wow.

[Alex Koshoi]

And if you read the news, it's about at least a million or more on every concert.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

A million dollars?

[Alex Koshoi]

Yep.

[Gary O'Reilly]

On every concert.

[Alex Koshoi]

Per country. Per country. Per concert. Yeah.

[Chuck Nice]

That's a very good business.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yep.

[Gary O'Reilly]

So now a lot of bands, a lot of bands use one particular outlet.

[Alex Koshoi]

Spend our times doing PhDs and research.

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[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Get burger.

[Unknown]

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[Chuck Nice]

So can I ask, why do they want your emails? Like, I get a lot of emails from. I just delete them because there's either nothing in the body or it's a link. And I'm like, okay, everybody who knows me knows I'm not opening any links. So I just. I just delete it. Why would you want to get my email list? You hear people say, oh, I got hacked. Don't you know my email list got hacked? What is the value in an email list?

[Alex Koshoi]

Okay, so if I get a single email address, okay, I can search known databases of passwords associated with that email address.

[Chuck Nice]

Oh, my God.

[Alex Koshoi]

Companies or other leaked databases. Okay, so I have your email address and now I have a list of passwords that you use on different websites. Oh, what? I can go further.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Anyone else scared right now with those passwords?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Dude, you're freaking us. Alex.

[Chuck Nice]

Oh, my God. Alex, this is terrible. Shut up. Now.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

I don't want to hear anything more from you. I'd rather live in my blissful.

[Alex Koshoi]

If you want, you can give me your email addresses and I can do this search for you.

[Gary O'Reilly]

No, no, no, no, no, no, you can't. You've already said trust me. Right now you want my email address.

[Chuck Nice]

So wait a minute. First they get your email, then they get the passwords. And what else can they do? I mean, what's the next step?

[Alex Koshoi]

Well, there are many steps later on because I can see if these passwords are still working. So getting into your various accounts, I can also see if you have the same password to a different email address that I don't know about, like your business email or your Yahoo email that you used 10 years ago and you didn't change a password. And I can see all your previous girlfriends from when you are 17 how about that? There are so many possibilities. If you work in a company and email and passwords work, I can use those to connect to your, I don't know, VPN account, launch a ransomware attack, make some billions out of it.

[Chuck Nice]

Okay, mental note, change all email passwords, Alex.

[Alex Koshoi]

Okay?

[Chuck Nice]

Every password I must change.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Change it every day.

[Chuck Nice]

Every day.

[Gary O'Reilly]

We see hacks, we see data leaks and breaches, and it seems to be one a week almost. And I know you do these, you fight these, these bad actors daily and thank God that people like you are out there. But are we not now kind of desensitized and people are to the point where it's going to happen, so what the hell have we lost that sensitivity to the impact that this could make?

[Alex Koshoi]

Yes, but not with the right mindset for this conclusion. Because, yes, there are news of cyber attacks literally every day. So when I wake up and read the news, at least one hack per day, right? So people are reading this and they're like, yada, yada, yada, yada, not going to happen to me. That's unfortunately the bias and the conclusion of having being desensitized by this news. And when it happens, and I've been talking to hundreds of victims, they're like, I had no idea this is going to happen to me.

[Chuck Nice]

You know, I just came up with an idea that I'm sure somebody else has had to have. But why isn't there a service where I subscribe, I have a master password, but then that service changes my password on a daily basis and all I need to do is have the 1Password to get into them.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yes, these services exist. They don't change your password every day because you don't have to do that.

[Chuck Nice]

Okay.

[Alex Koshoi]

It's recommended to change your password, I would say maybe every three months, the password that you use on these accounts. But these password managers, this is how they're called. They will do what? When you subscribe to a service, you don't have to think about, okay, what password should I use? Should it be long, short numbers? So these are going to suggest a password, they're going to save it for you. You don't even need to know it. And every time you need to log into that service, the password manager will fill in the password for you. And some of the browsers already have this functionality built in, so that's fine. There are other dedicated software that they're going to keep this passwords list super protected with super encryption. But yes, the idea is that you remember one single master password and everything Else is being taken care of. Because for us every, you know, regular people, let's be honest. Okay, so now in 2024, we might have an education of this, but I bet you we have accounts that have been created in 2010. We stopped using them in 2012. They're still active. The passwords are still poor. I don't know. 1, 2, 3, 4, for instance. And there, and there is information in there that can still cause us trouble if it goes out.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Oh, I've got a different angle here. If password hacking occurs because someone gets access to a file of previous passwords, then they're not actually decoding your password. No, they're not actually figuring out your password from scratch. Correct. So why is there any difference at all between a simple password and a complex password? If they're not decoding your password for its complexity?

[Alex Koshoi]

That is correct. And that's the other reason why you should have a complex password. Because there are different ways into finding out a person's password for a particular account. One of them would be, you know, just brute forcing, trying all the passwords. Another technique would be password spraying, which means trying the most common passwords on a particular account that are known to be used by people. And in many cases, this actually function because for particular languages, statistically, people use similar passwords. Test 1, 4. That's quite similar. From 1 to 9. That's quite similar. I know in 2024 sounds stupid. Even nowadays we find these passwords.

[Chuck Nice]

In reality, my password is password. They'll never figure that one out.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Somebody like from like the military, like a high end grade in the military, saying that I had a very simple password because I thought they will never try that out, considering my job title. It was a fake assumption.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Do you run algorithms based on the probability of a certain set of characters?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Would you have a language, is that right?

[Alex Koshoi]

Not necessarily the probability set of languages, but also, but by words in that particular language. And also there are billions or hundreds of billions of passwords that already are in the public space or in the public domain from previous hacks. So you can make a statistics on that. They can say, hey, 20% of the people use this password. Let's try that on first.

[Chuck Nice]

Wow. And chances are it'll work, huh?

[Alex Koshoi]

We know probability, criminals know probability. So they will do their math first.

[Chuck Nice]

Damn. Wow. You want to talk about using math for terrible purposes?

[Alex Koshoi]

You can use it for many things. You know that joke with a very important mathematician that received the Nobel Prize and he had to fly to get it, and he was so afraid to fly because he thought somebody would be with a bomb in the plane and he wanted to reach the destination. But eventually at the event, he shows up. Everybody knew about his fear. So they asked him, like, hey, we knew your fear about a bomb exploding. So why are you here? How did you come? Like, well, I took a bomb with me. What were the odds of two bombs being in the same place? Well, you can see that joke.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

No, all that joke is it's older than tsa, Right. Because. Yeah, exactly where they checked for bombs.

[Gary O'Reilly]

So, Alex, we're in October 2024 right now. But last month there was the National Institute of Standards and Technology, that's the US national institute that stated. And this was an article that was written in Forbes. So it's a reputable news outlet. But complicated passwords can make you less safe.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yes.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Now we're talking about how to make complicated different characters and different cases and numbers and all sorts of things. But why? Now complication is an issue because Otherwise it's password. 1, 2, 3.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yeah. There are two ways of defining a complicated password. And one of the way is actually okay. The other way is not really that okay. So by complicating a password by making it longer with alpha characters, numbers and everything else that's going to make it. That's going to make the password super hard to remember. So unless you're using a password manager, it means that you're going to have to write it down and so on. Which basically sets in the mindset of just giving up, just giving up, putting the same password because it took you so long to create it, or just string them down to make it easier for you. However, you can make long passwords without doing all these characters unless the website or the service forces you to by having a passphrase, I went to the moon and back in a car. That's pretty safe. Okay. Or even a longer phrase, something that's easier to remember. But I think NIST's and also our recommendation is to use a password manager that's going to make your life a whole easier and also use a multifactor identification or two factor authentication. So besides the password, you can use something else or even eliminate the password at all. You can, you can use all these things. You're going to have a better peace of mind by that.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah. In fact, I have a couple of websites that don't use passwords.

[Alex Koshoi]

Exactly.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

It's two factor authentication.

[Alex Koshoi]

And don't you love going to those websites?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yes, it's beautiful.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Okay, so Neil has quite A distinctive voice, and he's in the public domain. Are we now at the point where we no longer use voice recognition as the password?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

That was, like, in style for, like, six months a couple of years ago. Right.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Are we out of that phase because there's just too much AI come along to replicate?

[Alex Koshoi]

Yeah. I don't think voice recognition can be still considered a way of authentication and even face recognition. That's not going to work any longer. I was in a meeting with some of my colleagues and one of them was in vacation, but he was showing up in the meeting on Zoom. It was the fake AI. Somebody was playing a joke, which was very nice because he seemed a bit younger. He probably had photos from a previous training, but that was. It was scary for us because we know the possibilities, but it was very nice to have.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. You just said you had a business meeting and someone duped you into thinking an AI version of an attendee.

[Alex Koshoi]

Yes, but it was a colleague. It was a colleague. However, there is. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was on purpose. We knew what's going on. We were just analyzing it and it's like, oh, this is so cool. He looks so close by. But I remember reading an article quite last week about a scam in China where somebody paid $55 million because he was in a Zoom meeting with, I don't know, 13 or 14 other people from the organization. His manager, CEO, CFO. Everybody was saying, it's safe. He did it. He was the only real person in there. Everybody else was deep fake.

[Chuck Nice]

Oh, my God.

[Gary O'Reilly]

That's Bond villain badness.

[Alex Koshoi]

That's the level we're talking to him.

[Chuck Nice]

That is. Yeah.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

I have a question. And plus, we got to sort of think of landing this plane. In the old days, a computer virus was really just mischief. People just trying to see if they could harass you in one way or another. There wasn't much financial motive behind it.

[Alex Koshoi]

Correct.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

And so it was a nuisance. Now, this kind of hacking always seems to have a financial objective. What is the total money earned by bad actors?

[Alex Koshoi]

So I would say a total would be what? A total last year was $1.5 trillion.

[Chuck Nice]

What?

[Gary O'Reilly]

There's a team there.

[Alex Koshoi]

We're talking about ransomware and other scams. Yeah, these numbers vary. I mean, if last year was 1.5, this year can easily go to 2.

[Chuck Nice]

Or 3 trillion dollars.

[Alex Koshoi]

We're talking about scams that target consumers.

[Chuck Nice]

Right?

[Gary O'Reilly]

I mean, that's. That's a national debt for some countries, yes.

[Alex Koshoi]

Oh, great. Like I said, these are just money. That are earned by cybercriminals. These are not money that count in your financial loss as a victim. Because if you're a company, when you pay, that's one number. But you also have a loss in.

[Chuck Nice]

You have a loss of productivity. You have a loss. Exactly. You know. Yeah. So I. God, I can't believe I've been telling my son that he should continue to study to be a biochemist. What the heck?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

He's in the wrong business.

[Chuck Nice]

He's in the wrong business.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

But I got one other thing I have to, like, just get clear in my head. So that means in your business, you're worth one and a half trillion dollars to this world. If you can prevent that.

[Chuck Nice]

If you can prevent it. Right.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay, that's fact one.

[Alex Koshoi]

Fact two, they would protect everybody, which is not the case.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay, but here's my thing. If someone retains you to protect their organization, then they're putting all their trust in you. So maybe the organization won't get hacked. But suppose you get hacked, you're a single point failure of that entire system because we're all entrusting you in this one. What do you call bottleneck of trust?

[Alex Koshoi]

Yes, that is called supply chain attack. So basically, when you're targeting a customer, you can actually target all the software that they use in their organization. So we have. If we have a vulnerability that's going to affect most of our customers. Yes, that is a correct statement.

[Chuck Nice]

So now why aren't you just. Why are you a good guy?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Why don't you become Dr. Evil?

[Chuck Nice]

What the heck is your problem?

[Alex Koshoi]

Yes, we get that. Questions a lot. You know, you can make a lot more money on the dark side, but then again, how will you sleep at night?

[Chuck Nice]

Not on a very expensive mattress, that's how.

[Alex Koshoi]

That is correct.

[Chuck Nice]

Because I'm part of a trillion dollar industry that I created.

[Gary O'Reilly]

So, Alex, you're chief security strategist. Yes. How much of your strategy is, oh, this is a supply chain bottleneck. We have to get ahead of a story. How many stories are you getting ahead of rather than putting out fires?

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Oh, good point.

[Chuck Nice]

Interesting.

[Alex Koshoi]

I think it's a equal amount, I would say, because, yes, there are some situations that you can actually prevent because you thought about it, you knew that would happen and you make some plan. But then by working with your customers and victims and having a lot of conversations with law enforcement, they're going to come up with stories that you were like, whoa, I'm an engineer. I never thought of that scam. So you start to figure out, you know, what can you build from a technological point of view to prevent that? So I would say it's a fair, equal amount.

[Chuck Nice]

So you know what? I think we would be remiss if we didn't leave our viewers and listeners having you at our disposal at least one or two of the top things they should do to protect themselves from a cybersecurity incident.

[Alex Koshoi]

So we were discussing about passwords. So that would be like the main thing. Get the password manager, make him take care of your passwords, and try to remember all those accounts that I'm pretty sure are connected to your present accounts, but you no longer use them, they're still active, they're still there. They can still back hacked if they're not already.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Right.

[Alex Koshoi]

And second, still for consumers, minimize your footprint, your Internet footprint. Don't post stupid stuff.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Okay, now you tell me.

[Alex Koshoi]

I'm pretty happy. I'm a dinosaur 41 years, so I don't have online all the stupid shit I did.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Oh, don't post stupid things that you did.

[Alex Koshoi]

Exactly.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Oh, I got it. No, no, no. I don't do that.

[Alex Koshoi]

And for. For enterprises, there's a wide range of tips and tricks, but the idea is that since ransomware is the number one threat right now, make sure you have backups and make sure you have systems that are going to log things that happen in your organization. So when we come in and say, let's see how you were hacked. If you have logs, we're going to tell you how. If you don't, we're going to say, well, it happened.

[Chuck Nice]

Wow. Wow.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

All right. Well, those are lessons for the ages. Really? Actually, for the current age, six months.

[Chuck Nice]

They're lessons for the next couple of years.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Yeah, maybe even that.

[Chuck Nice]

Maybe even that.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

So, Alex, great having you on StarTalk Special Edition on a topic that we all care about. Gary, thanks for putting that together.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Pleasure. Thank you, Alex.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Good. All right.

[Chuck Nice]

And Chuck, thanks for doing nothing.

[Gary O'Reilly]

Someone hugged Chuck.

[Neil DeGrasse Tyson]

Chuck, thanks for showing up. Okay. This is Neil Degrasse Tyson, your personal astrophysicist. As always, I bid you to keep looking up.

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