In "Crime: Numbers, Narratives and Nuance" our host Miles Fletcher speaks with Nick Stripe, Joint Head of Crime Statistics at the ONS and John Rentoul, leading commentator on crime, policing, and the media, about the challenges in interpreting crime data.

Transcript

MILES FLETCHER

Hello and welcome to another episode of Statistically Speaking – the official podcast on the UK's Office for National Statistics. The time we're returning to the scene of a major statistical topic we've touched on before but amid a new and sometimes highly polarised public debate, one we think fully bears further investigation: how best to understand and interpret the crime figures produced and published by ONS.

Helping us with our enquiries is Nick Stripe, Joint Head of Crime Statistics at the ONS. It's his job to assemble and present the complex statistical picture of crime revealed in two very large and sometimes conflicting data sources. We also have an independent witness in the highly experiences shape of John Rentoul, Chief Political Commentator for the Independent and visiting professor at Kings College London. He'll be talking about the use and possible abuse of crime figures in the media and political debate. Are the statistics and those who produce them doing enough to enable the public to understand properly the prevalence and nature of crime in our society today?

Nick, a big question to start with, some people think crime is going down, other people insist it's going up. Who's right?

NICK STRIPE

Well, it's a question that sounds simple, doesn't it? And it's a question I get asked quite a lot. But if you think about the concept of crime, you soon realize that it covers a really huge range of actions and behaviours. If I was a chief constable trying to reduce crime in my area, I'd want to know what kinds of crimes are causing the biggest problems. So, is it theft, robbery, violence? Domestic abuse? sexual offenses? Maybe it's fraud. And even if you tell me it's theft, then there's still a broad spectrum. So, is that burglary from houses? Is it theft of vehicles? Is it people having things snatched off them in the street? Is there a new thing about theft from doorsteps? Each of those types of theft would have its own trends, patterns and challenges. So, what I'm really saying is that whilst I understand your desire for a single answer, the real stories are in the detail of those different crime types.

But I will come back to your question, is crime going up or down? Broadly speaking, I would say we're experiencing much less crime now than we did 20 or 30 years ago. Many crime types have been declining at a fairly steady rate since the mid 1990s and in more recent years, probably since we started to emerge from the pandemic, crime levels have broadly flattened out at that lower level.

But some types of crime are rising now, some are still falling, and some are changing in ways that reflect shifts in society, shifts in technology and shifts in policing.

That's the complex and highly nuanced picture, and it's the one that is designed to best serve those who make policies around crime, those who try to contain crime, those who try to fight it?

That's right, Miles. And it's a picture that we get from drawing on several different data sources. There are two main ones. One is police recorded crime, and the second one is our independent survey of crime across England and Wales. And then we can use other data sources to provide richness for certain crime types, or to triangulate what we're seeing in those main data sources. And when we pull all of that together, we try and give a rich, nuanced, accurate picture for policy and policing.

That's the aim of the statistics, but when it comes to public debate and public perceptions, do we risk misleading people by not being able to come up with a single barometer of crime? You can't go on the ONS website and see whether overall offending is up or down for example, or is that a completely pointless exercise?

Well as I said, different crime types will have different things acting on them at any one point in time. But what we can do, for example through the crime survey, that has measured what I'm going to call traditional types of crime experienced by us as the public. So that's things like theft, that's things like violence, that's things like criminal damage, and in the last 10 years or so, that also includes fraud. And when we look at those types of crimes, we can see that, if you want a single figure, the numbers have come down. And that's when I say that over the last 30 years, there's been a big reduction in crime. If you take violence, theft and criminal damage, about 30 years ago, four in 10 of us, about 40% of us, every year would experience one of those types of crime. Now it's one in 10 of us. So, I can give you that picture for certain types of crime, but there are different ways of measuring and different data sources are better for certain types of crime, so coming up with that overall number is actually quite difficult.

John, when it comes to political and media debate around crime, there are no simple answers, and yet those are to arenas where we want simple answers.

JOHN RENTOUL

Well, I think Nick did give a fairly simple answer, which is that if you ask people an open-ended question - have you been the victim of crime over the past 12 months - then the number of people saying yes to that question has gone down very dramatically over the last 30 years. So, in that very simple sense, crime has gone down hugely over the past 30 years.

But of course, people don't feel that, because that requires comparative memory...collective memory over a long period of time, and people are worried about what they read in the papers and what they see on social media. So, people, just as they always think that Britain is becoming a more unequal society, they always think that crime is rising, and it's very difficult to contradict that with simple statistics.

Isn't that because there's always some aspect of crime, some type of crime that's always rising and it's opposition politicians, headline writers, particularly...of course you'll find lots of sophisticated, nuanced debate in the media...But those who write the headlines like to seize on the negative, don't they? Bad news sells. And you can see how people get these impressions because it's just the scary stuff they're hearing about.

Well, possibly, although I think it's probably deeper than that. I think it's just human nature to feel fearful about the threats in society and the way of dealing with that psychologically is to assume that those threats are worse now than they used to be.

When you ask people has crime increased, they're not really giving you a statistical answer. They just say yes I'm afraid of various sorts of crime. And, you're quite right, the sorts of things that stick in people's minds are phone thefts and shoplifting, the sorts of things that get highlighted on social media all the time.

As they used to say at the end of Crime Watch every week, these types of crimes are rare, don't have nightmares. Yet, that's no good if you've had your phone nicked or witnessed a shoplifting incident.

That's right, and what's interesting about those two is that witnessing a shoplifting incident wouldn't be recorded in the crime survey because you personally are not the victim of that crime. So that's an example of an incident that has gone up, but that wouldn't be captured in the survey statistics, although having your phone nicked is something we probably would remember.

And how responsible would you say our political leaders have been over the years? How responsible perhaps are they being now in the way that they present crime statis...