
Hosted by Stephan Livera · EN

Even as ETFs and MicroStrategy sell into weakness, natural spot demand has kept Bitcoin from collapsing in what may be the shallowest bear market on record. The real test now is time pain, the grinding boredom that forces out remaining weak hands after the initial price capitulation.James Check, founder of Checkonchain.com, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. His framework distinguishes price pain from the subsequent time pain that historically marks the true bottom.Checkmate examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, why 53K realized price now acts as a floor, the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies, and why most copycat strategies will fail in the months ahead.Timestamps:00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA28:30 — The AI Trade30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail?37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle49:05 — High-Yield Trap?Links: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_https://x.com/_checkonchaincheckonchain.comhttps://charts.checkonchain.comhttp://newsletter.checkonchain.com/Stephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack#StephanLivera #StephanLiveraPodcast #Bitcoin #BearMarket #OnChain #Checkmate #TimePain #RealizedPrice #BitcoinTreasury #MarketCycles

Radar integrates self-custodial Bitcoin payments directly into Signal's messaging network, eliminating the need for separate apps or custodians when sending value to contacts.Seth for Privacy, from the Cake Wallet team, explains how Radar targets everyday users rather than Bitcoin maximalists by preserving Signal's privacy model while adding instant Lightning-enabled transfers via Spark.The discussion covers seamless account migration from Signal, offline payment receives, wallet risk limits for non-critical funds, and the decision to pursue VC funding through a separate entity.Timestamps:00:49 — Why Messaging & Payments Stay Separate03:34 — Migrate Signal Account Without Losing Data08:18 — Send Bitcoin Instantly With One Tap10:10 — Receive Payments Completely Offline11:40 — Bitcoin for Everyone, Not Just Bitcoiners14:21 — Don't Put Life Savings in Hot Wallet17:10 — Signal Can't See Your Bitcoin Payments19:13 — Donating Monthly to Signal Foundation22:48 — Radar Takes VC Path Unlike CakeLinks: Radar Chat: https://radar.chat@SethForPrivacy: https://x.com/sethforprivacyCake Wallet: https://cakewallet.comStephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

Payjoin delivers transaction batching driven by real economic activity rather than waiting for pool participants, while also cutting fees through direct net settlement between counterparties.Dan Gould, maintainer of Payjoin DevKit, explains how the new async protocol and oblivious HTTP relay change what is practical for mobile wallets today.The conversation covers current live deployments in Bull Bitcoin and Cake Wallet, remaining fingerprinting heuristics beyond common input ownership, the multi-party roadmap, and how developers can integrate the library with under ten thousand lines of code.Timestamps:00:00 — Payjoin DevKit01:46 — Live Payjoins in Wallets Today04:25 — No Waiting for Batch Pools06:14 — Payjoin Works on Mobile Phones08:29 — Oblivious HTTP Hides Your IP10:05 — Fingerprinting Still an Issue?14:02 — Net Settlement Saves Big Fees15:36 — Multi-Party Payjoin Roadmap17:10 — Build Payjoin in a WeekendLinks: https://x.com/brian_trollz/status/2069465912143749462 https://github.com/payjoin/payjoin.org/pull/143 https://payjoindevkit.org/ https://x.com/bitgouldStephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

A South African circular economy is already running real payments on Fedimint with seven guardians on Start9 boxes. Users send eCash with zero fees inside the federation and feel the same simplicity as Wallet of Satoshi—except the custody is local and the privacy model is different.Hermann and Joshi explain how non-technical guardians set up 5-of-7 multisig, how the Conduit wallet hides complexity, and why Fedimint beats Liquid on on-chain integration and local trust. They also cover Lightning gateway economics and why small federations may beat one global Spark.Bitcoiners exploring Lightning, eCash privacy, and circular economies in emerging markets should listen.Key Takeaways:Seven-guardian 5-of-7 multisig on Start9 now runs daily in South Africa with high reliability.Users inside the same federation enjoy true zero-fee eCash transfers.Conduit wallet offers a lighter, payments-focused alternative to Fedi with regional QR support.Migration between federations is smooth with parallel running and user-controlled timing.Fedimint severs the transaction graph for privacy while Liquid hides amounts but retains the graph.Local guardians reduce the “custodial guilt” felt when onboarding users to foreign services.Lightning gateways can become profitable side businesses with only a few hours of monthly work.Geographic spread of guardians improves resilience against local internet or power outages.Onboarding still requires one extra step—joining the federation—after app install.Fedimint is on-chain native, allowing direct receive and send without intermediate swaps.Timestamps:00:00 - Fedimint Goes Live in South Africa01:48 - Magic: Pay Across Africa04:15 - Onboard Users Without Custodial Guilt08:08 - Zero Fees Shock Rural Users11:04 - Liquid vs Fedimint Privacy Showdown13:32 - Many Small Federations Or Global Spark16:09 - Non-Techies Run Bitcoin Guardians Easily18:14 - 5-of-7 Multisig Survives Two Failures20:53 - Fedimint QR Is a 5-of-7 Multisig24:05 - Gateway: Profitable Hobby in Hours/Month31:06 - Trust Locals Over Anonymous Custodians34:55 - Spread Guardians to Survive OutagesLinks: Bitcoin Ekasi: https://bitcoinekasi.orgFedimint: https://fedimint.orgConduit Wallet: https://joschisan.github.io/conduit/SLP651 with Eric & Joschi: https://stephanlivera.com/651Follow Hermann: https://x.com/vryfokkenouFollow Joschi: https://x.com/joschisanbtcStephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

In this episode, NVK rejoins me to discuss the latest developments in Bitcoin self-custody, hardware wallets, and privacy solutions, providing valuable insights for enthusiasts and practitioners alike.Timestamps:00:00 Quarterly Self-Custody Update01:28 Sparrow Wallet Update & Silent Payments05:41 Coldcard MK5 & Recent Firmware Updates07:53 The Evolution of Co-signing & MuSig211:58 Liana & Nunchuk Wallet Updates17:16 Cove, BlueWallet & Mobile Wallet Progress19:09 BitKey V2 & Pragmatic Self-Custody22:55 Open Hardware Wallet Project Updates27:15 Merchant Payments & Bitcoin Commerce31:19 Stable Balance Wallets & Self-Custody36:38 Hardware Wallet Security Updates39:07 ARCA: Personal Data Haven ExplainedLinks: Stephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

In this episode, Alejandro De La Torre, CEO of @DMND_Sv2, joins me to discuss the mining of Bitcoin block 955,318 — the first known Stratum V2 block on mainnet.We break down what happened, the benefits of Stratum V2, how it improves efficiency and we talk about SV2 adoption more broadly.A great episode for anyone who wants to understand where Bitcoin mining is heading.Timestamps:00:00 The First Stratum V2 Block: What Happened?01:08 How Does Miner Transaction Selection Change Bitcoin Mining?01:58 Can SV2 Mining Pools Still Reject Blocks Though?03:19 Can Miners Easily Switch Pools with Stratum V2?04:45 Major Mining Pools Joining the Stratum V2 Working Group05:40 Hardware & Firmware Support for Stratum V207:43 Is Miner Interest in Stratum V2 Growing?09:00 The Biggest Benefits of Stratum V2 for Miners10:21 How Does DMND's SLICE Payout System Compare to FPPS?11:50 What Needs to Happen for Stratum V2 to Become the Standard?13:21 Should Miners Start Building Their Own Block Templates?Links: Alejandro’s announcement post: https://x.com/bitentrepreneur/status/2070131040992035235DMND Pool: https://www.dmnd.workAlejandro on X: https://x.com/bitentrepreneurStephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

In this episode, Adrian Morris joins the show to discuss Bitcoin Treasury Companies. We explore whether MSTR and STRC are over, sustainable mNAV premiums, the impact of leverage, the right way to calculate mNAV, how many such companies can realistically exist, and how this space evolves through bull and bear markets.Timestamps:00:00 What are Bitcoin Treasury Skeptics Getting Wrong?03:55 Is it over for STRC? Par vs Peg06:30 The level of correlation to Bitcoin price07:10 Critiques of STRC marketing?09:02 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Correlation10:50 Should Strategy Do Something About STRC?13:55 Is it a waiting game?14:40 Is the bitcoin treasury risk mispriced? When is a premium justified?19:26 Leverage or Amplification embedded in the structure24:10 Operating or Financing Flows to Get Bitcoin?26:15 mNAV29:12 Thoughts on CEBE Analysis32:30 Different forms of mNAV36:12 Sentiment’s role is amplified40:32 “Just Tread Water and Survive Until the Bull”42:47 Will the Correlation to Bitcoin Price increase over time?46:18 Growth Opportunities: Mergers and Acquisitions 48:23 The Bitcoin Treasury Model - How Replicable is it?51:50 Where are we in this cycle?53:42 AI Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Investors58:55 Is AI being overbuilt? 1:01:40 Open Weights and Local AI?Links: Adrian on X: https://x.com/_AdrianTrue North: https://tnorth.com/Bitcoin For Corporations: https://bitcoinforcorporations.com/Stephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

In this episode, Craig Raw returns to discuss Sparrow’s Silent Payments and Frigate integration, where multisig UX stands in 2026, his thoughts on building Bitcoin wallet software solo, and the ongoing challenges of distribution and platform risk.We discuss:Silent Payments and their impact on privacy and UXPlatform risks and the importance of pragmatic developmentStandards and interoperability in Bitcoin walletsThe future of multi-sig UX and hardware wallet supportCryptographic innovations like Frigate for scalable scanningTimestamps:00:00 - Intro and Apple’s Walled Garden05:30 - Pragmatism in Bitcoin06:30 - Silent Payments: A New Era for Bitcoin Transactions08:40 - Biggest Challenge in Bitcoin Privacy today12:03 - Why Address Re Use is so prevalent today13:40 - Contrasting Silent Payments and Lightning Address16:00 - The Benefits of Silent Payments Far Outweigh Incremental Complexity19:00 - The Future if the Bitcoin Community Doesn’t Move on this22:45 - Privacy vs Convenience25:40 - Putting SP and Lightning Address together28:30 - The Scanning Challenge for SP and Frigate37:20 - Hardware Reqruirements for Frigate41:00 - Can Hardware Wallets Support SP?49:55 - Bitcoin Multi Sig in 202651:30 - Craig on Miniscript use - Inheritance, Timelocking53:20 - Miniscript refresh privacy concern55:30 - Miniscript for managed solutions59:00 - Multi Sig Quorum Registration1:01:00 - Mixed Vendor Multi Sig setups1:04:00 - Wallet Labelling BIP1:06:44 - Bitcoin Adoption: Balancing Purism and Pragmatism1:09:00 - What to do about bad regulations or laws? 1:12:00 - Could Government Target Silent Payments?1:13:39 - Sustainability of Sparrow Wallet DevelopmentLinks: https://x.com/SparrowWallethttps://x.com/CraigRawsparrowwallet.com Stephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

In this episode, Jesse Schrader (Jestopher), CEO of Amboss, joins us to break down RailsX — their new Lightning-native DEX.We discuss:🔸How traders and liquidity providers use RailsX🔸The costs and benefits for both sides🔸Current Lightning routing volumes and growth trends🔸The state of Lightning yield and how it compares to other players🔸The recent BitGo Lightning Earn partnership🔸A quick update on Magma🔸A high-signal look at where Lightning yield, stablecoins, and institutional adoption are heading.Timestamps:00:00 - What is RailsX? Taproot Assets on your LN node01:09 - The trader end user POV02:45 - USDT by @speed_LN03:50 - What are the trading fees? Trade sizes?06:20 - Liquidity provider POV08:00 - DIY or managed service?09:20 - How much yield do liquidity providers get?10:37 - BitGo Lightning Earn partnership11:23 - The state of Lightning yield today and lightning activity12:37 - Update on Amboss Magma - Liquidity Leasing15:10 - Lightning Volume is Growing Even in a Bear MarketLinks: https://amboss.space/https://amboss.tech/railshttps://amboss.tech/magmahttps://x.com/Jestopher_BTCStephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack

In this urgent 15-minute conversation, Stephan speaks with Ricki Allardice, one of the leaders of the Property Rights Defense Group, about South Africa’s Draft Capital Flow Management Regulations 2026 — the most serious threat to Bitcoin self-custody the country has seen.Ricki breaks down exactly what the draft rules would do to private keys, self-custody, and everyday Bitcoiners, where the process stands right now, and what the community can still do before the 30 June 2026 public comment deadline.Timestamps:(00:00) - Overview of the Regulation Against Self Custody(04:07) - Public Consultation Process (05:49) - Can it be challenged?(07:20) - It’s About Capital Controls(08:02) - AML, Sanctions, FATF (10:46) - What does it mean for Bitcoiners in South Africa?(12:22) - Safety or Security concern here?(14:22) - Call to Action and Support for Legal DefenseLinks: Site: propertyrightsdefense.orgX: https://x.com/PRDG_ZA Donate: https://btcpay386617.lndyn.com/apps/4TcSxV6dNFYzb1DBDthPL89Tjz72/crowdfund?ref=propertyrightsdefense.org Stephan Livera links:Follow me on X: @stephanliveraSubscribe to the podcastSubscribe to Substack